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Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2015

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Mtl JP 22:35 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

dc CB 21:54 re Nat Gas sell off is extreme
for couple of weeks now I ve set my weather news filter for forecasts of snow, ice, bitter cold - so far to mediocre posi-result
Maybe more bux to be made off Pope Francis Calls for Action on Climate Change & Capitalism on a Planet "Exploited by Human Greed" ?

Mtl JP 22:23 GMT January 3, 2015
Greek euro exit would be ‘Lehman Brothers squared’: economist

Syd -

- Die Welt: Greeks withdrew €2.5 billion in December
- Germany believes euro zone could cope with Greece exit: report - rtrs
- Eurozone no longer obliged to rescue Greece, Merkel ally says
(Reuters) - Euro zone politicians are not obliged to rescue Greeceas the country is no longer of systemic importance to the single currency bloc, a senior member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party was quoted as saying.

In an interview with Rheinische Post newspaper published on Wednesday, Michael Fuchs also said Greek politicians could not now "blackmail" their partners in the currency bloc
- ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek leftwing opposition leader Alexis Tsipras said the European Central Bank (ECB) could not exclude Greece if it decides to move to a full "quantitative easing" programme to stimulate the euro zone's faltering economy.
- Speaking at a party congress on Saturday, three weeks before a Jan. 25 general election, Tsipras also said his Syriza party would ensure much of Greece's debt was written off as part of a renegotiation of its international bailout deal.* - rtrs Sat, Jan 3, 2015
I like the one (*) best, even more than the Greek's smarts who "withdrew €2.5 billion in December" and nevermind that on Monday Schaeuble warned Greece against straying from a path of economic reform, saying any new government in Athens would be held to the pledges made by the current government of premier Antonis Samaras.

Can u see German troops invade Athens and the ΤτΕ ?

dc CB 21:54 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

Mtl JP 19:40 GMT January 2, 2015 - My Profile
Week Ahead: Reply
Two 64 Thousand Dollar yes/no Questions :

1) will the FED hike rates this 2015 year
2) will the FED restart printing i.e. QE in 2015

1) No
2) Yes

as posted earlier

30Y Yield in 2015

ps: We got rain but Winter's comin'
Nat Gas sell off is extreme.


at $2 gasoline. I'll come look you up this year on a retun to the Jacques-Cartier

Syd 20:45 GMT January 3, 2015
Greek euro exit would be ‘Lehman Brothers squared’: economist
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A decision by a new Greek government to leave the eurozone would set off devastating turmoil in financial markets even worse than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, a leading international economist warned Saturday.

A Greek exit would likely spark runs on Greek banks and the country’s stock market and end with the imposition of severe capital controls, said Barry Eichengreen, an economic historian at the University of California at Berkeley. He spoke as part of a panel discussion on the euro crisis at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting.

The exit would also spill into other countries as investors speculate about which might be next to leave the currency union, he said.

“In the short run, it would be Lehman Brothers squared,” Eichengreen warned.

He predicted that European politicians would “swallow hard once again” and make the compromises necessary to keep Greece in the currency union.

“While holding the eurozone together will be costly and difficult and painful for the politicians, breaking it up will be even more costly and more difficult,” he said.

In general, the panel, consisting of four prominent American economists, was pessimistic about the outlook for the single-currency project.

Jeffrey Frankel, an economics professor at Harvard University, said that global investors “have piled back into” European markets over the last years as the crisis ebbed.

Now, there will likely be a repeat of the periods of market turmoil in the region and spreads between sovereign European bonds could widen sharply.

Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a Harvard professor, said the euro “is a historic disaster.”

“It doesn’t mean it is easy to break up,” he said.

Martin Feldstein, a longtime critic of the euro project, said all the attempts to return Europe to healthy growth have failed.

“I think there may be no way to end to euro crisis,” Feldstein said.

The options being discussed to stem the crisis, including launch of full scale quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, “are in my judgment not likely to be any more successful,” Feldstein said.

The best way to ensure the euro’s survival would be for each individual eurozone member state to enact its own tax policies to spur demand, including cutting the value-added tax for the next five years to increase consumer spending, Feldstein said.

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT January 3, 2015
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Mtl JP 19:22 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

dc CB the bigger nightmare than some acrimony between American Neo-Conservatives and radical islamists is the Flying Blind FED gang spouting bs mascarading as assurances about their ability to land the metaphorical plane.

Raising rates needs to cause a real recession and it needs to be a bloody slaughter that needs to occur.

Being on the right side is high odds you make out filthy rich .

GVI Forex 19:03 GMT January 3, 2015
Great Trade Call
GVI Forex john 12:11 GMT January 2, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems: Reply
EURUSD pivoting S2 att 1.2049 (LOD 1.2035)
fwiw S3 is exactly 1.2000 (it just worked out that way!)

through S3 would be a 5% odds trade. 1.2000 of course is an obvious level for option triggers and stop loss levels. Also there are always a lot of traders out there who would like to write the first ticket below a level such as 1.2000. Keep in mind that markets are thin, so they might not be hard to push.

dc CB 18:45 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

the vid is not about the Far East...just tagged on to the thread.

the Power of Nightmares is a 3 parter...can download from low res.

Archive P of N

Mtl JP 18:37 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

dc CB - respectfully suggest to forget Far East, there is a bigger pile of bull$h!t brewing closer to home:

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of
2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.".../.. -
IF things are as rosy as that the FED needs to embark on a sustained rate hiking campaign rather than be "patient". Otherwise my categorizing of the GDP is correct.

dc CB 18:11 GMT January 3, 2015
Brace for troubles in the Far East

worth a look it
5 min video.

and his two other full doc series...linked there, are worth a viewing
esp The Power of Nightmares.

BBC's Adam Curtis On The "Contradictory Vaudeville" Of Post-Modern Politics

NY JM 15:39 GMT January 3, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

I saw 1.1996 but that may have been on spread widening.

GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT January 3, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

EURUSD LOD I believe late Friday was 1.1992. Can anyone confirm? Looks like they snuck it in after trading was virtually closed for the day. I suppose if you had a stop-loss order below 1.2000 you traded!

We idicated early in the day hat 1.2000 was the clear target

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT January 3, 2015
Active Markets in Store for 2015 - January 4, 2015

Daily Ranges Widening
Forex markets typically are very responsive to economic imbalances, and in the final quarter of 2014, economic imbalances finally became overwhelming with the U,S. finally clearly recovering and the Eurozone and Japan heading into greater weakness. The roots of the U.S. recovery date back to 2008 when the U.S. (and U.K.) financial systems were forced to bite the bullet and take major write-downs. The Eurozone and Japan continued to protect their weakest institutions and continue gradually to take their losses.

Active Markets in Store for 2015 - January 4, 2015

Dillon AL 01:10 GMT January 3, 2015

probably irrelevant on the basis that when they did sell some oil for Euros that has not made any difference so why would any new contracts have any material impact on FX

CANCUN 00:35 GMT January 3, 2015
Entry: Target: Stop:

Did you know that Iran has signed a new contract and will take into account not dollars and euros? how will this affect the EURUSD pair


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