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Forex Forum Archive for 08/13/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:51 GMT August 13, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Sterling weaker as markets push back rate hike bets

* BOE wrongfoots investors by putting accent on weak wages

* Euro bracing for euro zone growth, inflation data

FOREX-Sterling bulls hit by BOE dovish shift, euro eyes GDP

GVI Forex john 22:18 GMT August 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News



August 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB- Employment, US- Weekly Jobless, Mortgages, Import Prices, Natural Gas, 30-yr

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB- Employment
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Mortgages, Import Prices, Natural Gas, 30-yr


GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT August 13, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY
06:00 DE 2Q14 GDP
09:00 EZ 2Q14 GDP
09:00 EZ HICP 
12:30 US Initial Claims
17:00 TRY 30-yr Auction
FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP
12:30 US Ind Prod
13:55 US U Mich prelim

sd sf 21:48 GMT August 13, 2014
Morning
Reply   
Have not had a lot to report last few days.

Eur

seen buying 50-60 and then t/p selling 95 +

Bots seem content to buy dips and sell rallies as a range play .. breakout bots are silent.

GBP

breakout bots sold 1.6725-35 - target 1.6590 and they put s/l @1.6750

range bots not in the market yet .. so probably can drift lower in Asia.

Gold - model looks for 1328/29 - but this market is choppy.

$cad - models selling @25-28 area.

Going to be an interesting couple of days to see how the GBP plays out.

Mtl JP 21:09 GMT August 13, 2014
USA ZERO COMPANY TAX RATE

PAR meet Virginia Hillis, Gwendolyn Deegan, two dual-citizens who sue Ottawa over new FATCA tax rules.

docket number of F173614 in the Federal Court of Canada in Vancouver

dc CB 20:54 GMT August 13, 2014
Back to Iraq
Reply   
Benjamin J. Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser, told reporters on Martha’s Vineyard that President Obama would probably receive recommendations in the next several days about how to mount a rescue operation to help the refugees, who are stranded on a mountaintop surrounded by Sunni militants. He said those recommendations could include the use of American ground troops.

But he drew a distinction between the use of American forces to help a humanitarian mission and the use of troops in the battle against militants from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, something he said the president had rejected before and continued to oppose.

U.S. Could Use Ground Troops to Aid Rescue of Iraq Refugees

dc CB 20:37 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



This is OPEX week.
Vix shows fear receeding. all that expensive "protection" seems to be for nought.

GVI Forex john 19:30 GMT August 13, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

SaaR KaL 19:27 GMT August 13, 2014
St Louis

"It is now no longer Invade...it is now enslave"

why go so far and spend money..while the money is in your neighbor's pockets.

SaaR KaL 19:21 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

Think again in simple terms

who can mess with the USA and get away with it?
9/11?...you are kidding me!!

you think if those dudes were so smart to do this...that they would actually do it...thinking it will make difference?
You think that they did not consider a retaliation from US?

please people... i can not accept that people can be as dumb.
Worriers have number 1 rule...stay alive!!

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT August 13, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Close..


GVI Forex john 19:13 GMT August 13, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

href="http://www.global-view.com/entrytools.html" target="_blank">Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

SaaR KaL 19:13 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

This is standard war fair tactics
make hate...let them fight
then play the good guy...and rule
very simple


Lets say;
you are sleeping...I come to your car and write (with spry paint)
(Forkin Arabs)
what would you feel driving that car to work?
...OK
Lets say;
KKK on your car..or Fork them KKKs
again...what is going on in mind?
Putin myself in that situation...Would i think that Bankers did this? Arabs did this? Jews ?
Nope...I would be thinking of my car...why would arabs do this?...I hate them
The Manipulation of third party...that is so easy to do ...and is standard cowards way to get you to do what they want you to do

Mtl JP 19:12 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

there is nothing good about IMF's money, not for the reg'lar folk.

what you are witnessing in Ukraine is yet another IMF application of financial leverage gutting a country and preventing an elected government from forming. It is a natural fit with IMF and its diabolical Work given the depth and spread of kleptocracy that is Ukraine.

SaaR KaL 19:02 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

for you to pay more tax
and get the weapons makers richer...Slide $$ under the table
Plzzzzzzzz bro

SaaR KaL 19:00 GMT August 13, 2014
St Louis
Reply   
Create the hate and make money off the tax payers...
Very AVG standard Politicians mechanics
Stupid people...just read it...Like they want you to
been going on since Moses
LOL

Mtl JP 18:57 GMT August 13, 2014
SEC



CB 18:37 one day, not the SEC nor some Mary Jo, but the market will rule again.

"The notional amount of outstanding OTC derivatives contracts, which determines contractual payments and is an indicator of activity in OTC derivatives markets, totalled $710 trillion at end-December 2013. This compares with $693 trillion at end-June 2013 and $633 trillion at end-2012." according to latest BIS report.

In the meantime don't fight the regulators or policymakers
better to join em at their juice bar while the taps are open but remain vigilant.

PAR 18:47 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

Maybe looking at IMF s DSK heritage Lagarde has a Ukrainan lover ? Why else throw good money after bad money ?

dc CB 18:37 GMT August 13, 2014
SEC
Reply   
Mary Jo White took the helm of the Securities and Exchange Commission amid high hopes that she could turn around the once-proud agency. More than a year into her tenure, she has disappointed a wide swath of would-be allies.

Over the last several weeks, I’ve been talking to fellow regulators, administration officials, current and former S.E.C. staff members, financial reform advocates and people on Capitol Hill whose opinions of Ms. White’s performance range from dissatisfied to infuriated.

Once Powerful, Mary Jo White’s S.E.C. Is Seen as Sluggish and Ineffective

SaaR KaL 18:36 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

used as a distraction for the real issues
Standard Politicians methods.. you should know that by now

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine

the IMF's hook in Ukraine's donkey
Ukraine’s Currency Drop May Swell Emergency Bailout Needs - wsj
-
and so I keep asking myself:
what does Ukraine have that the IMF wants ?
is it cheap labor ?
hryvnia is down some 40% ytd
(not that I am able to trade it)

GVI Forex Blog 18:22 GMT August 13, 2014
Thursday sees high profile EZ data with GDP and HICP figures in the spotlight.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB Employment, US- Weekly Jobs, Import Prices,, 30-yr

Thursday sees high profile EZ data with GDP and HICP figures in the spotlight. U.K. Employment data were in line with expectations, however wage growth was disappointing once again. The BOE Inflation Report was less hawkish than seen Slack in economy fell, but there is more slack in the economy than originally thought. Wage growth is weak. The BOE pushed its rate hike timing a water later to 1Q15

German GDP Next. Disappointing Data News From U.K. and EZ

GVI Forex john 18:20 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.409% last 2.400% back in view. Early today it looked like 2.500% was in view.

SaaR KaL 18:18 GMT August 13, 2014
tensions increase
Reply   
St Louis
Looters are not from the same town
while looting...non get shoot
and getting filmed to go on Fox

while people protest...they get tear gas
Looter get no tear gas...
Very fishy

SaaR KaL 18:13 GMT August 13, 2014
USA ZERO COMPANY TAX RATE

I am telling you guys...this is serious
I expect the national Guard there soon...Maybe a week

one man caused this

PAR 18:12 GMT August 13, 2014
Next week at the Hole will Yellen drop a Big Hint

Jackson Hole will send world stock markets to new all time record highs . Yellen to vow never to raise rates in her lifetime , and ask her successor to do the same .

And this all on taxpayers money . Enjoy your Jackson Hole holiday and keep fishing .

SaaR KaL 18:08 GMT August 13, 2014
USA ZERO COMPANY TAX RATE

hahha
They are creeping in ha?

PAR 17:57 GMT August 13, 2014
USA ZERO COMPANY TAX RATE
Reply   
20 U.S. companies that paid 0% in taxes

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-insane-u-s--corporate-tax-system-145353359.html


Tax Haven USA. Worse than BAHAMAS

dc CB 17:50 GMT August 13, 2014
Next week at the Hole will Yellen drop a Big Hint
Reply   
This year’s three-day conference in the shadow of the Teton Mountains begins on Aug. 21 with the topic of “Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics.”

Wall Street Cut From Guest List for Jackson Hole Fed Meeting

dc CB 17:16 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales

retail sales were bad because of the Polar Vortex the came back in July.

SaaR KaL 17:10 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD Reveral is next week at 1.3210
still a sell for one more week
any time at 1.3412

GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr auction 2.439%
bid-to-cover 2.83 vs. 2.63

mixed reviews.

SaaR KaL 16:51 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD Now Flat
Not happy longing
from 0.92 to 0.9170 would be happier to


gold will short 1322 to 1324 area

GVI Forex john 16:28 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

Also, it looked earlier today like the U.S. 10-yr was headed for 2.50% again, now we are back at 2.420%. There is no doubt today has been watershed session for global economic outlook. The outlook has turned south.

German GDP tomorrow could be a major psychological event.

SaaR KaL 16:22 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

IMO 1.6780 to 1.6830
for another of cable south
I think for the rally of cable...next week entry around 1.6600
would be perfect

GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

UK 2-yr yield tumbled today from 0.81% yesterday to 0.72% on the London close today. GBPUSD is weaker as a result.

The U.S. 2-yr, by contrast, has fallen to 0.42% today from 0.44% late yesterday.

GVI Forex john 16:10 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map


Markets are ending Europe in a mixed risk posture. Today has been market by disappointing economic data from almost everywhere. Also Traders do not know what to do about  the risk of  Russian actions in Ukraine. The EURUSD back below 1.3400.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are broadly lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.03% -3bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious psychological target. The 2-yr yield is back below zero. Peripheral bond yields are lower on the day.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.44%  -4bp. The +25bp BOE rate hike has been pushed a quarter later to 1Q15.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -3bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe ended up. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 16:04 GMT August 13, 2014

Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 102.5 Target: 102.23 Stop: bit above 102.63

may or not workout

SaaR KaL 15:58 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

IMO USDCAD
wants to a fast north from 1.09
to 1.1045 over next 2-3 days

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:38 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

JP, it is much easier with hindsight than in the heat of battle.

The spike to 1.6840 setup the reversal but tell that to the shorts that got stopped out.

EURUSD performing (last 1.3363) as per the book with another failed retracement attempt (and lower top).

SaaR KaL 15:36 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

ha?

Mtl JP 15:27 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

it is often the same:
50+ pairs to trade + indecies & commodities
which to pick to trade
and in which direction
for what magnitude
miss on anyone and watch the horse run out of the barn saddle-free

GVI Forex Blog 15:19 GMT August 13, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The BoE Quarterly Inflation Report was nowhere near as hawkish as expected, as it merely amended its spare capacity view to 1.00-1.25% from 1.00-1.50% prior and trimmed the wage growth forecast for 2014 and 2015. The BoE said there were no numerical thresholds for wage growth to trigger a rate hike. This contrasts sharply with Governor Carney's earlier more hawkish tone. GBP/USD is testing two-month lows below 1.6696 in the aftermath of the report.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Global Markets Shrug Off Japan GDP Softness

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:07 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

To state the obvious, all about GBP day today.

Also for equities bad news is good news. August market feels like it is playing with less than half a deck.

SaaR KaL 15:05 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP
Expected around 0.77 over next 3 weeks

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT August 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

As for data tomorrow, HICP will be the final version of the flash report that came out at the end of July. I would not expect a big change.

Big focus tomorrow will be the German GDP (EARLY!). EZ GDP is a composite of national data released over the morning. Markets are already set up for a weak German reading -0.10& qq. So it seems a short EURUSD position is betting on a weaker than expected number?

Amman wfakhoury 14:51 GMT August 13, 2014
Direction on Gold

Central Kwun 13:17 GMT 08/13/2014
wfakhoury, 1318 is still valid? i think this call is already expired because i saw shooting star at 1317
_____________________________________-
I dont use all these fake indicators ..if price did not reach 1318 , it will return to the return level which is 1314.70

GVI Forex john 14:48 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

10-yr 2.424% -3.6bp

Market has not absorbed the Retail Sales report (earlier) as easily as I would have thought.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:45 GMT August 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

JP, isn't that what I have been suggesting since the start of the week?

Mtl JP 14:43 GMT August 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News

john I smell a reasonable odds short euro trade against the 20dma holding with the eu gdp and cpi tom.
you ?

GVI Forex john 14:33 GMT August 13, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. -2.000 exp vs. -1.750 prev.
Gasoline: -1.200 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -4.790 prev.
Distillates: -2.400 vs. +0.500 exp vs. -1.890 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.6% vs. 92.0% exp vs. 92.40% prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 14:25 GMT August 13, 2014 Reply   
August 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB- Employment, US- Weekly Jobless, Mortgages, Import Prices, Natural Gas, 30-yr

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 14, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT August 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News
Reply   


August 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB- Employment, US- Weekly Jobless, Mortgages, Import Prices, Natural Gas, 30-yr

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- GDP, EZ- GDP, HICP, GB- Employment
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Mortgages, Import Prices, Natural Gas, 30-yr


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:13 GMT August 13, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

Suggest watching my video on

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT 08/13/2014 - My Profile

and my view on the EURUSD ahead of tomorrow's German GDP

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT August 13, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Business Inventories
Reply   



ALERT
+0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.50% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

NY JM 13:35 GMT August 13, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

Finally some volatility but EURUSD did not go far enough to change the game. Those levels come in at 1.3433 and 1.3445 today. High was 1.3415.

Price action is more two-sided though and would have to get below 1.3370-75 to put 1.3333-50 in play again.

Otherwise, 1.34 will be the focal point and likely set its tone over next few days.

Central Kwun 13:17 GMT August 13, 2014
Direction on Gold

wfakhoury, 1318 is still valid? i think this call is already expired because i saw shooting star at 1317

SaaR KaL 13:11 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

long gbpchf

short eurgbp and eurjpy

short eurusd


covered all GBPUSD shorts and euraud
reshort euraud above 1.4470

short chfjpy

PAR 12:55 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales

US consumption is a big part of the Us economy .

PAR 12:50 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales

July's reading of U.S. retail sales was the weakest in six months

PAR 12:49 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales

Imho Yellens central planning and trickle down model no longer works .

The rich get richer but they spend their money in more exotic places and not in the USA.

Mtl JP 12:44 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales

PAR 12:33 - have no fear for joe6pak
retailers, unlike banker and policymaking overlords, know what it takes to move crap off shelves
lower the price

Amman wfakhoury 12:44 GMT August 13, 2014
Direction on Gold

You have from yesterday 1318 as confirmed level and 1314 as return level
buy and add buy when decline

Mtl JP 12:41 GMT August 13, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook

gv euro chartpoint 20dma on radar

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT August 13, 2014
July 2014 Advance Retail Sales

U.S. Retail Sales. Weaker than expected.

PAR 12:33 GMT August 13, 2014
US retail sales
Reply   
Horrible numbers .

Joe Sixpack running out of cash and out of credit cards .
Mall are empty as Joe Sixpack stays at home .

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT August 13, 2014
July 2014 Advance Retail Sales
Reply   



ALERT
0.00% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% pre
Ex-Auto: +0.10% v +0.40% exp. v +0.40% pre
Ex-Auto/Gas: +0.10% v n/a exp. v +0.40% (+0.60%) pre


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Central Kwun 12:27 GMT August 13, 2014
Direction on Gold
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: 1309 Target: Stop: 1318

Wfakhoury, may I know your comment on gold?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:15 GMT August 13, 2014
Wednesday's Trading Outlook
Reply   
Send me an EMAIL if you would like access to my daily video updates



Daily Forex Trading Outlook Video Update

EURUSD gets a reprieve out of the pop in EURGBP but upside should remain limited ahead of Thursday's GDP data.

Mtl JP 11:55 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

PAR 09:56 - sometimes gv john's posts are so... er... understated and hence easy to miss

GVI Forex john 10:26 GMT July 24, 2014
EUR Heat Map: Reply
JP- It is so declared OFFICIALLY.

We are in the midst of currency wars.

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT August 13, 2014
UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

Note in our Risk table, we have been indicating for about a week that the timing of a UK. rate hike could be postponed because UK economic data have been turning mixed. Carney apparently confirmed this today. GBP is weaker vs. the USD, EUR, etc.

GVI Forex john 11:31 GMT August 13, 2014
UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Reply   
UPDATED (WEDNESDAY NY OPEN): Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE refi rate and GBPUSD. 2y vs, BOE Repo Rate. The 2yr is what the market has priced where the Official target rate will AVERAGE over its remaining lifespan. The BOE today sent a message to the markets that the timing of a rate hike is being postponed by one quarter to 1Q15.

This chart shows how the markets actually work. This is what you need to know about the GBPUSD. The GBP will be increasingly sensitive to U.K. economic data as the year wears on.




PAR 11:04 GMT August 13, 2014
Mortgages
Reply   
United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 1.6% to -2.7% in August 8

GVI Forex john 10:59 GMT August 13, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mixed, but holding below the RURUSD 1.3400 line. 1.3350 now the neutral level. EURGBP up following BOE Inflation Reoprt. AUD up vs. EUR Spot to 20-day averages are mixed.





PAR 10:50 GMT August 13, 2014
Stock Markets
Reply   
World stock markets back to near record highs as geopolitical tensions ease and central banks provide abundant liquidity .

SaaR KaL 10:20 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

Lots of copy cats around

PAR 10:16 GMT August 13, 2014
Ukraine Currency
Reply   
Ukraine currency tumbling to all time record low raises the prospect of a Ukrainian default on its bonds . After Argentina default , Ukraine could be next .

Amman wfakhoury 10:11 GMT August 13, 2014
GBPUSD 100 pips move
Reply   
You all missed the 100 pips move signal.

Amman wfakhoury 10:09 GMT August 13, 2014
Direction and consolidation
Reply   
We don't know the coming direction when price into consolidation

PAR 10:04 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

FXStreet (Łódź) - As the Q&A part of press conference progresses Carney stresses that the time for rate hikes hasn't come yet.

• He points to geopolitical tensions and overseas financial tightening as the main risks for the UK economy.

• BoE will defend the 2% inflation target with determination.

• "The slowdown in housing market, brought about by new FSA mortgage rules is for the most part transitional and could be coming to an end."

• The BoE expects growth slowing down next year, while inflation remains below target

Amman wfakhoury 10:01 GMT August 13, 2014
EUR/USD

consolidates into narrow range @ 13350 ..

Amman wfakhoury 09:57 GMT August 13, 2014
EURJPY 136.50
Reply   
EURJPY return level 136.50 with poss to reach 13693 first

PAR 09:56 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

Carney talking down GBP . Draghi talking down EUR . Yellen talking down USD .

And we taught exchange rates are not the responsability of " independent central banks " .

GVI Forex john 09:52 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

BOE less hawkish than expected. Its all about wage growth which is one of their measures of slack. Wage growth released today missed expectations.

Market saying timing of the first rate hike has been pushed out from 4Q14 to 1Q15. GBP down om the news.

SaaR KaL 09:50 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

gbpchf
Longs below 1.5200
till 1.5127
tgt
1.5300

PAR 09:48 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

We could see the ECB raising rates before the BOE .

SaaR KaL 09:47 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

Long GBPJPY below 171.52
till 170.45
tgt 172.6

GVI Forex Blog 09:47 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk-On. Disappointing Data News From U.K. and EZ. U.S. Retail Sales Next.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Retail Sales, 10-yr
U.K. Employment data were in line with expectations, however wage growth was disappointing once again. EZ Industrial Production data were significantly below expectations. The quarterly Bank of England Monetary Policy Report was less hawkish than hoped for.

Risk-On. Disappointing Data News From U.K. and EZ. U.S. Retail Sales Next.

PAR 09:43 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

FXStreet (Łódź) - Following the release of BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday, governor Mark Carney explains in prepared remarks that UK's economic expansion is on track, recovery gaining momentum.

• The BoE head suggests bank rates need to rise as the economy normalizes.

• Unemployment has fallen sharply.

• Productivity and real incomes have disappointed.

• "Slack is being used up at faster pace than anticipated."

• Wages are expected to rise by just 1.25% in 2014, down from the previous prediction of 2.5%.

• Growth should accelerate to 3.25% in 2015, down from 3.5% seen before.

• The timing of the increase of the first bank rate hike is not certain yet, Carney stresses.

• Once the rate rises start, they will be gradual and limited.

PAR 09:42 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

Carney helping some befriended hedge funds by creating volatility. Never trust a central banker .

Chennai AMI 09:41 GMT August 13, 2014
EUR/USD

I'm looking for 1.3382. Will it reach!

GVI Forex 09:39 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

Outside day after initial spike higher then reversal lower...

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report

GBP selling off on BOE report. Less hawkish than hoped for.

Amman wfakhoury 09:36 GMT August 13, 2014
EUR/USD

EURUSD consolidates @ 13350 for some hours

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT August 13, 2014
BOE Inflation Report
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --


Slack in economy has fallen but there was more slack n the economy than originally thought. Wage growth is a focus and it has been weak.

Bank of England



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:28 GMT August 13, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
Markets have moved back into a mild risk-on posture Wednesday. Traders do not know what to do about  the risk of  Russian actions in Ukraine. EZ data continues to disappoint. The EURUSD pivoting 1.3350.



  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.09% +3bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious psychological target. The 2-yr yield is back to zero. Peripheral bond yields are steady on the day.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.50%  +3bp. An expected +25bp BOE rate by end-2014 is in question?
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.47%, +2bp. The psychological pivot remains 2.50%
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are up. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Chennai AMI 09:28 GMT August 13, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply   
wfakhoury: Sir, your view on EU pair please.... It would be greatly appreciated.

SaaR KaL 09:25 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades

covered about 80% of positions

more into going shorts eurjpy above 136.9

should do some cable shorts too

PAR 09:05 GMT August 13, 2014
June 2014 Eurozone Industrial Output

Weather related . Too warm winter followed by normal summer distorted seasonal trends .

PAR 09:02 GMT August 13, 2014
Japan
Reply   
Japanese economy collapsing as consequence of Abe s and BOJ actions . The lower the rates the worse the economy will get . Lets do a little more QE ?

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT August 13, 2014
June 2014 Eurozone Industrial Output

EZ Industrial Production Much weaker than forecast. EURUSD a touch weaker.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT August 13, 2014
June 2014 Eurozone Industrial Output
Reply   




NEWS ALERT

mm: -0.30% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -1.10% (r ) prev.
yy: 0.0% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.50% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:44 GMT August 13, 2014
June/July 2014 U.K. Employment Data

U.K. Claimant Count Unemployment falls by more than expected. Unemployment falls. (Declining Claimant Count is stronger and vice-versa). Low wage growth keeps pressure off BOE.

SaaR KaL 08:34 GMT August 13, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
eurusd
what i got is that 1.3344 is the mean expected for next month

the month after that is 1.3685

so now sitting on it
the rest is white noise
IMO still a sell above 1.3350 to 1.3370 today

inside the residual...gets funny...Like Thermodynamic systems
Fluids change behavior
WhatEver that means...LOL


GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT August 13, 2014
June/July 2014 U.K. Employment Data

GBP reacting negatively to weak wage growth in UK.

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT August 13, 2014
June/July 2014 U.K. Employment Data
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimant Count (000): -33.6 vs. -30.0 exp. vs. -36.3 prev.
ILO Unemployment: 6.40% vs. 6.40% exp. vs. 6.60% prev.
Avg Earnings (x-bonus): +0.60% v +0.70% exp. v +0.70% prev
Avg Earnings (inc Bonus): -0.20% v -0.10% v +0.40% prev


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:29 GMT August 13, 2014
Japan 2Q14 GDP

EARLIER: 2Q14 plumments on impact of sales tax increase. Decline was as forecast.

GVI Forex john 08:23 GMT August 13, 2014
Japan 2Q14 GDP
Reply   




Earlier NEWS ALERT
qq: -1.7% vs. -1.80% exp. vs. +1.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 08:15 GMT August 13, 2014
Focus on the UK
Reply   
The focus for today falls firmly on the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). The report will provide an opportunity for the Bank to deliver its latest forecasts for GDP, inflation and the unemployment rate. Softer than expected inflation in Q2 suggests that its inflation profile could be nudged lower for both this year and next. While forecasts for GDP growth this year could also be modestly lowered, albeit still expected to be above 3%. However, the key metric to watch will be the Bank’s latest estimate of economic slack. Given the fall in the unemployment rate since the May QIR, we expect this to be nudged from 1 -1.5% of GDP to 0.75 - 1.25%.

Ahead of the Inflation Report, the latest labour market update will highlight the continued strength of the labour market data. We expect unemployment to have fallen by 125k in the three months to June, slightly more than last month’s 121k fall. We also look for employment growth to have posted a robust 285k rise, reflecting the firm reading from the employment components of the PMIs over Q2. This combination should deliver a further decline in the unemployment rate from 6.5% to 6.3% - a 5½ year low. However, balanced against this, wage inflation is expected to slow from 0.3% to 0.0%.

Lloyds Bank

Mtl JP 08:00 GMT August 13, 2014
RUSSIA

europe's problem is that it is under NATO's heel.
not something it is going to heal anytime soon
whether u like it or not , deal with it

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:00 GMT August 13, 2014
AceTrader Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

EUR/USD - .... Fundamentally, yesterday's downbeat German ZEW investor confidence does not bode well for Germany & the euro. WSJ reported the German economy is struggling. And, worryingly, that might not just be down to Russia. Tue's ZEW survey of analyst n investor expectations, fell for the 8th month running in Aug. What's more, the figure failed even to meet forecasters' modest expectations.

Although pundits have been quick to ascribe the weakness to Russia's conflict with Ukraine n subsequent western sanctions on Russia. On the other hand, maybe the survey's softness shouldn't be a surprise. German industry has been misfiring during recent months. Factory orders slumped 3.2% on the month in Jun. May's ind. production data posted their biggest drop in 2 years n only registered a modest rebound in Jun, well short of expectations.

Russian trade made up a mere 3.8% of total German trade in 2013. There are signs the euro zone's recovery might be running out of steam. Italy, the single currency's 3rd biggest economy, slipped into yet another recession during the 2nd quarter. France, the 2nd largest economy, is likely to be in recession or on its way.

Germany found an outlet for its exports in the wider global economy during the euro-zone crisis, conditions in the developing economies are also looking tougher. Thur's 2nd quarter German GDP data are likely to show no growth or even a modest contraction, though economists are confident in a rebound during the second half of the year. But that might be a shade optimistic given the squeeze German exporters are facing from all sides.

PAR 06:35 GMT August 13, 2014
RUSSIA
Reply   
What is wrong with sending humanitarian aid . Europe should do the same instead of always complaining .

GVI Forex Blog 04:52 GMT August 13, 2014 Reply   
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -1.7% (biggest decline in 5 years) V -1.8%E; GDP NOMINAL Q/Q: -0.1% V 0.0%E; ANNUALIZED GDP Q/Q: -6.8% V -7.0%E - (CN) CHINA JULY AGGREGATE FIN

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China lending slumps, Japan Q2 GDP contraction less than expected - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:43 GMT August 13, 2014 Reply   
Nearly all the major markets are trading in a sideways fashion though the Indian

Morning Briefing : 13-Aug-2014 -0342 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:05 GMT August 13, 2014
AceTrader Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

13 Aug 2014 00:42GMT

USD/JPY - ....BoJ EconMin Amari statement:
'see no immediate need for extra budget but govt, BoJ have always said ready to take action to support economy as needed;
when we say we will take appropriate action, that means we are ready to take whatever means available;
economy will undoubtedly make pretty big rebound in July-Sept, expect outlook to brighten;
Japan firms' shift to overseas production, weak demand in Asia partly behind soft Japanese exports.'

'economic recovery intact after weak GDP;
GDP surge ahead of tax hike and reactionary slump is "normal" response when compared with past cases of sales tax hike;
PM Abe will make final decision on if to proceed with second sales tax hike looking at various data ahead;
positive cycle of corporate earnings, wages and capex need to remain in place for economy to rebound in July-September.'

Highlights of BoJ meeting minutes:
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to keep QQE as long as necessary, said QQE having desired effects.
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to examine risks, adjust policy as needed.
- Some members cautious on achieving 2% price target.
- One member said inflation expectation have not risen.

According to minutes of the July policy meeting, several of the Bank of Japan's board members expressed a more cautious view on the economic outlook to reach a sustained 2% price stability target by fiscal 2015.

 




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