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Forex Forum Archive for 07/21/2014

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sd sf 23:00 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Stevens speaks today in like 4 hours or so I believe - plus a Q/A session after .. so that will most likely impact the AUD on the day.

sd sf 22:58 GMT July 21, 2014
EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed

if the broker is regulated - then with an attorney you will get your money - so you would have to factor that cost in .. if it is non regulated then your wasting your time... your not getting paid.

GVIForex Jay Meisler 22:31 GMT July 21, 2014
EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed
Reply   
Beware of broker bonuses - read my latest article.

EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed

GVI Forex john 21:31 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



July 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CBI Output Trends.
  • North America: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales, Richmond Fed, API.


GVI Forex john 20:18 GMT July 21, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
TUESDAY
US CPI & core CPI
US Existing Home

WEDNESDAY
AU CPI
GB BOE Minutes
CA Retail Sales & Sales x-autos
NZ RBNZ Cash Rate

THURSDAY

JP CPI & Core CPI
CN HSBC flash PMI
FR MFG &SVC PMI flash
DE MFG &SVC PMI flash
EZ  MFG &SVC PMI flash
GB Ret Sls & x-fuel 
US Initial Claims
US Mfg PMI flash

FRIDAY

DE IFO Climate  
GB GDP
US Dur Goods & ex-trans

GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT July 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

nw kw 19:40 GMT July 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

usa oil refiners at 9y high out put capacity tight supply

GVI Forex john 19:18 GMT July 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


GVI Forex Blog 18:36 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk-Off Posture From Late Last Week Continued Monday. Active Calendar Starts Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- CPI, Existing Home Sales

Markets were worried at one point about what Obama was going to announce to "punish" Russia for Ukraine, but the President did not threaten any actions. Traders were taking a low profile into the current unstable geopolitical environment. The economic calendar for the week starts on Tuesday. That session will see key U.S. CPI data and Existing Homes Sales

Risk-Off Posture From Late Last Week Continued Monday. Active Calendar Starts Tuesday

GVI Forex john 18:06 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Mid-afternoon in NYC 10-yr yield 2,469%. Yields are above their pre-Obama lows (2,45%).

PAR 17:31 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk on

If second quarter US growth turns out be negative we are alraedy in recession .

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk on

not even Recession ?

PAR 17:24 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk on

Looks like US stocks will be closing in the green . Nothing can kill this bull . Not Yellen , not Obama , not Putin .

Mtl JP 15:35 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar

Obama:
Russia must change its Ukraine policy
Jet crash site is being tampered with
Russia must safeguard jet crash site
demands access to downed jet crash site
-
Russia Says Has Photos Of Ukraine Deploying BUK Missiles In East, Radar Proof Of Warplanes In MH17 Vicinity - zh
--
10-yr pulling back some now, usdyen uP some

dc CB 15:33 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk on

POMOs this week
in billions
today(done) $1.067

Wed $2.50 - $3.25
Thurs $2.00 - $2.50

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

At the European close Monday, markets are increasingly in a risk-off posture as both the Israeli and Ukraine hot spots continue to fester..Traders feel that U,S, and Eurozone yields are at temporarily depressed levels and are cautious about a possible snap back.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower after having fallen sharply last week . Yields on the European periphery are steady to lower as well..The German 10-yr bund is 1.14%, -1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.57%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.45%,  -3bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. shares are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


PAR 15:30 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk on
Reply   
Obama speech rather moderate , so Us stocks will rally in the afternoon and especially the last hour with some FED directed PPT actions . Yellen put at DOW 17000.

GVI Forex john 15:27 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Some relief in markets that Obama did not announce or threaten additional sanctions vs. Russia

GVI Forex Blog 15:06 GMT July 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
With little in the way of major earnings or economic data to distract markets, the situation in eastern Ukraine remains the major focus this morning

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Geopolitical Tensions Dominate Markets

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



what expectation do u have for the 10-yr once 0 flaps his gums ?

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

The life of a bond trader must be a nightmare these days!

GVI Forex john 14:44 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

equities leading the run into bonds now 2.451%

SaaR KaL 14:39 GMT July 21, 2014
Day's Trades

Good sells
EURGBP
0.7963 0.7846

AUDCHF
0.8421 0.8286

AUDCAD
1.0087 0.9847


good Buys
GBPAUD
1.8545 1.8216

EURAUD
1.4651 1.4414

NDX
3,979.4334 3,888.7284

GVI Forex john 14:36 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

now 2.458%

Mtl JP 14:31 GMT July 21, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

john is any price-action reflecting anything other than BS ?
all is just paper value... that can go 'poof'; basically speculation based on... whether the facade will continue.. or that it will break?
essentially prices are all BS now for most of the financial instruments. when you take a punt, it's mainly based on what you think the policy makers will do or will push for.

which makes odds of direction go out the window coz I'm not well-connected enough.

It is why those billionairs are smug, coz they're likely usually given heads up. which raises the Q of who is likely to get the short end of the stick? and ... given the so-called geo-political risks, what odds are there of lot of 'trades' being invalidated ?

GVI Forex Blog 14:30 GMT July 21, 2014 Reply   
July 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales Far East: No Major Data. Europe: GB- CBI Output Trends. North America: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales, Richmond Fed, aPI.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 22, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:28 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar

mild flight to safety ahead of Obama.

London Misha 14:17 GMT July 21, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bullish Doji on Daily Chart. Despite Daily ranges, last three Daily closes have been within 15 tics of each other!
GBPUSD - Tests 2009 (1.7042) high support & still no follow through to Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart. Still possible Topping Action since late Jun!
EURGBP - Doji - possibly bearish - on Daily Chart after Pipe Bottom formation. Overhead resistance from Centre Tine of recent AP.
USDJPY - Bullish Harami as tests but fails 2nd close below 101.17 Fib support on Daily Chart. MA resistance overhead still 101.83-102.10.
AUDUSD - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart but fails to breach recent Downtrend!
USDINR - Possible Island Spike Up but to day market fills Gap down to Upper Tine of recent SP on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Another Bearish Matching on Daily Chart but 1st close below Lower Tine of Sep13-May14 AP. Nears MA combined support 10.5329-10.5742.
USDBRL - Pipe Top formation on Daily Chart & closes below key resistance levels but within support band 2.2075-2.2266!
USDRUB - 2nd close over Medium MA & recent 50% Fib (35.1394) on Daily Chart. 1st Golden Cross of Short MA up through Long MA!



GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.469%

GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CBI Output Trends.
  • North America: US- CPI, Existing Homes Sales, Richmond Fed, aPI.


GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT July 21, 2014
Calendar
Reply   
Obama to speak on Ukraine at the top if the hour.

Paris ib 14:14 GMT July 21, 2014
Escalation on the horizons

And the people will win.

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT July 21, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

"..with that euro short do NOT appear to be building"

Suggests to me that a number of traders have missed the move?? This time they aren't trusting the price action.

Mtl JP 14:11 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red - thks for the odds.
matches up w/ Sup 1 1.7043 and 1 StdD 1.7039 on gv chartpoints

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:09 GMT July 21, 2014
EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed.
Reply   
Beware of broker bonuses - read my latest article

EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch. 400% Broker Bonus Offer Exposed.

Mtl JP 14:08 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

this week's expected CPI number releases (court.: g-v econ calendar)
US CPI y/y 2.10% 2.10% (i.e steady)
AU CPI y/y 3.00% 2.90% (i.e. UP)
JP CPI y/y n/a 3.70% (a mystery / surprise)
-
Q: which has best odds of overshooting expectations ?

london red 14:01 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

cable support at 40 unlikely to break on a closing basis ahead of minutes on wednesday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:47 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red, I suggest putting your last post on traders' blotters. Nice blueprint for the future.

Mtl JP 13:41 GMT July 21, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

GVI Forex john 23:09 GMT July 18, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report: Reply
Short ~63K contracts
-63,000*EUR 125,000= EUR 7.9bln short
*1.35= USD 10.7bln equivalent short EUR.

--
with that euro short do NOT appear to be building

maybe we will see a bit of a short cull first and then (some new catalyst to help) eurdlr go lower

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

exactly what escalation ?
VIX is at 12 . maybe get excited if / when it rockets over 13.5

london red 13:15 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

think markets expects a tame cpi and ukraine constantly hampering sell-off so no reason to force market lower. think it takes a lot inclusive of poor US data to go under 2.4% though. i would be looking to set up shorts thre/ahead of there.
and euro is surviving because of the dovish play on US rates. the moment rates start rising the euro will move a peg lower (1.30-1.35) unless european data improves at the same time. it will still rally when risk is on, but there will be an adjustment for higher US rates when the time comes.

GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP- Sorry that what I meant to write . I had a "brain freeze".

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

neither should the 10-yr be paying sub 2.5%

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

waiting for some sort of guidance from the U.S.
10-yr 2.478%
futures:
DJIA -38
S&P -5
10-yr bund 1.154% just above record lows.

Psychologically 2.50% is the tipping point in the U.S. 10-yr. If the U.S. economy indeed is improving, U.S. 10-yr should not be down here!

SaaR KaL 11:50 GMT July 21, 2014
Escalation on the horizons

WW 3
will be between People Vs. Politicans

SaaR KaL 11:47 GMT July 21, 2014
Sell usdchf

Tom
Same Here

SaaR KaL 11:46 GMT July 21, 2014
Escalation on the horizons



In the UK Now
British, Arabs, Christians ,Muslims atheists (Me) and Jews
People are really Angry

GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT July 21, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EURUSD Spot to 20-day average mostly negative, except vs. AUD. EUR changes on the day are mixed.



GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:35 GMT July 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.35 stays on the radar asd long as sub-1.35 trades.

All covered in my daily video update. EMAIL to get a copy

GVI Forex Blog 10:02 GMT July 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX technical levels remained in focus following last Fridays; tests in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs but no sustained breakout just yet.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Ukraine, Gaza situations stay in focus; EU Leaders threaten harsher sanctions against Russia

Auckland 09:30 GMT July 21, 2014
Gold & Silver Analyses
Reply   
21/July/2014 Gold & Silver Analyses

gold
Ukraine and Russia's geopolitical situation is expected to affect the precious metals market again; the gold market strong wait-and-see mood is thicker.
On Monday (July 21, according to data from the Gold ETFs as of last Friday, July 18, Gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust, Gold holdings of about 805.14 tons or 25885929.61 ounces, 1.80 tons of increase from the previous session. Technical MMI GROUP trust team think the completely downward trend of whole gold, between 1292 and 1345.20 currently do wide horizontal finishing. Effective on 1324.80 May test 1345.20. And effective under 1340.50 a first line may be even lower test 1292.
Upward resistance: 1324.80, 1339.50, 1345.20,
Downward support: 1304.50, 1304.50, 1268.40


Silver:
Silver Trust on Monday (July 21), according to data released on Friday, Silver Trust (July 18) Silver holdings of 10038.52 tons, compared with the previous unchanged; the silver holds a total value of $6.757 billion. Silver has a weak performance; the current situation is still tight trading range, effective on 22.20, could test a first line of 25.10,
Upward resistance: 22.20, 25.10,
Downward support: 20.50, 20, 18.70

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

PAR 09:23 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk-Off Posture From Late Last Week Continues Monday. Active Calendar Starts Tuesday

Risk off moderated as investors neither focus on bad US macro data , nor on geopolitical risks but are cheered by better than ( lowered) expected corporate results .

GVI Forex Blog 09:12 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk-Off Posture From Late Last Week Continues Monday. Active Calendar Starts Tuesday
Reply   
Today, no major data are set for release Tuesday will see key U.S. CPI data and existing Homes Sales Odds are traders are taking a low profile into the current unstable geo-political environment.

Risk-Off Posture From Late Last Week Continues Monday. Active Calendar Starts Tuesday

Manila Tom 09:00 GMT July 21, 2014
Sell usdchf
Reply   
I am selling usdchf above 0.9

HK [email protected] 08:58 GMT July 21, 2014
Escalation on the horizons
Reply   


Oil and gold, making some start to the direction.

The issue; Muslim countries may take any kind of steps in response to the situation in Gaza.

GVI Forex john 08:55 GMT July 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Monday is off to its usual cautious start as traders are tentatively attempting to get a feel for the lay of the land. Markets remain in a mild risk-off posture as they wait to see how the geopolitical developments are unfolding.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed to lower after having fallen sharply last week . Yields on the European periphery are steady to lower as well..The German 10-yr bund is 1.15%, -1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.58%  -1bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  0bp.
  • Equities closed mostly lower in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. share futures are lower early.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Porto Cubriclas 08:32 GMT July 21, 2014
Lahore FM
Reply   
Hi FM my friend.
I hope everything ok with you.

Amman Amman 07:38 GMT July 21, 2014
Investors averse on geopolitical turmoil
Reply   
U.S. stocks rose, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell the most since April, as investors weighed earnings and geopolitical tensions. Treasuries dropped with gold, while European equities slid on concern the conflict in Ukraine is deepening.

Akram Majed

SaaR KaL 06:09 GMT July 21, 2014
Day's Trades

all Buys this week
Gold Silver..+

XPDUSD
910.5014 868.1113

XPTUSD
1,553.8511 1,488.5984

Oil is a sell IMO
102.6085 97.5779

SaaR KaL 04:28 GMT July 21, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
What it boils down to;
AUDUSD is crashing
Cable is Flying
EURUSD ranging 1.3660 to 1.3480 for 2-3 weeks

GBPAUD will hit the sky this week

AUDNZD is in big trouble south for weeks

AUDJPY crashes real soon
AUDCHF
AUDJPY as well

GVI Forex Blog 03:54 GMT July 21, 2014 Reply   
The geopolitical risk has subsided a lot as it has been largely clear that the MH17 incident was

Morning Briefing : 21-Jul-2014 -0352 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:44 GMT July 21, 2014
AceTrader Jul 21: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

21 Jul 2014 02:17GMT

USD/JPY - ... The greenback traded with a soft bias in Asia this morning n moved lower from Australian high of 101.37 to 101.27 in part due to cross-buying in yen vs other CCYs as risk aversion remained after the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine last Fri.

Today, expect range trading with mild downside bias until European open as market is thin in Asia due to national holiday in Japan. There are no major economic data release from U.S. and therefore, fund flow should be the main drive for this pair's direction.

At the moment, offers are noted at 101.35/40 and then 101.55/60 with stops emerging above last Wed's high of 101.79, whilst bids are noted at 101.15/10 and around 101.00 with mixture of bids and stops located at 101.80 and just below 2014 bottom at 100.76 (Feb).

Data to be released this week:

Japan market holiday, UK house prices, Germany PPI, Italy industrial sales and industrial orders on Monday.

China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales on Tuesday.

Australia CPI, France business climate, UK BoE minutes, BBA mortgage approvals, Italy trade balance, Canada retail sales and EU consumer confidence on Wednesday.

NZ RBNZ rate decision, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan exports, imports, manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy retail sales, UK retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI and new home sales on Thursday.

Japan National CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo current conditions, expectations, business climate, Italy unemployment, UK GDP and U.S. durable goods on Friday.

dc CB 00:59 GMT July 21, 2014
Fed Policy Still in the Spotlight-- 20-July 2014



for this week if the script is followed as is has been month after month.

Treasury yields should rise - as the PD's sell off inventory looking forward to next weeks' auction of 2, 5, 7s

Mtl JP 00:58 GMT July 21, 2014
Gaza may become an issue!

rather than be in a clueless position asking "what-happened?" watch
crude (Brent 107, wti 101.80)
Gold (1309)
10-yr price (125.25-ish)
maybe usdyen - they are sensitive to "risk" (101.30-ish)

really not much else is needed

HK [email protected] 00:57 GMT July 21, 2014
Gaza may become an issue!



One can judge the severity of the situation, from the rush of Mr. Kerry to the M.E. in an attempt to broker cease fire, or stop the war(doubtful).

That B4 things will run out of hands, and also to appease Arab friendly states.
Just from chart gazing, gold has the potential, to easily jet above 1400.

HK [email protected] 00:44 GMT July 21, 2014
Gaza may become an issue!


GVIForex Jay

It is very clear that such a geopolitical escalation, carries a risk, which may affect Mkts. No need to chew it until the end.
Can't see yet which other element exactly may join this conflict(it may happen also in other parts of the world), but once it happens, there may be an impact on the Mkts.

 




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