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Forex Forum Archive for 07/07/2014

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Mtl JP 23:33 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

maybe I am not as perceptive of that tool as I should be, it's why I asked
-
Tomorrow starts a new Corp reporting season. Alcoa kicks it off. It could set the tone.

Stocks seem to have priced in a recovering economy so, next, players will probably want to see S&P showing 5% ++ profits to justify the valuations. Else we may see interest rates go down some more. With all that implies on FX.

dc CB 23:15 GMT July 7, 2014
Auctions

As J.Lyons Fund Management concludes...

we’re not suggesting that weather played no part in the weak 1Q GDP number. Perhaps it did.

We simply take exception to the suggestion that a -3% GDP print be written off as a “weather-induced” outlier.

This is particularly so when comparing the figure with historical GDP readings occurring during quarters encompassing the worst weather-related disasters in U.S. history, which generally fared just fine.

Perhaps we’re just not smart enough to understand the nuanced effects that cold weather can have on 3 months of economic activity across 50 states.

But when we see a GDP figure that far outside the norm of even disaster-related quarters, it raises our BS-meter.

Chart Of The Day: The "Weather-Apologist Economist"'s Worst Nightmare

syd sf 22:29 GMT July 7, 2014
morning
Reply   
gbp - short term bots all bought dip in gbp and are selling now @323334

longer term still long

eurcad and euraud saw some longs go in 1.4512/13 and 1.4524

everything else bit of a toss up as data approaches.

audnzd - looks for 10620/50 area... very data dependent though.

GVI Forex john 21:02 GMT July 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



July 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 8. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output, US- 3yr

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output.
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Energy.


GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT July 7, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
TUESDAY  July 8, 2014 
CH CPI
WEDNESDAY July 9, 2014
CN CPI
US  TRY 10-yr
US Fed Minutes
THURSDAY July 10, 2014
AU Employment
CN Trade
GB Trade
GB Bank of England
US Weekly Jobless
TRY TRY 30-yr
FRIDAY July 11, 2014
CA Employment

GVI Forex Blog 20:26 GMT July 7, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
US investors returned from the long weekend in a slightly pessimistic mood. In the absence of any US data, the S&P500 fell to -0.5% currently, US interest rates and the US dollar also lower. Eurozone investor confidence beat estimates, possibly helping the EUR.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 19:41 GMT July 7, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT July 7, 2014
Sluggish Trade to Start Week. Interest Rates and Relative Growth Focal
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output, US- 3yr

EURUSD continues to pivot the 1.3600 line. Relative economic performance suggests the EURUSD SHOULD trade lower over time, but unusual unidentified demand for the EUR has been providing support.

Sluggish Trade to Start Week.Interest Rates and Relative Growth Focal

GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT July 7, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...



dc CB 18:23 GMT July 7, 2014
Auctions

GVI Forex john 15:26 GMT July 7, 2014 - My Profile
Risk On/Off Heat Map: Reply
falling stocks pushing yields on the 10-yr lower.

nw kw 18:07 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Japan declares storm warning as typhoon advances

Non-political July 07, 14:43 UTC+4
Heavy rain is triggering floods and landslides north of Okinawa on the island of Kyushu, where 87,000 people have been told to evacuate

US missile cruiser enters Black Sea — Russian Navy

World July 07, 19:29 UTC+4
The number of NATO ships in the Black Sea has thus increased to seven

http://en.itar-tass.com/non-political/739325

tokyo ginko 17:20 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

lol...good one

Dillon AL 16:40 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Kal you should hit next after viewing your link

SaaR KaL 16:32 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

people don feel ok with Slow Mkts

Slow Market

SaaR KaL 16:16 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Face Book should add this application;

I think there should be a site to get married...where it send you an email to confirm (Both Sides)...5 Bucks and you are good.

At the same time, Same site makes divorce documents...if any side clicks that...Send confirmation to both...2 Bucks and you are good. (Gonna happen anyways)

FB will trade near 5000 Bucks

HK [email protected] 16:10 GMT July 7, 2014
USD/CHF
Reply   


The risk to 0.9030 still around.

GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT July 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Fed Funds Futures July 2015

100% odds +25bp Fed hike
54% odds on 25bp more on top of the 25bp hike

NY JM 16:01 GMT July 7, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Monday book squaring-

Stocks down (market wants to buy stocks)]

Bonds up (market wants to sell bonds)

EURUSD up very slightly up (market except for the die hard bulls want to sell)

USDHPY down (market wants to buy)

GBUSD (and GBP crosses) down (market wants to buy)

No wonder it is a very quiet session

GVI Forex john 15:26 GMT July 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

falling stocks pushing yields on the 10-yr lower.

GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT July 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets remain in a risk-off posture as equities sell-off with the latest U.S. employment report and ECB meeting are row in the rear-view mirror. The EURUSD is  pivoting the 1.3600 level.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are closing narrowly mixed. Yields on the European periphery are up slightly. The German 10-yr bund is 1.26%, +1bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.74%  -1bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.62%,  -2 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are  closing lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:21 GMT July 7, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD tested 1.3600-03 late US on Friday and again since we came in today. Clearly 1.3600 is the pivotal/bias setting level, currently acting as resistance.

1.3598 = 20 day mva
1.3576 = 200 day
1.3570 50 day

dc CB 15:11 GMT July 7, 2014
Auctions



pushing up the Fear index.

GVI Forex Blog 15:11 GMT July 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX markets appear set for summer doldrums. The USD/JPY pair remained within the two yen range since April while the EUR/USD has been confined to a 200-pip range for the past six weeks. It continues to hold right around 1.36.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities take a breather while awaiting earnings

GVI Forex Blog 14:49 GMT July 7, 2014 Reply   
July 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 8. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output, US- 3yr

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 8, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT July 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 8. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output, US- 3yr

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output.
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Energy.


nw kw 14:31 GMT July 7, 2014
Auctions


Q2 2014 Bank of Canada business sales outlook 24 vs 30 exp

dc CB 14:25 GMT July 7, 2014
Auctions
Reply   
POMOs $2.50 - $3.25 billion today, $1.00 - $1.25 billion tomorrow.

Facebook Emotional manipulation in play thru Thurs:
3, 10, 30 Y auctions ...start tues. "Things" will be shown as "bad". Already wacked Gold

nw kw 14:17 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

immigration changes was on bloom for up beat gobs report/
CAD Business Outlook Future Sales is next market monitoring this one to see if usa on good ground for tsx is lagging for now

Livingston nh 14:07 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

The historic level of slack is not much different than today - in fact it may be tighter now in most areas -- if you remove the kids (16 to 20) from the pool (unskilled low wage) the unemployment rate is around 5.2% -- a couple of months ago I posted the unemployment, inflation and interest rates for 20 yrs ago when the Fed was ready to HIKE // the economy is not in crisis and the unemployment rate is normal -- only the FED is out of step and by a lot -- they can't stay like this for even an additional 6 months (G. Wm. Miller syndrome)

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT July 7, 2014
June 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

Frankly, I don't trust the Ivey PMI. I prefer the Markit survey for its stability if nothing else.

GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT July 7, 2014
June 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI continued in correction in June.


GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 7, 2014
June 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)
Reply   
June 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)





ALERT
46.9 vs. n/a exp. vs. 46.2 prev.

RELEASE: Ivey Purchasing Managers Report


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

Plenty of slack in the U.S. labor force will prevent a spike in wages anytime in the foreseeable future, imho.

nw kw 13:43 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

bnn. wages growth for us going spike up and force fed and flat yield/long ftse short s&p

GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT July 7, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   
Net EUR JPY COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details








Click on chart for COT Details


Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

london red 13:30 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

market was late to pick up on uk theme and will hold the ball too long but isnt that always the case.
mpc has prepared the market for early but then slow increases, so you can bet that if we see a nov hike, then we get nothing pre election may 2015 unless we get a real pick up in inflation/wages growth, but even them the mpc is going to want to give any move a few months to gauge its effect, so certainly will make sense to fade anything around the hike.

Dillon AL 13:10 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

Just shows how markets can get ahead of themselves and how CBs can get behind the curve. When the UK does finally hike then one wants to apply sell the fact rule to the trade

GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT July 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.63% -1bp

SaaR KaL 12:41 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Thanks Pat

EURGBP Shorts here till 0.7965
tgt 0.7880 to 0.7820

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:11 GMT July 7, 2014
How to Trade a Summer Forex Market
Reply   
Just because it is summer it does not mean it is not a good time to trade.Here is my view on how to trade this summer's market.

How to Trade a Summer Forex Market

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

JP- you make your own trading decisions. Its your money at risk. We just try to provide some analysis on likely general market direction for top trading currencies. Hope it helps.

Mtl JP 11:48 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

so .. what do we sell and what do we buy
and when ?
tia

GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex



This chart is busier than I would have preferred but I like the comparisons between the GBP, USD, JPY then EUR in that order.

london red 11:02 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

still early days but eurgbp set to make a bullish outside day, this will give euro some legs or certainly make downside progress limited. we may need to see 13635-75 before lower again. eurgbp has been a one way bet and quite a crowded one but probably too early for it to reverse entirely, so 7950-75 is possible, more unlikely unless data surprises in uk or europe this week.

london red 10:58 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex

cable good support 17045-70 would be nice to see it. otherwise 200 hour just under 1.71 may support.

GVI Forex john 10:44 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex
Reply   


Interesting chart. Very important to see how the two year is trading relative to the official Central Bank benchmark rate. In Australia, clearly the markets are concerned about the economy and this is AUD negative

By contrast in Canada the two year is above the BOC benchmark rate and moving higher. This suggests the markets are setting up for eventual rate hikes and this is CAD positive.

The major developing trend is the start of a move in the direction of monetary policy "normalization" in selected economies

GVI Forex Blog 10:24 GMT July 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The EUR/USD held below the 1.36 handle and did not react to weaker German industrial production data. Germany had previously noted that Q2 growth would be below Q1 levels.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Week begins on a quiet note

syd sf 10:02 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

I'm just not seeing any trades getting generated - and subsequently there would not be associated s/l to chase .. so maybe after today's US Session things can liven up a little more... when people can trade for direction.

given the data etc - eur/usd really should be testing 1.3480 - but since volatility is low - not enough momentum to do that .... anyways as I said above maybe 24 hours can make some sort of difference.

eu pat 09:44 GMT July 7, 2014
KaL , personally I have no position now. USD last days pop up..But trend is opposite ( USD is building still fragile bottom)...
AUD, NZD can easy consolidate here after drop...GBP is still extremly bullish above 1.7030...EUR is at solid support...JPY: there is storm at Japan, political tensions...Hard responsibly advise

GVI , please ,can you set standard letters for my post as before

nw kw 09:36 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

xaueur fast strength gbp/eur lead but see if cad revers on good or bad print

eu pat 09:28 GMT July 7, 2014
both looks good...USD is still at good buying mode .. latest fundamentals for weaker eur and jpy....
But it is only my poor view..

Good luck))

eu pat 09:21 GMT July 7, 2014
sory for thik letters...it is no my ego...GVI done it...maybe for my private link on FB before)))

GVI Forex Blog 09:20 GMT July 7, 2014
EURUSD Testing 1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CA- Ivey PMI

On Friday, the EURUSD traded and closed below the 1.3600 line. Relative economic performance suggests the EURUSD SHOULD trade lower over time, but unusual unidentified demand for the EUR has been providing support.

EURUSD Testing 1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth

SaaR KaL 09:18 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD
Might Close in US Session around 1.3530 to 1.3420
any thoughts?

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT July 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

European Markets are in a mild risk-off posture early Monday as the latest U.S. employment report and ECB meeting are row in the rear-view mirror. The EURUSD is still pivoting the 1.3600 level.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are narrowly mixed. Yields on the European periphery are up slightly. The German 10-yr bund is 1.26%, +1bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are steady.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75%  0bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.64%,  0 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly loweer in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are slightly lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


eu pat 09:03 GMT July 7, 2014
out from short gbp/[email protected] at 174.725

SaaR KaL 08:30 GMT July 7, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Selling EURUSD 1.3610 tgt 1.3550

Mtl JP 07:45 GMT July 7, 2014
Ch!t approaching the fan
Reply   
IMF warns of negative spiral in France as recession looms again
France has sunk into an economic malaise and could take years to climb back out
-
World Bank: 'Now is the time to prepare for next crisis' - cnbc
-
Markets Are Sprinkled With Lots of Fairy Dust
-
Global investors pare risky bond holdings, brace for sell-off - rtrs
--
approaching end of bad news being good news ?

Syd 06:44 GMT July 7, 2014
Sharemarkets set for biggest tumble since GFC, says veteran investor Han K. Lee
Reply   
Lee and Quek won the loyalty of many of their current clients by advising them against piling more money into shares ahead of the start of the global financial crisis in 2007.

Eventually, bad news will again be rationally greeted as bad, and when that does happen, the market could fall sharply, Lee says.

Investors need to prepare for high rates of inflation over the coming years, he cautions.

“After unprecedented stimulus, inflation will overshoot before things normalise again.”

Current global central bank policy is being based on Keynesian economic theory developed in the 1930s, when economies were more contained, he says.


“About a year ago, it was weird that bad economic news was being interpreted as good news by the market, because it was seen as a sign that stimulus would be ongoing,” Lee says. “Now the situation is even more perverse. It doesn’t matter whether the latest data is good or bad, brokers are finding a rationale to interpret everything as an excuse for why shares should continue to rise.”

Amman Amman 06:43 GMT July 7, 2014
Gowex - Auditors ? Can we still believe balance sheets ?

According to me it is not a right decision.

Akram Majed

PAR 06:29 GMT July 7, 2014
Gowex - Auditors ? Can we still believe balance sheets ?
Reply   
Gowex, the Spanish wi-fi firm, admits to false accounts for four years

The Spanish wi-fi firm, Gowex, is filing for bankruptcy after its boss admitted that the firm's accounts for the last four years were false.

Founder and chief executive Jenaro Garcia Martin resigned after making the admission to his board.

In a statement Gowex said that Mr Martin had told the board the accounts "do not show a full and fair view of the company's situation".

PAR 06:23 GMT July 7, 2014
Germany

No market reaction at all to bad german figures .

Euro rock solid.

PAR 06:01 GMT July 7, 2014
Germany
Reply   
Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.8%, below expectations (0.3%) in May

It is the weather.

GVI Forex Blog 04:10 GMT July 7, 2014 Reply   
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,975 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug go

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Asian markets subdued on US market holiday; Germany's Merkel in China on trade talks - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:03 GMT July 7, 2014 Reply   
All the major markets are trading absolutely flat this morning waiting for cues from the US

Morning Briefing : 07-Jul-2014 -0402 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:57 GMT July 7, 2014
AceTrader Jul 7: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   


Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

07 Jul 2014 00:37GMT
EUR/USD - .. Euro breaks Fri's low at 1.3586 in Asian morning. Price opened around 1.3600 in NZ n continued to edge lower, traders cited st specs sold the euro on dovish comments from ECB members Chritian Noyer & Benoit Coeure in a financial forum in Aix-En-Provence, France. Some stops below 1.3585 were stopped but trading volume is likely to be thin in Asia following last Fri's market holiday in the U.S.

07 Jul 2014 00:26GMT
USD/JPY -.. Quoting comments from BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who is speaking at the quarterly meeting of BoJ branch managers :

"Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend."
"Japan's CPI likely to move around 1-1.5% for some time."
"Japan's financial system maintaining stability as a whole."
"Japan's QE has been exerting intended effects."
"Japan will continue with QE for as long as needed to achieve its 2% inflation target in stable manner."
"BoJ will examine upside, downside risks to economy, prices, n adjust policy as necessary."


Data to be released next week:

Japan leading index, Switzerland unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, euro zone Sentix index, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI on Monday.

U.K. BRC shop price, Japan current accounts, economy watcher, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China CPI, PPI, GDP, retail sales, Germany trade balance, exports imports, France trade balance, Switzerland CPI, retail sales, U.K. industrial output, manufacturing output, U.S. redbook on Tuesday.

Australia consumer sentiment, Canada house starts on Wednesday.

New Zealand PMI, U.K. RICS housing survey, Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, China exports, imports, trade balance, Japan consume confidence, France CPI, industrial output, Italy industrial output, U.K. trade balance, BoE rate decision, Canada new house price index, U.S. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Thursday.

Australia housing finance, invest housing finance, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, Canada unemployment rate, employment change, U.S. Federal budget on Friday.

Syd 00:58 GMT July 7, 2014
AUD/USD Currently In Range, Expect Selling On Rallies -- Market Talk
Reply   
The AUD/USD is currently stuck in a range of 0.9320 to 0.9400 but may test 0.9250 later in the week, says HiFX Senior Trader Michael Johnston; "Aussie dollar got hit hard last week after the Governor of the RBA said that the Aussie dollar was over valued by any measure that you use... That is certainly capping the Aussie dollar at the moment." He says he thinks that rallies are going to be sold into and there is "a big ground swell out there that thinks it (AUD/USD) will be sub-US$0.9000 come the end of the year." The pair is currently at 0.9349. ANZ jobs data due out shortly may provide some direction while NAB business confidence will be watched Tuesday.

Syd 00:50 GMT July 7, 2014
Barclays Says A$ Overvalued by Around 12% -- Market Talk
Reply   
Central bank concerns over the high Australian dollar aren't surprising, says Barclays, whose fair-value model indicates the real exchange rate is 12% overvalued. Still, Barclays was surprised by the dovish slant to a speech given by Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Glenn Stevens on Thursday. "We read this as reinforcing the attempt to talk down the currency, but are watching for any indirect signalling to the contrary," Barclays says. The dovish tilt makes the May employment numbers more important than usual, even though the monthly numbers are often volatile. Barclays expects a modest rebound in jobs in data due Thursday, given there was another solid rise in job vacancies in Q2. However, unemployment is likely to tick up to 5.9% given it almost rounded up to that rate last month

Mtl JP 00:16 GMT July 7, 2014
morning

it is unlikely that this week's BoE meeting inspires much movement from the market

 




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