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Forex Forum Archive for 07/19/2014

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Mtl JP 21:16 GMT July 19, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

kw in the COT report GBP is largest net mass of long
some are bound to take some profit from time to time

nw kw 21:00 GMT July 19, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

The frustrating thing for those with an interest in a strong pound sterling is that there is no apparent reason for the decline of GBP on Friday afternoon.

There is no major newsflow that can be attributed to the moves and we would suggest there are some 'grey forces' in the market pushing sterling lower.

GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT July 19, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

The latest COT report suggests to me that traders are starting to feel that GBP gains based on a potential BOE tightening is already fully priced it. Note that Net GBPUSD longs have been cut bank over the past few weeks. No doubt the weakening of the EURUSD has dragged the GBP weaker.

Technically the GBPUSD is not as over-extended as it has been recently. This makes the GBP less vulnerable to adverse data news as it has been recently

Any Thoughts?

Click on chart for COT Details

GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT July 19, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD.

The 2y yield is where the market has decided where the Official target rate will AVERAGE over the next two years. The divergence between the 2y and official reference rate shows that the major institutional players are betting that the BOE will start to "normalize" interest rates by the end of the year.

This is ahead of the U.S and of course will be data dependant. For forex traders, the GBPUSD has reacted as it SHOULD, and has risen. The current configuration GBP positive.

The divergence between these two key rates tells you all you need to know about GBPUSD fundamentals. Expect forex markets increasingly to be sensitive to U.K. economic data as the year wears on

nw kw 19:44 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

EUR to USD: the Release of Disappointing US Consumer Sentiment Data Led the Euro Eased off Seven-Month Lows against the Dollar

On Friday the euro against the U.S. dollar declined from seven month lows after disappointing consumer confidence data in the U.S., however, concerns about geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continues to weaken the sense of risk.
Euro trims losses against the dollar, but remains under pressure

nw kw 19:36 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

gold has a premium in june 20015

nw kw 19:16 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

In a Subprime Bubble for Used Cars, Borrowers Pay Sky-High Rates

And a growing number of lenders are using new technologies that can remotely disable the ignition of a car within minutes of the borrower missing a payment

Mtl JP 18:30 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

this quote might confirm imminent - i.e. down to months countdown - Yellen FED rate hike , when and "If the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated by the (Fed) then increases in the federal-funds rate target likely would occur sooner and be more rapid than currently envisioned." according to janet to the Senate Banking Committee
A potentially useful signalling market pulse meter is an overlay of a 5yr chart of Fed's holdings and US stock market

prague mark 14:06 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

eur/usd will GAP DOWN on Sunday... 1,3485-1,3465

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT July 19, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014

Geopolitical news on Thursday set the stage for the weekend, but barring new developments, the Malaysian Airliner incident and Israeli incursion into Gaza will quickly fade as market factors.

Fed Policy Remains Central

A major event last week was the semiannual Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen. We always take testimony by the Fed Chair with a grain of salt...

Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight: Outlook- July 20, 2014

Mtl JP 06:57 GMT July 19, 2014
Bloomberg Poll on Bubbles
Poll Shows Bubble Paranoia Setting In

World's financial elite fear bubbles in U.S. stocks and tenuous global economy, the latest Bloomberg Global Poll shows. But as three BRIC nations spiral, respondants see investment potential in markets of Modi's India.

Amman Amman 06:31 GMT July 19, 2014
About Day Trading
Day trading is perhaps the most well known active-trading style. It's often considered a pseudonym for active trading itself. Day trading, as its name implies, is the method of buying and selling securities within the same day. Positions are closed out within the same day they are taken, and no position is held overnight. Traditionally, day trading is done by professional traders, such as specialists or market makers. However, electronic trading has opened up this practice to novice traders.




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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