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Forex Forum Archive for 07/27/2014

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Mtl JP 23:54 GMT July 27, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

I am pretty sure the net short euro (not just long reduction but also short buildup) is at , if not, near 52 week high. which may or not mean anything, but odds are growing of some unwind: always on the look out for lopsided positionning

dc CB 22:52 GMT July 27, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

they were taken by Mr. Magoo

Mtl JP 22:39 GMT July 27, 2014
Russia Steps Up Help for Rebels in Ukraine War

dc CB / even the Washingtonpost poohpohs them as "grainy photographs" ...

dc CB 21:49 GMT July 27, 2014
The Times, they are a changin'

Yes, we can � bring back talk of hope and change.

Obama�s new approach: Keep �hope and change� alive

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:48 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds

This is our

July Newsletter

dc CB 16:31 GMT July 27, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

Mtl JP 22:21 GMT July 25, 2014 -
Commitment of Traders Report
john 19:44 that short euro build looks massive

makes you wonder, since this is the last week in July and August is Vacation time for Europe and the US, whether Gammy Yellen's crew will put something in the statement that triggers a "Take Profits and head to the yacht and the beach" move.

COT with "sides" on the trade

COT EC futures

dc CB 16:22 GMT July 27, 2014
The Times, they are a chnagin'

Mark Knoller ✔ @markknoller

Pres Obama played about 5 hrs of golf at Congressional and then returned to the WH.
7:35 PM - 26 Jul 2014

(CBS News White House Correspondent. Washington, D.C..)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:20 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds

You can't use past history as central banks have rewritten the book.

Read my last newsletter for what to watch out for.

dc CB 16:19 GMT July 27, 2014
The Times, they are a changin'
Repeal Prohibition, Again

The federal government should repeal the ban on marijuana.

We reached that conclusion after a great deal of discussion among the members of The Times�s Editorial Board, inspired by a rapidly growing movement among the states to reform marijuana laws.


sofia kaprikorn 14:57 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds

GVI Forex john

If I may ask when it becomes obvious for the market that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to tighten?

Asking you to share your view based on the experience you have from the previous tightening cycles. TIA.

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds

JP- You can never know if the markets have it "right". That is why we focus on "High Impact" data releases. They are high impact releases because they can CHANGE the outlook for monetary policy. By correctly anticipating how the OUTLOOK for policy is going to be impacted by a data event, you can get a jump on the markets. this is what trading on the "fundamentals" is all about. Personally, I think you cannot trade on the fundamentals alone. The technicals are indispensable for proper trade execution once you figure out how you want to position yourself.

sofia kaprikorn 14:18 GMT July 27, 2014
Eurozone 2y vs ECB refi rate

GVI john

Great chart reg. EUR/USD vs. 2Y EZ rate - a picture is worth a thousand words.

GVI Forex Blog 14:15 GMT July 27, 2014
Markets setting up for Fed Decision and U.S. Employment data.
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home Sales

Monday sees the U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate and Pending Homes Sales. These data will set the stage for an exceptionally full week of high impact news releases..

Markets setting up for Fed Decision and U.S. Employment data.

Mtl JP 14:07 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds

john how do we know when the players have it all fully priced in, or more importantly not, and therefor spot a potential trade opportunity as a "catch up" trade ?

nw kw 13:57 GMT July 27, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

bond cot has open interest spike see if it reverses looks crowded

GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT July 27, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

July 27, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, July 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt SVC PMI, Pending Home Sales

  • Far East: JP- Unemployment, Retail Sales.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: US- flash Markit Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales, 2-yr Auction.

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT July 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

GVI Forex john 11:13 GMT July 27, 2014
U.S. 2Y vs. Fed Funds
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART:

Here is a further explanation of the chart below for the current state of the U.S, money markets ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. I have not included a currency pair.

The cost of money is interest rates. higher interest rates increase demand for a given currency and lower interest rates mean reduced demand.

There are two interest rate lines. The RED dashed line is the official Fed administered cost of overnight funds (Fed Funds). It does not change frequently. The other RED line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

When it is below the official rate, depositors and lenders are saying that they expect the official rate is going to fall. If the market rate is above the official rate, it means they agree that oficial rates are going to rise.

This chart says that professional traders agree that the FED is going to increase rates sometime in the near future. Rising interest rates should be EURUSD positive.

So you can see that rational traders have ALREADY tightened monetary policy FOR the Fed. The cost of money in the two year time frame is already higher. A Fed rate hike now would only confirm what the markets already have discounted. This is how the wholesale markets for money have always operated. They MUST operate this way if the institutions are going to survive.


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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