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Forex Forum Archive for 08/05/2014

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Mtl JP 23:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Fed's forward guidance
Reply   
Fed on track for earlier rate rise, Fisher says

Aug 5 (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official known for his hawkish policy views said Tuesday the Fed is on track for an earlier rate rise than he and his colleagues had forecast just a few months ago.

"I think the committee, as I listen to them and I can only speak for myself around that table during two days of discussion, is coming in my direction, so I didn't feel the need to dissent," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Fox Business Network.

"We are going to have to move the date of liftoff further forward than had been projected the last time we issued the 'dots'" he said, referring to the official Fed forecasts for short-term interest rates, last issued in June.

Fisher said that if his colleagues do not continue to move in the direction of tightening monetary policy, "I will dissent."

london red 22:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning

re fonterra auction earlier. prices down again but volumes up over 30%.
200 day stops just being run now but 43 should hold into jobs report

sd sf 21:35 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning
Reply   
GBP

stops @1.6910 - seems downside is only 73-75 in short term

EUR

t/p bids @68/69/70

EurCad + GbpCad - no orders this morning

NZD looks like a real stop hunt this morning on these figures - GBPNZD seems the play on the day.

Overall not so much risk on the book at this time.

SaaR KaL 21:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

good night all
someday we will figure this out.. ;)

london red 20:56 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

john, c. 1.20 seen 3 times since all time high but no monthly close below it. 12129 is 50% of high low post 2000, while the 38.2% comes in at an interesting 1.3051 area.
now if we managed to get anywhere near those levels and bunds yields still low i will take my hat off to those germans as having a weak currency but low borrowing rates (for them) was the plan all along.

SaaR KaL 20:52 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

I Liked that email john
Thanks

SaaR KaL 20:47 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

too far John
is perfect
1.32ish to 1.35
slow down for 7 weeks...should confirm 1.46 IMO
The EURUSD will slow down to do a base

london red 20:43 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi

def some good gbp buying today. cable impressively shook off US ism and reverse throughout afta to close near highs. decent tail on this daily candle suggest intent to test 80 day ema and if broken 16940/50. clearing 16890 if the signal for a run at the 80 ema. cant decide whether top will be c. 16950 or c. 17050 before 16810 test/break. clearly dollars are in demand but uk data is going to give plenty of upside risk.
todays candle shows intent is there, a couple of beats tomorrow should see the 80 ema taken but the data is ip and mp, both youd expect to show further signs of suffering from strong pound and now russia. the bar is low after last months misses but these aren't easy beats unlike todays services, a uk stronghold and 70 odd % of gdp. that said, sterling and the uk economy made light work of these kind of situations a couple of months back.
euro, i made my views clear earlier, in short downside is hampered pre draghi. and afer draghi, you usually get some covering even if the following move is lower.

SaaR KaL 20:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

JP
I am with you 100% onUSDCAD
1.10 to 1.11
corrects back to 1.04
then does the long term job...for 1.2

GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

I think we get to 1.3000 soon. 1.2000 could be a bridge too far?

SaaR KaL 20:38 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi

No one is sleeping good for a week
I just know it
things are on a major reveals
and everyone is really not sure...so stress goes up a little
heheheh
Someone is sniffin something

Mtl JP 20:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

gv chartpoint usdcad 200dma still playing
now that the 1.0950 FIB retrace theory got validated, next trgt after 1.0959 holds should be 1.10
IF... if 1.10 prints, some pullback would be likely

SaaR KaL 20:33 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi

Red
EURUSD and Cable
What do you think?
I got 1.66 cable into 1.8 for a long time before 1.55

london red 20:30 GMT August 5, 2014
kiwi
Reply   
unemployment and extras up later. think market will look for an excuse to sell rally here. think figures are initially going to be a boost for nzd but suspect plenty lined up to cap at 8505-20. i suspect we will see the 200 day ma broken before any meaningful bounce. think support at 8400 (fib 8443 break targets) holds for a 1 figure plus bounce but have to get there pretty directly.

SaaR KaL 20:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

John
what do you think?
1.46 before 1.2
or Visa Versa?
TIA

GVI Forex john 20:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6, 2014
US Factory Orders
US ISM SVC PMI
CH CPI
CA Trade 
US Trade
THURSDAY AUGUST 7, 2014
AU Employment
GB Bank of England
EZ Europe Cntl Bank
US Initial Claims
CA Ivey PMI
FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p

SaaR KaL 20:27 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

JM
This is Hard...so hard
I do my best... along comes my ego and distractions
which is cool for me and many
We all try

SaaR KaL 20:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

JM
well said
Just depends which one will happen first
I have 1.20...not disagreeing
but not before 1.46

the same with aapl
I am going on and on that will crash to 80
Now I know why i why i have great levels
but they do not happen in the sequence that I like
LOL
IMO 1.31 to 146...then 1.2
But again... i could be wrong
still i learn or try.. ;)

GVI Forex john 20:17 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

london red 19:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

btw re yellen, here first slip up was just that, a freudian slip. she now knows not to say what she thinks. 6 months it will be i reckon from end qe.

london red 19:35 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

you're always going to get that support for bonds, but now selling rallies isnt seen as being as fruitless as 6 months ago. we all new the threat was coming but i think once we get within that 6 months from rate rise window, i cant see us being to far below the 3.0.
but nearer term, august play, can see a shs building and think half a point caps us before another attempt to bottom of range for the 10.

Mtl JP 19:32 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

Jay share some of the comedy plz - tia

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

Bubblevision is comical trying to explain weakness in stocks.

GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

U.S. 10-yr heading out at 2.48%, -1bp.

Falling shares giving fixed income prices a lift (falling yields).

Usually USD negative?

Livingston nh 19:25 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

red - the end is nearer for rate hikes than earlier this year but still a lot of complacency about Yellen's considerable period before hikes -- QE (it's only a trillion dollars) is getting some play (away from Treasury) but geo-political is being blamed, even some Argentina, ESB, EU risks / so stox are being sold but everybody has their pet reason

Bond market is the key for stox and currencies - even gold

london red 19:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

usdjpy horly trendline has been supporting rally. currently at 102.48. if stocks get really bloody then you can expect it to pop but you have to be a buyer at c. 10225/the 200 day ma just below, as market is still mad for dollar dips.

GVI Forex Blog 19:16 GMT August 5, 2014
EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Due Later
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade

U.S. Services PMI data Markit and ISM ) both fell modestly in July but remained at relatively high levels and gave the USD a boost. U.K. Service PMI data beat expectations, but presented a mixed picture in July when taken with the Mfg PMI release last week.

EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Due Later

london red 19:15 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

nh, aren't stocks just pricing in a more certain reality now? the more positive data the more stocks are going to be pressured. the snowball has started rolling down the cliff...
top of first support zone 1894-1916 gave a bounce so all is still well (frothy?). we can bounce again at 1894/1902. below there i see your 200 day. ending of prev 2 qe's resulted in 15-20% corrections, likely we get the same here at least no?

GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Livingston nh 19:09 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

SPX takes out Friday AM low - Treasurys safe haven again but are mostly unchanged (no rally) -- problem w/ stox is nobody can point to a "single" reason for decline so more uncertainty // LT wkly chart shows SPX been supported on 21 MA since end of 2012 (only one close below this year) - the daily chart shows no attempt at the 200 dma -- S&P 1860 is the critical lvl (1790 is correction lvl)

dc CB 19:06 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox

(MarketWatch) -- Walgreen's WAG -5.78% will not invert as it takes over British pharmacy chain Alliance Boots, Sky News reported , citing unnamed sources.

The news comes as President Barack Obama has blasted corporate inversions, in which a company takes over a foreign firm and then re-domiciles to lower their tax bill. Walgreen's stock tumbled 7% on the report.

Walgreen's tumbles on report it won't invert

PAR 19:00 GMT August 5, 2014
RUSSIA
Reply   
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged his government to come up with countermeasures to Western sanctions imposed against Russia over the Ukrainian conflict.

Medvedev: Russia to consider retaliation to EU sanctions

Putin stressed that Moscow’s response should be “cautious.”

“Obviously we need to do it cautiously in order to support domestic manufacturers, but not hurt consumers,” he said on Tuesday.

The president expects the government to present a response to the sanctions as soon as possible.

Putin said that the political tools of pressure being used against the Russian economy are unacceptable, stressing that they go against international rules and norms.

Putin’s comments come on the same day Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that Moscow will consider possible responses to EU sanctions against Russian airlines.

london red 18:46 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP, unlikely? no. you are spot on. as night follows day. better data/jobs leads to inflation sooner or later and thus rates.
think a lot of folk had this as a base view start 2014 but the q1 shook them out and now you're getting some chasing, certainly as far as usd concerned. loonie gets overbought c. 1.10-1.1030 fwiw

Paris ib 18:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP that was just a quote. I think the Anglo-Saxob deficit (current account) system is not getting the money it needs. Currencies and stocks will get hit. Bonds could rally I the i terim but I wouldn't long any of it. Reset indeed.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:23 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Someone turned on the JPY correlation algo

Mtl JP 18:12 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Paris ib 16:39 / I say FX or equities is NOT some fashion / hairdressing beauty contest show.
What IS pretty - to traders - are I dare postulate, (preferably FAT) PROFITS.
-
I am betting that us 10-yr note will see 3% + before yr end as unlikely it may seem today.

prague mark 18:09 GMT August 5, 2014
add short 0.93

Long 0.93

tokyo ginko 17:27 GMT August 5, 2014
add short 0.93
Reply   
added short aud/usd @ 0.93

Paris ib 16:39 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

"....the Fed will have difficulties controlling market gyrations and its potential loss of credibility from troubles that are likely to arise from its exit strategy. If the economy strengthens, markets will be forced to price in a more aggressive Fed...... If data weakens, the market will worry that the Fed has no ammunition; and regardless, markets would question QE’s effectiveness. Neither outcome is good for equities or credit..... I maintain my prediction of a sub 3% 30 year by year end."

And in that environment what does the USD do??

It won't be pretty

dc CB 16:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Stox
Reply   
A group of Democratic Senate leaders is calling on President Obama to go around Congress and act on his own to curtail tax benefits for United States companies that relocate overseas

“They’re looking at what they can do on their own,” Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said in an interview last week. “They want to do it. The president really dislikes the inversions, and if they feel they have a strong legal ability to do it, they will.”

Democrats Ask Obama to Act on Corporate Inversions

Paris ib 16:28 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Snowflake principal.... something is happening. Hard to know how this is going to pan out. But the dam is springing leaks at the weak points and there are a lot of weak points out there. I don't think we get a repeat of the recent European crisis just because things don't repeat themselves. But something is up.

GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I usually don't pay a lot of attention to the peripheral bond yields because thy tend to be thin and volatile but the spike in Greek yields stood out like something might be happening? Perhaps the BES mess has been causing some jitters?

GVI Forex john 16:11 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Markets are in a mixed risk posture late in the European session  Data releases today have Eben mixed to positive.The  EURUSD appears to have broken decisively through the 1.3400 line ahead of th ECB policy board decision on Thursday.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are working  higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr  is 1.17%, +3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.58%  +4bp following strong Services PMI data. . A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.81%, +2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe have  closed higher. .U.S. shares are marginally lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


NY JM 15:32 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Kal, I will give you all you want at 1.46

How about 1.25-1.40 or even 1.20-1.40?

SaaR KaL 14:55 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD this coming 30 weeks
from 1.31 to 1.46
seems like good range for very long term

GVI Forex Blog 14:52 GMT August 5, 2014 Reply   
August 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade,

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 5, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT August 5, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 5, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output. US- Trade,

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders, CH- CPI, GB- Output
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Trade, Weekly Crude. CA- Trade


GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

JM be sure to read the initial posts in this thread

Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT 08/05/2014

SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

watch AudUSD
if you want to Long it for a while

from 0.9270ish to .98ish
In a Month

the other is GBPCHF
from 1.52ish to 1.57ish in 3 weeks

NY JM 14:33 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

US yields higher after data => USD higher

US stocks recovering although still in red

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

It has downward momentum (look at chart points), just not as fast as a lot of us would like.

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Interesting that today is the day that EURUSD finally decided to move. Setting up for ECB on Thursday? . I thought it had been looking a little heavy yesterday afternoon. Could it be EURUSD is developing some downward momentum?

SaaR KaL 14:26 GMT August 5, 2014
Wages for Ukranian Soldiers

Yep
The politicians are runnin aways with da gold...LOL
Happens all the time

London Chris 14:25 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Trend is your friend...................... 1.33 is in the headlights

Paris ib 14:24 GMT August 5, 2014
Wages for Ukranian Soldiers
Reply   
Soldiers in the Ukranian army aren't complaining about not getting paid, they are complaining of having nothing to EAT. So the situation it appears is quite a bit worse.

I wonder how long this can go on?

Ukraine

GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.516%, +2.6bp post data

SaaR KaL 14:18 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPAUD SHorts
1.8138 1.7993

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI

ISM Services PMI. Both Services PMIs strong.

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT August 5, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Factory Orders
Reply   



ALERT

+1.10% vs. +0.60% exp. vs.-0.50% (r -0.60%) rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 U.S. ISM Services PMI
Reply   



ALERT
58.7 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 prev.
Employment sub-component
56.0 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.4 prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT August 5, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Markit final Services PMI
Reply   





ALERT
60.8 vs. 61.2 exp. vs. 61.0 (flash)



Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

NY JMr 13:37 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

Is it August or the market or a combination that is dampening interest?

or are too many looking for a correction?

GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT August 5, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

U.S. 10-yr 2,502% +1bp

GVI Forex 13:06 GMT August 5, 2014
Today's Pivot Points
Reply   
eurusd 1.3421
usdjpy 102.57
usdchf 0.9065
gbpusd 1.6844
usdcad 1.0916
audusd 0.9325

G-V FX Chart Points

GVI Forex john 13:05 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

S&P to USDJPY completely uncorrelated so far today. Main culprit looks to be S&P weakness imo.

I have some fundamental issues with the logic of this trade. We will have to see over time if it can hold.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:03 GMT August 5, 2014
Buildup Makes Russia Battle-Ready for Ukraine
Reply   
Is this a risk off factor?

Buildup Makes Russia Battle-Ready for Ukraine

NY JM 13:00 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

What happened to the JPY correlation trade (US stocks opening lower)?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Is There an Invisible Hand?
Reply   
Important topic, timely article, suggested reading.

Is There an Invisible Hand?

London Chris 12:33 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Zeus, many of these forecasts have been scaled back as they have been calling for a weaker eurusd since the start of 2013. By the way terrific call.

By the way where are the usd accumulation bears from Indonesia?

USA ZEUS 12:26 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

PAR- Wonder why they didn't see that 9 sticks higher and 5 months earlier when everyone was screaming for 1.42.... ;-))

Cheers!

PAR 12:14 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD standing at 1.31 at the end of 2014 and the downward move continuing in 2015 towards 1.24.

Key quotes

"'Indeed, we believe relationships established over the past two years between the EUR and financial markets have already started to break down, leaving the EUR exposed to the underlying bearish fundamentals,' MS argues."

"'Private investor flows into peripheral bonds, equity markets, and central bank diversification will be declining sources of support for the EUR in our view. The increased potential for currency hedging of European assets in an environment of rising volatility is another EUR negative,' MS adds."

"In line with this view, MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its medium-term portfolio from 1.3620, with a revised profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31."

USA ZEUS 11:54 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top



Update- As posted in March right when wave 5 printed, this is the ONLY EUR/USD chart needed to guide the way for 2014. It's that simple...

SaaR KaL 11:54 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Alan and Joe
No offence brothers
You know that well

SaaR KaL 11:52 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Putting things in narrow view
1) Chines Tea trade w/ the opium addiction has nothing to Kings.
2) Maps of Australia, America NZ, South Africa, Indian has nothing to do with the chines and specifically in 1421.
3) Civil war in the USA has nothing to do with tea trade and Salt.
4) The Green Built in UK has nothing to do with Land Lords from Henry the 8th and friends (House of Lords...has nothing to do with Land Lords off course)
5) India Needs Help...+ Nelson Mandela (A terrorist)
6) The English citizen is "Not Getting ripped off"
Plzzzzzzzzzzzzz




GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT August 5, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly weaker headomg onto the ECB decision on Thursday. Spot to 20-day averages have been turning mixed as EUR losing less vs. USD than others.




SaaR KaL 11:31 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Now he made me take a Major dose of Prozac
Lovely stuff

SaaR KaL 11:26 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

He says..."My shrink"
Chris should do the opposite of what i say...So I can make more money from you...then get taxed by politicians for their dinners in lobbies.
My shrink is da best around
(Use to be Mental Health Minister)
Thank you

SaaR KaL 11:22 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

My shrink asked me to say that to you...so... you are gonna have to excuse me chris

SaaR KaL 11:21 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Chris
A fantasy
Do not do what i say...cause I see dead people.
No Offence bro

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:20 GMT August 5, 2014
12 Strategies I Use to Trade in a Low Volatility Market
Reply   
For those who missed it, highly suggested reading:

12 Strategies I Use to Trade in a Low Volatility Market

London Chris 11:18 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Saar, is that a forecast or a dream?

SaaR KaL 11:17 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

xptusd
shorts
1,466.84

tgt
1,446.45

for da week
1435

SaaR KaL 11:10 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

EURJPY SHorts
from 138.23 to 138.64
tgt 136.00 for the week
and 134 for the month

SaaR KaL 10:57 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

No shorting EURUSD
Untill 1.3440 today

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:44 GMT August 5, 2014
Thoughts from the Trading Trenches
Reply   
For those who missed it, highly suggested reading:

http://www.tradersadvocate.com/member_contents/index/264#.U-C1GE7D8kk

GVI Forex Blog 10:29 GMT August 5, 2014
EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Due Later
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Service PMIs, Factory Orders

U.K. Service PMI data beat expectations, but presented a mixed picture in July when taken with the Mfg PMI release last week. Revisions to EZ flash Service PMI data were minor and had no exchange rate impact. EZ Retail Sales data were mixed.

EZ Service PMI Data Revisions Mixed. UK Service PMI Beats. U.S. Service PMI Data Due Later

GVI Forex Blog 10:17 GMT August 5, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP/USD hit session highs and continued to rebound from last week lows after its PMI Services data beat expectations. The GBP had been hampered after recent moderation in leading UK indicators recently

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: PMI Services data mixed and showing some stagnation in Europe

PAR 09:59 GMT August 5, 2014
Russia
Reply   
Russia May Ban EU Airlines' Routes Over Siberia in Response to Sanctions


Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France are aware of the possible move and are concerned over possible losses which could amount to 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) for three months of restrictions, the daily quoted an unnamed source as saying.

The restrictions would lead to longer flights, higher fuel use and other additional costs for European airlines, putting them at a competitive disadvantage versus Asian rivals.

Russia's Transport Ministry and the civil aviation authority declined to comment on the report.

london red 09:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

john, think its difficult to see sustained euro downside prior to ecb on thursday. market is v short and needs another big catalyst for a further move to the downside. there is a large risk of short covering if draghi doesnt say anything new. i think a 134 end of week put call strategy will capture the bulk of the moves to come, costing about half a figure premium. you get the downside cover pre ecb and the topside on any covering. think 13475 just as likely as 13350/70 this week.

GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT August 5, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
I noticed late yesterday that the EURUSD seemed to be having trouble holding the 1.3420 area and that 1.3400 was exerting a strong magnetic pull. I wonder now that the if the U.S. jobs data are behind us if EURUSD can now work its way lower to the low 1.3300's area? Price movements these days seem to come at a glacial pace.

GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Early in Europe, markets are in a mixed risk-on posture following mixed to positive data releases today.The  EURUSD 1.3400 line has been having a magnetic pull.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are trying to work  higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr  is 1.15%, +1bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.57%  +3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.49%, 0bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are higher. .U.S. share futures are steady.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 09:05 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

eurgbp. stopped short of 50% fib at 29, 21 day at 27 yet to be tested. res at 7940. if retakes, poss full reversal to 60 on cards, but this would need a blip higher in euro. shorting covering will come into play this week, but possibly not this morning.

SaaR KaL 09:04 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

short gold here for 20 Bucks south

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT August 5, 2014
June 2014 Eurozone Retail Sales

Mixed EZ data

GBP holding onto its gains after Service PMI data 30mins ago.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT August 5, 2014
June 2014 Eurozone Retail Sales
Reply   




ALERT
mm:+0.40% vs +0.50% exp. vs. +0.00% (r +0.30% ) prev.
yy: +2.40% vs. +1.30% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:51 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

future exp continue to fall and no price pressures are the only negatives in the report, explains lack of follow thru. trade circling 83 fib, needs to take 90 for further impetus.

GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

U.K. July Services PMI much stronger than expected divergence with mfg reading.

london red 08:35 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

servs always a strong point for uk data, tomorrows ip and mp are the worries even if coming off misses last time.

london red 08:33 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

res for cabel at 90 and 16905/10. if abv there 16950 likely to cap
eurgbp 21 day ma at 7927. if fails to hold, sign that downtrend could be back soon. but base view is it holds into ecb.

GVI Forex john 08:31 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI

Major beat by UK data

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 GB Services PMI
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

59.1 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 57.7 (r 57.6) prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 08:11 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD want to go his top fast
Buying this week
around 1.0870
tgt 1.1150 for now

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:09 GMT August 5, 2014
AceTrader Aug 5: Daily Market Recommendation on EUR/USD
Reply   

Daily Recommendations on Majors: EUR/USD - 1.3405

Update Time: 05 Aug 2014 07:50 GMT

Despite euro's sideways trading below last Friday's high of 1.3445, as early breach of 1.3405 (now sup) signals MT fall from at 1.3995 (May) has made a temp. low at last Wednesday's 8-1/2 month low at 1.3366, stronger retrace. twd 1.3485 is seen before decline resumes.

GVI Forex john 08:05 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 EZ Final Services PMI

EZ, Germany and France final Services PMIs mixed Germany revised up, France steady EZ down.

GVI Forex john 08:01 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 EZ Final Services PMI

mixed EZ Service PMIs

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT August 5, 2014
July 2014 EZ Final Services PMI
Reply   





NEWS ALERT
Service PMI's
EZ: 54.2 vs. 54.4 exp. vs. 54.4 (flash)
France: 50.4 vs. 50.4 exp. vs. 50.4 (flash)
Germany:56.7 vs. 56.6 exp. vs. 56.6 (flash)



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Lahore FM 07:25 GMT August 5, 2014
silver amd gold
Reply   
both silver and gold are at crossroads.

largely upside looks more promising in my humble view.

today's close and this week's close will throw a clearer light.

SaaR KaL 06:42 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable heading into 1.6740 IMO

SaaR KaL 06:19 GMT August 5, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
will short cable and EURUSD
>1.6870 and >1.3440

AUDUSD
Now Bullish Long term
from below .9250
generally target .98

Jessore 06:01 GMT August 5, 2014
Get cash back after your trading in Forex
Reply   
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tokyo ginko 06:01 GMT August 5, 2014
Your Best Trade Today

add nk 15320!

Syd 05:33 GMT August 5, 2014
RBA Says Lower Exchange Rate Won't Fuel Inflation
Reply   
Australia's central bank has blamed higher 2Q inflation on last year's fall in the exchange rate, but it believes low wages growth will keep inflation in check, even if the exchange rate were to fall. "Growth in wages has declined noticeably and is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate," the RBA said after its board meeting. With economic growth still expected to be "a little below trend" in the year ahead, and wages growth remaining low, the RBA is betting that a lower exchange won't push up import prices.

Syd 05:29 GMT August 5, 2014
AUD/USD Gains Capped Post-RBA on Weak China PMI, Risk Sentiment
Reply   
he Australian dollar slipped as low as 0.9315 from 0.9327 against the greenback Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains its cash rate at 2.5% as widely expected. The currency pair has since rebounded to as high as 0.9342. Further upside in spot AUD/USD may encounter resistance at 0.9347 (38.2% Fibonacci correction of 0.9470-0.9272 July 24-Aug. 1 decline). AUD/USD gains Tuesday are likely to be limited for now after the HSBC China services PMI falls to a record low of 50.0 in July from 53.1 in June, and risk sentiment sours:

GVI Forex Blog 04:39 GMT August 5, 2014 Reply   
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,930 ***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** -

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China HSBC Services PMI hits record low; Australia posts another trade deficit - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:38 GMT August 5, 2014 Reply   
The big event today is the RBI Credit Policy and that would determine the short term

Morning Briefing : 05-Aug-2014 -0338 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:18 GMT August 5, 2014
AceTrader Aug 5: Market Review & data to be released today
Reply   

Market Review - EUR/USD

EUR/USD - ... Yesterday on Europe closing saw the single currency traded narrowly on Monday after Fri's strong rebound to 1.3445. Euro ratcheted lower from last Fri's NY high at 1.3445 to 1.3409/10 in New York b4 recovering. Some bids are now reported at 1.3410-05 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3430-40, however, trading was subdued as investors are waiting for the ECB's rate decision on Thursday.
Earlier Fed issued a statement, quote:
banks eased lending standards for many loan categories amid broad-based pickup in loan demand in 3-month period to July;
many banks eased standards on prime residential home loans;
little change in standards for other household loans; domestic banks eased lending standards for commercial/industrial, most types of commercial real estate loans;
banks saw stronger demand for many more loan categories that in April survey - quarterly senior loan officers survey.


Tuesday will see the release of Australia’s import, export and trade balance, Japan’s services PMI, China HSBC services PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, German and Eurozone Markit services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, U.S. redbook, U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, durable goods and factory orders.

GVI Forex 01:44 GMT August 5, 2014
Australia
Reply   
MNI: AUSTRALIA JUNE TRADE BALANCE -A$1.7B; MNI MEDIAN -A$1.9B

GVI Forex 01:36 GMT August 5, 2014
Israelis, Palestinians set to launch 72-hour truce in monthlong war
Reply   
Israel and Islamist Hamas were expected to hold their fire for three days starting on Tuesday, under terms of an Egyptian-brokered truce, while launching negotiations to cement a long-term deal to end a four-week Gaza war.

Israelis, Palestinians set to launch 72-hour truce in monthlong war

GVI Forex Blog 01:17 GMT August 5, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Major currencies in holding pattern as post-jobs lull sets in

* Dollar index holds below 10-1/2 month peak

* RBA policy review next in focus, no policy action expected

FOREX-Dollar sits near highs as rally pauses, RBA in focus

Syd 01:10 GMT August 5, 2014
ASX200 Risk To The Downside
Reply   
Friday's sell-off opens up the likelihood of further net selling for the ASX200.

link

sd sf 00:29 GMT August 5, 2014
Morning
Reply   
We probably had the worst price pattern possible in the GBP

instead of testing 16780 and bouncing quickly to 16880-90 we based @10 and sloppily moved up allowing some stale longs to slow the rise.

obviously some people took to heart what SYD posted yesterday on the shadow MPC.

this morning bots have been offering 62-64

EurUsd

seeing nothing much here just selling this morning @23

EurCad GbpCad - no orders in those today

Don't have any thoughts myself till the Aud Data is resolved.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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