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Forex Forum Archive for 08/20/2014

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT August 20, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


August 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobless, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

  • Far East: JP- flash PMI, CN- HSBC flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ, DE, FR, flash PMIs GB- Retail Sales
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless,flash MFG PMI, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes Sales, Natural Gas


GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT August 20, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY
1:45 CN HSBC flash PMI
7:28 DE MFG PMI flash
7:58 EZ  MFG PMI flash
8:30 GB Retail Sales
12:30 US Initial Claims
13:45 US MKt MFG PMI flash
14:00 US Philly Fed
14:00 US Existing Homes Sales
FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT August 20, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

dc CB 19:57 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

Call it the Mary Barra effect. Ask Why she became the 1st Female CEO....oooopppppps all those ignition switch deaths and recalls....

Janet Yellen....ask why she is the 1st Female Chair.....oooooppppp alll those...?????????

But "she" din't Know

toasted Gammy?

Fed Dissenters Increasingly Vocal About Inflation Fears

GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT August 20, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT August 20, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 19:02 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

nh

so for the next week, take a break from da news, CNBC, and staring at the chart screen. (Cramer's there in one of those episodes)

A cynic's holiday? Perfect immersion antidote to all that beheading type stuff. DOH JustinTime...

552 episodes – plus 2007's "The Simpsons Movie" – airing 24 hours a day through Sept. 1.

'The Simpsons' marathon on FXX

GVI Forex john 18:47 GMT August 20, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

2015 Fed Funds futures !00% odds for one 25 bp rate hike by then and 60% adds on a second +25bp.

Mtl JP 18:45 GMT August 20, 2014
just a licence fee
Reply   
Bank of America Reaches $17 Billion Settlement - wsj

Bank of America is expected to pay nearly $17 billion to settle U.S. Department of Justice accusations it packaged shoddy mortgages into securities and sold them to investors in the run-up to the financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. 3 min ago

GVI Forex Blog 18:41 GMT August 20, 2014
Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP, CN, EZ, DE, FR, US, flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

Thursday sees a slew of flash PMI reports, U.K. Retail Sales and several U.S. items. Fed policy minutes released in the early afternoon in NYC had a more hawkish tone than expected the 2-yr note increased to 0.46% +2bps vs. beforehand. This was USD constructive. Watch upcoming U.S. data closely.

Fed and BOE Policy Minutes More Hawkish than Thought. Rates Up

Livingston nh 18:39 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

cb -hea ha hheea ( choking )

dc CB 18:31 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town)

wmBanzai7

dc CB 18:25 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath unleashed an instantaneous reaction to today's FOMC minutes and the message is clear - markets are much less uncertain than the Fed about the timing (sooner rather than later) of the first rate-hike

Via The Wall Street Journal,

Federal Reserve officials debated at their July meeting whether to move sooner than expected to start raising interest rates in light of an improving job market and rising inflation, but decided they needed more evidence before concluding that was the right approach.

Ben's Earbud Speaks

Livingston nh 18:23 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

And now we direct your attention to the Center Ring at Jackson (I'm goin' to Jackson, I'm gonna mess around
Yeah, I'm goin' to Jackson
Look out Jackson town) where Fed Chair Yellen speaks - BUT will she confirm the Minutes or defend her True Believer position -- Bet she will defend

Faction politics at the Fed??

GVI Forex john 18:22 GMT August 20, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10-yr 2.441% +4.1bp.

dc CB 18:20 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



the fiver's taking it on the chin worse than the 10 and 30

GVI Forex john 18:19 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

So Fed and BOE policy minutes both were more hawkish than expected today. They both are drinking the same kool-aide

USA ZEUS 18:15 GMT August 20, 2014
GBP/USD bounce
Reply   
Nice long entry at 1.6590 for a bounce higher.

tokyo ginko 18:13 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

still alive and worth the wait!

Mtl JP 18:13 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

maybe hawkish
but no timeframe
-
Bottom Line
players still slaves to the cb babel

GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT August 20, 2014
Official rates vs. 2yr yields

2-yr rate 0.46% vs. 0.44% before the release. Usually USD bullish.

GVI Forex john 18:05 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes

Most want to reduce asset reinvestment AFTER first rate hike


On balance this sounds more hawkish to me than expected.

GVI Forex john 18:02 GMT August 20, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
Labor progress faster than expected
disagreement on amount of slack in economy
some feel unemployment rate understates slack


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Ternopil SMV 17:58 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury, what is your view for eur/jpy. Do you have any confirmed level for it?

Amman wfakhoury 17:55 GMT August 20, 2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed
Reply   
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed will be reached return level 16636
any decline below it will return to it.



The only one in the world who confirms the next level


Livingston nh 17:46 GMT August 20, 2014
FOMC Minutes
Reply   
Ahead of the Fed stox are singing "who's afraid of the big bad wolf" -- the key to Minutes is the massage not the message (see the Transcripts) // it's not a coincidence that KC Fed Jackson Hole topic is LABOR for Yellen's first as Fed Chair

dc CB 17:42 GMT August 20, 2014
Obama



Gammy is in charge.

We told you folks to BTFD and even threatened WWIII and a totally blown up MidEast just to give you folks another chance to buy the dip. So folks, I am working really hard to give you folks in the middle class a chance to stay in the middle class. If you folks don't take the chance it's not my fault.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Zeke Miller ✔ @ZekeJMiller
Follow

Pool: after statement Obama headed to the Vineyard Golf Club
1:26 PM - 20 Aug 2014

Livingston nh 17:30 GMT August 20, 2014
Obama

John - Well that is not quite as terrifying as hourly passes by B-52 formations dropping 60 tons on the malefactors -- why bother ?? - we return to our regularly scheduled soap opera

Livingston nh 17:20 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

JP - the daily 89 ema was the source of my 1.6450 comment - altho it held again in late Spring at higher levels it has now been well and truly broken // the only daily avg near 1.6450 is the 233 ema which is ~ 1.65 which corresponds to the WKLY 55 ema // 1.6450 is now of no value as a support level (1.63 might be)

GVI Forex 17:13 GMT August 20, 2014
Obama

Obama expressed his outrage at the murder of an American photo journalist by ISIS. He did not take any questions. No market implications.

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes



nh 16:47 sneaking closer to target

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:54 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

I posted this last night on GVI Forex

UK Conspiracy Theory
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:25 GMT 08/20/2014 - My Profile
UK PRESS: The Times reports that BOE Governor Mark Carney's political neutrality will come into question when he faces the UK treasury select committee next month. Lawmakers have raised accusations Carney and George Osborne have entered into a "secret pact" to keep interest rates on hold until the next election. The Bank and the Treasury have denied any such deal, the report says. However, insiders question why the accusations surfaced this week after the release of benign inflation data, supporting the view that rates should not be raised from their current 0.5% level, the report adds.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

Livingston nh 16:47 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Looking thru BoE minutes - strange that Carney would offer a change to Mansion House comment right after the meeting when he knew of the dissents - this fella seems too political for his own good // BUT on the bright side it reinforces my opinion that the window for a rate hike is narrow before the election, especially if the autumn data weakens

GVI Forex 16:43 GMT August 20, 2014
Obama
Reply   
Set to make an announcement in a few minutes. No details.

Belgrade Knez 16:41 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR/JPY
Reply   

Amman wfakhoury

EUR/JPY never went to your tgt of 136.50 .... are you still waiting for that tgt to be hit, or different view now, please?

GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT August 20, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD
Reply   
As I indicated a couple of weeks ago, the risk in EURUSD remains to the downside. What I said at that time is that the EURUSD seemed to be declining in one cent increments, starting around the 1.3600 level. This move has been unusually slow and has been very difficult for us accustomed to instant gratification, or whatever the opposite is!

As long as the U.S. and the EZ remain on divergent monetary policy tracks, the EURUSD should continue to work lower. The danger will become when the markets start to take the EURUSD downtrend for granted and when this move starts to pick up speed and momentum.

Below 1.3000 looks inevitable to me, as I said before. I don't know if 1.2000 is still too much for this move. We will have to see how relative economic trends evolve. This move is being solidified by its slow pace.

Any thoughts?

Mtl JP 15:53 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

London Chris 14:46 - maybe on a six-month vacation. 2x / yr

GVI Forex john 15:21 GMT August 20, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off


Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain in  a mixed RISK-ON posture late on Wednesday. The key impetus for trade has been Bank of England policy minutes which saw two members vote for an immediate policy tightening. The EURUSD is testing just below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% -1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower. ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.42%  +2bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, +2bp. A major focus is Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is now 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mostly weaker. U.S. shares are up modestly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:18 GMT August 20, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US futures were trading lower after two days of solid gains before the open, depressed in part by European equity weakness. Markets await the minutes of the July FOMC meeting for some clarity on exit positioning

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: US Equities in Neutral After Two Days of Gains

London Chris 14:46 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top

Hey how about the magic 1.2777!!!!

Where are the Bali bulls? Are you still accumulating longs?

GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT August 20, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -4.470 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -1.400 prev.
Gasoline: +0.590 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.200 prev.
Distillates: -0.960 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -2.400 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.40% vs. 93.10% exp vs. 91.60% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

USA ZEUS 14:27 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR/USD This is the top



Nice to see the natural pivot 1.3277 print today. Chart of the year for the call of the year attached and updated. Cheers!

Livingston nh 13:01 GMT August 20, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Two things on my morning list - first, the EU peripheral yields decline - this seems strange on a couple of counts

Second, USD/JPY finally got back to 103.25, closing level of last day it traded above 104 - so resistance to 104 lvl should be minor -- a close back above 104 might see another leg higher (or a dangerous double top)

GVI Forex john 12:59 GMT August 20, 2014
Official rates vs. 2yr yields
Reply   
Two-year yields mostly higher after the surprising UK rate vote disclosed in the BOE Minutes earlier today. U.S. and Aussie rates are up as well. Individual currencies tend to be strongly influenced by their 2-yr rate.





SaaR KaL 12:55 GMT August 20, 2014
Why Technical Analysis Works

chi squared Dist... a natural dist of the Variance...heheh
By prof
JM...no offence...but Gauss related to you?

SaaR KaL 12:52 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

OK JM
Define safe "IN FX"?
and why it is sooooooooo sepcial?
LOL...that is such a funny term...no offence bro

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:43 GMT August 20, 2014
Why Technical Analysis Works
Reply   

Technical analysis works but not for the reasons you may imagine. See why in my latest article.

Why Technical Analysis Works

NY JM 12:39 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

The word "safe" does not exist in the forex trading dictionary

SaaR KaL 12:18 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

your safe trades are USDCAD Longs for a couple for week

GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT August 20, 2014
UPDATE: Unites States 2y vs Fed Funds Target Rate and EURUSD (inverted Scale)
Reply   
Wednesday NY OPEN: Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART

2-yr vs U.S. Fed Funds Target and EURUSD (inverted scale). Late last week saw a flight to safety, which resulted in U.S. yields falling. As a result, the USD rally vs. the EUR stalled. Now with U.S. rates starting to climb again the USD rally has resumed. This is CAUSATION, not simply correlation.

I don''t expect much new from Yellen on Friday. We all know that Fed policy is data-dependant. Inflation has not become an issue, especially as the Fed feels there still is a lot of slack in the economy. I agree. Yellen appears frequently and I can't imagine what new she has to say.




SaaR KaL 12:16 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

GTC EURUSD Long till end of AUG
1.3182 to 1.3088

1.3310 is sell avg this week
don mess with dat

Mtl JP 12:08 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

GVI Forex john 08:35 - re gv econ calendar:
Time Country Title Cons Last
20/08/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
-
since when did the FRB become country ? lol
thx for the chuckle !

SaaR KaL 12:06 GMT August 20, 2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook

I recall that so well Jay

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:05 GMT August 20, 2014
Daily Forex Trading Outlook
Reply   
I have been calling for EURUSD 1.3294 as a target for the past month in my Dailu Forex Trading Outlook Videos , ever since 1.3475 was broken and finally achieved today.

if you want to see what may come next, send me an EMAIL for today's video.

Don't be shy, no strings attached.

SaaR KaL 11:49 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades

cable
in the next 1 - 2 weeks
there will be lots hesitancy from the traders

extreme values dist (advanced statistical methods)

Been a victim of this in so many trades
you buy and buy...then get squeezed ...get out with a loss...and then never look at a chart for another month (Da complex)...then the whole thing works

if you are bullish now cable
take your time
1.6473 1.6345
is the buy layer this week
it is not like it did not go 3-4 figures against you before

GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT August 20, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view.

EUR mixed. EURJPY up on poor Japanese trade data. I don't see this improving soon with post-earthquake Japan now importing oil heavily as nuclear reactors are closed.

The EURGBP is down after BOE Minutes. EURUSD below 1.3300.





GVI Forex Blog 10:38 GMT August 20, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US Dollar Index at 6-month high as US fundamentals improve heading into European morning and managed to hold onto the bulk of its gains. The EUR/USD hit a fresh 11-month low after testing below the 1.3294 level. USD/JP Y hit its highest level since April and approached the 103.30 level ahead of the NY morning.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE Minutes shows first dissent on interest rates in over three years

GVI Forex john 10:07 GMT August 20, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...




Hong Kong AceTrader 10:04 GMT August 20, 2014
AceTraderAug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Aug 2014 08:36GMT

GBP/USD - .... BoE releases its meeting minutes, which states, quote:

'MPC voted 7-2 in August to keep interest rates unchanged, Weale n McCafferty backed 25 bps hike;
Weale n McCafferty say desirable to raise rates before wage pressures show due to monetary policy lags;
Weale n McCafferty say early rate rise wud facilitate aim to ensure future rate rises are gradual;
most MPC see insufficient inflation pressures to justify rate rise;
most MPC see merit in waiting for firmer evidence that wage growth will come before raising rates; most MPC fear unexpected rate rise cud push up sterling, further impede UK economic rebalancing;
potential overreaction by mkts not necessarily a reason to delay rate rise if merited by data;
most MPC expect downside risks of raising rates to diminish over time; current monetary policy operational framework under review, can be used to implement rate rises in near term.'

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 09:53 GMT August 20, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

Daily Pivot 1.3332

S2 1.3282
S3 1.3252

GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

The yield on the 2-yr gilt has risen to 0.74% from 0.71% beforehand. I don't see the policy dissent as a signal that BOE policy will be tightened before next year, but the 2-yr yield is a top indicator to watch for where the markets FEEL policy is headed and how the GBP will perform.

The primary GBP relationship is against the EUR and it must always be viewed in EUR terms. The GBPUSD value is a function of the value of the GBP against the EUR AND the value of EUR vs. the USD.

GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT August 20, 2014
BOE Minutes Surprise Markets.Fed Policy Minutes Due Later
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes

Today sees the latest Fed policy minutes. The Bank of England Policy Board minutes surprised traders with two member dissenting in the latest interest rate vote. Members Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. The GBP traded higher on the surprise. Its been like riding a roller coaster recently to follow the BOE. Their concern was about a tightening labor market the prospect of wage growth. I still do not see a rate hike before the start of 2015.

BOE Minutes Surprise Markets.Fed Policy Minutes Due Later

GVI Forex john 08:50 GMT August 20, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply   

Current Market Conditions:
European markets early are in a mixed RISK-ON posture Wednesday. One impetus for trade today was the latest Bank of England policy minutes which saw two members vote for an immediate policy tightening. The EURUSD is testing below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.01% +1 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower. ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.43%  +3bp. A +25bp BOE rate hike is now expected for November or February 2015, depending on data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, +2bp. The major focus is the Yellen speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot has become  2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are weaker. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

Weale and McCafferty both voted for an immediate +25bp rate hike. GBP spikes higher on the news. Its been like riding a rollercoaster recently to follow the BoE. Their concern was about a tightening labor market the prospect of wage growth.

SaaR KaL 08:35 GMT August 20, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
ready to place shorts on USDJPY

103.56 to 104.3
tgt 101.6 next week
Longer term 4 weeks

tgt 98.5 area

still bearish Cable from 1.6730 and above

GVI Forex john 08:31 GMT August 20, 2014
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


Bank of England





TTN: Live News Special Offer

London London 08:23 GMT August 20, 2014
Signals service
Reply   
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.92919 Target: 0.92655 Stop: 0.93175

Dollar stronger across the board The dollar was up against almost every currency we track over the last 24 hours. Yesterday’s announcement of much stronger-than-expected housing starts and building permits for July, coming after the strong NAHB sentiment index, has given the market more confidence that the Fed is likely to start hiking rates soon. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has cited the weakness in the housing market as one reason for being cautious. For example, in her testimony to Congress last month, she said the housing sector “has shown little recent progress” and that “readings this year have, overall, continued to be disappointing.” If housing is now back on an improving trend, then that removes one more barrier to tightening.

AUD moved lower before Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens gave his semi-annual testimony before the House of Representatives economics committee. While he mostly reiterated the view expressed in the minutes of the recent RBA meeting about economic growth, he added that the risk of a material fall in the AUD is “underestimated” and said that intervention to stem its rise remains part of the RBA’s “toolkit.” Nonetheless AUD was slightly higher after he spoke than before he started, probably because he downplayed the usefulness of further monetary easing at this point. I still feel AUD is overvalued and is likely to decline.

Posted with permission of global-view.com

forex trading

nw kw 08:21 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT 08/20/2014
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view on nzs/usd tks

nw kw 08:17 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

or nzd/usd weekly has bigger pay out

nw kw 08:13 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

will it take gold down whit it shod but aud gold miners struggling so gold might be support for now with

nw kw 08:04 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

Forecasting a lower Aussie Dollar as US Fed Starts Getting Active

The AUD continues to see any bouts of strength proving short-lived in nature, indeed many traders are expressing the desire to sell the AUD rallies in anticipation of deeper declines.

"This view is not driven by an expectations of the RBA lowering the cash rate, or even the stodgy fundamental that lower export prices leads to a lower currency, but merely because we expect the markets to raise the odds that the Fed will hike by mid-next year, strengthening the USD," says Prashant Newnaha at TD Securities.

Newnaha notes that it was year ago now when the so-called “taper tantrum” was in full flight, net positioning was –60k or so contracts (August 2013) as investors piled into the USD.

nw kw 07:42 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

https://www.google.com/finance?q=AUDUSD

GVI Forex Blog 06:53 GMT August 20, 2014 Reply   
(JP) JAPAN JULY MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥964.0B V -¥713.9BE (25th consecutive trade deficit); ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.0T V -¥761.3BE - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 0.9% V 1.6% PRIOR (

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan trade deficit wider than expected; RBA Gov Stevens jawboning AUD ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

nw kw 05:42 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?

fast serch

Singapore SGFXTrader 05:15 GMT August 20, 2014
Audusd 0.90 or 1.00 first?
Reply   
Dear GV Folks,

What is your view?

1. Will Audusd ever hit parity ($1.00) in 2014?
2. Audusd Direction: $0.90 or $1.00?

Cheers
SgFx

GVI Forex Blog 03:58 GMT August 20, 2014 Reply   
The overall sentiment remains positive. The pace of Housing Starts surged by 15.7

Morning Briefing : 20-Aug-2014 -0357 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:14 GMT August 20, 2014
AceTrader Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

20 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

AUD/USD - ... The Aussie chopped around after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' testimony b4 the House of Standing committee ahead of Asian open, short-term specs were selling the AUD after NY close but when Stevens did not jawbone the Aussie lower, shorts covered their positions and lifted price o 0.9318.

Below were Stevens testimonies released on Reuters :

-remains view that on most metrics would be surprising if A$ remains so high
-risk of A$ fall is underappreciated
-puzzled why u.s. dollar is not higher given u.s. is recovering
- intervention on A$ part of tool kit if thought useful
-have not considered intevention useful so far
-would not want to give advance warning if did consider intervention
-economy does not need draconian fiscal tightening right now
-budget problems are in the medium term
-recent reading on unemployment was a weak one, difficult to interpret
RBA's kent says unemployment not to fall sustainably until late 2015, early 2016

Stevens continued - A$ high in part because global capital finds Australia attractive

-has not thought about raising rates
-says expects fairly subdued result for Q2 QDP
-have not felt that intervention would work at current A$ levels
-would consider lower rates if thought it would be helpful
-but does not think interest rates the answer right now

Mtl JP 03:14 GMT August 20, 2014
Could beheading rattle the stock market?

nh 01:29 / thx 4 that clarifying distinction and reminder

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:13 GMT August 20, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

One of our GTA members has offered to share his simple but effective system with us.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

Livingston nh 01:48 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

AUD/USD on the daily chart is showing similar patterns to EUR, then GBP where the 21 dma is sliding thru 55 and 89 ema - wkly chart gives some hope to a bounce but cluster of l/t MAs between 9333 and 9363 -- the daily charts show AUD capped at 55 ema -- a break of 92 looks likely once 9240 goes

GVI Forex 01:42 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

To sum up, RBA Gov is saying if AUD gets too strong it will intervene

GVI Forex 01:39 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

MNI: GOV REMINDS RBA MANDATE IS FULL EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY

. MNI: RBA: AUD JAWBONING EFFECT NOT INCREASING BUT WILL DO IF NEEDED

. MNI: RBA GOV: WE THINK ABOUT EFFECT ON AUD WHEN SETTING CASH RATE

nw kw 01:38 GMT August 20, 2014
Forex News

lumber indicated strong housing 3weeks ago but now full time construction workers will send nfp or usd to strength, than support bonds, and usd/jpy

GVI Forex 01:31 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

MNI: RBA:CONSIDERED INTERVENTION SERIOUSLY BEFORE WHEN AUD WAS HIGH

MNI: RBA GOV: AUD HASN'T REVISITED THAT HIGH LEVEL SINCE THEN

Livingston nh 01:29 GMT August 20, 2014
Could beheading rattle the stock market?

This is a political event w/ no financial consequence unless it becomes military - stox won't revalue for anything less than a Fed event // UKR is still more important because of the sanctions escalation game
IN the US ::
Political morphs into Financial = bad for stox // Political morphs into Military = good for stox

Mtl JP 01:24 GMT August 20, 2014
Forex News

beg your pardon blog, but gv's database says:
Statistic: 07/1/2014 - 07/31/2014
Results USD/JPY High
Average 101.8994
Minimum 101.3880
Maximum 103.0900
fwiw

Mtl JP 01:19 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD



kw 00:33 nyet, no lumber on my radar.
crude n Gold
-
usdyen still struggling to test 103.09

GVI Forex Blog 01:12 GMT August 20, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index at 11-month high thanks to dollar's broad gains

* Euro/dollar at 9-month low, risks fall below $1.30

* Dollar/yen seen testing July peak of 103.15 yen

FOREX-Dollar holds upper hand after solid housing starts data

GVI Forex 01:06 GMT August 20, 2014
Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another
Reply   
(Reuters) - Islamic State insurgents released a video on Tuesday purportedly showing the beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley, who had gone missing in Syria nearly two years ago, and images of another U.S. journalist whose life they said depended on U.S. action in Iraq.

Islamic State says beheads U.S. journalist, holds another

Syd 00:50 GMT August 20, 2014
Could beheading rattle the stock market?
Reply   
The US stock market has put together the best couple of days in about four months and it has been the ‘de-hotting’ of the Russia-Ukraine standoff that has helped. This has been added to by some good US economic data on top of a good company reporting season. But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?

But has a new geopolitical concern raised its ugly head?

Syd 00:48 GMT August 20, 2014
When will the long-awaited fall in the Aussie dollar happen?
Reply   
Economist Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics, looks at the key determinants that will move the dollar.

aud

GVI Forex 00:44 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN INFLOW HAS POTENTIAL TO RAISE AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: BUT BENEFIT IS CHEAPER CAPITAL FOR AUSTRALIA

MNI: RBA GOV: JAPAN FUNDS COULD STILL FIND ITS WAY INTO AUSTRALIA

nw kw 00:40 GMT August 20, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

I herd jpy has no third arroyo /

nw kw 00:33 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

jp-you monitoring lumber ??????????? cheap bonds so what to trade/

nw kw 00:30 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

aud growth outlook might be helping aud hold its same forecast as china's /copper not bad off

nw kw 00:27 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

jp-you have a take on QQQ,chart interesting might be banks or tek

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:26 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to verbal intervention

GVI Forex 00:26 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

MNI: RBA GOV: BIGGER SOURCE OF AUD RISE IN GLOBAL CAPITAL INFLOW

Little reaction to the verbal intervention

Mtl JP 00:18 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD

was that Stevens yakking ?
so far worth about just a few temporary nega pips , could nt even breach 0.9239

babble shmable put some money where your mouth instead

GVI Forex 00:00 GMT August 20, 2014
Currency War: AUD
Reply   
MNI: RBA GOV:LITTLE ATTENTION PAID NOW TO PROSPECT OF FED RATE RISE

MNI: RBA GOV: RISK OF AUD FALLING IS BEING UNDERAPPRECIATED

MNI: RBA:ON MOST METRICS WLD BE SURPRISING IF AUD REMAINS THIS HIGH

MNI: RBA: DIDN'T NEED TO USE INTERVENTION TILL DATE IN THIS EPISODE

MNI: GOV: FOREX INTERVENTION REMAINS PART OF RBA'S TOOLKIT

MNI: RBA GOV: WON'T GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE IF INTEND TO INTERVENE

 




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