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Forex Forum Archive for 07/15/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


HK [email protected] 23:59 GMT July 15, 2014
Philippines probably under a serious state of calamity.
Reply   


Probably the whole Bicol region is in ruine, as well much of the northern part of Samar island. Expect big damages to the agriculture.
So what can one expect from a storm of 150-220 Km/hr wind speed?

Check if you are dealing COPRA if the Tech. are favorable for a buy. Philippine peso will drop badly in the next few days.

Be ahead of the future news!

dc CB 23:41 GMT July 15, 2014
Mo' Free Money, Mo'Stock buybacks. Recovery for the working stiff?
Reply   
Unlike others who focus on INTC's just announced revenue and EPS numbers (both of which beat), we were far more interested with what the company is actually doing with its operating cash flow, because keeping track of INTC's capital allocation decisions tells us much more about what the company thinks of the immediate future and its growth potential.

." Because of the $5.5 billion in cash from operations, Intel promptly returned well over half to shareholders, of which $1.1 billion in the form of Dividends, and another $2.1 billion as stock buybacks.

How big is the $2.1 billion number in context? This big.

(chart)

And don't worry: this runaway train isn't stopping any time soon - the company announced that the board has authorized a whopping $20 billion increase to its share repurchase program, and anticipates spending a massive $4 billion on stock buybacks in the next quarter alone!

So much for a pick up in CapEx spending at yet another company.

Stock Buybacks Slowing Down In Q2? Don't Make Intel Laugh

tokyo ginko 23:16 GMT July 15, 2014
oil offers another short
Reply   
stops @ 100.3, offers another short opportunity to target 97

sd sf 23:15 GMT July 15, 2014
Morning
Reply   
GBP

stops triggered through 24 .. bots bought 32 34 39 and 40 sold @78

ever since they have been buying at 39-40-41-42 and selling on blips up .. there stops now @16

all in all this pair has been pretty much zero sum last 24 hours.

I don't think buying during the day is much good with more numbers later - could easily run down to 10-15 at some points due to volatility.

Eur

this one worked alot better - and this morning seen both sides

buying low 60s but when bounced to 70717273 all the short term bots wanted to sell.

Mixed too lower in this pair.

NZD really made a move this morning - so hopefully that can shake up some of the other pairs and induce more volatility.

GT>

Tallinn viies 22:10 GMT July 15, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sold euros at 1,3568.
target 1,3485.
no stop at the moment
hopefully finally euro will be ready to move.

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT July 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



July 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, CA- Bank of Canada US- Yellen

  • Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP.
  • Europe: GB- Employment,
  • North America: CA- Bank of Canada Us- Weekly Mortgages Yellen, Weekly Crude.


Syd 20:43 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen: Fed may move sooner if labor market keeps surprising
Reply   
The Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates sooner and higher than expected if the labor market keeps surprising the central bank, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday.

Fed Chairwoman

GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT July 15, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -4.8 vs. -2.5 exp vs. -2.400 prev.
Gasoline: -1.600 vs. +1.0 exp vs. -0.580 prev.
Distillates: +1.300 vs. +2.0 exp vs. 0.230 prev.
Cap/Util: 92.6% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.60% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 20:24 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Imho only way on USDJPY is up . BOJ even more dovish than Yellen . In medium term USDJPY 105,00.

GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT July 15, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

WEDNESDAY July 16, 2014
GB Employment 
CA BOC Rates+MPR
THURSDAY July 17, 2014
EZ Final HICP
US Initial Claims
US House Starts /Permits
US TIC Net Flows
US Ind Prod
FRB Beige Book  
FRIDAY July 18, 2014
CA BOC CPI
US U Mich prelim

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT July 15, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:03 GMT July 15, 2014
Citi's Big Fine
Reply   
who is Richard Bowen

Who Is the Unsung Hero of the $7 Billion Citigroup Settlement?

GVI Forex john 18:55 GMT July 15, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


GVI Forex john 18:21 GMT July 15, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mixed on the day. I am surprised that the EUR remains mixed following the slide in the EURUSD.




GVI Forex Blog 18:04 GMT July 15, 2014
Fed Chair Yellen Dovish. U.K. Prices Up. Weak German ZEW. Yellen To Testify Again on Wednesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, CA- Bank of Canada US- Yellen

The primary focus Tuesday was the first leg of two days of semi-annual Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. As expected, she maintained a generally dovish tone but indicated at some point the central bank will be forced to start to raise rates to normalize policy. On Wednesday she goes before the House. U.S. June Retail Sales were mixed to higher after revisions. The July Empire PMI handily beat street expectations.

Fed Chair Yellen Dovish. U.K. Prices Up. Weak German ZEW. Yellen To Testify Again on Wednesday

Mtl JP 17:39 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

JPMorgan Chase sofar the largest U.S. bank by assets

Slide 1

Slide 2
courtesy businessinsider

dc CB 17:31 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Ms. Yellen faced tough questioning about financial regulation from several Democratic senators. The sharpest questions closed the hearing.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat, asked Ms. Yellen whether JPMorgan Chase had complied with a legal requirement to provide the Fed with a credible plan for its orderly dissolution, should that become necessary.

“Can you honestly say that JPMorgan could be resolved in a rapid and orderly fashion with no threats to the economy and no need for a taxpayer bailout?,” Ms. Warren asked.

When Ms. Yellen avoided the question, Ms. Warren persisted, “Have they ever gotten to a plan that you can say with a straight face is credible?”

Ms. Yellen demurred again and the hearing ended.

Ms. Warren walked over to Ms. Yellen and kissed her cheek. The two women laughed, and chatted, and left.

Yellen Tells Congress That Fed Will Continue to Help Economy

SaaR KaL 17:09 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

How a Loser Looks like
https://www.google.com/search?client=gmail&rls=gm&q=Stalin


How a real man Looks like
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Hawking

SaaR KaL 16:54 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades



Amazing News
Wow..they tell us things we never knew
Unlike Scientists and Nobel Prize winners

SaaR KaL 16:52 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades



L.A Times Latest

SaaR KaL 16:50 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Mr. Chiwawa
Hinted that EURUSD should be within a day or 2 tops
1.3550 and below
He say, world order starts with Longing EURUSD
he says; Min EURUSD is 1.3480
What a Gulu!!

Mtl JP 16:45 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

PAR what do u think, risk-wise , of selling usdyen here for 101.40 trgt with 20 pip stop ?

SaaR KaL 16:42 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Listening to Mr. Chiwawa Speech now
He is sort chines / Nepali...he don use a microphone
No one knows him
Talking Global economics
He don take drugs like Ghaddafi (Bless his sole)
Must now listen between the words...shhhh

PAR 16:41 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Evidence long term unemployed are finding jobs , part time jobs .

SaaR KaL 16:34 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Housing in the USA still very bullish for a while
easily another 50% within a year or 2.
Does Stalin tell us?...Does he know?

SaaR KaL 16:30 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

I agree, If I was Russian.
Relatives of Stalin...
Woah

PAR 16:29 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Yellen US economy is soo bad that we cannot raise rates .
I am one of the few people who are fully employed . The rest works part time . Even Obama is a part time president , his first job is to play golf .

Do not misunderstand me . I like golf a lot .

Mtl JP 16:28 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

KaL nothing u can not ignore

dc CB 16:28 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen



tomorrows House Q&A may be a bit more rambunctious

SaaR KaL 16:16 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

WHo is Yellen?

Mtl JP 16:15 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

apparently Yellen never mentioned the stock values of social media and biotech companies in either her prepared remarks or answers to the questions from the senators. That reference was in a separate Fed monetary policy report submitted to Congress along with Yellen’s testimony.

GVIForex 16:13 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

CNBC is comparing the Fed warning over some valuations as Yellen's irrational exuberance moment.

dc CB 16:11 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Eliz Warren asks Yellen about TBTF and with a 5 minute time limit....annnnnnnd .......Meeting's over.

GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2.538%

GVIForex Jay Meisler 16:06 GMT July 15, 2014
Don't Fight the Central Banks
Reply   
FOREX TRADERS...

Don't Fight the Central Banks

Dillon AL 16:04 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

Sell the uptic back to close to 1300

dc CB 16:04 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

Sit on Hands and wait until 7-28 for the FMOC SmackDown
Exit on the first Plunge.

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

so what is the GC trade next now that the Honorable one is quiet ?

GVI Forex john 15:58 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

U.S. 10-yr now back to 2.55% area as shares ease.

dc CB 15:56 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

this was for SJ, who earlier noted that paper Gold trading was difficult.

actually, pretty easy, just go short whenever the FMOC has a meeting, whenever Ms Chair has a testimony before the House/Senate.

Cuts down on the number of trades per year, but 70 to 90% chance of being on the right side of the trade.

PAR 15:55 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Everything is complicated so we can not raise rates.

Mtl JP 15:51 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

dc CB... odds of the order being filled are ___ ?

PAR 15:51 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

The bigger the banks , the better , because they can then pay $ 250.00 for an ex fed speachers .

Inflation will never be a problem as we can manipulate inflation figures.

We have such a big balance sheet hat we have everyting under control.

I kow everything on beforehand because I chair the FED .

Mtl JP 15:48 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

it seems usdyen is currently more tightly linked with the priceaction of the 10-yr note than w/the S&P

dc CB 15:46 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

The break was precipitated by the sale of over 17,000 contracts (or over $2.3 Billion notional).

(chart)

Gold Plunges Back Below $1300 As "Someone" Dumps $2.3 Billion In Futures

Mtl JP 15:44 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

note that currently aud and cad$ trade approximately in harmony

GVI Forex john 15:42 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Its hard to characterize the markets today, but I guess I would have to say generally that they has developed into a RISK-OFF bias. A lower EURUSD is consistent with that perspective. S&P is off its highs and appears to be trying to drag the USDJPY lower.

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

usdcad 1.08 not likely to be resistance but a door to a rally higher

SaaR KaL 15:38 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD Tops 1.0800
Might see 1.0520 next

GVI Forex john 15:35 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets seem to be getting the message that Fed Chair Yellen might be starting to prepare Congress and participants for a policy tightening in 2015. Her words generally maintained a dovish posture but she seems to be walking a narrow line.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are now steady on the day.  Yields on the European periphery are lower. The German 10-yr bund is 1.21%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.65%  +4bp. Odds favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend, especially with inflation rising.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.57%,  +2bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are ending mixed to lower. U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 15:32 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Google’s new initiative, dubbed “Project Zero,” aims to hunt cyber-threats and identify potential vulnerabilities on the Web that could be exploited by “criminal or state-sponsored” actors...
-
Google the good?

SaaR KaL 15:30 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

In General
I prefer to long the EURUSD then CABLE

GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

red that is the 10-yr gilt? We had it at 2.610% BEFORE the hotter than expected inflation figures earlier today. GBP up vs the USD and EUR.

GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT July 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Fed Chair Yellen is testifying before the Senate this morning and more or less reiterating all her standard policy positions. Surprising nobody

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Accentuate the Negative in Yellen Testimony

london red 15:18 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

2.585/59

GVI Forex john 15:17 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

10-yr now pushing 2,57% level as Yellen continues.

london red 15:17 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

10 year approaching res at 2.685/2.69 so probably done for day still not bad for a spin on essentially the same statement.

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

10-yr now yielding 2.56%
still a pittance

dc CB 15:06 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

one meaning.

if you believe what you are saying is the truth, you are indeed telling the truth, even if you're not.

SaaR KaL 15:03 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Red
I see 1.53...Yes
I do not think just yet
Maybe in another month it will turn

Gold Long till 1290
tgt 1378

Mtl JP 15:00 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

which does the "Honorable" prefix imply in the US ?

1. not disposed to cheat or defraud; not deceptive or fraudulent
2. worthy of being honored; entitled to honor and respect
3. used as a title of respect
4. adhering to ethical and moral principles
5. deserving of esteem and respect

kl fs 14:58 GMT July 15, 2014
eurgbp
Reply   
to me eurgbp looks like sliding to 0.7780 eventually

GVIForex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

As posted on GVIForex by one of its valued members

Mkts seem to be reacting now to her comment that Fed's consensus view on rates is higher than what mkts are currently pricing in.

kl fs 14:56 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

sell euro on bounces today, at least it is below 1.36 now

london red 14:53 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

cable key day trade area 7120/30, below there its likely to lose the lot, so a must bounce zone for bulls. if 10 year gives up worth a long there into data tomorrow morning from uk.

kl fs 14:50 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

now euro finally going down

dc CB 14:44 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Janet sez Long Term Unemployment is going down because long term unemployed are finding jobs, not because they are giving up and dropping out.

SaaR KaL 14:42 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Getting ready to long EURUSD for a long time
1.3550 area tgt 1.3730
Shorting USDCAD and soon USDCHF at 0.9865

if cable does not go lower then 1.7080 next day
it is rallying IMO to 1.7340

Maybe Next day AUDNZD SHorts around 1.0770 and above
tgt 1.0550

tokyo ginko 14:37 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

should then buy usdjpy

tokyo ginko 14:32 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

-10% ..take it with a pinch of salt..then again, wages need to increase for consumption and spending to pick up

london red 14:25 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

latest spin...following carney mansion with veiled message that markets not anticipating earlier rate rise

london red 14:15 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

comments re continued labour market gains resulting in meeting dual objectives the only positive spin for dollar bulls.

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Yellen reading her prepared text. Its already been released.

Bottom-line she is keeping her dovish posture as widely expected.

GVIForex 14:08 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
10:00 (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Economy is continuing to improve but recovery is not yet complete, high degree of monetary accomodation remains appropriate - Congressional testimony
- rates would be more accomodative if the economic performance is disappointing
- inflation has moved up in recent months - some valuations seem stretched in some sectors such as low rate corporate debt; real estate, equities and corporate bonds valuations within historical norms
- slack remains in labor markets and have only seen slow wage growth
- remain worried about the slowdown in the housing recovery
- rates could increase sooner and faster if the labor market continues to improve faster than was expected

- Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 14:07 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

yellen says nothing new, dollar negative. 17203 between 17337 for cable. both biggies. cant see much follow through before jobs tomorrow but if 17180 holds market will have confidence to go higher.

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT July 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Business Inventories
Reply   



ALERT
+0.50% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.60% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:50 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.552% +2bp

GVI Forex Blog 13:47 GMT July 15, 2014 Reply   
July 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, CA- Bank of Canada US- Yellen

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 16, 2014

GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT July 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP, CA- Bank of Canada US- Yellen

  • Far East: NZ- CPI, CN- GDP.
  • Europe: GB- Employment,
  • North America: CA- Bank of Canada Us- Weekly Mortgages Yellen, Weekly Crude.


Mtl JP 13:36 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Nowcast Model of Japan' q2 GDP
courtesy zerohedge

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

ginko what, do you think, are the odds of japan q2 GDP going to -10% or more as Bloomberg own prediction yardstick seems to suggest vs -4.5% ?
tia

GVIForex Jay Meisler 13:17 GMT July 15, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

Waiting for Yellen in a market hyper sensitive e to economic news

tokyo ginko 13:07 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

broke 100, sell rally continues...

london red 12:52 GMT July 15, 2014
U.S. Empire PMI

empire state is first look at Q3, given where we are in the calendar i would rate this much higher than retail sales. so far Q3 has started strongly.

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT July 15, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Retail Sales

U.S. Retail Sales. Headline weaker than expected, but previous data revised higher.

Mtl JP 12:37 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News



5 minutes after US Retail Sales eurdlr sees a sub 5pip +/- reaction giving it a "Z" reaction to release grade
-
according to Hilsenrath: What to watch in Fed Chair Janel Yellen’s Testimony This Week - wsj

GVI Forex john 12:36 GMT July 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Retail Sales
Reply   



ALERT
+0.20% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.50%)pre
Ex-Auto: +0.40% v +0.60% exp. v +0.10% (r +0.40) pre
Ex-Auto/Gas: +0.40% v +0.50% exp. v 0.0% (r +0.20%) pre


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT July 15, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Import Prices
Reply   



ALERT
+0.10% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT July 15, 2014
U.S. Empire PMI
Reply   



ALERT
+25.6 vs. +17.0 exp. vs. +19.3 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:15 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News

according to Bloomberg:

A Guide to Yellen Testimony: No Rush to Tighten
--
15/07/14 12:30 A US Ret Sales May 0.60% 0.30%
me thinks grade "A" is too generous
release is unlikely to generate >50 +/- pip player reaction

Mtl JP 12:02 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy

SJ - Trading Paper Gold has is not same as trading physical one oz or one Kilo Gold bars.

there is no "safe way" trading Paper Gold.
One suggestion: get familiar with Paper Gold's contracts and expiry dates and take some time observing Paper Gold's price action 5 days before and 3 days after those dates.
-
for some riski and some less riski Paper Gold trade ideas see gv's Gold Forum
gl & gt

GVI Forex john 11:48 GMT July 15, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mixed on the day. EURAUD up after RBA talks the AUD down. EUR is still below its 20-day moving averages in most key relationships. Exception: EURAUD. EURUSD 1.3600 key to just about everything.




Stockholm SJ 11:40 GMT July 15, 2014
Gold trading strategy
Reply   
Trading gold needs a different strategy for normal currencies trading. I have seen that trading gold is very risky and frequently too fast. Hence, while it is sweet to make quick money, it is also very sad to lose huge money. So what best method or system is there to trade this? I know of some trader who specializes on the trade. More light is needed here.

tokyo ginko 11:26 GMT July 15, 2014
Day's Trades

oil to break 100

GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT July 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP currency soared after June UK inflation data surprised to the upside. The GBP/USD bounced from 1.7070 towards 1.7150 after CPI YoY reading came in at 1.9% vs. 1.6%e. The data provided another notch towards earlier-than-expected BOE rate hike expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Jun CPI data surprises to the upside and back near the BOE 2.0% inflation target; German July ZEW Survey comes in below expectations

GVIForex Jay Meisler 10:56 GMT July 15, 2014
dxy

Outside day in GBPUSD, marginally so far on both sides

Mtl JP 09:46 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News

Emerging nations plan their own World Bank, IMF

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fed up with U.S. dominance of the global financial system, five emerging market powers this week will launch their own versions of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. .../..

GVI Forex Blog 09:29 GMT July 15, 2014
U.K. Inflation Data Hot. German ZEW Disappoints. Yellen Testifies Tuesday and Wednesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Empire PMI, Retail Sales, Yellen

July German ZEW data were weaker than expected. We have been seeing signs of a weakening of the German economy recently. These data could be a cause for additional worry at the ECB.

U.K. Inflation Data Hot. German ZEW Disappoints. Yellen Testifies Tuesday and Wednesday

Syd 09:28 GMT July 15, 2014
Citi Sees Mixed Fortunes Ahead For Sterling --
Reply   
The spike in U.K. CPI will likely please the Bank of England and keep markets betting on early stimulus removal, says Citi's Head of G10 FX strategy Valentin Marinov. This, along with the weak July ZEW survey, makes EUR/GBP a buy. However, Mr. Marinov says the negative shift seen in market sentiment toward GBP/USD is here to stay, and he would sell on rallies going into this afternoon's U.S. events (retail sales, Yellen). Further out, Mr. Marinov says the risk going in the September Scottish referendum could discourage the market from buying GBP/USD. GBP/USD now at 1.7140, EUR/GBP 0.7929.

Syd 09:25 GMT July 15, 2014
DJ U.S. Treasurys Gain As Risk-Off Rally Picks up -
Reply   
--U.S. Treasurys follow Bunds higher as troubled Portuguese lender Banco Espirito Santo (BES.LN) shares slump and Germany's ZEW data disappoints. Ahead, Fed Chair Janet Yellen's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Banking Committee of the U.S. Senate will be closely monitored as the Fed chair has constantly aimed to keep interest rate speculation in check in the past, says Helaba. In the data space, June U.S. retail sales and import prices and the July Empire State index are due. The September Treasury is 6/32 higher at 125-050 and the 10-year yields 2.528%

london red 09:25 GMT July 15, 2014
dxy
Reply   
key close eye on dollar index today. just moved above 200 day ma (8026) next 144 ema (8032) last high 8035. if latter taken looking at a bigger move higher to recent high (8091) with 8052 scale in res along the way.

london red 09:19 GMT July 15, 2014
EUR/USD Takes A Hit From EUR/GBP Selloff, Weak ZEW DJ

eurgbp has been helping euro stay afloat above 3575 recently, but todays better than expected uk inflation sees a break back below 7950 with 7907 at risk again. a break below there suggests a much deeper fall to 7750/00 with eurusd likely to go down with it. but for eurusd to stay below 3575 you fell yellen would need to be more hawkish. in short it means you cant see eurusd much lower with a dovish yellen and that will help eurgbp to a certain extent. but given how the technicals are set up, any move to the downside if seen, is likely to be a large one for both eurusd and eurgbp. so if the levels break its worth following otherwise its as we were and fade is the play of the day.

GVI Forex john 09:12 GMT July 15, 2014
July 2014 German ZEW Survey

German ZEW Survey.both indices fall, but current conditions ease faster than expectations. EURUSD tests below 1.3600.


Syd 09:08 GMT July 15, 2014
EUR/USD Takes A Hit From EUR/GBP Selloff, Weak ZEW DJ
Reply   
-EUR/USD wipes out the day's gains, impacted by a sharp selloff in EUR/GBP after the spike in U.K. inflation data, and then drops further after the July German ZEW survey disappointed. Continuing worries over Portugal's BES--its shares trade 15% lower--are also doing the single currency no favors. EUR/USD is now at 1.3594, the day's low, from 1.3628. Next support is at 1.3575.

Syd 09:06 GMT July 15, 2014
Australian Dollar Is Overvalued, Says RBA's Edwards
Reply   

SYDNEY--The Australian dollar is overvalued, and any relief for the nation's exporters may have to wait until the U.S. begins raising interest rates, an economic policy maker said Tuesday.

John Edwards, a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest-rate-setting board, said he agreed with central bank Gov. Glenn Stevens that the currency was too high--especially when weighed against prices for commodities such as iron ore, which is languishing around two-year lows.

Mr. Edwards's remarks will strengthen a view among currency traders that the central bank is becoming more concerned over the currency's level, thus boosting the chances of further rate cuts to try to drive it lower.

The Aussie dollar, which slumped about 15% last year, has recovered over the past several months to about US$0.94. At the start of the year, traders had been confident that with eight successive rate cuts since late 2011 helping to support the economy, the next move in interest rates would almost certainly be up.

But as the central bank's jawboning on the Aussie dollar has intensified in recent weeks, futures markets have begun pricing in an even chance of another rate cut before the end of the year.

"The currency does look a bit overvalued and I've no doubt we'd be better off with a cheaper currency," Mr. Edwards said in an interview.

"I hope to see it. We might have to wait until global markets are more convinced that the U.S. is actually about to move on the overnight rate."

Mr. Edwards declined to point to a desirable level for the currency that would help restore Australia's competitiveness, beyond saying that "lower would be better."

The Australian dollar has risen by about 8% since January as foreign money has flooded back into the economy. Australia offers investors comparatively higher bond yields, backed by a triple-A credit rating.

Last year's slide in the value of the Aussie dollar against its U.S. counterpart was due partly to expectations that the U.S. and European economies would recover more quickly this year than has transpired.

The Australian dollar often moves in sync with commodity prices. But it hasn't tracked commodity-price falls so far this year, further pinching the earnings of exporters, including mining companies and manufacturers.

"We have seen lower commodity prices, which would often be associated with a lower currency," Mr. Edwards said. "In our terms, of course, we have record-low interest rates. Our problem is that they are zero in the U.S., the U.K. and Japan."

Earlier Tuesday, the central bank said in minutes of its July 1 policy meeting that interest rates are set to remain low as economic growth remains patchy, and that the Australian dollar's level remains a headwind for the economy.

Australia's benchmark cash rate has been on hold at a record-low 2.5% since August last year to cushion the resource-rich economy against a fading mining-investment boom that has been the mainstay of economic growth for the past decade. DJ

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT July 15, 2014
July 2014 German ZEW Survey

ZEW MUCH weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT July 15, 2014
July 2014 German ZEW Survey
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Economic Expectations: 27.1 vs. +28.4 exp. vs. +29.8 prev.
Current Conditions: 61.8 vs. +67.4 exp. vs. +67.7 prev.


RELEASE: German ZEW Survey


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT July 15, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Markets are in a mixed risk posture early Tuesday after ECB President Draghi again fretted over the strength of the EUR on Monday.  Long the EURUSD might be becoming a risk on trade, but we are by no means certain about this. EURUSD 1.3600 is its current benchmark price.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower.  Yields on the European periphery are mixed. The German 10-yr bund is 1.19%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  -1bp. Odds still favor a +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend, especially with inflation rising.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.53%,  -2bp.
  • Equities closed higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. share futures are steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 08:40 GMT July 15, 2014
June 2014 UK CPI/RPIX

U.K. CPI & RPIX data rise by more than expected. GBPUSD rises on the prospect of a future policy tightening.

london red 08:40 GMT July 15, 2014
June 2014 UK CPI/RPIX

cable res at 50 then 80. carney up shortly. a lot of folk caught short so need to see back below 17120 quickly for downside to continue but you would think market wont have enough to hold above 80 ahead of yellen.

GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT July 15, 2014
June 2014 UK CPI/RPIX
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --


CPI mm: +0.20% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
CPI yy:+1.90% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.

RPIX yy: +2.70% vs. +2.50% exp. vs. +2.50% prev.

UK Core Output PPI
yy: +1.00% vs. 1.00% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.


RELEASE: Consumer Price Indices


TTN: Live News Special Offer

sd sf 07:11 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen

Yellen = LTCM

everything works while it works - but we all know how it ends - just have to stay solvent long enough.

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:44 GMT July 15, 2014
AceTrader Jul 15: Daily Outlook on Asian exotic USD/IDR
Reply   

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11720

15 Jul 2014 04:18GMT

Intra-day gap-up open confirms recent fall from
June's 12105 has made a low at 11520 last Thursday
and gain to 11745 (38.2% r) and later 11770 is seen.

Turn long on dips as only below 11660 would signal
temp. top is in place, risk weakness to 11615/20.


STRATEGY : Buy at 11700

OBJECTIVE : 11770

STOP-LOSS : 11670

RES : 11740/11770/11810

SUP : 11660/11615/11585

PAR 06:24 GMT July 15, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Yellen to say US interest to stay extremely low till 2020.

FED to continue reinvesting the interest collected on its Multi trillion portfolio .

Additional action to be taken if the DOW should fall again below 17000.

Thinking of forbidding the use of the word INFLATION .

Amman Amman 06:21 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News

It is good that "We have learned from your mistakes" keep the good work going :)

link

GVI Forex Blog 06:16 GMT July 15, 2014 Reply   
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.8%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.5%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 1,972 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - A

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China M2, new lending hit multi-month highs; BOJ maintains assessment, lowers GDP target - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:58 GMT July 15, 2014 Reply   
BOJ keeps its record stimulus unchanged. ECB President assures of their readiness to provide

Morning Briefing : 15-Jul-2014 -0357 GMT

Mtl JP 02:11 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News

the Opacity line is partially off the mark, namely w/respect to frugality of information.

Janet's July 2 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability speech took 3823 words to essentially say that:

1. Before 2008, we didn't know what we were doing.
2. We have learned from our mistakes.
3. The economic issues are highly complex.
4. The exact nature of economic causation remains a mystery.
5. We are working on emergency plans.
6. We have great confidence in these plans.
7. These plans have not yet been fully implemented.
8. We are not sure when they will be fully implemented.
9. We are monitoring the situation.
10. There are still important questions to be answered.
11. We as yet have no specific answers to any of these questions.
12. We are leaving our options open. credit

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:55 GMT July 15, 2014
AceTrader Jul 15: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views AUD/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

15 Jul 2014 01:29GMT

AUD/USD - Statement just released by RBA minutes of its July 1st monetary policy meeting, quote :

1 on present indications, prudent to have period of steady rates;
2 repeats A$ high by historical standards, particularly given drop in commodity prices;
3 A$ offering less assistance to the economy than it might otherwise;
4 board noted NZD and CAD also high, were most surprised by low level of US dollar;
5 members agreed was difficult to judge if low rates would offset mining, fiscal drag;
6 further substantial falls in mining investment expected, public demand to be weak;
7 economic growth seen a little below trend over coming year, inflation in target band;
8 significant amount of monetary stimulus already in place to support economy;
9 RBA saw some improvement in labour market, only moderate jobs growth expected;
10 household consumption had eased, liaison suggested retail sales little changed from may to June;
11 strong growth in home building expected, non-mining investment rising gradually;
12 labour costs subdued, members noted productivity had improved across economy.

AUD briefly dipped to intra-day low of 0.9384 b4 rebounding to 0.9402 after the minutes were released as Reuters headline: "Australia c.bank sets steady course for rates amid economy doubts" suggests no rate cut will be made any time soon.

Next RBA meeting will be on Aug 5.

dc CB 01:09 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News



the currency club

GVI Forex Blog 00:30 GMT July 15, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Fed chief to testify to Congress on Tuesday, Wednesday
* BOJ seen holding steady, but might cut growth projections
* Euro steady even after Draghi warns of strong currency risks

FOREX-Dollar on ice as markets await Yellen's testimony

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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