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Forex Forum Archive for 08/21/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


to dk 23:46 GMT August 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map



Buy EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

test

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:06 GMT August 21, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Reply   
Forex Trade of the Day

Event Filled Friday offers an opportunity. Feel free to agree, disagree, discuss, or post your own trade.

GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT August 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 21, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 22. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen, EZ- Draghi

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi at Jackson Hole
  • North America: CA= CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen at Jackson Hole, COT Report


GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT August 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Reply   
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Mtl JP 21:19 GMT August 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map

nh 18:59 GMT August 11, 2014
The geo-political concerns have not (and cannot) be resolved -- these are political and they will resurface // only a positive war outcome can settle a political issue - otherwise it festers to reappear at a later date //
-
today from Hagel: ISIS Is 'Beyond Anything' The U.S. Has Seen

and

according to Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Thursday afternoon that it would not be possible to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria without attacking its fighters in Syria.
-
Billion dollar aircraft carriers, billion dollar nuclear subs, f-18s, hellfires, b-52s, B-1s, space and cyber spy network, nearly $500 billion yearly budget...
what are they missing ?

nw kw 21:14 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

cad bonds indicating strong print eur/cat intresting

dc CB 21:03 GMT August 21, 2014
Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole



Gold


The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. will it be Smacked again hard overnight?????

dc CB 20:21 GMT August 21, 2014
Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole

“We’re going into the Labor Day with the lowest gasoline prices for most motorists since 2010 for the holiday,” Michael Green, a Washington-based AAA spokesman, said by phone yesterday. “This really helps make travel more affordable and leave travelers with more money to spend on other things while on their trips.”

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

(lowest gasoline prices Since THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS...TinHat Co-inkydink Patrol)

Labor Day Weekend to See Most U.S. Drivers in Six Years

dc CB 20:11 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

chart of the day

SnP

Lahore FM 19:57 GMT August 21, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Buy usdx
Entry: Now Target: Three month exit Stop: To your tolerance

Just when some desperate usd bears are groping about thinking this is thetail end of usd bullrun a freaky spike further pushing usd higher makes most sense.several charts that reval upcoming usd strength or weakness point to more usd strength for another stretch of several weeks.

Crude and gold harbingers.usdchf and usdcad perhaps next two.

GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT August 21, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

FRIDAY
12:30 CA CPI
12:30 CA Retail Sales
14:00 FRB Yellen Jackson Hole- dovish comments???
18:30 EZ Draghi Jackson Hole- dovish

nw kw 19:41 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

U.S. oil prices rose slightly Thursday on tight supply and signs of an improving economy.


GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT August 21, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:17 GMT August 21, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Mtl JP 19:16 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

SnP to 1,993
DJIA to 17,066
all economic signs are fantastic
there is no yellen put

dc CB 19:01 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

10AM Friday... probably minus a milli second or two,
will belong to the Borg Collective...We will take-out all your stops...and assimilate your funds

Resistance is Futile...

GVI Forex john 18:53 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

nh I have no other explanation for why shares are up and bond yields are falling. I'm just saying I feel the markets have a lot of room for disappointment tomorrow.

Add to that, the rocket scientists behind Dodd-Frank, including former genius Paul Volcker, have stripped all the liquidity from the markets. Wait for the next flash crash!

Livingston nh 18:45 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

Livingston nh 18:45 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

John - How can Yellen move the needle unless she acknowledges labor improvement? Her hang-ups are slack and wage growth which is a function of her NAIRU belief - interest rates are secondary, almost derivative, to the NAIRU crew (and from this level Fed can only move rates one way)

She is a BIG fan of "IF" as a model -- so more data is always desirable

What could she say in the context of the labor situation??

dc CB 18:39 GMT August 21, 2014
Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole
Reply   
the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove.

So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish

dc CB 18:34 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

dc CB 01:28 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes:
a little over 36 hours before Gammy's Speak-O-Rama is released
How low will it go? sub 1240?

The Yellen(FED Speaker) Trade....1273.4 low today. Smacked again hard overnight?????

GVI Forex Blog 18:20 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS:, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Fed's Yellen, EZ- ECB's Draghi

Friday sees Canadian inflation and Retail Sales data. Also Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium. U.S. data on Friday were broadly better than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims fell slightly back below the 300K line. The Markit Mfg PMI surged higher, Existing Homes sales gained strongly, while Leading Indicators and Philly Fed Index both outperformed expectations.

U.S. Data Solid. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker

GVI Forex john 18:09 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10=yr 2.403% -3bp

the market has fully discounted a dovish Yellen. The risk is that she disappoints!

dc CB 17:33 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

O O OCare ...special questions on the PhillyFed

AffordableCare Questions

Mtl JP 16:12 GMT August 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

picture worth millions of words of what ails the money printers:
lack of usage of their so-called "stimulus"
curtesy: st louis fed

GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT August 21, 2014
EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading
Reply   

This article is based around a regular series of reports I publish most business days on the public forex forum at global-view.com. This report is based on what appears to be a simple graph (see below) which contains a surprising amount of information.


The heart of the chart is two red interest rate lines. The dotted red line is the U.S. Fed Funds rate which is the administered overnight interest rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This rate moves up and down in response to Fed actions to try to manage the economy.

EXCLUSIVE CHARTS: Fundamentals for Trading

GVI Forex Blog 15:36 GMT August 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
EUR/USD hit resistance around 1.3245 overnight and has moved up toward 1.3290 through the US session. Gold fell to two-month lows below $1,280 this morning, most likely thanks to expectations the Fed could hike interest rates sooner than expected. Note that the yield on the 10-year UST has not eased up much, with buying though the US session driving it momentarily below 2.42%.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole; US PMI and Housing Data Outperform

GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off


Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON mild posture late in Europe on Thursday. Flash PMI data in the Fare East and Europe were been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. U.S. headline data were broadly stronger than forecast. EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned lower from earlier ahead of Draghi on Friday. The 10-yr bund is 0.99% 0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are down.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.41%  -1bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.42%, -1bp. A major focus is an expected  dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is 2.40%. I'm not  sure Yellen will be as dovish  as hoped for.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 15:13 GMT August 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

nh that sounds like Janet thinks it is better for Americans (in general) to live in poverty

Livingston nh 15:01 GMT August 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay - Yellen will be more dovish because of the recent strength of the USD - this is one of her favorite inflation expectation bromides // I doubt she will pull a Carney but she will likely use the pulpit to push back against the markets' reaction to yesterday's Minutes

Livingston nh 15:01 GMT August 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

Jay - Yellen will be more dovish because of the recent strength of the USD - this is one of her favorite inflation expectation bromides // I doubt she will pull a Carney but she will likely use the pulpit to push back against the markets' reaction to yesterday's Minutes

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:50 GMT August 21, 2014
Agree or Disagree? EURUSD

My daily forex video posted earlier on GVIForex:


Video Market Update

Will defense set in ahead of Yellen's speech?

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT August 21, 2014
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Change (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
+88 vs.+ 82 exp vs. +78 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 14:29 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

from Dow Jones
"...Within the Philadelphia Fed survey, the subindexes generally were expansionary but more subdued this month. The new orders index fell to 14.7 after it almost doubled to 34.2 from 16.8 in July. The shipments index dropped to 16.5 from 34.2. The employees index fell to 9.1 from 12.2 last month. The workweek index edged up to 13.3 from 12.5. The prices-received index fell sharply to 4.2 from 16.8 last month. Philadelphia manufacturers are very upbeat about the next six months..."

GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

red - thanks for that. I had not looked into the Philly Fed data yet.

london red 14:19 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

fwiw philly fed underlying pretty poor across the board, all down sharply on july, inventories higher. its just one piece of data, but yellen expected to play same tune as usual tomorrow, so as good a reason to take profits as any.

GVI Forex Blog 14:18 GMT August 21, 2014 Reply   
August 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 22, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT August 21, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex News
Reply   


August 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, August 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi at Jackson Hole
  • North America: CA= CPI, Retail Sales, US- Yellen at Jackson Hole, COT Report


GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10-yr 2.418% -1bp

bond traders are making a pretty strong bet on a dovish Yellen tomorrow. I think they might be leaning against the wind.

GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index

Philly Fed up in line with other U.S. data.

GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim

More bad news for the EZ.

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT August 21, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)

Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Recovery in housing market continues. Pending Homes sales had sent an incorrect signal for July data.


GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. July 2014 Leading Indicators
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+0.90% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.30% (r +0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 Consumer Confidence prelim
Reply   




ALERT
-10.1 vs. -9.1 vs. -8.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT August 21, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
Reply   




ALERT
5.1500 vs. 5.000 exp. vs. 5.040 (r 5.03)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Philly Fed Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+28.0 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +23.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI

U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI much stronger than forecast.


GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI
Reply   
U.S. August 2014 Markit flash Mfg PMI




ALERT
58.0 vs. 55.7 exp. vs. 55.8 prelim


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

NY JM 13:39 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Treasury yields backing off (10-year last at 2.42%) and fx following in mindless day awaiting Yellen tomorrow.

GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Decent weekly jobless report. FWIW this is the week in which the August employment report is calculated

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Weekly Jobless claims data continues at reduced levels.





Click on chart for ten-year history

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
298K vs. 300K exp. vs. 311K (r 312 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.500 vs. 2.518 exp. vs. 2.544 (r 2.549 ) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

NY JM 12:24 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD corrections have fallen shy of where one would expect given short positioning for the past month. The pattern around 1.34 was selling above worked better than selling below it, see if 1.33 replaces 1.34 but while below 1.3294, risk clearly down and on next target at 1.3100-05.

GVI Forex john 11:47 GMT August 21, 2014
Daily USD based Pivot Points
Reply   
Daily USD based Pivot Points. Basis previous session ranges...





SaaR KaL 11:45 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY In general turning into Oct/2014 tgt 98
Into Mid Sept ..I got a 4 O'clock trend
104 to 102 (Possible 100)
Then a fast dive into 98

Making a decent before landing I guess

GVI Forex john 11:41 GMT August 21, 2014
Official rates vs. 2yr yields
Reply   
Two-year yields mostly higher after the UK and Fed Minutes yesterday. Individual currencies tend to be strongly influenced by their 2-yr rate.




SaaR KaL 11:34 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

NZDJPY Shorts
87.6112 85.7547
87.8899 85.5616
87.8862 85.5223
87.4968 84.4095
86.9453 83.6591

SaaR KaL 11:25 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPJPY shorts
173.4362 169.9706
172.6635 168.7822
172.7650 168.9756
172.5067 168.1807


Red
EURUSD shorts at higher levels I posted
1.3380 +
placed all those GTC

Ternopil SMV 11:24 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

Stockholm Max - thanks a lot.

Stockholm Max 11:17 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

SMV ... finally there is a correlation rates and stocks.

That is: usually Indices going north tend to increase rates. Indices going south tend to weigh on rates.
That explains why Yen crosses often go hand in hand with Indices/stocks.

Dovish Yellen and improving US economy (not really - but that's what they want to see there) supports stocks.
Furthermore there are a zillions of reasons why to be bullish Indices. The most important among many: global total crazy stock buyback mania, CBs buying more stocks as they earn almost nothing with bonds, banks being driven out of the commodity business buying more stocks, Pensionfunds same fate as CB - they need income and with low rates they are also to buy more stocks. All that combined explains why stocks are rallying - despite the fundamentals globally in closet.
Soaring stocks - at some point are gonna pull rates along. Despite all the CBs trying to supress them.

Then there is a fight inside the admin: Military and producing corporations (strong dollar - want lower commodities) against the bankers (weak dollar- want artificially high commodity prices). Bankers are losing ground and so the whole artifical house of prices of commodities comes down. That in turn supports also stocks which again pressures rates higher.

Combine it - and you have enough reason why yen crosses and stocks should continue to rise.

Again - trends can change anytime.

Disclaimer: I expect SnP minimum 22xx by year end. And considerable higher dollar and yen crosses.
I could be dead wrong of course.

gl & gt

london red 11:12 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

not a great deal going for the euro, but possibly not the best level to short it either. pmis werent tragic and 13248 is 38.2 of 1.20x/1.39x. was pierced briefly but while holding above, every chance of pre yellen covering to test 1.3333. lower bolli at 13286 in way first. much depends on US data today but you feel it wont take much for a stretched market to give back some dollar gains.
this isnt a bottom call for the euro, it will go a good deal lower when US rates fully kick in, but right now it could catch a breath.

Stockholm Max 11:06 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

SMV - furthermore:

Look at the weekly charts of several yen crosses.
What do you see there in general?
Very tight BBs - what means a big move is coming.
And you might see a chart pattern: First leg - consolidation - and what is to follow? Next leg.

Then look at the weekly of EURUSD. Or other dollar currencies.
EURUSD has clearly broken uptrend. And you have a developing trend.

That is the medium term outlook.
Poition traders try to follow prevailing main trends.
That is EURUSD (or other anti dollar currencies) short and EURJPY (or other yen crosses) long.

DYOD - as trends can change anytime.

SaaR KaL 11:04 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD
Will still short for another week

1.3388 1.3196
1.3442 1.3246
1.3436 1.3214
1.3430 1.3194
1.3382 1.3074

SaaR KaL 11:02 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

gold Longs
1305.5 1273.4
1336.5 1277.0
1335.0 1274.9
1333.9 1273.6

Stockholm Max 10:59 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

Yen since years is a matter of rates.
Market is/was expecting higher US rates - or earlier rate hikes via Yellen.
That boosts the dollar - and weighs on all other currencies.

I have been long several yen crosses since a day or so before FOMC decision.

Yen mot often is THE currency which tells you what is going to happen next. After it started weakening already before FOMC I smelled stronger rates and stronger dollar.
So went short EURUSD, GBPUSD and long USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY and others.
It worked out as expected.

So you were caught by EURJPY and EURUSD. You should have also looked at other Yen crosses and other currencies - then that picture might have reveiled what is/was going on.

Hope that explains.

SaaR KaL 10:58 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable SHorts
GTC

1.6792 1.6506
1.6753 1.6500
1.6694 1.6443
1.6668 1.6379
1.6619 1.6308

GVI Forex Blog 10:42 GMT August 21, 2014
Global Merkets News
Reply   
EUR/USD moved off its 11-month lows of 1.3242 but remained in the process of being adjusted (to French officials delight). Dealers noted that numerous factors continue to provide a headwinds for Europe - Sanctions and dis-inflation. Ukraine situation and the impact of sanctions

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Surveys come in mixed again

GVI Forex john 10:30 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

We are all here to help the best we can!

Ternopil SMV 10:28 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY
Reply   
GVI Forex john - thanks a lot for explanations!

GVI Forex john 10:24 GMT August 21, 2014
Risk On/Off Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. EUR mostly higher. JPY weaker again vs, the EUR as concern about Japanese energy imports mount. EURUSD steady but below 1.3300.




PAR 10:18 GMT August 21, 2014
EURO

Same applies to Europe . Draghi's action have everything to do with keeping government financing costs low and nothing to do with stimulating growth .

European measures are even worse since Europeans tend to save before they spend , contrary to credit addicted americans.

So if Europeans dont collect interest they just spend less .

SaaR KaL 10:01 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades

still bullish USDCAD
but i closed 90% of Pos here
relongs 1.0896

GVI Forex j 09:59 GMT August 21, 2014
EURO

Good points. The U.S. unemployment issue is largely structural, which is why the Fed can't do anything about it and why stimulus programs have not been working.

Yes higher interest rates will make financing the debt more difficult.

GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

SMV- busy day. Sorry so slow to get back to you. The JPY turned south yesterday due to concerns about the growing Japanese trade deficit which was hit by increased crude imports in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Markets see Japan becoming increasing dependent on oil imports as it has been forced to move away from nuclear power. This is independent of cyclical factors and is seen as a "new" ongoing drain on Japan.

SaaR KaL 09:33 GMT August 21, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
JPY crosses is where the trades are
expecially EURJPY
I started shorts and adding
hoping for an average entry 138 area
for 132 tgt

GVI Forex Blog 09:06 GMT August 21, 2014
Flash PMI's Mixed. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Existing Homes

The U.S. sees an active calendar today. The August China HSBC was a disappointment as it fell. The new flash Japanese PMI improved. In the Eurozone, the flash EZ manufacturing PMIs all weakened ; key Services PMIs fell as well except in France. U.K. Retail Sales mostly mixed street estimates..

Flash PMI's Mixed. China HSBC Misses, but Japan Improves. EZ PMI's Mixed to Weaker

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:05 GMT August 21, 2014
AceTrader Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

21 Aug 2014

EUR/USD - .... Germany services n manufacturing PMIs came in better-than-expected at 56.4 n 52.0 vs forecasts of 55.7 n 51.8 respectively.

France manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 46.5 vs forecast of 47.8 whilst services PMI came in better-than-expected at 51.1 vs forecast of 50.0.

A piece of news extracted fm Bloomberg worth noting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will provide her take on the latest data on labor markets in a keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Yellen has in speeches and congressional testimony focused on reducing slack in labor markets. She measures that with an array of indicators - such as the share of unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more - not solely on the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent last month, down from 6.7 percent at the end of 2013.

In her Jackson Hole speech, Yellen could, as the minutes did, stress job-market progress. Or she could continue to point to the slack shown on her dashboard of labor-market data, which show the long-term unemployed, those out of work for 27 weeks or longer, represent 33 percent of the jobless, above the 19 percent average of 2004 to 2007.

PAR 08:59 GMT August 21, 2014
EURO
Reply   
Long EUR at 1.3270. Stop .3240. Objective open.

Stocks think no FED rate hikes , forex thinks FED to hike .


Rates have nothing to do with unemployment , rates have everything to do with keeping the FED balance sheet in shape and trying to keep financing costs on the US gigantic debt as low as possible .

GVI Forex john 08:52 GMT August 21, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply   

Current Market Conditions:
European markets remain are in a RISK-ON posture early Thursday. Flash PMI data have been mixed to slightly weaker than forecast. Equity prices are mostly up along with bond yields.The EURUSD has been holding below 1.3300.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have turned broadly higher. The 10-yr bund is 1.01% +2 bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are up.  A dovish ECB president Draghi speaks late Friday from Jackson Hole.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.45%  +3bp. I now expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.44%, +1bp. A major focus is dovish Fed Char Yellen's speech Friday in Jackson Hole. The psychological pivot is now 2.40%, but the old 2.50% pivot may b coming back into view..
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT August 21, 2014
July 2014 UK Retail Sales

U.K. Retail Sales data mixed but mostly miss street estimates. GBPUSD down.

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT August 21, 2014
July 2014 UK Retail Sales
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +0.10% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% (r +0.20%) prev.
yy: +2.60% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +3.60% (r +3.40%) prev.

x-fuel
Mfg mm: +0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
Mfg yy: +3.40% vs. +3.50% exp. vs. +4.00% (r +3.80%) prev.


RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


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Ternopil SMV 08:29 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Prof. traders. explain me please why eur/jpy going up without any reason for it. euro is very weak but this pair going up. Anybody explain, please!

GVI Forex john 08:17 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates

EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs France gains modestly.

GVI Forex john 08:15 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates

EZ, GE flash Mfg PMIs. all weakened.

GVI Forex john 08:03 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 EZ flash PMI Estimates
Reply   




ALERT
EZ
mfg: 50.8 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.
svc: 53.5 vs. 53.5 exp. vs. 54.3 prev.

France
mfg: 46.5 vs. 47.8 exp. vs. 47.8
svc: 51.1 vs. 50.2 exp. vs. 50.4

German
mfg: 52.0 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 52.4
svc: 56.4 vs. 55.5 exp. vs. 56.7


Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Forex john 07:59 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 Japan flash PMI

EARLIER: Japan flash PMI. Second-tier release but improves. Above 50...

GVI Forex john 07:58 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 China flash HSBC PMI

EARLIER: HSBC flash PMI weakens.

GVI Forex john 07:51 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
Reply   




Earlier
HSBC: 50.3 vs. 51.2 exp. vs. 51.7 prev.


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GVI Forex john 07:50 GMT August 21, 2014
August 2014 Japan flash PMI
Reply   




EARLIER NEWS ALERT
52.4 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 50.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



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Dubai M 07:48 GMT August 21, 2014
Signals service

Hey signals service you are risking 65 pips to make 34

That is not a risk-reward trade I would take

GVI Forex 07:33 GMT August 21, 2014
Alert: German PMI Next

Beats forecasts

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUGUST COMPOSITE PMI 54.9; JULY 55.7

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUG SERVICE PMI 56.4; MNI MEDIAN 55.7; JULY 56.7

MNI: GERMANY FLASH AUG MFG PMI 52.0; MNI MEDIAN 51.5; JULY 52.4

London London 07:26 GMT August 21, 2014
Signals service
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.32566 Target: 1.32323 Stop: 1.33210

FOMC to market: get ready, ‘cause here we come! The dollar gained across the board (again!) after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest meeting showed that the hawks within the FOMC are shifting the grounds of the debate. There was no discussion on whether a rate hike might be warranted; rather, the group only debated whether to begin raising rates earlier than they currently anticipate in light of the rise in inflation and the faster-than-expected improvement in the labor market. The key passage read: o “…many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee’s objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated. Indeed, some participants viewed the actual and expected progress toward the Committee’s goals as sufficient to call for a relatively prompt move toward reducing policy accommodation to avoid overshooting the Committee’s unemployment and inflation objectives…”


Posted with permission of global-view.com

Autotrade forex signals

GVI Forex 07:17 GMT August 21, 2014
Alert: German PMI Next
Reply   
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-The German PMIs likely will reflect some moderation in activity, following the surprising strength recorded in July. On our estimate, both the headline manufacturing and services indexes decreased in August (to 52.1 and 54.3, respectively), likely driven by geopolitical developments. However, these levels would still be consistent with relatively resilient growth in Q3, in line with our forecast (0.3% qoq).

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis

GVI Forex 07:09 GMT August 21, 2014
Chna PMI
Reply   
Out earlier

The HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in August from July's 18-month high of 51.7, badly missing a Reuters forecast of 51.5.
RTRS

GVI Forex 07:01 GMT August 21, 2014
French PMI
Reply   
MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUG MFG PMI 46.5; MNI MEDIAN 47.8; JULY 47.8

MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUG SERVICE PMI 51.1; MNI MEDIAN 50.2; JULY 50.4 8

MNI: FRANCE FLASH AUGUST COMPOSITE PMI 50.0; JULY 49.4

Belgrade Knez 05:37 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY


Amman wfakhoury

I cannot find in your previous post about 137.03 lvl you mentioned, must be for your own clients only.

However, thanks for your answer.

Amman wfakhoury 05:23 GMT August 21, 2014
EUR/JPY

Belgrade Knez 16:41 GMT 08/20/2014

Amman wfakhoury

EUR/JPY never went to your tgt of 136.50 .... are you still waiting for that tgt to be hit, or different view now, please?

_______________________________________---
You ignored the second part of return level 137.03 we are now making money from adding sell above 13703.
when price closed below 13703 then we ar going to 136.50

GVI Forex Blog 04:39 GMT August 21, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA AUG HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.3 V 51.5E (First sequential decline in 5 months; 3-month low) - (JP) JAPAN AUG MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.4 V 51.5E (5-month high; 3rd st

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Slump in China HSBC Flash PMI sends Aussie to 11-week lows - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 04:04 GMT August 21, 2014
Global Markets News

writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Nobel economists say policy blunders pushing Europe into depression

..."the eurozone needs joint debt issuance"... according to Professor Joseph Stiglitz
-
ya, that is the ticket: more, widely spread debt

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT August 21, 2014 Reply   
The US markets kept the sentiment positive on the back of encouraging

Morning Briefing : 21-Aug-2014 -0337 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:26 GMT August 21, 2014
AceTrader Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

21 Aug 2014 02:33GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning following yesterday's mildly hawkish FOMC minutes, price easily penetrated NY high at 103.85 at Tokyo open n climbed to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 103.96 as gain in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment.

As the follow-through buying from Asian traders indicates upside bias remains, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, however, investors should stay alert ahead of the daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) as only a firm rise above there would indicate an 'upside break' of 7-month broad range of 100.76-104.13 has taken place n yield further headway twd 105.00 later this month. Bids are noted at 103.70/60 n then 103.50/45 with stpps emerging below 103.30. On the upside, offers are placed at 104.00 n with mixture of offers n stops located at 104.10-20.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales. Another key event is the 3-day annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen & ECB Governor Mario Draghi will both speak in the event on Fri.

USD/JPY - .... U.S. dollar strengthened to a 4-1/2 month high at 103.75 versus the Japanese yen after the release of FOMC minutes. Bids are now located at 103.60-50 and more at 103.30 with stops only seen below 103.20. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 103.85-95 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 104.00 option barrier.

Thursday will see the release of Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France's Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany's Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone's manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index and existing home sales. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins on Thursday.

dc CB 01:28 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



a little over 36 hours before Gammy's Speak-O-Rama is released

How low will it go? sub 1240?

dc CB 01:15 GMT August 21, 2014
just a licence fee

But a complication has emerged: Mr. Mozilo’s lawyers have cautioned the prosecutors in Los Angeles that their client has a serious illness. The prosecutors have sought Mr. Mozilo’s health records, the people said, though for now the case remains on track.

In a statement, Mr. Mozilo’s lawyer said that he would “not comment on reported rumors concerning any investigation.” He added, however, that “there is no sound or fair basis, in law or fact, to pursue any claim against Angelo Mozilo. This story has gone on more than long enough; Mr. Mozilo stands virtually alone among banking and mortgage executives to actually have been pursued by this government and already paid a record penalty” to the S.E.C.

Bloomberg News earlier reported the plans to file a lawsuit.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Too bad Angelo. You were a bit early. Now Orange is the new Black. Back then it weren't.

Bank of America Expected to Settle Huge Mortgage Case

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:53 GMT August 21, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

1.3282 = daily pivot
1.3237 = S1
1.3212 = S2
1.3167 = S3

1.3223 = 61.,87% of 1.2745-1.3996

G-V Forex Chart :Points

dc CB 00:53 GMT August 21, 2014
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes



There is a story about the great Catalan surrealist painter Salvador Dali. It is said that in the last years of his life, when he was already famous, he signed checks knowing that they would not be submitted to the bank for payment. Rather, after partying with his friends and consuming the most expensive items the restaurants had to offer, he would ask for the bill, pull out one of his checks, write the amount, and sign it. Before handing over the check, he quickly turned it around, made a drawing on the back and autographed it. Dali knew the owner of the restaurant would not cash the check but keep it, put it in a frame, and display it in the most prominent place in the restaurant: “An original Dali.”

It was a good deal for Dali: his checks never came back to the bank to be cashed, and he still enjoyed great banquets with all of his friends. Dali had a magic checkbook.

Salvador Dali - Central Banker?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:51 GMT August 21, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

One of our GTA members has offered to share his simple but effective system with us.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: A Simple but Effective Trading System

GVI Forex Blog 00:46 GMT August 21, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
* Dollar index races to fresh 11-month highs

* Minutes showed Fed debated about raising interest rates earlier

* BOE minutes also surprise with two members voting to hike rates * China flash PMI survey next in focus

FOREX-Dollar rally finds new wings on hawkish-sounding Fed minutes

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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