Mtl JP 22:21 GMT July 25, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
john 19:44 that short euro build looks massive
makes me think it probably equates or comes close to the sentiment buildup level of Sep 2012 which inspired Mario bazooka believe me it will be enough yikyak.
how times change <<-sigh->>
Kiev AF 19:51 GMT July 25, 2014
Reply
Buy CALENDAR
Entry: 1 Target: 1 Stop: 1
Hello!
I'm writting here to discuss a list of
I want to know what brockers do you know and what experience you would like to share?
Thank you!
london red 19:33 GMT July 25, 2014
Week Ahead
wednesday gets US gdp thursday gets canadian gdp. potentially a lot of pips to play for here.
london red 18:58 GMT July 25, 2014
Thanks Alot
members come and go but taking part is what makes the board work (to the lurkers out there). i certainly think all ideas and theories are worth a moment spent, something you didnt consider before, helping you to make positive adjustments or your input that might help someone else avoid a poor decision.
GVI Forex john 18:24 GMT July 25, 2014
Thanks Alot
sf- Thank you. member feedback is always helpful.
I join in your thanks to RED, JP and others too many to name.
Have a nice weekend!
As for the speeches I will see what I can do
sd sf 18:09 GMT July 25, 2014
Thanks Alot
Reply
Special thanks to RED for all his posts last few days.
and to
GVI JOHN - for all his hard work with the updates/charts : Monday-Friday every week.
1. suggestion for the calender - the biggest moves are coming from speeches in the off hours - so probably an idea to start including the major speakers in your list as well.
GT>
GVI Forex john 17:13 GMT July 25, 2014
EURUSD Fundamentals
It seems to me that spot forex is more aligned with the 2yr rate than the 19s. Remember you can use the 2s as a proxy monetary policy forecast so this might make some sense. The 10yr has more influences on it than the 2s.
GVI Forex john 17:09 GMT July 25, 2014
EURUSD Fundamentals
Another EURUSD indicator...
Eurozone 2y vs ECB refi rate
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs ECB refi rate:. 2yr is where the market is betting the Official target rate
will AVERAGE over the next two years. The divergence between the 2y and refi indicates the major institutional players have
decided currently that more Eurozone economic weakness is probable and additional ECB monetary ease will follow. If not, the
two yr yield would be HIGHER. The EURUSD roughly follows the 2y. Under more "normal" circumstances the exchange rate would be following the 2y more closely. The current configuration id EURUSD negative.
GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT July 25, 2014
EURUSD Fundamentals
Reply
EURUSD against 10-yr DE-US yield spread. EURUSD has reduced downside potential??..
GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Europe markets logically have been taking a modest risk-off
posture into the weekend. There are ample geopolitical reasons to take
a reduced profile. The week ahead features an FOMC meeting and
the July monthly NFP report. The EURUSD is currently lower on the day.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are lower and remain well below levels from early last
week
.Yields
on the European
periphery are down. .EZ 10-yr 1.15%, -3bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.57% -4bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend..
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%, -3bp. The
psychological pivot remains 2.50%
- Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe
are ending weak. U.S. share futures are down.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:26 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
CNBC citing talk of further EU sanctions weighing on equities. This is also weighing non the EUR, which is not getting any safe haven flows.
This was posted on GVI Forex earlier:
The EU is expected to publish a blacklist of people, companies, and organizations today�a so-called cronies list of business allies of Putin. Broader sanctions are expected on Tuesday. In what would be a significant escalation of the bloc's efforts to isolate Moscow, the broader measures are expected to cover capital markets, defense, dual-use goods, and sensitive technologies.
(Bank Report)
dc CB 15:19 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS UNITED STATES SUPPORTED 'COUP' IN KIEV, SHARES BLAME FOR BLOODSHED IN UKRAINE
RUSSIA VOICES ANGER OVER "UNFOUNDED PUBLIC INSINUATIONS" BY U.S. STATE DEP'T REPRESENTATIVE OVER UKRAINE -FOREIGN MINISTRY
Mtl JP 14:39 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
red it is a Bizarro's world where "inflation" reflects GDP growth
and Yes, We Have No Banana - NYT
SaaR KaL 14:39 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
IMO This EURUSD Drop
is good for another 3 weeks
Slow and Boring
till 1.32ish
Bullish from there to 1.42
dc CB 14:29 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
Confirming now 19 deaths. Starting to show in the stock price.
But if you listen to the press...more people are Buying GM cars.
The line is: when they go into the dealership for a recall repair, they end up driving out in a new car. So the "deathmobiles" are having no effect on GM's ability to sell cars.
Sort of like StoX...you know they are going to crash, you just hope it won't happen while you're driving at 70mph in a fully margined portfolio.
GVI Forex Blog 14:25 GMT July 25, 2014
Reply
July 25, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home Sales
GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 28, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:23 GMT July 25, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
July 25, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 28.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home
Sales
- Far East: JP- Unemployment, Retail Sales.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- flash Markit Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales, 2-yr Auction.
Mtl JP 14:14 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
CB is that a gov't / Fed subsidized GM branded bus ?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:06 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
EUR weak on all fronts, crosses paint mixed USD picture due to offsets.
SaaR KaL 13:56 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
The funny thing I get
EURJPY Very Bullish
Pair Mx Cls Mn Cls Mx 2 Cls Mn 2 Cls
EURNZD 1.5808 1.5711 1.5809 1.5692
EURJPY 137.47 136.94 137.56 136.73
dc CB 13:48 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
JP
Mtl JP 13:45 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
dang ! DJIA opened down over -100 points . while money got cheaper ... (but maybe not accessible ?)
london red 13:43 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
hearing some revs to q2 number off durable revs. some looking as low as 2.3% q2
dc CB 13:43 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
SnP cash is 20pts away from breaking 2000.
We'll see that before 1950.
Gammy's got a rocket in her pocket.
GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
JP it is working exceptionally well with emini S&P futures.
Mtl JP 13:39 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
the 10-yr <-> usdyen correlation not working ,
at least not sofar, this am
dc CB 13:38 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
actually Visa is much more impt than Amazon...to market Jitters.
and V is 8% of the DJIA
SaaR KaL 13:38 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
USDJPY
Pair Mx Cls Mn Cls MX 2 Cls Mn 2 Cls
USDJPY 102.23 101.79 102.32 101.59
a Buy
london red 13:34 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
have no access to bids/offers but was a big level on way up. if breaks should pop to 70 sharpily.
Mtl JP 13:31 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
red can u plz cast some light on why usdyen is still holding 101.80ish
tia
SaaR KaL 13:28 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPAUD Longs
NDX Shorts
Thank you for the Txt Edit to Fit
Pair Mx Cls Mn Cls MX 2 Cls Mn 2 Cls
NDX 3948 3932 3962 3930
GBPAUD 1.8107 1.8045 1.8112 1.8019
GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT July 25, 2014
July 2014 German IFO Survey
NEW CHART: Latest German ZEW and IFO surveys "expectations" minus "current situation". This provides the implied forecasts.
Both Surveys are a little less pessimistic for next six months.
london red 13:28 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
10's were bought big time right after durables, maybe someone was waiting for them to be released before position take rather than a result of. either way yilelds are down.
worst kid in class index (eurnzd) still shows eur holding onto 21 hour, while eurgbp has touched and so far held hourliy trendline. if these two fail, i would be confident of a move thru first euro support otherwise you cannot see where the move is going to come from.
Mtl JP 13:23 GMT July 25, 2014
when goalposts are movable to fit the script
Reply
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve said Friday that it won't object to a resubmitted capital plan by Zions Bancorp ZION +1.51% . The Fed had previously rejected a plan because the bank did not meet the minimum, post-stress tier 1 common ratio of 5%, but under the new submission, the firm's minimum, post-stress tier 1 common ratio was 5.1%.
Mtl JP 13:18 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
10-yr currently rocking uP in price (down in yield)
euro should find some support at 1.34 if attacked
keyword: some
london red 13:15 GMT July 25, 2014
EUR Heat Map
i have some monthly support for euro at 3425 and 3404-3395. while im not particularly bullish i would expect a severe fall if the latter if broken, but i dont see the volume or intent for it today. and since its friday and since we are at the lows its time to warn about retracement theory again, ultra st traders excepted. but worth remembering when chasing lows otherwise.
dc CB 13:14 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
as I noted last evening. the Alibaba IPO slated for sometime in Sept. Jack Ma, coming to eat Bezo's lunch.
bailng on the 'Zon????
GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
interesting pattern in the stocks I watch
DAX and CAC down fairly sharply
FTSE about steady
U.S. futures continue to fall.
Livingston nh 13:07 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
AMZN - hourly chart has probably put fear into market - a 50 point drop on open? Who will say "the Emperor has no clothes"? // market always gives one last chance but you never know for sure
Mtl JP 12:47 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
red 12:32 which is that:
the ccy war declaration or
the durable goods #s ?
SaaR KaL 12:45 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
Sorry about that
Pair Max Close Min Close
EURUSD 1.3464 1.3399
Gold 1,294.6 1,284.6
Cable 1.6971 1.6909
AUDUSD 0.9396 0.9361
Pair
EURUSD Max To Close Min Close
Gold 1.3484 1.3399
Cable 1,301.9 1,281.9
AUDUSD 1.7018 1.6909
0.9427 0.9359
SaaR KaL 12:44 GMT July 25, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
Pair Max Cls Min Cls Max To Cls Min Cle
EURUSD 1.3464 1.3399 1.3484 1.3399
Gold 1,294.6 1,284.6 1,301.9 1,281.9
Cable 1.6971 1.6909 1.7018 1.6909
AUDUSD 0.9396 0.9361 0.9427 0.9359
Mtl JP 12:26 GMT July 25, 2014
EUR Heat Map
GVI Forex john 10:26 GMT July 24, 2014
EUR Heat Map: Reply
JP- It is so declared OFFICIALLY.
We are in the midst of currency wars.
--
Bottom Line
besides gumflapping , relative interest rates should gain in their combat role
london red 12:24 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
kiwi fib 8536 watching for further decay. if thru then 8505 and then trendline and 200 day beckon c. 8440/50. looking for eurnzd short nxt week but likely to be c. 158 with stop over 5850/60. once fomc out of way carry trades will be loved again if fomc as i expect fails to acknowledge improvements in economy.
Mtl JP 12:19 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
poof ... turns out sub 1.3440 is seen first
London Misha 11:38 GMT July 25, 2014
Hearing...
Reply
Hearing - talk from Norwegian authorities (allegedly) speaking of a credible terrorist threat on 28th July - Syrian related!
london red 11:18 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
with only durables to come weekend might be setting in early. yields should stay firm into next weeks fomc as market tries to box yellen into a corner. ultimately thats unlikely to get a reaction at this stage but thats a move for next week not today so unless we get yields coming off doesnt look like we'll break any ranges. usdjpy looks a good sell into 102 with stop over 102.15 which should be good until fomc. it might be a trade that can be repeated a few times as downside likely to be limited to 60/70.
Mtl JP 10:58 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
on a micro-time basis euro likely to see 1.3460 before it sees sub 1.3440
Plovdiv Gotin 09:51 GMT July 25, 2014
euro
There is still a chance if eur/usd hold above 1.3370, 1.3994 to be broken. Opinions pls?TIA
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:16 GMT July 25, 2014
AceTrader Jul 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jul 2014 08:20GMT
EUR/USD - .. Ifo economist Wohlrabe said, quote:
'scale of drop in climate index surprising but wouldn't call it a change in trend;
geopolitical tensions come at same time as slowdown fm very good Q1 for German business;
German domestic business climate still strg but export expectations at lowest lvl in more than a year;
influence of Ukraine n mid-east conflicts cannot be measured in concrete terms;
expects German economic growth for 2014 to be as forecast at 2.0% or perhaps slightly higher.'
The single currency fell to intra-day low of 1.3443 after German Ifo Jul business sentiment index unexpectedly dropped to 108.0, forecast was 109.4.
However, talk of bids at 1.3440-30 n more below has contained weakness, so minor range trading abv y'day's fresh 8-month trough at 1.3438 is likely. Offers have been lowered to 1.3455/65 n more are tipped at 1.3475/85, suggesting selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
london red 09:13 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
john i hesitated in posting that comment as the revision comment has given the bulls something to work with. what the BoE didnt state was that it requires june figues of +2.5% m/m ip & constn to give us the revision to 0.9%. it may happen but not a certainty by any means as these are big gains even for a buoyant economy like the uk.
that all said, with focus shifting to fomc and US data plus only second tier uk releases, i think we should see a move to 169-1694.
london red 09:01 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
have taken profit on cable short here as still long eurgbp. this is just prudence, i dont believe it to have bottomed yet. looking to re sell during next hour. do not expect hourly high of more than 90 but ready to sell from 75-85.
london red 08:49 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
eurgbp briefly dips under 10 day ma but stopped short of 200 hour, now hourly candle looking to close with a long tail suggestive of a move to 21 day ma at 37. cable needs to confirm by taking out 64 to bring 50 into play, otherwise a risk of another relief rally.
GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT July 25, 2014
July 2014 German IFO Survey
"The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell to 108.0 points in July from 109.7 points last month. This marks the third decrease in succession. Assessments of the current business situation were less favourable than in June. Companies were also less optimistic about future business developments. Geopolitical tensions are taking their toll on the German economy..." IFO
IFO Climate Survey
london red 08:38 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
watch cable for move below pre release, will strongly point to test of day low and 64
GVI Forex john 08:36 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
U.K. preliminary 2Q14 GDP solid and dead on expectations. GBP gains.
london red 08:33 GMT July 25, 2014
UK GDP-- 2Q14 preliminary
added that an uptick revision is expected, given sterling a lift. but its not enough to change sentiment i feel. sell blip to 17020-50
GVI Forex john 08:23 GMT July 25, 2014
July 2014 German IFO Survey
IFO reportedly saying it is too early to conclude the economy is turning lower.
I suggest you look at the chart and draw your own conclusions. IFO never has come across to me as an unbiased observers. They always seem to be cheerleading the economy.
london red 08:15 GMT July 25, 2014
upcoming uk gdp trades
Reply
f/c 0.8 with small risk of one tick either side. eurgbp took the 10 day ma yest and is now support at 16. the 21 day has capped the downtrend for some 4 months and 4 big figs, today at 37. a daily close above here will be a sign of 7960 certainly by next week and 8000. the euro is starting to do well on the other crosses (aud,nzd,jpy) and its a sign of a counter trend rally in the offing.
given this state of affairs it appears cable needs a 0.9 or higher print to keep face today. given the improved dollar sentiment and yields continuing to stay firm, the 80 day ema is at risk (6907) if support at 64,50 and 42 give way. on the topside 17050 is a res on a 0.9 flash but ultimately 17075 should hold any rally today even on a strong gdp print without a turn in yields/dollar sentiment.
GVI Forex john 08:07 GMT July 25, 2014
July 2014 German IFO Survey
German Ifo data: German data much softer than expected across the board. This is a broadly followed report EURUSD dips.
GVI Forex john 07:53 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Early in Europe markets logically appear to be taking a modest risk-off
posture into the weekend. There are ample geopolitical reasons to take
a reduced profile. The week ahead features an FOMC meeting and
the July monthly NFP report. The EURUSD is currently steady.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are steady, and remain well below levels from early last
week
.Yields
on the European
periphery are mixed. .EZ 10-yr 1.18%, 0bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.60% -1bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend..
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.51%, 0bp. The
psychological pivot is2.50% .
- Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe
are lower. U.S. share futures are down.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
Amman Amman 05:43 GMT July 25, 2014
High Frequency Trading: Clear and Present Danger?
Reply
As we look back on 2013, it has certainly been a year of increasing scrutiny and criticism of capital markets trading participants. One particular area of focus is so-called �High Frequency Trading� (HFT), the practice of automated trading algorithms rapidly taking market positions. HFT is seen by many as a major cause of market crashes and volatility. Most notably, many believe the automated withdrawal of liquidity by HFT algorithms accelerated the 2010 flash crash, where the Dow-Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1000 points and then recovered most of the losses in only 30 minutes.
home
Amman Amman 05:37 GMT July 25, 2014
FCA keeps narrow scope in currency-rigging settlement
Reply
NDAQ reported 2Q14 adj. EPS of $0.70 (-3% q/q, +12% y/y) and diluted GAAP EPS of $0.59 (-1% q/q, +13% y/y), on revenues of $523m (-1% q/q, +16% y/y) an adj. OpEx of $308m (-2% q/q, +15% y/y) excluding M&A, extinguishment of debt and special legal expenses. NDAQ reduced OpEx guidance to $1.22b-$1.25b from $1.25b-$1.285b. NDAQ paid $100m of debt and returned to its long-term leverage target; and also repurchased $93m of stock. NDAQ declared a $0.15 dividend per share payable on September 26.
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:55 GMT July 25, 2014
AceTrader Jul 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD
25 Jul 2014 02:43GMT
GBP/USD - ... Cable gains respite in subdued Asian trading after tanking to a 4-week trough of 1.6967 on Thur as a tepid 0.1% m/m growth in Jun retails sales (vs forecast of 03% increase) triggered broad-based selling of sterling vs usd n eur.
As retail sales account for just under 6% of U.K. economic output, market is keenly awaiting the release of the 1st reading of Britain's Q2 GDP. Street forecast is looking for a q/q growth of 0.8% & an annual expansion of 3.1%. If actual quarterly figure disappoints, then recent expectation of the start of a rate hike near year-end wud be put in the back burner. If the reading is higher than forecast, then one can expect a short-covering rally back twd 1.7085/95.
Until then, offers are noted at 1.7000/10 n more abv, initial bids are reported at 1.6970-60 with more stops touted below 1.6950.
25 Jul 2014 02:21GMT
U.K. Telegraph :
The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2014 from 3.7% to 3.4% in the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, warning that the advanced economies are still being weighed on by high levels of debt.
Ultra-low interest rates around the world are fuelling financial bubbles n pushing investors into overvalued assets, the IMF has warned in a marked shift of policy.
Olivier Blanchard, the IMF?s chief economist, said the fund is now watching financial markets "like a hawk" but said the world economy is still too fragile to withstand the introduction of tighter monetary policy. "The first line of defence should be macro-prudential tools; slowing down the housing market for example. The recovery is not very strong and really needs to be nurtured," he said. The report also said "Global growth could be weaker for longer, monetary policy should thus remain accommodative in all major advanced economies."
Friday will see the release of Japan National CPI, Tokyo CPI, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo current conditions, expectations, business climate, Italy unemployment, UK GDP and U.S. durable goods on Friday.
dc CB 01:37 GMT July 25, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Mtl JP 22:45 GMT
with $193 billion revenue Amazon can not make a profit
+++++++++++++++++++
Two words:
Alibaba IPO
Wait til Jack Ma, the Chinese version of Bezos, sets up here and starts selling Stuff.
Jeff will have the WaPo running Chinese currency manipulation Editorials. :)))))))))
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