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Forex Forum Archive for 07/29/2014

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dc CB 23:43 GMT July 29, 2014
J'accuse; J'amuse
Reply   
via ZH. Obama and Netanyahu on the phone.

The transcript, as shown by the Times of Israel was as follows:

The following is an English translation of the Hebrew account of the talk given in the report:

Barack Obama: I demand that Israel agrees to an immediate, unilateral ceasefire and halt all offensive activities, in particular airstrikes.

"Shocked" White House Slams "Fabrication" After Israel TV Leaks Damning Transcript Of Obama-Netanyahu Phone Call

Livingston nh 23:40 GMT July 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

Better if it was 5 years instead of weeks

dc CB 23:39 GMT July 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

You forgot an important US Event for Friday Aug 1

The US Congress goes on vacation for 5 (FIVE) WEEKS.



Livingston nh 23:39 GMT July 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

JP - in an earlier life I used ESOPs to allow closely held corp clients to convert profit sharing (retirement plans) funds into buyouts - these were tax subsidized job preservation programs -- big corps that could have utilized these had no incentive to do so - jobs went elsewhere

Congressional unintentional consequences -- always happens with tax provisions (mortgage interest deductions, OBAMACARE subsidy)

Mtl JP 23:31 GMT July 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

talking of meatballs...

United States Employee Ownership Bank Act - by Bernie Sanders
.. to provide “loan guarantees, direct loans, and technical assistance to employees to buy their own companies. . .”
to “preserve and increase employment in the United States”
to preserve and expand jobs in the United States through Employee Stock Ownership Plans and worker-owned cooperatives
-
do I hear Vlad chuckle ?

Livingston nh 22:59 GMT July 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

The meatballs at the Fed are unlikely to see improvement in the US economy -- the CRISIS is still upon us // regardless of Q2 figs the TRUE BELIEVERS will whine about the myth of Great Financial Crisis -- get over it

This is what happens when you have government expertise running ANYTHING (see Soviet Union circa 1985)

sd sf 22:43 GMT July 29, 2014
Bots
Reply   
GBP
as you will remember they got stopped quite a few times around 1.7095/1.7125 so they didn't hold longer term shorts on the move down to here

but what they are doing today is looking to sell 50 52 58
and buy 18 12 06 + 05

Eur
obviously a different type of move where they were able to build more of a position and trade around it.

this morning they are buying back shorts @8/9 and bid for more 97/98/99

you can see the reason why based on daily ranges - they just aren't large enough to stop them from taking profit every 40-50 points

AUDNZD

this one is the real mover in the automated FX Space with 1.1050 last line of defence before 1.1150-1.12

I actually don't have a position in this at this time - but I would put on a small manual long looking for a decent up move to clear out all the stale shorts.

eurcad/gbpcad - actually seen bids this morning rather than any profit taking from the lower buying .. continuation move I suppose is on the cards.

Looking at my book - the difference must come shortly where the daily ranges expand so the USD can rally some more .. and the automated strategies don't just t/p on every small move.... if we don't see that and we stay small ball then the USD rally will just end.

GVI Forex john 22:40 GMT July 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News



July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, ADP Private Jobs, GDP, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, 7-yr Auction, Fed Decision.


GVI Forex Blog 21:43 GMT July 29, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
US dollar strength and lower global interest rates were notable features overnight. Expectations the US central bank will slightly upgrade its economic outlook tomorrow, plus EU sanctions on Russia, appeared to be the main factors at play overnight. Equities were mixed, the Eurostoxx 50 closing up 0.6% but the S&P500 is currently down 0.4%.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 21:23 GMT July 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

WEDNESDAY
US ADP Jobs
US GDP 2Q14prelim
TRY TRY 7-yr
FRB Fed Rates
THURSDAY
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

Livingston nh 21:20 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

jp - tomorrow a break above 92 locks in the rally

Mtl JP 21:08 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

technically usdcad stayed above its 200dma gv chartpoint.
-
Bottom Line
It is now incumbent upon the (Fibonacci) retracement theory to prove itself next.

GVI Forex john 20:50 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

dc CB 20:31 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

it's all aTwitter.

4% GDP, up from -2.9% almost a 7% rise...all based on Tweets and Adverts.

Yes that will be the headline tom morning. :))))))

Livingston nh 20:05 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

NOMINAL GDP - 4.4% // this is the key fig not some pointy head elite preferred number

If nominal is sub 4% there may be a real problem

Mtl JP 20:01 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

CB maybe the FED collective will spin things is such a way as to keep risk diluted, coz in a unified view lies both strength and vulnerability

GDP views range from recovery to—gasp!—recession - CNBC

a dispertion and divergence of views by the plebs is a good thing for the overlords

Livingston nh 19:57 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

CB - FOMC may be lucky to keep status quo - any lovey dovey talk in statement (now a short story length rather than two simple paragraphs) risks a dissent or two // the looney toon BUBBLE guys need to get discredited before the bubble actually shows up

london red 19:56 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

stocks...with gdp up before the open last chance to sell is now. im shooting for 2.5%. but will be a dip buyer of the greenback on any fallout on this figure as market has bit between its teeth and pre fomc wont let up for long.

dc CB 19:49 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

Gammy and Group will have no choice tomorrow but to tweek the language just enough to hint at not being so devoted to possibly raising rates just a smidge or maybe a tad sometime in the next year or two.

'cause Jeeeeesuuuusssss the StoX Market is Crashing right before out eyes...Oh the humanity.

GVI Forex john 19:46 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:45 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

Today the 2:15 Express left the station right on time.
It just ran the wrong way.

Livingston nh 19:41 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

red - CAD JPY et al are breaking LT trendlines/Avgs --- when the LT support/Resistance collapses there is usually a test so EUR could go back towards 1.35 // Cable may be next - LT is still favorable (no avgs broken) but Gilts are now back below double digit Treasury spreads and could go negative like early Spring

Some Vol, some Vol, my kingdom for some vol

Mtl JP 19:40 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

from another Top Fed Watcher

Ron Paul: Stocks are in a bubble and will crash - on CNBC

"...The market has to correct, and who's going to call it a crash until it happens? We're in for a major correction, I think. I think we're very, very vulnerable," he said. "When it's artificial, it's distorted, it's vulnerable, and it's just looking for the correction."...

dc CB 19:38 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak



WilliamBanzai7

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Paris ib 19:26 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

"Russians have long been able to forgive domestic woes if an outside enemy is lurking."

hhahahahhahahahahahahah.... whereas Americans, no!! They have access to the real, absolute truth....

Let's make a list: Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden, Putin..... who's next?

london red 19:23 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

nh, v interesting. i referred to these monthlies last week, not as a reason to buy but to just be wary. 50 month is just below the figure so it does seem we are at an infexion point. with the end of month fast approaching, its possible we will be 133xx by end thursday. but you'd look for a pullback then since its a new month and retracement theory applies 99% of time, the 1% is a major unexpected market moving event. in which case the following monthly bar is as big or bigger than the previous and retracement is minimal. so you'd be looking at 130-131 august low. as for major event? fed? russia? if you dont get this its quite possible 135xx trades august.

Livingston nh 19:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

My wife just suggested afternoon soap operas affect his timing

Mtl JP 18:55 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

maybe damage control ?

Putin’s anti-American rhetoric now persuades his harshest critics

Livingston nh 18:52 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

John - my greater concern would be "when is he going to leave" (The Man Who Came To Dinner)

GVI Forex john 18:50 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

It must be fun having him to dinner. You would never know when he is going to show up!

GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak

Obama comments delayed until 20:10 GMT. So what is new here?

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr up in price => yield down => Gold uP in price
lets say 10-yr the leading leg

GVI Forex john 18:29 GMT July 29, 2014
Obama to Speak
Reply   
at around 18:50 GMT. Hearing its on EU sanctions against Russia.

GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.464% -2bp after strong 5-yr auction yields are back down. Credit markets have had a deflationary feel today. It can't be the Fed decision tomorrow can it?

GVI Forex Blog 18:16 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

The Wednesday focus is the ADP Private Payrolls Survey. The perennials problem is that the ADP data are not a reliable predictor of NFP. A steady Fed Policy Decision is expected as well.

Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

Mtl JP 18:14 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



nh 17:54 - thx 4 that.
I ll be happy to see the red line fib (see pic) hit first if/when 1.34 breaks down

Livingston nh 17:54 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

wkly 144 EMA (1.3419) has been broken for first time since Ben's penguinesque cold feet "NEVER Mind" taper last September - a close here or below this week opens a lot of white space until 1.28// the 1.34 lvl is just an option number - all the short term support is gone and now wkly may be gone
Further out the 21Month sma is 1.3401 (still below 55 mthly EMA @22) so there is a decent chance the monthly could also break by Thursday

dc CB 17:27 GMT July 29, 2014
Downtime reading.
Reply   
lawyers for three traders filed a Second Amended Complaint in Federal Court against Duffy, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade and other individuals involved in leadership roles at the CME Group.

The conduct alleged in the lawsuit, backed by very specific examples, reads more like an organized crime rap sheet than the conduct of what is thought by the public to be a highly regulated futures exchange in the U.S.

Lawsuit Stunner: Half of Futures Trades in Chicago Are Illegal Wash Trades

london red 17:26 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

and its what'll keep the rallies small until done.

GVI Forex john 17:20 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

red- yes you are correct.

Mtl JP 17:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ya solid... but for who ? 1.72% / yr is an insult but as long as players are eager and willing...

london red 17:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

barrier, john, at 134.

dc CB 17:08 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Wowie Zowie the 5 year auction

Indirect: 16,851,294,000
of the $34billion
Directs: less than $10
The PD's less than $10bln

1.69%

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

5-yr 1.72% bid-to-cover 2.81 vs 2.74.

solid auction.

GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Previously on a day like today. the 1.3400 line would have been a stop magnet. The big players would have run stop through that price to knock them all out. I guess the market has changed are those big player gone now, or is there an "invisible hand". holding prices at big figures to slow the descent of the EURUSD.

Thoughts?

london red 16:50 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

yes close abv 200 day bullish then a dip on US gdp would be nice 10780/10810 and then you need the fed to be brave. following day iffy canadian gdp could see this at 10940 by end of week. fed is the kink here though, lets see if they step up.

Mtl JP 16:48 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

interesting
red 16:33 / market needs fed to step up
Livingston nh 12:29 / time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention

Mtl JP 16:41 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points



In case usdcad 200dma holds , some potential target considerations

GVI Forex john 16:36 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Europe markets went into a "risk-off" posture early and that set the stage early in the U.S. Sentiment changed mid-morning in New York trading when the latest Consumer Confidence reading was much stronger than expected.   The EURUSD is lower at 1.3408, -30 pips.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are ending lower and some yields are at multi-century lows. Yields on the European periphery are  mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.12%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.55%  -3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly higher at their closes. . U.S. share futures are turning positive.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


dc CB 16:35 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

need to wait and see how it reacts to Gammy.
Usual is lower, but after the last meeting it jammed higher.

as I wrote when Yellen was doing the Humphry Hawkins, don't usually trade this, except for the "guareeteeeeeeed" downs:

1) whenever the Chair speaks before Congress.
2) whenever the FMOC meets.

london red 16:33 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

took some time to break but now that they have, 9050 on swissy will be a marker for tomorrow. if held on a closing basis then dollar still up. fomc boxed into a corner must deliver goods or dollar bust vs the stronger majors. more on fomc tomorrow but market needs fed to step up as could be start of interesting phase for dollar.

Mtl JP 16:25 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

dc CB 16:15 at what price dip u gonna buy ?

Mtl JP 16:17 GMT July 29, 2014
Global Markets News

July 29, 2014, J.P. Morgan cutting hundreds of tech-support jobs
-
maybe not a good thing... in case Vlad/Chinese decide to play cyber hanki-panki
you gotta wonder if jpm is in trouble or something
-

dc CB 16:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise



No suprise here on the first day of the FMOC

Kazan 16:07 GMT July 29, 2014
FX Spot Volumes
Reply   
Hello guys!
Can anybody know, Reuters Eikon for 1700 chf per month is only platform for have a look to FX Volumes (not number of ticks)

Is it alternative for retails trader?

Thank you before hands, Anthony

SaaR KaL 15:59 GMT July 29, 2014
Day's Trades

What Ever you do
Do not Listen to him

Never Listen to this Man

Paris ib 15:48 GMT July 29, 2014
Sanctions

Ruling party lawmakers propose altering Russian legislation to allow for automatic sanctions against foreign countries that the government includes on a special list of ‘aggressor nations’.....

Russia's response

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

there are two big components to the Daily Trading Outlook:
1) estimated directional price movement (i.e magnitude)
and
2) choosing the right pony(s) - some gallop some are lame

for that gv's chart-points are a decent useful tool.
not all the time, but often enough

GVI Forex 15:38 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

1.0839 = 200 day mva

G-V FX Chart Points

Paris ib 15:37 GMT July 29, 2014
Sanctions

Europeans have no real interest in placing sanctions on Russia - which would ultimately hurt European business. So this is just appeasing the United States.

GVI Forex Blog 15:32 GMT July 29, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Trading has been volatile this morning as participants react to a variety of positive and negative earnings reports out of major names, the EU sanctions on Russia, trouble for Portugal's BES and the very good US confidence data.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Volatility Returns thanks to Earnings, Geopolitics

Mtl JP 15:30 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

usdcad 200dma currently in play

Dillon AL 15:25 GMT July 29, 2014
Sanctions

Cos they have to run it by Putin first to make sure he won't turn off the Gas tap especially the one going to Germany whose dependency is 1/3rd more in equivalent terms than the rest of the EU

Mtl JP 15:17 GMT July 29, 2014
Sanctions

earlier the sanctioneers said they would publish names on Wednesday - tomorrow. dono really why the secretive trickle delays in this day n age of spying

GVI Forex 15:09 GMT July 29, 2014
Sanctions
Reply   
10:45 (RU) EU said to have formally agreed to next round of sanctions on Russia - financial press
- Said to have reached agreement on the composition of the new package of sanctions that include: oil sector, dual use goods, defense, sensitive technology.
- To be reviewed after three months.
- To publish a list of entities affected.

- Source TradeTheNews.com

tokyo ginko 15:03 GMT July 29, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

sold 50% nikkei @ 15690...let the other half run till 16250

GVI Forex Blog 15:02 GMT July 29, 2014 Reply   
July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 30, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT July 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News
Reply   


July 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, July 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, ADP Private Jobs, GDP, Factory Orders, Weekly Crude, 7-yr Auction, Fed Decision.


Mtl JP 14:36 GMT July 29, 2014
Sara “The world has changed,” Stevens
Reply   
amazing predictive power of that young lass:

U.S. homeownership at 18-year low in second quarter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Homeownership in the United States fell again in the second quarter to the lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, suggesting many Americans are becoming renters. The seasonally adjusted homeownership rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 64.8% from 65.0% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. .. Many analysts say the housing sector will remain weak until first-time buyers return to the market.
-
The many analysts still seem to not get that The world has changed.

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

So the employment readings improved in July. However the percentage saying jobs are plentiful are still very low at 15.9%

GVI Forex john 14:29 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

from Conference Board Press Release:

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in July. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged down to 22.7 percent from 23.4 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 22.7 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 15.9 percent from 14.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” remained unchanged at 30.7 percent.

GVI Forex john 14:24 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

I don't find the sentiment surveys PMIs etc to have a lot of predictive power. I find that they do give a decent representation of current conditions only.

GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

post data U.S. 10-yr 2.476%

Mtl JP 14:17 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

bodes well for Friday's NFP
300-400K added new jobs ?

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much stronger than expected.





GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

Much stronger than expected. Here is one of Jay's surprises?

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT July 29, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
90.9 vs. 85.5 exp. vs. 85.2 prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer




Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:52 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

usdcad chart points
Res 3 1.0839
Res 2 1.0829
Res 1 1.0816
Pivot 1.0806
bias is UP while above the Pivot
-
200 day 1.0839, currently resistance.
Bottom Line:
Should it give on closing basis we might see a power move uP

SaaR KaL 13:49 GMT July 29, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD from 1.3410 to 1.3455 next day to possible 1.3478

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

all those events (FOMC, GDP, NFP) are for later in the week
-
lets see player reaction to sentiment of the us consumer first, unlikely to cause a storm day unless it prints way outside of estimate

note:
One-third of Americans are drowning in debt

More than one-third of Americans had debt in collections in 2013, according to a new study by the Urban Institute, which analyzed credit reporting data for more than 7 million consumers. The report is based on data from Transunion, one of the three major credit reporting agencies.

In order to be released to debt collectors, unpaid balances have to be more than 180 days past due. Of the 35% of Americans with non-mortgage debt in collections, the average outstanding debt balance was $5,200, according to the report. .../..

(the potentially good news part is that Debt Collectors are busier than ever so maybe their economic activity will boost the GDP reading)

GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Although I feel the Conference Board Survey is an important report, I doubt it will be a market mover either way.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:28 GMT July 29, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise
Reply   
JP ( and others) _ I spell it out in my latest article

Watch Out for a Surprise

Mtl JP 13:22 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

what events r u talking about to make a "storm" day ?

only event on deck that has some potential to elicit player reaction is the us consumer confidence at the top of the hour
expected to print 85.5 vs previous 85.2

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Earlier posted video outlook



Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video Update

Calm before the event filled storm day. My bias working out within this tight range.

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Lets see if EURUSD will find support at 1.3400.
If not we could fall another step to just above 1.3300. This has been a step trade downward.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

Support is around 1.3400, back above 1.3420-25 would be needed to slow the risk.

FWIW, the bias expressed in my videos is working nicely (note, I have been offering free access to them)

GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD now ready to give way?

Crude looking heavy.

GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

No idea. Im looking for something new.

Mtl JP 13:01 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

john 12:56 it is player reaction to the US neocons wanting war

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT July 29, 2014
May 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20
Reply   



ALERT
+9.30% vs. +9.80% exp. vs. +10.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT July 29, 2014
Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday

nh your call for "time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention" is revolutionary.

you do know how overlords view revolutionaries, ya ?

GVI Forex john 12:56 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr now 2.455% -2.5bp. Not sure what's going on??

London Chris 12:53 GMT July 29, 2014
Is anyone trading?

This is turning into a good trading day but the fall in bond yields is what does not add up. Maybe it is just curve flattening but I am giving up trying to figure this side out.

Mtl JP 12:52 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

12:33 / maybe there are some shorting opportunities

GVI Forex 12:33 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Risk on with blinders on (note DAX)
'
(RU) Russian Duma reportedly considering legislation branding the US an "aggressor nation," would ban American firms from working in Russia - blogs

- Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 12:31 GMT July 29, 2014
cable
Reply   
Supp at 43 a break targets 09 but unlikely to go far with fed amd gdp tomorrow so better to fade. Res 64 and fig.

Livingston nh 12:29 GMT July 29, 2014
Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday

As usual the Fed bank presidents away from the money centers are the core of a change faction - closer to businesses and regional bankers where ZIRP is a problem, not a cure // Fisher's focus on inflation is being panned as the "boy who cried Wolf" and he is unlikely to make waves w/ a dissent yet -- his problem like many folks who decry "money printing" op by the Fed is that the Twist and the currently fading QE was a "buying money" op - it is not a coincidence that inflation is rising as the Taper continues

Folks have been saying the Fed is addicting the markets to cheap money - my view is the Mr. Market is not the addict but rather the enabler for the FED, the real Addict (see Yellen's constantly shifting excuses for maintaining current policy) -- time for Mr. Market to stage an intervention

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT July 29, 2014
Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday

US Case-Shil does not merit "B" risk weighing
-
not sure what the brainiacs at the FED need two days for unless they are scheming how to bamboozle players with fed-o-babble about how things economic are recovering, heading into friday's NFP

Lets see how confident the consumer is later this morn

GVI Forex john 12:08 GMT July 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

sd sf 11:48 GMT July 29, 2014
Is anyone trading?

when FX goes quiet - I work on Gold / Silver and Oil strategy because there always seems to be more movement in those.

Lack of posting - just means nothing to say - that hasn't already been covered already.

SaaR KaL 11:47 GMT July 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
if want to long EURUSD for more then one month
I suggest you long
from 1.3270 to 1.3150
for tgt 1.42

Mtl JP 11:39 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Risk Off = Dollar rally + widening credit spreads (folks dumping weak creadit) + smart money laying low anticipating - rightly or wrongly - stox correction

GVI Forex john 11:12 GMT July 29, 2014
Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday

We are not expecting much from the Fed tomorrow. The central bank is in the final stages of winding down its asset purchase program. It is scheduled to go to zero after the October FOMC. They want to end this program with no hiccups, so it might be wise not to rock the boat with other issues.

The press is trying to make a story about some possible policy dissent just to come up with a story. Why risk it for no reason?

GVI Forex john 11:03 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

US 10-yr 2.471% -2.0bp
DE 10-yr 2.125% -2.5bp

I'm not completely sure why markets are in this risk-off posture today? Thoughts??

Mtl JP 10:57 GMT July 29, 2014
Is anyone trading?



what dollar bears ?

London Chris 10:45 GMT July 29, 2014
Is anyone trading?

Maybe the quiet is also because the many usd bears have gone into hibernation.

GVI Forex john 10:12 GMT July 29, 2014
Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday
Reply   

I have included a chart to illustrate its current state of mind. By way of explanation There are two interest rate lines. The RED dashed line is the official Fed administered cost of overnight funds (Fed Funds). It does not change frequently. The other RED line is the free market cost of funds for two years. The market two year rate amounts to a forecast for the official administered rate for the next two years.

Traders view of the U.S. money markets heading into the FOMC decision on Wednesday

GVI Forex john 09:54 GMT July 29, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR narrowly higher, but up sharply vs. the NZD. Spot to 20-day averages remain negative.




GVI Forex Blog 09:51 GMT July 29, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
This is a good summary of the current focus

* New Zealand dollar slips after Fonterra cuts payout forecast

* Dollar index holds near six-month peak, euro eight-month trough



* Fed, U.S. GDP & payrolls key tests for markets this week * Euro zone inflation and China PMI also in focus

FOREX-Kiwi dips on dairy worries, dollar holding strong

GVI Forex Blog 09:49 GMT July 29, 2014 Reply   
German 10-year Bund yield hit a record low below 1.12% in the session. Dealers noted that safe-haven flows and month-end extension s contributed to price action. Fresh jitters emerged over Portuguese entity Banco Espirito Santo. EU ministers meet to discuss the next phase of Russian sanctions

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Safe-haven plays and month-end extension help push German 10-year Bund yield to record low level

London Chris 09:17 GMT July 29, 2014
Is anyone trading?
Reply   
My question is whether anyone is trading or are we all waiting for this event week to start" Raise your hand if you traded today.

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:54 GMT July 29, 2014
AceTrader Jul 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

29 Jul 2014 05:35GMT

USD/JPY - .... The pair flirts with 102.00 level ahead of European open after penetrating Fri's 2-week high of 101.94 as intra-day gain in the Nikkei to a fresh 6-month peak of 15632 triggered broad-based selling of yen. Present dlr's across-the-board strength vs G7 currencies also provides further sup to the dlr to head higher.

At present, offers at 101.95/05 are being absorbed, some stops are touted above there, however, more selling interest is noted at 102.25/35 which is likely to cap intra-day gain. For now, buying dlr on dips is still favoured n bids have been raised to 101.85/75 with stops below 101.60.

GVI Forex Blog 08:51 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Conference Board Survey

Today, the top item is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey. Yesterday, the U.S. flash Markit Service PMI estimate came in virtually flat relative to the June reading.It remained at a high level.

Risk-Off Trade as The Markets set up for the Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday

GVI Forex john 08:41 GMT July 29, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Europe markets are in a "risk-off" posture early Tuesday as a slew of high impact data due in the second half of this week. German 10-yr bund yields have made new record lows.  The EURUSD is steady at 1.3436.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower and remain well below recent levels. Yields on the European periphery are down. EZ 10-yr 1.13%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%,  -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


UK Rob 08:40 GMT July 29, 2014
NZD
Reply   
NZD is the loser today with tight ranges for the others. Get ready for movement starting tomorrow.

London London 07:29 GMT July 29, 2014

Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1307.40 Target: 1301.90 Stop: 1308

Visit us for mor signal

forex trading

Syd 05:27 GMT July 29, 2014
RBA may be forced to cut rate further: Goldman Sachs Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark
Reply   
The Reserve Bank may be forced to cut the official cash rate before the end of the year to beat back of a wall of foreign money that has driven the Australian dollar higher, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s bond expert Phil Moffitt.
Moffitt, a 30 year veteran of the bond market and one of Goldman’s most senior Australian partners was speaking at the sidelines of the $935 billion asset managers’ client conference in Sydney.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has a short position in US bonds on an expectation that a US rate rise is coming sooner than the market is expecting.

GVI Forex Blog 05:24 GMT July 29, 2014 Reply   
rate since June 1992) V 1.09E; Labor Force Participation Rate m/m: 59.9% v 59.9% prior - (JP) JAPAN JUN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.8%E; RETAIL TRADE Y/Y: -0.6% V -0.5%E (3rd consecutive decline) - (JP

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan unemployment rate rises despite multiyear high in job availability - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:50 GMT July 29, 2014
AceTrader Jul 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

29 Jul 2014 01:33GMT

Statement from BoJ's broad member Koji Ishida, quote:
'Japan's economy continues to recover moderately;
exports continue to move sideways, lacking momentum;
structural factors, such as shift of Japan firms' production overseas, may be partly behind soft exports;
capex expected to increase moderately as a trend;
next month's Q2 GDP data likely to show negative growth but economy's positive momentum seen intact;
effect of April sales tax hike likely to subside gradually;
labour market conditions likely hold key to whether household spending will remain firm;
want to scrutinise whether companies increasingly translate costs to consumers through higher prices;
environment surrounding exports to gradually improve as global growth pick up, tough uncertainty remains;
QQE exerting intended effects on markets, Japan's 10-year JGB yield remains at very low levels;
inappropriate to judge if BoJ's target by looking at core CPI alone, must take into account other data too to guage overall price trend.'


Data to be released on Tuesday:

Japan unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia HIA home sales, Germany import prices, U.S. Redbook retail sales and consumer confidence.

nw kw 02:33 GMT July 29, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

S&P Tuesday reaffirms Australia's AAA sovereign rating and maintains a stable outlook. But it has concerns about external debt. The banking system, in particular, has a lot of external debt and relies heavily on the continued backing of foreign investors, S&P says. "We could lower the ratings if external imbalances were to grow significantly more than we currently expect--either because the terms of trade deteriorate quickly and markedly or the banking sector's cost of external funding increases sharply," it says. ([email protected])

NY JM 01:15 GMT July 29, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Looks like one more day biding time until a barrage of key events for the rest of the week.

Market will stay bearish as long as below 1.3450-55

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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