syd sf 23:35 GMT July 10, 2014
morning
sorry wrong big figure
1.7088/91 area
syd sf 23:34 GMT July 10, 2014
morning
Reply
gbp
saw selling 31 and 33 - target 1.7188/89/90/91 area
gold - profit taking @44 - but new target of 1364 generated - so I guess that is probably event driven and bit hard to trade short term.
gbpcad / eurcad seen both sides of this - have been sellers @40 above .. and this morning triggered buying into the 80 level.
not direction setting due to CAD Number later.
overall probably Asia will go sideways with $yen and eur gbp aud drift lower.
NZD is the one to watch that thing has been bid for days - so any liquidation there would spell trouble for other pairs.
BOL>
dc CB 22:30 GMT July 10, 2014
The Repo Man Fails to Deliver
Reply
But why do I care about some archaic money-market malarkey? Simple, Without collateral to fund repo, there is no repo; without repo, there is no leveraged positioning in financial markets; without leverage and the constant hypothecation there is nothing to maintain the stock market's exuberance (as we are already seeing in JPY and bonds)
The spike in "fails to deliver" highlights a major growing problem in the repo markets that provide that leverage... and thus the glue that holds stock markets together.
Wondering why JPY and bond yields have diverged so notably from stocks in recent days... repo effects (it's just a matter of time before it hits stocks)...
The Current Repo Fails Issue Rebukes Any Notion That The Fed Is In Control
GVI Forex john 21:33 GMT July 10, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
July 10, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 11.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CA-Employment
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: CA-Employment, COT Report.
GVI Forex Blog 20:10 GMT July 10, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
There was a flight to safe-havens during the London morning, mostly unwound during the NY session. The spark appeared to be news a Portuguese banking group defaulted on debt. Portugal's stockmarket (PSI) closed down 3.7%, the Eurostoxx 50 closed 1.6% lower, and the S&P500 is currently down 0.4%. Global investors bought US and German government bonds, and pushed the US dollar higher.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
30-yr 3.369%
bid to cover 2.40 vs. 2.69
average
sorry a bit late
eu pat 17:56 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
Closed buy GBP/[email protected] at 1,17320 There is very low volatility last days..
If not rain so at list raidrops..
or
When king Cable is lazy , nobody will distrub his rest...will be as these days all summer
maybe early for a lot f people..but for me enoug trading today..
if volatility will be the some low as last days all summer...so beter will be for me less trade and more swim..
dc CB 17:41 GMT July 10, 2014
Firewrorks next week? Gammy's 2 days in the Hot Seat
Reply
frustrated by the Federal Reserve’s expansive economic stimulus campaign, and its growing role as a financial regulator, are renewing their efforts to constrain the central bank.
The Fed would be required to set monetary policy based on a published formula under legislation introduced this week by leading Republicans on the Financial Services Committee. Other bills would eliminate the Fed’s responsibility to maximize employment, or eliminate the Fed entirely.
Ms. Yellen is likely to face questions on the subject when she appears before House and Senate committees Tuesday and Wednesday for semiannual testimony.
ouse Republicans Restart Their War on the Fed
Mtl JP 17:33 GMT July 10, 2014
usdyen at 101.30-ish resistance atm.
may need a bit more help from 10-yr note sink some more
SaaR KaL 17:01 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
The Kid Lucked out
Good he wasn't around when daddy was drinking
SaaR KaL 16:55 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
I Like the very last Line
JP Morgan ...etc
That would be "Hay ...you come work with us...this is how you end up!!"
Mtl JP 16:49 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
another banker now "stress free"
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-bank-executive-who-moved-to-us-shot-his-wife-dead-before-killing-himself-9596515.html
SaaR KaL 16:40 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
No Offence to any;
About the Hamas...and people Vs. People
well... they been fighting since Jesus time + You do not know if it wasn't the Israelis that shot that rocket to stop the peace process...(This often done by politicians)
IMO; 911, Pearl Harbor
The cuban crisis Aircraft Crash
Maybe; Someone does not like peace...wonder what the motivating factor is?
"Follow the Money"
dc CB 16:23 GMT July 10, 2014
Bubblicious
Where is Mary Jo? SEC?
Yesterday we wrote about the strange case of CYNK Technology.
The company's stock gained nearly 25,000% in 16 trading days, giving it a market cap of over $5 billion. But, as we noted, it's not clear if the company really exists, as financial statements indicate that it has no revenue, assets, or full-time employees.
Cynk Technology Corp., a development stage company, focuses on operating a social network. Its social network is based on showing the types of people the user is connected with and associated. The company intends to serve seekers, who want to meet people; mavens, who know a lot of people; and targets, who are people that other people want to meet. The company was formerly known as Introbuzz, Inc. and changed its name to Cynk Technology Corp. in July 2013. Cynk Technology Corp. was founded in 2008 and is based in Belize City, Belize.
Step Inside The Social Network That's Worth Over $5 Billion But Has No Revenues, Assets, Or Full-Time Employees
Mtl JP 16:22 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
..."U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told reporters at the end of talks on Thursday that China was committed to reducing its interference with the yuan, "as conditions permit". China will also increase the transparency of its currency policy, he said, describing the agreements as "major" changes"... /.. - rtrs
SaaR KaL 16:18 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
USDCHF
See what I mean?
The Politicians want Secret accounts
No wonder CHF will gain strength
They are taking our money and deposing it Into Swiss account...all Politicians do that
Mean Exp Values
Daily
Date Avg
Jul/10/14 0.9047
Jun/07/15 0.8929
Weekly
Date Avg
Jul/05/14 0.8412
Sep/23/19 0.6391
SaaR KaL 16:02 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
John
Thanks...I feel better now... ;)
GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Kal- I was just pointing out at what I see as potential market influences between now and the Friday close. I am the first to admit that it is looks like a pretty thin list.
dc CB 15:57 GMT July 10, 2014
Bubblicious
Reply
Bubble Oddity still going up
$5.9 billion market cap
as Crazy Eddie used to say: these prices are innnnnsaaaaaane
SaaR KaL 15:55 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
JP
That was going on since Jesus time
The world lived it just fine
Why do traders use the Boogie Man Issue?
Mtl JP 15:53 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
pray tell how u see "Israel and Hamas also as a key potential issue" for a trade idea . tia
SaaR KaL 15:52 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
John..HI
You know how i feel about politicians.
I do not think there doings has any effect on the mkt
I think it is the other away around
The MKT has everything to do what they say...After the Market does it.
Try to remmeber this;
AAPL
above 96 is crash level with me
After it goes to 50 the coming year
They "Politicans" will talk AAPL
If they were so good...why can't say it now?
Another thing
Housing Index...^HGX
From here hits 300 then crashes again
They WOnt tell you that
Sorry John; Politicians are less important to me then Clerk Working for "Smoke on Water" Company in North Korea
GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Not much of a macro nature is due for the rest of the week. Into the weekend tomorrow, we will be looking at how the Banco Espirito Sancto issue will be resolved and how U.S. equities are reacting to early days of the earning season. Don't forget Israel and Hamas also as a key potential issue.
Canadian Employment data for June are a major release on Friday, but they will tend to be Canada specific.
GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Markets moved to a risk-off posture on Thursday after problems surfaced
in a major Portuguese bank. The issues triggered strong intra-Eurozone
flows and gave the USD a flight-to-safety bid. The EURUSD continues has
retested the 1.3600 line.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are broadly lower. Yields on the European
periphery are higher, especially in Portugal. The German 10-yr bund is
1.21%, -2bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.63% -4bp. Odds still favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.52%, -6bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are ending lower. U.S. shares are weaker.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Paris ib 15:26 GMT July 10, 2014
JP - these questions addressed to me? I like EUR/AUD up. Aussie is defying gravity. Westpac is being urged to close 200 branches, iron ore is in trouble, mines are operating at losses, housing market seems to have peaked, the budget was contractionary and unpopular and impacting consumer confidence and spending.... Goldman is calling a rate cut in the future (all other analysts are calling for no change for ever and ever). The China trade boom is over. I could go on. The trouble with the Aussie is that volatility and ranges are a killer. You have to have deep pockets.
Cable? I don't think I would sell that to be honest. We probably all have to hold our horses. Either that or have the tightest possible stops or very deep pockets. Why would you sell cable? Because it's at a high? I'm not sure that is enough of a good reason.
Macrobusiness on Australia
Mtl JP 15:12 GMT July 10, 2014
do u see gbpusd holding 1.71 ?
I am itching for it to slide to 1.70
or how about that aud , defying gravity ?
SaaR KaL 15:09 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
DJI
17,177.1870 16,795.7397
Buy
dc CB 15:05 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
dc CB 17:53 GMT July 3, 2014
the Facebook Emotion boys will be out in force starting sometime Tues, prob after the 3Y auction tails.
Repeat of the last week in June??, as soon as the thurs auction was put too bed, stox, particularly the NDX never looked back. Futures @ 3800 to finish today at 3917. not bad for a weeks work.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
STOX front running the Obvious?
Those Primary Dealers took 46+% of the 10s yesterday...covered their costs and got some nice "Collateral" for da Books.
Paris ib 15:03 GMT July 10, 2014
JP - glad to have been assistance. Markets coming back here. We had a little panic. Europe has been terrible since Monday, probably oversold. So let's see how far this bounce can go.
Mtl JP 15:01 GMT July 10, 2014
ib u have helped me to decide to only trgt 101.50 and just pull up the sl some
Mtl JP 14:42 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
sofar only approx 0.75% slide in US stox
note that -10% is, by convention, considered only a correction within an uptrend
SaaR KaL 14:28 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
NDX 4000 Next week IMO
Livingston nh 14:14 GMT July 10, 2014
EUR/GBP
Reply
A very long term MA (144 ema monthly) is now .7906 -- has been above for nearly 7 years -- w/i striking distance now - a break below could be significant move if MPC members get hawkish and/or EU austerity falters
Mtl JP 14:10 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT July 8, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map: Reply
10-yr 2.578% -4bp
Its a long way to 2.50% would take a serious slide in shares to get there.
-
seems like stox have some ways left to go yet to qualify as serious slide
dc CB 14:10 GMT July 10, 2014
Auctions
Reply
the 30Y will go off just fine
Portugese Facebook Emotional Manipulation
BTFD Dahlings
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:07 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
USDJPY finds some support => EURJPY still falling => EURUSD dips ====> cross trading 101
SaaR KaL 13:56 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Banks are sell ha?
BAC heading to 29 this coming year
GVI Forex john 13:50 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
What a difference a week makes. Last Thursday (after the 288K increase in NFP), the 10-yr closed at 2.650%. Today its been testing 2.50% off an on.
The life of a bond trader can be interesting.
Livingston nh 13:34 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Jay - that USD/JPY lo was at the bottom of the STOX correction -- this one might be a bit worse
Mtl JP 13:27 GMT July 10, 2014
ib 13:13 I like all posi-pips come they out of rabbit's or elephant's a.ss
GVI Forex john 13:24 GMT July 10, 2014
June 2014 Australia Employment
EARLIER: Markets were unimpressed by the Aussie employment data. Underlying data were no so strong. AUD weaker vs. USD and EUR.
From ABS:
Employment increased 15,900 to 11,578,200. Full-time employment decreased 3,800 to 8,062,500 and part-time employment increased 19,700 to 3,515,700.
Unemployment increased 20,300 to 741,700. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 10,000 to 543,000 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 10,300 to 198,600.
The unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 6.0%.
SaaR KaL 13:22 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Why I Like Equity?
Cause I can do thousands of companies in an hour then select the best.
All Buys US Equity
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:18 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
TMajor support is the 2014 low set in January at 100.73
Gets ugly below it so bulls do not want to see below it
Paris ib 13:13 GMT July 10, 2014
JP you have a 10 pip target ? lol
GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT July 10, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EURUSD Spot to 20-day average mostly negative, except vs. AUD. EUR changes on the day are mixed.
Mtl JP 13:12 GMT July 10, 2014
Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: market Target: 101.25/50 Stop: < 101.05
x fingers
SaaR KaL 13:10 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
EURJPY
139.7848 137.3868
could even go to 136.7873
will buy when seen
Mtl JP 13:08 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
ib thx ! I am now reassured and will copy your trade calls
-
usdyen needs to hold 100.80-ish support
SaaR KaL 13:08 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
2 pairs that will rally north well IMO
GBPJPY and EURJPY
Paris ib 13:03 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
And the USD/JPY just confirmed the direction of capital flows.
Paris ib 13:00 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
Actually JP I secretly record all international capital transactions because I have moles in all the major banks. :-))
SaaR KaL 12:59 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Cable tgt 1.735 area
SaaR KaL 12:59 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
AAPL
The puts will the active thing
96.7961 89.8166
aapl is finshed
Mtl JP 12:46 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
red 11:05 u one lucky dawg !
-
time to long some gbpusd -> 1.7125/50 trgt ?
Livingston nh 12:44 GMT July 10, 2014
US treasury Yields
Noticed more commentary from other than "the usual suspects" after the Minutes about the Fed's apparent disconnect and/or late stage scramble for an Exit Strategy -- recently it has taken markets a while to shake off "Event Days" euphoria so less intra-day whipsaw
Bond Market theme song should be "The World Turned Upside Down" -- yields declining with a Fed trying to stir up inflation
Mtl JP 12:41 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
what.. player worry ?
Mtl JP 12:31 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
unemployment claims print 304K
market zzzs
PAR 12:22 GMT July 10, 2014
US treasury Yields
Reply
Us treasury yields for all maturities are no longer set by the market but by traders at the FED 's hedge fund directed by superplanner Yellen .
Something like Salomon Brothers used to do in the past ,but they were put out of business for doing just that ..
Mtl JP 12:20 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
ib 11:33 I have no idea what quality sources posting folks on the forum may or not enjoy and benevolently share from time to time, so I just take everything at face value and with grain of salt.
-
Fed’s Bullard Says Unemployment Drop to Push Inflation
Jul 10, 2014
...“I think we are going to overshoot here on inflation,” Bullard said yesterday in a telephone interview from St. Louis. He predicted inflation of 2.4 percent at the end of 2015, “well above” the Fed’s 2 percent target.
“That is a break from where most of the committee seems to be, which is a very slow convergence of inflation to target,” he said
--
Bottom Line
everyone's opinion is valid.
until proven otherwise.
Porto Cubriclas 12:17 GMT July 10, 2014
Espirito Santo - Amen
Aparently no.
He is really the face of Banco Espirito Santo.
PAR 12:07 GMT July 10, 2014
Espirito Santo - Amen
Apparently Christiano Ronaldo is the official face of
Banco Espirito Santo . And most probably he is not doing that for free.
So ECB before you sent money , please check the accounts .
Mtl JP 12:04 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
red 11:05 101.50 probably reasonable partial tp if when seen
GVI Forex john 11:51 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
As Jay said in his video, 1.3600 is the key. I would call it the tipping point
eu pat 11:43 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
yes John, this EZ banak sector can bring a lot of noise next weeks...we will see, but euro looks bad...
eu pat 11:39 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
KaL ,it is possible now...for me its mixed..flat or slightly dovn..if I will see some level later on I will buy again...and post here..
GVI Forex john 11:37 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
pat happy to help. Yes the set-up has changed for now. Focus is now suddenly on the EZ banking sector. We will have to see if this spreads beyond Portugal. For it to last we will need an ongoing flow of news to fuel the new set-up.
Paris ib 11:33 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
JP - u don't think I'm relying on some statistic to estimate int capital flows do u? I'm not. USD/JPY is a bit of a litmus test, specially with the whole world short JPY. So u got currencies, TIC data, the relative performance of asset markets (JPY and EUR bonds have outperformed the US market) and a bit of guess work. Throw in geopolitics n the likely consequences of US foreign policy, the move away from the use of USD and viola' - as the French say.
eu pat 11:31 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
Thanks John..of course, you are correct...just my mistake of U. S datas.. as well my position was wrong..after UKTrade Balance...it was wrong decision...now is gbp set more for bears..USD looks good before U.S datas...better is close with small losse at these casees (news and set up changing))
SaaR KaL 11:30 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
I Like 1.7070 Pat
Mtl JP 11:25 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
looks like US stocks should open sharply down
-
-- US weekly jobless claims 8:30 a.m. ET exp.: 320K vs 315K prev
GVI Forex john 11:25 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
U.S. weekly Jobless Claims are due at 12:30 GMT. Seen unchanged at 315K.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
pat, ADP was last week.
eu pat 11:21 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
closed for minus 10 pips///set up is bad... USD is prepared for U.S ADP datas..
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:20 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
101.21 is key support (recent low) - it is also important for if it holds, then other currencies would have to bear the brunt of JOIY crosses if current risk off mood intensifies.
PAR 11:19 GMT July 10, 2014
Espirito Santo - Amen
Reply
By David Román and Carla Canivete
MADRID — Espírito Santo Financial Group SA, the controlling shareholder of Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo SA, Thursday said it has suspended trading in its own shares and bonds.
In a news release, Espírito Santo Financial Group said the suspension was due to “ongoing material difficulties at its largest shareholder Espírito Santo International S.A.” It didn’t elaborate further.
Shares of Banco Espírito Santo PT:BES -17.24% , which haven’t been suspended, tumbled in early trade in Lisbon, and the local blue-chip index fell over 3%.
The move comes after the Portuguese stock-market imposed a temporary ban on short selling to stem panic selling of shares in both ESFG and BES. Short selling is the practise of selling shares not already owned by investors before repurchasing them
SaaR KaL 11:15 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Cause generally a buy
Date Avg
Jul/10/14 1.3848
Jun/07/15 1.4832
into week trend
Exp 1.3620 --> now
Exp_6 1.3636 ---> next week
week range 1.3731 1.3509
london red 11:05 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Usdjpy long tail on hourly candle. Possible double bottom if can get back above 40/50. Long 27 stop under 20
Mtl JP 11:03 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
BoE keeping everything pat...
gbpusd still above 1.71
-
short some US 10-yr note (or long some usdyen)
w/usual caveat
GVI Forex john 10:59 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
JP- USDX is useless. Its just the EURUSD.
Mtl JP 10:53 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
can not be everything. the usd must be UP agaisnt something seeing as the USDX broke back UP over the 80 line
GVI Forex john 10:52 GMT July 10, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply
EURUSD feeling the weight of the intra-EZ risk-off trade. 1.3600 in sight, but its a slow motion trade.
Mtl JP 10:47 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
Paris ib 09:39 I don't want to be facetious, but are the international capital flows pristine numbers ?
GVI Forex john 10:47 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
JP- everything is perfectly correlated today Bonds to S&P perfect. Same for USDJPY to S&P. All tick for tick.
Mtl JP 10:42 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
near perfect inverse pip-for-pip dance between usdyen and US 10-yr note
GVI Forex john 10:37 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Risk-off
DJ -132
S&P -16
10-yr
US 2.507% -8bp
EZ 1.170% -6bp
UK 2.580% -8bp
PO 3.990% +21bp
BOE at the top of the hour.
eu pat 10:29 GMT July 10, 2014
gbp/usd
Reply
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
I buy GBP/[email protected] SL 1.70565...30 minutes before BoE...
Very risk trade...please do not folow and if, make your own analyze to be sure.....
SaaR KaL 10:26 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPJPY 176.5 Is next
SaaR KaL 10:16 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Cable wants 1.7340 in a week or 2
SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
gold and silver should start selling
PAR 09:59 GMT July 10, 2014
Germany becoming Japan
Reply
Bund yields at record lows and falling . Rumors of some huge margin calls at hedge funds betting against bunds.
PAR 09:56 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
Portugese market down over 4 % as scandals with Espirito Sancto and opaque financials stuctures come to light .
Paris ib 09:55 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
The time schedule in 2009 was 2018 as the target year for replacing the USD as an international reserve currency. That schedule may have been brought forward. We are half way from 2014..... so things are happening. And there is a clearly stated DESIRE to do this.
From 2009 - USD as reserve currency
Paris ib 09:49 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
nh - "there is no stomach nor desire for a USD alternative"
Where the h.ell have you been?
"These plans will change the face of international financial transactions," one Chinese banker said. "America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate."
Putin Advisor Proposes “Anti-Dollar Alliance”
Robert Fisk in 2009
Paris ib 09:39 GMT July 10, 2014
Global Markets News
JP - I don't care a dam.n about inflation / deflation / the definition of unemployment and all those 'statistics' which are supposed to tell us about the economy. Most of those statistics are manipulated and therefore useless in any case. What I care about is the direction of international capital flows. That's it. And what I watch is USD/JPY. The U.S. has been living off international capital flows from Asia for decades. That has now changed. And the impact on U.S. economic activity will not be good. All those calls for USD/JPY at 110 are a joke in my opinion. What happens when we see real capital repatriation will be mind boggling for most people. And the vulnerable economies are those with large foreign debts and large current account deficits. And that is the definition, by and large, of all the Anglo Saxon economies. World reset.
GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr bund now 1.18%, -5bp on EZ flight to safety.
GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Banco Espirito Sancto (BES) worries certainly a reason why Portuguese yields are higher and also a weight om the prices for other peripheral bonds this week. They are giving prime government bonds a bid.
This raises doubts about the wisdom of recent moves out of the prime credits in the EZ to the higher yielders? They had higher yields for a reason!
BES fueling the risk-off trade today. See story below.
Frankly I don't see how this can be EUR positive? Any thoughts?
PAR 09:14 GMT July 10, 2014
Greece
Reply
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) climbed from previous 26.8% to 27.3% in April
SaaR KaL 09:11 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
roughly for a week
Pair High Low
EUR/USD 1.3683 1.3468
XAU/USD 1,353.7191 1,298.1518
GBP/USD 1.7363 1.7078
XAG/USD 21.8628 20.5104
EUR/JPY 140.2673 137.6951
USD/JPY 103.3170 101.4190
GBP/JPY 178.4565 174.1423
USD/CHF 0.9042 0.8862
GBP/CHF 1.5567 1.5265
AUD/USD 0.9512 0.9204
EUR/AUD 1.4741 1.4280
EUR/CAD 1.4635 1.4240
EUR/GBP 0.7954 0.7810
NZD/USD 0.8877 0.8657
USD/CAD 1.0751 1.0517
GBP/AUD 1.8696 1.8116
GBP/CAD 1.8551 1.8078
GBP/NZD 1.9912 1.9374
AUD/NZD 1.0825 1.0516
NAS100 4,046.4905 3,872.0710
GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT July 10, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Markets
have gone back to a risk-off posture in the wake of the Fed Minutes
released yesterday. some had been expecting a more hawkish
posture after a stronger June jobs report, even though the data came
out after the FOMC. EURUSD continues to try to distance
itself from 1.3600.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mostly lower. Yields on the European
periphery are up again. The German 10-yr bund is 1.20%, -3bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.62% -5bp. Odds still favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.53%, -5bp.
- Equities closed mixed in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. share futures are down.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
PAR 08:44 GMT July 10, 2014
Bance Espirito Sancto
The family behind Portugal's largest listed bank by assets intends to ask creditors for an extension of the maturities on debts issued by its Luxembourg-registered holding company and a possible debt-for-equity swap, Portuguese media reported on Wednesday.
Espirito Santo International (ESI) has been under scrutiny since an audit found "material irregularities" at the Espirito Santo family's holding company and BES shares have slumped sharply on worries that the bank's capital base could be affected.
Analysts cited the potential risk for the Portuguese financial sector as a whole for the jump in bond yields, despite repeated government assertions that BES is isolated from the holding company's problems and there is no risk to public finances.
SaaR KaL 08:37 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
EURGBP
Time to short
tgt .7800
london red 08:37 GMT July 10, 2014
May 2014 U.K. Trade GBP (bn)
yes thats why cable not down too much on numbers. imports increased more than exports, suggests demand side firm while strength of sterling not having too much effect on exports yet.
its a shame as cable could do with a flush out to 7040/70 before 17203 retest.
GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT July 10, 2014
May 2014 U.K. Trade GBP (bn)
UK trade worse than expected GBP down. Traditionally, UK trade has been highly correlated with economic growth. Imports increase as the economy grows.
PAR 08:21 GMT July 10, 2014
Bance Espirito Sancto
Reply
Portugal to follow Cyprus example .
Bloomberg News
Espirito Santo Creditors Doubt Containment on Missed Payment
By John Glover, Joao Lima and Abigail Moses July 10, 2014
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-07-09/espirito-santo-creditors-doubt-containment-after-missed-payments
SaaR KaL 07:54 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
EURAUD Seems Like a good short here
SaaR KaL 05:28 GMT July 10, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
US Indicies Buys
Stock Last Short Term High Short Term Low
^FVX 1.67 1.86 1.61
^GSPC 1,972.83 2,006.19 1,958.67
^HGX 204.28 212.03 203.41
^HSI 23,176.07 24,263.79 22,993.76
^IXIC 4,419.03 4,568.27 4,404.08
^MID 1,422.96 1,467.29 1,421.63
^n225 15,302.65 16,026.44 15,172.54
^NBI 2,681.32 2,835.97 2,673.51
^NWX 332.53 346.89 327.45
^NYA 11,005.50 11,194.54 10,949.31
^PSE 1,868.17 1,919.55 1,856.59
^RUA 1,177.13 1,202.51 1,171.13
^RUI 1,099.22 1,119.66 1,092.40
^RUT 1,173.81 1,244.79 1,178.62
^SML 676.23 709.71 676.74
^TNX 2.55 2.72 2.51
^TYX 3.36 3.52 3.33
syd sf 03:25 GMT July 10, 2014
thoughts
Reply
No actual open Positions to comment on as yet but just looking at a few things
gbpusd - looks like correction ended and we need a new high 1.7205
prefer +gbpaud
Gold - 1326 achieved new target 1344
system shows 1308 / 1326 / 1344
audnzd appears on track for 10620-50 even though we squared up yesterday - so probably no trade for my book since it is approaching target.
hopefully have actual dealing levels tomorrow
gt>
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:27 GMT July 10, 2014
AceTrader Jul 10: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
10 Jul 2014 02:12GMT
USD/JPY - ... Despite yesterday's brief bounce to 101.85 after the release of FOMC minutes, the greenback subsequently retreated and ratcheted lower to 101.51 in Asia.
Offers are now tipped at 101.75-80 and more at 101.95-00 with stops seen above 102.00.
On the downside, bids are located at 101.30-25 with stops seen below 101.20 but demand from various accounts is located above 101.00 level.
On the data front, Japan's machinery core orders fell by 19.5% from April, the most on record in May since 1987, suggesting that companies remain cautious about deploying record cash reserves into investment.
Bloomberg news reported earlier that Bank of Japan officials see buying exchange-traded funds based on the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 as a future option to boost the impact of unprecedented easing and encourage companies to deploy cash for investment, according to people familiar with the central bank's discussions.
Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand PMI, Japan domestic CGPI, machinery orders, consumer confidence, Australia employment, China exports, imports, trade balance, France CPI, industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK RICS housing survey, trade balance, BoE rate decision, Canada housing price index, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales and wholesale inventories.
HK [email protected] 02:01 GMT July 10, 2014
Australua
Immigrants job hub. More boat people from Indonesia on the way!!!
HK [email protected] 02:00 GMT July 10, 2014
Australua
Bad mixed bag:(
Australia Part-time employment increased to 19700 in June from previous -27000
Australia Fulltime employment declined to -3800 in June from previous 22200
GVIForex 01:37 GMT July 10, 2014
Australua
Reply
NEWS: AUSTRALIA JUN EMPLOYED PERSONS +15900M/M; MNI MEDIAN +12000
NEWS: AUSTRALIA JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.0%; MNI MEDIAN 5.9%
HK [email protected] 00:27 GMT July 10, 2014
Exclusive: Commerzbank may pay $600 million-$800 million to settle U.S. probe - sources
Reply
(Reuters) - German lender Commerzbank AG is expected to pay between $600 million and $800 million to resolve investigations into its dealings with Iran and other countries under U.S. sanctions, sources familiar with the matter said.
The penalty, previously reported to be more than $500 million, includes a demand from New York's top banking regulator, Benjamin Lawsky, for more than $300 million from the bank, the sources said.
HK [email protected] 00:22 GMT July 10, 2014
All in a rush to buy AUD B4 Asia opens.
All in a hope that the figures will not disappoint(like the trade balance). If figures disappoint, the exit will be too narrow to accommodate all the rush.
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.