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Forex Forum Archive for 01/20/2015

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nw kw 23:42 GMT January 20, 2015
Charts

does oil impact Canada more than US?

no Canada's soft dollar, tar sands needs 50 oil,big investment still 70% all in long term

dc CB 22:53 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

not that long ago....$3.79gal ..late summer

el cheapo in Maryland

Livingston nh 22:37 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Deflation is the price of civilization -- there are two types (unlike inflation) good and bad -- this is good deflation and CANNOT be halted by interest rates (i.e., interest rates are PRICE, negative interest rates are deflationary)

Sydney ACC 22:11 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Petrol is retailing at some stations in Sydney at $1.00 a litre. Three months ago it was $1.55.

In NZ the price for unleaded last week averaged NZD 1.75 that followed a 46 cent reduction over the same period.

While the reduction in energy prices probably has yet to flow through to other products from lower transportation costs Australian CPI will be similarly low.

HK [email protected] 22:10 GMT January 20, 2015
No milk today



NZD/USD. 0.75, almost unavoidable.

HK [email protected] 22:04 GMT January 20, 2015
AUD/USD, I suspect 0.8140 to be challenged.
Reply   

Both AUD and NZD longs look bad bad bad.

HK [email protected] 21:59 GMT January 20, 2015
More or less a good trade:)
Reply   



HK [email protected] 14:51 GMT January 14, 2015
AUD/NZD Eventually to 1.0690: Reply

GVI Forex john 21:51 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

NZ CPI deflation.

GVI Forex john 21:47 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

downward pressure on prices everywhere.

GVI Forex john 21:46 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

New Zealand 4Q14 CPI

-- Data News --

QQ: -0.2% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
YY: +0.8% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 21:31 GMT January 20, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Livingston nh 21:28 GMT January 20, 2015
Charts
Reply   
USD/CHF trading ~50 pips of the 2011 SNB peg announcement so basically market saying no USD strength v. swiss (keep in mind the turmoil of that summer) -- see how long that perception lasts -- gold was nearly $600 higher and EUR/USD above 1.35 --- US rate hikes make this one ugly fast

Cable touched 1.48 during 2013 taper threat -- now that the BoE rate moves are pushed further out 1.48 looks like next stop

Today's CAD and JPY charts foretelling some dovish CB comments - does BoJ want to pay more than SNB? does oil impact Canada more than US?





Syd 21:16 GMT January 20, 2015
Focus On Very Important AUD Economic Calendar Events - 4th Week Of 2015
Reply   
We can see that throughout 2014, there is a steady price appreciation in bond prices and this took on greater scale towards the end of 2014. This reflects increase demand for quality Australian bonds even as yields start to decline. This would indicate that the AUD would likely to strengthen in the weeks ahead, but I would expect volatility along the way.

AUD

Syd 20:57 GMT January 20, 2015
Janjuah on 2015: Oil at $30; bonds to go crazy
Reply   

If you thought 2014 was volatile, hold on to your hats this year as the price of oil could hit $30 a barrel and the bond markets will outperform, according to Bob Janjuah, a closely-watched strategist from Nomura Securities.

little chance of Saudi Arabia changing its decision not to cut oil production, despite the 60 percent fall in prices since June 2014, and the cost of a barrel could head even lower.

GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT January 20, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.

GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT January 20, 2015
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

london red 20:33 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

some late night reading. its a post about fxcm but really you can replace them with any of the well known names.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-brokers/88834-fxcm-discussion.html

KL KL 20:15 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

FXCM just need to use the $100 Million from the $300 lifeline given to Bribe Draghi and ask.... Devalue Eur-usd to 1.10 USD or $1 USD..... Job done.... Profit on Friday $2.9 BIllion .... Shares up back above $34...due to EXTRAORDINARY Gain....

Problem solved for FXCM, the Loan paid back 300% and people can continue their hue and cry because there is enough Media to tame and Brain Wash the citizen of this world of SHAM and SCAM...Meanwhile FXCM is too BIG to Fail declares the world CB, FED, IMF, Obama..........goes on an Forex Brokers Aquisition and market Domination......LOL

GVI Forex Blog 20:07 GMT January 20, 2015
MIXED RISK: Markets Price ECB Ease Thursday. Volatile German ZEW Survey Beats
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: NZ CPI, JA- BOJ, GB- Employment, BOE Minutes, US- Housing Starts & Permits, CA- BOC Decision

MIXED RISK: Markets Price ECB Ease Thursday. Volatile German ZEW Survey Beats

gc sf 20:00 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

as far as what you would imagine FXCM's strategy going forward is -

they will crunch the numbers see if they can make it work under what they have now - while they collect a paycheck

if it is saveable great -- if not they will do what most people do in this situation -- speak to all the best clients they have

start a boutique brokerage elsewhere - move those clients into that with some new people "in charge" .. and start over learning from their prior mistakes.

but for now - no matter the cost keep it open while all this stuff is figured out + calculated.

NY JM 19:58 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

Conspiracy theory says it smells like someone knows the outcome of the BoJ policy board meeting.

gc sf 19:55 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

that about sums it up Red

pretty much it just keeps crawling higher without much of a pullback or it turns into a failure

london red 19:26 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

sf, would like to clear 11886 but looking good for breakout close. below 118 calls thing into question. so normally that would be a trade for tomorrow buying 11830-60 stop under figure. but if its a true trend breakout it wont give buyers the chance this early and will simply carry on with shallow pullbacks. bigger pullbacks come when trend is more mature.

gc sf 19:20 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

US Market gave us backing + filling -- now we can test 90-95 109.10 119.65

Japan I guess is paying these terrorists in Gold.

gc sf 19:17 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

FXCM loan is for 2 years maxing out @17%

also they will try to sell themselves within 3 months but the StockHolders only get 10% or something really low from the Sale.... so it is essentially worthless to own at present under these terms.

FXCM obviously has a huge problem - they are owed 225 million but if they sue those clients then they will never come back ... if these clients deposit more money then they will just take it

so they either acquire new traders or die basically.

london red 18:21 GMT January 20, 2015
QE IS DEFLATIONARY

historically low yields forces pension funds to hold larger proportion of stocks. we know how that will end up. last in get left holding the hot potatoes when the music stops. but for now qe ensures stocks continue to rise. but it will be the pension funds holding the stuff at the wrong time.

dc CB 18:17 GMT January 20, 2015
State of the Union: More War Coming

wonder if Da Boys will close it at or near Green today for the O.
Or will they close it Triple Dig Down ... so when the O speechifys about Helping/Saving the Middle Class...the Middle Class will be checking their 401Ks.

PAR 17:56 GMT January 20, 2015
QE IS DEFLATIONARY
Reply   
It fuels M & A leading to layoffs and greater efficiencies = lower prices

Retirees have no revenues on their savings and stop spending = deflationary

It leadsto assets inflation = companies prefer to borrow at zero percent and buy back their own shares instead of investing in the economy .

QE transforms free markets into Central Planned Markets

PAR 17:44 GMT January 20, 2015
We love our leaders

Thats what you get if you go to a Soviet Style plan economy from a free market economy . The former Soviet leaders were also far from popular .

Paris ib 17:32 GMT January 20, 2015
We love our leaders
Reply   
Judging from the posts here all our leaders (Draghi, Hollande, Obama, etc.) are held in high esteem and loved by all. :-)

Hillegom purk 17:23 GMT January 20, 2015
e/u

Right: 2014 range: 140-121 = 1900 bleep.
from may 2014 the only way was down. With a bit of luck we will see 119-101 this year. I will play that. Correction will be there soon. Overshoot will take us at 121. The more people will short now, the higher the correction will be.

GVI Forex john 17:21 GMT January 20, 2015
State of the Union: More War Coming

Don't expect anything from the SOTU speech. Just the usual hot air.

PAR 17:20 GMT January 20, 2015
DRAGHI - HOLLANDE
Reply   
Draghi to cut rates to MINUS 1% and go for unlimited bond buying till crude oil prices are back above $ 100.

Then he will become president not of Italy but of OPEC .

Paris ib 17:09 GMT January 20, 2015
State of the Union: More War Coming
Reply   
"Obama’s SOTU speech will feature Yemen..... Expect grandstanding on “tough new cyber operations” to combat a nonexistent ‘North Korean threat’, as well as tough “new Anti-terror measures” to combat the contrived terrorist threat in France and Europe..."

which ties into the supposed terrorists announcing on film that they were from Yemen before they escaped unimpeded from a location in the Centre of Paris on January the 7th.

And right on time Clint Eastwood releases the propaganda war film 'American Sniper' so everyone in the U.S. is on side.

Escalation and Obama

london red 17:00 GMT January 20, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

yen the one to watch into close. so far holding up. close abv 11805/10 is bullish so they will run it down if bear trend to continue to create a bearish day candle with long wick.

GVI Forex john 16:56 GMT January 20, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

20 January-- 17:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. UI.S. equity markets have gotten off to an uneven start ater they returned from the Monday holiday. In forex the USD and EUR are mixed. The is holding parity today  European equity markets are closing off their high. Markets are in a  MIXED RISK posture.ahead of expected ECB on Thursday. The volatile German ZEW survey was much stronger than expected thanks to a weaker EUR and lower energy prices. Chinese 4Q14 GDP was in line with street estimates.

In Far East trade equities closed up. Key European 10-yr yields are up. Peripheral yields are up. Traders are still adjusting to the CHF spike. U.S. equities and 10yr yield are down.





The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Haifa ac 16:43 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

abel:
"fxcm disappears means gain for other brokers"

You are ABSOLUTELY WRONG
After MAN FINANCIAL and CORZINE NFA hired SCORES OF LAWYERS and have imposed EXTREMELY HARSH restrictions on brokers, IBs , CTAs etc
WHY? to protect the business
People STOPPED TRADING and did not trust any broker after MAN FIANACIALS
this is BAD FOR BUSINESS
FXCM going under is NOT GOOD FOR OTHER BROKERS because it casts a dark spell on everyone

Paris ib 16:41 GMT January 20, 2015
Decoupling

Stock market decoupling continues. DAX near record highs and positive for the day. European markets all higher. U.S. stock markets negative again.

london red 16:38 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

yes some good articles, well worth a read.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:30 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

red and others. One of the goals of Global-View and our advocacy Global Traders Association is to treat trading as a business and a casino.

many of our articles are geared towards this.


EMAIL

Paris ib 16:28 GMT January 20, 2015
Draghi - Hollande

This is so weird. Hollande is an insider of the worse kind. The first on board when it's time to rush an attack on, say, Libya. Part of the triumvirate of creeps: Obama, Cameron and him. Involved in all that weirdness around Charlie Hebdo. He instantly organised public relations marches with other heads of states, the instant printing of "Je Suis Charlie" banners (though lord knows they somehow failed to manage road blocks in central Paris to prevent a getaway, failed to mention who the supposed third party in the attack was or what happened to him), quickly pushed through a huge increase in military spending and announced the expedition of a warship to the Middle East.

So now this: Hollande pre-empts what the ECB is going to do on Thursday. Why do this? Because he knows? Because he wants to force their hand? Because he just can't wait?

And then there was his little unannounced side trip to Russia to visit Putin and his announcement that sanctions will be withdrawn against Russia.... does he have a deal to announce? Or is he hoping for a deal?

An insider but with some competency issues.

Meanwhile GOLD keeps getting bid. All these clowns manage to do is to undermine confidence in paper money.

Hollande

GVI Forex Blog 16:27 GMT January 20, 2015 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ CPI, JA- BOJ, GB- Employment, BOE Minutes, US- Mortgages, Housing Starts & Permits, CA- BOC Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 21, 2015

GVI Forex john 16:24 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS



January 20, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, January 21, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: NZ CPI, JA- BOJ, GB- Employment, BOE Minutes, US- Mortgages, Housing Starts & Permits, CA- BOC Decision

  • Far East: NZ CPI, JA- BOJ
  • Europe: GB- Employment, BOE Minutes
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Housing Starts & Permits, CA- BOC Decision


dc CB 16:15 GMT January 20, 2015
30Y Bond
Reply   
in Dec I wrote that the 30 would be 1.9 in 2015.
If Draggie pulls out a big boner Thursday, the 30 could drop into the 1.XX% This Week.

london red 16:14 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

since 95% of clients lose, its a great business, as long as you operate as a bookie and dont match trades to market. you are betting against gamblers, so the eventual outcome is known. after the loan they need to market well and acquire distressed assets elsewhere to increase size of their "net". i understand they will pay a maximum of 17% interest p/a. conservatively they should be able to book 80% of yearly inflows as theirs minus costs, so as long as they get client inflows of a 100 million a year they should be fine. and thats what they were doing per quarter last year. the risk is will clients move elsewhere thinking their money isnt safe. the fact that most will lose the lot of it each year doesnt make a difference to a gambler, but he will worry that someone else may lose it for him. this is where the marketing comes in and why all of these firms that stayed alive are proudly releasing statements to that degree in order to draw in any clients wanting to move.

jkt abel 15:56 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

ac, who do you mean by they?
fxcm disappears means gain for other brokers, just like any other business

haifa ac 15:54 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

If they let FXCM disappear-- it would affect all other brokers-- they have to save them for their own survival.

jkt abel 15:49 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

lol, time to say byebye to fxcm, how are they gonna made 10++% return in this deflationary era? by robbing clients?

dc CB 15:38 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63

they were rescued by a Loan shark.

FXCM: LOAN HAS INITIAL INTEREST RATE OF 10%, INCREASING BY 1.5% PER ANNUM EACH QUARTER: BBG

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:36 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

5% rule being helped by US stocks turning down (and bond yields slipping)

dc CB 15:33 GMT January 20, 2015
State of the Union Speech

Cody Keenan, the chief White House speechwriter President Obama has christened “Hemingway.

In all the policy pronouncements about tax increases on the rich and tax cuts for the middle class, Mr. Obama’s remarks are certain to address the struggles of ordinary Americans in some of the gritty, Everyman prose that has become Mr. Keenan’s trademark.

the burly 34-year-old former high school quarterback, born in Chicago, went to high school in the wealthy town of Ridgefield, Conn., in Fairfield County, where he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, voraciously read spy novels and was president of the student body. He graduated from Northwestern University, and rolled into Washington at the age of 21 with just a fraternity brother’s couch to crash on and a cocky attitude.

State of the Union Speechwriter for Obama Draws on Various Inspirations

GVI Forex john 15:26 GMT January 20, 2015
EUR/CHF parity

nh - I believe you are right that the new 1.20 is 1.00. My question is whether the SNB will quietly defend this level. I have little confidence in them but assume they will not try once again to defend a specific level.

Haifa ac 15:24 GMT January 20, 2015
FXCM is trading at 1.63
Reply   
In spite of getting $300,000,000
Are they going to let it be wiped out?
What does it mean to Forex trading?
Can you trust anyone anymore?

GVI Forex john 15:18 GMT January 20, 2015
State of the Union Speech
Reply   
This is all a bunch of meaningless theater. Nothing Obama presents tonight will be enacted. Domestic ratings for the speech have been tumbling in recent years because the public has realized that it is meaningless as well. His party does not control the House or the Senate so he is just talking to a wall.

Don't stay up to watch it!

dc CB 15:16 GMT January 20, 2015
Bullard - But Wait



BBG chart

Livingston nh 15:08 GMT January 20, 2015
EUR/CHF parity
Reply   
In 2011 just before the SNB put in the peg there was considerable talk of EUR/CHF parity -- the sudden removal of the peg may have been motivated by political (i.e., fiscal) forces as well as the SNB's desire to avoid indirect funding ECB QE // so given the level of EUR reserves what and when does the SNB start to sell off -- will SNB transfer much of the holdings to ECB thru QE or will it hold out for better levels?

Is parity the new 1.20??

dc CB 15:07 GMT January 20, 2015
Bullard - But Wait
Reply   
But wait, wasn't the now Famous Bullard Bottom set 'cause he said that Rates SHUDN'T BE RAISED? ' Din't he HINT at MOAR QE as Stox were "crashing" in mid October? Din't that remark spark 200+ pt rally in the SnP? in a Word WTF.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Mr. Bullard said U.S. long-term rates are being pulled down by global factors, and not new threats to the domestic economy. He wants to “get going” with rate increases. Below are excerpts of the interview with Mr. Bullard:

Fed’s Bullard Eager to Raise Rates Soon

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. NAHB Index January 2015

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
57 vs. 58 exp. vs. 57 (r 58) prev.

RELEASE: NAHB Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT January 20, 2015
RISK ON: Markets Expecting ECB Ease Thursday. German ZEW Survey Beats

10-yr 1.800%, -3.1bp
S&P futures +1

moving away from risk ON bias towards RISK OFF. USD bearish

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

JP, in this case I am only pointing out the odds and you can decide for yourself. 8 pip stop was a good r/r based on our pivot point back tests but you have decide whether to be short ahead of the BoJ decision.

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT January 20, 2015
crude oil

hk nt 12:39 former CIBC chief economist was calling for $200/bbl as well
(he was basically protracting a sloping line)

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

Jay why would you not suggest a trade that has
- 5% odds of not working and
- 95% odds of working ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:58 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

As posted on GVI Forex (high 118.78)

Tuesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:02 GMT 01/20/2015 - My Profile
USDJPY R3 = 118.85 (5% rule)

For me t/p zone is between R2-R3, not suggesting a short but 95% of the time it tends to work.

london red 13:57 GMT January 20, 2015
euro
Reply   
for anyone long from 11570/80 region, i am pulling stop up to break even as this time must make higher high or will risk taking aout 70 floor to test 50/52. if does take out 11617 then should move onto 11640 where id want to take profits and ready a short at 11660-75. tight stop abv 11685 as will be selling again at 11720-40 if stops continue to be sought.

nw kw 12:46 GMT January 20, 2015
crude oil

oil risk is natgas world fight to dampen usa plans for exporting it this year.

hk nt 12:39 GMT January 20, 2015
crude oil
Reply   
Dec 2011, Iran was calling for $200/barrel, Then, oil price has dived to 4-year low.

Jan 2015, Iran is calling for $25/barrel. Perhaps, $44 is the yearly low.

nw kw 12:33 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

chf/jpy can have strongest up move.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:10 GMT January 20, 2015
Are You Responsible for Negative Balances With Your Forex Broker?
Reply   

Open Access

I have gotten several emails from traders who got hurt by the SNB decision to abandon the defense of EURCHF 1.20 and subsequent gap higher in the CHF. The questions range from whether a forex broker has a right to subjectively set a rate for the execution of a stop order to what to do about a negative balance the broker is asking you to pay. The latter is the more pressing issue that I will attempt to address as it affects all who trade retail forex.

Are You Responsible for Negative Balances With Your Forex Broker?

nw kw 12:07 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

level 119.60-65./// I see this more than the down side.

gc sf 12:03 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

Japan PM vows to save two hostages threatened with beheading by ISIS

"JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER Shinzo Abe says that the lives of two hostages 'are the top priority' after a video purported to come from ISIS shows a militant threatening to behead them unless a $200 million ransom is paid within 72 hours, in the first public ransom demand from the terror group."

gc sf 12:00 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen

bit hesitant to say too much ahead of a US Session

but off 118.90-95 quite a bit of profit taking

if goes through there then next target level 119.60-65.

GVI Forex Blog 11:42 GMT January 20, 2015
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD had a firm tone in Asia but saw some of its glow ebb during European trading. Dealers in Asia initially cited a WSJ's Hilsenrath piece that the Fed remained on track to begin raising interest rates this year despite the move lower in long term yields

TradeTheNews.com EU Mid-Market Update: German ZEW survey continues to improve thanks to lower oil and weaker Euro

GVI Forex john 11:20 GMT January 20, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems
Reply   


EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




PAR 11:10 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

The IMF is usually late to the party .

Now it looks like growth is improving everywhere and the IMF downgrade seems to confirm that . Lagarde is always so doomish .

Mtl JP 11:05 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

- Washington (AFP) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday sharply cut its 2015-2016 world growth forecast of only six months ago, saying lower oil prices did not offset pervasive weaknesses around the globe. The IMF said poorer prospects in China, Russia, the euro area and Japan will hold world GDP growth to just 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent in 2016

- Chinese President Xi Jinping and the other six members of the Communist Party's elite Politburo Standing Committee have been given 62 percent pay rises

GVI Forex john 10:38 GMT January 20, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

20 January-- 10:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. Markets are awaiting the return of U.S. traders following the Monday holiday. In forex the USD and EUR are mixed. Equity markets remain in a RISK ON posture.ahead of expected policy ease by the ECB on Thursday in the form of new quantitative ease. The German ZEW survey was much stronger than expected thanks to a weaker EUR and lower energy prices. Chinese 4Q14 GDP was in line with street estimates.

In Far East trade equities generally closed higher. Key European 10-yr yields are higher. Peripheral yields are mixed. Traders are still adjusting to the SNB fiasco from last Thursday. U.S. equity futures are up and the  10yr bond yield is lower.





The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Syd 10:36 GMT January 20, 2015
Will ECB QE signal a de facto unwinding of monetary union?
Reply   
The point is that – according to economic theory – monetary union can only really work in the long term if its risks and rewards are shared federal risks and rewards, not national ones.

So if it emerges that Draghi was only able to secure agreement for QE by devolving its operation to the national central banks, in an attempt to reassure German taxpayers that they are not in any way taking financial risks to support governments other than their own, then many would see that as highly retrograde – a de facto unravelling of monetary union.

As it happens, it would also be a fairly pointless and futile gesture to German taxpayers, in the sense that if the worst happened – which is that it looked as though a country like Italy would default on its debts – Germany could never be insulated from the huge losses, even if the Italian bonds were owned by the Italian central bank rather than the European Central Bank.

In the case where an Italy or a Spain or (more topically) a Greece were about to renege on what it owed, Germany would either have to stand by when the country left the euro (which would produce eye-watering costs for other eurozone members) or bail that country out.

Or to put it another way, Germany is in an “all for one, one for all” monetary union, even if at times it would like to pretend not to be. FXLI VE

Mtl JP 10:30 GMT January 20, 2015
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 15 January 2015

Saudi Arabia can cope with low oil prices for "at least eight years", Saudi Arabia's minister of petroleum's former senior adviser has told the BBC. - BBC

GVI Forex john 10:21 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

ZEW credits lower EURUSD and falling ol prices
.for improved German economic sentiment

nw kw 10:20 GMT January 20, 2015
EBOLA -QE

Now that the Ebola virus epidemic is slowly getting under control

will there gdp be improved=world trade

GVI Forex john 10:12 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

German ZEW Survey. Much stronger than expected.


GVI Forex john 10:01 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

ZEW Survey much stronger than expected.

GVI Forex john 10:01 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey January 2015




NEWS ALERT

Current Conditions: +22.4 vs. +13.0 exp. vs. +10.0 prev.

Economic Expectations: 48.4 vs. +43.0 exp. vs. +34.9 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Lahore FM 09:54 GMT January 20, 2015
" Trade Ideas "

Buy EURAUD
Entry: 1.4132 Target: 1.60 Stop: 1.3950

re-entered long euruad.earlier long for 1.60 target at 1.444 was stopped out at 1.4190 for minus 254 pips.

gc sf 09:44 GMT January 20, 2015
EURJPY

I think the point being that the Japanese will ask the US to try to rescue them if possible .. so that leads to another whole set of problems potentially.

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: China GDP in line with street estimates.

PAR 09:29 GMT January 20, 2015
EURJPY

Whats the problem . Kuroda just prints 200 million . He s used to printing trillions .

GVI Forex john 09:24 GMT January 20, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

China GDP 4Q14yy





EARLIER Data News

+7.30% vs. +7.20% exp. vs. 7.30% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

gc sf 08:54 GMT January 20, 2015
EURJPY

that was a good sell

this ISIS asking 200 mio for the 2 Japanese captives or they execute them in 72 hours

Japanese Govt says they are considering options.

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:33 GMT January 20, 2015
AceTrader Jan 20: Daily Recommendations on Major EUR/USD
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 20 Jan 2015 07:58GMT

EUR/USD -1.1590
Despite yesterday's brief rise to 1.1639 on short-covering, renewed selling below previous res at 1.1649 capped euro's upside.

The single currency fell again to 1.1573 in Asian morning on renewed speculation that ECB's president Mario Draghi will announce a 550 billion-euro ($635 billion) bond-purchase program on 22 Jan, suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1540/50 and possibly towards, however, aforesaid low at 1.1460 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1649 resistance would bring stronger correction of medium-term downtrend to 1.1700.

PAR 07:38 GMT January 20, 2015
EURJPY
Reply   
Taking some profit on EURJPY at 137.15 . Bought Friday afternoon at 135.35 before the long US weekend .

PAR 07:35 GMT January 20, 2015
EBOLA -QE
Reply   
Now that the Ebola virus epidemic is slowly getting under control a new epidemic is spreading all over the world QE .


Slowdown in Chinese growth . Do some QE .

gc sf 07:15 GMT January 20, 2015
Yen
Reply   
Models are buying $yen gbpyen euryen + audyen

$yen it is expecting to see 118.90-95

GVI Forex Blog 07:01 GMT January 20, 2015 Reply   
(CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.5% V 1.7%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 7.2%E - (CN) CHINA 2014 URBAN FIXED ASSETS: 15.7% V 15.7%E; Fresh 13-year low - (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 7.9% (3-month high) V 7.4%E;

TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: China 2014 GDP slows to 24-year low, misses target for the first time since '98; IMF cuts global growth targets - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 05:17 GMT January 20, 2015
No milk today
Reply   

FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ has cut its 2014/15 NZ milk price forecast again to $4.35kg MS, while anticipating a softer opening price for 2015/16 to be announced in May around the $5.75/kg MS mark.

"We have cut our 2014/15 milk price forecast again to $4.35kg MS. That’s well below break-even for many dairy farmers and represents an approximate $6.9bn (or 3.1% of GDP) hit to overall dairy revenue compared to last season."

"We also anticipate a softer opening price for 2015/16 to be announced in May around the $5.75/kg MS mark (previously $6.50/kg MS); although we expect a further uplift toward the low $6/kg MS mark by the end of the season."

"We project milk powder prices to recover to around the US$2,800-$3,000 per tonne mark by the middle of the year and then US$3,300-US$3,500 per tonne by early 2016."

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:00 GMT January 20, 2015
AceTrader Jan 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jan 2015 01:09GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Euro fell ahead of Asian open on Tuesday following a short-covering rally to 1.1639 in thin N. American session, some cited for the intra-day weakness on euro-bearish news.
Reuters reported Greece's anti-bailout opposition party Syriza appears to be gaining momentum with less than a week before Sunday's snap election, moving further ahead of the co-ruling conservatives in 3 separate opinion polls.

Syriza, which wants to renegotiate a chunk of Greek debt and end austerity measures, saw its poll lead grow to 6.5 points on Monday, according to a survey for the University of Macedonia conducted for Greece's SKAI Television, up from a 4.5 point lead shown by the same pollster last week.

Syriza would garner 33.5% of the vote, up from 31.5%, while PMr Antonis Samaras' New Democracy party, which has pushed through unpopular reforms as part of an international bailout, stood unchanged on 27%.

A Syriza victory could trigger a stand off with Greece's EU and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.

A 2nd survey on Monday, carried out by Alco for the newspaper Proto Thema, put Syriza on 33.1% with the conservatives on 28.5%, a 4.6 point lead for Syriza compared with a difference of 3.5 points in a poll by the same firm last week.

A 3rd survey by GPO for television station Mega also showed Syriza pulling ahead, this time from a lead of 3.2 points in a survey conducted nearly 2 weeks ago to 4 points, with the anti-bailout party on 30.4% compared to 26.4% for New Democracy.

All 3 pollsters indicated that centrist party Potami (River) could play the role of kingmaker if voters deliver a hung parliament, with the political movement created by a journalist-turned-politician coming in third place, although jointly with the far-right Golden Dawn party in one survey.

Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's NZIER Business Confidence, China's GDP, Retail sales, Industrial Output, Germany's Producer Prices, ZEW Current Conditions, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italy's Trade Balance, euro zone's ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Market Index.

GVI Forex 01:36 GMT January 20, 2015
Iran sees no OPEC shift toward a cut, says oil industry could withstand $25 crude
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(Reuters) - Iran sees no sign of a shift within OPEC toward action to support oil prices, its oil minister said, adding its oil industry could ride out a further price slump to $25 a barrel.

Iran sees no OPEC shift toward a cut, says oil industry could withstand $25 crude

Syd 01:15 GMT January 20, 2015
Swiss move shows euro is like a bad, bad marriage
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So I propose a test: All the voters in every EU member country should be allowed to once again vote on European Union membership. But this time, the first votes must be accepted and no stern punishments can be threatened for the nations who bolt.

Something tells me such a vote would make today's rush to get out of the euro look like nothing.

Mtl JP 01:03 GMT January 20, 2015
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 15 January 2015
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..."In 2015, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 million barrels a day, following an upward revision of 30 million barrels a day, due to expectations of higher oil requirements in OECD America and other parts of Asia,"... / .. .pdf report

Sydney ACC 00:34 GMT January 20, 2015
Sometimes it's enough to be the best of a bad currency lot

With the 3 year bond rate currently at 2.1% and the 10 year rate at 2.6% there's scope for the RBA to cut the cash rate further.
Bang goes that leg - now you've got a three legged chair.

Syd 00:19 GMT January 20, 2015
Sometimes it's enough to be the best of a bad currency lot
Reply   
Moreover, there aren’t too many currencies that look like a better buy than the Australian dollar. Sometimes you don’t need to be a stand-out, just the best of a bad lot. The US dollar is the stand-out for this year, although most are already positioned for further US dollar strength. Kiwi rates make the NZ dollar attractive too, and perhaps if you need exposure to Europe then STG (the British pound) is the currency of choice. But that’s about it amongst the majors.

One key support for the local currency – and one that will limit downside in the coming six months – remains the fact that the local cash rate is one of the highest among advanced economies (see table).

 




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