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Forex Forum Archive for 07/31/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 22:56 GMT July 31, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US and European equities fell sharply overnight. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 1.7%, while the S&P500 is currently down 1.6%, the latter posting its largest one-day fall since April. There was no single and obvious catalyst; geopolitical factors, fear of Fed tightening, Portuguese banking sector concerns, Argentina's default, and profit-taking all probably in the mix.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT July 31, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.

  • Far East: JP, CN PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs.
  • North America: US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Univ of Michigan, Construction Spending, COT.


sd sf 21:38 GMT July 31, 2014
Morning
Reply   
EurCad + GbpCad + $Cad

ntg but offers this morning - makes sense as into the upper end of this weeks range.

GBP
offers at 88 89 90 atm

eur
bids @80/81/82 some stops @1.3413

bit mixed tbh - all depends on the NFP - as to whether Yellen wins or the market wins.

Mtl JP 21:25 GMT July 31, 2014
EUR Heat Map



suggest to forget the euro focus for a bit
it is the dollar that appears bid
against Gold
against crude
against gbp
against the euro
Bottom Line:
usdx up to 81.50

Mtl JP 21:14 GMT July 31, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

Jul 31, 2014 KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's parliament rejected Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk's resignation on Thursday and finally passed legislation he said was needed to finance an army offensive against a separatist rebellion in the east and avert a national default on its debts. ../.
-
impressive.
1) "they" reject his resignation and the fool sticks around
2) financing an army = averting a national debt default. doubly impressive
3) now the so-called rebels know where the serpent's head is.

GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT July 31, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EUR mixed after mixed German and EC data. Spot to 20-day average now mostly higher.



GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner -- Top Items
Reply   

FRIDAY
CH Holiday
JP Mfg PMI
CN NBS PMI
CN HSBC final PMI
DE MFG PMI final
EZ MFG PMI final
GB MFG PMI
US Employment 
US PCE defl y
US Personal Income
CA RBC-Markit PMI
US MKT MFG PMI final
US U Mich final
US ISM MFG PMI

GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT July 31, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

PAR 20:04 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Portugal ,Ukraine , Argentina ,Chicago PMI , Yellen and Ebola .

dc CB 19:57 GMT July 31, 2014
Is it safe?
Reply   
*WHITE HOUSE SAYS `NO INDICATION' OF EBOLA RISK TO U.S.

NY JM 19:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Good lesson in fx from stocks if there is a surprise miss on downside in US jobs tomorrow. Just pointing out a risk, not a forecast

london red 19:38 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

s&p not even done last months low yet. perspective.
if carlsberg did sell offs? 1500-1600.

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT July 31, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:10 GMT July 31, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...





dc CB 19:01 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

earlier on CNBC

SURVIVING THE SELLOFF

Which economic data really matters for your investments, with Patrick Kaser, Brandywine Global, and Brian Lazorishak, Chase Investment Counsel.

LMASOFF

GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. and German Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report on Friday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income

On Friday, a slew of final PMI reports, month U.S. employment data and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured. U.S. data on Thursday were mixed, but generally supported the notion of a policy tightening earlier rather than later.

U.S. and German Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report on Friday

PAR 17:39 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Do they still know where their physical gold is or did they swap it for a Gold ETF bought on margin ?

dc CB 17:35 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

PAR,
right now they're very busy smacking Gold, trying to drive money back into Treasuries

tokyo ginko 16:43 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

i am long usd/jpy and I am still alive

PAR 16:33 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Compared to Ukraine the Argentine situation looks like paradise .

PAR 16:29 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Yellen on the Phone with PPT . Lets avoid margin calls , we must act .

Paris ib 16:00 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Lower stock prices are the only way that the U.S. can push yields lower. In essence the U.S. can not afford an economic recovery (and the higher bond yields - or financing costs - that go with it). Every time we have signs of a real economic recovery bond yields move higher. Higher interest rates put pressure on stocks and yields then fall. The USD is unlikely to benefit from such a scenario, that is: an unaffordable economic recovery. You can get some speculative USD accumulation but you are not going to get massive capital inflow, which is what you need for a sustainable USD rally.

GVI Forex john 15:55 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Equities turning more ugly on increasing Fed tightening fears. Lower stock pices driving bond yields lower.

Impact on USD is unclear.

Paris ib 15:53 GMT July 31, 2014
Why Kiev?
Reply   
"Washington’s strategy pursues a double goal: on one hand to put Ukraine in the hands of the US-dominated IMF and annex it to NATO, also under US control; on the other hand to use the Ukrainian crisis, which Washington contributed to create, to reinforce US influence over its European allies. To this end, Washington is coming to an agreement with Berlin on a partition of areas of influences."

Kiev and Europe

Paris ib 15:49 GMT July 31, 2014
Gaza and Israel
Reply   
Does anyone else get the impression that Israel is going to get cut off? The media tide seems to be turning. I personally think the Israelis have been lured into a trap. (Just like when Saddam Hussein was more or less given the green light by the U.S. to invade Kuwait.) What it means for financial markets I'm not sure. Something.... but murky at this point.

Kuwait and Hussein (in Italian)

dc CB 15:46 GMT July 31, 2014
STOCKS

red,
last week when SnP was 1980ish, I wrote that we'd see 2000 before 1950, because Yellen had a rocket in her pocket.

Rocket got shot down by the Iron Dome of 4% GDP print...so no Windows to be Dressed today.

Everything is showing Red today except for the VIX.

Paris ib 15:44 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

Thanks. What was that about??? So I avoid next time. :-)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

IB link fixed

GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Equity markets remain in a mixed risk-off posture following a larger than expected increase in the U.S. Employment Cost Index. There is an increased focus on U.S. wage rates. They could be pivotal in the jobs figures on Friday. EURUSD is trading just below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to higher. Yields on the European periphery are mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.18%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.62%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.56%, 0bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are ending lower . U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 15:37 GMT July 31, 2014
STOCKS

CB, i suppose s&p can stretch to 1900/1916 if it really wants to. could do with a good pullback if youre honest.

it appears people are taking profits across the board on recent fx gains. em has taken a good hiding all day really, but that was to be expected given the fed. aussie and kiwi holding up surprising well.

Paris ib 15:37 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

I have no idea why this link is censored

the censored bit is J A P (without gaps)

Paris ib 15:35 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

Ok I give up here is the link you'll have to cut and paste:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JAP-01-100714.html

Paris ib 15:34 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

At some point the link will work.

Japan

Paris ib 15:29 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics

"Despite its peace constitution, Japan boasts one of the largest militaries in the world. It is the eighth largest military spender in the world - ahead of all other Asian countries except China - and it's planning to increase its spending substantially over the next five years."

Better link.

Japan

Paris ib 15:25 GMT July 31, 2014
Lies and Statistics
Reply   
What I love is this obsession with individual statistics. As if they matter if those statistics don't make capital flows happen. Statistics only count if they move money. Right now IMVHO the only thing that matters is what is happening to current account imbalances (and as a direct correlation to international capital flows). The Japanese are repatriating capital... fact. And global geopolitical risks only mean THAT TREND (towards everyone taking their money home) is likely to continue. What's more Japan is trashing its constitution and looking to reARM. No more free money to the rest of the world. All those countries who traditionally ran large external current account deficits (that is were on the receiving end of large capital inflows) will have to rethink. USD/JPY bulls are having themselves on in the biggest way. Again IMVHO.

Japan ReARMS

dc CB 15:17 GMT July 31, 2014
STOCKS



dc CB 20:38 GMT July 30, 2014
This is what's scaring the market ---(Not another Pic of Gammy)
HY Corp debt has been "financing" all the stock buybacks that have made earnings look so great.

london red 15:03 GMT July 31, 2014
loonie
Reply   
despite the fall intraday, loonie is still abv upper daily bolli indicating just how overbought the market was. if below 80 then 60 likely and i start to like it there, not far from the 200 day ma at 10839.

GVI Forex Blog 14:53 GMT July 31, 2014 Reply   
July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 1, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT July 31, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


July 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 1. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, GB, US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income.

  • Far East: JP, CN PMIs.
  • Europe: EZ, GB- PMIs.
  • North America: US- Employment, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Univ of Michigan, Constructon Spending, COT.


Livingston nh 14:33 GMT July 31, 2014
NFP
Reply   
After Europe close we may get a better idea of the number traders who may be moving towards the exits ahead of the NFP - USD/JPY may be most sensitive to change in Fed hike expectations (103.25 b4 NFP)

July is a low month for the Plug factor (maybe 45K) and there is a good chance that the participation rate may push up the number of unemployed as job seekers enter hence an uptick in the Unemployment rate // BUT 220K and 5.9%

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT July 31, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+88 vs. +90 exp vs. +90 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:58 GMT July 31, 2014
cable
Reply   
eurgbp keeps cable under pressure with 83 fib currently capping topside. if broken likely to see a move to 6910. eurgbp res at 7955/60. on the downside 100 day supports

london red 13:48 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI

underlying not as bad as headline. should be a one off according to text.
would be nice to get involved at 10260 9055/60 yen swissy

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI

yes it was a big miss as rumored

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Chicago PMI
Reply   



ALERT
52.6 vs. 63.0 exp. vs. 62.6 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT July 31, 2014
Chicago PMI
Reply   
Chatter the number is a miss. subscribers get it early.

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT July 31, 2014
EUR Heat Map

Market setting up for a strong payroll tomorrow??

10-yr 2.589% last.

Equities falling on pressure from yields... presumably USD positive, but leaves the markets at risk for a disappointment ?

london red 13:20 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

eci suggests tomorrows ahe print risks 0.3% or certainly people will be looking for it higher than the 0.2 exp.
euro test of low done with good tail on hourly candle. thats the marker for further losses and while its not done, risk is to drift higher as crosses support.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:11 GMT July 31, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

It seems to me 1.3144(tgt from 1.3994 not be enough for sellers)There are signs for lower levels.

Paris ib 13:06 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

"A source in the Ukrainian government confirmed that the transfer of the gold reserves of Ukraine to the United States was ordered by the acting PM Arseny Yatsenyuk." March 7

Good old Beck

Paris ib 12:43 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

Nick that depends on who you listen to. Indicatively, according to the latest IMF figures, Ukraine's official gold holdings are just over 40 tons, having doubled in the past decade. And according to some sources that GOLD was removed (for safe keeping?).

Ukraine's Gold

GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly Jobless pivoting the 300K line.




Click on chart for ten-year history


PRESS

RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

Livingston nh 12:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

For FOMC the ECI (where labor and inflation intersect)
seasonally adjusted
Mar. June
2014 2014
_______________________________________________
CIVILIAN WORKERS

Compensation 0.3 0.7
Wages and salaries 0.3 0.6
Benefits 0.4 1.0

PRIVATE INDUSTRY

Compensation 0.3 0.8
Wages and salaries 0.2 0.8
Benefits 0.3 1.1

GOVERNMENT

Compensation 0.5 0.5
Wages and salaries 0.3 0.3
Benefits 0.7 0.9

PAR 12:38 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Distorted by holidays . A lot of noise . Lets wait till after labor day to see real trends .

london red 12:36 GMT July 31, 2014
June 2014 Canada: GDP

gdp firmer but wages softer than expected. however some good revisions to nonfarms suggests 10950 will cap for now.

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT July 31, 2014
June 2014 Canada: GDP
Reply   




ALERT
m/m +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:33 GMT July 31, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

US bind yields are driving the market. 10-year is approaching 2.60%, note the fx impact.

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
302K vs. 305K exp. vs. 284K (r 279K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.539 vs. 2.495 exp. vs. 2.500 (r 2.508 ) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 12:21 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - the "FI buy on stox dip" strategy is now competing w/ a possible "credibility challenge" to the Fed -- the yen may have switched from SPX to 10 yr, VIX may get some attention again as various markets start to realign

NFP and PMI loom large - even today Emp cost index might trigger a reaction - maybe a sea change beginning as markets see bogeymen in formerly insignificant data points

PAR 12:04 GMT July 31, 2014
Banco Espirito Santo - Finito - Bail In
Reply   
Banco Espirito Santo May Need A Bail-In. Shares in the Portuguese bank fell 40% before being halted after it reported a $3.6 billion loss and said it had suspended staff over "harmful management" linked to the bank's exposure to business holdings of the Espirito Santo family. Reuters' George Hay says creditors may now need to step in as private investors are scared off. WSJ's Simon Nixon says the BES situation is a blow to the ECBS' credibility

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-july-31-2014-7#ixzz392xuEb7V

london red 12:01 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

bonds have had a great gdp inspired run. will another 230k nfp change anything? probably not. so cant really see much reason to buy here. increased wages growth can squeeze some more juice out of the orange tomorrow. even though the fed ever so slightly changed its stance yest, you its still playing catch up and the market has more than fully priced everything in.
the reaction to todays data will give a clue as to how willing people are to chance the highs, which has implications for nfp reaction tomorrow.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:57 GMT July 31, 2014
Linkedin Spam
Reply   
For those on LinkedIn, you may have noticed a large increase in add requests. I have not seen it reported but seems to be some sort of hack that is sending out a ton of requests to add to your LinkedIn network.

GVI Forex john 11:57 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

DAX having a rough day -136 last
S&P Futures -11

Risk off? if so bond yields should be falling.

GVI Forex john 11:51 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.565% +0.5bp

bonds don't seem to care.

GVI Forex john 11:49 GMT July 31, 2014
Argentina
Reply   
BONY says first deadline has passed for Argentine payment. Bondholders have been informed of default, CNBC.

any forex implications?

PAR 11:48 GMT July 31, 2014
USA Job cuts
Reply   
United States Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) increased to 46.887K in July from previous 31.434K

london red 11:14 GMT July 31, 2014
cad gdp
Reply   
most looking for 0.3 some 0.4 after prev months disappointment. options market appears to be looking at a 30 point move so a beat isnt going to threaten the 200 day ma today, but if 50-60 seen then worth jumping on since sentiment, technicals and spread all favour a move higher.
on a miss its difficult to chase the pair higher, since its still abv the upper daily bolli and short term overbought, but there is an argument for an outside bullish month, for which a close abv 10960 is required, as technically the lows and highs are still lower month on month. moving average crosses will get priced in next month and with that come the pullbacks so buyers up here have to be nimble. 10949 is 50% of 113/106 so thats one to watch as well.

Manchester Nick 10:58 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

They'll never see this gold (:

SaaR KaL 10:38 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

Long USDJPY and you will die

Mtl JP 10:11 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

It is unlikely that the IMF / world bank make loans without solid (Gold) collateral. By end of August (i.e next payday) Yats will need to be showing where the 35-40 tons of Ukrainian Gold is.

GVI Forex john 10:09 GMT July 31, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
Forex market from EUR Perspective. EUR mixed after mixed German and EC data. Spot to 20-day average mixed as well.



Manchester Nick Anderson 10:08 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

I'd say its still going, civil war still continues and the only question is how long will people die there. I guess those sanctions don't save anyone from mortars and cross fire on the streets of Donetsk and Slavyansk.
Official Kiev actions only escalate crisis and US support also makes peaceful solution unreachable. As I remember, eastern parts of Ukraine wanted only an increasement of authority of their local governments by federalistaion. You know, USA is a Federation. But they (not only them) call a process of federalisation using term of separatism, it's not the same. They wanted separatists, they got'em.
Anyway, it seems to me the only way to solve the Ukranian problem is to stop this "ATO" and try to negotiate.

Paris ib 09:47 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

LA I would be surprised you thought otherwise. I doubt you have much access to or interest in a well informed and free press. I suggest you google Pepe Escobar and read his articles on what has been going in the Ukraine. For starters.

Paris ib 09:46 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

"Ukraine is for all practical purposes broke. The Kremlin's consistent position for the past three months has been to encourage the European Union to find a solution to Ukraine's dire economic mess. Brussels did nothing. It was betting on regime change to the benefit of Germany's heavyweight puppet Vladimir Klitschko, aka Klitsch The Boxer." April 17 Pepe Escobar

Ukraine

LA 09:44 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

It seems to me that Russia is a last country in the world who acts honestly

London Chris 09:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

red, you nailed it with this comment.

ib, thats one aspect. another is the usd was used as a funding currency and has to be bought back

Paris ib 09:41 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

The Ukraine was already broke. IMF money is CONDITIONAL on the Ukraine 'pacifying' the East (ie. waging war).

"Over a month ago, on April 10, Putin sent a crucial letter to the 18 heads of state (five of them outside of the EU) whose countries import Russian gas via Ukraine. He was more than explicit; Moscow could not by itself keep financing the about-to-default Ukrainian economy. Between discount after discount and failing to impose penalty after penalty, since 2009 Moscow has subsided Kiev to the tune of an astonishing $35.4 billion. Europeans, Putin wrote, would also have to come to the table.

A neutral, Finlandized Ukraine would finish off for good the current mess. It's just a matter of waiting for the NATO neo-liberal neo-fascist junta to go broke, and frozen to death."

The Ukraine is Broke

LA 09:39 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

you're absolutely right. 8 millions of russians live in Ukraine, more than a half of citizens speak russian and don't know ukrainian.

GVI Forex Blog 09:34 GMT July 31, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP was poised for its worst monthly performance since March 2013 (down about 1.2% in July). GBP/USD was below the 1.69 handle. Some dealers noted that recent soft UK data seemed to have shifted markets perceived timing of a rate hike into early 2015 from late this year

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone Flash CPI hits fresh 4-year low while employment improves; Plethora of corporate earnings dominate session

tokyo ginko 09:29 GMT July 31, 2014
Ukraine

Arseniy Yatsenyuk: "After announcing his resignation, Ukrainian prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk entered into open confrontation with President Petro Poroshenko. "

This guy sure is sending Ukraine into ruins..as mentioned earlier..he needs to grow up and be less emotional.

tokyo ginko 13:30 GMT April 14, 2014
Ukraine: Reply
Noland's boy Yats is a spoil brat who expect that Ukraine can change overnight. By trying to eradicate Russian even as a second language, (naive to think that there is no Russian living in Ukraine). A 39-year old , a young hot blood, too eager, too impatient, disrespectful to Putin in all ways, sending his country to ruin, now expecting UN solders to standby his inexperience and folly?

Paris ib 09:20 GMT July 31, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

The next war will be financial.

Mtl JP 09:18 GMT July 31, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

Do the troops know it is d-day for payday ?
Arseny Yatseniuk says .. only has resources to finance its troops until the end of July. - Reuters

Paris ib 09:12 GMT July 31, 2014
AUD and Rebalancing the Economy
Reply   
The Australian economy for the middle class is really about wages and real estate. Mining gave Australia a boost in the past decade as commodity prices soared. That's over. The dunces in Canberra have this 'plan' that (largely debt-fuelled) property investment will keep the Australian economy ticking over. A whole heap of incentives have been thrown at the property market and the debt that Australians have accumulated (funded 40% overseas) is at record levels. The 'plan' is starting to look a little frayed. As does the AUD.

Meanwhile the graft trial of members of the RBA has been the subject of a GAG order in the Australian press.

RBA Graft Trial Gagged

Building Approvals

GVI Forex john 09:08 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) working lower. Well below ECB "just below 2.0%" target.


PAR 09:02 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 flash HICP (CPI)

It is just noise . Seasonal low oil and vegetable prices .

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT July 31, 2014
June 2014 EZ Unemployment
Reply   




ALERT
11.50% vs. 11.60% exp. vs. 11.60% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 flash HICP (CPI)
Reply   




ALERT
Headline
yy: 0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.50% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.80% vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

SaaR KaL 08:58 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX 2 days
Exp High Exp Low
3980.8531 3940.3533
3991.0845 3964.4405

london red 08:57 GMT July 31, 2014
Mixed German data Have Had No Market Impact. Active Calendar Thursday and Friday

euroland inflation. some looking for 0.3 some 0.6, most 0.5. i think a result in the region of 0.4 would give euro a fighting chance of staging a small rebound after a stellar downside run.
need to see a dip on the number with a quick rebound to evens. as long as 70 holds on an hourly close, there is a chance to run some stops on the topside. make no mistake, its not a turn in the trend, just a healthy pullback.

SaaR KaL 08:55 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPCHF 3 trade days
Exp High Exp Low
1.5371 1.5352
1.5378 1.5340
1.5405 1.5368

Paris ib 08:54 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

red sure I agree with you but right now I am looking at more longer term more fundamental trends in long term international capital flows. Speculative flows cloud the issue but they don't IMVHO make the long term trend. After all they get closed out in the end. Christine Lagarde wanted more balance in Current Account imbalances, she's getting that. Be careful what you wish for. :-)

SaaR KaL 08:52 GMT July 31, 2014
Russia

LOL

Paris ib 08:51 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

Take a look at what happens to GDP growth when the U.S. current account deficit shrinks, as it is now. Like I said: shrinking current account is the mirror image of the capital account. A shrinking current account deficit means the capital inflows are also shrinking. Same thing in Japan, which is now running a current account DEFICIT. That means Japan is now REPATRIATING capital. Money is coming home. And that is a HUGE new development. Tell that to the USD/JPY bulls.

Chart GDP and Current Account

SaaR KaL 08:51 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

GBPJPY next 3 trade days

Exp High Exp Low
173.9582 172.9660
173.4444 172.8748
172.5608 171.9273

london red 08:50 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

ib, thats one aspect. another is the usd was used as a funding currency and has to be bought back. thats what the market was anticipating and you can see this during this mornings trade in the high yielders vs usd. a lot of the froth has now been pulled in.
what you are referring is a problem down the line that may or may not be faced.

Mtl JP 08:49 GMT July 31, 2014
Russia

maybe Vladimir will offer $75, maybe $50 bbl oil
frackers will go tits up
including Biden's son Hunter and Burisma Holdings

GVI Forex Blog 08:49 GMT July 31, 2014
Mixed German data Have Had No Market Impact. Active Calendar Thursday and Friday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: , US- Weekly Jobless, Chicago PMI

Flash EZ HICP (CPI) data are due shortly German Employment data were generally as expected and have had no market impact German June Retail Sales data were mixed.

Mixed German data Have Had No Market Impact. Active Calendar Thursday and Friday

nw kw 08:49 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

think like a printer how's printing to day?

nw kw 08:47 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

strong u/j and soft xaujpy for now but red bet the farm on a strong eur for e/gbp

Paris ib 08:46 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen

PAR the interesting thing about that is that in the 2-5 year area of the yield curve yields have already risen significantly. The amount of U.S. debt rolling over this year is HUGE (not that you will see it mentioned in the corporate press - keeping very quiet about that little issue). The cost of financing U.S. government debt is rising. The key is: will they get that much hoped for wave of foreign capital to keep the costs down? I doubt it. All those hopefuls suggesting that rising yields / rates will see the USD rise significantly are really suggesting that capital inflows will be attracted to higher rates. The U.S. BoP data tells a different picture (as does the TIC data). The current account deficit is falling which means capital inflows are also falling. (The Balance of payments ALWAYS adds up to zero. When the current account balloons, that means capital is pouring in.) Right now that is not happening.

SaaR KaL 08:43 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

KW
Why?
I am Short
Exp High Exp Low
137.7386 137.0524
137.0914 136.5559


I see lower then 136 next week

nw kw 08:39 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

eur/jpy will be popcorns long if good print

GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT July 31, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Equity markets remain in a mixed risk-off posture early Thursday in Europe. The key item today is flash Eurozone HICP (CPI) with one major focus future ECB policy. Friday sees critical U.S. employment data. EURUSD is trading just below 1.3400.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to lower. Yields on the European periphery are mixed. EZ 10-yr 1.16%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.60%  0bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.55%,-1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are lower . U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


nw kw 08:34 GMT July 31, 2014
Russia

eur still has shall oil that can deregulate f puding

PAR 08:34 GMT July 31, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
The only reason Yellen wants to keep US interest rates at zero or close to zero is to keep the interest rates on the gigantic Us debt as low as possible .


Even a modest 1 % rise would have a big impact on US budget deficit.

PAR 08:30 GMT July 31, 2014
Russia
Reply   
Russian stock markets rise for second consecutive day .

nw kw 08:30 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

aud complaining rate drop

nw kw 08:24 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

HSI
Seem Like a drop for a month + to 22000
wow
it has QE so looking for a short if it tops

SaaR KaL 08:24 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD
Long for 2 days

SaaR KaL 08:20 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

KW
GDAX
Exp High Exp Low
9713 9586
9661 9528
wants 9400 in a week I think

HSI
Seem Like a drop for a month + to 22000
wow
Exp High Exp Low
24,977 24,743
24,570 24,369

London London 08:03 GMT July 31, 2014
New signal on the Gold
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1295.83 Target: 1303 Stop: 1281

Visit us for more information.



Posted with permission of global-view.com

forex trading

nw kw 08:03 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

out short dax

london red 08:02 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

NB 21 day has capped eurgbp on a closing basis since move below it c. 8300.a close higher would be significant.

GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

German July Unemployment FALLS (lower is better). Unemployment rate steady.


london red 08:00 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment

good set of numbers from german, euro reacting reasonably well. key will be its reaction on inflation in an hour. eurgbp reacting on the news too. cable fib at 6883, a break brings 100 day into play.

GVI Forex john 07:56 GMT July 31, 2014
July 2014 German Unemployment
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
rate: 6.70% vs. 6.70% exp. vs. 6.70% prev.
change: -12K vs. +5k exp. vs. +9K (+7k) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:49 GMT July 31, 2014
AceTrader July 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

31 Jul 2014 06:59GMT

GBP/USD - .... The British pound relinquished intra-day gain made in Asia after meeting renewed selling at 1.6927 shortly ahead of European open.

Despite edging higher from 1.6906 (Aust.) to 1.6927 on steady short-covering, sellers emerged after U.K. Nationwide house prices came in lower then consensus. Jul m/m was 0.1% vs forecast of 0.5%, previous month's reading was 1.0%.

Judging from current weakness in early European trading, looks like st specs are testing cable's downside n stops below yesterday's 6-week low at 1.6890 are now in focus. Offers remained at 1.6925/30 with some stops above there, suggesting selling the pound is the way to go due to dlr's broad-based strength in European morning..


31 Jul 2014 06:03GMT
GBP/USD -.... U.K. Jul house prices +0.1% m/m vs Jun +1.0% n +10.6% y/y vs 11.8% in Jun.

GVI Forex john 07:49 GMT July 31, 2014
June 2014 German Real Retail Sales

EARLIER: German Retail Sales data mixed.


GVI Forex john 07:41 GMT July 31, 2014
June 2014 German Real Retail Sales
Reply   



Earlier NEWS Release
mm: +1.30% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. -0.60% (r) prev.
yy: +0.40% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +2.40% prev (r).


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 07:40 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

german jobs and euro inflation up soon. f/c for letter is 0.5% but spains m/m suggests risks are to downside and 0.4% likely.

nw kw 07:37 GMT July 31, 2014
nzd

bond seams to lead for now

nw kw 07:31 GMT July 31, 2014
nzd

in short dax swiss dropping/for now

london red 07:27 GMT July 31, 2014
nzd

re eurnzd, i was looking to short just ahead of the 23.6% at 15847 and using the 21 week ma (this week at 15842) as a guide. the average has capped the most recent downtrend and for me is the indicator to use, with a break higher indicating a return to levels around the 200 week (16172 this week) and 38.2 fib (16120 this week).
the pair didnt quite get there before it fell to the hourly trendline and promptly rebounded strongly, suggesting at least another test higher.
the main risks to the downtrend are a fallout from pricing in of higher US rates, which will lead to repositioning of carry trades. the second risk is euro positioning, at an all time high (short).
but there are plenty of factors going for the trend to continue lower, principally you've got one central bank battling deflation and the other trying to stop an economy from overheating.

SaaR KaL 07:20 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD (wants 0.98 in a Month)
Exp High Exp Low
0.9377 0.9318
0.9432 0.9376

NZDUSD (Near 0.8400 will start North to 0.90 in 2 Months)
Exp High Exp Low
0.8493 0.8440
0.8459 0.8402

SaaR KaL 07:14 GMT July 31, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Expected Levels

Exp High Exp Low
1.3415 1.3374---Today
1.3381 1.3343 --- Friday

Cable
Exp High Exp Low
1.6951 1.6886
1.6923 1.6879

USDJPY (Expecting 98 in a Month)
Exp High Exp Low
102.9499 102.0987
102.7924 102.1960

GVI Forex Blog 07:13 GMT July 31, 2014 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN JUN PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -3.3% V -1.2%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 5.2%E; Japan govt Downgrades assessment of industrial output - (KR) SOUTH KOREA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.9%

radeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan METI cuts assessment on industrial production after sharp decline ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

nw kw 06:56 GMT July 31, 2014
nzd

red do you see a soft eur for eur/nzd=== strong u/g

london red 06:45 GMT July 31, 2014
nzd
Reply   
kiwi yest stopped short of a good band of supp at 8400-50. the 200 day ma is at 200 and the 50% fib at 43. the last major low comes in at 8402, below this a recontinuation of downtrend.
youd still expect the 200 day to be tested so look for nzdusd to be capped by 8568, while audnzd should limit its pullback to 10900/15 before another attempt higher.
nzdjpy broke a multi year trendline on the weekly chart last week and any rally this week is likely to be capped by it (88.09).

Auckland 06:18 GMT July 31, 2014
31/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis MMI GROUP
Reply   
31/07/2014 Gold and Silver Analysis
MMI GROUP
Gold
Overnight U.S. GDP became super awesome, it attract the precious metals market volatility, but the fed's interest rate determination is bland, the market closed stability, long position still resisted to kinetic energy in the below, but lack of energy, today's focus on initial jobless claims in the United States, which will further confirms that the U.S. economy.
Gold ETFs on July 31, according to the monitoring data show that as of July 30 main gold ETF holdings of gold holdings of about 1311.34 tons, compared with the previous unchanged.
Technical MMI GROUP trust team think the gold thread oscillation downward trend with four hours, break down on first line of 1292.10 points to 1284 area, breaking down the region, may test the triangle weekly contraction along. Break up on first line of 1306.50, could test a line of 1323.40. it based on the thinking of shorts
The upward resistance: 1301.40, 1306.50, 1310.40, 1323.40,
The downward supporting: 1292.10, 1284, 1268.40, 1268.40

Silver:
Silver Trust7 31, according to data released Silver Trust7 30 Silver holdings of 10014.63 tons, compared with the previous unchanged; the silver holdings worth fell to $6.611 billion.
Last week, Silver has no breakthrough 21 line downward by 20.30 supporting, currently in 20.60 of first line. If it breaks up the first line of 20.70, it May test 21 again. Instead, it breaks down the first line of 20.30, it forward to 19.50.
The upward resistance: 20.70, 21, 21.30, 21.60,
The downward supporting: 20.50, 20.30, 19.50, 20.30

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

GVI Forex Blog 03:44 GMT July 31, 2014 Reply   
FOMC maintained their stance with absolutely no change but the US GDP data

Morning Briefing : 31-Jul-2014 -0344 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:51 GMT July 31, 2014
AceTrader Jul 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

31 Jul 2014 01:05GMT

Statement released by the IMF quote:
'reiterates China 2014 GDP growth forecast at 7.4 pct, 2015 GDP growth at 7.1 pct;
appropriate for China to set 2015 GDP growth target at 6.5-7 pct;
some directors feel an even lower 2015 GDP growth target is appropriate for China;
China should not deploy broad stimulus unless GDP growth well under target level;
reiterates that yuan is "moderately undervalued";
weakness in China real estate sector poses near-term risks for economy; urgent for China to push reforms as current path of growth is unsustainable; near-term risks in china economy manageable due to gov't policy buffers.'


Yesterday, The Federal Reserve pressed ahead with its plan to wind down its bond-buying stimulus and upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, while reaffirming it is in no rush to raise interest rates.

The central bank cut its monthly asset purchases to $25 billion from $35 billion, leaving it on course to shutter the program this fall.

The Fed reiterated that it would likely keep rates near zero for a "considerable time" after its bond buying ends and restated that an "accommodative" policy was needed.

The Fed has kept overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has more than quadrupled its balance sheet to $4.4 trillion through a series of bond purchase programs.

But it cited improving labor market conditions and declining unemployment and acknowledged rising inflation.


Thursday will see the release of U.K. GfK consumer confidence, Australia's building approvals and private home approval, Japan's housing start and construction orders, Germany's unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and U.S. Challenger layoffs and Chicago PMI.

dc CB 01:27 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Too many people that we can no longer afford to support

dc CB 01:25 GMT July 31, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Decision

Mtl JP 23:36 GMT
cheers

not I've got one for you.
Recall all the tinhat stuff about Lagarde's Numerology BIG RESET

Well it were't nothing Monetary. It was about soemthing worse, Ebola.


State Department has confirmed that one U.S. citizen died from Ebola in Nigeria after being infected in Liberia.
Victim who died in Lagos was bound for U.S., and was an American citizen
U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the virus poses a threat to Britain, and will hold an emergency meeting.
Ebola center run by Americans closed after Liberia disturbances
Two Peace Corps volunteers under observation after coming into contact with individual who later died of Ebola
Sierra Leone’s top Ebola doctor dead after contracting virus
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ebola outbreak: Victim who sparked fears of global epidemic was on way home to US

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ northamerica/usa/10998222/Ebola-outbreak- Victim-who-sparked-fears-of-global-epidemic- was-on-way-home-to-US.html


BBC: Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond: Ebola 'is a threat'

GVI Forex Blog 00:06 GMT July 31, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Upbeat U.S. Q2 GDP partly offset by dovish comments from Fed

* Dollar still firmer across the board, but off peaks

* Nonfarm payrolls, PMI reports for China & euro zone next focus

FOREX-Dovish Fed takes edge off dollar rally

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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