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Forex Forum Archive for 07/30/2014

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Mtl JP 23:36 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

dc CB 19:08 / payback

GVI Forex Blog 20:53 GMT July 30, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
The US dollar was boosted by strong US data but later squashed by the FOMC. GDP easily beat estimates, causing US interest rates to rise and US equities to fall in response. However the moves were later reversed when the FOMC's stance failed to shift to a more hawkish one, markets noting rates will remain low for a "considerable time" after QE ends. The S&P500 is currently unchanged.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT July 30, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY
DE Retail Sales
DE Unemployment
EZ flash  HICP (CPI)  yy
CA GDP mm
US Initial Claims
US Chicago PMI
FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

dc CB 20:38 GMT July 30, 2014
STOCKS



This is what's scaring the market ---(Not another Pic of Gammy)

HY Corp debt has been "financing" all the stock buybacks that have made earnings look so great...less shares = better earnings per share.

The debt has not been used for CapEx.

This will have to be rolled eventually.

london red 20:05 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

agree nh, markets might have moved a long way come september, at which point it will be impossible for fed to not completely cast off the dovishness. 6 months from september brings us march, which is too early for a rate rise, but i think they could use the september meeting to prepare the market for a change in tone in one of the following meeting which could be 6 months away from a hike at that point.
for tomorrow, fomc not given quite enough for me. id look for some usd softness with the intent to buy dip. 6943/50 cable 9350-60 aussie (stop over 85) loonie 10835-60 dependant on gdp but any dip likely to be pounced upon by money looking to long usd - its too early for hero contrarians even on a stronger print.
if we dont get the usd retracement tomorrow, it means we risk another good nfp on friday with a brief spike higher in usd and yields and then slow profit take all afternoon. we also have month end and all that that entails particularly retracement theory.

Mtl JP 20:04 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

re "promoted" is sarcastic, ya ?

Livingston nh 19:49 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

jp- before he was promoted out of the Fed Miller lost control of the FOMC // one potentially serious difference from other tightenings is that long rates tended to drop while short rates moved up BUT I can't see that happening this time

GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT July 30, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 19:43 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

nh u think janet would peacefully let herself be parked at the treasury where she could do only less harm ?

Livingston nh 19:35 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Two more jobs reports by next FOMC meeting -- Friday's unemployment rate can drop to 5.9% -- y/y inflation is going to rise in Q3 as last Summer's CPI Jul 0.0, Aug 0.1 and Sep 0.1 drop out, Q4 was negative: Oct - 0.3, Nov -0.2 and Dec 0.0 (1st half 2014 CPI annual rate was 4.4%) - you can do the math w/ your plug-in values of choice// Plosser will likely be joined by Dallas' Fisher in September

20 years ago unemployment was 6.4% when Fed hiked in winter from 3% - July Unemployment report was 6.1% and Fed Funds were 4.5%

Markets are showing signs of "credibility challenge" -- if NFP over 200k and rate 6% or lower Yellen may start to get the G. Wm. Miller treatment

GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.556%

GVI Forex john 19:27 GMT July 30, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Close...



PAR 19:27 GMT July 30, 2014
STOCKS

Are we still allowed to buy RSX or does it fall under the sanctions against Russia ?

PAR 19:26 GMT July 30, 2014
STOCKS
Reply   
Looks like US equities will close in the green as did Russian stock market .

Mtl JP 19:13 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

phleezzz CB ... little consideration
some folks have 24" monitors

PAR 19:11 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

QE and zero interest rates are no tool to adress unemployment and Yellen knows that very well .

dc CB 19:08 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

:))))

scarey sheit isn't it. imagine sitting at the table arguing with that.

by the way that's directly from the NYT's art.

Mtl JP 19:05 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

by gawd dc CB 18:54... could you not have included some warning with that ?!

GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Fed agenda is

#1 to get out from under the Asset purchase program by the October FOMC without incident.

#2 improve the UNDERLYING employment situation, which remains a lot worse than the headline figures suggest. One aid to employment could be housing which remains particularly weak

This is the reality. plan your trading accordingly. Its going to take a long while to get the U.S. back on itS historical growth path. In other words DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH WAITING...

Mtl JP 19:02 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

so I finally clicked the link to FOMC's statement, only to note they still peddle the idea of "statutory mandate ... to foster maximum employment and price stability" and still contrasting with Janet's "The mandate of the Federal Reserve is to serve all the American people, and too many Americans still can't find a job and worry how they will pay their bills and provide for their families. The Federal Reserve can help, if it does its job effectively. We can help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to work hard and build a better life. We can ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy. We can and must safeguard the financial system." that she claimed on October 9, 2013
I do wonder ... about who, besides the inflowing folks across the southern border, wants to "work hard".

dc CB 19:00 GMT July 30, 2014
Finally a Person Fined
Reply   
The penalty handed down by Judge Jed S. Rakoff of the Federal District Court in Manhattan on Wednesday comes after a jury in October found Bank of America liable for selling the questionable loans to the government-sponsored entities in the run-up to the financial crisis.

The jury also found a top manager at Bank of America’s Countrywide Financial unit liable for the sale of the loans, which were originated as part of a program nicknamed the “hustle,” which linked bonuses to how fast bankers could originate loans.

The judge also fined the former executive, Rebecca S. Mairone, $1 million, for her role in the scheme.

Bank of America Ordered to Pay Nearly $1.3 Billion in Mortgage Case

PAR 18:55 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

For Yellen the glas is Always half empty . She has an hidden agenda .

GVI Forex Blog 18:54 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Data Releases Do Not Disappoint. U.S. GDP Set the Tone Active Calendar Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI

A steady Fed Policy Decision was as expected. The markets appeared to be mildly disappointed by the dovish aspects of the statement and focused mostly on this statement. " Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further..."

U.S. Data Releases Do Not Disappoint. U.S. GDP Set the Tone Active Calendar Thursday

dc CB 18:54 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision



The Federal Reserve on Wednesday affirmed its commitment to stimulate the economy in a policy statement that said labor market conditions remained a “significant” distance from good health.

Fed Maintains Monetary Course but Emphasizes Job Weakness

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

at least kool aid drinker Janet refrained form picking on a specific stox sector

GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

EURUSD has worked its way back higher on the less hawkish than expected Fed. I don't see this as a surprise in any way. Labor conditions in the U.S. continue to be poor. Recall last month that a 800K monthly increase in part-time jobs masked a 500K decline in full-time employment. This is underscored by flat wage rates.

There was a report yesterday than no less than 35% of U.S. households are effectively in default on their consumer debt. Why should there be the rush to tighten and make things worse?

Central bankers are all drinking the same kool aid these days and now its all about slack in a given economy and there is plenty of slack in the U.S. if that somehow can be reliably measured.

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

the FED collective must be tone-deaf.

They do not appear to hear Sara Stevens' message that “The world has changed” . They continue to be behind times whining that "housing sector remains slow" and that "there remains significant underutilization of labor resources" all the while letting fly by them job growth areas such as debt collecting from the 77 million delinquent Americans.

The disconnect between the overlords' view of what they think should be and what is in the real world continues.

Mtl JP 18:16 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Gold uP 2&1/2 bux, 10-yr yield down in synch since FOMC statement

GVI Forex john 18:13 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Key focus of the market...

"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable..."

Mtl JP 18:08 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

9-1.. how democratic.
almost like a vote at the North Korean politburo

GVI Forex john 18:07 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Fed remains on track for an October end to QE.

GVI Forex john 18:06 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

10-yr 2.543% vs 2.554% before the statement. Market seems to be reading the statement as less hawkish than hoped for.

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Fed Statement upgrades labor market. but says there remains a considerable amount of slack in the economy.

Press Release Release Date: July 30, 2014

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Vote 9-1 Plosser dossents

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Reply   



NEWS ALERT

Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases: -$10bln to $25.0/mo

RELEASE: Policy Statement




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 17:39 GMT July 30, 2014
June 18 FOMC
Reply   
For Comparison Purposes. this is a key section from the June 18, 2014 FOMC Statement...


"...Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:11 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree USDJPY

USDJPY 103.02 (May 2 high) is key resistance, holding so far

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.556% +7.4bp

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

7-yr 2.250%
bid-to-cover 2.58 vs. 2.44

Mtl JP 17:02 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

10-yr note selling off , at least momentarily

PAR 17:01 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/dd2ec158-023d-11e4-ab5b-00144feab7de.html#ixzz38yJzex8m



July 4, 2014 11:58 am

Has GDP outgrown its use?

David PillingBy David PillingAuthor alerts

Governments and the media obsess about it while statisticians endlessly fiddle – but what is the real point of GDP and can it ever be accurately measured?


What do the price of hair-salon services in Beijing and sexual services in London have in common? The answer is that, depending on how you measure them – or indeed whether you measure them at all – the size of the Chinese and British economies will expand or contract like an accordion.




GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:56 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Equities coming off lows, perhaps betting on a dovish FOMC

Look for USD bids lying in wait (IMHO)

Mtl JP 16:31 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

the Inventor Of Gross National Product Measure: Simon Kuznets, Hon ’56, Hon ’76, Professor .."understanding of national economies became virtually unsurpassed as his new economic concepts were explored, debated, and implemented. In fact, he later tried to show the U.S. Commerce Department that the GDP isn’t always an authentic measure of a society’s well-being, sometimes upsetting opponents to his views and theories."...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:25 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Note how sensitive JPY is to moves in US yields....

GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Credit markets have moved into a "risk-on" posture following a much stronger than expected headline preliminary headline GDP figure for 2Q14. We always warn to be careful to look more deeply into GDP data to see the impact of inventories. The ADP private payroll survey was a mild disappointment. A fear of higher interest rates has weighed on stocks.EURUSD is trading below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are broadly higher. Yields on the European periphery are higher as well. EZ 10-yr 1.17%, +5bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  +5bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.54%,+6bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are lower . U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


dc CB 16:18 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Re:CNBC

Definition of 'Pullback'
any day Stox don't make new alltime highs

Definition of 'Correction'
Stox down

Definition of 'Crash'
down more than 150 on the Dow

Paris ib 16:15 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Yields in the U.S. are up 5-6% in the middle of the curve today. The USD index is up just 0.34%. You can make the assumption that money will flood into the U.S. on the back of higher yields or you can suggest that money will stay away until whatever needs to happen to U.S. yields happens. Those buying USD on the assumption that higher yields will see an immediate flood of new money into the U.S. might like to reassess their timing. Don't assume there will be a huge rush to buy into a bear market in U.S. bonds. Yellen notwithstanding.

Mtl JP 16:06 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

some definitions for reference:

From Investopedia:
Definition of 'Pullback'
- A falling back of a price from its peak. This type of price movement might be seen as a brief reversal of the prevailing upward trend, signaling a slight pause in upward momentum.

Definition of 'Correction'
- A reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. Corrections are generally temporary price declines interrupting an uptrend in the market or an asset. A correction has a shorter duration than a bear market or a recession, but it can be a precursor to either.

Definition of 'Crash'
- A sudden and significant decline in the value of a market. A crash is most often associated with an inflated stock market. Causes for a crash may include an economic bubble in which securities, or other investments, are trading at prices far above their intrinsic value, or a highly-leveraged market in which debt is used to finance further investment. Crashes are distinguishable from a bear market by their rapid decline in a number of days, rather than a decline over a longer period of time. A crash can lead to a depression in the overall economy and subsequent bear market.

Paris ib 16:03 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

CB - the 7 year auction will be interesting today. The cost of finance is starting to move meaningfully higher in the States. We won't see the ramifications of that in the very short term but there will be consequences.

london red 16:02 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JP, its a tough one. 80 day ema, today at 6910, has supported whole rally from mid 13 (1.54) on a closing basis. we got a false break below another trendline back in june at 167. this time the break below the same trendline has held (17050 c.) and we tested the 80 day ema today currently resting under it. from 154 to 172 is a long trend. imm longs are still apparent and a break of technical resistance will be seized upon in a rising dollar environment. youd expect the 200 day to be tested in such an instance.
sterling is still v strong vs other currencies and rightly so, since data is good and the economy growing well. there is room for improvement, such as wages growth, but the uk is in a lot better position than europe. but with that said, if higher rates are being priced in in the US, cable will be shackled. in such an instance you can expect a sideways to downtrend with strong rallies on solid uk data prints. that doesnt rule out a sharp fall during the initial price in.
bottom line think while under 43/50 still under pressure but caution warranted as well under daily lower bolli. if above 43/50 you look to 75/1.7. downside targets 61.8 at 6883 and then your 100 day. fed will go a long way to indicating if we should be buying dips or selling rallies.

GVI Forex Blog 15:59 GMT July 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Market participants are looking past the excellent showing in the first reading of second quarter US GDP at other problem areas this morning. The ADP jobs data was uninspiring, raising fears about Friday's July payrolls data. The GDP data depended heavily on big, unsustainable inventory builds. And rumors that the G7 would publish a statement on Russia later today are also on traders' minds

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: GDP Driven Gains Evaporate Early

Mtl JP 15:56 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

wonder why Greenspan is aping what Ron Paul said earlier

ref Mtl JP 19:40 GMT July 29, 2014
Ron Paul: Stocks are in a bubble and will crash - on CNBC

dc CB 15:46 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise



remember yesterday's Stellar 5Y auction

OOOPPPPPS! $35billion and down 5% in less than 24hrs.

dc CB 15:38 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

dc CB 20:31 GMT July 29, 2014
it's all aTwitter.
4% GDP, up from -2.9% almost a 7% rise...all based on Tweets and Adverts.
Yes that will be the headline tom morning. :))))))

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Now what's a Gammy to do?


*GREENSPAN SAYS 'KEY QUESTION' IS WHETHER U.S. FACES FALSE DAWN
*GREENSPAN PREDICTS AT SOME POINT EQUITIES TO HAVE CORRECTION

Livingston nh 15:31 GMT July 30, 2014
EM summer reruns
Reply   
Although slightly delayed from start date of last summer's Taper Rout EM currencies seem to be following the same script --- I hope the FOMC enjoys lunch

Livingston nh 15:24 GMT July 30, 2014
JPY new best friend
Reply   
seems that the JPY has dumped S&P for the 10 yr Treasury

GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

2-yr last I saw 0.57% at recent highs

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

odds of gbpusd holding 1.69 for the day ?
tia

GVI Forex Blog 15:14 GMT July 30, 2014 Reply   
July 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for July 30, 2014

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

what is the us 2-yr note currently doing ?
tia

GVI Forex john 15:11 GMT July 30, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 30, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, July 31. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Retail Sales, Employment, EZ- HICP, Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI.

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Retail Sales, Employment EZ- HICP, Unemployment.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI, Natural Gas.


london red 15:08 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

bit of aussie and cable buying before the fix. thats probably our lot in terms of new lows until fomc.
most majors have gone a long way and are short term overdone here. you would look to some kind of profit take before we go into the nfp on friday. we may get fresh lows out of fomc then a profit take. but make no mistake, its still a dollar market until proved otherwise.

GVI Forex john 14:56 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

10-yr 2.525% +4.5bp

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT July 30, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -3.700 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -3.970 prev.
Gasoline: +0.360 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.400 prev.
Distillates: +0.790 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +1.600 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.50% vs. 93.60% exp vs. 93.80% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john 13:47 lets blame the 10-yr for the stock turning negative and not that players know that the GDP release is BS.
-
odds of Gold going to $1300+ next: ____ ?
(currently at $1294-ish)

Mtl JP 13:51 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

PAR 13:02 great call on twtr. (applause and a curtsy)
$ 47.75, +9.16 +23.74% already

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

10-yr 2.516% funny how sentiment can turn on one number.

london red 13:40 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

they have been behind the curve not wanting to rock the boat but its been coming for a couple of weeks now. july surveys have been stellar and suggest even better than todays q2 gdp. and it applies in all walks of life, there comes a point when being cautious starts to become being late.

GVI Forex john 13:27 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I certainly could be wrong, but I think the Fed will not want to rock the boat while its still tapering its asset purchase program. fwiw, I believe Yellen already has SOME of Friday's data in hand. The complete data are not assembled until late Thursday for security reasons.

The strongest clues we will get will come from their description of the current state of the economy. In other words, draw your own conclusions!

Plovdiv Gotin 13:21 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

1.3370 AH en route to 1.3994. Next 1.3322/1.3277and very important 1.3189.GT

london red 13:17 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john its matter as the market needs the fed to confirm it sees the same thing in order for the trend to stay in place. if they dont acknowledge then what they are saying is that nothing for them has changed and so the market will have got ahead of itself. if it gives some kind of acknowledgement that improving data will cause rates to go up faster, then the market has room to rally further. of course it cant go in a straight line but buying dollar dips would continue to make sense.

GVI Forex john 13:16 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

I never commented on this over the weekend. These data are now a week old. Note how the markets have been accumulating EURUSD shorts.



GVI Forex john 13:10 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
Its not as obvious to me on the charts as it is in my mind's eye that the EURUSD has been working lower in steps. We paused first above 1.3600 before breaking and then dying above 1.3500. We then went through the same process at 1.3400. I wonder if we will see the same pattern again above 1.3300.

I'm wondering now if the FOMC decision matters later?

PAR 13:02 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Ok . RISK ON . Lets buy more TWTR .

GVI Forex john 12:59 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Post-data 10-yr 2.505% +3.5bp
EURUSD 1.3400 cleanly breached.

Mtl JP 12:59 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

what surprise ... when u have demi-gods on the forum ?
Livingston nh 20:05 GMT July 29, 2014
Conference Board Survey Much Stronger than Expected. Latest Fed Decision on Wednesday: Reply
NOMINAL GDP - 4.4% // this is the key fig not some pointy head elite preferred number

If nominal is sub 4% there may be a real problem

PAR 12:58 GMT July 30, 2014
GDP - ADP

GDP growth of 4 % chould be wake up call for Yellen , but maybe she is only focused on unemployment .

Imho zero rates dont helpnemployment. On the contrary

. it boost corporate mergers leading to job cuts .

It boost stock buy backs leading to reduced real investments .

It boosts taks inversions by US companies .

NY JM 12:56 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Upside surprise + 1Q revision pre-empts the FOMC as the market is starting to look towards the end of the ultra-dovish tunnel.

10-year now at 2.50%

EURUSD res starts 1.3395 (overnight low)

london red 12:53 GMT July 30, 2014
GDP - ADP

taken in perspective, adp still points to 200-260 nfp.
other things to note are pce, now well abv 2%. fed must talk about raising later. fun while it lasted but time to crash those stocks and start raising rates next year.
euro done its support probably low until fomc but not going higher fast either. while under 134 still room to settle towards lows come fomc later

PAR 12:48 GMT July 30, 2014
GDP - ADP
Reply   
GDP is history and a lot of noise .

ADP is more accurate and pointing to lacklustre job growth .

Too much mergers , stock buy backs and job cuts .

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 2Q14prelim

2Q14 preliminary GDP. Much stronger than expected and 1Q14 data revised stronger.




GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 2Q14prelim

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised).

The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 10). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 2Q14prelim

Headline GDP + revision to 1Q data much stronger than expected. Note U.S, data are annualized.

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT July 30, 2014
U.S. GDP 2Q14prelim
Reply   



ALERT
+4.00% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. -2.90% prev.(r -2.1%)


RELEASE: U.S. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

tokyo ginko 12:27 GMT July 30, 2014
aud/usd sniffing for 0.9080/00
Reply   
GT all!

london red 12:24 GMT July 30, 2014
trading levels
Reply   
cable res at 42 and 50 supp 10. aussie at 80/85 55/61. euro supp 72/85. res 20/25
gdp up next, the may and june durable goods leads me to be cautious here. i prefer to sell any blip as expect market will run into fomc with dollar v near highs.

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT July 30, 2014
July 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment



ADP data weaker than expected. Previous data were unrevised.






Click on chart for nearly 15-yr history



GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT July 30, 2014
July 2014-- U.S. ADP Private Employment
Reply   



ALERT
+218K vs. +235K exp. vs. +281K prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 12:11 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

some estimates for adp are quite high c 270k and the bar is high for usd, but the momentum is behind the greenback and i suspect even a miss will be bought ahead of gdp and even a miss there will be bought in fomc. there id say the buck stops but until then market jumps to support usd on every blip lower. think need sub 200k adp to take a few higher stops.

Chennai AMI 12:06 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Sell usd ?

london red 11:56 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

german infl up shortly. market will use any blip higher to short euro given spains miss and thus a blow out required to tip eurozone infl higher.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44 GMT July 30, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD



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GVI Forex 11:34 GMT July 30, 2014
Sanctions
Reply   
07:28 (RU) German Dep Gov spokesperson Wirtz: G7 discussing ways to coordinate Russian sanctions
- Says German exports to Russia -15% in first five months of 2014
- Says German exports to Ukraine -32% in first five months of 2014

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex john 11:04 GMT July 30, 2014
Three Big U.S. Data Releases Due: ADP, GDP and Fed Policy Decision

ADP first in just over an hour

Street expects +235K vs. +281K last month.

These data INFLUENCE market expectations for NFP but they are so volatile that they are not trusted.

PAR 10:57 GMT July 30, 2014
Argentina - Russia
Reply   
Compared to Greece , Argentina is a minor problem which will have no impact at all on markets .

Russian stock market is higher as sanctions against Russia are a joke and affect nobody .

Russian billionaires staying in London and at the Cote d' azur just keep on partying and buying football teams .

GVI Forex john 10:31 GMT July 30, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR narrowly mixed. Spot to 20-day averages have been turning mixed as EUR losing less vs. USD than others.




GVI Forex 10:20 GMT July 30, 2014
Three Big U.S. Data Releases Due: ADP, GDP and Fed Policy Decision

Wednesday 30 July 2014
Today is busy with the result of the latest FOMC meeting and key data in the US and Europe. The FOMC is unlikely to deliver any major surprises. There is no press conference and Fed Chair Yellen has recently updated the markets on the Fed’s thinking in her testimony to Congress. We expect no change to policy with the exception of a further $10bn tapering of asset purchases to $25bn. However, the press statement will still be dissected for any clues about the policy outlook. Earlier data releases include the first estimate of Q2 GDP. This is expected to show a rebound after the sharp fall in Q1 (we expect an above consensus 3.5% annualised) but this will still mean that there was virtually no growth in H1. However, there could also be a change to history as a result of benchmark revisions. The ADP employment report for July will also be closely watched after its success in predicting June payrolls.... Lloyds Bank

Mtl JP 10:19 GMT July 30, 2014
Three Big U.S. Data Releases Due: ADP, GDP and Fed Policy Decision

maybe "ADP data are not a reliable predictor of NFP",
how reliable is GDP number of anything ?

GVI Forex Blog 09:53 GMT July 30, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD maintained a steady hand in a busy data-driven European session. US data has recently come in on the strong side. Dealers noting that should the Fed soften its dovish tone further both US front-end yields and USD should move immediately higher. Dealer also added that should the Fed disappoint today the damage for USD would likely remain limited as long as there was continued data strength

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Key event day for US with Q2 advance GDP reading and FOMC rate decision

GVI Forex Blog 09:32 GMT July 30, 2014
Three Big U.S. Data Releases Due: ADP, GDP and Fed Policy Decision
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- ADP Jobs, GDP, FOMC Decision

The Wednesday focus is the ADP Private Payrolls Survey. The perennials problem is that the ADP data are not a reliable predictor of NFP.

Three Big U.S. Data Releases Due: ADP, GDP and Fed Policy Decision

GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT July 30, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Europe markets are in a mild a "risk-off" posture heading into an eventful day from the U.S. on the data front. The ADP private payroll survey is due early and an FOMC decision is due late. Odds are the NFP result on Friday will prove to be the top event of the week, so the ADP figure has the potential to be a market mover early. EURUSD tested below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly steady. Some yields are at multi-century lows. Yields on the European periphery are steady as well. EZ 10-yr 1.12%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.55%  0bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield& is 2.47%, -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly lower . U.S. share futures are positive.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 09:08 GMT July 30, 2014
aussie
Reply   
aussie. edging towards 50 day ma at 9361 today. the only major yet to fall vs the usd, it stubbornly held the 50 day of late so a close below there today will be significant, more so if accompanied thru the trendline at 9357 today, bringing 9230 into play. one caveat is that there is a high degree of complacency in topside options, which risks a higher move and the fed must come to the table today otherwise all downside bets are off as you feel any dollar disappointment will be best seen vs aud.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT July 30, 2014
July 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim
Reply   




ALERT
-8.4 vs. -8.4 vs. -7.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

PAR 08:43 GMT July 30, 2014
US GDP
Reply   
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank expects today’s preliminary US Q2 GDP to come in at 4.2%, versus market consensus of a 3% increase.

Key quotes

“Notwithstanding any revisions to Q1's -2.9% print, we need a 3+% print to ensure any growth at all in H1.”

“The early year bad weather did clearly have an impact but a healthier economy would surely have taken it more in its stride over a 6 month period.”

“However on the plus side employment has been decent all year and the ADP report out today (+230k expected, DB at +250k) is likely to be seen as more important than GDP barring a big move or revision in the latter.”

“Our take on the US economy continues to be that it’s growing but that the trend rate of growth is currently structurally impaired and that the disappointments relative to expectations that have characterised this recovery will broadly continue.”

london red 07:07 GMT July 30, 2014
euro
Reply   
saxony cpi higher than f/c at +0.4% m/m and +0.8% y/y. so german cpi due later, upside risk.
spain gdp beats but cpi a big miss and euro is lower on this.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:02 GMT July 30, 2014
AceTrader Jul 30: Food for thought to traders & FX operation management
Reply   


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

30 Jul 2014 03:49GMT

A piece of very interesting WSJ article Tue which is a food for thought to traders & the management of FX operations. Currency-trading volume is shrinking at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, the latest sign of the placid conditions that have frustrated traders in markets around the globe this year.

The amount of money changing hands daily in FX markets on average fell about 8% in Apr compared with the same period a year earlier, to $4.1 trillion, according to a survey by 6 central banks released Mon.
The drop was steepest in North America, where volumes plunged nearly 20%. The survey covered about 80% of global currency trading.

Many investors remain on the sidelines as they wait for more clarity in the Federal Reserve's timetable for raising interest rates, which is expected to cause major swings in the dollar's value against many currencies.
The Fed's policy committee may provide some direction on that after release of FOMC statements later today.

Banks and hedge funds are feeling the strain from sleepy market conditions. For the 10 largest global investment banks, trading revenue in the fixed-income, currencies n commodities (FICC) units that comprise FX trading plunged 15.7% in the first 3 months of the year fm the year-ago period.

dc CB 03:40 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

seems I'm with you on that thinking...

Vacation take those Lobsters to the Bank

neck snap trade

twist to the right or the left with Assurance

GVI Forex Blog 03:28 GMT July 30, 2014 Reply   
Both the FOMC decision and the advance estimate of the US Q2 GDP are pending today and

Morning Briefing : 30-Jul-2014 -0328 GMT

to dk 03:18 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise



test ing th e line

dc CB 03:17 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

Over the first six months of this year, the firm generated a profit of nearly $1 billion


and NOOOOO it ain't Zillow, It ain't Trulla, It Ain't Poloco, It ain't Amazon

It's Steven

Profits Soaring After Disgrace

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:23 GMT July 30, 2014
AceTrader Jul 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

30 Jul 2014 00:59GMT

USD/JPY - .... Statement Japan MTEI Official Quote:
'industrial production shows shipments falling for 5 straight months, which is similar to last time Japan entered recession.'

Last night U.S. President Obama announced expanded sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, just hours after the European Union imposed its most sweeping measures yet penalizing Moscow for its role in supporting separatists in neighboring Ukraine.


Wednesday will see the release of Japan’s industrial output, industrial production forecast, Swiss KOF indicator, Eurozone business climate, economic and services sentiment, Germany’s CPI and HICP, U.S. ADP employment, Canada’s producer prices, U.S. GDP and FOMC rate decision.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:53 GMT July 30, 2014
Watch Out for a Surprise

I see a two-way surprise risk although market wants it to be one-way.

Watch Out for a Surprise

Livingston nh 00:40 GMT July 30, 2014
J'accuse; J'amuse

Oh well, send your co-ordinates and we wll nuke the bstrds

dc CB 00:36 GMT July 30, 2014
J'accuse; J'amuse

the really funny thing is that the "news" is filled with white people screaming at each other as "small towns" deBAIT whether or not to temporaily house all those ....

Map: See where immigrant kids find temporary shelter
USA TODAY ‎- 9 hours ago
An interactive map of data from the Office of Refugee Resettlement shows unaccompanied immigrant minors finding temporary homes as far ...

Even our (MD) governor (and Presidential Hopeful Challenger to Hillar) is now embattled and is to'd and fro'd on the editorial and opED pages of Jeff Bezo's very own WaPost.

Nicely played Diversion

Livingston nh 00:10 GMT July 30, 2014
J'accuse; J'amuse

This is so tedious -- Nuke'm and be done with them

Bailiff, call the next case

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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