Syd 23:24 GMT July 22, 2014
AUSSIE COULD SUFFER A LOT MORE IF CHINESE DEBT MATTERS
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China�s GDP growth will decelerate faster than is now expected. And though this may be a healthy change for China as malinvestment is reduced, it will likely not be a healthy change for its raw-material satellite country, aka Australia.
link
nw kw 21:16 GMT July 22, 2014
Global Markets News
beaten expectations na they had lowered expectations
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)
Medium
1150M 1373M
milk ex is badly soft/H Sing will drop from monthly tops poss aud
Mtl JP 21:11 GMT July 22, 2014
Global Markets News
note that about 150 major firms are yet reporting this week
so far those that have reported have beaten expectations
Mtl JP 20:40 GMT July 22, 2014
Global Markets News
according to wsj:
Deutsche Bank's U.S. Operation Has Deep Reporting Flaws, Exam Finds
A regulatory exam found Deutsche Bank's U.S. operations suffer from serious problems, including shoddy financial reporting, inadequate auditing and oversight and weak technology systems, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. 36 min ago
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does it matter, should it (not), to who & why (not) ?
sofar market zzzzs
sd sf 20:28 GMT July 22, 2014
morning
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basically my book is short eurusd and gbpusd - from breakout model selling .. eurusd stops @1.3505 and 1.7095
in the middle of that the short term bots are offering 72-75 eur and 70 72 74 gbp
interestingly bot favors eurcad 1.4420 and gbpcad 1.8280 .. which is 40 or so points lower than where we are now... so it does probably get there as it has been pretty good with these.
audnzd this is a real interesting one -- broke projected top @1.0840 .. now targets 1.0890 with Aust CPI and RBNZ Interest Rate Decision ... this could reach 1.0950 if RBNZ does ntg.
Summary - bots trading for continuation move - whether that happens or not we shall find out.
GT>
Mtl JP 18:40 GMT July 22, 2014
European Debt
PAR 17:32 // what do you think...
..."The notional amount of outstanding OTC derivatives contracts, which determines contractual payments and is an indicator of activity in OTC derivatives markets, totalled $710 trillion at end-December 2013. This compares with $693 trillion at end-June 2013 and $633 trillion at end-2012. ... Adjusted for exchange rate movements, notional amounts at end-2013 were about 1% higher than at end-June 2013 and 13% higher than at end-2012.".... - BIS Quarterly Review June 2014 on p.5
global aggregate GDP is what ... $60-65 trillion ? (according to the liars)
wanna raise rates ... and raise some h3ll ?
PAR 18:33 GMT July 22, 2014
European Debt
S&P warns Europe debt market near pre-crash levels
PAR 17:32 GMT July 22, 2014
European Debt
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Despite record low interest rates peripheral european sovereign debt keeps exploding .
Greece +13% y/y to 174 % of GDP
Italy +5,8 % y/y to 135,6% of GDP
Portugal +5,4 % y/y to 132,9 % of GDP
The whole austerity experiment is again spinning out of control despite Draghi's � trillions money printing .
Who is finally going to pay the bill or is Europe becoming another Weimar republic .
GVI Forex john 16:49 GMT July 22, 2014
U.S. FAA
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FAA, theU.S. airline regulatory Authority, just prohibited U.S. airlines from flying to Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) for at least the the next 24 hours. Concern about rocket attacks.
So much for the Risk on trade? Markets have to worry if there is something new afoot?
GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT July 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
10-yr 2.487%.
2.50% back in sight as risk-off trade fades. It might be that short EURUSD has become the "risk-on" trade?
GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
PK- Its not so obvious on the dailies, but recently we stabilized (died) first for a couple of weeks above 1.3600 then we had the same price behavior above 1.3500. Yesterday we traded a 15 pip range above 1.3500. I was just extrapolating and suggesting we could do the same thing above 1.3400 before going for 1.3300 next.
This has a very suspicious feel to me like someone is trying to manage an orderly decline in EURUSD. We know the ECB wants the EURUSD lower, so they would be my number one suspect.
GOT PK 15:50 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
john - "1.3420 or so....". am I missing something? can�t see this as support level. care to elaborate? cheers.
GVI Forex Blog 15:46 GMT July 22, 2014
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July 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Crude
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 23, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT July 22, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
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July 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 23.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- CPI, GB- BOE Minutes, EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA-
Retail Sales US- Weekly Crude
- Far East: AU- CPI.
- Europe: GB- BOE Minutes, CBI Distributive Trades, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
- North America: CA- Retail Sales US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude.
GVI Forex john 15:37 GMT July 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
On Tuesday, the markets are backing away from a defensive risk-off to
a risk-on status as worries about Ukraine and Israel fade.
Traders do not see strong President Obama action. Firm action would be
a surprise..
U.S, and Eurozone yields and shares are rising A weak EURUSD is
risk-on..
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are rising after having fallen sharply last week .Yields
on the European
periphery are up.The German 10-yr bund is
1.18%, +4bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.59% +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.49%, +1bp.
- Equities closed higher in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are closing up. U.S. shares
are up.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Now that we are through EURUSD 1.3500, do we now work our way down to 1.3400 and then stabilize at 1.3420 or so for a week or so before we trade down into the 1.3300's?
EUR is fundamentally weak and the ECB does not mind seeing it fall. This is an unsatisfying move because the USD is seriously flawed. Note I said "flawed", not weak.
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT July 22, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
Note in chart how pending homes sales data (we lag it by one month) predicts Existing homes sales in the following month.
Anecdotally, we have been hearing that housing has been slowing. We would like to see that in the DATA first. Housing starts have been slowing, but Existing Homes sales is by far the most important housing number.
Amman wfakhoury 14:18 GMT July 22, 2014
buy euro
London Chris 10:32 GMT 07/22/2014
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?
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___________________________________
13497 and 13458 were both confirmed today , price will start go up unless 1 hr bar closed below 13458.
gap still active , it takes more time than confirmed level.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:35 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
As I posted on GVI Forex
Mission accomplished with stops taken out below 1.3475. Pause above 1.3450 saw offsets take over and push USD down elsewhere. Res 1.3490-00.
GVI Forex
london red 12:57 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
john, talk all morning was of higher cpi. look at the big swissie order this morning from 80. market talked itself into a higher number. question now is whether disappointment is contained or we run dollar downside stops. not sure there is enough to flip the dollar today, but its certainly going find make new highs difficult now.
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT July 22, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
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Not sure why the USDJPY falls on CPI data? Perhaps its coincidental or maybe view is that Pressure on Fed to tighten eases slightly.
Wide divergence post-data between S&P futures and USDJPY.
london red 12:52 GMT July 22, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Consumer Price Index
data roughly inline to soft, but clearly market anticipated better. dollar weakness best seen in currencies in jpy aud and nzd. eur and gbp to follow. eur should be capped by 13520 and cable 171.
London Misha 12:24 GMT July 22, 2014
Observations
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EURUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart but today breaches key 50% Fib 1.3489 & tests 2014 lows. All MAs now turned down!
GBPUSD - 4th Black Crow on Daily Chart, continues testing 2009 high at 1.7042 and its topping action (possible Double Top?) since late Jun!
EURGBP - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart but a lower high with continued overhead resistance from the Centre Tine of the recent AP.
USDJPY - Bullish Dragonfly Doji on Daily Chart as continues bounce up off 101.17 Fib support. MA resistance overhead still 101.82-102.09.
AUDUSD - No follow through on Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart as fails again to breach Downtrend. However, breaches it today & also possible KR today!
USDINR - Island Spike Up has its Gap filled and now rests upon Upper Tine of Apr-Jun SP on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 2nd Black Crow as follows on Bearish Matching on Daily Chart & 2nd close below Lower Tine of Sep13-May14 AP> Nears MA combo support 10.5795-10.5370.
USDBRL - 2nd Black Crow as follows on to Pipe Top formation on Daily Chart. Still within support band 2.2075-2.2265!
USDRUB - Doji - possibly bullish but also possible small Bearish Harami on Daily Chart. Today drops (so far) through key 50% Fib at 35.1394 & Medium MA at 35.0958.
london red 12:08 GMT July 22, 2014
EUR Heat Map
whiff in the air of cpi beat, certainly in line with morning dollar move. an flation beat particularly on the core side should take us through stops under 70 on the euro. barrier at 50 is likely to be well defended and hold at least til the options cut this afternoon. an inflation miss is likely to have us retrace slightly but plenty of sellers now lined up ahead of 135 and to 13520.
cable may suffer too on an inflation beat, although dip buying should turn out profitable ahead of the minutes tomorrow morning. support at 37 likely to give on a cpi beat, but further support at 25, 15 and if those are taken ultimately 16993 should hold into tomorrow. on the upside there is the 75 fib and further es at 171.
usdjpy. as night follows night, pair rebounded from lows and now not far from res at 80/90. further at 102/102.20, but unlikely to be breached unless cpi is a real upside surprise.
also today are real earnings, out at the same time as cpi. any kind of increase is likely to be jumped on by rate hawks (exp. 0.0%).
GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT July 22, 2014
EUR Heat Map
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EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly lower. Spot to 20-day averages are mostly negative, except vs. AUD.
London Chris 10:32 GMT July 22, 2014
buy euro
Amman is your eurusd buy signal still valid or have you seen the light of the downside?
nw kw 10:27 GMT July 22, 2014
buy euro
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
Medium
1.38B 2.78B 2.85B
Hong Kong AceTrader 10:05 GMT July 22, 2014
AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
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[B]
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
22 Jul 2014[/B] 08:58 GMT
[B]EUR/USD [/B]- .... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.3530 in Asian morning n weakened ahead of European open. Intra-day decline accelerated in early European morning n price fell below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 to 1.3480 on broad-based selling of euro. Offers are now seen at 1.3500/05 and more above at 1.3515/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3460/70, suggesting selling on recovery is favored.
Earlier in the Asian morning opening today saw the single currency moved sideways below yesterday's high of 1.3549 but with a soft bias due to ongoing market sentiments that the ECB has room to loosen policy while the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down stimulus tools this year n hike interest rates in 2015.
There are zero economic data to be released fm EZ today, therefore, euro should closely followed the move with other usd/majors.
Range trading below y'day's high of 1.3549 is likely to continue ahead of European open as market eyes on events unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza whilst stops located just below last Fri's 5-month low at 1.3491 are in focus.
At the moment, offers from various accounts was noted at 1.3535/40 n then 1.3545/50 with mixture of offers n stops located above 1.3570.
On the downside, bids were placed at 1.3515/10 and around 1.3500.
....................
....................
PAR 09:49 GMT July 22, 2014
Business as usual
Italian gross government debt hit 135.6% of GDP in March, up 5.8% over a year earlier.
Portugal gross sovereign debt at 132.9% GDP in Match, up 5.4% over a year earlier. Unsustainable.
GVI Forex john 09:25 GMT July 22, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
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Early Tuesday, the markets are backing a way modestly from risk-off to
a more neutral posture. It would be a stretch to call it "Risk-on".
U,S, and Eurozone yields remain at
depressed levels and a snap back to previous levels is always a
possibility. EURUSD has broken 1.3500.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mostly steady after having fallen sharply last week .
Yields
on the European
periphery are mixed.The German 10-yr bund is
1.16%, +2bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.59% +2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is priced in by
yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%, 0bp.
- Equities closed higher in the
Far East. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures
are up.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
PAR 09:13 GMT July 22, 2014
Business as usual
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Greek public debt rockets 13.5% Y/Y in Q1 to 174.1% of GDP, Slovenia's public debt stock up 23.9% to 78.7% of GDP
Mtl JP 08:28 GMT July 22, 2014
buy euro
euro 3 StdD off the 20dma at 1.3461
SaaR KaL 08:24 GMT July 22, 2014
Day's Trades
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EURUSD Seems Like a buy here for 50 pips at least
london red 08:18 GMT July 22, 2014
euro
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stops below last weeks low positioned under 90 look at risk but 75/80 should hold into this afternoons cpi, for which expectations arent high, so reason to chase euro lower arent that great.
cable may get dragged a little lower, worth using dips to buy into minutes tomorrow morning, particularly after cpi risk is out of way. minutes may be otherwise, but market expects hawkish. reality may be different but that move happens after the relase, until then market will buy cable dips.
PAR 08:09 GMT July 22, 2014
Russia
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Russian stock market moving higher as tensions over Ukraine decline .
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:57 GMT July 22, 2014
AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views NZD/USD AUD/USD
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jul 2014 05:00GMT
NZD/USD - 0.8678... RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer said, quote:
'Reserve Bank of New Zealand to review prudential rules for banks, non-bank lenders;
review to "thin stock" of current regulation, won't be 'a severe pruning'; banking review to take 12 months, may remove redundant rules, simplify framework;
review will not include rules covering insurance sector; key planks such as capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance not in review.'
AUD/USD - Earlier Statements from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens continues to speak and said "markets remarkably sanguine on geopolitics up to now.
'low rates are doing the things they usually do; doing all that could reasonably be expected at moment, content for now; if policy could reasonably do more, would consider it.'
He began his statement, quote:
"hard to say how successful qe has been globally";
"subdued 'animal spirits' likely one reason for slow economic recoveries";
" is sure spirits will improve at some point, G20 growth agenda could help".
Stevens makes no comments on domestic monetary policy & A$ in his speech. Aud briefly bounced to intra-day high of 0.9395 as st specs sold aussie ahead of Stevens' speech n quickly covered their shorts after his speech did not mention the A$.
Syd 07:47 GMT July 22, 2014
Citi Bets On USD For Geopolitical Protection -- Market Talk
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The dollar gained last week on geo-political risk and this is likely to continue, says Citi. "This is a tricky period for asset markets," it says. Positioning still reflects a desire to buy riskier assets but that focused on emerging markets, equities and Asia rather than peripheral Europe, Citi says. The U.S. market's focus on Tuesday will be on CPI, where a high print would be more damaging to asset markets than a low print would be a positive, the bank says. The euro should continue to grind lower and all tough talk against Russia is negative for the European currency, it says. ([email protected])
Auckland 07:31 GMT July 22, 2014
22/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis
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22/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis
MMI GROUP
Gold
Thin gold due to the economic data and geopolitical crisis news such as good or bad ends meet there are not big changes on the pattern.
Gold ETFs data shows that up to July 21, main gold ETF holdings of gold holdings was about 1312.24 tons, 1.81 tons less than the previous session.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team think the shrinkage triangular pattern in gold, narrow oscillation of yesterday, today still forecast oscillations in the market, if effectively break up 1316.20, may be further upward, test 1333.80. Whereas the down through 1308.30, below the support at 1304.50 or lower.
Upward resistance: 1316.20, 1324.80, 1333.80, 1339.50,
Downward support: 1308.30, 1304.50, 1292, 1268.40
Silver:
Silver Trust, according to data released on 22 July, on 21 July, Silver holdings 10038.52 tons, compared with the previous was unchanged; the silver holdings worth fell to $6.753 billion.
Silver similar to gold, but the fluctuation range was narrowed, Suggestions on the wait and see.
Upward resistance: 21, 2130, 21.50, 22.20,
Downward support: 20.80, 20.50, 20,
This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.
PAR 07:25 GMT July 22, 2014
Risk On
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1 . It is Tuesday and then markets usually go higher.
2 . Ukraine separatists handed over black boxes and bodies.
3 . US CPI figures will show there is no inflation . So Yellen can repeat mantra " keep rates lower for longer "
4 . UN resolution calming bellicose talk on Ukraine . Full investigation to follow .
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:26 GMT July 22, 2014
AceTraderJul 22: Intra-Day Maket Moving News & Views & data to be released today
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Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
22 Jul 2014 01:26GMT
Bloomberg headline which came out in Australia, Kyodo news reported comments from Japan economy minister Amari who said Japan to decide on 10% sales tax hike in early Dec.
Dlr climbed on the news ahead of Asian open and hit intra-day high of 101.51 after tripping stops above last Fri's top at 101.45.
U.S. President Barack Obama & Polish President Komorowski stress in call need for "transatlantic solidarity" in response of Malaysia plane & "Russia's efforts to destabilise Ukraine" - White House.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
The release of China leading index, Japan leading index, Swiss trade balance, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends, U.S. CPI, core CPI, Redbook retail sales, home price and existing home sales.
jkt abel 00:30 GMT July 22, 2014
buy euro
Reply
buy euro 1.3524, stop below 1.3470
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