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Forex Forum Archive for 08/26/2014

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sd sf 23:52 GMT August 26, 2014
Morning
Reply   
have not had much to say really that would interest anyone.

This morning however 3 different models came in to buy @41-42 in GBP and it was still quite offered until another model kicked in and bght @40.5 - that seemed to affirm o/sold and stabilize it at the 45-46-47 levels.

eurusd less models but same thing at 67/67.7 area.

We are basically in a news driven market - with condensed ranges in the mean time.

Mtl JP 21:54 GMT August 26, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

yeah... lets distrubute its
T o t a l a s s e t s: $461,885,500
to The People !

GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT August 26, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



August 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- 5-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 5-yr


dc CB 21:00 GMT August 26, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

because it was published by the Council on Foreign Relations.

about the CFR

Mtl JP 20:42 GMT August 26, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

dc CB 18:34 - pray tell... why d'u post that link ?

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT August 26, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

WEDNESDAY
17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
THURSDAY
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
FRIDAY
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP

GVI Forex john 20:35 GMT August 26, 2014
Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.300 vs. 1.750 exp vs. -4.470 prev.
Gasoline: -3.200 vs. -1.625 exp vs. +0.590 prev.
Distillates:+2.400 vs. -0.750 exp vs. -0.960 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.70% vs. 92.90% exp vs. 93.40% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 20:33 GMT August 26, 2014
eurusd

It is more information on an existing discussion.

Mtl JP 20:26 GMT August 26, 2014
eurusd

Forex 19:55 seeing that post is under eurdlr thread , is that a hint at a trade idea reinforcing short euros?

GVI Forex john 20:15 GMT August 26, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...








Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:

A Simple but Effective Trading System



GVI Forex 19:55 GMT August 26, 2014
eurusd

MINSK - ONE-ON-ONE MEETING BETWEEN RUSSIA'S PUTIN, UKRAINE'S POROSHENKO HAS STARTED - UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION ON TWITTER

GVI Forex john 19:36 GMT August 26, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT August 26, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 18:34 GMT August 26, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

but for today we'll just give it directly to the Banks

Tuesday's POMO (aka why the market hit new highs just after 11AM)

$2.275 Billion done at 11

GVI Forex Blog 18:30 GMT August 26, 2014
U.S. Data Beat Easily on Upside. Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to Weaken EURUSD?
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- 5-yr Auction

The only key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction. Major data follow later in the month. There are reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. We can see how such an accord would be in the self-interest of both.

U.S. Data Beat Easily on Upside. Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to Weaken EURUSD?

dc CB 18:13 GMT August 26, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People
Reply   
It’s well past time, then, for U.S. policymakers -- as well as their counterparts in other developed countries -- to consider a version of Friedman’s helicopter drops.

central banks, such as the Fed, should hand consumers cash directly.

Such an approach would represent the first significant innovation in monetary policy since the inception of central banking, yet it would not be a radical departure from the status quo.

Print Less but Transfer More

GVI Forex john 18:08 GMT August 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Higher equities pulling USDJPY higher. Previous HOD today 104.17
last 104.15.
pivot res 1 = 104.34

Lots of room on top if shares continue to gain.

GVI Forex john 18:01 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

S&P 500 making new all-time intra-day highs of 2003.

GVI Forex john 17:51 GMT August 26, 2014
Pivot Points USD & EUR

EURUSD Pivot Supports:
Level 2 1.3161
Level 3 1.3139

LOD so far 1.3165

GVI Forex john 17:05 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

2-yr 0.530%
bid to cover 3.48 vs. 3.22
mixed.

Tallinn viies 16:56 GMT August 26, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
no Ukrainian agreement anytime soon as there will be parliament elections in october in Ukraine
war goes on until october.

Central Kwun 16:33 GMT August 26, 2014
Sell Gold

I think if agreement reached, the EUR may fly high

GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT August 26, 2014
Sell Gold

All I have read is that the talks will run "through t.day" I would not be expecting much?

Central Kwun 16:19 GMT August 26, 2014
Sell Gold
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

When can we know the result of meeting from Ulkraine and Russia?

GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply   

Current Market Conditions:
Late Tuesday in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK posture with equities up and bond yields lower. Chatter about a possible agreement between ECB President Draghi to weaken the EURUSD have been passed around. EURUSD is  pivoting the 1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on dovish view on the ECB. The 10-yr bund is 0.95%  0bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.45%  -9bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.39%, +1bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are broadly higher. U.S. shares are up..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 14:52 GMT August 26, 2014 Reply   
August 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- 5-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 27, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT August 26, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 26, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, August 27. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: US- 5-yr Auction

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, 5-yr


GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT August 26, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

Divergent charts?

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT August 26, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

CHART: Univ of Michigan &Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much stronger than expected.





NY JM 14:02 GMT August 26, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey

Little reaction to data

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT August 26, 2014
August 2014 U.S. Conference Board Survey
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
92.4 vs. 88.8 exp. vs. 90.9 prev.


RELEASE: Consumer Confidence Data



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT August 26, 2014
U.S. July 2014 Richmond Fed Index
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
+12 vs. +8 exp. vs. +7 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Livingston nh 13:54 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

John - seems to me that the US 10 yr benefits from foreign buyers who get a higher rate than many EU countries offer and a currency kicker // today's 2 yr should benefit from the rate and currency despite the inevitable rate hike risk

Tier 1 capital (see how that works out) needs to cover the barn door legislation around the world and rate convergence in the EU (try, try again) -- perfect together

london red 13:52 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

US bonds to some extent taking lead from bunds, following on from draghi weekend banter. youve also got ukraine talks in progress which are unlikely to yiled aelthing concrete. and month end squaring.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10-yr 2.373% -3bp.

does not make a lot of sense to me unless the markets are reacting to the underlying weakness in Durable Goods?

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT August 26, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
Correlation trade (day-trade) between S&P and USDJPY seems to have been breaking down recently. With USD broadly starting to build upside momentum as this market starts to trade again and equities in another upleg, the correlation trade should start to kick in again.

Kuroda comments at Jackson Hole were JPY bearish (USDJPY bullish).

GVI Forex john 13:19 GMT August 26, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20

Many people like the Case Shiller index. I don't know what to do with it. Y/Y gains on house prices have been falling steadily

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT August 26, 2014
June 2014 U.S. Case Shiller-20
Reply   



ALERT
+8.10% vs. +8.20% exp. vs. +9.30% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:55 GMT August 26, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Reply   


See this chart for how EURUSD is trading below the 1.3221 gap.

See below for my Trade of the day video update on GVI Forex. Send me an EMAIL if you would like access to my daily video updates.

Forex Trade of the Day

EURUSD consolidating around 1.32 for 2nd day but risk remains for 1.3105 while below 1.3294. On upside, gaps still at 1.3221 (fri low) or 1.3245 (Fri close) depending on which gao you use. Still using 1.3180 (tested), 1.3150 and 1.3120 as ;potential supports in the absence of any meaningful levels until 1.3105.

london red 12:55 GMT August 26, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

for yen watch 100 hour ma.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:51 GMT August 26, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Reply   
See this chart for how EURUSD is trading below the 1.3221 gap.

See below for my Trade of the day video update on GVI Forex. Send me an EMAIL if you would like access to my daily video updates.

Forex Trade of the Day

EURUSD consolidating around 1.32 for 2nd day but risk remains for 1.3105 while below 1.3294. On upside, gaps still at 1.3221 (fri low) or 1.3245 (Fri close) depending on which gao you use. Still using 1.3180 (tested), 1.3150 and 1.3120 as ;potential supports in the absence of any meaningful levels until 1.3105.

london red 12:41 GMT August 26, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

cap goods ex ex came in rather strong at 1.5% and its put a floor under dollar. for yen 103.65, 35 and 11 and the main ones to keep interest in breakout. top side 104,13 and 45 but dont see a break abv latter until we get some retracement first.

GVI Forex john 12:36 GMT August 26, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Surge in Durable Goods orders due to aircraft. A large increase had been expcted but this gain was well above estimates. Underlying readings showed weakness.

NY JM 12:35 GMT August 26, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Key is in the details and ex-transport came in - instead of + but last month revised up sharply.

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT August 26, 2014
July 2014 U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Headline: +22.6% vs. +7.00% exp. vs. +1.70% (r +2.70%) prev.
Ex-Trans:-0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.90% (r +3.00%) prev.





TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 12:23 GMT August 26, 2014
NZD

nzd trade data y/y not too bad but the monthly was a miss. nzd suffered only in advance with little loss following the numbers. you still fancy a rate rise in nzd before the fed, so at some point the kiwi is a buy. but at the moment its been a momentum trade with market focusing on the nzd pause and the fed normalisation. support at 83 and 82, i dont fancy to go thru the letter this year unless US data (inflation/wages) really takes off. i can see down to maybe 80 next year before a longer rally back up to 86/88.

US durables and caps up soon. durable headline shud stun to upside thanks to aircraft orders. usdjpy has a chance of fib retest c. 104.45 if 104.13 the day high can be beaten. otherwise risk to downside as dollar overall due a breather. but it needs a trigger all the same. weaker confidence might do it. but id rather see it (dollar) higher first for better r/r.

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT August 26, 2014
Correction
Reply   
Durable Goods Consensus Forecast +7.00% m/m not +2.10% which we had earlier on our calendar.

Brisbane PD 12:22 GMT August 26, 2014
NZD

Hi Jay,
I've been trading them for a while.
:>)
Regards

NY JM 12:03 GMT August 26, 2014
NZD
Reply   
Is anyone looking at the NZD and AUDNZD?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:42 GMT August 26, 2014
The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium



This is my latest article and a timely one as it explains fx price action and should help you put it in perspective.

The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium

GVI Forex john 10:54 GMT August 26, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view.
EUR mixed in a directionless session. EURUSD pivoting 1.3200.




GVI Forex Blog 10:32 GMT August 26, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD was consolidating its post Jackson Hole symposium gains as dealers noted that it could be 'overbought' on a technical basis. Nonetheless the EUR bounce was limited as fallout from the Draghi dovish tone from Jackson Hole reverberated as UK participant s returned from their extended weekend

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets continue to anticipate that ECB will enact QE at some future point

london red 10:18 GMT August 26, 2014
Pivot Points USD & EUR

Fwiw durable headline is likely to be double figures. Core more subdued. Confidence likely softer.

GVI Forex john 10:07 GMT August 26, 2014
Pivot Points USD & EUR

Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data..
Basis previous session ranges...





Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Hong Kong AceTrader 10:04 GMT August 26, 2014
AceTrader Aug 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

26 Aug 2014 09:43GMT

EUR/USD - .... News fm Reuters, Ukrainian military spokesman Lysenko said, quote:
'Ukrainian military has destroyed 12 armoured infantry carriers in Novoazovsk area using artillery n aircraft;
captured Russian soldiers were not in Ukraine by mistake, they were on a special mission.'
'attack by Russian separatists on town of Novoazovsk is continuing at this very minute, a hospital there is on fire.'

Despite euro's intra-day strong rebound from 1.3178 to 1.3214/15 at European open, the single currency came under renewed selling pressure and retreated to 1.3190 in European morning. However, price found some support there n staged a recovery.

Bids are now seen at 1.3180/85 n more below at 1.3160/70 with stops building up below there whilst offers are noted at 1.3250/60. Expect choppy trading to be seen till NY open in the absence of EZ economic data.

Earlier, Russian defence ministry said 'Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine crossed the border by mistake.'

GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT August 26, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format andover 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

GVI Forex Blog 09:24 GMT August 26, 2014
Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to weaken EURUSD? Conference Board Sentiment Survey Key?
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conf Board Sentiment, 2-yr

There are reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. We can see how such an accord would be in the self-interest of both. Tuesday sees U.S. Durable Goods, Case-Shiller Index, Richmond Fed, and the Conference Board Survey. Later there will be a 2-yr auction, Fed Discount Rate vote and weekly API data.

Secret Draghi and Yellen Accord to weaken EURUSD? Conference Board Sentiment Survey Key?

GVI Forex john 09:08 GMT August 26, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply   

Current Market Conditions:
Early Tuesday in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK-OFF posture. as London markets returned to the fray. Chatter about a possible agreement between  ECB President Draghi weaken the EURUSD have been passed around. EURUSD.is  pivoting the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen after on the dovish  ECB. The 10-yr bund is 0.94% -1bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt  yield is 2.48%  -6bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.38%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly lower. Bourses in Europe are mostly down. U.S. share futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


SaaR KaL 08:37 GMT August 26, 2014
Day's Trades

will cover my shorts USDJPY near 98 late sept

till my Profit take... lots Stalin talk will be around...and Good Luck

takes time...hehehe
avg short now at 103.98

SaaR KaL 08:31 GMT August 26, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
EURJPY IMO
we will see < 132 in sept

Long orders for EURUSD till x-mas
1.30 to 1.2870
tgt 1.45

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT August 26, 2014
EUR/USD : Current Comments
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Projected Series


... 1.3101 - 1.3134 - 1.3167 - 1.3184 // 1.3200 - 1.3217 - 1.3234 - 1.3250 - 1.3267* - 1.3284 - [1.3300] - 1.3317 - 1.3333* - 1.3350 - 1.3366 - 1.3383 - 1.3400* // 1.3416 - 1.3433 - 1.3466* - 1.3499 ...


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

GVI Forex Blog 04:13 GMT August 26, 2014 Reply   
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUL TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -692M V -475ME (1st deficit in 9 months) - (CN) CHINA JULY CONFERENCE BOARD ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 1.3% V 1.3% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN JUL PPI SERVICES Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: New Zealand trade falls into deficit as exports to China fall again - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:39 GMT August 26, 2014 Reply   
All the European markets celebrated the promise of more stimuli and even the weaker

Morning Briefing : 26-Aug-2014 -0338 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:23 GMT August 26, 2014
AceTrader Aug 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

26 Aug 2014 02:02GMT

EUR/USD - .... For 2 days in a row, Asia bore the brunt of the largest intra-day price swings. Despite meeting renewed selling in thin trading market condition ahead of Asian open on stop hunting, euro easily penetrated yesterday's 1.3183 low to a fresh 11-month trough of 1.3178, however, the single currency quickly pared intra-day loss and rebounded back to 1.3201.

Current usd's broad-based retreat vs G7 currencies in Asian morning suggests euro still has legs to move higher as Fri's CFTC report revealed euro shorts had climbed to its highest in 2 years, therefore, time is ripe for a short-covering rally to take place any time this week.

As no EZ data are due out in European morning, technical trading is expected to dominate near term price movement. Bids are noted at 1.3185-80 whilst some offers are tipped at 1.3210/20 with stops touted above there.

Last night, Ukraine Presidential spokesman said that it will hold a new parliamentary election on October 26.


Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's imports, exports and trade balance, China's leading economic index, U.S. durable goods and consumer confidence.

GVI Forex Blog 00:18 GMT August 26, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro falls to lowest in nearly two years on Swiss franc

* Speculation of more ECB action drives yields to record lows

* Sterling & Aussie show some resilience

FOREX-Euro bereft of support on ECB view, sterling off lows

dc CB 00:07 GMT August 26, 2014
The New Kids on the block
Reply   
The Islamic State, which now controls an area of Iraq and Syria larger than the U.K., may be raising more than $2 million dollars a day in revenue from oil sales, extortion, taxes and smuggling, according to U.S. intelligence officials and anti-terrorism finance experts.

Unlike other extremist groups’ reliance on foreign donations that can be squeezed by sanctions, diplomacy and law enforcement, the Islamic State’s predominantly local revenue stream poses a unique challenge to governments seeking to halt its advance ......................

“It’s not totally clear where they’re storing all this money, but there may be ways to actually go after it,” he said. Whether or not it’s in a bank account, “you’ve got to put it somewhere.”

Islamic State Now Resembles the Taliban With Oil Fields

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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