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Forex Forum Archive for 07/23/2014

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Mtl JP 23:11 GMT July 23, 2014
USD/JPY



livingston nh 22:17 10-yr may have to come off in price some before dlryen rallies

Mtl JP 22:31 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Nostalgic Blast from the Past

New Zealand has a fairly small economy, and using options Krieger is able to ultimately short the entire money supply of New Zealand

according to Investopedia "One part of the legend recounts a worried New Zealand government official calling up Krieger's bosses and threatening Bankers Trust to try to get Krieger out of the kiwi."

Livingston nh 22:17 GMT July 23, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply   
21 dma looks ready to give up - 101.80 and then 102.25

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:54 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

RBNZ Quick Thoughts.
Imre Speizer

The RBNZ's OCR Review this morning announced a 25bp increase in the OCR to 3.50%, which was widely expected. It also explicitly signalled a pause in the tightening cycle, again widely expected, although some market participants may interpret it as a halt to the tightening cycle. (Westpac)

GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT July 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, flash PMI, CN- flash HSBC PMI, FR, DE, EZ- flash PMIs. GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI, New Homes Sales

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, flash PMI, CN- flash HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: FR, DE, EZ- flash PMIs. GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI, New Homes Sales, Natural Gas.


Livingston nh 21:39 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

This is all political theater until somebody alters the script -- this is not south Africa, iran or north korea -- this is russia and if putin decides to ad lib the market will go crazy

dc CB 21:32 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

JP 21:18

the reason I posted that was the Twitter thing. "unconfirmed"

why does a statement from a "gov" official come out on Twitter? and why does the US press report it.

it's one thing for a Twitter report from a demonstrator in the square, quite another from an "Official" with access to "REAL MEDIA Channels".

this is just more of the same using Social Media to make the case.

GVI Forex john 21:18 GMT July 23, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY

JP CPI & Core CPI
CN HSBC flash PMI
FR MFG &SVC PMI flash
DE MFG &SVC PMI flash
EZ  MFG &SVC PMI flash
GB Ret Sls & x-fuel 
US Initial Claims
US Mfg PMI flash

FRIDAY

DE IFO Climate  
GB GDP
US Dur Goods & ex-trans

Mtl JP 21:18 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

dc CB 20:55 unless the "potentially serious diplomatic consequences" morph from "potentially" to tangible and "serious" to live ammunition exchange (i.e harsh diplomacy a la Israel / Palestine) he is just a blowhard of hot air.

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Strong words by RBNZ trying to jawbone the kiwi weaker. Last 0.8613 from 0.8700 level before the announcement.

GVI Forex john 21:11 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

"... Over recent months, export prices for dairy and timber have fallen, and these will reduce primary sector incomes over the coming year. With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall..."

GVI Forex john 21:06 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand

RBNZ
" ...The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on the assessment of the impact of the tightening in monetary policy to date, and the implications of future economic and financial data for inflationary pressures...."

GVI Forex john 21:00 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Hikes rates by 25bp to 3.50%, as expected


RELEASE: Reserve Bank of New Zealand


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

dc CB 20:55 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council, said the two jets had been hit by fire from the Russian side of the border.

“The planes were shot down from Russian territory,” Mr. Lysenko said in a statement on Twitter.

The allegation, which could not be independently verified, carries potentially serious diplomatic consequences

2 Ukraine Fighter Jets Shot Down as Fighting Intensifies

london red 20:39 GMT July 23, 2014
kiwi
Reply   
rbnz event should be a belter. an increase is almost fully priced in which gives for an interesting move if they signal a pause after lower than expected inflation. nzdjpy is struggling for breath running along a 2 year trendline from 2012 low. expect fireworks and plenty heading for the narrow exit door on a rate increase today plus pause. if they dare do nothing then someones hedge fund is going to the wall - this pair is on the first page of which carry trade. but for nzdusd the levels to watch are 8735, 8725, 8670, 8650, 8620.

dc CB 20:17 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

"It's hard to believe but State may not have enough "old Hands" dealing with Russia"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You mean you don't like the Prom Planning Team from the Student Council.
Yea Team....whot? You want to see that RedHead Jen Psaki instead of me?

Oh you Sexist Pig. Just YOU Wait til Hillary "takes the reins"

dc CB 20:10 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

dc CB 17:45 GMT
it's because of the WEATHER.

OOOPs

Livingston nh 20:08 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

It's hard to believe but State may not have enough "old Hands" dealing with Russia - Putin moved on Georgia w/o a problem so moving into Ukraine is a no brainer

US can't respond militarily (not worth the candle) so EU won't risk further sanction regime // military always trumps financial concerns

Paris ib 20:07 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

Kiev or Separists ?

A bit of to and fro

dc CB 19:44 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine



Fear? non here.
Yet 10Y 2.46
5y 1.65
USD almost 81

Auctions next week. The "follow the script" sell off so far has yet to materialize. Perhaps wars are no in the re-write for now.

Livingston nh 19:41 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

cb - this is SOP - Kerry in Israel and sanctions in Ukraine - same old same old - no problem /// BUT Putin's got the ball so only he can change the game // market doesn't care until the game changes

jeddah Abb 19:36 GMT July 23, 2014
..
Reply   
hope to see joe's posts for oil and Belgrade TD for other pairs..

GVI Forex john 19:35 GMT July 23, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:29 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

"Risk is sanctions and response -- Putin has a hammer so every response looks like a nail "

The problem is...this is the Face and the Reasoning the the State Dept is presenting. I wish it were not so.

State Dept press briefing

jeddah Abb 19:29 GMT July 23, 2014
..

sell from actual pice

jeddah Abb 19:26 GMT July 23, 2014
..
Reply   
i see gby jpy in weekly..can some sahre his view?

Paris ib 19:13 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

CB... so when do we start talking about sanctions against the U.S.? Given the U.S. support, arming and training of the Kiev regime? At any rate that doesn't seem to be happening on the other side of this conflict. What is happening is just an ongoing move away from the USD towards bilateral currency and trade agreements which by-pass the USD. The latest being Switzerland and China.

Livingston nh 19:13 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine

The system used to knock down the passenger jet (and fighters) was a Russian system and it requires a modicum of training (e.g., Russian operators) -- this is irrelevant to markets until somebody fights over the issue (see my 4/14 comment)

Risk is sanctions and response -- Putin has a hammer so every response looks like a nail

GVI Forex john 19:12 GMT July 23, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...






PAR 19:06 GMT July 23, 2014
Facebook
Reply   
Rumors Facebooks earnoing will be incredible ! This will send USA stock markets to Multi century highs. USA , has never been stonger . I hear Obama singing USA, USA, USA, and the to lost to ....... the smallest of al countries Belgium .

dc CB 19:00 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine
Reply   
interesting.

Mish is not a conspiracy tinhat type.

MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis

GVI Forex Blog 18:56 GMT July 23, 2014
Canadian Retail Sales Mixed. BOE Minutes Send Mixed Message. Thursday is a Major Data Day
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, fl PMI, CN- fl HSBC PMI, FR, DE, EZ- fl PMI. GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Claims, fl PMI, New Homes Sales

Early Thursday sees the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision. also a slew of flash PMI releases are due along with U.K. Retail Sales data. Canadian Retail Sales data are the North American open were mixed and saw the USDCAD gain.

Canadian Retail Sales Mixed. BOE Minutes Send Mixed Message. Thursday is a Major Data Day

Livingston nh 18:37 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

The cost of living did not rise at a slower pace - the CPI rose at a slower pace -- BLS asserts that CPI is not a ' cost of living" index (there is a recent Atlanta Fed mope opining about why the Great Unwashed don't get it)

Inflation is a process not an event

dc CB 18:16 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

which lie do you bet yo' money on??
Quote from Bloomberg artcl this morning

"The cost of living in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in June and home sales climbed to an eight-month high, showing the economy is generating little price pressure as growth accelerates.:

dc CB 17:55 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

POMO today
$2.774bln at 11:00AM

thurs: $2.00 - $2.50 billion

dc CB 17:49 GMT July 23, 2014
The Fix is in

ZH is pretty spot on about this:

Clearly, everyone understand that the only purpose behind implementing "gates" is to redirect the herd. And with some $2.6 trillion in assets, money markets can serve as a convenient source of "forced buying" now that QE is tapering if only for the time being. The only question is whether the herd will agree to this latest massive behavioral experiment by the Fed, and allocate their funds to a stock market which is now trading at a higher P/E multiple than during the last market peak.

And should this particular exercise in inflating stock bubbles fail, then gating bond funds, another "reform" which as we reported last month is in the works, should certainly force equities to unseen bubble proportions.

The "Gates" Are Closing: SEC Votes Through Money Market Reform

dc CB 17:45 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

it's because of the WEATHER.
Yes this is still being voiced. Now for retail sales, it's because of the "cooler tha normal" summer.
just keep saying the same line over and over and soon everyone is saying it. Even if it's the end of July.

In this month's Monthly Economic Review, Kleinhenz noted, “…one of the worst winters in recent memory kept shoppers home during the first quarter, and weak numbers for real estate, inventories and exports continued to hamper the economy through the second quarter

GVI Forex john 17:42 GMT July 23, 2014
The Fix is in

I love these arrogant lawyers who feel they are smarter than everyone else and feel they can legislate financial security by making a rule or passing a law. I was around when Glass-Steagall was in place and we had major bank failures all the time. The reason why Greenspan agreed to the creation of mega-banks was to provide them with fortress balance sheets so they could not fail. We all know how that worked out!

A word to the wise, extending loans is an inherently risky business and no Harvard lawyer is going to be able to make that risk go away. Financial institutions have been failing forever. Get used to it. How does taking away the fixed pice value of a money market mutual fund make them safer?

Livingston nh 17:32 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

jp - IMF (like most) base their GDP figs on "real" (post inflation) estimates -- nominal is the more important - BUT since the US deflator does not exclude food and energy it is usually the place where inflation shows first (used to be the Fed's preferred and then CPI, and now PCE excluding everything) // rule of thumb q/q GDP deflator ~ 60% of CPI so "real" Q2 could be held down by even the "soft CPI" that analysts are calling yesterday's fig

dc CB 17:28 GMT July 23, 2014
The Fix is in
Reply   
Regulators have voted by a narrow margin to end a longtime staple of the investment industry — the fixed $1 share price for money-market mutual funds — at least for some money funds used by big investors.

The idea is to minimize the risk of a mass withdrawal from the funds during a financial panic.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also is letting money funds block withdrawals when their assets fall below certain levels or impose fees for withdrawals.

The SEC action "will reduce the risk of runs in money-market funds and provide important new tools that will help further protect investors and the financial system in a crisis," SEC Chair Mary Jo White said.

Daniel Gallagher, a Republican SEC commissioner, said the regulators' action puts the industry and investors on notice that there won't be a government rescue of money-market funds.

"We are taking action to correct any impression of a federal backstop," Gallagher said. The SEC "can't bail out any firm or product."

S.E.C. Votes to End Fixed Share Price for Some Money Funds

GVI Forex john 17:14 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.451% -3ps on the day. Looks like continued political risk and a failure of the DJIA to hold onto early gains giving the 10-yr a bid.

nw kw 16:40 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

rand aud rush. are strong ?

but usa is so down it can snap back

http://buygoldsilver.org/gold-price-charts.html

GVI Forex john 16:39 GMT July 23, 2014
FAA
Reply   
extends ban on U.S. flights to israel for another 24 hours. Flights in the air yesterday were diverted to other destinations. The ban could be lifted at any time.

Mtl JP 16:32 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

I am not holding my breath for the depth and breadth of Lady Ashton's delivery of her "extended Russian sanctions" tomorrow.

Mtl JP 16:26 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

reminder: aud is fiat
accessible physical Gold is everything as, for example, French King Charles VII found out when he was fighting the English.

IF it had not been for the "persuasive skills" of his mistress Agnes Sorel to convince French "noblemen" to help out with payroll for his army, France today might have been speaking English.

Mtl JP 16:18 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

IMF snips U.S. 2014 growth forecast to 1.7 percent
Wed, 23rd Jul 2014 16:30

WASHINGTON, July 23 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to grow even more slowly this year than it predicted a month ago due to weakness in the first quarter.

The IMF said the world's largest economy should grow 1.7 percent in 2014, below its June prediction of 2 percent growth. .../..

nw kw 16:17 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

JP it cant lift his big head//audgold spread increased to 25 from 10 aud strength will not stall

GVI Forex john 16:09 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Into the European close, traders find themselves in a mixed risk position. Equities are still mostly higher but they are off peak levels. Word two Ukrainian jets were shot down earlier has seen yields on fixed income instruments fall.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have broadly eased again  after having fallen sharply last week .Yields on the European periphery are mostly lower. .EZ 10-yr 1.15%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend, but will be future data-Dependant..
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.46%,  -1bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are ending up. U.S. shares are mixed.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 16:07 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

sofar Vlad has not demanded payment in physical Gold for supplies of crude / nat gas from the gang that Lady Ashton thinks she represents. Vlad's Antonov 225 can lift +/- 250 tons

Paris ib 16:05 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

It's an open question IF there will in fact be 'more sanctions' placed on Russia. Or indeed if the basis for such demands are sound.

NY JM 16:00 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

Geopolitical concerns are a weight on the EUR => more sanctions would have potential for a greater impact on Europe, especially Germany due to the trade relationship with Russia.

Paris ib 15:35 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

"The situation in eastern Ukraine remains very tense this morning."

Indeed. There is a civil war underway.

GVI Forex Blog 15:28 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The situation in eastern Ukraine remains very tense this morning. Two more Ukrainian fighter jets have been shot down by the rebels, possibly from locations inside of Russia. Meanwhile there have been reports of Russian military exercises on Ukraine's northern border and of an emergency Duma meeting. Ukraine press sources suggest that Putin will instruct the Duma to demand an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: S&P500 Poised Just Shy of All-Time Highs

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:16 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Gotin, check your email

Plovdiv Gotin 15:14 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

BTW 1.3475 is the weakest sup in the area 1.34/1.35 leading to 1.3304(-171 pips)....1875.

GVI Forex john 15:14 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.460%-2bp after worries about the shoot-down of two Ukrainian jets fade. Equities are mixed and EURUSD is holding.

GVI Forex john 14:43 GMT July 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

Note Thursday has an exceptionally heavy data calendar.

GVI Forex Blog 14:41 GMT July 23, 2014 Reply   
July 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, flash PMI, CN- flash HSBC PMI, FR, DE, EZ- flash PMIs. GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI, New Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 24, 2014

NY JM 14:39 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Sub-1.3475 maintains yesterday's breakout. 18 pip EURUSD range so far today.

GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT July 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, flash PMI, CN- flash HSBC PMI, FR, DE, EZ- flash PMIs. GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI, New Homes Sales

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ, JP- CPI, flash PMI, CN- flash HSBC PMI.
  • Europe: FR, DE, EZ- flash PMIs. GB- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, flash PMI, New Homes Sales, Natural Gas.


GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT July 23, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -3.970 vs. -2.500 exp vs. -7.500 prev.
Gasoline: +1.400 vs. +1.5 exp vs. +0.017 prev.
Distillates: +1.600 vs. +2.0 exp vs. +2.530 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.80% vs. 93.60% exp vs. 93.80% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 14:32 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

New record high on the S and P - WWIII appears to be delayed.

Paris ib 14:24 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

I would expect nothing less for the European chinless deviant. While the Anglo-Saxon press has been frothing at the mouth about this incident (even though the U.K. continues to sell arms to Russia) the response on the continent is slightly less hysterical. After all there is money involved here, business with Russia is not peanuts. In addition, the Russians have started to provide evidence that contradicts the 'social media' based evidence that the United States has been promoting around the place. I have no idea what is going on but I find the hysterical nature of the Anglo-Saxon press a little off putting to say the least. And then we have the dunce Tony Abbott putting his two cents in (which doesn't add to the credibility of those supporting the Kiev establishment).

Question: what happens if it turns out that Kiev based fighter jets downed the airline? Do we then have calls for sanctions against the United States?

Trial by Social Media

The whole thing is starting to look like a debacle.

The Malaysian Plane incident

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News

Lady Ashton is supposed to present "extended Russian sanctions".
On Thursday.
fwiw

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 EZ Consumer Confidence prelim
Reply   




ALERT
-8.4 vs. -7.5 vs. -7.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:51 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Gotin 13:46 until it happens it is a theoretical possibility

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT July 23, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

The chart below is based on daily information. The two year does not move much over the day. The EURUSD pair moves generally in the direction of the 2-yr, but it is not as sensitive to short-term swings.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:46 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JP/ And if 1.3370 not hold....1.3295 right?

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT July 23, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE refi rate and GBPUSD. 2y vs, BOE Repo Rate. 2yr is where the market is pricing where the Official target rate will AVERAGE over the next two years. The GBPUSD is reacting to the latest correction downward In UK rates.

These relationships tell you what you need to know about the GBPUSD. It will be increasingly sensitive

to U.K. economic data as the year wears 0n.





Mtl JP 13:44 GMT July 23, 2014
AUDUSD

why not look at the gv chartpoints brother (sister) ?
-
audusd
Res 3 0.9485
Pivot 0.9391

hk at 13:37 GMT July 23, 2014
AUDUSD
Reply   
Can someone suggest a resistance?

NY JM 13:35 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

That assumes 1.3475 holds on top.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:21 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

10x

Mtl JP 13:18 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Gotin - on short-term while under the Pivot, bias is down and some targets are:
Pivot 1.3486
quote:1.3463-ish
Sup 1 1.3441
Sup 2 1.3415
Sup 3 1.3370

Plovdiv Gotin 13:18 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

o.k. understood. Somebody else, pls?TIA.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Gotin, they are my video.

GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.451%-3bp

Looks like risk-off but equites are higher. Mixed messages

Plovdiv Gotin 13:10 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

will U post some figures?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:06 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I offered today's video - covers key levels and targets.

Request the Video

Plovdiv Gotin 13:04 GMT July 23, 2014
eur/usd Hi
Reply   
What is the target from Hi=1.3475?tia.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:01 GMT July 23, 2014
May 2014 Canada: Retail Sales

It would be a lot more fun if the market reacted to these events.

sd sf 12:51 GMT July 23, 2014
May 2014 Canada: Retail Sales

the new plane/s shoot down probably takes all the speculation out of the market... now just some position adjustment.

GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT July 23, 2014
May 2014 Canada: Retail Sales

Canada: Retail Sales mixed. Prior data revised higher. CAD steady.

london red 12:35 GMT July 23, 2014
May 2014 Canada: Retail Sales

ex autos is the one to watch, soft. it possible it can squeeze up to 30 on this but aussie strong overnight assists the cad.

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT July 23, 2014
May 2014 Canada: Retail Sales
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Headline:+0.70% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +1.10% (r 1.30%) prev.
X-Autos: +0.10% vs. +0.3% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.80%) prev.


RELEASE: Canadian Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

U.S. 10-yr 2.460% -2bp
USDCAD 1.0718 pre Canadian data

london red 12:24 GMT July 23, 2014
loonie
Reply   
retails sales up shortly, not normally a big mover but take on added significance given BoC stance to overlook higher inflation, preferring to focus on economic data. If data is seen to improve and with inflation already warranting a change in stance, cad would strengthen.
10707 is a fib, with 20 day at 10695. forms a band which needs to be held to avoid re test of 1.06/30.
topside, res in form of 10 day ma at 10730 with 200 hour at 37.

PAR 12:20 GMT July 23, 2014
Ukraine
Reply   
Two Ukrainian Jets Shot Down, Defense Ministry Says



KIEV, Ukraine — Jul 23, 2014, 7:45 AM ET

Two Ukrainian military jets were shot down in the Donetsk region of the country today, the Ukrainian defense ministry said.

The planes were identified as Sukhoi-25 fighter jets. The fate of the planes' pilots was not immediately known.

It happened at 12:30 p.m. Ukraine time. Defense ministry did not state what kind of weapon was used to down the jets.

The Sukhoi-25 are single seat combat fighter jets. That same type of jet was shot down by a missile July 16.

The shoot down of the jets came in the same rebellious eastern part of the country where Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down, killing 298 people on board. The MH17 flight was believed to have been shot down by a BUK anti-aircraft missile system.

london red 12:15 GMT July 23, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

cable, some support at 24 15 and 6993. unlikely to see a daily close below fig with retail sales tom and gdp fri.

GVI Forex john 11:54 GMT July 23, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Selected BOE Carney Comments-
- Rate Rises Expected to Be Gradual, Limited
- Economic Headwinds May Take Some Time to Die Down
- Some Conflicting Signals on Labor Market Slack
- No Pre-set Timing on Rate Rise
- UK Economy Heading Back to Normal

GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT July 23, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR narrowly mixed, but down sharply vs. the commodity currencies. Spot to 20-day averages are negative, except vs. AUD.




GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:55 GMT July 23, 2014
broker slipage

Mike, check your email - others feel free to respond as well

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:51 GMT July 23, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Run towards 1,3400 or will it be consolidation, I cover it in my Daily Forex Trading Video Outlook - click below to request a copy of today's outlook

Request the Video

GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT July 23, 2014
July 2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --


+21 vs. +15 exp. vs. +4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 09:49 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Dealers noted that the gradual widening in interest rate differentials between US/Europe gave the greenback an advantage. The premium offered by two-year U.S. Treasuries over German debt has widened to around 46 basis points, levels not seen since 2007

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE July minutes did not cast any dissenting votes on rates

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:34 GMT July 23, 2014
AceTrader Jul 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

23 Jul 2014 08:43GMT

GBP/USD - .... Despite a brief spike up to 1.7095 after the release of BoE minutes, the British pound swiftly pared its gains n dropped to 1.7063 as the minutes were deemed as less hawkish than expected. BoE minutes showed that the MPC committee is still looking at the pros n cons for an early rate rise n that they were worried about hurting the country's economic recovery.

Offers are now seen at 1.7080/90 n more above at 1.7100/05 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.7040/45, suggesting selling cable on intra-day recovery is still favored.

BoE releases its minutes, Quote:
'MPC have pre-set view on timing of a rate rise, will depend on data;
some MPC members feel decision on rate rise had become more balanced over past few months than earlier in the year;
growth generally looking more assured but tentative indications of slight slowdown forecast for H2;
one view was that risk of small rate rise derailing economy had receded, cud help assess response of economy;
size of labor market slack uncertain so pace at which it is used may be more relevant;
other view was that unexpected rate rise cud have outsize impact as global growth grows;
little indication of inflationary pressures building;
different MPC members put different weights on these interpretations;
expect Q2 GDP growth of 0.9% b4 slowing modestly in Q3 n Q4;
response of mkts to geopolitical events n economic risks surprisingly low.'

GVI Forex Blog 09:12 GMT July 23, 2014
Mixed Risk Posture Early Today. Canadian Retail Sales Due. Mixed BOE Minutes
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, CA- Retail Sales

Canadian Retail Sales data are the top release for the day today. BOE Policy minutes sent a mixed message to the markets. The BOE focus recently has been the amount of slack in the economy. Less slack would reduce the capacity for additional policy ease. Also some concerns were expressed about the global macro-economic environment.

Mixed Risk Posture Early Today. Canadian Retail Sales Due. Mixed BOE Minutes

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT July 23, 2014
2Q14 Australia CPI
Reply   




EARLIER

QQ: +0.50% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.60% prev.
YY: 3.00% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +2.90% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


EARLIER: 1Q14 CPI in line. AUDUSD Rises.

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT July 23, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Early Wednesday, markets are taking a neutral risk posture as global worries about the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel persist with no resolutions in sight. Equties are making the bet that theses conflibts will fade. Fixed Income markets are mor cautious.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have barely changed after having fallen sharply last week .Yields on the European periphery are up.The German 10-yr bund is 1.17%, -1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.59%  0bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend, but will be future data-dependant.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%,  +1bp.
  • Equities closed mostly higher in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are stronger. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 08:43 GMT July 23, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

with nothing new from the BoE it may be a surprise that cable hasnt moved lower, but it is being supported by the eurgbp weakness. still, an hourly close above 17075 eludes cable and unless we get that (which precludes a test of 200 hour ma) the pair is likely to stay under pressure today. with retail sales and gdp thurs and fri, dip buyers will be aplenty, so id continue with such a strategy. data may not be positive as seen today but it will take the market a while to stop buying ahead of uk data and while the strategy continues to pay off, there's no need to change it.

GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT July 23, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Mixed comments by BOE members. Talk slack in economy falling faster than expected but global economy may be slowing. Mixed opinions. BOE clearly will be future data dependant. GBPUSD a touch weaker.

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT July 23, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0
Bank of England




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:14 GMT July 23, 2014
AceTrader Jul 23: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

23 Jul 2014 05:20GMT

USD/JPY - .... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote:
'Japan's economy recovering moderately as a trend, impact of sales tax hike easing; sales tax hike reduces real household income, so must watch its impact on consumption;
global financial regulation must be created in a way that does not excessively hamper private-sector banking activity;
too early to debate specific exit strategy for BoJ's QEE programme;
BoJ has experience exiting previous QE in 2006 and already has various means to withdraw liquidity;
how to use such means to withdraw liquidity and in what order, would depend on economic, price conditions at the time;
BoJ won't be able to use same exit strategy as when it ended previous QE, as its balance sheet is larger and debt duration is longer;
monetary policy has a role to lay in addressing financial imbalances ;
in general, prolonged ultra-loose policy may spur excessive risk taking, but no such behavior seen in Japan.'

23 Jul 2014 02:17GMT
USD/JPY - .... Although dlr edged higher in Tokyo morning n climbed to 101.54, renewed broad-based buying in yen quickly emerged after comments BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso (see our prev. MMN) n pressured price to 101.39.

Today, the greenback shud remain supportive as the release of solid U.S. inflation and existing home sales numbers y'day determines that the U.S. economy continues to improve n is in need of less support fm the Federal Reserve. Therefore, buying dlr on dips in anticipation of next intra-day upmove is recommended, however, as broad outlook is consolidative n in an absence of U.S. economic events in U.S. today, reckon renewed selling may emerge below last Wed's high of 101.79 n yield retreat later.

At the moment, bids are noted at 101.25/20 n around 101.10 with stops emerging just below 101.00. On the upside, offers are placed at 101.55/60 n then 101.70 with mixture of offers n stops located at 101.95/00.

Earlier quoting source fm the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.

Auckland 07:03 GMT July 23, 2014
23/07/2014 Gold and silver analysis
Reply   
23/07/2014 Gold and silver analysis
MMI GROUP
gold
US inflation data from the previous value fell of the overnight, but largely in line with market expectations, yesterday gold appeared two rapid fluctuations, amplitude is limited, date line is still no directional point.
According to data from the monitoring of Gold ETFs On July 23, until July 22 Gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust of Gold holdings is about 804.84 tons or 25876305.86 ounces, 1.50 tons of increase from the previous session.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team think the golden triangle break contraction along yesterday, today it may consider high empty, such as break up 1313.80 on broken line, can light warehouse more than single participation.
The upward resistance: 1310.40, 1313.80, 1318.40, 1324.80,
The downward support: 1298.80, 1298.80, 1268.40

Silver:
Silver hit a short-term downlink channel along the back on yesterday, if it is not break up on the broken line, 21.10 is given priority to with short thinking, can be further downside test 20.60.
The upward resistance: 21.10, 21.30, 21.60,
The downward support: 21.60, 20.60, 20.30,

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

Calgary Mika 06:33 GMT July 23, 2014
broker slipage
Reply   
I deal with a broker who does not advertise here, I think they are quite reputable and trust my money with them and they have been consistently been rated high with little or no complaints over the years, BUT I have noticed lately their slippage at news time is to me a little excessive, but perhaps i am wrong and it is just the nature of thin markets right now. Earlier today when AUD news came out (1:30 GMT) I was short with a stop loss at .9397, I was filled at 9420. 20 pips seems quite common lately at news time, especially in AUD/US and GBP/US. Is this excessive or the new normal?

GVI Forex Blog 06:20 GMT July 23, 2014 Reply   
0.6%e ; Y/Y: 2.9% (multi-year high) v 2.7%e - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 1.6% (2nd consecutive increase) V 1.8% PRIOR ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX +0

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: AUD/USD hits 2-week high on hotter CPI; BHP iron ore output tops prior forecast - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:16 GMT July 23, 2014
AceTrader Jul 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

23 Jul 2014 01:33GMT

USD/JPY - .... Statement from BoJ's Deputy Governor Nakaso quote: 'Japan's economy continues to grow above its potential; domestic demand is firm but exports continue to move sideways;
expect Japan's economy to continue to grow above its potential as virtuous cycle is sustained;
QQE exerting its intended effect with long-term yields moving stably, inflation expectations rising as a whole;
Japan eyeing end of deflation but still half-way through in meeting BoJ's price target;
won't hesitate to adjust policy if risks threaten change to our economic, price projections;
no evidence to confirm view that U.S. is suffering "secular stagnation"; situation in Ukraine, Russia a potential risk for global outlook, warrants attention;
I am somewhat concern about slow growth in emerging economies, particularly in Asia; decline in Japan's private consumption broadly in line with initial expectations;
pace of recovery in Japan's exports has been slower than in the past when considering pace of recovery in global growth, yen moves;
Japan's real exports are expected to increase moderately, though must watch developments "without undue optimism"; Japan likely to achieve 2% inflation in or around fiscal 2015.'

Earlier quoting source from the Nikkie which said Abe advisers urge an initial 2% corporate tax cut.


Wednesday will see the release of Australia CPI, France business climate, UK BoE minutes, BBA mortgage approvals, Italy trade balance, Canada retail sales and EU consumer confidence.

KL KL 01:47 GMT July 23, 2014
SELL AUDUSD!!!
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Whooosh....Armada in Battle formation and firing hard...relentlessly hard!!...LOL

sold....9434...and relentless too....managed to chased to .94377....so now wait for more flurry and also sold ASX 200 5580 and every 5 points higher....no problem.... DYOR DFM DLTM..imvho ...

GVIForex 01:35 GMT July 23, 2014
Aussie CPI
Reply   
AUSTRALIA Q2 ALL GROUPS CPI +3.0% Y/Y; MNI MEDIAN +3.0%

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:33 GMT July 23, 2014
Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower

When and why is addressed in this article

Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower

GVI Forex Blog 00:28 GMT July 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
* Euro hits fresh 2014 low against dollar as support cracks

* Swiss franc also under pressure against greenback

* Australian dollar eyes domestic inflation data

FOREX-Euro finally gives in, Aussie eyes CPI test

Mtl JP 00:01 GMT July 23, 2014
AUSSIE COULD SUFFER A LOT MORE IF CHINESE DEBT MATTERS

maybe if China GDP goes further n faster down the toilet it will have an impact on US int rates regardless of what Janet wants for them

 




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