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Forex Forum Archive for 08/17/2014

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dc CB 22:41 GMT August 17, 2014
Why The Fed Can't, And Won't, Let The Stock Market Crash
Reply   


When it comes to the stock market, while the biggest, and according to many only, beneficiary of the Fed's ZIRP/QE policies of the past 6 years has been the wealthiest 1%, the reality is that said top crust of US society no longer needs the S&P to continue its relentless, manipulated and centrally-planned levitation.

Between a third Hamptons residence, a 5th Ferrari, and a 7th French villa, not to mention a few tons of gold, the super wealthy have long since booked their paper profits, and transferred their "wealth" out of the intangible and into actual, physical assets.

Therefore it is not the 1% that would suffer the most should the S&P have a post-Lehman like 50%+ wipe out.........some 50% of all US pension fund assets are invested in stocks

it is the fate of future retirement funds, and in fact, the very core of the US welfare state that is at stake should there be a massive market crash. In which case what happened in Ferguson will be a polite stroll in the park compared to the chaos that would ensue should another generation of Americans wake up with half or more of their paper wealth wiped out overnight.

ZH

dc CB 22:34 GMT August 17, 2014
They shoot looters, don't they
Reply   


er...I mean they..... Shoot horses...horses...they shoot horses

WmBanzi7

Dillon AL 21:56 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATED: BoE Carney – Says he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest

Cos he thinks he is a rock star CB
Cos he wants to be the one to raise 1st before the FED
Cos he is writing history and he thinks he has the market in his palm
in reality he will screw up the British economy
and lastly penny to a pound
Cos he has ambitions to go to BIS eventually

nw kw 21:44 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATED: BoE Carney – Says he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest

xgbp lagging badly, gbp cot open interest small//thing is china interested in eur for exports

GVI Forex john 21:36 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATED: BoE Carney – Says he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest

Its hard to understand why Carney suddenly changed his story.

NY JM 21:25 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATED: BoE Carney Says he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest

How can Carney have any credibility if he swings the market by being dovish one day and then backtracks a few days later.

Syd 20:42 GMT August 17, 2014
Potential losses in suspected China port metals financing fraud tops $930 mln
Reply   
(Reuters) - Global warehousing firm Pacorini became the latest firm to take legal action in connection with the suspected metals financing fraud at China's Qingdao Port, signaling losses could amount to more than $930 million at the world's seventh busiest port.

LINK

Syd 20:37 GMT August 17, 2014
BoE's Carney says rise in real wages not pre-condition for rate hike
Reply   
Carney also defended a loophole that is being exploited by Britain’s banks to duck a European cap on bonuses worth more than 100 percent of salary. They have been paying cash “allowances” to their top performers to get round the cap. The governor said that these allowances, if properly designed, could be “sensible”.

In the interview, conducted on Wednesday, Carney also said the pound’s 17 percent gain from its low in March 2013 would not prevent a rate rise. “Even with . . . that appreciation, inflation gets back to target by the end of the forecast period because slack narrows,” he said.

Next week's publication of the minutes of the Bank's August policy meeting about a tightening of monetary policy this year might show at least one policy-maker cast a first vote in favour of a rate hike, potentially putting markets back on alert.

Syd 20:35 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATED: BoE Carney – Says he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest
Reply   
Via Reuters:
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in a newspaper interview he would not wait for real wages to turn positive before raising interest rates.
His remarks were reported in the Sunday Times in an advance extract from the interview
No further details or direct quotes were immediately available
-
More from the full interview should be available before the market opens on Monday. Staying tuned …
-
Added: Reuters have an update now, with a bit more detail than prior, here: UPDATE 2-BoE’s Carney says rise in real wages not pre-condition for rate hike

GVI Forex john 15:50 GMT August 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, August 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: No Major Data

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- NAHB Index


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:10 GMT August 17, 2014
How to Become a Better Forex Trader

I was asked whether I am overdoing this FREE TRADING GUIDE post on the forex forum and perhaps so, but I feel it is well worth it as I want everyone to get access to it.



While there are no guarantees of success in the forex trading business, I have created this comprehensive guide in the hope it will make you a better trader. My goal is for you to come away with insights that will not find elsewhere and that you can apply to your everyday trading. Traders of all levels of experience can benefit from this free guide in your journey to become a better forex trader.



How to Become a Better Forex Trader

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:07 GMT August 17, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points

EURUSD:

20 day mva 1.3411, avg daily range the past 5 days has been 59 pips and over the past 30 days 48 pips (as per our Chart Points table0

18 days between 1.3333-1.3485 and 15 days between 1.3333-1.3445 have brought the 20 daily mva within the current range.

Only 3 days have seen high below 1.34 and just barely, which for me makes this level the key one that will dictate the tone going forwards.

I am bearish along with most in the market but have not made much in the way of headway over the past 4 weeks.

GVI Forex 14:48 GMT August 17, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.


Global-View Chart Points

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATE: Unites States 2y vs Fed Funds Target Rate and EURUSD (inverted Scale)
Reply   
UPDATED AS OF- FRIDAY NY CLOSE: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs U.S. Fed Funds Target and EURUSD (inverted scale).

The Fed has been sending split signals to the markets. On the one hand, it has been getting impatient about normalizing policy, but then the central bank do not want to get ahead of the economic recovery and cut it short. Fed Chair Yellen continues to send the message that policy is data-dependant. That means that the future path of policy is not set in stone.

The position of the 2-yr rate, above or below, the central bank target indicates what the collective wisdom of the "smart money" is for the future direction of interest rates. The differential incicates how much of a change in rates is expected.

You can see on the U.S. chart that sentiment for a significant Fed policy tightening has diminished over the past few weeks. Note also as this has happened that the USD has leveled out. We have plotted the EURUSD on an inverted scale to reflect USD rather than EUR strength. Compare this chart to the EURUSD chart (below) to get a more complete picture of the influences on this currency pair.





GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATE: Eurozone 2y (DE) vs ECB Refi rate and EURUSD
Reply   
UPDATED AS OF- FRIDAY NY CLOSE: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs ECB refi rate and EURUSD

The ECB message to the markets has been that the EZ has structural weaknesses and that a lower EURUSD is desired. This process has been remarkably slow to develop, but has had a clear impact (negative) on the EUR and EZ interest rates. This is how markets are SUPPOSED to work.

Keep an eye on the EURUSD 20-day avg (1.3411). The Friday high was 1.3412.




GVI Forex john 12:06 GMT August 17, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

0:00 TUESDAY
8:30 GB CPI
12:30 US CPI
12:30 US House Start & Permits
0:00 WEDNESDAY
8:30 GB BOE Minutes
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
0:00 THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Ret Sls
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
0:00 FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

GVI Forex Blog 12:02 GMT August 17, 2014
Reports Ukraine Troops Engaged Russian Military Saw Markets End Last Week in Risk-Off Posture
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- NAHB Index

The preliminary University of Michigan Survey on Friday was weaker than expected.. Revisions to 2Q14 U.K. GDP .were minor with the YY reading moved up slightly. Tuesday sees U.S. and U.K. inflation data.

Reports Ukraine Troops Engaged Russian Military Saw Markets End Last Week in Risk-Off Posture

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:18 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD

John, that is an amazing chart and indicator and explains recent GPB weakness. If you need an explanation please ask as John has presented an incredible correlation chart.

GVI Forex john 11:12 GMT August 17, 2014
UPDATE: United Kingdom 2y vs BOE repo rate and GBPUSD
Reply   
UPDATED AS OF- FRIDAY NY CLOSE: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: 2y vs BOE Repo rate and GBPUSD.

The BOE message to the markets that the timing of a rate hike has been postponed by one quarter to 1Q15 has had a CLEAR negative impact on GBPUSD. This is how these markets are SUPPOSED to work together.

GBPUSD 1.6675 200 day moving avg held Friday (1.6677 low).





GVI Forex 10:58 GMT August 17, 2014
Ukraine Says Rebels Shot Down Fighter Jet
Reply   
KIEV, Ukraine — Separatists have shot down a Ukrainian fighter plane amid fighting between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government forces in the eastern part of the country, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Sunday....

As fighting continued and the status of the Russian aid convoy remained uncertain, the foreign minister of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France were expected to meet in Berlin on Sunday over the crisis.

Ukraine Says Rebels Shot Down Fighter Jet

Mtl JP 05:58 GMT August 17, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh 14:46 mark Aug 22 and 24 on your calendar
“Poroshenko gave orders to win at any cost before August 22 and to hold a parade in Kiev on August 24

-
Ukraine foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin calls on NATO, EU to give military support - Economic Times By Reuters - 17 Aug, 2014

 




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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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