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Forex Forum Archive for 07/08/2014

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syd sf 23:34 GMT July 8, 2014
morning
Reply   
gbp have offers 33 34 35 36 + stops 25 pts above that

eurcad selling @40 + stops 53/67 above that

really ntg to hang your hat on

minor AUD number today and employment tomorrow + Yellen

only things to look forward too.


Mtl JP 21:46 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted

7- 1... at last

Mtl JP 21:42 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted

red 21:33 - it has gotten so bad now (for the overlords) that there are euro nega-headline in mass daily rags.. maybe in frustration at seeing 1.35 breakdown nowhere near

GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

  • Far East: CN- CPI.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes.


Mtl JP 21:36 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted

7 - Nil
record defeat

GVI Forex john 21:34 GMT July 8, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.700 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -3.200 prev.
Gasoline: +0.100 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -1.200 prev.
Distillates: -0.500 vs. -0.500 exp vs. 0.975 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.1% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.40% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 21:33 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted

anyone that watched the world cup thus far wouldnt be surprised, brazil had this coming. seen glaciers move faster, even the fed moves quicker. no now im being silly. brazil arent that slow, i take that back. Still i have a feeling tomorrows high for euro will be high for week.

Mtl JP 21:26 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted

6 - Nil now

Syd 21:17 GMT July 8, 2014
Marc Faber: The asset bubble has begun to burst
Reply   
It's the question investors everywhere are wrestling with: Are asset prices in a bubble, or do they simply reflect the fact that the global economy is growing once again?

"Obviously I've been wrong in the sense that I expected a correction to occur over the last two years,

Mtl JP 20:31 GMT July 8, 2014
Brazil devasted
Reply   
Germany 5 - Brazil Nil, sofar
collective disaster, setting all sorts on new records

IF this continues every German player will have scored

GVI Forex john 20:17 GMT July 8, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   


WEDNESDAY July 9, 2014
CN CPI
US  TRY 10-yr
US Fed Minutes
THURSDAY July 10, 2014
AU Employment
CN Trade
GB Trade
GB Bank of England
US Weekly Jobless
TRY TRY 30-yr
FRIDAY July 11, 2014
CA Employment

GVI Forex john 20:01 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr closing @ 2.561%

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Alcoa reports after hours
could set the tone

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT July 8, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Paris ib 19:20 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Another very sick auction result. With all that paper expiring this year that story can only continue. Not USD positive.

GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT July 8, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 18:46 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

if they clear the 10 tommorow at 2.5ish or less and the 30 on thurs below 3.4.

Yellen will have nothing to worry about

GVI Forex john 18:37 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Yellen House Banking Testimony @ 14:00 GMT
Tuesday 15 July 2014

GVI Forex Blog 18:31 GMT July 8, 2014
Looking Ahead to Fed Meeting Minutes, But Odds Equities Will Rule Once Again
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

The first major headline item this week will be the latest FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon. We will be looking for any hints about any changes in the timing of the end of the asset purchase program. or a "normalization" of short-term interest rates.

Looking Ahead to Fed Meeting Minutes, But Odds Equities Will Rule Once Again

GVIForex Jay Meisler 18:28 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Worst fear materialized - EURUSD at 1.3611-13 for hours

Mtl JP 17:48 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Lacker also said the Fed is on track to end its bond-buying program “before the end of the year,” and that most central-bank officials expect to begin raising short-term interest rates sometime in 2015. “This is consistent with the FOMC’s past practice of raising rates pre-emptively, before undesirable inflation pressures actually emerge,” he said. - wsj
-
Lacker seems to lead players to believe the FED's forward vision acuity has improved

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

3-yr 0.992%
bid-to-cover 3.38 vs 3.41

NY JM 16:53 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Pathetic short squeeze attempt.

All about equities today.

Mtl JP 16:51 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

at top of hour some smoke signals from FED yakkers
-
non‐voting hawk Lacker yaks on economic outlook w/Q&A
45 minutes l8tr follows
voting dove Kocherlakota with a yak on monetary policy and Q&A

Mtl JP 16:39 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



current S&P support and test

GVI Forex john 16:38 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.561% -6bp big move for this instrument.

Mtl JP 16:31 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh 15:54 1.57% drop is not exactly "hammered"

London Misha 15:58 GMT July 8, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bullish Harami as seems to reject nearby (weak) support on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Rejects overhead resistance on Medium MA& closes below (just) Long MA. Tests (broken) recent Uptrend, all on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Mini Double Top on Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Small follow on to Bullish Engulfing Pattern as hits overhead Middle Tine SP resistance on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Bullish Hammer as consolidates & rises up off recent 38.2% Fib (0.9336) & Uptrend on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Rises to test overhead Fib congestion 60.06-60.09 but fails to breach. Today tests Fib support 59.66-59.72, all on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Another try over 10.8000 but fails to close over with a Bearish Inverted Hammer on Daily Chart. Tests lower today!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart (just) but halts at first minor 38.2% Fib (2.2263) on Daily Chart.
USDRUB - Bearish Shooting Star formation as fails at recent 50% Fib (34.6029). Today tests down to Long MA, all on Daily Chart.



Livingston nh 15:54 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

SPX filled the gap from last Tues Q3 open - DOW has a way to go yet // Russell got hammered yesterday and again today

If everything's a bubble there are no safe havens

GVI Forex john 15:27 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

3-yr last 0.948% -2bp. Auction @ 17:00 GMT.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 15:22 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Yesterday EURUSD got stuck around 1.3605-6 for hours after grinding slightly higher

Today it is currently stuck around 1.3611-13 but hope it is not a replay of yesterday.

Using 1.3700-1.3576

1.3623 = 38,2%
1.3638 = 50%
1.3653 = 61.8%

Main focus is on weaker equities to state the obvious.

GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets have gone into a full  a risk-off posture today as equities sell-off ahead of earnings season. There are concerns that stocks might be overpriced.  The EURUSD continues to pivot the 1.3600 level.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now broadly lower. Yields on the European periphery are higher. The German 10-yr bund is 1.23%, -3bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are sharply lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.66%  -8bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.57%,  -5 bp.  As equities correct.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are broadly lower. U.S. shares are down sharply.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:10 GMT July 8, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Poor economic data reports out overnight (UK industrial production and German exports declined) dampened sentiment and sent European equity indices lower. The lack of any significant US news this morning carried through the negative tone and US indices are trading at their lows as of writing.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: European and US Stocks Slump Ahead of Earnings Season

Mtl JP 14:22 GMT July 8, 2014
Auctions

dc CB I beg to differ: not bad enough yet, not while 10-yr not under 2.5% yield

dc CB 14:11 GMT July 8, 2014
Auctions



It's a miracle.
Suddenly all this "bad" news.

eu pat 14:06 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd

Thanks Jay...sometimes is better, sometimes worse...

GVI Forex Blog 14:06 GMT July 8, 2014 Reply   
July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 9, 2014

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd

Pat, nice trade to catch almost the full day range (so far).

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT July 8, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 8, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 9. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CN- CPI, US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes

  • Far East: CN- CPI.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes.


eu pat 13:59 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd

[email protected] lov volatility..so enough..

Mtl JP 13:52 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh you would have to assume that the primary dealers do not talk with the FED scheming about
1) when the FED would be relieving the situation and
2) juicing market for $$ while the going is good

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
looks like S&P may be dragging USDJPY lower or it might be the USDJPY in the lead. Its hard to tell because the two are trading so tightly together.

Someone suggests Japan could be seeing repatriations because of the typhoon. Presumably a major storm could see insurance companies bringing cash back home pre-emptively.

Livingston nh 13:44 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

More articles appearing about repo fails and the Fed policy problems -- if the 3 yr yield comes above 1% today it will join the 2 yr auction of June -- yields rising into the belly while the 10 and 30s shrink? -- is there a reverse Operation Twist in Fed playbook??

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?

Mtl JP 23:33 GMT July 7, 2014
Interest Rates and Forex: Reply

Tomorrow starts a new Corp reporting season. Alcoa kicks it off. It could set the tone.

Stocks seem to have priced in a recovering economy so, next, players will probably want to see S&P showing 5% ++ profits to justify the valuations. Else we may see interest rates go down some more. With all that implies on FX.

-
Bit of blood leaking from equities this am

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.578% -4bp

Its a long way to 2.50% would take a serious slide in shares to get there.

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?

US 10-ys still not yielding less than 2.5%

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

USDJPY appears it will break a 3 day pattern around 102 --

Key support is 101.21

101.50 is important as it needs to stay above to keep focus on 102.

Mtl JP 13:15 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?

usdyen gv chartpoints
Pivot 101.93
Sup 1 101.67
Sup 2 101.48
Sup 3 101.21
-
Bottom Line
101.21 needs to hold support else...

HK [email protected] 13:06 GMT July 8, 2014
Brigadier General James Hecker,“I can’t stress enough how dangerous this typhoon may be when it hits
Reply   


Japan on highest alert for ‘once in decades’ typhoon — New forecasts show direct hit at Fukushima plant — Official: “Extraordinary situation… Grave danger approaching” — Record-level winds to 170mph, waves near 50ft — Military: “Can’t stress enough how dangerous… not just another typhoon” — Astronaut: It “takes up our entire view… Wow” (PHOTOS)

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT July 8, 2014
morning

reasonably tight correlated inverse prancing between usdyen and US 10-yr price

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?

Jay 10:17 what is interesting about that linked piece is that it appears in the pro-state and anti-libertarian New York Times rag

Mtl JP 12:47 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?

and here is Hilsenrath trying to reset what janet might and might not have said:

Grand Central: Yellen Didn’t Rule Out Monetary Policy to Combat Bubbles WSJ

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen caused a stir last week when she appeared to rule out raising interest rates to tame financial bubbles. But a close reading of her comments suggests she actually went to great lengths to leave her options open. .../..

eu pat 12:32 GMT July 8, 2014
eur/usd
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

bought @1.3592 SL 1.3557

GVIForex Jay Meisler 12:18 GMT July 8, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

As posted on GVIForex. I also did one for GBPUSD - send me an EMAIL to view it



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update


Tight ranges, focus on GBP

GVIForex Jay Meisler 11:42 GMT July 8, 2014
How to Trade a Summer Forex Market
Reply   
Just because it is summer it does not mean it is not a good time to trade.Here is my view on how to trade this summer's market.

How to Trade a Summer Forex Market

nw kw 11:25 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output



xaugbp 4h chart had trend line down for poss support

nw kw 11:22 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

so I was betting on air/tks

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

fwiw- Net increase in GBP longs was a combination of more longs and fewer shorts. Click on the blue chart below for details. COT data released yesterday morning (NY) were almost a week old!

nw kw 11:17 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

other chart the shorts go up with longs/ ap 4th chart to do this year

GVI Forex john 11:14 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output





Click on chart for COT Details



GVI Forex john 10:56 GMT July 8, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. EUR broadly weaker, GBP and CHF unchanged. It is back below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships.




nw kw 10:19 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

Forex john gbp cot had that spike in open interest we bin working on/reversal pattern

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:17 GMT July 8, 2014
Bubblemania?
Reply   
Is this global Bubbkemania?

Welcome to the Everything Boom, or Maybe the Everything Bubble

GVI Forex Blog 10:14 GMT July 8, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP encountered some weakness after the UK May Industrial Production data registered its largest monthly decline since Jan 2013; adding some dovishness to potential BOE rate hike expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK May Industrial Production data tempers BOE rate hike expectations for now

syd sf 09:54 GMT July 8, 2014
update
Reply   
gbp

seeing bids coming in now @969798 from earlier trades

overall stops placed @1.7045 and @1.7155

so it will be looking to buy 60-70 and sell 30-40 - with those stops.


Gold - it is buying looking for 1326 -- its bottom projected point 1308 so its stops under there.

Everything else is pretty hard to make sense of at this point .. see what is on the books in the morning.


GVI Forex john 09:18 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

US 10-yr now 2.597%
UK 10-yr now 2.710%

GVI Forex Blog 09:10 GMT July 8, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: DE- Trade, CH-CPI. GB- Output, US- 3yr

Swiss CPI continues to be a problem as it continues to fall well short of its 2.0% y/y target. In June, its yr/yr reading was 0.0%. It is possible to SNB will try to drive it even weaker vs. the EUR?

Swiss CPI Unchanged Yr/yr as Deflation Imported from EZ. Economic Data Calendar Back loaded

GVI Forex Blog 09:05 GMT July 8, 2014 Reply   
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,968 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** Au

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Asia stock markets pause ahead of earnings; Samsung Electronics preliminary results miss with cautiously positive outlook - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex john 08:58 GMT July 8, 2014
June 2014 Swiss CPI



EARLIER: Swiss June CPI back at 0.00% y/y.

GVI Forex john 08:50 GMT July 8, 2014
June 2014 Swiss CPI
Reply   




--EARLIER DATA NEWS--
mm: -0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: 0.00% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. 0.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:45 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Markets in a risk-off posture again as equities sell-off again following the difficult session Monday in the U.S. The EURUSD continues to pivot the 1.3600 level.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower. Yields on the European periphery are up again. The German 10-yr bund is 1.25%, -1bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are lower.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.72%  -2bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.61%,  -1 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mosty lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 08:41 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News

scream on front page of FT:

ECB under pressure to rein in ‘crazy’ euro
Reduce value to the dollar, says Airbus chief

-
but stops short of suggesting to reduce it to Zero

GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

GBP hit hard by the miss on production data.

GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT July 8, 2014
May 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Ind mm: -0.7% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% (+0.30%) prev.
Ind yy: +2.30% vs. +3.25% exp. vs. +3.00% (+2.90%)prev.

Mfg mm:-1.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% (+0.30%) prev.
Mfg yy: +3.70% vs. +8.60% exp. vs. +4.40% (+4.30%)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 08:33 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News

GBP manufacturing m/m:
prev 0.4
frcst:0.4%
actual: -1.3%
US 10-yr rocketing UP

SaaR KaL 08:13 GMT July 8, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
EURUSD most likely wants 1.3450

Amman Amman 05:55 GMT July 8, 2014
AceTrader Jul 8: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Do not know whether it is a great improvement or not because last few months it is going on.

...

GVI Forex Blog 03:57 GMT July 8, 2014 Reply   
Today both Rail budget and CAD data will be available but the impact of CAD may be more on

Morning Briefing : 08-Jul-2014 -0355 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT July 8, 2014
AceTrader Jul 8: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD


08 Jul 2014 01:59GMT

EUR/USD - .. Euro moves narrowly but with a firm bias in subdued Asian trading after Mon's rebound from European near 2-week low of 1.3676. Short-term specs sold the single currency at European open on stop hunting and although price briefly penetrated Friday's 1.3586 low, good buying interest emerged at 1.3676 and euro staged a rebound to 1.3602, such move prompted broad-based short-covering in euro vs USD & GBP, the pair later rose marginally to session high of 1.3609 in NY afternoon, the 1.3610 at Asian open.

Although consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, reports of fairly good offers at 1.3615/25 should cap intra-day gain, so day traders can sell the euro on marginal rise for re-test of 1.3676 later in the day. Initial bids are noted at 1.3600 and more at 1.3590-85 with stops below 1.3675, however, traders reported a layer of bids at 1.3665-50, so downside on the euro also looks pretty limited today. Germany & France will release trade data at 06:00GMT & 06:45GMT but these are not expected to move the euro much.

White House said Obama, Hollande decide U.S., Europe should take further coordinated measures to impose costs on Russia if it does not take immediate steps towards de-escalation in Ukraine.


Data to be released on Tuesday:

Japan current account, economic watchers, Australia NAB business confidence, business conditions, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output and U.S. redbook retail sales.

syd sf 01:09 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News

Just want to point out something that isn't on your news tracker GVI John

the Indian Budget comes out Thursday - and the market will be watching for any change on the Gold Tax

with the introduction of the Tax ... Indian Imports dropped from 100 tonnes a month to 30 ... so if there is any changes it could impact a few things.

GVI Forex Blog 00:04 GMT July 8, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar's jobs-inspired rally runs out of steam

* Euro recovers from brief dip on weak German data

* U.S. yields slip as Wall St looks to earnings for guidance

FOREX-Dollar rally takes a breather, markets lack conviction

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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