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Forex Forum Archive for 07/17/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


dc CB 21:29 GMT July 17, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

it's also OpEX for Stox and indexes for July

GVI Forex john 21:08 GMT July 17, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

FRIDAY July 18, 2014
CA BOC CPI
US U Mich prelim

sd sf 20:43 GMT July 17, 2014
Bunker Friday

my personal opinion which means little... in the scheme of things

liquidation friday .. all profitable positions will get closed

aud and nzd first -- then gbp

eur last.

I would imagine if BOJ doesn't say anything extraordinary - yen crosses will get hit.

gold up to 1326-34 area.

((the main reason is who wants to hold the opposite position over the weekend))

Syd 20:34 GMT July 17, 2014
White House placed on lockdown due to unattended package
Reply   
White House placed on lockdown due to unattended package

link

GVI Forex john 20:29 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

US intelligence confirms a SAM (surface-to-Air) missile to down the Malaysian Airline Jet.

london red 20:06 GMT July 17, 2014
Bunker Friday

s&p down 1% i guess its time to rally. breaking last weeks low? dont be silly. one way ticket. dont be short or you'll end up flipping burgers like the rest of them.
i heard there's an opening on cnbc. how did i do?

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

10-yr 2.455%.

GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT July 17, 2014
Bunker Friday

Twitter chatter and ABC reporting White House is on lockdown.

dc CB 19:49 GMT July 17, 2014
Bunker Friday



you forgot to add yesterday' lineup of "Big Investors" who said Gammy and the FMOC are clueless.

Paris ib 19:48 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

The reset speech

Lagarde

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:46 GMT July 17, 2014
Bunker Friday
Reply   
Russia sanctions => Malaysia airline crash => and now Israel land forces going into Gaza => stocks cratering, bond yields falling as risk off intensifies.

dc CB 19:43 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off



YowZa. The NYFed traders done lost control of the VIX!

maybe it's time to revisit Christine Lagarde's infamous Numerology Lesson...that targets 7-20-14 for the Great Reset. :))))
on YouTube in various tinhat interations.

GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT July 17, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

london red 19:30 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

sadly the plane "crash" now appears not to have been an accident.
it has always paid to buy usdjpy dips thursday/friday into following week. 55 week and 50 week ma at 101.20 and 101.06 respectively. a close below these tomorrow would suggest a lot lower, but this pair has always defied logic and every break lower has been false. not one to subscribe to this abe nonsense and wanting to make life difficult for myself, i have preferred to sell rallies in this pair, but unless we get concerted liquidation of jpy shorts, then it probably going to make sense to buy spikes lower. support lies at 100,76 and 100 and despite risk, yields and just about everything going against it, it will probably find itself trading 101.70 at some point next week.

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

10-yr now 2.46%

dc CB 19:16 GMT July 17, 2014
Truth or Scare?
Reply   
so it begins. "the Franz Ferdinand affair"
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

“I can say that Putin’s plane and the Malaysian Boeing intersected at the same point and the same echelon. That was close to Warsaw on 330-m echelon at the height of 10,100 meters. The presidential jet was there at 16:21 Moscow time and the Malaysian aircraft - 15:44 Moscow time,” a source told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

"The contours of the aircrafts are similar, linear dimensions are also very similar, as for the coloring, at a quite remote distance they are almost identical", the source added.

President Putin's plane might have been the target for Ukrainian missile - sources

GVI Forex john 19:14 GMT July 17, 2014
Israel
Reply   
Report a ground invasion of Gaza has commenced.

dc CB 18:59 GMT July 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News


*BULLARD SAYS FED BALANCE SHEET POSES INFLATIONARY RISK; QE 'FORCED SOME INVESTORS INTO MORE RISK TAKING'
*BULLARD SAYS HE WORRIES ABOUT A BOND MARKET BUBBLE BUT STOCKS RETURNED TO MORE TRADITIONAL VALUATION'
*BULLARD PREDICTS FED WILL END QE WITHOUT DISRUPTING MARKETS

GVI Forex john 18:57 GMT July 17, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




GVI Forex Blog 18:26 GMT July 17, 2014
Mixed U.S. Data. Housing Starts Plunge. Bund Yields Reach New Record Lows. Canada CPI Next
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- BOJ Minutes, CA- CPI, US- University of Michigan Survey

On Friday, Canadian CPI and the preliminary July University of Michigan Survey are due. Eurozone final June HICP (CPI) data were unrevised from their flash estimates and thus should have no impact on the current course of ECB policy. Thursday saw a number of key U.S. data releases. The June Housing Starts and Permits data were unexpectedly weak.

Mixed U.S. Data. Housing Starts Plunge. Bund Yields Reach New Record Lows. Canada CPI Next

GVI Forex john 18:19 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

10-yr
US 2.476% -6.4bp
EZ 1.150% -4.0bp
EURUSD steady @ 1.3523

Mtl JP 17:49 GMT July 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Fed's Bullard: Mismatch between Fed goals, tools may cause problems
-
market reaction approximately zero.
so Bullard dis-appoints on that score

Mtl JP 17:17 GMT July 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

yesterday Richard Fisher: First rate hike 'likely' early 2015
-
letssee ... at bottom of the hour non-voting hawk Bullard yaks (in in Owensboro, Kentucky of all places) about "monetary policy"; w/Q&A

there something about Bullard ; he has a record of ability to extract a few pips worth of a reaction from market.


SaaR KaL 17:13 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP
SHorts frm 0.7909
TGT .7856

adding
0.7927 0.7831
0.7932 0.7826
0.7937 0.7821
0.7942 0.7816

SaaR KaL 17:09 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Most likely cable
as well
Placed more longs
1.7181 1.7079
1.7188 1.7073
1.7194 1.7066
1.7201 1.7060
1.7207 1.7053
1.7214 1.7046
1.7221 1.7040

Mid Aug at most
trades near 1.7460

dc CB 17:07 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Oooops. another reason to keep the Market Up is delayed. A Big Payoff for Da Banks will have to wait until the summer's over.
To DA BEACH BOYS! to da beach
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Updated, 11:09 a.m. - One of the biggest questions on Wall Street has been whether the Alibaba Group would pull off its highly anticipated initial public offering by the first full week of August, just ahead of the unofficial late-summer market slowdown.

As it turns out, the Chinese e-commerce giant would prefer to wait.

The company is now planning to price its offering sometime after Labor Day, a person briefed on the matter said on Thursday.

Alibaba Said to Plan I.P.O. for September

Youtradefx 17:06 GMT July 17, 2014 Reply   

A Broker Review for Youtradefx has just been added.

SaaR KaL 17:01 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

IMO
GBPJPY is in rally mode
Most likely around 176 next week

dc CB 16:53 GMT July 17, 2014
Microsoft Announces Record 18,000 Layoffs
Reply   
The largest round of layoffs in MSFT history, surpassing the previous record of 5,800 set back in 2009.


Microsoft Corp. today announced a restructuring plan to simplify its operations and align the recently acquired Nokia Devices and Services business with the company's overall strategy.

These steps will result in the elimination of up to 18,000 positions over the next year. Of the total, about 12,500 professional and factory positions will be eliminated through synergies and strategic alignment of the Nokia Devices and Services business acquired by Microsoft on April 25.

dc CB 16:50 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly jobless claims extend slow improvement.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????

This week's initial jobless claims seasonal adjustment factor will be epic ZH

yet again the fate of the US economy is left to seasonal adjustments. Non-seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims surged over 47,000 this week to its worst in 6-months. But by the magic of PhD adjustment, this translated into 3,000 seasonally-adjusted drop from last week, beating expectations and printing near 'recovery' cycle lows. We can only imagine the adjustments needed to cope with Microsoft's layoffs. 2014 has seen the smallest percentage drop in initial claims since the crisis began.

Initial Claims raw data: non-seasonally-adjusted - not exactly the picture of health.

(Chart)

To be clear, real initial claims are soaring but the magical data released to the public is dropping...

"Seasonal Adjustment" Swings Initial Jobless Claims From 6-Month Highs To Cycle Lows

PAR 16:42 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Risk on . Buy the dip. US stocks will close at new record high. PPT already in action and on full alert.

Plane crash is a human tragedy.

SaaR KaL 16:30 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Mild north USDJPY

101.8584 101.3039
101.8871 101.2753
101.9157 101.2466
101.9444 101.2179
101.9731 101.1892

HK [email protected] 16:14 GMT July 17, 2014
It could be just an accident even malfunction of the plane.



Sorry about the footage, in the previous post: It is just rubbish.

HK [email protected] 16:05 GMT July 17, 2014
It could be just an accident even malfunction of the plane.
Reply   


Idiots run and bu gold!!!

FOOTAGE

GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

10-yr 2.478%

HK [email protected] 15:53 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off



The downing of the Malaysian plane is a human tragedy, but should not be more than a "no event" markets wise.

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Malaysian Airlines confirms it has lost contact with aircraft and Boeing says it is aware of media reports. 777 extended range.

SaaR KaL 15:49 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Closed All Gold Longs and Silver
want to short small gold
1,315.0044 1,278.8149
1,317.3646 1,276.4547
1,319.7248 1,274.0945
1,322.0850 1,271.7343

GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Table values are subject to change as news on the downed plane develops.

GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Risk-off trades everywhere after a Malaysian passenger airliner goes down in Ukraine en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam. Details are sketchy at this point in time.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on the day.  Yields on the European periphery are lower. The German 10-yr bund is 1.16%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.59%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  -6bp on a flight to safety trade..
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


London Misha 15:40 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Hearing - Ukraine government saying rebels shot it down, Donetsk rebels denying it!

Mtl JP 15:36 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

interesting correlation: plane crashes -> Gold goes uP and -> usd goes Down

SaaR KaL 15:33 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Long GBPJPY
174.7746 173.2925
174.8713 173.1958
174.9679 173.0991
175.0646 173.0025
175.1612 172.9058
175.2579 172.8091

London Misha 15:27 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Hearing Malaysian 777 down near Donetsk/Shakhtersk in Ukraine. Plane was allegedly losing height 50km before Russian airspace. No news if was actually shot down!

GVI Forex 15:26 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

JP- plane crash story

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

decent pop UP in Gold price atm

GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT July 17, 2014
Malaysian Airliner Down
Reply   
Reports a Malaysian Passenger Airliner (Boeing 777) was shot down near the Russian border with Ukraine. Flight was from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. DAX is down on the story.

We have no confirmation of ANY of the details of this story. This would be a definite risk-off event.

SaaR KaL 15:18 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Cable is a Bid Below 1.7100
tgt 1.7170

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

turning out that euro is still having trouble breaching the june's 1.3501 low

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:11 GMT July 17, 2014
Observations

Stocks driving all markets today

HK [email protected] 15:09 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. gold dealer launches first digital currency backed by bullion
Reply   


People will not like anymore anything digital coming out of the US, as things are being spied upon by the NSA.

Sorry; Unacceptable:(

Mtl JP 15:07 GMT July 17, 2014
GBP gap - will it wont it

what would be encouraging for gbpusd bears is priceaction staying under the 20 day gv chartpoint at 1.7091

London Misha 15:06 GMT July 17, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 2nd Black Crow & close below recent Uptrend on Daily Chart. Tests Jun lows & 1.3519 Fib.
GBPUSD - No follow through to Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart. Still possible topping action since late Jun!
EURGBP - Follow on to (almost) Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart with New 2014 low!
USDJPY - Bearish Doji as fails to effectively penetrate overhead MA resistance band on Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Bullish Hammer formation as bounces up off possible H+S Neckline on Daily Chart. 2nd close below recent broken Uptrend!
USDINR - Testing Fib support 60.06-60.09 but no follow through so far on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Bearish Matching on Daily Chart but no real follow on to recent Key Reversal Down. No close (so far) below nearby Fib support!
USDBRL - 2nd White Soldier on Daily Chart but still stuck below Fib resistance 2.2263 & support band sub 2.2100 & 2.2027-2.1978.
USDRUB - 5th White Soldier & 1st close over recent Downtrend on Daily Chart. Today punches up through minor Fib resistance & towards key 50% Fib (35.1394) and Medium MA!



Mtl JP 15:01 GMT July 17, 2014
GBP gap - will it wont it



answering my gbp gap question

GVI Forex Blog 14:51 GMT July 17, 2014 Reply   
July 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Minutes, CA- cPI. US- Univ of Michigan

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 18, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT July 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, July 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Minutes, CA- cPI. US- Univ of Michigan

  • Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: CA- cPI. US- Univ of Michigan, Lead Indicators, Commitment of Traders.


HK [email protected] 14:43 GMT July 17, 2014
As expected:::)))
Reply   


Russian UN ambassador and defense ministry deny claim that Russia shot down a Ukrainian warplane; ministry calls accusation 'absurd' - @ReutersWorld

HK [email protected] 14:42 GMT July 17, 2014
Association of European Business voices disagreement with US sanctions
Reply   


MOSCOW, July 17. /ITAR-TASS/. Association of European Businesses (AEB), a Moscow-based business group, has expressed strong disagreement with the new US sanctions against Russian companies and banks over the aggravating crisis in Ukraine.
A press release issued by the association says these companies and banks “are not involved in the Ukrainian crisis”. The AEB notes that these business entities “are reliable and long-term partners of many European companies.”

Mtl JP 14:33 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

and so now we wait for "boomerang effect" Vladimir promised

HK [email protected] 14:32 GMT July 17, 2014
Fast!!! Bring your barrels, fill oil for only 18$/bbl
Reply   


From few days ago

ISIS sells contraband crude oil for 18 dollars a barrel

(AGI/NOVA) Cairo, July 11 - The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which controls some of the oil-producing areas of Syria and Iraq, has resorted to selling contraband crude oil for between 10 and 18 dollars a barrel for fundraising purposes.
Several Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish sources told the daily Asharq Al-Awsat international newspaper that the group had broken into the local market and was exporting oil to Turkey in particular, where crude retails for more than 100 dollars a barrel. ISIS currently controls whole oil fields in Syria, and steals crude from pipelines in Iraq. (AGI) . .

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT July 17, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+107 vs. +100 exp vs. +93 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT July 17, 2014
Error Erased by Mistake
Reply   
Autotrade forex signals

GVI Forex 14:10 GMT July 17, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

From Press release--

The July Business Outlook Survey suggests continued broad-based expansion of the region's manufacturing sector. Firms reported continued increases in overall activity, new orders, shipments, and employment this month. The survey's future activity indexes remained at high readings, indicating that firms expect continued growth, including employment increases, over the next six months.

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

red- big move. We got to the LOD! 1.3620

NY JM 14:03 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

red, good heads up on Philly Fed. FX yawn reaction so far.

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT July 17, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

Philly Fed confirming Empire surge?

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 17, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
23.9 vs. +16.0 exp. vs. +17.8 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

New EU and US sanctions against Russia today on Ukraine are certainly a market factor.

GVI Forex john 13:52 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

German 10-yr 1.166% -1.4bp

hearing this is an all-time low yield, but I cannot confirm.

Mtl JP 13:44 GMT July 17, 2014
Global Markets News

Mtl JP 10:35 GMT July 16, 2014
Global Markets News: Reply
baltic dry index, at 782 down another 2+%

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

-
saga continues
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
down 3.45% yesterday at 755

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

red (and others) I cover EURUSD levels in my daily video posted on GVI Forex



Daily Trading Outlook Video Update

When will 1.35 be tested?

GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

In EURUSD it seems like the invisible hand has "allowed" a devaluation from 1.3600 to 1.3500. So we sit here for a couple of weeks before we fall to 1.3400??

london red 13:26 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

just get the feeling that just as in usdjpy, where players are lined up to buy dips mids 30's down, that there are plenty waiting for a blip higher to 40/50/75 to sell the euro. the empire state index earlier this week was our first look at Q3 and we get the Phily Fed for july shortly, which might surprise to the upside given the four year year seen from the empire. so its possible after the options cut and data release at top of the hour that we get another attempt lower. after all just a miserly 20 pip range so far.

GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

Post data 10=yr 2.498% -4bp.

GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly jobless claims extend slow improvement.




Click on chart for ten-year history



PRESS

RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)

New Homes Starts and Permits. Starts fall sharply.


london red 12:47 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)

safe haven aspect Chris, also look at aussie which is relatively isolated from the incident

London Chris 12:43 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)

red, why are sanctions a USD+? Doesn't it make countries like Russia and China wary if holding too many USD?

london red 12:40 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)

spin. fall concentrated in south, and starts barely cover demand so should rebound. dollar benefiting from latest sanctions (russia) as more reason for dollar firmness.
10 year yield drops again but while euro unable to clear 40/49 you cant rule out a third attempt at 20.
cable looks good at 75(64)/44 buy on dips.
strong inflows into canada help cad test 10730. if below 28 then risk to 10700/10

Mtl JP 12:38 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

maybe non-voting hawk Bullard will stir up players little later today with his yak scheduled for just after noon lunch hour

PAR 12:37 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

MSFT firing 18000 people . Good for stocks because the unemployment rate goes up and then Yellen will keep rates lower for longer .

Mtl JP 12:35 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Initial jobless not worthy of "A" category

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)

Housing Stats fall off a cliff!

Mtl JP 12:33 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

Res 3 1.3606
Res 2 1.3588
Res 1 1.3556
Pivot 1.3538
Quote: 1.3524
Sup 1 1.3506
Sup 2 1.3488
Sup 3 1.3456
-
While under Pivot bias to sell euro w/ 1.3506 and 1.3456 trgs.
sls against 1.3556 or 1.36 as per tolerance

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT July 17, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
302K vs. 310K exp. vs. 304K (r 305 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.507 vs. 2.575 exp. vs. 2.584 (r 2.596 ) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Starts: 893 vs. 1020 exp. vs. 1001(r 985)prev.
Permits: 963 vs. 1045 exp. vs. 1005 prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 12:28 GMT July 17, 2014
cad
Reply   
canadian flows also due in a minute

GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off

!0-yr 2.518% -2bp
2.50% in view again??

PAR 12:10 GMT July 17, 2014
Regulators sleeping at the wheel
Reply   


Regulatory Response to Espírito Santo Strife Under Scrutiny

Report by Investment Fund Owned by Unit of Espírito Santo International Already Contained Warnings in 2012




PAR 12:03 GMT July 17, 2014
Russia
Reply   
Russia Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.9% in June

london red 12:02 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off Posture Early in Europe. Active Data News Calendar Today

re sanctions and yield. yes the cynic would say killed two birds with one stone.

Mtl JP 11:57 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off Posture Early in Europe. Active Data News Calendar Today

NY session looking to open equities on the soft side
US 10-yr paying less interest again at approx 2.5%

Mtl JP 11:42 GMT July 17, 2014
No need to invade; Shoot across the border and deny:(

asfar Vlad continues to be patient, tolerant, soft, gentle and kind
-
Gold at $1304, brent at $107.50-ish

Mtl JP 11:27 GMT July 17, 2014
GBP gap - will it wont it
Reply   


close today ?

PAR 11:14 GMT July 17, 2014
No need to invade; Shoot across the border and deny:(

They could start using drones as some other countries do .

london red 11:04 GMT July 17, 2014
eurgbp

hearing some stops above last weeks low (which was 7915). if done could take us to 20. any uptick in euro could be used to sell into 33/35 stop above days high set for US data.

HK [email protected] 10:45 GMT July 17, 2014
No need to invade; Shoot across the border and deny:(
Reply   


Ukraine's government claims Russian warplane shoots down Ukrainian fighter over its territory - Interfax

HK [email protected] 10:27 GMT July 17, 2014
Dairy price drop not over: economist





Two channels and H&S, in the eye of the beholder:)

london red 10:12 GMT July 17, 2014
Dairy price drop not over: economist

thanks RF

PAR uk is too politically correct to confiscate assets of foreigners. and to busy confiscating assets of nationals which are fair game.

HK [email protected] 09:58 GMT July 17, 2014
Dairy price drop not over: economist



london red

Kiwi at the moment is a bit O.S.
The bearish news are already somehow discounted.
The fact that you can't see any significant price rebound for the last few days, shows about reluctancy(reluctance?) to buy this currency.
Daily Stoch. are still generous for additional price drop.

There are several price channels you may build around the price action, one even with a price target below 0.9600.

Probably the direction will next be determined, by coming USD news.

PAR 09:52 GMT July 17, 2014
eurgbp

Russian tycoons buying eurgbp . Afraid Russian assets in the UK could be confiscated.

Where to hide to avoid confiscation ?

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:36 GMT July 17, 2014
AceTrader Jul 17: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Jul 2014 09:02GMT

EUR/USD - ... Euro zone Jun inflation 0.1% m/m n 0.5% y/y, in line with expectations. Euro zone Jun inflation ex-food n energy 0.1% n 0.8%, same as forecasts.

Earlier Euro edges higher in European trading as buying interest at 1.3521/20 lifted the single currency. Intra-day broad based buying of euro vs usd, gbp & yen suggests the single wud gain a bit of respite n sideways consolidation abv y'day's 6-week low is expected.

On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3540-50 n more abv with some stops abv 1.3570/80. On the downside, bids are reported below 1.3520 with indicated option defense at 1.3500.

EBRD (The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) said notes EC decision concerning bank's lending in Russia n will now be consulting all shareholders on the implications.

Despite re-test y'day's 1.3521 low at European open, euro has edged higher on intra-day broad-based short-covering in the euro esp vs usd & gbp.

Syd 09:30 GMT July 17, 2014
China firm warns of interbank bond default
Reply   
Chinese construction firm Huatong Road & Bridge Group said on Wednesday it might fail to pay investors both interest and principal due on a one-year short-term bill issue that matures on July 23.

n a statement published on the website of the official Shanghai Clearing House after the marked closed, unlisted Huatong warned that payments of both interest and principal on the issue are uncertain because its chairman is currently "assisting an official investigation."

GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)

EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP unchanged. Core CPI unrevised. ECB focuses mainly on headline CPI.


GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT July 17, 2014
June 2014 Final EZ HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
mm: +0.10%vs. +0.10% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy:+0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.

HICP core
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:58 GMT July 17, 2014
Dairy price drop not over: economist

HF what are you looking for on kiwi ? ~8579/8620?

PAR 08:54 GMT July 17, 2014
German Bunds
Reply   
Apparently peripheral European banks ,instead of putting money at the ECB at a negative rate are buying "risk free " german paper including bunds .

london red 08:54 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

final euro inflation for june up shortly. in the interim germany ticked up while italy ticked down, so the finals should come in as prior 0.5/0.8. with everyone so downbeat on euro inflation an evens result is likely to have more upside bias than down but its appears the market is stuck in a rut looking for leads.

GVI Forex Blog 08:52 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off Posture Early in Europe. Active Data News Calendar Today
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- HICP (CPI), US- Weekly Jobless, Housing Starts & Permits, Philly Fed

Testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. Yesterday was double-sided, The Fed wanted to be optimistic about the economy, but Yellen also expressed concerns about Labor participation rates. Obviously one goal is always to bolster confidence in the economy. Recent U.S. data continue to point to a gradually expanding U.S. economy.

Risk Off Posture Early in Europe. Active Data News Calendar Today

HK [email protected] 08:52 GMT July 17, 2014
Dairy price drop not over: economist
Reply   


PRICES of dairy products may extend this year's 34 per cent slump, economists say, adding to pressure on Fonterra to lower its milk payout forecast and taking some of the steam out of New Zealand's economic expansion.
GDT Price Index dropped 8.9 per cent to the lowest level since December 2012 in the latest GlobalDairyTrade auction on Wednesday. It's the 10th decline in past 11 sales.
ASB rural economist Nathan Penny says his firm is reviewing its own forecasts for Fonterra's payouts to its farmers and the implications a reduced milk price would have for the economy.
"We haven't quite found that trough yet, but we do expect that it will emerge some time this year," Mr Penny said.
"We had expected dairy prices to stabilise a little sooner, or have clearer signs of stabilisation by now, so hence we're going to revise our forecast down for the milk price."
Elevated dairy prices have provided a major impetus to the nation's economic growth, but in June ANZ Bank New Zealand estimated weaker prices would reduce dairy incomes by $NZ3 billion ($A2.79 billion) this season.
Exports of milk powder, butter and cheese make up 31 per cent of New Zealand's total overseas shipments and surged 36 per cent last season.
In May, Canterbury-based dairy processor Synlait Milk cut its earnings forecast for a second time, citing a high kiwi dollar and volatile world dairy prices.

GVI Forex john 08:40 GMT July 17, 2014
Risk Off
Reply   

Markets are in a risk-off posture early Thursday as we head into yet another moderately active session for data releases . We are noting losses in European shares as our primary risk indicator. Bond yields are falling. EURUSD appears to be settling in above the 1.3500 line.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on the day.  Yields on the European periphery are lower. The German 10-yr bund is 1.18%, -1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.63%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.52%,  -2bp. The psychological 2.50% level is back in view.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


SaaR KaL 08:35 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD Shorts
3 days 1.0752 1.0563
5 days 1.0730 1.0584

Day Trade avg 1.0771 1.0712

SaaR KaL 08:30 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDNZD
Shorts
3 days 1.0763 1.0512
5 days 1.0735 1.0540

Day Trade avg 1.0785 1.0714

SaaR KaL 08:28 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Could include day trade levels as well

USDCHF

3 days 0.8968 0.8835
5 days 0.8953 0.8850

Day Trade avg 0.9012 0.8955

SaaR KaL 08:23 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable
Buy below if ok with Number of day
3 days 1.7351 1.7100
5 days 1.7323 1.7128

EURUSD
3 days 1.3709 1.3536
5 days 1.3689 1.3556

gold
3 days 1,369.2840 1,300.4416
5 days 1,361.5254 1,308.2002


GBPJPY
3 days 176.3378 173.6540
5 days 176.0353 173.9565

Sort of avg prices over that many day

We are OK Guys!!

london red 08:20 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

we are above 10 and 21 hour ma's and we have an hourly double bottom of sorts, but the hourly bollis are v narrow are we are currently at the top, which suggests fading a break higher. to move decidedly lower, we need to move back below the averages and confirm thru 20 to test 12 and 03.

HK [email protected] 08:13 GMT July 17, 2014
Russia



Probably the Russians are going for the Swiss frank, as Russian involvement up to invasion, is becoming more possible.

Spotforex NY 08:08 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

perfect commentary.

Be your own trader and find what works for you.

sd sf 07:47 GMT July 17, 2014
GBPAUD

I know what your saying as I see that on the chart as well .. I don't believe either gbp or aud is seeing exit flows though.

so more likely for next 24 hours it stays fairly steady to slightly higher.... so basically they will move up and down fairly close together.

HK [email protected] 07:40 GMT July 17, 2014
GBPAUD
Reply   


Regarding the H&S on the hourly, the target is about, 1.82.

1.8175, offers a strong support if reached.

sd sf 07:33 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

as far as the audnzd x goes - I'm expecting

overall range 1.0740/1.0840 -- so some profit taking in the 107.80-90 area now from day traders .. but I do believe the current trend has a little more in it over a couple of days.

as aud is bit of a safe haven - with no rate rises / no rate falls - and no drama via Europe... where NZD now has a less chance of a near term hike .. anyway not sure too many deal the X.

london red 07:32 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

2 year trendline at 10/20 depending on watch chart provider you use.
uk isnt perfect but has a level of growth that isnt seen elsewhere so dip buyers are going to be aplenty. without a strong bout of profit taking in eurgbp and in the absence of uk data, it might mean 17091 is as good as we can hope for on downside. 7044/64 would be a good level to go long for a test of 17203.

sd sf 07:24 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO

good point Par .. shorts are not liking the Russian Stock Market down and now the Russians saying they are going to get some more sanctions going themselves.

eurusd may not blast off but it is going to add support down at these levels.

for GBP you have to watch GBPAUD .. 18255-60 is solid support
so if aud stays bid - hard to sell gbpusd at the day lows.

not sure what will cause a breakout in the gbpusd tbh.

PAR 07:16 GMT July 17, 2014
EURO
Reply   
Russian money flowing into German bunds supporting Euro and Germany .

london red 07:12 GMT July 17, 2014
eurgbp
Reply   
bullish outside hour on eurgbp taking us to 7900 and now with some initial followthru above the figure. 10 period ma on 4 hour chart has been useful if not infallible in charting direction on this pairthis has caused the cable fall. euro belatedly squeezing higher now too. euro has res at 35 40 and 50 then 75. a rising eurgbp is going to make short work of the first too res levels so the cross needs particular attention if trading eurusd. 07 and 20 may offer some res for eurgbp.
cable has support at 10/15 fib and yest flash low on data, then 91 and 60/64. hourly trendline which kept asia so honest will now be res.

HK [email protected] 06:45 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?


Canmore Cyclops

You mentioned: "Trading is hard and I believe becoming harder"

This is very true,and for whatever reason it happens, my solution, is to reduce the number of trades to entry, when if convinced by my analysis, that a very clear opportunity is ahead.

Overt-trading in these markets may be a major factor to loss of funds.

PAR 06:42 GMT July 17, 2014
Russia
Reply   
Russian shares down more than 3% on new US and European sanctions .

Syd 06:41 GMT July 17, 2014
Source TradeTheNews.com US) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Reply   
US) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues that recent comments by Fed's Yellen represent a policy shift, should be US dollar supportive - Argues that if the Fed raises rates sooner than expected, the US dollar could have a rally in line with what was seen during the early 1980s or mid-1990s. - Cites the comments in which Yellen said 'if the labor market continues to improve more quickly than expected, then increases in the federal funds rate likely would occur sooner and be more rapid than currently envisioned.' - Notes the US dollar did not rally during the 2004-2007 tightening cycle, amid strong demand for EMU assets. **Note: In June, Yellen also said that if the economy was stronger than expected, fed funds rate increases could arrive sooner than expected and if worse, rate hikes would arrive later (data dependence). - In March, Yellen said that progress in the labor markets had been more rapid than expected. - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 06:40 GMT July 17, 2014 Reply   
Nikkei225 +0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.4%, Kospi +0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Sept S&P500 -0.2% at 1,971 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug gold +0.2% at $1,303/oz, Aug crude oi

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China State Council to stick with targeted stimulus; Brazil Central Bank on hold for 2nd time - Source TradeTheNews.com

SaaR KaL 06:20 GMT July 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Longing
EURJPY
139.964 137.321
140.137 137.149
140.309 136.977
140.481 136.804
140.654 136.632
140.826 136.460
140.998 136.287

Canmore Cyclops 06:06 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

I can't believe how fast this has happened but HK RF>>> I said A to Z, A stands for Amman , I know I should of said wfakhoury, but he is the A of A to Z. I love is new tag line"The only one in the world who confirms the next level" this is top Quality BS, Now when will Z show up????

HK [email protected] 05:53 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?



Canmore Cyclops

How dare you not including Amman in the wizards list.

He is so offended. Please apologize!!!!

Amman wfakhoury 05:46 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

The only way to become a better trader is to follow my signals
as I give you 2 levels to trade with , the first one is the confirmed level which should be reached , and the second one is the returned level which price should return to it in case
price moved in the opposite direction.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


Canmore Cyclops 05:37 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?
Reply   
I have been a lurker on this forum since I can't remember, (I am sure since the late 90"s,). I have seen Some awesome posting here in the early years, then a gradual decline in quality. I have seen everything from A to Z in posters initials. Both of these people (A and Z) have claimed to be market wizards, the best in the universe apparently.(in there own minds) Well they have both more or less disappeared except for the odd Euro call to 1.277777, someday it may happen... Anyway my point is for the Newbies NOBODY on here, or NOBODY anywhere is going to make you rich. What works for me does not mean it work for you, and what, works for you will not work for me. You have to find your own deal that works for you. There is a lot of useless BS on here, sorry, probably including this post. MY point is you have do your own thing. Trading is hard and I believe becoming harder ( just my 20 years in the racket.) Now having for the most part slammed everybody here, I do have respect for a couple posters here, and I have been wanting to say so for awhile now
sd sf
and
London Red

anyway just my 2 cents >> good luck all

Haifa ac 04:50 GMT July 17, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

That was meant to Gaza Ibiza-- old trader here.

Haifa ac 04:49 GMT July 17, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

How are you doing these days?

GVI Forex Blog 03:46 GMT July 17, 2014 Reply   
The Chinese GDP meeting the government expectations coupled with the optimism expressed

Morning Briefing : 17-Jul-2014 -0346 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:56 GMT July 17, 2014
AceTraderJul 17: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

17 Jul 2014 02:31GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback traded with a soft bias below Wednesday's high of 101.79 in Asian morning and retreated to 101.52 due partly to cross-buying in yen vs other currencies.
Eur/Jpy dropped to a fresh 5-month low at 137.38 whilst aud/jpy and gbp/jpy retreated from 95.29 to 95.04 and from 174.34 to 174.01 respectively.

Investors are reluctant to enter big position ahead of U.S. jobless claims and housing data due at 12:30GMT. Range trading is envisaged in Asia and Europe, therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go.
Market forecasts the U.S. jobless claims to be up by 6K to 310K fm previous reading of 304K and U.S. housing starts and building permits in June to be increased to 1.018 mln and 1.040 mln respectively.

At the moment, bids are noted at 101.50/45 and then
101.30-20 with stops emerging below 101.00, whilst offers from various accounts are placed at 101.75/80 and around 101.90 with stops located just above 102.00.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia leading indicator, NAB business confidence, EU inflation, U.S. housing starts, building permits and jobless claims.

sd sf 02:02 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

Simple :

* find the time of day that best suits your style of trading - and only trade that time zone.

for me 5 am Sydney to 10 am Sydney and 4pm Sydney to 10 pm Sydney - are my Bots most consistent hours.

* don't over trade and don't have a position just for the sake of having a position.

these type of positions have no plan and can lead to impulsive decisions taking money from your account.

* exercise and keep a balanced day the best you can.

* try to specialize in a couple of markets where you know all the factors that influence price - rather than being a master of none.

* lastly don't take positions off something you heard on TV / were told about or sent to you on an email -- the market is very efficient at discounting information quickly - develop your own decision making skills and rely on those.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 01:30 GMT July 17, 2014
Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

Read my latest article

Do You Want to Become a Better Trader?

dc CB 00:59 GMT July 17, 2014
Yellen

the last week in July should be fun filled. not only because August is VACATION Month.

But there's the FMOC right in the middle of Treas selling a batch of 2's, 5's and 7's.

Mtl JP 00:59 GMT July 17, 2014
highlighting the problem of $'s reserve status over-reaching into foreign policy

good for a chuckle BUT

did you notice that "Utilities in the U.S. are scrambling for coal, on pace to increase imports 26 percent this year, as railroad bottlenecks slow deliveries and electricity demand climbs with an improving economy" ?

dc CB 00:55 GMT July 17, 2014
Yellen

" it would be an escalation in bellicosity between BIS and Yellen. "
______________________________________________________

today:

Dallas Fisher on NPR's Marketplace...time for the Fed to pull back.

on CNBC:

Carl Ican: Very Nervous about Stox due to Fed's money printing.

Druckmiller: "I don't know what's in the Fed's forecasting record that allows them to make such a bet"

Bank of Am:
the current pace of jobs creation mirrors what forced the Fed’s hand in the 1994 rate hiking cycle, which led to lower stocks and wider credit spreads

dc CB 00:29 GMT July 17, 2014
highlighting the problem of $'s reserve status over-reaching into foreign policy

Oh the irony!
What was that about Energy Independence, O?
Damm Yankees!
______________________________________________

When New Hampshire’s largest utility needed to rebuild coal supplies after the past frigid winter, it turned to Russia rather than Appalachia in the U.S. Northeast or Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.

The Doric Victory, a bulk carrier the length of two football fields, transported the fuel almost 4,000 miles (6,436 kilometers) from Riga, Latvia, last month to Public Service of New Hampshire’s Schiller power plant in Portsmouth

Hungry U.S. Power Plant Turns to Russia for Coal Shipment

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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