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Forex Forum Archive for 08/06/2014

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Mtl JP 23:55 GMT August 6, 2014
Obama to Speak

nothing to see ... nothing to hear... nothing new... move on

GVI Forex john 22:39 GMT August 6, 2014
Obama to Speak

Q&A so far Ive heard nothing ew

GVI Forex john 22:20 GMT August 6, 2014
Obama to Speak

Nothing market-moving yet. Comments about African Summit in DC.

GVI Forex john 22:15 GMT August 6, 2014
Obama to Speak

finally 45 mins late.

GVI Forex john 21:48 GMT August 6, 2014
Obama to Speak
Reply   
He is at least 30 mins past his scheduled time. Typical. No idea when he will finally appear. News anchors trying to fill the time. Sooner or later they will just not put him on.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:18 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

There has not been a serious correction in the EURUSD for the move from 1.3648 (July 9 high) it has been more of a slow grind lower. It would have to get through 1.3402 (61.8% of 1.3445-1.3333) to increase the retracement risk (1.3389 = 50%). Key levels are at 1.3445 and 1.3475-83

On downside, 1.3333 (Thurs low) is key support and 1.3294 target remains on the radar as long as below 1.3475-00..

Only reason for EURUSD to go higher is a market that is very short and betting on corrections has not worked for almost a month. .

Mtl JP 21:15 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

red you precise choice is uncanny ...
20 day 0.9371
50 day 0.9372

london red 20:40 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

JP, i am watching 50 day on a closing basis. for me a close abv brings 9500 back into play with 9400/10 interim. its not my base view, but aussie is possibly strongest of the other majors, as yet to really price in even neutral rates/higher rates and coming off the back of a huge downtrend.

Mtl JP 20:33 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

just as u posted the Global-View Chart Points update, I had a hunch to go see ahead of the asia pacific session where the audusd Pivot might be.

Tallinn viies 20:29 GMT August 6, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
euro bounce today suprise me and now a bit tricky to keep short position. would like to trail buy stop to 1.3395 but also would like sell again at 200 ma on hourlies. I guess too early to bring stop lower

GVI Forex john 20:27 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY AUGUST 7, 2014
AU Employment
GB Bank of England
EZ Europe Cntl Bank
US Initial Claims
CA Ivey PMI
FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr ending at 2.473% 1bp
big range today. ti gut below 2.44% earl on.

GVI Forex john 19:37 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




Paris ib 18:39 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

50 is probably a bit far for USD/JPY. And 120? I doubt it.
80 is where we were and probably where we're going.
What that means for the U.S. economy is simple: foreign finance is no longer available.
All that talk about this economic recovery will need to be revised downwards. But that does not mean the FED can do anything but tighten. No foreign money means the U.S. has to get by with domestic cash. So you get higher interest rates to promote savings and quash demand for loans. And to keep the USD from imploding. Interesting times.

london red 18:22 GMT August 6, 2014
cable

any rally should top between 16940 and 17050. downside break of 16810 brings 16780/50 into play. then people start looking at 16630/40.

SaaR KaL 18:17 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY from 98 are into 120
after that is a big big mess
USDJPY heads for 50 area
4 years tgt
Talk about finacial crisis
Obama walks with credit
on USDJPY and Stock Market
The dude after him will inherit a disaster...and wont be able to do anything

GVI Forex Blog 18:14 GMT August 6, 2014
U.S. Trade To Help 2Q14 GDP Revisions. German Orders and UK Output Miss. Italy in Recession?
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Claims, CA- Ivey PMI

On Thursday, Key Australian employment data will be followed by UK and ECB monetary policy decisions. The June U.S.trade deficit was smaller than expected and should add 3-4 basis points to the next revision of 2Q14 GDP.

U.S. Trade To Help 2Q14 GDP Revisions. German Orders and UK Output Miss. Italy in Recession?

SaaR KaL 18:05 GMT August 6, 2014
cable

Red
Hi
What do you think of this Please?
rest of the cable will short from
1.6903 to 1.7018
tgt 1.6672

from 1.66 tgt 1.82 (11 week)

Sound reasonable?
TIA

SaaR KaL 17:57 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

gold 1250 area to long for 1400 then 800 for a year

is good

SaaR KaL 17:57 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

gold 1250 area to long for 1400 then 800 for a year

is good

london red 17:56 GMT August 6, 2014
cable
Reply   
cable 100 day ma pivot @66

SaaR KaL 17:55 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

gold 1250 area to long for 1400 then 800 for a year

is good

SaaR KaL 17:45 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD
Same thing
from 1.0900 to 1.11
1.12 (Maybe)
South to 1.04
then all the way to 1.22

SaaR KaL 17:40 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Guys
USDJPY from 102.7 to 104
SOuth to 98 for a base
to tgt 120 this year
its not like it will do the 120 on few weeks

Paris ib 17:32 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

But I would like to hear a convincing explanation of what this long expected real (as opposed to merely speculative) capital inflow is supposed to be attracted to in the United States? Where is it coming from and in what is it going to be invested in?

SaaR KaL 17:32 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP
this guys will beaten up so bad

shorts from 0.7965 to 0.8022
tgt .7840

I see easily .77 in a Month
0.76 in 2 months
11 weeks tgt is .73

Paris ib 17:29 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

Well if that's the best they can come up with let's go with that: fat finger. USD fails to rally despite the fact that every pundit out there is telling us it should, the market is set up for it, recent statistics encourage USD buying and a wall of real money inflows is about to arrive NOW (after a long fruitless wait) just in time to keep the U.S. economy and all those speculative USD longs from hitting a wall. Right. If you're happy with that. I can live with it.

london red 17:27 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

200 day ma. I mentioned earlier what would happen on a break. The "fat finger" was possibly clever in giving it a nudge. Positioning just added to the fall.

London Misha 17:27 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

Thanks John - appreciate it!

GVI Forex john 17:23 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

Misha, my sources confirm 30K contracts. I agree it was more likely a mistake than market manipulation. These kinds of trades are always investigated.

Paris ib 17:15 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

With the market sitting on a mountain of speculative long USD positions you don't need much to make a move.

London Misha 17:12 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

I think you read too much into it! Experience suggests people are usually stupid rather than manipulative in such circumstances!

Paris ib 17:11 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

Fat finger my @ss. Let's talk the snowflake principal.

Central Kwun 17:10 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!

Fat finger? US is manipulate the markets to kills those short JPY

London Misha 17:08 GMT August 6, 2014
USDJPY fat finger!
Reply   
Hearing talk that the drop in USDJPY was due to a fat finger trade on Sep IMM JPY futures! Allegedly 27,000 contract were bought in one hit - only talk at the moment!

Livingston nh 17:04 GMT August 6, 2014
Transition Market
Reply   
Stox drop - Bonds rally (i.e. yields lower) - FED spikes Punchbowl for 8 yrs

Bonds drop (i.e. yields Higher) - Stox drop -- Fed scrambles as booze runs out (can't cut rates, QE victim of 3 strikes and you're out)

Bonds drop further - Stox rally - Fed panics

NY JM 17:03 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

JPY correlation algos must have choked

Amman wfakhoury 16:48 GMT August 6, 2014
GBPUSD 16810 confirmed

any rise above 16847 will return to it

SaaR KaL 16:42 GMT August 6, 2014
Buy Gold

I am Short for 1273

Central Kwun 16:40 GMT August 6, 2014
Buy Gold
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: 1305.5 Target: Stop: 1295

any news on non USD? All spike up suddenly

SaaR KaL 16:39 GMT August 6, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
USDCAD Longs
from 1.0927 to 1.0849
tgt 1.1100

london red 16:38 GMT August 6, 2014
BOE raise rate

Porto 0%. dissenters 1 or 2 maybe.

SaaR KaL 16:34 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

GBPCHF
Longs
and Major
from 1.5270 to 1.5150
tgt 1.5520

Livingston nh 16:33 GMT August 6, 2014
BOE raise rate

Probably less than 5% - have to wait a few weeks to see Minutes for Dissenter politics

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:32 GMT August 6, 2014
BOE raise rate

0% of a rate hike.

Porto Cubriclas 16:31 GMT August 6, 2014
BOE raise rate
Reply   
Hi.
Which are the odds of tomorow BOE raise interest rates? More or less then 50%?

london red 16:31 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

Kevin I had that some time before the move. maybe a late reaction.

SaaR KaL 16:28 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

AUDUSD small short
tgt 0.9290

Paris ib 16:28 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

USD/JPY ? I don't buy that.

HK Kevin 16:27 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

Is it related to the news of Putin announces the ban of agriculture imports from European countires

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:27 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

Market is not used to the volatility but we can get used to it -- mini flash crash

Paris ib 16:25 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

Bit too choppy for me.

london red 16:22 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits

sometimes its better to just say who gives a damn. if it moves trade it.
question is will 200 day be retaken. if not, then risk of more.

Paris ib 16:20 GMT August 6, 2014
Waiting for the pundits
Reply   
Can't wait to see how they explain the recent USD sell off. USD/JPY is significant.

SaaR KaL 16:19 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

Longing USDJPY around here
tgt 103.5

UK JY 16:19 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JPY news?????????????????????

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:03 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

There was a post on GVI Forex earlier about large unhedged eurjpy long positions

Paris ib 16:00 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

What gets me is the existence of all these doom and gloomer websites in the United States. These people who collect every single bad news story and magnify it to the power of a billion. What gives with that? Why the stock up on tuna fish and bullets tone of that stuff? I seriously do not understand. Does it mean anything at all or is it just some kind of weird cultural sideshow in the States? At any given time you can find thousands of commentators telling you why it's all going to hell in a hand basket probably tomorrow. Bit freaking insane.

Paris ib 15:56 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

red - ain't it always so? The market always moves to where it makes the maximum damage. Funny little moment. Nikkei looks sad, to say the least and USD/JPY won't help. It will be interesting to see how it moves overnight. At any rate right now it seems like 'pause for reflection / retrace' is the name of the game in most markets. So I guess we pause and reflect. Not a lot of fun.

london red 15:52 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ib that much is clear, it indicates that another hit to risk and chances are those longs will start to get culled instead of added to.

Paris ib 15:47 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

No reaction to dollar dip because the market is already long USD IMVHO.

london red 15:45 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

1932 fib s&p currently caps. failure to clear keeps pressure on downside.
todays 10 year high today could be the top for some time (high of right shs). this requires no further escalation of ukraine/russia.
dollar as there is an outside chance of a point higher to top of longer term range. profits have been taken on fx performers (long usdcad,short nzdusd,long usdjpy and to lesser extent shorts in cable and euro) possibly due to margins calls elsewhere. interestingly this dollar dip hasnt been picked up by buyers yet even though stocks managed to rally and bonds fall.

Paris ib 15:43 GMT August 6, 2014
End of the world, or not?
Reply   
So where do we go from here? Do we react to war games in the Ukraine (invasion and so on and so forth), Ebola in Africa and possibly in New York and London, the Middle East in flames with ISIS running amok, economic collapse in Europe as... well as Europe stops producing and exporting anything at all (maybe) as a result of a break down in trade due to sanctions against Russia.... add what you want. EUR and JPY shorts look huge to me but the rationale behind them looks strained. What are we supposed to think? That massive amounts of capital is going to move to the United States because European and Japanese savers decide that is the safe place to keep money? That hasn't happened over the past few years. Even if relative economic growth is supposed to favour the United States I don't see how that can do much more that favour the build up of speculative long USD positions (which have already built up). Real capital flows? No I don't think so. Not in this environment of distrust and fear. No sign of real flows in the data.

dc CB 15:40 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

ZeroHedge links to latest TBAC.

Every quarter, as part of the Treasury's refunding announcement, the TBAC, aka the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee shares some critical insight into what Wall Street's banks are really thinking in a private head to head with the US Treasury.

TBAC Issues Loudest Warning Yet: "This Stage Of Policy Should Lead To Increased Uncertainty And Risk."

GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets are in a mixed risk posture today as of the European close. We saw disappointing data releases from the EZ and UK. U.S. equities have rallied. EURUSD is  soft into the ECB decision tomorrow. No new policy decisions are expected.  Is 1.3400 now a ceiling?.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on weak data and falling share prices. Yields on the European periphery are up. The.EZ 10-yr is 1.11%, -6bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.52%  -6bp following weak output data and a soft FTSE.  A +25bp BOE rate hike is seen by end-2014.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.46%, -2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed lower. Bourses in Europe ending down. U.S. share futures are up modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


dc CB 15:16 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Bank of America said on Wednesday that it would increase it dividend for the first time in seven years, after the Federal Reserve blessed its revised plan to weather a severe financial storm.

The bank said its quarterly dividend would increase to 5 cents a share from 1 cent a share.

With Fed’s Blessing, Bank of America to Raise Dividend

Paris ib 15:12 GMT August 6, 2014
Global Markets News

FWIW in this propaganda war.

Russia Denies Build UP

GVI Forex Blog 15:10 GMT August 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Poor German manufacturing data and negative Italy GDP numbers further underlined the EU's tenuous economic situation, sending European indices deep into the red. In addition, Ukraine tensions have returned to a boil as Russia bulks up forces on its border with Ukraine, raising fears that an invasion under the pretext of a "humanitarian intervention" is imminent. US stocks dipped in the first 30 minutes of trade but are back to unchanged. As of writing, all three major US indices are up slightly.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Mull Merger Meltdowns

Paris ib 15:00 GMT August 6, 2014
Doomsday delayed?
Reply   
Yesterday's stock market sell off seems to have been driven largely by the headlines that Russia was going to invade... the Ukraine? Or something like that. Russia denies the news that they have built up troops on the border. I have no idea I don't live there. Meanwhile in the Anglo Saxon press there are sly little digs at Angela Merkel (who speaks fluent Russian) and Germany (who reportedly actually export stuff to Russia - the shock, the horror) while there are reports that some sort of a DEAL in being discussed between (why I'd never guess) between Russia and Germany. Statistics in Europe haven't been brilliant but they haven't been uniformly awful either but the market is overwhelmingly bearish EUR and bullish the USD (also against the JPY). These trades don't seem to be bearing all that much fruit. And - bar more shock horror headlines and / or another false flag event - perhaps the big surprise will be a bounce back in European stock markets and the Euro. Certainly it seems to me this might have been a dress rehearsal but right now it's more likely we retrace some ground and consider where the economy and the geopolitical landscape is actually heading.

One trend? The ongoing reduction in current account imbalances across the globe and the implicit reduction in international capital flows that that necessarily implies. Everybody goes home for a rethink.

One stock that caught my eye yesterday was Credit Agricole. Shock Horror headlines and the stock actually closed the day nearly 3% higher.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:00 GMT August 6, 2014
Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Power of 50

A very timely article... EURUSD currently 1.3355, USDJPY sub-102.50, etc

GVI Forex john 14:33 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly EIA Crude
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -1.750 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -3.700 prev.
Gasoline: -4.390 vs. -1.500 exp vs. +0.360 prev.
Distillates: -1.890 vs. 0.000 exp vs. +0.790 prev.
Cap/Util: -92.4% vs. 93.0% exp vs. 93.50% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 14:20 GMT August 6, 2014 Reply   
August 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Claims, CA- Ivey PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 7, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT August 6, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Employment, DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Claims, CA- Ivey PMI

  • Far East: AU- Employment.
  • Europe: DE- Industrial Output, GB- BOE Decision EZ- ECB Decision
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Nat Gas, CA- Ivey PMI


Livingston nh 14:11 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Yesterday afternoon was US stox move - EUR stox missed the move so some weakness expected and then o/n data pushed Europe down -- so far in US just a "fade the open" bounce -- bond market recovery because end of world postponed again // US stox to be judged this afternoon if rates rise again

GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.455% -1.5bp

I believe we got down to below 2.440% earlier in the U.S. session following the rocky European start, but so far the U.S. has not been following the direction of European shares. They are now recovering a bit.

dc CB 13:59 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



POMO today $1.40 - $1.70 billion

almost 200K Emini SnPs thrown in the first 20 mins of Cash trade.

Walgreens: the price of Not Inverting

GVI Forex john 13:57 GMT August 6, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
S&P rallies pulling USDJPY higher. correlation trade back on.

NY JM 13:50 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Stock market roulette correlation day, especially if you trade the jpy

GVI Forex john 13:10 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade

Smaller trade gap should add 3-4 tenths to 2Q14 GDP revision. Not sure how other items will impact.

GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade

U.S. Trade Deficit improves. Good for 2Q14 GDP.

Paris ib 12:48 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

I heard a Stockman interview yesterday where he was talking of markets with no-one on the other side. No bids. Flash crash? Or just crash? We'll see. Certainly a possibility.

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade

Smaller trade gap better for GDP (a trade deficit is a subtraction from GDP).

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 U.S. (USD bn) and Canadian (CAD bn) Trade
Reply   




ALERT
-41.5 vs. -44.5 exp. vs. -44.4 (-44.7) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
+1.9 vs. -0.15 exp. vs. -0.64 prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:18 GMT August 6, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURJPY

1.3294 has been targeted since the breakout below 1.3475 (as per my video updates)

London Chris 12:17 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

What are the odds of a flash crash? I hear talk about liquidity concerns in some markets like corporate bonds.

Amman wfakhoury 12:15 GMT August 6, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURJPY

EURUSD is heading twd 13200 unless it breaks up 13360 and 13400

Livingston nh 12:10 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Away from the EUR/majors -- EUR is holding well against other European currencies - EM currencies in general being battered over the past couple of weeks // Russia for some? US Taper and tightening for others? Mid-east turmoil? (Turkey seems lucky enough to have a bit of all 3)

Mtl JP 12:02 GMT August 6, 2014
Why the EURUSD Should Move Lower

the EURO should be lower (against ___ ) because Draghi thinks it is the solution to European wows and because price inflation - if he can get it - is peddled to the sheeple by the economist experts as "economic growth"

“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” ― Emile Gauvreau

“The world has changed” - Sara Stevens

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:40 GMT August 6, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURJPY
Reply   


EURUSD needs to hold the 136.30 area to prevent a meltdown risk

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:21 GMT August 6, 2014
Why the EURUSD Should Move Lower

In posted this last night and see the key reason why risk will stay on the downside

See my view and read

Why the EURUSD Should Move Lower

GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT August 6, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:33 GMT August 6, 2014
Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Power of 50

Very timely article and strongly suggest reading it

My latest article: Suggested reading + a video illustration

Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Power of 50

Paris ib 10:30 GMT August 6, 2014
The Reset
Reply   
The July 2014 reset was in stocks? Could someone ring Lagarde and ask?

GVI Forex Blog 10:21 GMT August 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP currency was softer after Jun Industrial Production data came in below expectations. The data followed a record decline in July BRC Shop prices and highlighted that despite strengthening growth there was no inflation pressures and would back the arguments against rate hikes from the BoE in 2014

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy enters back into a technical recession; other EU data releases disappoint

SaaR KaL 10:05 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

trying some day trades on eurnzd
1.5814 tgt 1.5930

SaaR KaL 09:54 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

gold shorts
1293...will add for tgt 1984
next day will short at 1296 for same tgt

GVI Forex john 09:52 GMT August 6, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly weaker after data and into the ECB decision tomorrow. Spot to 20-day averages have been turning mixed with EUR losing less vs. USD than others.




SaaR KaL 09:50 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

eurgbp...day trade
.7940 to .7880
for us session IMO


gbpchf
would not be surprised to see it 1.54 today

Amman wfakhoury 09:42 GMT August 6, 2014
GBPUSD 16810 confirmed
Reply   
16810 confirmed will be reached ..16847 return level any rise above it will return to it.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT August 6, 2014
Large German Miss on Factory Orders. Italy in Recession? UK Data Miss. U.S./CA Trade Due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Trade

Italian 2Q14 GDP were negative and weaker than expected This put the economy into a "technical" recession of two negative quarters in a row. U.K. June output data fell short of expectations, and German factory orders were much weaker than expected.

Large German Miss on Factory Orders. Italy in Recession? UK Data Miss. U.S./CA Trade Due

SaaR KaL 09:34 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

closed 70% of cable shorts
will short more at 1.6920

london red 09:32 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

yen 200 hour now testing. 200 day at 25. if that breaks expect to see 101.80 v soon as plenty of losing longs north of there. if we get a clean move thru 200 hour then 200 day ought to hold into afternoon trade and yen being yen, bounce to 40/50 not ruled out.

SaaR KaL 09:31 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

not sure about day trade eurusd
seems 1.3380 to 1.3320
is likely for us session

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT August 6, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Markets are in a definitive risk-off posture early in the European session, following disappointing data releases from the EZ and UK..The  EURUSD is looking soft into the ECB decision tomorrow. No new policy decisions are expected. Is 1.3400 now a ceiling?.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on weak data and foaling share prices  higher. Yields on the European periphery are up. The. EZ 10-yr  is 1.14%, -3bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.55%  -3bp following weak output data and a softer FTSE.  A +25bp BOE rate hike is still seen by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.47%, -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed  lower. Bourses in Europe are down sharply. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 09:15 GMT August 6, 2014
Italy in Recession?
Reply   
Italy Preliminary 2Q GDP -0.2% On Qtr; -0.3% On Year. Final 1Q GDP Revised Up to -0.4% On Yr, From -0.5%.

2Q data weaker than expected. Italy is one of the EZ "Big Four" economies. EUR negative.

bad day for EZ shares

PAR 09:14 GMT August 6, 2014
ITALY

Italian GDP has fallen for 11 of the past 12 quarters

PAR 09:11 GMT August 6, 2014
ITALY
Reply   
Despite ( or because of ) Draghi s all extraordinary and
unventional measures Italy slides back into recession .

Renzi is more about paroles , paroles , paroles than concrete measures .

GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

red fair point mfg vs Service sectors. Personally I feel mfg sectors are more sensitive to business cycle. True for U.S. as well. There is no doubt the economic statistics are too heavily weighted toward mfg sectors.

london red 08:54 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

negligible minus effect on gdp revision. services provide bulk of gdp growth. not bad enough to move cable under 6810 support but likely to keep it any rallies at bay for now.
eurgbp res at 7940/42. supp 7915

GVI Forex john 08:52 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 German Factory Orders

German Factory Orders earlier were much weaker than expected. EURUSD negative into ECB decision tomorrow.

SaaR KaL 08:49 GMT August 6, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner

still short cable, Gold, EURGBP, GBPAUD

still long NDX, AUDCHF

staying that way

placed shorts EURUSD
1.3435 to 1.3492
can't short here

GVI Forex john 08:49 GMT August 6, 2014
July 2014 Swiss CPI



EARLIER: Swiss June CPI back at 0.00% y/y. deflation?

GVI Forex john 08:40 GMT August 6, 2014
July 2014 Swiss CPI
Reply   




--EARLIER DATA NEWS--
mm: -0.4% vs.-0.4% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: 0.0% vs. 0.0% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output

Miss on UK output data. This is consistent with weaker manufacturing PMI data recently.

Service PMI has been strong. So a mixed picture for UK data.

GBP weaker.

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Ind mm: +0.30% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -0.70% (r 0.60%) prev.
Ind yy: +1.20% vs. +3.25% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.

Mfg mm:+0.30% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. -1.30% prev.
Mfg yy: +1.90% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +3.70% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:27 GMT August 6, 2014
June 2014 German Factory Orders
Reply   



EARLIER NEWS ALERT
mm -3.2% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. -1.80% (r -1.7) prev.
yy -2.40% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +5.50% (r+7.70% ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 08:23 GMT August 6, 2014
uk
Reply   
cable chased down this morning and with good reason. ip and mp up soon. i am expecting a small miss on both, external factors are at work in european data and similar expected here.
eurgbp. held 7915 support to keep alive inverted shs. below 15 suggests a test of 7900 and a resumption of bear trend.
cable res remains at 90 and the 80 day ema. these will likely be sold into as market remains keen on buying dollar dips. this afternoons trdae deficit from US could be a risk for dollar bulls so cable may not pierce 16810 for long if at all.

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:16 GMT August 6, 2014
AceTrader Aug 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

06 Aug 2014 06:04GMT

EUR/USD - ... Euro penetrates Tue's near 8-month low at European open after German factory orders fell sharply below street forecast (Jun's 3.2% drop was the biggest in nearly 3 years). Stops below 1.3350 are now in focus, however, as mentioned earlier, there has been an option barrier at 1.3350, so a firm break of this lvl needed to extend recent downtrend to 1.3320/30.

Offers have been lowered to 1.3370/80 n more abv with stop abv 1.3400/05.

German Jun industrial orders -3.2% m/m, worse than the expectation of up 1.0%, prev. reading revised up -1.6% fm -1.7%.
Germany's Economy minister said geopolitical developments n risks led to cautious ordering, industrial growth ti be moderate in coming months.

PAR 07:47 GMT August 6, 2014
Russia
Reply   
Sanctions against Russia already huting the European economy . Not much Draghi can do .

Also negative deposit rates at ECB making the financial system more unstable as periheral banks ( like Espirto , Monte Paschi & co ) park their money in riskier investments .

Auckland 07:24 GMT August 6, 2014
6/8/2014 Gold and silver analysis MMI GROUP
Reply   
6/8/2014 Gold and silver analysis
MMI GROUP
Gold

Strong U.S. data support the market's expectations of the rising fed interest rates in advance. Reaction is not strong of gold, and silver is affected by this apparent under pressure
According to data from the monitoring of Gold ETFs On 6 Aug, until 5 Aug, Gold holding of Gold ETF Gold Trust is about 1309.82 tons, compared with the previous unchanged.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team think gold is the contraction of oscillation, if it effectively breaks up and goes up of the contraction along the triangular, it may again test the first line of 1324.80, on the other hand, it effectively break down and go down the contraction along the triangular, it will test the first line of 1268.40.
The upward resistance: 1297.40, 1312.30, 1324.80.
The downward support: 1280.20, 1268.40, 1258.60.

Silver:
Silver, according to data released Trust on 6 Aug, on 5 Aug, Silver Trust Silver holdings is 10010.25 tons, compared with the previous unchanged; the silver holdings worth fell to $6.501 billion.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team think the silver out of a downward rally last week, now it touch along under short-term downlink channel, if can effectively break down, it may test the first line of 19.40, it give priority to with short thinking at present, it build shorts on the high position, if it effectively break up along the downlink channel, it may consider long engagement
The upward resistance: 20.30, 20.60, 21, 21.30.
The below support: 19.70, 19.40, 18.80.

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

london red 07:09 GMT August 6, 2014
yen
Reply   
usdjpy pierces hourly trendline (52). if sticks then risk to 200 hour and 200 day ma's.

GVI Forex Blog 05:43 GMT August 6, 2014 Reply   
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.6% V 5.8%E; EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 4.0%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.6%E; PRIVATE WAGES EX-OVERTIME

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Sprint ends T-Mobile takeover process; NZD hits 2-month lows after another price decline in dairy auction and soft wage growth - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:05 GMT August 6, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16429.47, -0.84%) fell again after the pause just as expected and reached closer to the

Morning Briefing : 06-Aug-2014 -0404 GMT

Mtl JP 03:53 GMT August 6, 2014
Houses for sale.

dc CB 02:00 that crock of fear crap is getting jaded. The laughable jobs recovery peddled by 0 and his sycophantic minions, paidoff economist and discredited media shills is just croccodile tears elliciting little to no sympathy.

One of these days players will realize that “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley and that the debt fueled orgy facilitade by Greenspan, Bernanke, Krugman & the rest of the Federal Reserve brother/sisterhood has run out of steam and all that is left is the largest mountain of debt in human history - a gutted and debt laden former middle class and millions of easy money policies enabled Americans who lived far beyond their true means through credit card debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, and home equity debt.

And now the peddlers of false illusion of wealth and foolish spending are haunting real-estate industry ?

bahahahaha, pass me another Depends

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:12 GMT August 6, 2014
AceTrader Aug 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

06 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback went through a roller-coaster session on Tue. Although price found renewed buying at 102.46 in Asia n climbed steadily in Europe due to recovery in the Nikkie future, price then hit session high of 102.93 after the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. data (ISM non-manufacturing PMI n factory orders), active cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion due to sell off in U.S. equities on renewed geopolitical tension in the Ukraine pressured price sharply lower to 102.48ahead of NY close b4 staging a minor recovery to 102.64 in Australia.

Today, range trading is envisaged n intra-day broad-based strength in the greenback suggests mild upside bias remains. However, do pay attention to the U.S. trade balance at 12:30GMT as market forecast for the deficit figure to widen to $44.7 bln vs prev. reading of $44.4 bln. A narrowing of the deficit may give dlr a lift. Bids are noted at 102.40-35 with stops below 102.30, however, more buying interest is reported at 102.10-00. On the upside, offers are placed at 102.70/75 n then 102.90-00 with stops touted above 103.00.


Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance.

dc CB 02:00 GMT August 6, 2014
Houses for sale.
Reply   
One of the biggest fears today in the real-estate industry goes something like this: Rising student debt is going to freeze millennials out of the housing market.

Data from a top national lender shows that loan applicants with student loans aren’t being turned down more often than those without debt.

“Between the approved universe and the denied universe, the [borrower’s] credit is the same. The fundamental difference is a few hundred dollars in student loan debt that pushed the debt-to-income above the approved threshold,”

How Student Loans Are Shaping Mortgage Approvals

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:21 GMT August 6, 2014
Why the EURUSD Should Move Lower
Reply   
See my view and readp>Why the EURUSD Should Move Lower

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:46 GMT August 6, 2014
Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Power of 50
Reply   
My latest article: Suggested reading + a video illustration

Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Power of 50

GVI Forex Blog 00:28 GMT August 6, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index reaches 11-month high on upbeat U.S. data

* U.S. services industry activity at 8-1/2-year high in July

* Euro falls to nine-month lows, kiwi also under pressure

FOREX-Dollar regains momentum on upbeat data, euro skids

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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