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Forex Forum Archive for 08/07/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd 22:52 GMT August 7, 2014
Junk-bond funds see record $7.1 billion outflow
Reply   
Investors pulled a record $7.1 billion from junk bond funds during the past week, marking an acceleration in the pace of withdrawals as the market for low-rated corporate debt experiences turbulence, according to Barron's, which cited Lipper data. The outflows during the week ended Wednesday mark the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals. Retail investors have been leaving junk bond funds amid concerns about high prices in the market.

LINK

GVI Forex john 22:23 GMT August 7, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner -- Top Items
Reply   

FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT August 7, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

sd sf 21:15 GMT August 7, 2014
Friday
Reply   
another day of nothing really

the only model seeming to do well is Long Gold - most of the others have been quiet last 2 days.

it is Friday and the anti dollar move -- gbp 1.6940 and eur 1.3440 has failed to come along -- so I'm looking for abit of dollar buying to the end of NY just on position squaring if nothing else.

Also Yen crosses are a little heavy - and if $yen isn't going down then chances are the other currencies will have to move some.

Should be fairly easy to see if this would happen - eurusd probably fails @75 and gbp @45 .. if it goes above there then that is going to leave us in a flat range and waiting more news next week.

An early sign perhaps would be AUD weakening down to 50 in Asia that some USD movement could happen later in the Global Day.

See how it goes .. all the best.

Mtl JP 20:52 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

for evidence of fear I also watch Gold and dlryen dynamic
Gold would probably need to bust thru 1350
and dlryen sub 101 in a hurry to confirm fear presence

I dare say so far Vladimir has been very tolerant

london red 20:25 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

looking for it to be tested by US open/options cut at latest. needs early test to then fill in bar later. a fill in first increases chance of break higher when tested and an even more accelerated uptrend. of course for that kind of reaction it needs a big event to kick it off. if wrong and it breaks higher i prefer to sell dollar than to chase this as break would be fear based with no economic justification, making stop placing difficult.

Mtl JP 20:08 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



red thx. done added the line and
noted your trade idea

Lahore FM 19:57 GMT August 7, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 15:56:30 GMT - 07/03/2014

Sell Crude
Entry: 104.43 Target: Stop: 104.43 for half
Lahore FM 17:31 GMT July 2, 2014
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
Sell Crude
Entry: 104.43 Target: 95 Stop: 106.60

sold crude now..can be a fairly good short.

let's see!
--
half short out now 103.74 sl to entry on rest of it.
--------------------------------------------------------
Below 96 its as deep as 75 a barrel on wekly charts.

GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr heading out at 2.415%

GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr heading out at 2.415%

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

dc CB - warning: put on your Depends diaper before uclick the link Canada refuses to ‘stand by in the face’ of Russian aggression, sends helmets, first-aid kits and sleeping bags to Ukraine

london red 19:43 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

incidentally, s&p marginally dipped under hourly trendline but now above. if they rally the top channel comes in currently abv 1920. failure to rally here sees a retest/then my target and id expect then a bounce from target.

Lahore FM 19:39 GMT August 7, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Buy OTHER
Entry: 19.98 Target: 30.00 Stop: 19.50

Long on silver now. Gold too ...probably soon.

GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT August 7, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:39 GMT August 7, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   
..

london red 19:37 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP, draw a line through 27/06 and 18/07 highs there and we are coming close to that line. tomorrow look for test. a break would mean something really is afoot. i will be selling that line. it may coincide with s&p ~1894

dc CB 19:32 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP
whot's up wid dis?

Canada stands w/ Ukraine.

Mtl JP 19:22 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



pic of 10-yr price action

GVI Forex john 19:01 GMT August 7, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




dc CB 18:59 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Auctions in US next week. All New Issues Tue, Wed, Thur
3s 27 Billion
10s 24 Billion
30s 16 Billion

war fear will do jus' fine thank you so much

london red 18:52 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

usdjpy. bit of support here down to 101.90. so some anaemic upside poss. maybe pissing into wind with 10 year at highs but they will likely test 200 day again tomorrow but 200 hour should cap until sentiment improves. next week focus returns to us data with sales due

dc CB 18:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq

Shares in energy companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan plummeted on news of the sweeping Islamist advance towards oilfields in the region.

U.S. oil major Chevron Corp said it was evacuating staff in light of the militants' advance, and an industry source said Exxon Mobil Corp was also pulling out staff, although the company declined comment on security concerns

Islamic State surges in North Iraq, near Kurdistan border

Mtl JP 18:48 GMT August 7, 2014
maybe Mario does not have a policy and maybe the FED has one .

Here is President Obama making world domination official U.S. policy:
"Apparently people have forgotten that America, as the most powerful country on earth, still does not control everything around the world." - washingtonpost august 1

GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Hard to understand, but 10-yr 2.428%

GVI Forex Blog 18:36 GMT August 7, 2014
ECB and BOE Policy Unchanged. Disappointing German Output and Australia Jobs Figures
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Trade, JP- BOJ, DE- Trade, GB- Trade, CA- Employment, US- Productivity

Friday sees trade reports from China, Germany and the U.K. Key July Canadian jobs data are also due. The BOE kept policy steady as expected. Its policy rationale is released two weeks following the policy decision announcement. The ECB made no policy changes but President Draghi made it clear once again that the ECB would like to see the EUR trade lower.

ECB and BOE Policy Unchanged. Disappointing German Output and Australia Jobs Figures

dc CB 18:26 GMT August 7, 2014
the FIRREA strategy
Reply   
Interesting short read here. Think "politics" here also. with the fall elections coming, might be time to show that Obama's DOJ will finally DO something. (Sorry Banks, you've lived it up, but we need to get democrats elected)
================================================

some experts believe DOJ has found a successful strategy that could wind up costing banks and the Wall Street firms that securitized and sold questionable mortgage securities an awful lot of money.

“The nice thing for them is that it has a ten-year statute of limitation,”

Justice Department’s “New Toy” Could Cost Wall Street Big Bucks

Mtl JP 17:39 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

ib 16:14 / yes, slightly longer term
wher do u see it by yr-end and next yr same month ?

dc CB 17:24 GMT August 7, 2014
"I can see Russia from my house" Sarah Palin
Reply   
The numerous flight encounters by Tu-95 Russian Bear H bombers prompted the scrambling of U.S. jet fighters on several occasions, and come amid heightened U.S.-Russia tensions over Ukraine. Also, during one bomber incursion near Alaska, a Russian intelligence-gathering jet was detected along with the bombers.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/7/russian-bombers-penetrated-us-airspace-least-16-ti/##ixzz39jCcM3m4
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

Russian bombers penetrated U.S. airspace at least 16 times in past 10 days

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq

including sending back 30-50,000 boots ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:17 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq

White House said every option is on the table.

SaaR KaL 17:13 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq

LOL
Airstrikes would be more like it

london red 16:42 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

s&p. might be a bridge too far for todays trade but 1894/93 fib and 144 ema, youd expect them to buy that dip if seen reasonably directly.

Paris ib 16:39 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq

Airstrikes or airdrops?

dc CB 16:38 GMT August 7, 2014
Back to Iraq
Reply   
President Obama is considering airstrikes or airdrops of food and medicine to address a humanitarian crisis among as many as 40,000 religious minorities in Iraq who have been dying of heat and thirst on a mountaintop after death threats from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, administration officials said on Thursday.

Obama Weighs Airstrikes or Aid to Help Trapped Iraqis, Officials Say

hk ab 16:27 GMT August 7, 2014
gold
Reply   
we shall see dlr/jpy plunge to 96 soon.... once that is broken, things are ugly and BOJ will pump crazy big time.......

Paris ib 16:14 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

JP - here is a slightly longer term chart.

USD Index

USD Index Chart

GVI Forex john 15:56 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.429%. Yields continue to fall.

Paris ib 15:50 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

The old USD/JPY fat finger !! Right. Far out sooner or later those long USD/JPY positions are gonna have to fold.

london red 15:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

fat finger time again lol

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

11:38 (US) PIMCO's Bill Gross: Russia/G7 trade war is getting ugly, EU is headed for recession, time to buy USTs

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Paris ib 15:48 GMT August 7, 2014
Stocks? The Big Capitulation?
Reply   
The German market is down 10% from its peak or thereabouts. Pretty much all European markets are down YTD. U.S. markets are hanging in there..... I'm not a stock market bull by any stretch of the imagination. I think global trade and global economic growth are likely to slide into year end. But I just can't get enthusiastic about shorting stocks right now. Just cowardice?

GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets in Europe remain in a risk-off posture into the European close on worry about developments related to Ukraine. Also President Draghi painted a gloomy picture about the European economy today. Draghi  talked down the EUR again .



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on weak German production data. Yields on the European periphery are higher. The.EZ 10-yr  is 1.07%, -4bp. Test od 1.00% possible?
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.50%  -2bp.  A +25bp BOE rate hike is seen by end-2014.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.45%, -1bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed  mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are miostly lower. U.S. share futures are down modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 15:37 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

If the Japanese Current Account has moved into deficit that is because the Capital Account is now in SURPLUS. They are taking money home. For whatever reason.

Japanese Current Account

Paris ib 15:33 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

JP that shows the USD has appreciated. It does not show that there are capital inflows into the United States. The Balance of Payments is always equal to zero. A current account deficit is offset by a capital account surplus and vice versa. As the U.S. current account shrinks that indicates that capital inflows into the United States are shrinking.

U.S. Current Account

Paris ib 15:29 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

Draghi can say whatever he likes Jay. The European Union has more or less a balanced current account and that has been the case for some time. So Capital isn't coming in and it isn't going out. Overseas we have the Japanese starting to run a Current Account deficit - so the Capital Account is now in surplus. Money is being repatriated. And in the U.S. the Current Account Deficit is shrinking fast, so that means Capital Account inflows are BY DEFINITION shrinking. Obviously Draghi thinks a weaker Euro is a good idea. Why? Does he think that is the answer? Is this beggar they neighbour? I mean the thinking is so PRIMITIVE it beggars belief. What exactly is the plan here? Seems to me no plan at all. All these guys are out of ideas in a BIG WAY. Flat lining brain activity.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:26 GMT August 7, 2014
Global-View = The Best
Reply   
I do not like to toot our own horn but in days like this I don't know of any other place where you get real time news, flow, discussion, trade ideas with high quality and without a limit on the # of characters or have to refresh to see the latest post.

it would be great if you could spread the word as we are going into expansion mode (stay tuned0.

Mtl JP 15:26 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin



chart showing that "USD buying which just isn't happening" just ain't so

Paris ib 15:24 GMT August 7, 2014
Central Banks
Reply   
Looks to me like Central Banks around the world have lost prestige and influence. Mostly the big question is not what they will or will not do next but what the h.ell are they doing and what drugs are they taking.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:24 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

If you look at crosses since the start of the year, it has been more of a EUR than USD story and that is likely to continue.

IB, Draghi indicated that capital flows are noi longer supporting the EUR.

USD bulls are waiting for interest rates to go up to support their cause.

london red 15:19 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

think the move is a bit stale in that once everyone is onto it, the market begins to hold up and stops come next. eurgbp suffered this crowded trade syndrome a while back.
and afterall rarely does anything move in a straight line. its not a great reason to buy it, but US yields keep leaking and we havent made a lower low yet. so covering down here makes sense. monthly candle could do with a bit of back up incidentally.

Paris ib 15:18 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

Jay have you seen the extent of the short Euro positions already in the market? The speculative market has anticipated a wave of USD buying which just isn't happening. Currencies aren't bets on relative interest rates or relative growth rates, they actually represent trade and capital flows. Trade flows are not USD favourable and capital flows in the United States aren't happening.

Mtl JP 15:15 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

the world, as Sara Stevens pointed out, has changed when social media trumps a reliable source like Mario who feels compelled to come out with increasingly clearer sentences.

social media is as disturbing to the overlords as Gutenberg's press was in the middle ages

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:11 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

red, are you or anyone else surprised eurusd is trading at ,.3350 and not 1.3250? It is consistent with the slow grind pattern and the fx tug-of-war.

london red 15:08 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

probably most liquid proxy has been pln. continues to post new lows v usd gbp and eur having broken some long terms res in the first two.

Paris ib 15:04 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

The people short stocks are playing the 'Russian' card. They'd probably be better off taking a shot at USD/JPY.

I wonder how Soros's billion dollar stock market PUT is going?

Soros and the Ukraine

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:00 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin

Hearing now Putin's office denying he is speaking. Good lesson to beware of the source of news in the social media world.

UK FXT 14:51 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

That is what PUT stands for in PUTin

GVI Forex 14:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

And stocks giving back gains... Europe lower

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

DE 10-yr now 1.0790%
Equities are falling

GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.451%. bonds starting to rally.

Mtl JP 14:47 GMT August 7, 2014
Your View: EURUSD Friday European Close

"few years ago would have" = nostalgic ?
-
“The world has changed" - 27yr old Sara Stevens advised the older folk

GVI Forex 14:44 GMT August 7, 2014
Putin
Reply   
Putin to address nation in emergency speech at 20:30pm moscow time / 12:30pm ny time (source Twitter)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:42 GMT August 7, 2014
Your View: EURUSD Friday European Close

Simply put, below or above 1.3350?

Agree, we should be already heading for 1.32.

Is There an Invisible Hand?

GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT August 7, 2014
Your View: EURUSD Friday European Close
Reply   
Closer to 1.3300 or to 1.3400?

My view is we could test below 1.3300 by the Friday London close, although I don't see any obvious market catalyst.

For the record, A few years ago we would have been below 1.3300 a millisecond after his comment.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:37 GMT August 7, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Weak EUR crosses create a USD tug-of-war. EURUSD 1.3350 still pivotal while within 1,33-1.34.

tokyo ginko 14:33 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

close all oil position @ 96.58

will look to short again..GT all

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT August 7, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+82 vs. +90 exp vs. +88 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:30 GMT August 7, 2014
cad

cad$ likely to react more (1.10) to tom's jobs data
08/08/14 12:30 A CA Jobless % 7.10% 7.10%
08/08/14 12:30 A CA Payrolls 25 -9.4
gv calendar

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI continues on a volatile path.


GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Canada Ivey PMI (s.a.)
Reply   




ALERT
54.1 vs. n/a exp. vs. 46.9 prev.

RELEASE: Ivey Purchasing Managers Report


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:01 GMT August 7, 2014
cad

ivy bang on expectation

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh- I keep hearing the bond market is trading on politics not economics.

Yes the two year (0.46%) is looking low to me.
July2015 Fed Funds futures (0.66%) are inconsistent with the 2yr?

london red 13:55 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

john, US officiallly still has a strong dollar policy. but it hasnt been openly confirmed by spokesman for a long time.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:53 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi Gives a Green Light Signal
Reply   
Is this the start of the next leg down? See my latest article

Draghi Gives a Green Light Signal

GVI Forex john 13:52 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

We cannot ignore the fact that Draghi explicitly talked down the EUR today. It seems that his comments are becoming clearer and clearer. There is little doubt that a weaker EUR is a policy objective of the central bank.

To the best of my knowledge, the U.S. does not have an operational USD policy.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:50 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

We gave you the smoking gun....

Livingston nh 13:49 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

John - I have been hearing/reading of a short squeeze if 10s drop below 2.40 -- ?? // two year seems mispriced given my bias

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

US 10-yr 2.476% +1.6bp
DE 10-yr 1.097% -1.3bp

london red 13:43 GMT August 7, 2014
cad
Reply   
ivey pmi shortly. you suspect some upside risk to number. but would be a dollar buyer sub 109 in the 10860-80 region.

Livingston nh 13:42 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

There's nobody in charge of EUR - too many conflicting ideologies - Draghi is stuck on a German tar baby -- look at ESB it fell to Portugal not ECB or the proposed agency/regulators to bail out // Event driven currency

GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

Pres Conference over Generally somber I would say.

london red 13:34 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

think if he sounded a bit more bearish overall it would allow that statement to have greater effect. still v guarded re qe.

Mtl JP 13:30 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

was his his bazooka believe me it will be enough statement not more explicit than the current one ?

so far Marios gumflap that "Fundamentals for a weaker exchange rate" has seen players give +/-20 pips to it.

It is not a good thing for a central banker to become "Scimmietta"

Livingston nh 13:26 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

The EUR floats on a sea of dollars

london red 13:25 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

right but market v short so thats probably why its not made a bigger impact for a pretty bold statement. essentially underlinging opposite direction of US and Euroland rates.

SaaR KaL 13:24 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

what he wants is not in his control
what the eurusd wants controls itself
he is just a insecure puppet...that wants credit.. :)

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

Mario is showing desperation

SaaR KaL 13:19 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD

				
Date Exp High Exp LoClose PI Close PI
7-Aug-14 1.0992 1.0931 1.1020 1.0855
8-Aug-14 1.1020 1.0956 1.1074 1.0884
9-Aug-14 1.1041 1.0980 1.1089 1.0909
10-Aug-14 1.1081 1.1022 1.1153 1.0952
11-Aug-14 1.1051 1.0988 1.1168 1.0887

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:18 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

It is the first time I have heard him make such an explicit statement. He is making a case for a weaker currency.

ottawa ottawa 13:16 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi

so does that mean he wants a weaker euro ????

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT August 7, 2014
Draghi
Reply   
ECB wants a weaker EUR:

Draghi: Fundamentals for a weaker exchange rate are much better than in past few months.

SaaR KaL 13:01 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

LMAO

Love you guys!!
have to eat now...talk in an hour or so

SaaR KaL 13:00 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Yeah Baby
Don mess with us at GVI
we kick ass baby

SaaR KaL 12:58 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

An egg is an egg
You fry it, you boil it, You scramble it
it is that same frekin egg...it wont change
explain your cousin for a fox... you think he would give a R azz?

Zurich EG 12:58 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Get the retracement ball rolling... or else!!!

Draghi is not giving any headline grabbers.

Mtl JP 12:53 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision

before UK election you have to deal with the Scot and Catalan separatists

SaaR KaL 12:50 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX
Everything is politicians (God, Church and Mosques)
there is nothing to do with Math
Politicans / Religion does everything for us

				
Date Exp High Exp Low Close PI Close PI
6-Aug-14 3,886 3,839 3,947 3,785
7-Aug-14 3,894 3,837 3,941 3,783
8-Aug-14 3,944 3,899 4,001 3,830
9-Aug-14 3,973 3,929 4,040 3,859
10-Aug-14 3,973 3,923 4,031 3,856
11-Aug-14 3,974 3,923 4,030 3,856
12-Aug-14 4,027 3,976 4,105 3,887
13-Aug-14 4,031 3,979 4,108 3,890

GVI Forex 12:45 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision

UK election

7 May 2015: The date of the next general election is set at 7 May 2015 after the Fixed Term Parliament Act was passed on 15 September 2011. The act provides for general elections to be held on the first Thursday in May every five years.

Livingston nh 12:44 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision

Unlike the Fed the BoE has a narrow window to hike before election - the weakness in Europe and the likely deterioration in EUR/GBP will affect export driven GDP -- Russian retaliation is just beginning

Cable has range traded below 89 day ema (1.6882) for the past week after this provided a major lt support - last week's close below wkly 21 ma was the first time in a year

1.6750 on the daily 144 ema if market starts believing no hike 'til post election

SaaR KaL 12:43 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

eurgbp

				
Date Exp High Exp Low Close PI Close PI
7-Aug-14 0.7971 0.7929 0.8000 0.7878
8-Aug-14 0.7977 0.7944 0.8022 0.7901
9-Aug-14 0.7977 0.7943 0.8022 0.7901
10-Aug-14 0.7957 0.7927 0.8020 0.7868
11-Aug-14 0.7960 0.7930 0.8023 0.7871

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT August 7, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly Jobless establishing below the 300K line?

Click on chart for ten-year history
PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

SaaR KaL 12:36 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY


Date Exp High Exp Low Close PI Close PI
Aug 7, 14 102.7539 102.0989 103.0405 101.4835
Aug 8, 14 103.3513 102.5890 103.7943 101.9207
Aug 11, 14 102.9874 102.4067 103.6831 101.7426
Aug 12, 14 102.4672 101.9936 103.3643 101.0641

SaaR KaL 12:33 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

cable


Date Exp High Exp Low Close PI Close PI
August 7, 2014 1.6863 1.6808 1.6947 1.6762
August 8, 2014 1.6798 1.6746 1.6871 1.6687
August 11, 2014 1.6758 1.6703 1.6858 1.6577
August 12, 2014 1.6898 1.6846 1.7128 1.6586

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT August 7, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
289K vs. 300K exp. vs. 302K (r 303 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.520 vs. 2.512 exp. vs. 2.539 (r 2.543 ) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 12:28 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD
Up to you



Date Exp High Exp Low Close PI Close PI
August 7, 2014 1.3413 1.3352 1.3441 1.3333
August 8, 2014 1.3390 1.3337 1.3442 1.3317
August 11, 2014 1.3322 1.3273 1.3423 1.3173
August 12, 2014 1.3445 1.3410 1.3616 1.3239

GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

S&P has turned higher and giving USDJPY a modest lift.

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT August 7, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly higher into the ECB press conference. Spot to 20-day averages have turned mixed. EURAUD gain has to do with weak Australian employment data today not EUR.





GVI Forex john 11:49 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 European Central Bank (ECB)

No surprises from the ECB. Press Conference at 12:30 GMT could reveal new information about the current thinking at the central bank.

GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 European Central Bank (ECB)
Reply   




NEWS ALERT

Refi Rate unchanged (0.15%)
Marginal Lending Rate unchanged (0.65%)
Deposit Rate unchanged (-0.10%)


Press Release: ECB Decision



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:16 GMT August 7, 2014
ECB Meeting

This is my video update posted on GVI Forex, previews the ECB meeting as well.



Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video Update

london red 11:04 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision

daftness of fx market never fails to surpass my low expectations. there has been right talk of some dissent but this wont be known for 2 weeks when the minutes are released. run up in cable of a bakers dozen was there for the taking. wont get easier than that today.

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision

BOE as expected. Minutes in just under two weeks.

GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT August 7, 2014
August 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision
Reply   





-- NEWS ALERT --

Policy Unchanged (repo rate 0.50%)
Asset Purchases unch @ GBP 375 bln v. GBP 375 bn


Bank of England




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:43 GMT August 7, 2014
ECB Meeting
Reply   
The ECB also meets in the afternoon. Forward-looking surveys over the past month have been mixed, while CPI inflation slowed to just 0.4% y/y in July. However, having only recently announced additional stimulus, the ECB is highly unlikely to follow up with any further measures. Still, President Draghi’s post-meeting press conference will be pored over for clues on the outlook. The potential economic ramifications of tensions in Eastern Europe are likely to feature heavily

Lloyds Bank

GVI Forex john 10:42 GMT August 7, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner -- Top Items
Reply   

THURSDAY AUGUST 7, 2014
AU Employment
GB Bank of England
EZ Europe Cntl Bank
US Initial Claims
CA Ivey PMI
FRIDAY AUGUST 8, 2014
CN Trade  
JP Bank of Japan
GB Trade  
CA Employment
US Productivity 2Q14p

GVI Forex Blog 10:11 GMT August 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Market focus will be on ECB's Draghi post rate decision press conference. Draghi likely to come under pressure to do even more to support the EMU economy after a string of disappointing European data. EUR/USD relatively steady at 1.3375 ahead of the rate decision

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB's Draghi likely to come under pressure to do even more to support the EMU economy after a string of disappointing European data

Mtl JP 10:10 GMT August 7, 2014
BOE Meeting

take on "signs of softening in the housing market" in the Telegraph:

House prices more than five times earnings for first time since crisis
Halifax data reveal that house price growth has seen average home values rise to more than five times earnings

UK homeowners start to panic sell in the face of house price uncertainty

New research from Halifax shows that the majority of home owners in Britain think now is a "good time to sell" despite fluctuating house prices
--
Bottom Line
Panic sell ? Who da buyer(s)?
Lets see Carney and gang raise rates

GVI Forex 09:52 GMT August 7, 2014
BOE Meeting
Reply   
The result of the UK MPC meeting will be of interest, with the Committee revisiting its economic forecasts ahead of the August Inflation Report. Both the Bank Rate and the size of the APF are expected to remain on hold. However, we believe there is a good chance that Martin Weale, may vote for a rate increase, although this will not be known until the minutes in two weeks’ time. For most members, however, the prevailing weakness of inflation are likely to stay their hand - particularly given recent signs of softening in the housing market and wider economy.

Lloyds Bank

GVI Forex Blog 09:48 GMT August 7, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Claims, CA- Ivey PMI UK and ECB monetary policy decisions will be watched closely today. Both are expected to hold policy steady. As important will be any forward guidance that Mario Draghi provides in his post-announcement press conference.

More Disappointing German Data. Australian Jobs Figures Miss. ECB and BOE Policy Decisions Due

SaaR KaL 09:47 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10202594061426926&set=vb.1058559943&type=2&theater

SaaR KaL 09:45 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

I should be here

SaaR KaL 09:41 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT August 7, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Markets in Europe remain in a mild risk-off posture early in Europe ahead of the BOE and ECB policy decisions. Both are expected to hold policy steady today. Is 1.3400 now a ceiling?.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower on weak German production data. Yields on the European periphery are lower. The.EZ 10-yr  is 1.09%, -2bp.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.51%  -1.bp.  A +25bp BOE rate hike is seen by end-2014.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.46%, 0bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed  mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. share futures are  up modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


SaaR KaL 09:25 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURJPY
Might see 138 next week

gbpJPY likley 173.6

Paris ib 09:19 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts

JP - yeah maybe. But really the problem is the long term policy of the Australian government: all eggs in the one basket. Australia as a mine and a farm. Comparative advantage is the economic development policy of Australia.

GVI Forex john 09:13 GMT August 7, 2014
July 2014 Australia Employment



EARLIER: AU Employment weaker than expected. Unemployment rate rises.

Mtl JP 09:12 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts

ib 07:27 - blame CHINA

SaaR KaL 09:07 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDCHF Longs
0.8541 0.8407
0.8600 0.8345

SaaR KaL 09:04 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURAUD shorts
1.4450 1.4230
1.4555 1.4131

GVI Forex john 09:04 GMT August 7, 2014
July 2014 Australia Employment
Reply   




-- EARLIER NEWS --

Employment: -0.3K vs. +13.2K exp. vs. +15.9K (r+14.9K) prev.
Rate: 6.4% vs. 6.0% exp. vs. 6.00% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

abs,gov.au

GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT August 7, 2014
June 2014 German Industrial Output
Reply   



EARLIER NEWS ALERT
YY: -0.50% vs. 0.20% exp. vs. +1.30% (r +1.10%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 08:44 GMT August 7, 2014
STOCK MARKETS

Probably caused by the fact the market is short and all the doomsday people are on high alert.

PAR 08:43 GMT August 7, 2014
STOCK MARKETS
Reply   
Looks like the correction in the world stock markets is over.
Expect a big short squeeze . Probably caused by Draghi's goodies .

Amman wfakhoury 08:38 GMT August 7, 2014
EURJPY the HERO OF TODAY
Reply   
Will move big than others.

Paris ib 07:47 GMT August 7, 2014
DRAGHI

Negative interest rates on deposits with the ECB are doing nothing of the sort.

We have instability all right but if you are looking for reasons look at financial market deregulation, off balance sheet transactions, geo politics and the changing nature of international capital flows.

PAR 07:40 GMT August 7, 2014
DRAGHI
Reply   
Negative interest rates on ECB deposits are destabilising european financial markets .


What other presents and goodies will Draghi distribute today ?

Paris ib 07:35 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts

"One can only assume that the Government is intent to undermine local workers’ pay and conditions, while at the same time keeping the throttle on population growth and capital’s share of profits."

The push towards a slave-type economy continues worldwide with Australia on the cutting edge of this trend. AUD risk? To the downside but beware volatility on this one.

Undermining Pay and Conditions

Amman wfakhoury 07:34 GMT August 7, 2014
EURUSD 13393
Reply   
EURUSD confirmed from yestrday will be reached 13359 the return level any decline will return to it.

Paris ib 07:27 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts

The Australian jobs market has softened.

SMH

Amman wfakhoury 07:18 GMT August 7, 2014
GBPUSD 16810 confirmed

Ternopil SMV 06:23 GMT 08/07/2014
is 16810 still valid?
________________________
16810 still valid

SaaR KaL 07:14 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Correction:
GBPAUD Should Be GBPCHF

actually GBPAUD is in short now with spikes

Paris ib 07:09 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts

"The Abbott Government appears to be coming apart at the seams. With the Budget in tatters, infighting about Tony Abbott’s paid parental leave (PPL) scheme took hold, and now the Government’s flawed data retention plan – which will require telecommunications companies to store detailed information about the calls and internet use of its customers for two years – is causing considerable further angst in the party room."

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has narrowed the definition of 'looking for work' so that being considered 'unemployed' and 'in the work force' is now more difficult. This should have seen unemployment FALL in recent data. But it wasn't enough.

Abbott

SaaR KaL 07:06 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPAUD...Very recommended Long with dips
will add till 1.5200 tgt 1.5500

SaaR KaL 06:57 GMT August 7, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Longing AUDUSD till .9200
tgt 0.9340

Syd 06:32 GMT August 7, 2014
Job figures push forward bets on rate cuts
Reply   
The highest Australian unemployment rate in 12 years has brought forward bets on an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank as traders increasingly believe the economy will need a stimulus.
The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 6.4 per cent in July, up from 6 per cent in June, as jobs creation proved unexpectedly weak. The worst outcome since 2002 means that more Australians are now out of work than during the global financial crisis. Economists attributed some of the blame to the May federal budget, which has dented consumer confidence, poor capital spending intentions by business and changes to the survey that may have skewed the headline result because the definition of those actively looking for work has been modified.


link

Ternopil SMV 06:23 GMT August 7, 2014
GBPUSD 16810 confirmed

is 16810 still valid?

GVI Forex Blog 05:39 GMT August 7, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA JULY EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -0.3K V +13.2KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.4% (12-year high) V 6.0%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA JULY AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 52.6 V 51.8 (2nd consecutive expans

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: AUD plummets as Australia unemployment rate rises to 12-year high - Source TradeTheNews.com

Amman wfakhoury 05:19 GMT August 7, 2014
GBPUSD 16810 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 16:48 GMT 08/06/2014
any rise above 16847 will return to it
-----------------------
we are again at 16847

Paris ib 05:16 GMT August 7, 2014
Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response; NATO fears invasion

JP - how inconsiderate! lol

Hong Kong AceTrader 05:11 GMT August 7, 2014
AceTrader Aug 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

07 Aug 2014 02:47GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback pares yesterday's steep fall in NY n slowly ratchets higher in Asian morning on unwinding in eur/yen cross. Dlr came under renewed selling in Europe on Wed n tumbled briefly but sharply to a 1-week low of shortly after European close, traders cited a huge order in the futures market (CME) probably attributed to this move, however, price quickly recovered n moved narrowly in NY afternoon.

BoJ will start its 2-day meeting today n is widely expected to hold monetary policy unchanged due to recent internal disagreements within the central bank, even though the current economic deterioration may pressure the central bank to do more in order to boost the economy n reach its inflation target.

Although dlr may edge higher in Asia due to short-covering in yen, selling on recovery is the way to go as market sentiment remains fragile due to heightening of geopolitical tension in Ukraine. Bids are noted at 102.10/00 n then 102.00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 101.80-70. On the upside, offers from various accounts are placed at 102.30-40, 102.50/55 n then 102.65/70 with stops emerging above 102.80.

GVI Forex Blog 03:38 GMT August 7, 2014 Reply   
Nearly all the markets are waiting for the ECB & BOE meets today though no substantial

Morning Briefing : 07-Aug-2014 -0336 GMT

Sydney ACC 02:54 GMT August 7, 2014
Unemployment jumps to more than 10-year high Date August 7, 2014 - 12:42PM 545 reading nowRead later
Reply   
Changes in sample and measurements
A sample rotation used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics seems to have had an impact on the unemployment rate.
"The incoming rotation group for July 2014 had a lower proportion of employed persons and a higher proportion of unemployed persons compared to the sample it replaced," the ABS said.
A third of the change in the unemployment rate could be attributed to that change, the bureau said.
It is very difficult to get a clear reading of employment given the change in methodology of measuring those seeking work, an ANZ senior economist, Justin Fabo said.
"Most other labour market indicators are improving, at least slowly, so the jump in the unemployment does look odd in that regard. We'll need the August report to confirm that view," Mr Fabo said.
The ABS said in the release that there is no evidence that the changes in methodology impacted estimates for unemployment.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-jumps-to-more-than-10year-high-20140807-101a9n.html#ixzz39ffkTeOe

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:18 GMT August 7, 2014
AceTrader Aug 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views AUD/USD

07 Aug 2014 01:34GMT

AUD/USD - .... Aussie tanks after Australian jobless rate in July climbed sharply to 6.4% vs forecast of 6.0% whilst employment change came in at -300 vs street forecast of a +12K job growth. The pair tumbled fm 0.9355 to 0.9302 after the data shock.


Last night, U.S. President Obama said: 'can't solve entire corporate tax inversions problem administratively, but looking for ways to interpret statutes to discourage use of loophole; would prefer congress pass law end inversion loophole but White House reviewing all its options on the issue; we don't want to see this trend grow on inversions, so wants to move quickly on the issue.'
He also said 'Russian economy has "ground to a halt" as result of U.S. and European sanctions; supports ceasefire negotiations talking place in Egypt, wants to make sure that current temporaty truce holds.'

News from Reuters, Russia's veterinary service to ban all U.S. agricultural products and all EU fruit, vegetable imports - RIA news agency says, citing the service.

Thursday will see the release of Australia’s unemployment rate, Swiss consumer confidence, German industrial output, Bank of England rate decision, eurozone rate decision, Canada’s Ivy PMI and building permit.

Mtl JP 01:38 GMT August 7, 2014
Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response; NATO fears invasion

since when does a wardog organization fear anything ?
sounds like yet another shill piece by Reuters.

how could patriots at Reuters be so inconsiderate as not to include a phrase about The Norfolk-based Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Vella Gulf will enter the Black Sea on Wednesday to promote peace and stability in the region. ?
--
audusd blasts thru audusd 0.9340 gv chartpoint pivot to hit Sup 1 0.9306 .
amazing ... amazing gv charttpoints


GVI Forex 01:33 GMT August 7, 2014
Australia Jobs
Reply   
MNI: AUSTRALIA JULY EMPLOYED PERSONS -300M/M; MNI MEDIAN +12000

MNI: AUSTRALIA JLY LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE 64.8%; MNI MEDIAN 64.7%

AUD lower

GVI Forex 00:51 GMT August 7, 2014
Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response; NATO fears invasion
Reply   
(Reuters) - Russia will ban all imports of food from the United States and all fruit and vegetables from Europe, the state news agency reported on Wednesday, a sweeping response to Western sanctions imposed over its support for rebels in Ukraine.

Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response; NATO fears invasion

GVI Forex Blog 00:24 GMT August 7, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro broadly softer ahead of ECB policy review

* Disappointing Italian and German data hit sentiment

* Dollar suffers sudden selloff versus yen

FOREX-Euro wary as ECB looms, dollar suffers bruising blow vs yen

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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