syd sf 23:34 GMT July 8, 2014
morning
Reply
gbp have offers 33 34 35 36 + stops 25 pts above that
eurcad selling @40 + stops 53/67 above that
really ntg to hang your hat on
minor AUD number today and employment tomorrow + Yellen
only things to look forward too.
Mtl JP 21:42 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted
red 21:33 - it has gotten so bad now (for the overlords) that there are euro nega-headline in mass daily rags.. maybe in frustration at seeing 1.35 breakdown nowhere near
GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes
- Far East: CN- CPI.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes.
GVI Forex john 21:34 GMT July 8, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply
NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.700 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -3.200 prev.
Gasoline: +0.100 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -1.200 prev.
Distillates: -0.500 vs. -0.500 exp vs. 0.975 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.1% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.40% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
london red 21:33 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted
anyone that watched the world cup thus far wouldnt be surprised, brazil had this coming. seen glaciers move faster, even the fed moves quicker. no now im being silly. brazil arent that slow, i take that back. Still i have a feeling tomorrows high for euro will be high for week.
Mtl JP 20:31 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted
Reply
Germany 5 - Brazil Nil, sofar
collective disaster, setting all sorts on new records
IF this continues every German player will have scored
Paris ib 19:20 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Another very sick auction result. With all that paper expiring this year that story can only continue. Not USD positive.
dc CB 18:46 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
if they clear the 10 tommorow at 2.5ish or less and the 30 on thurs below 3.4.
Yellen will have nothing to worry about
GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:28 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Worst fear materialized - EURUSD at 1.3611-13 for hours
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
at top of hour some smoke signals from FED yakkers
-
non‐voting hawk Lacker yaks on economic outlook w/Q&A
45 minutes l8tr follows
voting dove Kocherlakota with a yak on monetary policy and Q&A
GVI Forex john 16:38 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr 2.561% -6bp big move for this instrument.
London Misha 15:58 GMT July 8, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Bullish Harami as seems to reject nearby (weak) support on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Rejects overhead resistance on Medium MA& closes below (just) Long MA. Tests (broken) recent Uptrend, all on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Mini Double Top on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Small follow on to Bullish Engulfing Pattern as hits overhead Middle Tine SP resistance on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Bullish Hammer as consolidates & rises up off recent 38.2% Fib (0.9336) & Uptrend on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Rises to test overhead Fib congestion 60.06-60.09 but fails to breach. Today tests Fib support 59.66-59.72, all on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Another try over 10.8000 but fails to close over with a Bearish Inverted Hammer on Daily Chart. Tests lower today!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart (just) but halts at first minor 38.2% Fib (2.2263) on Daily Chart.
USDRUB - Bearish Shooting Star formation as fails at recent 50% Fib (34.6029). Today tests down to Long MA, all on Daily Chart.
Livingston nh 15:54 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
SPX filled the gap from last Tues Q3 open - DOW has a way to go yet // Russell got hammered yesterday and again today
If everything's a bubble there are no safe havens
GVI Forex john 15:27 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
3-yr last 0.948% -2bp. Auction @ 17:00 GMT.
GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:22 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Yesterday EURUSD got stuck around 1.3605-6 for hours after grinding slightly higher
Today it is currently stuck around 1.3611-13 but hope it is not a replay of yesterday.
Using 1.3700-1.3576
1.3623 = 38,2%
1.3638 = 50%
1.3653 = 61.8%
Main focus is on weaker equities to state the obvious.
GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Markets have gone into a full a risk-off posture today as
equities sell-off ahead of earnings season. There are concerns that
stocks might be overpriced. The EURUSD continues to pivot the
1.3600 level.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are now broadly lower. Yields on the European
periphery are higher. The German 10-yr bund is 1.23%, -3bp.
- U.K. gilt yields are sharply lower. The 10-yr
gilt is
2.66% -8bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.57%, -5 bp. As
equities correct.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are broadly lower. U.S. shares
are down sharply.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Mtl JP 14:22 GMT July 8, 2014
Auctions
dc CB I beg to differ: not bad enough yet, not while 10-yr not under 2.5% yield
dc CB 14:11 GMT July 8, 2014
Auctions
It's a miracle.
Suddenly all this "bad" news.
eu pat 14:06 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd
Thanks Jay...sometimes is better, sometimes worse...
GVI Forex Blog 14:06 GMT July 8, 2014
Reply
July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 9, 2014
GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd
Pat, nice trade to catch almost the full day range (so far).
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes
- Far East: CN- CPI.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes.
Mtl JP 13:52 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
nh you would have to assume that the primary dealers do not talk with the FED scheming about
1) when the FED would be relieving the situation and
2) juicing market for $$ while the going is good
GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply
looks like S&P may be dragging USDJPY lower or it might be the USDJPY in the lead. Its hard to tell because the two are trading so tightly together.
Someone suggests Japan could be seeing repatriations because of the typhoon. Presumably a major storm could see insurance companies bringing cash back home pre-emptively.
Livingston nh 13:44 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
More articles appearing about repo fails and the Fed policy problems -- if the 3 yr yield comes above 1% today it will join the 2 yr auction of June -- yields rising into the belly while the 10 and 30s shrink? -- is there a reverse Operation Twist in Fed playbook??
Mtl JP 13:43 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
Mtl JP 23:33 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex: Reply
Tomorrow starts a new Corp reporting season. Alcoa kicks it off. It could set the tone.
Stocks seem to have priced in a recovering economy so, next, players will probably want to see S&P showing 5% ++ profits to justify the valuations. Else we may see interest rates go down some more. With all that implies on FX.
-
Bit of blood leaking from equities this am
GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr 2.578% -4bp
Its a long way to 2.50% would take a serious slide in shares to get there.
Mtl JP 13:29 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
US 10-ys still not yielding less than 2.5%
GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
USDJPY appears it will break a 3 day pattern around 102 --
Key support is 101.21
101.50 is important as it needs to stay above to keep focus on 102.
Mtl JP 13:15 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
usdyen gv chartpoints
Pivot 101.93
Sup 1 101.67
Sup 2 101.48
Sup 3 101.21
-
Bottom Line
101.21 needs to hold support else...
Mtl JP 13:03 GMT July 8, 2014
morning
reasonably tight correlated inverse prancing between usdyen and US 10-yr price
Mtl JP 12:59 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
Jay 10:17 what is interesting about that linked piece is that it appears in the pro-state and anti-libertarian New York Times rag
Mtl JP 12:47 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
and here is Hilsenrath trying to reset what janet might and might not have said:
Grand Central: Yellen Didn’t Rule Out Monetary Policy to Combat Bubbles WSJ
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen caused a stir last week when she appeared to rule out raising interest rates to tame financial bubbles. But a close reading of her comments suggests she actually went to great lengths to leave her options open. .../..
eu pat 12:32 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
bought @1.3592 SL 1.3557
GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output
fwiw- Net increase in GBP longs was a combination of more longs and fewer shorts. Click on the blue chart below for details. COT data released yesterday morning (NY) were almost a week old!
GVI Forex john 10:56 GMT July 8, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
EUR-based Heat Map. EUR broadly weaker, GBP and CHF unchanged. It is back below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships.
syd sf 09:54 GMT July 8, 2014
update
Reply
gbp
seeing bids coming in now @969798 from earlier trades
overall stops placed @1.7045 and @1.7155
so it will be looking to buy 60-70 and sell 30-40 - with those stops.
Gold - it is buying looking for 1326 -- its bottom projected point 1308 so its stops under there.
Everything else is pretty hard to make sense of at this point .. see what is on the books in the morning.
GVI Forex john 08:58 GMT July 8, 2014
June 2014 Swiss CPI
EARLIER: Swiss June CPI back at 0.00% y/y.
GVI Forex john 08:45 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Markets in a risk-off posture again as equities sell-off again
following the difficult session Monday in the U.S. The EURUSD continues
to pivot the 1.3600 level.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mostly lower. Yields on the European
periphery are up again. The German 10-yr bund is 1.25%, -1bp.
- U.K. gilt yields are lower. The 10-yr gilt is
2.72% -2bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.61%, -1 bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are mosty lower. U.S. shares
are down.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Mtl JP 08:41 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News
scream on front page of FT:
ECB under pressure to rein in ‘crazy’ euro
Reduce value to the dollar, says Airbus chief
-
but stops short of suggesting to reduce it to Zero
Mtl JP 08:33 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News
GBP manufacturing m/m:
prev 0.4
frcst:0.4%
actual: -1.3%
US 10-yr rocketing UP
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT July 8, 2014
AceTrader Jul 8: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
08 Jul 2014 01:59GMT
EUR/USD - .. Euro moves narrowly but with a firm bias in subdued Asian trading after Mon's rebound from European near 2-week low of 1.3676. Short-term specs sold the single currency at European open on stop hunting and although price briefly penetrated Friday's 1.3586 low, good buying interest emerged at 1.3676 and euro staged a rebound to 1.3602, such move prompted broad-based short-covering in euro vs USD & GBP, the pair later rose marginally to session high of 1.3609 in NY afternoon, the 1.3610 at Asian open.
Although consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, reports of fairly good offers at 1.3615/25 should cap intra-day gain, so day traders can sell the euro on marginal rise for re-test of 1.3676 later in the day. Initial bids are noted at 1.3600 and more at 1.3590-85 with stops below 1.3675, however, traders reported a layer of bids at 1.3665-50, so downside on the euro also looks pretty limited today. Germany & France will release trade data at 06:00GMT & 06:45GMT but these are not expected to move the euro much.
White House said Obama, Hollande decide U.S., Europe should take further coordinated measures to impose costs on Russia if it does not take immediate steps towards de-escalation in Ukraine.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan current account, economic watchers, Australia NAB business confidence, business conditions, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. redbook retail sales.
syd sf 01:09 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News
Just want to point out something that isn't on your news tracker GVI John
the Indian Budget comes out Thursday - and the market will be watching for any change on the Gold Tax
with the introduction of the Tax ... Indian Imports dropped from 100 tonnes a month to 30 ... so if there is any changes it could impact a few things.
Just because it is summer it does not mean it is not a good time to trade.Here is my view on how to trade this summer's market.
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