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Forex Forum Archive for 08/11/2014

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GVI Forex john 21:00 GMT August 11, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



August 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 12. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- ZEW Survey, US- 3-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE= ZEW Survey
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Data


GVI Forex Blog 20:15 GMT August 11, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Markets were stable overnight. There was little news flow of note, updates regarding Ukraine conflicting with the previous day's (NATO said there has been no Russian withdrawal). Fed Vice-Chair Fischer said the US labour market remained a source of concern. The S&P500 is currently up 0.3%.

Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts

GVI Forex john 20:14 GMT August 11, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

TUESDAY
DE ZEW Survey
TRY 3-yr Auction
JP BOJ Minutes
WEDNESDAY
GB  Unemployment
GB BOE Inflation Report
US Ret Sales
TRY 10-yr Auction
THURSDAY
EZ 2Q14 GDP
EZ HICP 
US Initial Claims
TRY 30-yr Auction
FRIDAY
GB GDP
US Ind Prod
US U Mich prelim

GVI Forex john 19:41 GMT August 11, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:28 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

JP - the only true negative war outcome in recent memory was WWI where there was no winner

Livingston nh 19:27 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Sell Treasurys - sell Gilts - sell stox index calls . buy puts -- this is the transition period

Mtl JP 19:23 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh 18:59 what is the one trade - what to sell what to buy ?
-
side q: what can a negative war outcome do ?

GVI Forex john 19:15 GMT August 11, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




GVI Forex Blog 19:00 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk-On Session Monday. German ZEW Survey On Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- ZEW, US- 3-yr

The upcoming week is only moderately active on the data front.. Tuesday sees the latest German ZEW Survey. The Chinese CPI released early on Saturday increased +2.30% y/y as expected and suggested no inflationary issues for the government..

Risk-On Session Monday. German ZEW Survey On Tuesday

Livingston nh 18:59 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

The geo-political concerns have not (and cannot) be resolved -- these are political and they will resurface // only a positive war outcome can settle a political issue - otherwise it festers to reappear at a later date //

The real risk to markets is the repricing brought to the fore by interest rates - Cable is the classic example as the Fed and Boe shift timelines //

Stox look to be the leader but away from Govvies the bond market is the canary in the coal mine -- every Treasury issue is in negative yield territory

GVI Forex john 15:50 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Europe is closing in a pervasive risk-on posture. Tensions in the various hot spots have not worsened. Israel and Hamas are in yet another cease-fire. The Ukraine situation remains unsettled.  The EURUSD is back below 1.3400 (risk-on?).



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly higher  The 10-yr bund is 1.06% +1bp. The 2yr yield  has turned slightly negative The 1.00% line is an obvious psychological target. Peripheral bond yields are higher on the day.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.49%  +3bp. An expected +25bp BOE rate by end-2014 is in question?
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.44%, +5bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed higher. Bourses in Europe are closing better. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:40 GMT August 11, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Equity markets in Asia, Europe and the US are seeing very solid gains on Monday, buoyed by decent China inflation numbers and a big gain in the Nikkei, plus some wishful thinking regarding "geopolitical de-escalation."

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Global Markets Surge Despite Continued Geopolitical Tensions

GVI Forex Blog 15:03 GMT August 11, 2014 Reply   
August 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 12. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, US- 3-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 12, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT August 11, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, August 12. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, US- 3-yr Auction

  • Far East: JP- GDP.
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Data


GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT August 11, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT August 11, 2014
How to Trade in a Geopolitical Market
Reply   
Traders generally like geopolitical tensions as they create volatility. This is especially true in current low volatility markets as anything that makes them move is welcome. However, the pattern since the start of 2013 has been that geopolitical events that would typically have led to panic type trading have fallen shy of morphing into a crisis. This is so far true in the current world where a confluence of geopolitical events (Ukraine, Iraq, Israel-Gaza) have upset markets but so far not led to crisis trading. So how do you trade in today’s geopolitical market?

How to Trade in a Geopolitical Market

Mtl JP 13:55 GMT August 11, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

your calendar says
13/08/14 9:30 A GB BOE Inflation Report
(13 is Wednesday)

15/08/14 8:30 A GB GDP
(15th is a Friday)

yes, someone does read posts

GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT August 11, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

I think U.K. employment data on Wednesday could matter for GBP.

GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT August 11, 2014
United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE refi rate and GBPUSD. 2y vs, BOE Repo Rate. 2yr is where the market is pricing where the Official target rate will AVERAGE over the next two years. We have been calling attention to the recent disappointing UK data and these data have been seeing the 2-yr yield fall. The GBPUSD is following the UK 2-yr yield.

The divergence between these two key rates tells you all you need to know about the GBPUSD. In increasingly will be sensitive to U.K. economic data as the year wears pn.




Mtl JP 13:33 GMT August 11, 2014
AceTrader Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

what a miserable result after 5 years of flooding with fiat across the globe , hey Stanley.

And this character wants more moRE of the same cheap money that has accomplish approximately zero except deny savers some return.
-
I suspect the real issue, more than their smoke n mirrors about jobs, productivity and ressource utilization is that "More than six years later, policymakers around the globe have made substantial progress in strengthening the financial system and reducing the probability of future financial crises".

Just like Janet swiftly avoided answering Warren's question about TBTF, the issue is inversely important to the amount of public words about it.

London Chris 13:03 GMT August 11, 2014
GBPUSD 16815 confirmed

Is anyone going with... The only one in the world .. on gbpusd?

GVI Forex john 11:37 GMT August 11, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
S&P futures trading up strongly this AM in U.S. as part of a risk-on bias. Giving the USDJPY a modest lift a the pair GENERALLY follows equities. The correlation is not as tight as it has been.

UK JYT 11:36 GMT August 11, 2014
August Monday
Reply   
August Monday, not too many around, those trading are worried about the next headline but it looks like some calm today.

Equities are higher, bonds are lower, usd is flat to higher.

Take what you can today but do not have big ideasd.

GVI Forex Blog 10:25 GMT August 11, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The Gaza ceasefire, Russia terminating its military operations near the Ukrainian border and the pro-Russian rebels asking Ukraine for a ceasefire all have helped to de-escalate geopolitical risks over the past three days.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite finds a reprieve

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:46 GMT August 11, 2014
AceTrader Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

11 Aug 2014 07:16GMT

Statement from Fed's Fischer, quote:
' global economic recovery steady but unspectacular and disappointing; unclear how much of U.S. productivity slowdown will be reversed;
potential growth in united states and globally may have suffered long-term damage;
housing sector, weak foreign demand continue to weigh on US recovery; good reason to think some of the decline in u.s. labor force participation is cyclical;
quantitative easing successful, but complicates ability to manage short-term interest rates;
financial stability not chief concern in the united states at present.'

GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT August 11, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map. Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly lower in a risk-on session. All eyes remain on the various global hot spots. Spot to 20-day averages are mixed.





Auckland 09:09 GMT August 11, 2014
11/8/2014 MMI GROUP Gold and silver analysis
Reply   

11/8/2014 MMI GROUP
Gold and silver analysis
MMI GROUP
Gold

Strong U.S. data support the market's expectations of the rising fed interest rates in advance. Reaction is not strong of gold, and silver is affected by this apparent under pressure
Last week, a U.S. airstrike Iraqi rebels to boost gold, but the effect has slowed, but Ukraine, and the Middle East geopolitical crisis warmed up,.

Gold ETFs on August 11, according to the monitoring data show that as of August 8, the Ishares Gold Trust Gold holdings is about 165.93 tons, compared with the previous unchanged.
Technical MMI GROUP trust team thinks the rose gold last week by political reasons to break through short-term downlink channel, but is not strong, is still in the region of the oscillation. It can be based on principles of cast high low suck for participation.

The upward resistance: 1324.80, 1333.80, 1345.20,
The downward support: 1302, 1287.30, 1280.20, 1287.30

Silver
According to data released on 11 August ,on 8 August Silver Trust holding is about 10101.29 tons, compared with the previous unchanged; The silver holds a total value rise to $6.537 billion.
Technology on MMI GROUP trust team thinks the silver has a short-term downlink channel intact, it has a weak performance that did not keep upside, it goes up and down after low consolidation, it still continue to possibility test of downward a line of 19.40.
The upward resistance: 20.30, 20.60, 21.,
The downward support: 19.75, 19.40, 18.80.

This article only represents the personal point of author, for reference only, not as a basis for the investment. Enter the market accordingly at your own risk.

GVI Forex Blog 09:08 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk-On Session So Far today. No Major Data Releases Due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Data The upcoming week is only moderately active on the data front. Monday features no major data releases The Chinese CPI released early on Saturday increased +2.30% y/y as expected and suggested no inflationary issues for the government..

Risk-On Session So Far today. No Major Data Releases Due

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT August 11, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   

Early in Europe, markets have been in a pervasive risk-on posture, after tensions in the various hot spots did not worsen Israel and Hamas are in yet another cease-fire. The Ukraine situation remains unsettled.  The EURUSD is back below 1.3400 (risk-on?.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly higher  The 10-yr bund is 1.06% +1bp. The 1.00% line is an obvious psychological target. Peripheral bond yields are higher on the day.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.48%  -+2bp. The expected +25bp BOE rate by end-2014 is in question?
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.43%, +4bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed  higher. Bourses in Europe are better. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Paris ib 08:52 GMT August 11, 2014
Geopolitics

Kerry is in Sydney for a War Mongers confabulation. The Australian PM then flies to London for more war plans. So some kind of intensification of military violence sponsored by these creeps can be expected soon. Not USD positive if U.S. Markets take a hit as a consequence.

GVI Forex 08:34 GMT August 11, 2014
Geopolitics
Reply   
DONETSK, Ukraine — Ukraine pressed ahead on Sunday with its military assault to stamp out pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country with its most intensive artillery bombardment of this rebel capital yet.

Ukraine Steps Up Assault of Rebel City

SaaR KaL 08:10 GMT August 11, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY will effect GBPJPY More on the north side
Below 171 is a good buy
174 is easy next week or week after

SaaR KaL 08:05 GMT August 11, 2014
Day's Trades

this week into the month

Longing AUDUSD
ADCHF
GBPCHF
NDX

shorts
eurgbp
euraud

will long eurusd below 1.3240
and cabel below 1.6640

Do not Pollute your mind with political talk
it has no meaning

SaaR KaL 07:57 GMT August 11, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
eurgbp
i doubt it wont crash

same goes to euraud


Buying audusd as long as it's lower then .9270 this week

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:47 GMT August 11, 2014
AceTrader Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Reply   
[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


[B]GBP/USD [/B]- ... Sterling's spectacular ascent in the 1st half of the year had generated huge profit to those who jumped on the bandwagon, however, the sharp rise in the value of the pound has a negative impact to the U.K. trade balance.

Reuters reported on Fri sagging exports pushed Britain's trade deficit to a 5-month high in Jun, suggesting a more balanced economic recovery still looks a way off, although the construction industry recovered from a dip in May.

Exports of U.K. goods to countries outside the EU fell to their lowest level since Sep 2011, coinciding with the pound hitting a near six-year high against the dlr. Britain's total goods trade deficit grew to 9.4 bln pounds in Jun, its highest level since Jan, fm 9.2 bln pounds in May. The data dampened hopes that exports will soon make a greater contribution to U.K.'s consumption-led economic recovery, but separate construction data n a recruitment survey still pointed to strong domestic demand.

"The (trade) problem is largely out of the U.K.'s hands who pointed to weak growth in the euro zone - Britain's biggest export market, said Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club. He added "This is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. Sterling rose further in July while the euro zone economy looks set for little or no growth in Q2."Britain's economy grew 0.8% in the 2nd quarter, according to an early estimate. . By contrast, The Bank of England will release updated economic forecasts on Wed - expects that pace of growth to slow slightly later this year.

Amman wfakhoury 07:45 GMT August 11, 2014
GBPUSD 16815 confirmed
Reply   
GBPUSD 16815 confirmed will be reached , return level 16779 any decline below it will return to it untill 16815 reached.


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


Berne Nick Anderson 07:34 GMT August 11, 2014
All the fun of geopolitics

US always take advantage of european troubles

Paris ib 07:17 GMT August 11, 2014
All the fun of geopolitics
Reply   
While some people in Europe appear to have worked out that war and/or sanctions with Russia are not in the interests of the European people in some quarters the will to war continues.

So we get to watch what Kerry does next.

Ukraine, Gaza, Syria and Libya

GVI Forex Blog 04:55 GMT August 11, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA JULY CPI Y/Y: 2.3 % V 2.3%E (3-month low) - (CN) CHINA JULY PPI Y/Y: -0.9% V -0.9%E (29th consecutive y/y decline; Smallest decline in 27 months) - (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MoF): Ch

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China inflation remains subdued; Russia de-escalation offers relief - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:29 GMT August 11, 2014 Reply   
The markets bounced back from their respective medium term support mention on Friday

Morning Briefing : 11-Aug-2014 -0328 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:21 GMT August 11, 2014
AceTrader Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

11 Aug 2014 02:58GMT

The greenback eased after a 'gap up' open to 102.22 (Reuters) in NZ today as Fri's rally in the Nikkei futures in NY session prompted broad-based yen-selling. The Nikkei has risen sharply in Asia (currently up by 329 points at 15107), suggesting consolidation with upside bias remains in Asian trading. Bids are noted at 102.00-101.90 with mixture of bids n stops located 101.75/70 n around 101.60. On the upside, offers are reported at 102.40-50 n then 102.65/70 with stops emerging further out abv 102.90.

Although geopolitical events shud remain as the major driver of volatility for the day, investors shud pay attention to the BoJ monthly economic survey at 05:00GMT as it will be interesting to see how the BOJ sees growth in that consists of the GDP number (market expects Wed's Japan Q2 GDP to post a sharp fall of 7.1%), trading dlr fm both sides of the market is recommended.


Next week will see the release of Japan's economic survey, Swiss retails sales and Canada's housing start on Monday.

U.K. BRC retail sales, BOJ meeting minutes, Japan's domestic CGPI, Australia's house prices, NAB business conditions and business confidence, Japan's industrial output, eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions and economic sentiment, U.S. redbook and Federal Budget on Tuesday.

Japan's GDP, Australia's Westpac consumer confidence, China's retail sales and industrial production, Germany's CPI and HICP, U.K. claimant count unemployment change and ILO unemployment rate, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. retail sales and business inventories on Wednesday.

New Zealand's business PMI and retail sales, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia's westpac leading economic index, China's CB leading economic index, Germany's GDP, Swiss producer and import price, eurozone GDP and inflation, Canada's new house prices, U.S. import prices, exports prices and jobless claims on Thursday.

U.K. GDP, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. PPI, NY Fed manufacturing, overall net capital flows, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.

nw kw 00:18 GMT August 11, 2014
Australia's Jobless Rate Jump Overstated: Barclays

all I see is commodity unwind to bonds from china's reform/ xaugbp also drops big whith xaucny

Syd 00:12 GMT August 11, 2014
Draghi Delivers Killer Blow To The Euro
Reply   
ECB presdient Mario Draghi's suggestion eurozone and US monetary policy is diverging should keep a lid on the euro.

Euro

GVI Forex Blog 00:02 GMT August 11, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Yen under pressure as safety demand eases

* Markets still keeping a wary eye on geopolitical developments

FOREX-Yen slips as geopolitical tension eases, but sentiment fragile

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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