Mtl JP 23:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Fed's forward guidance
Reply
Fed on track for earlier rate rise, Fisher says
Aug 5 (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official known for his hawkish policy views said Tuesday the Fed is on track for an earlier rate rise than he and his colleagues had forecast just a few months ago.
"I think the committee, as I listen to them and I can only speak for myself around that table during two days of discussion, is coming in my direction, so I didn't feel the need to dissent," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Fox Business Network.
"We are going to have to move the date of liftoff further forward than had been projected the last time we issued the 'dots'" he said, referring to the official Fed forecasts for short-term interest rates, last issued in June.
Fisher said that if his colleagues do not continue to move in the direction of tightening monetary policy, "I will dissent."
london red 22:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning
re fonterra auction earlier. prices down again but volumes up over 30%.
200 day stops just being run now but 43 should hold into jobs report
sd sf 21:35 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning
Reply
GBP
stops @1.6910 - seems downside is only 73-75 in short term
EUR
t/p bids @68/69/70
EurCad + GbpCad - no orders this morning
NZD looks like a real stop hunt this morning on these figures - GBPNZD seems the play on the day.
Overall not so much risk on the book at this time.
london red 20:56 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
john, c. 1.20 seen 3 times since all time high but no monthly close below it. 12129 is 50% of high low post 2000, while the 38.2% comes in at an interesting 1.3051 area.
now if we managed to get anywhere near those levels and bunds yields still low i will take my hat off to those germans as having a weak currency but low borrowing rates (for them) was the plan all along.
SaaR KaL 20:47 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
too far John
is perfect
1.32ish to 1.35
slow down for 7 weeks...should confirm 1.46 IMO
The EURUSD will slow down to do a base
london red 20:43 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi
def some good gbp buying today. cable impressively shook off US ism and reverse throughout afta to close near highs. decent tail on this daily candle suggest intent to test 80 day ema and if broken 16940/50. clearing 16890 if the signal for a run at the 80 ema. cant decide whether top will be c. 16950 or c. 17050 before 16810 test/break. clearly dollars are in demand but uk data is going to give plenty of upside risk.
todays candle shows intent is there, a couple of beats tomorrow should see the 80 ema taken but the data is ip and mp, both youd expect to show further signs of suffering from strong pound and now russia. the bar is low after last months misses but these aren't easy beats unlike todays services, a uk stronghold and 70 odd % of gdp. that said, sterling and the uk economy made light work of these kind of situations a couple of months back.
euro, i made my views clear earlier, in short downside is hampered pre draghi. and afer draghi, you usually get some covering even if the following move is lower.
SaaR KaL 20:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
JP
I am with you 100% onUSDCAD
1.10 to 1.11
corrects back to 1.04
then does the long term job...for 1.2
GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
I think we get to 1.3000 soon. 1.2000 could be a bridge too far?
SaaR KaL 20:38 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi
No one is sleeping good for a week
I just know it
things are on a major reveals
and everyone is really not sure...so stress goes up a little
heheheh
Someone is sniffin something
Mtl JP 20:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
gv chartpoint usdcad 200dma still playing
now that the 1.0950 FIB retrace theory got validated, next trgt after 1.0959 holds should be 1.10
IF... if 1.10 prints, some pullback would be likely
SaaR KaL 20:33 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi
Red
EURUSD and Cable
What do you think?
I got 1.66 cable into 1.8 for a long time before 1.55
london red 20:30 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi
Reply
unemployment and extras up later. think market will look for an excuse to sell rally here. think figures are initially going to be a boost for nzd but suspect plenty lined up to cap at 8505-20. i suspect we will see the 200 day ma broken before any meaningful bounce. think support at 8400 (fib 8443 break targets) holds for a 1 figure plus bounce but have to get there pretty directly.
SaaR KaL 20:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
John
what do you think?
1.46 before 1.2
or Visa Versa?
TIA
SaaR KaL 20:27 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
JM
This is Hard...so hard
I do my best... along comes my ego and distractions
which is cool for me and many
We all try
SaaR KaL 20:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
JM
well said
Just depends which one will happen first
I have 1.20...not disagreeing
but not before 1.46
the same with aapl
I am going on and on that will crash to 80
Now I know why i why i have great levels
but they do not happen in the sequence that I like
LOL
IMO 1.31 to 146...then 1.2
But again... i could be wrong
still i learn or try.. ;)
london red 19:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
btw re yellen, here first slip up was just that, a freudian slip. she now knows not to say what she thinks. 6 months it will be i reckon from end qe.
london red 19:35 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
you're always going to get that support for bonds, but now selling rallies isnt seen as being as fruitless as 6 months ago. we all new the threat was coming but i think once we get within that 6 months from rate rise window, i cant see us being to far below the 3.0.
but nearer term, august play, can see a shs building and think half a point caps us before another attempt to bottom of range for the 10.
Mtl JP 19:32 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
Jay share some of the comedy plz - tia
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
Bubblevision is comical trying to explain weakness in stocks.
GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
U.S. 10-yr heading out at 2.48%, -1bp.
Falling shares giving fixed income prices a lift (falling yields).
Usually USD negative?
Livingston nh 19:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
red - the end is nearer for rate hikes than earlier this year but still a lot of complacency about Yellen's considerable period before hikes -- QE (it's only a trillion dollars) is getting some play (away from Treasury) but geo-political is being blamed, even some Argentina, ESB, EU risks / so stox are being sold but everybody has their pet reason
Bond market is the key for stox and currencies - even gold
london red 19:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
usdjpy horly trendline has been supporting rally. currently at 102.48. if stocks get really bloody then you can expect it to pop but you have to be a buyer at c. 10225/the 200 day ma just below, as market is still mad for dollar dips.
london red 19:15 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
nh, aren't stocks just pricing in a more certain reality now? the more positive data the more stocks are going to be pressured. the snowball has started rolling down the cliff...
top of first support zone 1894-1916 gave a bounce so all is still well (frothy?). we can bounce again at 1894/1902. below there i see your 200 day. ending of prev 2 qe's resulted in 15-20% corrections, likely we get the same here at least no?
Livingston nh 19:09 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
SPX takes out Friday AM low - Treasurys safe haven again but are mostly unchanged (no rally) -- problem w/ stox is nobody can point to a "single" reason for decline so more uncertainty // LT wkly chart shows SPX been supported on 21 MA since end of 2012 (only one close below this year) - the daily chart shows no attempt at the 200 dma -- S&P 1860 is the critical lvl (1790 is correction lvl)
dc CB 19:06 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
(MarketWatch) -- Walgreen's WAG -5.78% will not invert as it takes over British pharmacy chain Alliance Boots, Sky News reported , citing unnamed sources.
The news comes as President Barack Obama has blasted corporate inversions, in which a company takes over a foreign firm and then re-domiciles to lower their tax bill. Walgreen's stock tumbled 7% on the report.
Walgreen's tumbles on report it won't invert
PAR 19:00 GMT August 5, 2014
RUSSIA
Reply
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged his government to come up with countermeasures to Western sanctions imposed against Russia over the Ukrainian conflict.
Medvedev: Russia to consider retaliation to EU sanctions
Putin stressed that Moscow’s response should be “cautious.”
“Obviously we need to do it cautiously in order to support domestic manufacturers, but not hurt consumers,” he said on Tuesday.
The president expects the government to present a response to the sanctions as soon as possible.
Putin said that the political tools of pressure being used against the Russian economy are unacceptable, stressing that they go against international rules and norms.
Putin’s comments come on the same day Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that Moscow will consider possible responses to EU sanctions against Russian airlines.
london red 18:46 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
JP, unlikely? no. you are spot on. as night follows day. better data/jobs leads to inflation sooner or later and thus rates.
think a lot of folk had this as a base view start 2014 but the q1 shook them out and now you're getting some chasing, certainly as far as usd concerned. loonie gets overbought c. 1.10-1.1030 fwiw
Paris ib 18:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
JP that was just a quote. I think the Anglo-Saxob deficit (current account) system is not getting the money it needs. Currencies and stocks will get hit. Bonds could rally I the i terim but I wouldn't long any of it. Reset indeed.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:23 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Someone turned on the JPY correlation algo
Mtl JP 18:12 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Paris ib 16:39 / I say FX or equities is NOT some fashion / hairdressing beauty contest show.
What IS pretty - to traders - are I dare postulate, (preferably FAT) PROFITS.
-
I am betting that us 10-yr note will see 3% + before yr end as unlikely it may seem today.
Paris ib 16:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
"....the Fed will have difficulties controlling market gyrations and its potential loss of credibility from troubles that are likely to arise from its exit strategy. If the economy strengthens, markets will be forced to price in a more aggressive Fed...... If data weakens, the market will worry that the Fed has no ammunition; and regardless, markets would question QE’s effectiveness. Neither outcome is good for equities or credit..... I maintain my prediction of a sub 3% 30 year by year end."
And in that environment what does the USD do??
It won't be pretty
dc CB 16:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
Reply
A group of Democratic Senate leaders is calling on President Obama to go around Congress and act on his own to curtail tax benefits for United States companies that relocate overseas
“They’re looking at what they can do on their own,” Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said in an interview last week. “They want to do it. The president really dislikes the inversions, and if they feel they have a strong legal ability to do it, they will.”
Democrats Ask Obama to Act on Corporate Inversions
Paris ib 16:28 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Snowflake principal.... something is happening. Hard to know how this is going to pan out. But the dam is springing leaks at the weak points and there are a lot of weak points out there. I don't think we get a repeat of the recent European crisis just because things don't repeat themselves. But something is up.
GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
I usually don't pay a lot of attention to the peripheral bond yields because thy tend to be thin and volatile but the spike in Greek yields stood out like something might be happening? Perhaps the BES mess has been causing some jitters?
GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Markets are in a mixed risk posture late in the European session
Data releases today have Eben mixed
to positive.The EURUSD appears to have broken decisively through
the 1.3400 line ahead of th ECB policy board decision on Thursday.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are working higher.
Yields
on the European
periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr is 1.17%, +3bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.58% +4bp following strong Services PMI data. . A +25bp BOE
rate hike is still seen by yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.81%, +2bp. The
psychological pivot remains 2.50%
- Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe
have closed higher. .U.S. shares are marginally lower.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
NY JM 15:32 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Kal, I will give you all you want at 1.46
How about 1.25-1.40 or even 1.20-1.40?
SaaR KaL 14:55 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
EURUSD this coming 30 weeks
from 1.31 to 1.46
seems like good range for very long term
GVI Forex Blog 14:52 GMT August 5, 2014
Reply
August 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade,
GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 5, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT August 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
August 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 6.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade,
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Trade, Weekly Crude. CA- Trade
GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
JM be sure to read the initial posts in this thread
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT 08/05/2014
SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
watch AudUSD
if you want to Long it for a while
from 0.9270ish to .98ish
In a Month
the other is GBPCHF
from 1.52ish to 1.57ish in 3 weeks
NY JM 14:33 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
US yields higher after data => USD higher
US stocks recovering although still in red
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
It has downward momentum (look at chart points), just not as fast as a lot of us would like.
GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Interesting that today is the day that EURUSD finally decided to move. Setting up for ECB on Thursday? . I thought it had been looking a little heavy yesterday afternoon. Could it be EURUSD is developing some downward momentum?
SaaR KaL 14:26 GMT August 5, 2014
Wages for Ukranian Soldiers
Yep
The politicians are runnin aways with da gold...LOL
Happens all the time
London Chris 14:25 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
Trend is your friend...................... 1.33 is in the headlights
Paris ib 14:24 GMT August 5, 2014
Wages for Ukranian Soldiers
Reply
Soldiers in the Ukranian army aren't complaining about not getting paid, they are complaining of having nothing to EAT. So the situation it appears is quite a bit worse.
I wonder how long this can go on?
Ukraine
SaaR KaL 14:18 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPAUD SHorts
1.8138 1.7993
NY JMr 13:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Is it August or the market or a combination that is dampening interest?
or are too many looking for a correction?
GVI Forex john 13:05 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
S&P to USDJPY completely uncorrelated so far today. Main culprit looks to be S&P weakness imo.
I have some fundamental issues with the logic of this trade. We will have to see over time if it can hold.
NY JM 13:00 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
What happened to the JPY correlation trade (US stocks opening lower)?
London Chris 12:33 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
Zeus, many of these forecasts have been scaled back as they have been calling for a weaker eurusd since the start of 2013. By the way terrific call.
By the way where are the usd accumulation bears from Indonesia?
USA ZEUS 12:26 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
PAR- Wonder why they didn't see that 9 sticks higher and 5 months earlier when everyone was screaming for 1.42.... ;-))
Cheers!
PAR 12:14 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD standing at 1.31 at the end of 2014 and the downward move continuing in 2015 towards 1.24.
Key quotes
"'Indeed, we believe relationships established over the past two years between the EUR and financial markets have already started to break down, leaving the EUR exposed to the underlying bearish fundamentals,' MS argues."
"'Private investor flows into peripheral bonds, equity markets, and central bank diversification will be declining sources of support for the EUR in our view. The increased potential for currency hedging of European assets in an environment of rising volatility is another EUR negative,' MS adds."
"In line with this view, MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its medium-term portfolio from 1.3620, with a revised profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31."
USA ZEUS 11:54 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top
Update- As posted in March right when wave 5 printed, this is the ONLY EUR/USD chart needed to guide the way for 2014. It's that simple...
SaaR KaL 11:54 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Alan and Joe
No offence brothers
You know that well
SaaR KaL 11:52 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Putting things in narrow view
1) Chines Tea trade w/ the opium addiction has nothing to Kings.
2) Maps of Australia, America NZ, South Africa, Indian has nothing to do with the chines and specifically in 1421.
3) Civil war in the USA has nothing to do with tea trade and Salt.
4) The Green Built in UK has nothing to do with Land Lords from Henry the 8th and friends (House of Lords...has nothing to do with Land Lords off course)
5) India Needs Help...+ Nelson Mandela (A terrorist)
6) The English citizen is "Not Getting ripped off"
Plzzzzzzzzzzzzz
GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly weaker headomg onto the ECB decision on Thursday. Spot to 20-day averages have been turning mixed as EUR losing less vs. USD than others.
SaaR KaL 11:31 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Now he made me take a Major dose of Prozac
Lovely stuff
SaaR KaL 11:26 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
He says..."My shrink"
Chris should do the opposite of what i say...So I can make more money from you...then get taxed by politicians for their dinners in lobbies.
My shrink is da best around
(Use to be Mental Health Minister)
Thank you
SaaR KaL 11:22 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
My shrink asked me to say that to you...so... you are gonna have to excuse me chris
SaaR KaL 11:21 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Chris
A fantasy
Do not do what i say...cause I see dead people.
No Offence bro
London Chris 11:18 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Saar, is that a forecast or a dream?
SaaR KaL 11:17 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
xptusd
shorts
1,466.84
tgt
1,446.45
for da week
1435
SaaR KaL 11:10 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
EURJPY SHorts
from 138.23 to 138.64
tgt 136.00 for the week
and 134 for the month
SaaR KaL 10:57 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
No shorting EURUSD
Untill 1.3440 today
PAR 09:59 GMT August 5, 2014
Russia
Reply
Russia May Ban EU Airlines' Routes Over Siberia in Response to Sanctions
Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France are aware of the possible move and are concerned over possible losses which could amount to 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) for three months of restrictions, the daily quoted an unnamed source as saying.
The restrictions would lead to longer flights, higher fuel use and other additional costs for European airlines, putting them at a competitive disadvantage versus Asian rivals.
Russia's Transport Ministry and the civil aviation authority declined to comment on the report.
london red 09:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
john, think its difficult to see sustained euro downside prior to ecb on thursday. market is v short and needs another big catalyst for a further move to the downside. there is a large risk of short covering if draghi doesnt say anything new. i think a 134 end of week put call strategy will capture the bulk of the moves to come, costing about half a figure premium. you get the downside cover pre ecb and the topside on any covering. think 13475 just as likely as 13350/70 this week.
GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply
I noticed late yesterday that the EURUSD seemed to be having trouble holding the 1.3420 area and that 1.3400 was exerting a strong magnetic pull. I wonder now that the if the U.S. jobs data are behind us if EURUSD can now work its way lower to the low 1.3300's area? Price movements these days seem to come at a glacial pace.
GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply
Early in Europe, markets are in a mixed risk-on posture following
mixed to positive data releases today.The EURUSD 1.3400 line has
been having a magnetic pull.
- Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are trying to work higher.
Yields
on the European
periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr is 1.15%, +1bp.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is
2.57% +3bp. A +25bp BOE
rate hike is still seen by yearend.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.49%, 0bp. The
psychological pivot remains 2.50%
- Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe
are higher. .U.S. share futures are steady.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
london red 09:05 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
eurgbp. stopped short of 50% fib at 29, 21 day at 27 yet to be tested. res at 7940. if retakes, poss full reversal to 60 on cards, but this would need a blip higher in euro. shorting covering will come into play this week, but possibly not this morning.
SaaR KaL 09:04 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
short gold here for 20 Bucks south
london red 08:51 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
future exp continue to fall and no price pressures are the only negatives in the report, explains lack of follow thru. trade circling 83 fib, needs to take 90 for further impetus.
GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
U.K. July Services PMI much stronger than expected divergence with mfg reading.
london red 08:35 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
servs always a strong point for uk data, tomorrows ip and mp are the worries even if coming off misses last time.
london red 08:33 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
res for cabel at 90 and 16905/10. if abv there 16950 likely to cap
eurgbp 21 day ma at 7927. if fails to hold, sign that downtrend could be back soon. but base view is it holds into ecb.
SaaR KaL 08:11 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
USDCAD want to go his top fast
Buying this week
around 1.0870
tgt 1.1150 for now
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:09 GMT August 5, 2014
AceTrader Aug 5: Daily Market Recommendation on EUR/USD
Reply
Daily Recommendations on Majors: EUR/USD - 1.3405
Update Time: 05 Aug 2014 07:50 GMT
Despite euro's sideways trading below last Friday's high of 1.3445, as early breach of 1.3405 (now sup) signals MT fall from at 1.3995 (May) has made a temp. low at last Wednesday's 8-1/2 month low at 1.3366, stronger retrace. twd 1.3485 is seen before decline resumes.
GVI Forex john 08:05 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 EZ Final Services PMI
EZ, Germany and France final Services PMIs mixed Germany revised up, France steady EZ down.
Lahore FM 07:25 GMT August 5, 2014
silver amd gold
Reply
both silver and gold are at crossroads.
largely upside looks more promising in my humble view.
today's close and this week's close will throw a clearer light.
SaaR KaL 06:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Cable heading into 1.6740 IMO
SaaR KaL 06:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
will short cable and EURUSD
>1.6870 and >1.3440
AUDUSD
Now Bullish Long term
from below .9250
generally target .98
Jessore 06:01 GMT August 5, 2014
Get cash back after your trading in Forex
Reply
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Syd 05:33 GMT August 5, 2014
RBA Says Lower Exchange Rate Won't Fuel Inflation
Reply
Australia's central bank has blamed higher 2Q inflation on last year's fall in the exchange rate, but it believes low wages growth will keep inflation in check, even if the exchange rate were to fall. "Growth in wages has declined noticeably and is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate," the RBA said after its board meeting. With economic growth still expected to be "a little below trend" in the year ahead, and wages growth remaining low, the RBA is betting that a lower exchange won't push up import prices.
Syd 05:29 GMT August 5, 2014
AUD/USD Gains Capped Post-RBA on Weak China PMI, Risk Sentiment
Reply
he Australian dollar slipped as low as 0.9315 from 0.9327 against the greenback Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains its cash rate at 2.5% as widely expected. The currency pair has since rebounded to as high as 0.9342. Further upside in spot AUD/USD may encounter resistance at 0.9347 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 0.9470-0.9272 July 24-Aug. 1 decline). AUD/USD gains Tuesday are likely to be limited for now after the HSBC China services PMI falls to a record low of 50.0 in July from 53.1 in June, and risk sentiment sours:
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:18 GMT August 5, 2014
AceTrader Aug 5: Market Review & data to be released today
Reply
Market Review - EUR/USD
EUR/USD - ... Yesterday on Europe closing saw the single currency traded narrowly on Monday after Fri's strong rebound to 1.3445. Euro ratcheted lower from last Fri's NY high at 1.3445 to 1.3409/10 in New York b4 recovering. Some bids are now reported at 1.3410-05 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3430-40, however, trading was subdued as investors are waiting for the ECB's rate decision on Thursday.
Earlier Fed issued a statement, quote:
banks eased lending standards for many loan categories amid broad-based pickup in loan demand in 3-month period to July;
many banks eased standards on prime residential home loans;
little change in standards for other household loans; domestic banks eased lending standards for commercial/industrial, most types of commercial real estate loans;
banks saw stronger demand for many more loan categories that in April survey - quarterly senior loan officers survey.
Tuesday will see the release of Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSBC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods and factory orders.
GVI Forex 01:44 GMT August 5, 2014
Australia
Reply
MNI: AUSTRALIA JUNE TRADE BALANCE -A$1.7B; MNI MEDIAN -A$1.9B
sd sf 00:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning
Reply
We probably had the worst price pattern possible in the GBP
instead of testing 16780 and bouncing quickly to 16880-90 we based @10 and sloppily moved up allowing some stale longs to slow the rise.
obviously some people took to heart what SYD posted yesterday on the shadow MPC.
this morning bots have been offering 62-64
EurUsd
seeing nothing much here just selling this morning @23
EurCad GbpCad - no orders in those today
Don't have any thoughts myself till the Aud Data is resolved.
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