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Forex Forum Archive for 08/27/2014

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sd sf 23:14 GMT August 27, 2014
NZD
Reply   
yesterday we were @28 at this time and spent all day heading up to 80

this morning we are @71 see what this does as it does seem to lead most others.

the average move we have been seeing is 40-50 pips.

sd sf 23:12 GMT August 27, 2014
loonie

Yeah - I switched off my CAD bots yesterday with the Hortons deal not wanting to stand in front of anything... it is a real wipe out in the CAD crosses in terms of price.

the other things I do have orders in are stuck - this could be a long day here in Asia... as expectations are changed.

New York Trading Statistics 21:29 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...





Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


New York Calendar 21:20 GMT August 27, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

THURSDAY
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
FRIDAY
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Global-View Chart Points updated daily. Seven currency bases and in printer-friendly format and over 50 currency pairs.

Foreign Currency Exchange Tables

New York Calendar 20:45 GMT August 27, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


August 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, GB- CBI Distributive Trades
  • North America: CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales, Natural Gas, 7-yr


london red 20:21 GMT August 27, 2014
loonie
Reply   
past fib and supp/res at 10860 last line of defence ahead of 200 day ma. if cleared we could get a full retrace to close at 200 day ma or higher and ive missed my ride. if can stay below 60 im hopeful of some more downside tomorrow to 10820 area, ahead of 10809 fib.

Mtl JP 19:45 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

PAR 19:14 could be more than interesting
is that all u have atm ?

New York Trading Statistics 19:35 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

PAR 19:32 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-biggest-tax-scam-ever-20140827

PAR 19:14 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Imho some hedge funds which have been betting on higher rates are close to collapsing .

Something similar to MF Global when peripheral European rates went up .

We will know soon .

GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10-yr 2.359% yields slipping into the close.

New York Trading Statistics 19:07 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...




GVI Forex Blog 18:47 GMT August 27, 2014
Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobs, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

Thursday features German employment data, U.S. Weekly jobless, revised GDP, and Pending Homes Sales. A key focus of trade Wednesday was the upcoming ECB decision due in just over one week's time. Coming into the day, ECB President Draghi was expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. Reuters carried a story over the session citing ECB sources as saying that no new ECB action is likely at this meeting. But then they indicated that the flash August EZ CPI report on Friday could be decisive.

Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday

london red 18:46 GMT August 27, 2014
French Unemployment

cad gdp on friday, some estimates well abv consensus, but strength is now well in price. next wednesday expect poloz to pour cold water on any good news. this guy would find a problem with holding the winning ticket of the worlds biggest lottery.

Mtl JP 18:28 GMT August 27, 2014
French Unemployment



PAR to put numbers on it
- 3.424 million people out of work
- an increase of +/-26,000 folk
- ninth consecutive rise in the monthly unemployment number
-----------------------
usdcad currently under 200 day 1.0889 and range breakout

PAR 18:12 GMT August 27, 2014
French Unemployment
Reply   
French unemployment hits new record high in july .

london red 17:56 GMT August 27, 2014
morning obs

loonie pierces 38.2 fib at 10853, risk is now towards 1.0809 the 50% fib. at that point short term oversold. i will be looking at 1.08 calls at that level, expiry for end next week.
spot longs will start below 1.08 with stops under 10764 the 61.8%

GVI Forex john 17:39 GMT August 27, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY

Correlation trade has been working off and on since my earlier comments.Nevertheless the two are stil inline with one another. My focus earlier was S&P 2000. Thats where we still are! Making for a very long day!

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

5-yr 1.646%
bid-to-cover
2.81 vs.2.81
so-so

PAR 16:55 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Tax inversion deals propelling S&P to new alltime highs .
If all US companies choose headquarters outside USA wouldnt that be fantastic for the markets ?

GVI Forex john 16:47 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

5-yr auction shortly last cash 1.632%.

New York GTA 16:42 GMT August 27, 2014
Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Classic Pivot Points
Reply   

At the end of trading each day (NY close at 16:00 local time), Global-View updates its FX database and based on that price data it computes the day’s pivot point for the next session. The Pivot point is the average of the day's high, low and close). Very simple! 

Using a classic pivot point trading system, the pivot point is the primary support/resistance for the next trading period...

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading: Classic Pivot Points

PAR 16:24 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Yellen rolled put protection from s&p 1900 to s&p 2000.

nw kw 16:18 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Forex john thanks for keeping us up whith things that mater good job well ap ited $$$$$$$$$$$

nw kw 16:16 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Stock markets fall and bond yields rise after China enters bear market territory - as it happened

fast search// kids on the run

PAR 16:15 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Risk ? What risk ? Peace in Russia & Ukraine .

Party animals Yellen & Draghi going extreme on the latest gin tonic cocktails .

Lets party

nw kw 16:13 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

whut about eur/chf ????????????will chf intervene so we get soft chf and how fast last time bigger trends ran monthly///////////////feed back and a trade plan interesting round 2 so wee must no some direction/trade on GB. tks for sharing

GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

Any Word on why gilt yields have fallen by 8bp today?

sd sf 15:46 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

GBP

my system putting bids 56 58 59 target 1.6618/19

hard to be really confident as the crosses are going to get beaten about tomorrow due to some further eur/xxx adjustments.

Trading Perspectives john 15:46 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off


Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets are ending in a  RISK-OFF posture with bond yields falling heading into the ECB meeting in a week's.time. Before that flash August CPI data on Friday could be decisive. I find the continued ECB foot-dragging to be an ongoing disappointment.  EURUSD.is holding below the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on a dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.91%  -4bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.37%  -8bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.37%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. shares are roughly steady..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


SaaR KaL 15:34 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

gold might act funny
into next day
Close today
1,302.7823 1,280.1299

I think that 1300 level is a sell level
Might drop fast into 1290 1250 28th USA close

SaaR KaL 15:29 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

gbpchf close PI
1.5255 1.5151

GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off

10-yr 2.371% unchanged from earlier.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:21 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB

JP, one characteristic of the EURUSD downtrend is that it never corrects as far as you would expect.

SaaR KaL 15:19 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPJPY Close PI
172.6044 171.2130

SaaR KaL 15:14 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

eurjpy
Close range
137.1102 136.2818
I just shorted

SaaR KaL 15:07 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD
PI CLose for today
1.3214 1.3117

cable's
1.6639 1.6519

dc CB 15:06 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

Stox Up on POMO just done.
$1.031 bil

Mtl JP 14:54 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB

Res 3 1.3256
Res 2 1.3235
Res 1 1.3206

Pivot 1.3185

Sup 1 1.3156
Sup 2 1.3135
Sup 3 1.3106
-
Res 2 = practical gap close
would settle the issue in my book

SaaR KaL 14:50 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD SHorts with 6 pip spikes
tgt 1.3080

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:47 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB

The ECB plan was to wait for the TLTRO (first settlement is Sept 18) before considering additional measures. Market got QE in its head for this meeting so its seems by the price action.

In any case, 1.32 just printed for 3rd day in a row.

My warning about Wednesday often being a correction day may be playing out (see my Trade of the Day).

Mtl JP 14:43 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB

with a little increase in volume ... and presto: 3221 or 3244

SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
EURUSD I'll short
1.3214 1.3060
1.3232 1.3056

cable as well
1.66951 1.64245
1.66471 1.64042

SaaR KaL 14:36 GMT August 27, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
EURUSD I'll short
1.3214 1.3060
1.3232 1.3056

cable as well
1.66951 1.64245
1.66471 1.64042

london red 14:35 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB

imo zero chance of starting qe next week. as for rate cuts,, it wont do anything but raise yields and euro as they will need more wati and see time, which puts qe back even further. so thats a non starter.
they can however use the meeting to entertain the idea of qe and provide more information, as a precursor for announcing concrete plans next time. which would be enough for the market to run further as far as bunds and euro are concerned.
fridays inflation will be important as i dont believe they will want to wait for a negative print before approaching with qe to the market. if germany meets or beats tomorrow, then it probably holds up cpi enough and they are probably out of the woods for a couple of months, but if not and we get a 0.1/0.2 on friday then youd suggest a strong possibilty of qe discussion in a more formal way. if 0.3 then it puts a floor in since the bar is so low and JP gets his gap done by the end of friday trade. anymore than that would require a 0.4.

GVI Forex john 14:35 GMT August 27, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -2.070 vs. -1.750 exp vs. -4.470 prev.
Gasoline: -0.960 vs. -1.625 exp vs. +0.590 prev.
Distillates: +1.250 vs. -0.750 exp vs. -0.960 prev.
Cap/Util: 93.50% vs. 92.90% exp vs. 93.40% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:22 GMT August 27, 2014
ECB
Reply   
There is a press report that "NEW ECB ACTION NEXT WEEK UNLIKELY, BUT OUTCOME MUCH DEPENDS ON AUGUST INFLATION DATA" on Friday, according to unnamed ECB sources.

Sounds to me like the ECB is trying to tamp down expectations? EURUSD higher. This headline also raises the question of what level of inflation on Friday would be a trigger.

london red 14:20 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

fyi JP, end of week options pricing in a move of c. 50/60 points in euro.

london red 14:18 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

almost entirely, daily and hourly gaps tend to get done within the week they occured, particularly if its a weekend event. 1 or 2 in every hundred dont get done within the week. very similar to retracement theory in fact. they tend to be triggered on large market shifting data/events, which significantly alter market thinking and dont generate enough two way trade to warrant a gap close.
weekly gaps operate in the same manner but they feel different to us give the scope and reach of weekly trading bars and the time involved. it can take sometimes upto 30 trading bars for a gap to be filled. when talking weeks or months, it makes it difficult to trade. the shorter the timeframe, the more likely a gap will get filled.

GVI Forex Blog 14:02 GMT August 27, 2014 Reply   
August 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for August 28, 2014

Mtl JP 14:02 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

eurdlr close 1.3244 is from GVI Forex Database: Free Forex Historical Data for aug 22

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT August 27, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


August 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, August 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, GB- CBI Distributive Trades
  • North America: CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales, Natural Gas, 7-yr


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:58 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

JP, so you use the gap from Friday's close?

And if gap is not filled? Then what?

I use the gap to Friday's low (1.3221)

london red 13:55 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

JP, bar pullbacks, which we've just had abv 80, you cant see it any other way. looking at growth, the uk beats eurozone hands down. even inflation, while subdued in the uk, is at much higher levels than in the eurozone, which could print negative in the coming months. Poland already has deflation and the fruit and veg that cant be sold to russia is going to go across the other borders in euroland, driving food lower still. so subzero inflation is a risk. germany is up tomorrow, no risk there but still likely v low.

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

Jay eurdlr 1.3244 print is an eventual certainty.
a rare event in FX

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

If EURUSD cannot get back above 1.32, gap stays unfilled and risk stays down - currently the magic "50" level (1.3150) blocks the downside

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning



red 12:55 - do u think - like I do - that the euro will out-sink the gbp for some time still ?

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

I have stopped counting the number of times Draghi has variously predicted that
“Econ to recover very gradually in course of next year" or “Euro-area economic activity should stabilize and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace”
-
Bottom Line
- probably more profitable to trade GV's Pivots than some "Chatter ECB will cut rates"

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT August 27, 2014
Agree or Disagree? USDJPY
Reply   
Suddenly the S&P and USDJPY correlation has kicked in again. The two have been trading hand-in-glove today. Focus seems to be on whether S&P 2000 will prove to be a ceiling or a floor. USDJPY has to wait for U.S. share markets to decide.

I have never bought the argument that price moves in low volume markets don't matter. Rarely have I seen a post-low volume price move suddenly correct when everyone returns.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:16 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

See below for my Trade of the day video update on GVI Forex. Send me an EMAIL if you would like access to my daily video updates.

Forex Trade of the Day


EURUSD levels are clear, gap still us filled, Note Wed is often a correction day but only 1.32+ would put the gap in play

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

Chatter ECB will cut rates 10bp across the board next Thursday. I don't see what that would accomplish beyond its psychological impact?

london red 12:55 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

nh some interesting points. re aussie, watching 50/55 day for a sign of higher prices, looking to sell c. 94 cents for move to 9280/9230. theres a risk to 9520 out there before lower so likely to use option strat.
bunds are clearly running on draghi fuel and as you suggest, may be getting ahead of themselves if he doesnt come to the table next week. US 10 year futures look like they have another 20-30 points max before making another mini reversal. that would put them at my (or JP's!) red line once more.

nw kw 12:44 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

I see tks

london red 12:26 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

i have 05, the 10 day at 13, 200 hour at 18, 30 (23.6 of 148/172), 42 200 month. if thru 50 youll get a lot of momentum short covering, unhampered probably up to 75/80 where folk will start selling ahead of a really big pack of res from 90 to the fig.

Livingston nh 12:19 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

1. Yields in EU continue to confound -- what is the expected purpose of ECB QE?? Lower rates ?? LTRO as a cure for what -- the rates would exceed anything the bank could earn on the borrowed funds?? // maybe EUR rally after ECB measures fail to appear or fall short of rational expectation // SNB may be getting nervous below EUR/CHF 50

2. Sterling "strength" has been blamed by UK companies for performance problems (e.g., WPP) - EUR/GBP keeps pressure on BoE w/ only a narrow window for hikes // if market pushes rate hike expectations out beyond May that would cure "strength" pretty quick

3. Last but not least AUD/USD back up near wkly 21/55 MAs - 94.55 is 89 ema so between here and there might be a long term sell point

nw kw 11:50 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

6623

nw kw 11:49 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

red- wares ferst stall g/b r

Cape May jb 11:48 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System

EURUSD pivot support #1 (1.3156) already tested 1.3153 low. I would not put 1.3156 aside yet as possible support. 1.3185 pivot a focus.

nw kw 11:44 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

cot shod be adding longs now must have momentum wee see tks e/g helping he he

london red 11:38 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

gbp/jpy not following but cable 16605/10 historical important. if 200 hour cannot cap then they move towards 16690/167. well worth a short or 1/2 week put there.

Trading Perspectives 11:36 GMT August 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Reply   
Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data.. Basis previous session ranges...



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


nw kw 11:32 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

red -you up

nw kw 11:23 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

4h chart

nw kw 11:22 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

still adding do you see a retrace

nw kw 11:20 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

175. gives it room for 182

nw kw 11:19 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

swing up???????????????

nw kw 11:18 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

do have up swill gbp/jpy in for a spike

PAR 11:12 GMT August 27, 2014
Draghi s Dolce Vita
Reply   
Draghi's summertime party continues. Draghi will buy anything at any price . More limoncello please .

Mtl JP 10:59 GMT August 27, 2014
Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and caldron bubble

Ukraine's PM says Russia plans to block gas flows to Europe

Aug 27, 2014 (Reuters) - Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Wednesday that Kiev knew of plans by Russia to halt gas flows this winter to Europe, in comments which are likely to escalate the standoff between Moscow and the West. ../.

Trading Perspectives j 10:38 GMT August 27, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view.
EUR broadly mixed, suggesting this is not a EUR market at the moment. That can change. Note especially that EURCAD and EURNZD are sharply higher. EURUSD higher but below 1.3200.




sd sf 10:31 GMT August 27, 2014
Morning

GBP - just seeing selling to t/p @82-83

bots just trading the indicators.

New York GTA 10:31 GMT August 27, 2014
Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops



I get asked a lot for suggestions about specific brokers and which broker to choose. Some brokers I never heard of and it got me to thinking about the different tiers of forex brokers. It also got me to thinking about the term forex “bucket shop.” This generally refers to a broker who “buckets” all or most of its trades and takes them on its own books without going to the market (it may pass through the trades of profitable traders only). In other words, it is betting on the statistics that most retail forex traders lose money and thus is willing to take the other side of most trades. The question is why should you care?

Trader Alert: Beware of Forex Bucket Shops

GVI Forex Blog 10:14 GMT August 27, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD consolidated its recent gains despite some economic misses out of the EMU data front today. The EUR/USD was trying to regain some posture above the 1.32 handle. The pair hit a fresh 11-month ow in Asia at 1.3152. Some Euro short-covering was encountered after reports that Germany Fin Min Schaeuble believed that ECBs' Draghi's comments at Jackson Hole on growth austerity debate might have been 'over interpreted'. Overall dealers continue to believe that Euro upside would be curtailed given the weakness in data.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European confidence data looking shaky in session as numerous countries miss expectations

Cape May jb 10:13 GMT August 27, 2014
morning obs

I've always wondered about the mechanics of cross-border take-overs. There is no way money will be transferred until the transaction has been approved by all parties, including government authorities. On the other hand, at some point a price has to be fixed, and that includes the exchange rate. That could be done early on via forward contracts, which would not involve a transfer of funds, but would immediately impact the forex markets.

Whether they hedge or not, either way the parties are taking a significant exchange risk depending on whether the deal goes though or not. Keep in mind, these days a lot of deals ultimately don't happen.

Anyone have thoughts?

london red 09:33 GMT August 27, 2014
morning obs

i heard that mentioned too, but in regards to it being a bit early down the road to be a factor, although its a headwind all the same. im hearing more month end and long weekend profit take.
200 day looks at risk as if we see some dollar sales in the major then you fancy loonie wont stay where it is. thing risk to 10840-60 possible, but think longs down there with stops under 1.08 should work for 1.10 in sept.

UK CT 09:25 GMT August 27, 2014
morning obs

Is 11.5bn Burger King takeover of Tim Horten why USDCAD is lower

GVI Forex Blog 09:11 GMT August 27, 2014
Markets Setting Up for More ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Scant Data Due Today
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- 5-yr Auction

The only key event Wednesday is the 5-yr auction. Major data follow later in the month. A key focus of trade otherwise is the upcoming ECB decision in just over one week's time where ECB President Draghi is expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. We heard (unconfirmed) of reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. This is possible. .

Markets Setting Up for More ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Scant Data Due Today

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:03 GMT August 27, 2014
AceTrader Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

27 Aug 2014 08:43GMT

GBP/USD -..... Despite a marginal breach of yesterday's low at 1.6539 to 1.6537 at Asian open, lack of follow-through selling triggered short-covering n the British pound rose to 1.6575 in early European morning. However, renewed selling emerged there n pressured the pair lower to 1.6554. Further choppy trading is likely to be seen ahead of NY open due partly to the absence of eco. data releases from UK.

Offers have now been raised to 1.6590/00 n more abv at 1.6610/15 with stops building up abv there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.6520/30.

This morning trading cable was tricky on Tue as despite an initial rebound from 1.6566 to 1.6595 in Asia, renewed broad-based strength in greenback capped intra-day gain n the pound later fell in tandem with euro to 1.6540 near NY close. Price briefly weakened to 1.6537 shortly after Asian open on renewed decline in eur/usd, however, bids abv Mon's fresh 4-1/2 month low at 1.6535 lifted price.

Bids are noted at 1.6540-35 with stop below 1.6530 but demand from real money accounts are touted near 1.6500/05. On the upside, offers are located at 1.6560/70 n more at 1.6590/00 with stop reported abv 1.6620, therefore, selling cable on intra-day recovery is the way to go. No U.K. data are due out today, so the pound shud track intra-day move in eur/usd.

GVI Forex john 08:57 GMT August 27, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply   

Current Market Conditions:
Early in Europe markets are in a mixed  RISK posture again with equities up and bond yields lower..Additional ECB ease at its meeting in just over one week's time is already being priced in.  EURUSD.is holding below the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on the dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.92%  -3bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.43%  -2bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.37%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are slightly lower. U.S. shares are up..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


PAR 08:47 GMT August 27, 2014
European Markets

German government bond yields are now negative out to 3 years

PAR 08:22 GMT August 27, 2014
European Markets
Reply   
European markets moving higher on Ukraine peace prospects and expectations of more spectacular actions by Super Mario next week .

london red 07:17 GMT August 27, 2014
morning obs
Reply   
cad has pierced 23.6% at 10908 and now targets the 200 day ma at 10885. cable fails to break 16537 fib convincingly a second time and 16605 remains in play. some reasonable volume on london open came with this morning spike higher.
finally it seems we are getting some profit taking, whether its month end or pre long weekend i dont know, but it shouldnt mean the dollar run is over medium term.

PAR 06:57 GMT August 27, 2014
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

Better than to use QE to finance stock buy backs and taxs inversion deals benefitting bankers and the 1% .

sd sf 06:12 GMT August 27, 2014
Ukraine

Putin says they should be negotiating with the Separatists and not Russia.

PAR 06:06 GMT August 27, 2014
Hollande
Reply   
Not certain new French government has a majoity in the parlement .

PAR 05:45 GMT August 27, 2014
Ukraine
Reply   
Russia and Ukraine closer to peace deal after meeting between Putin and Poroshenko .

GVI Forex Blog 04:25 GMT August 27, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -1.2% V -0.5%E (largest decline in 5 quarters) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JULY FOOD PRICES M/M: -0.7% V +1.4% PRIOR (first decline in 4 months) - (KR) SOUTH KORE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Fonterra reaches partnership in China; Putin, Poroshenko commit to political process - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:39 GMT August 27, 2014 Reply   
The rally ignited by Draghi goes on and some solid US

Morning Briefing : 27-Aug-2014 -0339 GMT

Syd 03:18 GMT August 27, 2014
DJ Overvalued Australian Dollar May Be Risk to Living Standards -- Market Talk
Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia's desire for a lower Australian dollar is not surprising, says Su-Lin Ong, Head of Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Australia. "The alternative hints at lower national income and living standards," she adds. Lost external competitiveness resulting from the high currency, which is 20% above its long term average, means wages must fall to compensate, she said. The environment supports Ong's expectation of falling national income, sub par consumption, and a lower-for-longer central bank narrative regarding interest rates. The risk is that rigidities in the labor market prevent meaningful competitiveness gains, pushing the unemployment rate higher, she added. "That would keep the RBA in play," Ong said.

Syd 03:17 GMT August 27, 2014
DJ Downside Risk to Australian 2Q GDP Forecast -- Market Talk
Reply   
1.2% fall in the value of Australian construction work done in the second quarter compared with the first has put a dent in expectations for GDP growth forecasts. Adam Boyton, chief economist at Deutsche Bank said there are now downside risks to his call for GDP growth of just 0.5% in the quarter, to be reported in a week's time. The main downside concern was a big fall in private engineering construction, where Boyton had expected a gain.

Syd 03:16 GMT August 27, 2014
A note on Chinese real estate concerns – Aussie seems the play on the FX side
Reply   
I’ve written here before (and maybe it is a bit of hyperbole on my part) saying Australia has become a
satellite country of China, from an economic perspective. Maybe that isn’t true, but there still seems
plenty of fallout left for the Australian economy whose massive build in mining capacity coincided
nicely with the boom in Chinese real estate.

link

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:12 GMT August 27, 2014
AceTrader Aug 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD

27 Aug 2014 01:55GMT
EUR/USD - .... The single currency continues its recent losing streak and easily penetrated o/n NY low at 1.3164 to a fresh near 1-year trough of 1.315q after tripping stops below said yesterday low, however, bids above rumoured 1.3150 option barrier contained intra-day weakness.

We may well see a repeat of the price action seen in last 2 days in Asia, that is euro hits intra-day lows at Asian open n then stages a decent recovery into European open b4 coming off later in the day, so chasing present decline is not a good bet. Bids are noted at 1.3150 n more above daily sup at 1.3105, on the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3175/80 n more above would stop (fairly large) touted above 1.3220, suggesting selling the single currency on rally is the way to go.

Eco. data from the EZ today which may move price are Germany Gfk consumer confidence index at 06:00GMT, then French bus. confidence at 06:45GMT and then Italy's consumer confidence at 08:00GMT. No data are due out from the U.S. today.

News from last night, Russia's Utair airline said its MI-8 helicopter was shot down in South Sudan, according to preliminary information.
Three regional Federal Reserve banks, Philadelphia, Kansas city, Dallas Federal Reserve banks renewed requests to raise discount rate by 25 basis points to 1% ahead of July FOMC meeting, according to minutes on Tuesday. U.S. dollar rose broadly against major currencies in late New York.
U.S. welcomes Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, urges parties to fully and completely comply with its terms and hopes it will be durable.


Wednesday will see the release of Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, France's business climate and Italy's consumer confidence. Investors are waiting for eurozone inflation data on Friday.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:30 GMT August 27, 2014
The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium



This is my latest article and a timely one as it explains fx price action and should help you put it in perspective.

The Neverending Search for Forex Equilibrium

GVI Forex Blog 01:27 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index hits 13-month highs, breaks above Sept 5 peak

* Upbeat U.S. data in contrast to dour euro zone outlook

* Euro struggles as markets see more ECB easing

FOREX-Dollar flies high as euro struggles on ECB easing expectations

sd sf 01:15 GMT August 27, 2014
Change
Reply   
something else on the day in Asia that is different from the last week.

everyday NZD has had its high around 9 am Sydney and sold off 40-50 points per day.

today around that time the low was put in around that 28 level and ever since it has climbed higher.

not sure what that means for the other markets - but I just point it out as being a change in pattern.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:11 GMT August 27, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

Send me an EMAIL if you want a copy of my Trade of the Day video update for Wednesday

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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