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Forex Forum Archive for 09/22/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd 22:48 GMT September 22, 2014
Faber: Bubbles everywhere
Reply   



Marc Faber, "Gloom, Boom & Doom" publisher, warns there will be a problem if asset markets begin to perform poorly when rates begin to rise.

Marc Faber, "Gloom, Boom & Doom" publisher,

GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT September 22, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


September 22, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, September 23. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg And Service PMIs, CA- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt MFG PMI

  • Far East: CN- HsBC PMI
  • Europe: EZ/DE/FR- flash Mfg And Service PMIs
  • North America: CA- Retail Sales, US- flash Mkt MFG PMI, Richmond Fed


nw kw 21:36 GMT September 22, 2014
Morning

Dollar drops after Bank of Canada deputy says economy still needs stimulus

Canada's struggling economy still needs the extra boost of monetary stimulus to help keep the recovery on track, and it might take longer than expected to get there, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said Monday.

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/cbc-news/dollar-drops-after-bank-of-canada-deputy-says-economy-still-needs-stimulus-1

sd sf 21:18 GMT September 22, 2014
Morning
Reply   
OK - I switched my FX automated strategies on - after disabling over alot of them over the Referendum and FOMC.

Eur .. I saw them selling @60 and when price dropped under 20 they started buying to cover shorts.

now they have been offering @50 and looking to buy @30 and have some residual stops @66-67

GBP .. have been selling here @62/63 looking to buy the dip targeting 1.6420-30 ..as you can see the short term indicators are all o-bought which is why they are following that type of strategy.

YEN .. have been buying anything under 80 and selling when it gets above 109 .. this one is bit hard to read because things are shrinking range wise.

EURCAD -- saw buying of $cad @29 and buying of eurcad @68-72 - when it just shot up to 88 - they came in selling some out but the main target is 10-15 .. just above really.

overall despite negative sentiment towards the eur/usd there seems to be some short covering risk up to 70-75 at some point today.

from the AUD selling in the last 24 hours you would have thought they are expecting a bad Chinese Number today .. but I don't have anything in that myself.

GVI Forex john 21:03 GMT September 22, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
TUESDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI Economic sentiment survey
07:28 DE MFG &SVC PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG & SVC PMI  Economic sentiment survey
12:30 CA Retail Sales Consumer demand flat?
13:45  US Mfg MKt PMI flash Economic sentiment survey
WEDNESDAY
08:00 DE IFO Climate  Top indicator seen soft
14:00 US New Homes Sales  Housing stat seen better
17:00 TRY 5-yr  belly of the curve
THURSDAY
.00:30 JP CPI  seen steady
12:30 US Initial Claims  correction seen
12:30 US Dur Goods  correction expected
13:45 US Markit SVC PMI flash Economic Sentiment Survey
FRIDAY
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 Revised data
13:55 US U Mich final Economic Sentiment seen flay


GVI Forex john 20:51 GMT September 22, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System



Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 19:42 GMT September 22, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   



UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database.
High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:09 GMT September 22, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   

Pre-Closing...


dc CB 18:28 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Market

US Auctions tues,wed,thurs. 2,5,7 yr.
must drive money stock and PM crunch

Livingston nh 18:27 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Market

Dudley still playing the loyal supporting role - urging folks not to take the DOTS seriously and insisting there is no rush to move on rates // OK so now we have Dudley DOTS that are just spots in front of your eyes and Yellen explaining her concept of Considerable Time where the concept of time is irrelevant (i.e., NOISE)

Mtl JP 18:17 GMT September 22, 2014
FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs

you heard it thru the grapevine
I read it in GV's Econ Calendar:
23/09/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 50 50.2

"A" implies a potentially high degree of player reaction

GVI Forex john 17:49 GMT September 22, 2014
FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs

I heard earlier that the HSBC flash PMI overnight is a major focus for Far East trading.

GVI Forex john 17:46 GMT September 22, 2014
FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs

Fundamentals for Trading. NEW EXCLUSIVE CHART: Prior to PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths clear: USD, CA, then CNY and AUD. AUD is very much tied to export demand from China.



GVI Forex Blog 17:42 GMT September 22, 2014
RISK-OFF: Cautious Market Start For The Week. Active Calendar Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- fl Mfg & Service PMIs, CA- Retail Sales, US- fl Mkt MFG PMI

Tuesday sees a slew of flash PMI reports and Canadian Retail Sales. In comments to the EU Parliament, ECB President Draghi expressed his concerns that the risks to the Eurozone economy were on the downside. His comments should weigh on the downside of EURUSD.

RISK-OFF: Cautious Market Start For The Week. Active Calendar Tuesday

NY JM 16:55 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Market

Market is not sure what to do with this sudden flip to risk off... any suggestions?

GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT September 22, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System



Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


GVI Forex Blog 15:32 GMT September 22, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Worries about China were festering as the week began, with press articles circulating that Beijing may lower its 2015 growth targets and was unlikely to undertake any more major stimulus efforts. Small caps and momentum stocks are getting hit hard

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Global Sell-Off on China Jitters

GVI Forex john 15:24 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF

Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a RISK-OFF posture heading into th European close Equity traders have been taking profits as they remain cautious about the risk of a future Fed policy tightening. Comments by ECB President Draghi  have been exceptionally dovish. The  EURUSD is lower.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.027%, -1.2bp. Peripheral bond yields are steady.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.509% -3.1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.576%, -0.0.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed lower . Bourses in Europe are ending  down. U.S. shares are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


Mtl JP 15:22 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

nh lets see who is in whose den:
US urges EU to do more to stimulate its economy - FT
-
representing the indispensable US was Jacob Lew with his speech

Livingston nh 14:57 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

Draghi may be calling out the Germans - the French threw the Gauntlet last week and will be in Merkel's den this week

NY JM 14:42 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Market
Reply   
Coming back after being away for over a week it seems to me that there is a sense of caution chasing the dollar as it moves higher. But that seems to be the case at every pause as traders look at the COT data and see a market that appears to be heavily long USD.

So it has been waiting for the elusive retracement that never seems to go as far as one would expect. This has been especially true in the EURUSD, which initially led the USD higher and now we see others joining in the USD parade.

Currently, proximity of EURUSD 1.28 may be leading to some caution, Same for USDJPY 110. GBP getting the cross flows today as Scotland risk is off the table and focus is back on when, not if rates will be raised.

To sum up, we are in a data dependent trading world where diverging monetary policies are supporting the USD and GBP vs. currencies such as the EUR and JPY so fundamentals are supporting the technicals.

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT September 22, 2014
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) August 2014

Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Still roughly in line with lagged Pending Homes sales.

Mtl JP 14:02 GMT September 22, 2014
Central Banks Remain in Control: Outlook- September 21, 2014

Derby and Hilsenrath :
Fed Rate-Hike Tool Stirs Some Concern
-
Hils appears to be suggesting that the Fed gang is not overly concerned about potential volatility as nothing players wont be able to digest.

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT September 22, 2014
Consumer Confidence prelim September 2014
Reply   




ALERT
-11.4 vs. -11.0 vs. -10 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT September 22, 2014
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) August 2014
Reply   



ALERT
5.050 vs. 5.200 exp. vs. 5.150 (r 5.140)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF

10-yr 2.573%

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

I was surprised by Draghi's choice of words. He was more bearish on the EZ economy than I would have expected.

NY JM 13:24 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

Should be but not a surprise and market focus is not on the EUR today. Watch 1.2850 as it will set its tone. Note high for the day was just above the 1.2865 pivot so trading below it most of the day.

Mtl JP 13:19 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

yey and hooray for CB's in control !

GVI Forex john 13:16 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi

Comments SHOULD BE EUR bearish.

GVI Forex 13:15 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Mario Draghi
Reply   
Economic Recovery in Euro Area Losing Momentum and risks to econpmy claerly on the downsyde

Mtl JP 12:57 GMT September 22, 2014
euro



at 1.2850-ish
- euro COT short at monster levels
- still bearish sentiment but enthusiasm for massive run down looks tempered
- s/t resistance around 1.2920
- support at round number at 1.2800

PAR 12:47 GMT September 22, 2014
Chicago Fed Activity Index
Reply   
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic activity was below-trend in August, according to data released Monday. The Chicago Fed's national activity index fell to negative 0.21 in August from positive 0.26 in July, and the three-month averaged slowed to 0.07 from 0.2 in July. The biggest drag came from production-related indicators, as manufacturing production fell 0.4% and manufacturing capacity utilization declined in August, the Chicago Fed said. The index, which is a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, is designed so that negative values indicate below-average growth and positive values indicate above-average growth. Forty-two indicators improved from July to August, while 43 indicators deteriorated, the report said.

london red 12:44 GMT September 22, 2014
cable
Reply   
decending triangle of sorting basing at 16321 fib. below there 16277/80, a lot of support building tech wise and a good point to go long. a good trendline there and yet to be tested after referendum. have been looking for this to be touched before a better assault at higher levels. abv 6243/47 bias neutral. if abv 6255/56 then earlier high of day and then 16386 in sight.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:34 GMT September 22, 2014
euro

The crosses have given the EURO a breather and perhaps a defense of 1.28. Suggest reading the article below as this is a good example of following the path of least resistance.

NY Global Traders Association 12:26 GMT September 22, 2014
Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance
Reply   

I spent the past week hiking in the Rocky Mountains. I was standing on a small log foot bridge, around 10,000 feet above sea level, staring at a stream seeking its way around rocks. It reminded me of one of my 20 forex trading tips. Let me explain as it will help you to visualize how trends develop and how the forex market is constantly seeking the path of least resistance

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance

london red 12:18 GMT September 22, 2014
euro

yes jay its probably what given the euro a breather, eurcad and euraud. that and some quite big option buying with 12850 strikes.

london red 12:15 GMT September 22, 2014
euro

first touch 9th sept low john. im using 4h chart for that particular line. the second touch 17th sept low

GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT September 22, 2014
FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING: Relative PMIs
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: prior to PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths very clear: USD, GBP, EUR and JPY in that order. You can see why GBP and USD are strong, while EUR and JPY are weak I use Three month moving averages to smooth the monthly swings.

Note UK turing south while U.S. is accelerating to the upside.






GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:10 GMT September 22, 2014
euro



red, is this the trendline (red line at bottom of the chart) you noted?

By the way, weakness in commodity currencies keeping a lid on the USD elsewhere due to cross offsets.

GVI Forex john 12:00 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Draghi

You've got to be patient with economic stimulus programs they take a long time to work.

london red 11:56 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Draghi

just slight sign of bottoming hicp but it wont do any good to mention it as market will over react to upside. he can mention it at 1.20-1.25

Mtl JP 11:53 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Draghi

Is there anything that can make Draghi sound optimistic, excited or hawkish ?

New York GVI Calendar 11:11 GMT September 22, 2014
ECB's Draghi
Reply   
Monday, 22 September 2014
Board member: Mario Draghi
Event: Introductory statement by the President at the Quarterly Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
Time: 3 p.m. CET (13:00 GMT)

Text: The text will be made available on the ECB's website after delivery.

london red 11:05 GMT September 22, 2014
euro

9sept and 17sept low. late friday saw a minor false break on wide spreads/small volume, rejected. a second break highly likely to follow thru. so far now follow thru below prev low of 35. if abv 10 hour ma then new hod likely and inverse shs will at least be attempted if not completed as a lot can can from the start thru to the supposed planned end of a move.

NY JM 11:00 GMT September 22, 2014
euro

red, can you be more specific on where that trendline comes from?

london red 10:57 GMT September 22, 2014
euro
Reply   
prev low at 35, break here puts 12824 trendline in play. often its a point they flip for a rally. here a inverse shs could be in play. worth watching this pair close as will make its move soon.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:57 GMT September 22, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

My trade of the day worked out nicely with EURUSD having a limited upside and backing off ahead of Draghi although commodity currencies are the underperformers. If you missed it, see below for my video update

For Sept 22
Forex Trade of the Day

EURUSD downside stays at risk

GVI Forex Blog 10:50 GMT September 22, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Dollar came off its highs in the Asian session, weakness carried into early European morning. USD/CHF weakened slightly while the Swissie remained unchanged against euro. Sterling rose ahead of the open. Long term Treasuries rose on traders looking for a deal. AUD/USD headed to a multi-month low with nothing in sight to reverse its course, breaking 0.8900 level. Yen remained mixed through the session finding some strength in commodity currencies.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Core Bonds open higher ahead of Draghi testimony

GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT September 22, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Reply   


Latest Selected daily USD and EUR based Pivot Points. See Chart Point tables for complete data, basis previous session ranges. Spot and ranges at top of chart updated . For quick and easy reference, click on chart icon to store table in a tab at the top of most browsers.




Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 10:29 GMT September 22, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply   
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of 4iew. Positive bias for the EUR in a cautious start to the new week. EURUSD is steady.





Hong Kong AceTrader 09:40 GMT September 22, 2014
AceTrader Sept 22: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

22 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Despite cable's retreat after intra-day rebound from 1.6288 (Aust.) to 1.6365 in Asia morning, price found support at 1.6334 shortly after European open due to renewed cross-buying in sterling vs euro n yen.

Buying interest is seen at 1.6330-20 with demand fm various accounts noted at 1.6305/00. On the upside, Offers are noted at 1.6365/70 n then 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10.

Last Friday Cable swung wildly n to a lesser extent in today, Monday's trading.
Despite an initial rally to 1.6525 in Asia, price tumbled to as low as 1.6284 near NY close on long liquidation as investors locked in gains after more voters in Scotland's independence referendum elected to remain inside the United Kingdom. Price briefly rebounded to 1.6340 in Mon's NZ n then retreated to 1.6385 b4 climbing back to 1.6364 in Tokyo lunch session.

With the referendum issue out of the way, investors are turning their attention back towards the Bank of England's monetary policy stance n therefore, choppy range trading inside 1.6300-1.6400 is expected today.
Offers are noted at 1.6360-70 n around 1.6380 with mixture of offers n stops placed at 1.6400-10. On the downside, bids are located at 1.6285-80 with stops below there.

On Sunday, U.K. PM David Cameron's office said:
'Scotland will get more autonomy with no "ifs or buts"', after Scottish leader Alex Salmond accused him and other politicians of tricking Scots out of independence.
'It is the people who were persuaded to vote "No" who were misled, who were gulled, who were tricked effectively,' Salmond told BBC TV, saying he thought last-minute promises of greater powers and continued higher-than-average funding, which he said were already unravelling, had swayed the vote's outcome.
Cameron's office responded by saying the government would stick to its promises. Miliband, leader of the Labour party, said on Sun he disagreed with the proposals because he thought more time and consultation was needed to work out a solution to 'the English question' accusing his rival of playing politics.
He told BBC 'You know we've spent two years trying to keep our country together. Let's have a proper constitutional convention, let's look at these issues; Let's not drive our country apart because David Cameron thinks it's a sort of opportunity for him to do it.'

GVI Forex Blog 09:31 GMT September 22, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Existing Homes Sales

The upcoming week sees another active calendar. Monday features A Draghi Speech to the EU Parliament, U.S. Existing Homes Sales and Eurozone preliminary Consumer Confidence,. Tuesday sees a slew of flash PMI reports and Canadian Retail Sales.

RISK-OFF: Usual Cautious Monday Start To Trade For the Week

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT September 22, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Reply   
Market Conditions:
Markets have moved into a RISK-OFF posture to start the new week as dealers take profits followin the successful Alibaba IPO on Friday. Today sees ECB Presidet Draghi speak tto the EU Parliament in defense of its simulative economic policies. EURUSD is steady at a lower 1.2850 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 1.030%, -0.5.4bp. Peripheral bond yields are steady.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.519% -2.1bp. BOE Gov Carney has signaled a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.569%, -2.1.1bp.The Psychological focus is now 2.60%.
  • Far East equities closed lower . Bourses in Europe are down. U.S. share futures are weaker.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


SaaR KaL 09:22 GMT September 22, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Recommended Buys with dips
EUR/JPY
CHF/JPY
USD/JPY
GBPAUD
GBPNZD

london red 08:59 GMT September 22, 2014
long aud/usd scalp play

good move. 8850/60 should be a mother to break. dxy is stretched and 8850 break signifies major move lower probably a figure lower on day of break. can happen but not without a pullback first. looking to buy myself on test.

tokyo ginko 08:23 GMT September 22, 2014
long aud/usd scalp play
Reply   
long 8882

GVI Forex Blog 04:58 GMT September 22, 2014 Reply   
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 116.7 (1-year low; 2nd consecutive decline) V 121.2 PRIOR - (TW) TAIWAN AUG UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.9% V 3.9%E ***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***-

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Equities, commodities slide as China Fin Min sees limited policy response to slowdown - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT September 22, 2014 Reply   
Uptrend intact in almost all the indices but a bit of fatigue is visible with loss of gain

Morning Briefing : 22-Sep-2014 -0336 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:06 GMT September 22, 2014
AceTrader Sept 22: Daily Outlook on Major EUR/USD
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.2848

Update Time: 22 Sep 2014 00:54 GMT

Euro's sell off to a fresh 14-month trough of 1.2829 Friday and then marginally to 1.2826 in Australia today signals mid-term downtrend from May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 has once again resumed and further weakness to 1.2772 would be seen after consolidation.
However, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 1.2745 today and risk correction later.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.2831 (last Thursday's high) would abort daily bearishness and yield stronger gain to 1.2880/90.

NY JM 01:49 GMT September 22, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day

Typical Monday start when there are no stops to run ..,

Montreal Hesham 01:28 GMT September 22, 2014
Canada

Do you think that he is telling the truth?

Syd 01:15 GMT September 22, 2014
Russia pledges support to ISIS opponents, no plans to join US-led coalition
Reply   
Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urged all nations not to show political ambitions while fighting terrorism. Lavrov made this statement during the Paris conference

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urged all nations not to show political ambitions while fighting terrorism.

GVI Forex Blog 00:27 GMT September 22, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar hovers near 6-year high versus yen

* Currencies not high on G20 agenda, seen weighing on yen

* Euro brushes 14-month low against overall bullish dollar

FOREX-Dollar well bid on Fed outlook, no G20 reprieve for yen

 




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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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