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Forex Forum Archive for 08/1/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:33 GMT August 1, 2014
August Newsletter
Reply   
In the August issue:

• Forex Trading Outlook for August 2014 (Video Update)

• 12 Strategies I Use to Trade in a Low Volatility Market

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches - August Newsletter

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT August 1, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

SaaR KaL 19:52 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

way over rated
This like Chick Corea listening to Moddona
Please Bro

GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT August 1, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions


Click on chart for COT Details



Click on chart for COT Details

Paris ib 19:41 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

The big O.

C-Span

Paris ib 19:37 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

:-)

dc CB 18:59 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

actually we are the losers...with a big Ls on the forehead...because WTF are we doing even knowing that the O's giving a presser.

The Non-Losers are into the second martini, watching the ocean, from the deck on the house or on the yacht.

Crist it's Aug 1

Cheers

Paris ib 18:59 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

"Meanwhile, the US has promised to give $8 million to Ukraine to strengthen its porous border"..

8 million?

Entente?

Paris ib 18:54 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

CB - the thing is he comes across as TOTALLY disengaged. He doesn't take questions, seems totally disinterested. Mind you bear in mind the rest of the world has leaders of a similar ilk for the most part. Sad moment in history.

dc CB 18:53 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

It's so sad. this is all we've got to present to the world?

Paris ib 18:52 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

Progress on the Ukraine. Russia has already released a statement.

Ukraine

Paris ib 18:43 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak

At this point does anyone even like the guy?

GVI Forex john 18:25 GMT August 1, 2014
Obama to Speak
Reply   
Due in 10 mins but he usually does not show up on time.

Topic unannounced.

dc CB 18:02 GMT August 1, 2014
Today's Fairy Tale
Reply   
If you’re trying to persuade children or grandchildren to save rather than ordering them to do so, you could start with some simple numbers. If you take $5,000 in savings from a few summer jobs and put it in a Roth at age 19, it will grow to $52,006 by the time you’re 67 if it grows at a 5 percent annual rate. Wait until 25 to start with that same $5,000, however, and the balance at age 67 is just $38,808.

Things get more interesting, however, if you pledge that once a Roth is open, you’ll spend a few years helping a young adult max out the $5,500 contribution each year as long as that person earns the $5,500 necessary to make a deposit of that size. If that 19-year-old starts with $5,000 and makes the maximum contribution each year until 67, the ending balance is $1,164,985 if it grows at a 5 percent annual clip.

SLEEP TIGHT DON'T LET THE BEDBUGS BITE!

For Teenagers, Starting and Saving in a Roth I.R.A.

dc CB 17:40 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



We have been warning for a while that not only is the high-yield credit market sending a warning but that it is critical for equity investors to comprehend why this is such bad news.

This week has seen exuberant equity markets start to catch down to high-yield's warning but today's surge in HY credit spreads to six month wides is a rude awakening.

Between outflows, a huge wall of maturities (and no Fed liquidity), and corporate leverage, the reach-for-yield just became an up-in-quality scramble. HY spreads are over 70bps wider than cycle tights implying the S&P 500 should be around 1775. ZH

High-Yield Credit Crashes To 6-Month Lows As Outflows Continue

GVI Forex john 17:30 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.50% neutrality?

GVI Forex jay Meisler 17:29 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Deja vu for the bond bears

london red 16:57 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

just signs of 10 year topping. question will be whether 2.5 is regained and held on the close.
s&p bounced from top of my exp range 1894-1916. if doesnt extend past 1932 then risks further test to downside.

GVI Forex Blog 16:26 GMT August 1, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
•Geopolitical developments and Fed rate expectations to continue to buffer markets

•MPC policy to remain unchanged, but debate becoming more heated

•Euro area and US data watched for further signs of divergence

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - FRIDAY 1 AUGUST 2014

GVI Forex john 16:24 GMT August 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CH- PMI, CA- Holiday

    Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: CH- PMIs.
  • North America: CA- Holiday.


GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

not much of a blaze! lol

he has been lying low today...

dc CB 15:56 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Steve Liesman's Hair must be on fire

dc CB 15:54 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



HY
that escalated rapidly

dc CB 15:52 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



check out the 5ver...

GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2-yr 0.49% vs. 0.54% pre-data

btw this is a big move for that maturity.

Paris ib 15:41 GMT August 1, 2014
Is it going Pear Shaped?

"One can barely imagine the tectonic geopolitical repercussions were the false flag to be fully exposed."

Well actually you can imagine. Reset all right. But perhaps not the one Christine Lagarde was planning on.

Pepe Escobar

dc CB 15:40 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



still selling corp Debt

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Equity markets are off their lows after a miss on the NFP report today. The data put to bed speculation about an early rate hike. The data suggest that recent sluggish growth will persist. Some traders are talking about a "Goldilocks" market again. I don't see it! EURUSD is still pivoting the 1.3400 line on  weak Eurozone.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower following  U.S. data. Yields on the European periphery remain up. EZ 10-yr 1.14%, -4bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.56%  -6bp. UK Mfg PMI data were a disappointment  +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.51%, -5bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are ending weaker. .U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:31 GMT August 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Trading is pretty choppy this morning as participants evaluate the July jobs and PCE inflation data, but

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Jobs and Core PCE Data in Focus

Paris ib 15:24 GMT August 1, 2014
Is it going Pear Shaped?
Reply   
In the midst of the shifting sands of geopolitics.... plans are made but sometimes they go pear shaped. It still looks like there are plans to drag Russia into an open military confrontation but the casus belli might need to be tweeked. The chinless deviants running Europe haven't so much as said boo (I wonder what their swiss bank accounts look like). But still plans go wrong and information and analysis can't always be blocked. This saga is far from over. The Bay of Tonkin comes to mind. And it does nothing to enhance the status of the world's international reserve currency. In a FIAT money system without status you have nothing.

MH17 Again

dc CB 15:23 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Today, we find more of the same, when we learn that while the headline ISM of 57.1, seemingly the highest since April 2011 and driven by the all important New Orders print of 63.4 which was the highest since December 2013, was really a figment of seasonal adjustment.

The table below shows how the ISM takes its unadjusted, actual data, based on respondents saying whether the data is "better", "same" or "worse", and applies a seasonal adjustment factor, getting the adjusted number.

How The Worst New Orders Number In 6 Months Became The Highest Of 2014

SaaR KaL 15:22 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

IMO this 1.04 area is base for 30 weeks afterwards
tgt 1.2 for USDCAD
Any thoughts?
TIA

SaaR KaL 15:14 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD
seems wants to south for a good while
1.100 area to 1.04
in about 3 weeks

Livingston nh 15:08 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Treasurys back to safe haven trade into the w/e -- EU stox still on the back foot so we need to wait for close before US stox and USD pick a direction

london red 15:06 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

should bounce well at 2.5 john. if not then one mother of a dollar sell off coming. shouldnt happen, its just possible. my base view is 2.5 bounce.

GVI Forex john 14:59 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.516% -6.4bps back to 2.500%??

london red 14:50 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

first poss usd long yen and cad at 35 and 60 respectively. 10/20 for yen and 200 day ma cad are firmer supports.

dc CB 14:23 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wood Pallets is the only commodity reported in short supply

a while ago I wrote that my neighbor's pallet company is cranking them out 7 days a week.

london red 14:21 GMT August 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john watching your 200 hour and also 50 on swissy. euro at 13470 smacks a good sell. and as long as we come back down to 30/40 or lower would be ok for next (short). a close near highs if around 60/70 would set us up for a rebound to 135xx next week.

GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.540% -4bp

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

ISM Mfg beat estimates. Employment PMI improves. Mixed Markit and ISM readings, but both are at high levels.

NY JM 14:03 GMT August 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Data roulette continues...

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT August 1, 2014
June 2014 Construction Spending
Reply   





ALERT

-1.80% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.10% (r +0.80%) prev. rev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer




Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
Reply   



News ALERT

57.1 vs. 56.0 exp. vs. 55.3 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT August 1, 2014
Final July 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index

University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M data outperforms expectations. Data revised up slightly




london red 13:57 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI

chicago yest suggests some weakness but other surveys from july good

PAR 13:56 GMT August 1, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
Jobs report gives Yellen an alibi to keep rates lower for longer . Bad for mainstreet , good for wallstreet .

Of to the beach . Have a nice weekend .

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT August 1, 2014
Final July 2014 University of Michigan Sentiment Index
Reply   



ALERT
81.8 vs. 81.5 exp. vs. 81.3 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI

Another mild disappointment. ISM at the top of the hour matters more.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
Reply   



ALERT
55.8 vs. 56.3 exp. vs. 56.3 prelim

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Markit PMI Press Release

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:36 GMT August 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

100 hour mva that has traded below since mid-July broken (currently 1.3406) but upside capped so far by 200 hour mva (1.3432) -- as posted earlier in my daily outlook video.

GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Canada Markit PMI

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI stronger than expeected.



GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Canada Markit PMI
Reply   




ALERT
54.3 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

NY JM 13:28 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2-way risk restored for now? EURUSD 1,34 stays the focus as long as it trades 1,.3350-1.3450, stops more likely above the upper end but upside contained unless taken out. Still some more US data due.

SaaR KaL 13:27 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Will still short Cable
Near 1.6930

GVI Forex 13:24 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I would guess so.

london red 13:22 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

2.5 base john. you would think much of froth out by then.

SaaR KaL 13:18 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

eurgbp
might be flat for coming week
but over 3 weeks
we will 0.773 IMO

GVI Forex john 13:17 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.534%

dc CB 13:11 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



let's see how HY credit does today

SaaR KaL 13:09 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Good Choice red
AUDUSD will start a north rally into .98 area
0.9250 is a good entry

Mtl JP 13:09 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

CB 12:51 as insiders they have immunity. besides lots of them have stock in bomb makers and exporters. no recession or price-deflation there.

dc CB 13:08 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



Pretty clear line in the sand there.
I'm sure the BLS _we can make it any number you want just ask- boys, didn't need a phone call to figure that one out

Paris ib 13:04 GMT August 1, 2014
Fed Policy
Reply   
FED will be reluctant to do more than take baby steps towards tighter policy. Only financial markets can force their hand: say protracted USD weakness or a bond market rout. With nothing new expected from the FED the USD should see more selling in the short term.

london red 13:02 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

thats me flat. looking at aussie 9350 for short/put. price action for cable at 100 day ma, second bite of cherry. which is usually one too many. so scope for 16883 and 16910 if done again.
yen fancy longs a bit lower down with yields going poop.

SaaR KaL 12:57 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Long GBPCHF

Paris ib 12:55 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

3 year yield has dropped nearly 10 points.

SaaR KaL 12:55 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Shorts eurusd
Shorts EURGBP

GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.551% vs 2.583% pre-data.

dc CB 12:51 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

Stocks will sell off.

Janet and all her friends, the enitre US Congress will take big hits in their portfolios.

The Fed will reverse course to save the crumbling economy.

Paris ib 12:48 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

Makes you wonder though how the market is gonna react when we get into hiking proper.

Mtl JP 12:48 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI

john what - do u think - is the cause of the French PMI under 50 at 47.8 ?

I was in France for 4 days short while ago, I loaded up on 2-3dollar bottles of wine thinking it may help em with their economic activity reading. alas....

london red 12:48 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

not enough in data to turn dollar trend but profit taking possible. yen closed here. swissy left on will close under 70.

PAR 12:48 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

Or hyping Hurricanes .

london red 12:43 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

eurnzd hourly trendline 15735
eurgbp still firm

GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

So much for all the CNBC hype and hysteria. Maybe Steve Liesmann can get a job at the weather Channel hyping snow storms

Paris ib 12:42 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

It was a little worse than expected. Takes the sting out of the GDP numbers. Taper continues. Rates to rise in 2015. Big deal.

london red 12:41 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

thats the plan Chris but never know with profit taking and maybe slightly ahead of its self market. euro covered here. swissy and yen still on
watching kiwi 8505 for further sign.

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment


Monthly jobs U.S.


Employment data weaker than expected in line with ADP Report..






Click on chart for more than 10-yr history



dc CB 12:39 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

Da poifect number toose put da stop to dat slide.

too bad it's gonna rain in the Hamptons and be ony in the 70's

train leaves at 11, choppers off at 10

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT August 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

U.S. CPI and Core PCE Deflator. Fed Targets PCE Deflator. Still below target,

London Chris 12:38 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

relief, no more than that... imo

london red 12:37 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

look at flash highs, will indicate if further to go. swissy. yen. so far dips bought and bounced well.

PAR 12:35 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment

Bad news is good news .


Except problems in Ukraine , Gaza, Portugal , Argentina , Ebola and sanctions against Russia undermining the fondations of the world financial system as we know it .

Paris ib 12:33 GMT August 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator

Middle part of the curve is loving this.

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT August 1, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator
Reply   



ALERT
Personal Income +0.40% v +0.40% exp v +0.40% pre
PCE Defl +1.40% vs. +1.40% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Employment
Reply   



ALERT
NFP Jobs:+209K vs. +230K exp. vs. +288K (r 298K) prev.
Rate: 6.20% vs. 6.10% exp. vs. 6.10% prev.


BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 12:30 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I'm not sure the 10 year counts all that much. I prefer to watch the 2-5 year area.

GVI Forex john 12:28 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.583%

Paris ib 12:27 GMT August 1, 2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video

I think it all depends on how the bond market reacts. The massive sell off on the bond market following the GDP numbers paved the way for the sell off in stocks. But bonds have stabilised. So unless the number is way off estimates I'm not expecting a huge reaction this time round. We'll see. gl gt all

london red 12:21 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

canadian pmi also due which might initially get lost esp if nfp around exp. but a good pmi print will ensure dollar hampered above 10950/10960
if nfp around exp or slight beat, then risk of profit taking and bear traps for gbp nzd and aud. watch keys levels. if broken but retaken quickly might have bear trap rally.
a big beat fancies usdjpy higher abv 10315 res flash high maybe 10344.
on miss swissy down to 50/60 but youd be a buyer there stops under 40.
euro is likely to close abv 13370 unless v strong nfp.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:20 GMT August 1, 2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video

Good (economic) news now bad news for stocks?

FX market is not sure what to do although price action in GBP (and EURGBP) suggests liquidating market.

Paris ib 11:47 GMT August 1, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

No worries. But it would make things easier for the rest of us. :-))

Mtl JP 11:46 GMT August 1, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

ib me Friday lazy.. beg ur pardon

Paris ib 11:41 GMT August 1, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

Deleted BBC report on MH17.

The MH17 Mystery

Paris ib 11:38 GMT August 1, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

JP do u think u could master the 'link' thing? Just wack it in where you see URL: with a name of some kind above.

JP's link

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT August 1, 2014
Only 3 Days Left

what a surprise !
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/01/us-ukraine-crisis-yatseniuk-idUSKBN0G017620140801

so Nuland's guy yats stays on and IMF & world bank liberate $758 million to finance the military

interesting contrast with IMFs and WB's mission statements

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:23 GMT August 1, 2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video
Reply   
If you would like a copy of today's video, an important one, send me an EMAIL

GVI Forex john 10:29 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Australia PMI
Reply   






Earlier News ALERT
50.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. 48.9 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

AU PMI above 50,..

london red 10:13 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

eurnzd making fresh highs still supported by hourly trendline. fib at 15847 and 21 week at 15846 should cap into nfp.
nzdusd 200 day 50 fib 50% at 43, trendline 35. res 8505 8480

GVI Forex Blog 10:12 GMT August 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP/USD pair maintained a soft tone with it probing below its 100-day moving average at 1.6859 after softer PMI Manufactuiring data. Cable's recent 1-year bull trend being challenged. Dealers noted that a move below could trigger a more medium-term bearish signal,

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Already anxious investors await US payroll data

london red 09:43 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

AHE average hourly earnings

thanks sf, best trades to you too

sd sf 09:39 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

I agree with all of your thoughts -- from my side I trade vary little manually these days so I just monitor the positions more than anything and watch how the patterns develop.

eurusd wise I can see we are t/p selling @26/27/28 and probably 20 -30 points above that we would start getting short.

Anyways let us see how NFP plays out as right now it is bit tough to be initiating fresh positions.

BOL Today As Always >

HK Stephen 09:38 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

Red what does AHE mean?

london red 09:29 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

sf, eurusd is an interesting one. heard a lot about base building but no one is sticking their neck out yet. you can argue market is very short and few left to sell but crosses have been supporting this one. so while you can argue for a bounce you can also argue for a fall in this pair as cross rallies has pulled the basket as a whole higher. time will tell.
reaction to nfp will be interesting. they should still sell a miss as long as its c. 200k. and as long at 13445/50 caps. you can see market buying dollar dips until we get a few misses in a row. probably needs a +260 nfp to test barrier at 3350. AHE take on added importance today as well. if we dont get higher than 0.2 might be difficult to sustain dollar gains into close.

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT August 1, 2014
AceTrader Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Reply   

01 Aug 2014 08:00GMT

EUR/USD - ... Euro languishes abv Wed's 8-1/2 month trough of 1.3366 in European morning. Price showed muted reaction to release of Markit Jul mfg PMI fm Italy, France, Germany & the EZ. The actual readings came in below market consensus (except France, Jul was 47.8 vs forecast of 47.8).

The lack of intra-day price swings in early European morning suggest further range trading wud continue as traders are keeping their powder dry until release of the key U.S. payrolls data at 12:30GMT. Offers are reported at 1.3495/05 with some stops abv there, then more offers are tipped at 1.3420/30. On the downside, some bids are touted at 1.3370-60 with continued market chatter of an option barrier at 1.3350, then stops are reported below there. Until the U.S. jobs report is out, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

Earlier, with release of Markit Mfg PMI of several major countries in the EZ due out shortly, Reuters reported that inflationary pressures in the euro zone have risen to a 27-month high, suggesting the ECB's efforts to fend off deflation are working, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Fri.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), rose to 96.7 in June from April's 96.2.

Annual inflation in the euro zone fell to just 0.4% in Jul, its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, official data showed on Thur. Therefore, most traders wud take this reading with a pinch of salt !

PAR 09:26 GMT August 1, 2014
RUSSIA
Reply   
MSCI announced today the launch of new composite indexes that exclude Russia,such as MSCI ACWI ex Russia and MSCI Emerging Markets ex Russia

GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT August 1, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
Im looking more at S&P futures which have turned south in the past hour or so. (-8.5).

The USDJPY is trading about flat and is showing no correlation to the S&P.

I'm wondering if all this hysteria about a Fed tightening being fueled by the script readers in the media has gotten completely out of hand. They have become another version of the Weather Channel.

Personally, I feel a 25 to 100bp increase in the cost of money (from zero) over the next two years is not going to change a thing.

sd sf 09:15 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

thanks Red - it is just the GBP model taking profit from this morning - based purely on the typical range we see basically.

overall it has only been marginally profitable due to getting stopped a lot so can't argue with some decent points on the day.

the only thing we have on the books now is some eurusd long... everything else has been executed in the CAD and x CAD stuff.

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT August 1, 2014
China and European PMI Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US, CA- PMIs, US- NFP, Personal Income

Monthly U.S. employment data, Manufacturing PMIs and the final University of Michigan survey for July are featured today. A slew of final PMI reports have been released with Chinese data mixed. European PMIs were soft to mixed while UK manufacturing PMI data saw a major miss.

China and European PMI Data Mixed. Focus on U.S. Jobs Report

london red 09:07 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

sf, while 40 caps, risk to 76.4 fib at 16810. youd fancy that to support into nfp if seen. but sellers appeared at 40 and of course likely at the 100 day if seen pre nfp.
up to now eurgbp has retraced well off every res. worth watching at 55/60 as a failure to pull back to 40 suggests an acceleration of uptrend with a risk of 80 on a break today.

london red 09:04 GMT August 1, 2014
STOCK MARKETS

PAR if 1894-1900 doesnt yield a bounce to abv 1932 then we can look at a lot lower.
we trade in a market where moves are hyper accelerated. i refer back to goldmans statement a few months back that when the bond market starts pricing in a rate rise, historically it tends to happen (the bulk) of the move, over a period of a couple of months. thats a big move in a short space of time. i didnt see any reference to stocks, but possibly you could work a similar time frame.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT August 1, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Equity markets have sold off following the U.S. lead from yesterday. Markets remain in a mixed risk posture as credit markets in the U.S. have already priced in a Fed policy tightening. There is now a lot of room for disappointment on weaker than U.S,  jobs data in the months ahead  EURUSD is holding just below 1.3400.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. EZ 10-yr 1.18%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.62%  0bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still expected by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.58%, +2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe are weaker. . U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


sd sf 08:57 GMT August 1, 2014
Morning

just seeing t/p buying in the GBP 36/37/38

ntg more than estimated range I imagine.

Paris ib 08:57 GMT August 1, 2014
STOCK MARKETS

So then it is a mini crash !

Margin Debt

PAR 08:52 GMT August 1, 2014
STOCK MARKETS
Reply   
A 2% correction is not a mini crash , unless you are heavily margine.

london red 08:38 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

pmi misses 100 day ma at 58 now caps into nfp. 40 flash low was supp.
close below 100 day brings 168-167 in play.

GVI Forex john 08:37 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Manufacturing PMI

U.K. Manufacturing PMI much weaker than forecast. Supports our ecent view that UK might be starting to slow ...

GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Japan final PM


EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. Second-tier release but revised lower...

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Manufacturing PMI
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

55.4 vs. 57.2 exp. vs. 57.5 (r 57.2) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:28 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 Japan final PM
Reply   




EARLIER NEWS ALERT
50.5 vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 51.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 08:27 GMT August 1, 2014
Is it safe?

dc CB 00:52 for an answer to your headline Q see PAR's 07:49 post

GVI Forex john 08:26 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 China PMI's

China PMIs mixed.

london red 08:23 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

eurgbp 21 day 7923 10 day 7913. res 40 and 55/60

GVI Forex john 08:21 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 China PMI's
Reply   




EARLIER: China PMI's
NBS: 51.7 vs. 51.3 exp vs. 51.0 prev.
HSBC: 51.7 vs. 51.9 exp. vs. 52.0 flash


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 08:09 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades

uk manf pmi due up at bottom of hour. f/c are mixed but circled around 57.2. we are currently in a dollar market so use any bounce in pmi to 58 to sell cable. fib at 83 may give on a better number but 80 day ema at 16909 should cap any rally into the non farms this afta. whatever the number cable will be under pressure and 100 day is at risk again today.

GVI Forex john 08:09 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI

EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. Eurozone and, Germany revised down from flash estimates. France Revised higher. Broadly Europe has gone flat?..



GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT August 1, 2014
July 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
Reply   




ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
51.8 vs. 51.9 (flash) exp. vs. 51.9
France
47.8 vs. 47.6 (flash) exp. vs. 47.6
Germany
52.4 vs. 52.9 (flash) exp. vs. 52.9


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 07:55 GMT August 1, 2014
FRANCE
Reply   
French manufacturing deteriorates further.

PAR 07:49 GMT August 1, 2014
SBERBANK
Reply   
SBERBANK says financial sanctions against Russia undermining the foundations of the global financial system.

SaaR KaL 06:41 GMT August 1, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Next 3 Trade days
Expected High and Lows


EURUSD
Exp High Exp Low
1.3388 1.3357 --> today
1.3363 1.3335
1.3336 1.3296

Cable
Exp High Exp Low
1.6917 1.6856
1.6896 1.6846
1.6851 1.6800

USDJPY
Exp High Exp Low
103.26 102.59
103.11 102.58
102.70 102.26

Gold
Exp High Exp Low
1302.09 1284.28
1295.79 1285.04
1282.42 1268.62

GBPJPY
Exp High Exp Low
174.41 173.48
173.71 173.15
172.68 172.04

EURJPY
Exp High Exp Low
138.11 137.67
137.38 136.93
136.68 136.20


GVI Forex Blog 05:07 GMT August 1, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA JULY FINAL HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 52.0E (18-month high) - (CN) CHINA JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 51.4E (5th consecutive rise; highest since Apr 2012) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 PPI Q/Q

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China PMIs mixed as Asia digests the sharp decline on Wall St - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:01 GMT August 1, 2014 Reply   
The exact reason for the mini crash in the US market last night is largely unknown. From the

Morning Briefing : 01-Aug-2014 -0400 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT August 1, 2014
AceTrader Aug 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

01 Aug 2014 02:22GMT

China July's final HSBC Mfg PMI came in at 51.7 vs previous preliminary reading of 52.0.

Reuters reported China's vast factory sector posted its strongest growth in 18 months in Jul as new orders surged to multi-month highs, a private survey showed on Friday, adding to signs the economy is regaining momentum after a flurry of govt. stimulus measures.

The HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 last month, up from June's 50.7 but slightly below a preliminary reading of 52.

Still, July's reading is the best outcome since January 2013. Output and total new orders both rose at the strongest rates since March 2013, while new export work increased at the 2nd-fastest pace in more than 3-1/2 years.

Friday will see the release of China’s NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia’s PPI, Japan’s manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI final, U.S. unemployment rate, Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, PCE price index, private payrolls and non-farm payrolls, University of Michigan consumer confidence and ISM manufacturing PMI.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:16 GMT August 1, 2014
China
Reply   
MNI: CFLP CHINA JULY PMI 51.7 VS MNI MEDIAN 51.4; JUNE 51.0

dc CB 00:52 GMT August 1, 2014
Is it safe?

The stock market ended July with the sharpest decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index since April, while the Dow Jones industrial index fell more than 300 points, enough to eliminate all of its gains for the year.
The reasons for the losses on Thursday were not entirely clear.

“I think it’s healthy and normal at this stage of the monetary cycle,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “After the run-up in the market we’ve had until now, I’d expect that we’d have a real correction. Whether this is the beginning of one, I don’t know, but I think it would be very healthy to have one. And a decline like this one? It’s O.K. to have it.”

Sometimes market declines are simply irrational, even if they’re not unexpected, said Richard Bernstein, formerly the chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch and now the proprietor of his own firm and a fund manager for Eaton Vance.

“People have heard a lot about the possibility that we’re on the precipice of a correction, and they’ve gotten a little jittery,” he said. “That happens sometimes when there’s a confluence of geopolitical and economic factors, and people are on edge. But I’ve been bullish and I remain so. We’ll just have to find out in the weeks ahead who’s right and who’s wrong.

Markets End July in Dive, but Analysts Are Upbeat

GVI Forex Blog 00:19 GMT August 1, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index hovers near 10-month peak after rally

* Nonfarm payrolls data next major focus

* China PMI to take centre stage in Asia

FOREX-Dollar pauses near highs ahead of jobs data

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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