GVI Forex john 16:15 GMT September 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Market Conditions:
Holidays in Canada and the U.S., kept trading at a low level after the
near universal release of Mfg PMI
data. Generally the data were disappointing. Markets are
in a mixed RISK posture. This week features an ECB meeting and U.S.
jobs data.The EURUSD is opening the week steady.
- A
key focus this week isl the upcoming ECB decision next
Thursday.There have been
reports that that
no new ECB action is
likely. Some U.S. markets close early today
- EZ flash August HICP data came in line with expectations
but might
not have been soft enough to force immediate easing action from the ECB
this Thursday.
- July German Retail
Sales were yet another disappointment for the dominant economy in the
Eurozone coming in once again weaker than expected.
- Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic
Calendar and the Forex Forum
for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.)
as they are released.
Livingston nh 13:48 GMT September 1, 2014
September
Reply
This week may set the tone for the EUR for this month - more sanctions against Russia will probably result in a gas shortage this winter (or worse) - ECB unlikely to make any move despite economic slowing - NATO meeting may be a bit more contentious than usual (spending debate?)
GVI Forex Blog 10:49 GMT September 1, 2014
Reply
September 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting, US- Mfg PMI's, , CA- Mfg PMI
GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 2, 2014
GVI Forex john 10:30 GMT September 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply
September 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 2.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting, US- Mfg PMI's, , CA- Mfg PMI
- Far East: AU- Reserve Bank Meeting
- Europe: EZ- PPI
- North America: US- Mfg PMI's, Construction Spending, CA- Mfg PMI
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:14 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
Monday 1 September 2014
Market focus will primarily be on political developments and key events later in the week including the ECB meeting and US August payrolls. However, today sees data releases that are also of interest. In particular PMI data will give an indication of the strength of manufacturing in August. The “flash” PMI for the euro area was lower than July but remained above 50, suggesting that activity continued to rise. The final estimate is not expected to be significantly different. However, new data for the more peripheral economies will provide detail on the extent to which activity varied across the euro area.
The UK July manufacturing PMI posted its sharpest monthly decline in seventeen months. After a very strong first half, we doubt manufacturing growth will be sustained at quite the same pace in H2. However, the scale of the July drop is at odds with other indicators such as the CBI Industrial Trends total orders balance. This points to at least a modest recovery in the PMI in August.
UK mortgage approvals rose in June to 67.2k from 62.0k previously. This brought an end to the series of declines seen since the start of the year. However, BBA figures showed that approvals fell back again in July. While movements in BoE and BBA approvals do not always match, the BBA data cover nearly 70% of the BoE sample, so there will generally be a close correlation. Consequently, we expect BoE approvals to have also dropped and forecast a reading of 66.0K for August. While some of the weakness may be due to the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review earlier this year, the softness of the latest RICS survey suggests that underlying housing market activity may be cooling, especially
Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook
nw kw 10:11 GMT September 1, 2014
EUR Heat Map
NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q)
Low
0.3% -3.5% 1.8%
GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT September 1, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. Mixed picture for EUR. Notable moves are its gain vs. JPY and loss vs. the kiwi. EURUSD steady.
nw kw 10:08 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
UK construction has big rail over hall but they started to bicker its to brake even in 10years ap. and there isn't enough housing for long time and wages will always be unbalanced
nw kw 10:01 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
chinas pull back is blamed on bank lending //is this the same for gbp or eur,i no war is part of it or is it all from the fitting if so gbp can retrace
london red 09:56 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
take your point on pmis. i wouldnt say manf itself doesnt matter, because its still a big employer, but it makes up a v small part of gdp and given it is vulnerable to external factors, its probably a better indicator of whats going on in manf elsewhere eg. europe.
the construction pmi was a key early driver so will be keenly watched and i suspect a miss there will have greater effect on gbp. servs on wed is of course the biggie. i am still crunching for tomorrows construction, but cant see myself being at or abv consensus at the minute.
GVI Forex john 09:46 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
Red- yes. all valid points. I like the Manufacturing PMIs because they are much more sensitive to changes in business cycles. They are in a sense for me canaries in the coal mine.
Of course there is the question of whether the various PMIs have any predictive validity at all? For me the jury is still out on that question.
GVI Forex john 09:40 GMT September 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Risk On/Off
Reply
Current
Market Conditions:
Today sees holidays in Canada and the U.S., but it is universal PMI
data elsewhere. Generally the data have been disappointing. markets are
in a mixed RISK posture. This week features an ECB meeting and U.S.
jobs data.The EURUSD is opening the week steady.
- Yields
in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mixed. The
10-yr
bund is 0.883% -0.4bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
- The U.K. 10-yr gilt yield
is
2.370% +1.0bp. I see a +25bp BOE
rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.343%, +0.0bp.. The
psychological pivot is 2.40%.
- Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in
Europe are mixed. U.S. share markets are closed.
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
london red 09:38 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
servs makes up 78% of gdp. manf and constn are less imp components, with constrn more insulated from external factors.
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT September 1, 2014
AceTrader Sept 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views EUR/USD
01 Sep 2014 07:55GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Germany manufacturing grows at its slowest rate in 11 mths. The PMI figure came in weaker-than-expected at 51.4 vs forecast of 52.0.
Italy manufacturing slips back into contraction in August with the PMI read coming in at 49.8, lower than expectation of 50.8.
Euro pares intra-day losses in early European trading after hitting a fresh near 1-year low of 1.3119. Although range trading is seen ahead of release of a slew of EZ eco. data, offers at 1.3140/50 are likely to check present rebound. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is reported at 1.3105/00, therefore, steep fall may is unlikely be seen n trading may quieten down after European midday as markets in U.S. & Canada are closed for Labor Day holiday today.
News from Reuters, Ukraine President Poroshenko said, 'events of past few dats show that Russia has launched a direct and open aggression against Ukraine, will forsee high-level personnel changes in armed forces after events in Ukraine last week.'
Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov said, 'Ukrainian troops must leave positions from which they can fire on civilian targets, and expects contact group talks in Minsk today to address task of agreeing to immediate ceasefire without conditions. There will be no military intervention in Ukraine from Russia and Russia will defend its economy, citizens, business in response to sanctions.'
German statistics office showed that Geman Q2 final GDP confirmed at -0.2% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y.
The single currency showed muted reaction to the data n traded near intra-day fresh near 1-year trough at 1.3119. Bids are noted at 1.3110-00 n around 1.3080-70, whilst offers are placed at 1.3130-40 n then 1.3150/55 with stops emerging just abv 1.3170.
nw kw 09:25 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
(servs is the main gdp driver//is it most dependent on north sea or construction //tks for fib at .7930
GVI Forex john 09:12 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 EZ- Final MFG PMI
EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Mixed flash revisions, but gloomy pattern overall. ECB Thursday.
london red 09:09 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Manufacturing PMI
cable. they were looking to buy dips before the miss and tbh didnt fall that far on a pretty big august miss and downwards revision for july (servs is the main gdp driver). proof will come at 6605 and the 10 day 6585. the latter must hold to have any chance of 200 day ma at 6690. eurgbp big fib at 7936 poss point of reversal but its some way off.
London London 08:57 GMT September 1, 2014
New signal
Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.31397 Target: 1.31 Stop: 1.31955
The dollar is starting the day higher against most other currencies as the market focused on the prospects for an improving US economy. Friday’s data showed that personal income rose less than expected and personal spending dropped unexpectedly in July, but the market preferred to focus on the jump in the Chicago PMI and the surge in consumer confidence, which reinforced the bull case for the dollar. The rising tensions in Ukraine are also helping the US currency, as the likely impact on the Eurozone economy of further sanctions on Russia can no longer be ignored. As a result, it is opening higher than its early Frida levels against all the G10 currencies except NZD. Among the EM currencies, the dollar was little changed on average. It gained against the Eastern European currencies, particularly RUB, as the Ukrainian situation worsened, but fell vs BRL.
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SaaR KaL 08:44 GMT September 1, 2014
Day's Trades
GBPCHF...easily could slip into 1.50 area
GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Australia PMI
The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) slipped back into negative territory in August, following a short-lived stabilisation in July. The index decreased by 3.4 points to 47.3, indicating a mild contraction in activity across the sector (readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity).
Amman wfakhoury 08:04 GMT September 1, 2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed reminder
1.6636 reached again ..after it declined to 16500 area . it took 10 days to reach target in slow market motion.
nw kw 07:57 GMT September 1, 2014
August 2014 Australia PMI
AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG)
Medium
47.3 50.7
is this right
Amman wfakhoury 07:56 GMT September 1, 2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed reminder
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 17:55 GMT August 20, 2014
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed : Reply
GBPUSD 16679 confirmed will be reached return level 16636
any decline below it will return to it.
SaaR KaL 07:52 GMT September 1, 2014
Day's Trades
Just depends on what type of trader you are
using offsets from any close to place orders to avg
is very comfortable and systematic
My offsets are based on RMS (Root Mean Squared) Error
any close + / - the offset as a limit order will be fine
Pair TGT Date Trend Offset
EURUSD 12/1/2014 Long 0.0622
EURUSD 9/12/2014 Hold 0.0146
EURUSD 9/5/2014 Short 0.0097
GBPUSD 12/1/2014 Long 0.0784
GBPUSD 9/12/2014 Short 0.0248
GBPUSD 9/5/2014 Short 0.0122
USDCAD 9/5/2014 Long 0.0138
nw kw 07:47 GMT September 1, 2014
Day's Trades
gbp/nzd day chart is trapped for brake out
SaaR KaL 07:37 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
1.6690 is nice Red
cause I am shorting from 1.6673 to 1.6734
might see 1.6240 area later in week
nw kw 07:37 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
might be flight from eur/gbp giving gbp strength see if it drops badly or it shod
london red 07:30 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
cable topside 6629 6677 6691/3 6722 6786 6810. 6810 is the very maximum i see it even if data beats strongly all week. but its not a base case. 200 day ma (6693)likely to top on a closing basis.
nw kw 07:26 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
hang seng defensive poss gbpaud back to 1.8//xaugbp indicating gbp strength for now or there's no fear in the pending print //gbp/jpy or g/n
Cape Town LV 07:17 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
Cable also now midway between R1 and R2 pivots. Will check for retest of R1 for possible Short
london red 06:57 GMT September 1, 2014
cable
Reply
76.4 fib at 16629, cable should sit around there until manf pmi later in the morning. external factors may lead to a miss there and test of 16605. further support from 10 day ma at 16585. below there, bears take hold for 16537 test.
Mtl JP 02:55 GMT September 1, 2014
Lobster trapping
That is the new cost of trying to dump US citizenship
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:25 GMT September 1, 2014
AceTrader Sept 1:Daily Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
Reply
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3129
Update Time: 01 Sep 2014 01:00 GMT
Euro's intra-day breach of last Friday's fresh near 1-year low at 1.3132 after ECB's Coeure's dovish comments on Reuters Saturaday signals mid-term downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has resumed and further weakness to daily objective at 1.3105 and then 1.3060/70 would be seen before correction occurs due to 'loss of momentum'.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.3160 would indicate a temporarty low has been made and risk retracement towards 1.3196 but last week top at 1.3221 should remain intact.
GVI Forex 01:52 GMT September 1, 2014
China PMI
MNI: CHINA HSBC AUGUST FINAL PMI 50.2 VS JULY 51.7; FLASH 50.3
GVI Forex 01:25 GMT September 1, 2014
China PMI
Reply
MNI: CHINA CFLP AUGUST PMI 51.1 VS MNI MEDIAN 51.2; JULY 51.7
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