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Forex Forum Archive for 08/04/2014

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GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT August 4, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   


August 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia, EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders

  • Far East: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Europe: EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders, API


GVI Forex john 20:45 GMT August 4, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

TUESDAY AUGUST 5, 2014
AU Trade
AU
Australia Reserve Bank
DE SVC PMI final
EZ SVC PMI final
GB SVC PMI
US Markit SVC PMI final
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6, 2014
US Factory Orders
US ISM SVC PMI
CH CPI
CA Trade 
US Trade
THURSDAY AUGUST 7, 2014
AU Employment
GB Bank of England
EZ Europe Cntl Bank
US Initial Claims
CA Ivey PMI
FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p

Syd 20:37 GMT August 4, 2014
Shadow MPC in favour of early UK interest rate rises
Reply   

The IEA Shadow MPC recommended a rise in Bank Rate by 50bps in August. Of those favouring a rise, five voted for an immediate rise of 0.50% but one member (David Smith) wanted a lesser rise of 0.25%. All those who voted to raise rates expressed a bias to raise rates further. One of those who voted to hold rates (Roger Bootle) had a bias to increase rates in the near future.
The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) is a group of independent economists, which has met once a quarter since July 1997 at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) to monitor the MPC’s Bank Rate decisions, and to make rate recommendations of its own.
Let’s hope Carney & Co aren’t easily scared by their shadows but there appears to be a growing consenus that the hawks will start to strut their stuff this week.
“MPC rebels set to break Bank consensus on interest rates,” was the Sunday Times headline yesterday, saying a “minority of monetary policy committee members are expected to vote for a rate rise” this week
The countdown to the first rise begins in earnest this month but I’m not expecting any hikes til early next year and preferably Q2 for the sake of the UK recovery and householders

Syd 20:35 GMT August 4, 2014
Mizuho concerned about risks from ECB stress tests after Banco Espirito Santo bailout
Reply   
Roger Francis is an analyst at Mizuho and he’s worried about the speed that BES went from announcing problems to the Bank of Portugal stepping in with the resolution fund. He points to the BRRD and ECB’s comprehensive bank assessments that assume there would be enough time for capital reconstruction in cases like this and says that the BES case shows that this may not be the case.
On the whole he sees the current action by the BoP as a positive both for senior debt holders who have been spun of with the good part of the bank.
This issue is going to really bring more attention on the bank tests and reviews and people are going to question whether they are going to be enough to stop problems like this. As CreditPhil noted earlier in the comments it may be that the tests wouldn’t have highlighted this problem anyway. If that’s the case then they’re going to be half useless as a protective tool.

Mtl JP 19:50 GMT August 4, 2014
Did MarketWatch go LOCO ?

I am not convinced that a 30yr mortgage albatross (dressed up as "American Dream" of pursuit of house ownership) peddled by overlords making it tax-advantageous and propagandized as "one of the best life-long investments" one can make is in some DNA. The recent lessons of the mendacious parade are hard to ignore.

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT August 4, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:30 GMT August 4, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




Livingston nh 19:24 GMT August 4, 2014
Did MarketWatch go LOCO ?

JP - in response to "soft" NFP I responded Sat AM to some things (home ownership, et al ) but lost in cyberspace -- mostly political so i'll put something there -- re: stevens seems another "this time it's different", JOHN may have the better spot re: our DNA and home ownership

Livingston nh 19:08 GMT August 4, 2014
STOX

OK - stox are above Friday hi - away from treasurys FI is still shaky - yen still 103.25 (last close on 1.04 print), EUR holding above the monthly breakdown level, cable still subject to gilt spread -- who calls the tune?

Mtl JP 19:08 GMT August 4, 2014
STOX

nh 18:42 what if "scoundrelship" is the new norm
see my 18:12 Bottom Line clarification

Livingston nh 18:42 GMT August 4, 2014
STOX
Reply   
SPX trying to break above Friday AM high - but the fickle yen is still following the 10 yr treasury // every market seems to be looking around trying to find direction

Confusion is the last refuge of scoundrels

Mtl JP 18:12 GMT August 4, 2014
Did MarketWatch go LOCO ?

is this a MarketWatch effort to screw with folks' minds ?

Banks see loan demand picking up: Fed survey

this one is by some Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Banks are seeing a broad-based pickup in loan demand, a Federal Reserve survey released Monday showed. The survey of 75 domestic and 23 foreign banks operating in the U.S. shows that banks are continuing to ease standards for various commercial and industrial loans. The Fed's senior loan officer survey shows that big banks have eased standards on credit card. The July survey also shows that new qualified mortgage rules has reduced approval rates on applications for prime jumbo home-purchase loans and nontraditional mortgages. A special question found that mortgage standards remain tighter than in 2005.
-
Bottom Line
the way to get a loan henceforth is to make oneself appear like a commerce / industrialist for whom loan standards allegedly have eased. then by some accounting trickery, compensate oneself and buy that house for which "mortgage standards remain tighter than in 2005"
Bingo: contribute to GDP and housing recovery.

Livingston nh 18:10 GMT August 4, 2014
France Challenges U.S. Fines

JP - then doomed we are, doomed -- for the record NATO should have gone out of business 20 yrs ago but every bureaucracy must expand or die

GVI Forex Blog 18:10 GMT August 4, 2014
The Data Calendar For The Week Opens Up Tuesday. Immediate Fed Policy Tightening Less Likely
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia, EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision is due on Tuesday. No rate changes are expected. That session also sees a slew of Services PMIs from Europe and the U.S.

The Data Calendar For The Week Opens Up Tuesday. Immediate Fed Policy Tightening Less Likely

Mtl JP 18:01 GMT August 4, 2014
France Challenges U.S. Fines

nH ... something is up: stephen harper, who curently passes for Canadian PM, has disconnected his following Homer Simpson in his twitter acct

Livingston nh 17:49 GMT August 4, 2014
France Challenges U.S. Fines

JP - on the anniversary of WWI start-up -- Germany has in mind the old Roman Philosopher who coined the phrase "3 strikes and you're out"

Mtl JP 17:41 GMT August 4, 2014
France Challenges U.S. Fines

the simple premise is that, like India, Europe does NOT need the US and its schemes and machinations.

The German would do well to seize US military assets, keep some hostages and demand its Gold be delivered morgen und schnel. Then send US and its military bases packing.
-
Want evidence?
Bundesbank, PBOC in Pact to Turn Frankfurt Into Renminbi Hub - Bloomberg Businessweek, March 28

Bank of England and People's Bank of China Agree on London Yuan, Clearing Hub, International Business Times, April 14

China and Russia Ink $400 Billion Gas Deal, USA Today, May 21

Russia considers yuan, ruble for Chinese gas deals - UPI, June 26

China to Set Yuan Clearing Bank in Sydney, Australia - Channel News Asia, June 26

China signs yuan accords with France, Luxembourg, The Bull.Asia, June 30

South Korea, China Agree to Direct Trade in National Currencies - RT July 4

China Signs Currency Deals, Except in the U.S. - Wall Street Journal, July 10

Credit: Doug Wakefiled, Best Minds Inc.

dc CB 17:23 GMT August 4, 2014
USA Homeownership



*GM RECEIVED SUBPOENA BY U.S. DOJ
*GM SUBPOENA RELATED TO SUBPRIME AUTOMOBILE LOAN CONTRACTS
*GM FINL: SUBPOENA ALSO FOR WARRANTIES ON UNDERWRITING CRITERIA

G.M. Unit Receives Subpoena Over Subprime Auto Loans

Mtl JP 17:18 GMT August 4, 2014
USA Homeownership

PAR 17:07 // don't mistake generational - i.e. between old and young - values gap and shift for inability to afford and let new "in" thing pass you by.

search the Archive for "Sara Stevens" to maybe discover what she and her contemporaries may mean to your grand strategizing. (“The world has changed”)

PAR 17:07 GMT August 4, 2014
USA Homeownership
Reply   
Home ownership dropping as youg americans can no longer affore to buy a house .

Inflation figures dont take account of house prices. As they dont account for food and energy prices .

Why then calculate inflation figures if they dont reflect reality and dont help the young americans ?

Hong Kong Qindex 17:00 GMT August 4, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3426
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:



EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3426


As shown in the weekly cycle significant levels (see the front page of qindex.com) the market is stable when it is able to close above the barriers at 1.3443 // 1.3452 in the New York session. In the mean time EUR/USD is trapped in the expected range of 1.3378 - 1.3452.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

GVI Forex john 16:43 GMT August 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.48% not much happening

However
EURUSD slowly slipping. 1.3400 back in play.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:03 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

EUR is the underperformer today and down on all of its crosses in this tight range day.

Paris ib 15:52 GMT August 4, 2014
Ukraine - A deal between Germany and Russia?

From official sources: "Russia is the third trading partner of the EU and the EU is the first trading partner of Russia."


Russia's Trading Partners

So we have this little MH17 investigation underway: recent reports suggest that the Ukraine fight authorities diverted the aircraft directly over Rebel Territory, escorted the plane with military jets and the MH17 wreckage has signs of having been hit by machine gun fire. On the other hand we have very large economic interests which tie Russia to the EU and we have a supposed peace deal being worked out between Russia and Germany. Angela Merkel apparently speaks fluent Russian.

Bit of an interesting situation.

Germany's Trading Partners

Paris ib 15:40 GMT August 4, 2014
Ukraine - A deal between Germany and Russia?

"While Russia isn’t Germany’s largest trading partner, not anywhere near, it is important. In 2013, German exports to Russia had already dropped over 5% to €36.1 billion, triggered by the economic downturn in Russia. So the 17% plunge this year on top of last year’s drop would amount to a 22% swoon from the halcyon days of 2012. And now there are worries about the 300,000 jobs in Germany that depend on this trade with Russia."

I love how statistics get bandied about.

Russia and Germany

GVI Forex john 15:40 GMT August 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Fixed Income markets remin generally higher (lower yields),We usually  associate this  with a risk-off posture. U.S. employment data on Friday proved once again to be a disappointment. It appears that a short-term interest rate hike might be off the table for a while. EURUSD  still pivots the 1.3400 line.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are steady to  lower. Yields on the European periphery are down. EZ 10-yr 1.14%, 0bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.54%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.48%, -2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mixed as well. .U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


LA dv 15:36 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

Is anybody trading the jpy? it seems hostage to the correlation trade.

GVI Forex Blog 15:33 GMT August 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
European indices were seeing modest gains and US traders came to their desks, thanks to some decent economic data out of Spain and the UK, plus news that Portugal would bail out BES. US markets sustained positive momentum through the first 40 minutes of trade before markets turned south

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Early Rally Gets Case of the Mondays

Paris ib 15:15 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

The question is is this peace deal in the Ukraine likely and does that make this moment a buying opportunity for stocks? The first part of the question is the real key. Is there a peace deal in the offing?? Despite the hype in the Anglo-Saxon press? Given the money and trade which is at stake here I wouldn't be surprised but I'd sure like to find out where these peace negotiations are at.

NY JM 14:58 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

Stocks give back earlier gains and in red, 10-year at 2.473%, fx still confused, JPY gains on risk off

Paris ib 14:51 GMT August 4, 2014
Ukraine - A deal between Germany and Russia?

"Reaching a solution to the ongoing dispute is pertinent for the Germans as Russia is their single biggest trading partner."

and since Germany is important for the EU I would assume all the chinless deviants will get on board asap.

Secret Russian German Peace Deal

GVI Forex Blog 14:51 GMT August 4, 2014 Reply   
August 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia, EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 4, 2014

Paris ib 14:47 GMT August 4, 2014
Ukraine - A deal between Germany and Russia?

"insiders who are party to the discussions said yesterday that the “German peace plan is still on the table and the only deal around. Negotiations have stalled because of the MH17 disaster but they are expected to restart once the investigation has taken place.”" Thursday 31 July

So if the MH17 turns out to be a false flag (which looks likely) then the peace deal goes ahead.... and the implications are? A stronger Euro? A bounce back in European stock markets?

Peace Deal?

GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT August 4, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia, EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders

  • Far East: AU- Trade, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Europe: EZ. DE, FR- Service PMI, EZ- Retail Sales.
  • North America: US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders, API


Paris ib 14:43 GMT August 4, 2014
Ukraine - A deal between Germany and Russia?
Reply   
"As reported in the Independent, a "peace plan" for Ukraine being discussed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to stabilize Ukraine's borders and boost the country economically, with an energy agreement to ensure gas supplies."

Does anyone have any information about this or even about this person Chris Cook? If any of it is true it could have interesting implications.

Peace Plan

Paris ib 14:39 GMT August 4, 2014
France Challenges U.S. Fines
Reply   
"France has gathered support to challenge recent heavy U.S. penalties on foreign banks at a G20 meeting of world leaders..... U.S. authorities fined French bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) a record $8.9 billion last month for breaking U.S. sanctions against Sudan, Cuba and Iran over a 10-year period up to 2012."

So the U.S.-Europe alliance is not as strong as it seems. It will be interesting to see how this plays out with regard to sanctions against Russia which are clearly harming European business interests..... and the Euro. It still looks to me like the current world hegemony is going pear shaped. When it comes to money even the best of friendships can fray.

France challenges fines

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:44 GMT August 4, 2014
Ask Your Advocate: Are Binary Options Right for Me?
Reply   
My latest article about binary options and whether they are a good alternative to forex trading.

Ask Your Advocate: Are Binary Options Right for Me?

Mtl JP 12:55 GMT August 4, 2014
Did MarketWatch go LOCO ?

Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch at it again

Aug. 4, 2014 Americans are still not swiping their credit cards
-
not sure why he is harping at it - it is not like Americans will do a 180 turn overnite when it comes to swiping their credit cards and start spending money they don t have like drunk sailors

NY JM 12:40 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook

Forex market has no clue what to do today and no news to create movement.

Stocks starting out in the green, US 10 yr still around 2.50% and fx pairs so far having inside days

PAR 12:33 GMT August 4, 2014
Suspicious Package
Reply   
Hearing - U.S. Secret Service & Police have closed part of #Pennsylvania Avenue in #Washington due to a suspicious package!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:14 GMT August 4, 2014
Monday's Trading Outlook
Reply   
Let me know if you would like access to our videos on a regular basis:



Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video Update

Typical Monday start, EURUSD currently trapped within 1.3400-45, so far 3-day pattern trading at 1.34 has not been extended.
<

GVI Forex john 12:12 GMT August 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.496% +1.6bp

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:13 GMT August 4, 2014
gv chartpoints

JP, check your IM

Mtl JP 11:12 GMT August 4, 2014
gv chartpoints
Reply   
Pivot
eurdlr 1.3416
usdyen 102.65
gbpusd 1.6843 - most likely pony to run on short side
usdcad 1.0918 - 1.0950 still on radar

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:46 GMT August 4, 2014
August Newsletter
Reply   
Two very timely articles in this month's newsletter

- Forex Trading Outlook for the August 2014

- 12 Strategies I Use to Trading in a Low Volatility Market

August Newsletter - Thoughts from the Forex Trenches

GVI Forex Blog 10:18 GMT August 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX markets were steady in quiet trade on Monday. Thin August market conditions has historically seen 'erratic price action'. EUR/USD pair was holding above the 1.34 handle despite the bailout of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo and rekindling of memories of the Euro Zone's banking crisis

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Spain July Net Unemployment falls for the 6th straight month but clear slowdown in its pace

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT August 4, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Fixed Income markets are generally higher (lower yields) to start the new week, which is generally associated with a risk-off posture. U.S. employment data on Friday proved once again to be a disappointment. It appears that the of  a short-term interest rate hike might be off the table for a while once again. EURUSD is still pivoting the 1.3400 line on  weak Eurozone.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower following  U.S. data. Yields on the European periphery are lower. EZ 10-yr 1.13%, -1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.54%  -2bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.49%, -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Bourses in Europe are mixed as well. .U.S. share futures are higher.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Porto Cubriclas 08:35 GMT August 4, 2014
Banco Espirito Santo

PAR thats your personal opinion correct?

PAR 08:10 GMT August 4, 2014
Banco Espirito Santo

Portugese and European regulatory authorities sleeping at the wheel . Portugese financial authorities have been not telling the truth for months .

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:39 GMT August 4, 2014
AceTrader Aug 4: Daily Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD
Reply   
Daily Market Moving New and Views

04 Aug 2014 03:20GMT

GBP/USD - ... For those news browsers in quiet Asian session, U.K. Telegraph reported Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London is to back a report that claims leaving the EU would be better than staying if PM David Cameron fails to negotiate reforms.

The report estimates that the UK leaving the EU wud be far fm catastrophic for the capital, n better than staying if Britain's position in the organisation is not renegotiated.

The Mayor is on Wed set to outline an eight-point plan for reform of the EU, setting out the way in which the UK should renegotiate its place in the union. He will outline the points in a speech at Bloomberg's London offices, focusing on the UK's future relationship with Europe. At next May's general election, Europe is likely to be a crucial battle ground.

Earlier the pound languishes near Fri's fresh 6-week low of 1.6812 in subdued Asian trading on Mon. Despite staging a brief short-covering rebound to 1.6862 after U.S. Jul payrolls' increase was below market forecast n unemployment increased by 0.1%, sellers quickly emerged n cable later ratcheted lower back to 1.6818 near NY close.

The narrow movement in Asia is expected to continue until release of U.K. Jun construction PMI. Cable rec'd renewed bashing on Fri after U.K. mfg PMI came in well below the lowest forecast n fell to 55.4 fm 57.2 in June (its lowest level since July 2013). If today's construction PMI is below market consensus, then expect another round of selling to emerge. Even if the reading beats forecast, sterling bears will continue to sell the pound on intra-day rally. Bids are noted at 1.6815/05 with stops reported below 1.6800, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.6850/60 n more abv with stops touted above 1.6990/95.

PAR 06:56 GMT August 4, 2014
Banco Espirito Santo
Reply   
Mens sana in corpore sano .

Maybe they should change the name asap and at least drop Santo .

Syd 06:03 GMT August 4, 2014
Source TradeTheNews.com GBP
Reply   
(UK) Former BoE inflation hawk Sentance reiterates that the process of rate normalization should start earlier - Cites factors including better than expected labor market and strong growth. - Suggests early rate hikes allow the normalization process to be more gradual. - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 06:00 GMT August 4, 2014 Reply   
- (CN) CHINA JULY NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.2 V 55.0 PRIOR (6-month low; 2nd consecutive decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% (5-month high) V 0.3%E; Q2 RETAIL SALES EX INFLATION Q/Q:

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Portugal bails out BES; China non-manufacturing PMI slows - Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 05:57 GMT August 4, 2014
Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
ISIS forces capture Mosul Dam (largest in Iraq) from Kurds giving them the ability to flood several major Iraqi cities - press - Also seized 3 oilfields from Kurds over weekend - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:53 GMT August 4, 2014 Reply   
The US NFP data released last Friday appeared to disappoint but on closer scrutiny, it looks

Morning Briefing : 04-Aug-2014 -0353 GMT

sd sf 01:58 GMT August 4, 2014
Forex News

the thing with eur/usd is every 50 point rally people will sell it

+ people who buy dips will exit on every rally.

So it is really hard to bet just 1 direction at the moment - IMO

Also last week someone posted an article saying FX volume is down 10% - sucking some liquidity from the market as well

Really the ECB will have to signal one way or the other to change that choppy style of trading... where one day it is bid and the next it is offered.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:55 GMT August 4, 2014
AceTrader Aug 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

04 Aug 2014 01:12GMT

EUR/USD - .... News over the weekend worth noting, Bloomberg reported that 'Portugal's central bank took control of Banco Espirito Santo SA in a 4.9 billion-euro ($6.6 billion) bailout that will leave junior bondholders with losses.

'The full contribution of shareholders and of subordinated debt holders to the losses of Banco Espirito Santo will be ensured in accordance with the burden sharing rules' set out in 2013, the European Commission said in a statement on Sunday as it approved the plan.

Subordinated bonds have been hit by European regulators seeking to share the cost of resolving distressed banks with bondholders, with losses inflicted on holders of junior debt of lenders including Britain? Co-Operative Bank Plc and Spain's Bankia SA. (BKIA).

Banco Espirito Santo has 457 million euros of Tier 1 bonds, its most junior debt securities, and 853 million euros of more-senior Tier 2 bonds, making a total of about 1.3 billion euros, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The lender has 13.5 billion euros of senior bonds and 4.63 billion euros of secured notes outstanding. All in all, it has 20.4 billion euros of bond debt outstanding, the data show.

Banco Espirito Santo is 20 percent owned by Espirito Santo Financial Group, part of a chain of companies linked to the bank? founding family. The lender? largest outside shareholders include France? Credit Agricole SA (ACA), owner of a 14.6 percent stake, as well as Brazil? Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4), which has a 3.9 percent holding.

Banco Espirito Santo shares slumped 67 percent in July as three parent companies linked to the Espirito Santo family requested protection from creditors and concern grew that the bank may have to inject additional capital into its Angola unit.
Vitor Bento, who will be Novo Banco's chief executive officer, said the decision removes key uncertainties around the bank and the lender is now stronger and safer than before, according to a statement.


Next week will see the release of Australia’s retail sales, Swiss PMI, UK Markit CIPS Cons PMI, Eurozone producer prices, U.S. iSM New York index on Monday.

Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSbC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods, and factory orders on Tuesday.

New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance on Wednesday.

Australia’s unemployment rate, Swiss consumer confidence, German industrial output, Bank of England rate decision, eurozone rate decision, Canada’s Ivy PMI and building permit on Thursday.

Japan’s current account, Australia’s housing finance, China’s export, import and trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, German import, export and trade balance, U.K. trade balance, Canada’s unemployment rate, U.S. productivity, wholesale sales and inventories on Friday.

dc CB 01:46 GMT August 4, 2014
Forex News

* Euro squeezes higher, but wary as ECB policy meeting looms


oh wait

oh wait

becuz it doz not

it falls

update at

midnight

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:39 GMT August 4, 2014
Australia
Reply   
MNI: AUSTRALIA JUNE RETAIL SALES +0.6% M/M; MNI MEDIAN +0.3%

MNI: AUSTRALIA Q2 RETAIL SALES %-0.2 Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN -0.7%

dc CB 01:09 GMT August 4, 2014
Fun with Covers
Reply   
remember "Portfoio Insurance"

Barron's Cover

Livingston nh 00:51 GMT August 4, 2014
morning

From WSJ online -
"Reflecting the cautious mind set, some portfolio managers are selling riskier bonds and replacing them with safer ones because of concern about market liquidity, or the capacity to quickly buy or sell securities at or near quoted prices. Many investors say liquidity is drying up as the Fed pares its monthly stimulus and large banks trim their bond inventories.

Investors pulled more than $5 billion in July from U.S. junk-bond mutual and exchange-traded funds, according to Lipper, a fund tracker, deepening the liquidity fears and adding to concern that the recent selloff could intensify.

“Everyone is hoping to be first through the exit,” said Matt King, global head of credit strategy at Citigroup Inc. C -1.66% in London. “By definition, that’s not possible.” "

GVI Forex Blog 00:43 GMT August 4, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar nurses losses after jobs data disappoints bulls

* Euro squeezes higher, but wary as ECB policy meeting looms

* Aussie dollar eyes retail sales ahead of RBA policy review

FOREX-After stellar July, dollar off to pedestrian start in August

dc CB 00:36 GMT August 4, 2014
not a naively heated forum

Cbj Jake 20:42 GMT August 3, 2014
not a naively heated forum: Reply
dcCB.

=================================================
this is full on ZeroHedge...for some perspective

When President Obama explained so eloquently on Friday that the US "tortured some folks," we got an eery sense of deja vu about his phrasing.

Sure enough, as The Washington Post reports, it
was very much not the first time that he'd used the word "folks."

Anyway, the point is: Folks contain multitudes. Source: The Washington Post

Livingston nh 00:31 GMT August 4, 2014
morning

Treasury's reverted to safe haven trade into the weekend but many of the lesser grades continued to suffer as has been pointed out here -- so today we should get a better signal about market intentions // the NFP was a victim of the curse of rising expectations -- prior month revisions were higher and the participation rate boosted the unemployment rate -- John's chart shows six month avg at highs (been a better predictor than ADP)

Fed always panics

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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