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Forex Forum Archive for 07/26/2014

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GVI Forex john 21:59 GMT July 26, 2014
Eurozone 2y vs ECB refi rate
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:

Some have asked me to re-explain this chart

It consists of two elements; interest rates and EURUSD spot.

1) interest rates: forex is all about MONEY. The cost of money is interest rates. higher interest rates increase demand for a given currency and lower interest rates mean reduced demand.

There are two interest rate lines. The blue dashed line is the official ECB administered cost of overnight funds. It does not change frequently. The other blue line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

When it is below the official rate, depositors and lenders are saying that they expect the official rate is going to fall. If the market rate is above the official rate, it means they agree that rates are going to rise.

This chart says that professional traders agree that the ECB is going to reduce rates in the future. falling interest rates are EURUSD negative.

2) EURUSD line. The grey EURUSD line shows the interaction of the EURUSD pair with rises and falls in EUR interest rates. Moves are not always as fast as they once were, but they generally move together. Note the EURUSD has been following interest rates lower, This is how the fundamentals determine forex values.




Montreal Hesham 21:58 GMT July 26, 2014
USD?CAD

Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0639 Target: 1.08 and higher Stop: 1.05

I will add more on dips
___________________________________________________

I closed 1/4 at 1.0735 and the rest at the previously mentioned targets.
I raised the stop loss to be at 1.065.

It is sunny today in Montreal. I will go to the swimming pool

Have a nice week end to all.
______________________________________________________
The second target was achieved on Friday (1/4 of the position)
Now, the target is 1.15 and the s/l is raised to 1.076

I may buy again if the market hits my s/l

GVI Forex john 15:46 GMT July 26, 2014
Hot Items: Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
MONDAY
US Pending Homes
TRY TRY 2-yr
TUESDAY
US CB Consumer Conf
TRY TRY 5-yr
WEDNESDAY
US ADP Jobs
US GDP 1Q14r
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
THURSDAY
DE unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

dc CB 14:27 GMT July 26, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

The Pentagon warned of an “imminent” delivery from Russia of sophisticated and powerful rocket launchers to pro-Russia separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine.


The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United States of conducting a “smear campaign” against Russia with “unsubstantiated public insinuations.” It said the United States had supported “a coup d’etat in Kiev, and then in fact urged the regime toward the brutal massacre of the Russian-speaking population.

Russia, Ukraine trade accusations of cross-border shelling

dc CB 14:10 GMT July 26, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

Resource scarcity, competition to dominate Eurasian energy corridors, are behind Russian militarism and US interference
Dr.Nafeez Ahmed
theguardian.com

Ukraine crisis is about Great Power oil, gas pipeline rivalry

dc CB 13:51 GMT July 26, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

The people of Slavyansk, which is located in the heart of the Yzovka shale gas field, staged numerous protest actions in the past against its development

Countries like the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and France have given up plans to develop shale gas deposits in their territories.

In May 2012, Ukraine’s State Service for Geology and Mineral Resources announced a tender for the right to develop the Yuzovka shale gas deposit that was won by British-Dutch Shell.

Burisma, Ukraine’s oil and gas production holdings, also has the right to develop the shale gas fields in the Dnieper-Donetsk basin of Eastern Ukraine.

A son of U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden has recently become a member of Burisma’s board of directors.

Ukrainian army helps installing shale gas production equipment near Slavyansk

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT July 26, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

Rather than backing down ... according to some David Herszenhorn and Peter Baker. Right, they write for New York Times.

GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT July 26, 2014
FOMC and Monthly Jobs Due: Outlook- July 27, 2014
Reply   


Fed Policy Path is Set
It hard to believe that we are back to focusing on another Fed meeting this week. There is always the possibility of a surprise but it will take time before the Fed can even consider raising short term interest rates and we see no reason why the central bank should not be able to meet its scheduled October end to its asset purchase program.

Full Outlook

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:18 GMT July 26, 2014
Knowledge is Power
Reply   
We posted some great articles this past week with unique insights you might not find elsewhere. Remember, knowledge is power!.

- FOMC and Monthly Jobs Due - Outlook - July 27, 2014
- Last Gasp Reversal: Another Secret Forex Trading Pattern Revealed
- EXCLUSIVE: If You Trade or Plan to Trade the GBP, You Need This Indicator
- Why the EURUSD Will Move Lower
- EXCLUSIVE: There is No Free Lunch, 400% Forex Broker Bonus Offer

CLICK to READ NOW - Knowledge is Power

GVI Forex 01:25 GMT July 26, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War
Reply   
KIEV, Ukraine — Rather than backing down after last week’s downing of a civilian passenger jet, Russia appears to be intervening more aggressively in the war in eastern Ukraine in what American and Ukrainian officials call a dangerous escalation that will almost certainly force more robust retaliation from the United States and Europe.

Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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