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Forex Forum Archive for 01/22/2015

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tokyo ginko 23:47 GMT January 22, 2015
sold nzd/usd

welcome to the twin club..
no nzd/usd exposure now, look to short again above 7565 levels
have position in nzd/sgd for long term

aud looking to final add 20pips below from here for a cost of 0.8118 Marches 15 about spot 0.8150 levels..will sit to 0.8460/80

gt all!

nw kw 23:24 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

chf/jpy tops out first in February

nw kw 23:17 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

eur/gbp looks tradable

london red 23:09 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

rba is possible might be a bit too soon but rbnz think those looking for easing bias will be disappointed, there definitely too soon. id say worth buying a dip in the hours ahead of meet, you might be pleasantly surprised.
re aussie couple big lt fibs at 7945/7, pretty much matching euros longterm fibs at 11206/46. euro struggling to move back above 11367, thats the first one ahead of 11394 the first fib of todays move. bigger res now at 11450/60, they took in a lot of wad at 60/70 so just below a good point for fresh trades if seen nxt week. so theres an argument to move stops on shorts down from 11475 to just above 114 but only for those that sold thru 11460, as i think last daily low at 11460 should hold while dt in play. so while id stick with 11475 stop id drop the tp to 11255.

nw kw 23:08 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

markets trade in narrow ranges for the rest of Friday

xag/aud pivot hear day chart far back, big up or down test

Livingston nh 23:03 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

thanx

gc sf 22:59 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

it was in the papers yesterday .. but I doubt it

more likely they do nothing and wait for more factors to emerge + NZD is supposed to hike later in the year.

our CB seems to bit more practical than some of these others with the QE Mania on Parade at every opportunity.

Livingston nh 22:46 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

sf - any thots about RBA following BoC??

gc sf 22:45 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia
Reply   
I don't believe Asia has the firepower to turn this EUR decline around -- we will probably trade 1.1330 - 1.1400

just can't imagine we retake 1.14 ... and with all the broken supports we risk down to 1.1230-40 today/monday

$Yen support @118.10-15 for 119.65

everything is tied together obviously and worst case would be markets trade in narrow ranges for the rest of Friday - and then gap Monday Open.

gc sf 22:39 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading

I normally use chrome - but now I switched to Maxathon and its loading properly... :)

nw kw 22:30 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading

I run professional 8

Livingston nh 22:29 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading

kw - watch out java -- win8 totally screwed most java charts

nw kw 22:27 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading

new java hear

GVI Forex john 22:12 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





KL KL 22:12 GMT January 22, 2015
BUY AUDUSD!!!

Stops eaten by sharks ...Now whale shark long again .8013...very ..very slowly...until my point of control...then Thermo Nuke these little nippers.....LOL

GVI Forex john 22:01 GMT January 22, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

KL KL 22:01 GMT January 22, 2015
BUY AUDUSD!!!

Getting out AUDUSD Long here .....80253.....cover 1/2 first of catching falling knife long trade to .79998....in case how low it went ....went long with increasing power.....avg .8008.....no need to be greedy ou 4/5 here ...rest .80193....and restart long engine at my point of control .80068.......unless a black swan and AUDUSD plunge to .6705... and jumped over my stop I am done dit li do....

A big Phew....now AUDUSD collapse to .625.......for My Prize Armada Death Star is Toast........feeling smug now with 17 pips.....LOL...calling it a day...maybe attack the indices later in Aussie..... Go Socceroos...Korea...Japan...Down with Middle east countries...No Romantics to Evil......even in soccer...that spitting Saudi Player should cop the same Crap as Saurez..for biting!!...my rant for the day... gl ft all

SaaR KaL 21:58 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading

GC
Works fine with me

SaaR KaL 21:57 GMT January 22, 2015
for next day

GBPAUD Shorts
Very recommended

another good buy
is AUDNZD
Below 1.06
longs placed around 1.0440
tgt 1.11

gc sf 21:54 GMT January 22, 2015
Forum Loading
Reply   
Is it just me ?? - Forum just doesn't load properly any more - just gets stuck because of the new ads.

SaaR KaL 21:46 GMT January 22, 2015
for next day
Reply   
Cable shorts from above 1.5150
Should correct back IMO
EURUSD will wait till 1.16 to short
Now Longing AUDUSD and SHorts USDJPY

GVI Forex john 21:18 GMT January 22, 2015
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

KL KL 20:53 GMT January 22, 2015
BUY AUDUSD!!!
Reply   
DOOOOMMMMSHHH!!!!

..NInja arrive...Long Relentless AUDUSD .80188....no need to think...in fact Ultra Relentless....until Bankrupt stuff...... cover when I see 10 pips.... Testing fire power of Armada Death Star Account!!!

dc CB 20:34 GMT January 22, 2015
USD/JPY

Odds are Gammy and Friends won't change anything on Weds, and since there is no press conf, there will be not "mis-spoken" phrases.

The extra Jiuce from the ECB kicks in late March ? was that the time given? So there's another month and a half to run up Stox and Help the Middle Class portfolios. So there's incentive to close out Jan in the Plus Column. And as Jan goes so goes the Year...which you will be hearing next week on every Financial Propaganda show.

USD/JPY back to 120 and higher? The Abe Yellen Draggi Team.

Livingston nh 20:17 GMT January 22, 2015
USD/JPY
Reply   
the one to watch for the next few days is the USD/JPY as stox start to whistle "money for nuthin" - 118.90 breaks the modestly declining 21dma

Livingston nh 19:55 GMT January 22, 2015
High RISK Warning

1. Re: greek election - by singling out Greece (no soup for you until July) ECB may have given a last minute issue to Syriza // 2. since 80% of the purchases are to be risked to national CBs maybe Bundesbank, Finland, et al who are nearly risk free choose not to participate - ECB risk sharing is limited to 20% (i.e., 200 bio eur)

This is a VERY deflationary regime - see 90's Japanese concern w/ sterilization and US purchase of treasurys (only MBS had any effect)

GVI Forex Blog 19:36 GMT January 22, 2015
RISK ON: ECB QE Announced. Bond Yields Fall and Equities Rise. Flash PMIs Due
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: JP/CN - flash PMIs, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, CA- CPI, US- flash PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators, COT Report

RISK ON: ECB QE Announced. Bond Yields Fall and Equities Rise. Flash PMIs Due

SaaR KaL 19:14 GMT January 22, 2015
Oil

GBPAUD heading to 1.50
for 2015

Israel Dil 18:48 GMT January 22, 2015
TODAY

hahaha

Great timing at the same day euro printing machines got the go go go

SaaR KaL 18:47 GMT January 22, 2015
Oil

USDCHF a sell above 0.8670 till .8810
tgt for now 0.8500

Israel Dil 18:42 GMT January 22, 2015
dil dil dil
Reply   
Gold
Silver
Rouble

SaaR KaL 18:41 GMT January 22, 2015
Oil

will coming dive of USDJPY into 112
GBPJPY might see 170
will add shorts above 178.20 area

PAR 18:38 GMT January 22, 2015
TODAY

TSIPRAS: WE WILL DEMAND PAYMENT OF WORLD WAR II REPARATION BY GERMANY

PAR 18:31 GMT January 22, 2015
TODAY
Reply   
Buy the rumor and buy the fact .

Market psychology is changing as central bankers Always beat the wildest market expectations .

SaaR KaL 18:30 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Long AUDUSD .8060
tgt > 0.8140
could do a weird 0.8500 as tgt

NY JM 18:28 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Sanibel. All I am saying is I do not see why so many have been looking for the bottom in the EURUSD today. At some point maybe you get lucky but I do not see the r/r in the trade.

london red 18:27 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

11367 done now lt fibs at 11246/06 tgts.

SaaR KaL 18:26 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

wait till 1.100 at least
Will short above 1.16 if seen

SaaR KaL 18:25 GMT January 22, 2015
Oil
Reply   
Oil is Bullish for next month
today...Probably till 110
I doubt we see 44

SHorts USDJPY Expecting it around 112 in a day or 2

haifa ac 18:21 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

bottom?
that is what zeus said a few days ago
USA ZEUS 15:43 GMT 01/15/2015
Safely long EUR/USDnow at 1.1615 for a swing trade.
Nice capitulation day. Will refer back to this day as the MT bottom.

PAR 18:17 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Some German high ranking officials to resign from ECB ?
Probably not , the job pais too well .

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 18:12 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Jay..we should use rationale now?

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 18:04 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

adding 1373 to 1425 long…..

finally found the bottom.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:03 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

I don't like to influence trades but cannot see the rationale for buying EURUSD today.

This is an example of the hard (to find good entry) trade is more often than not the right trade.

Tallinn viies 17:52 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   
biggest move in pips during the year!

PAR 17:45 GMT January 22, 2015
Forex Platform
Reply   
Are the fo
rex platforms still ok . Not too many unsecured debits at these prices . Huge move in bunds .

Paris ib 17:44 GMT January 22, 2015
They didn't take a VOTE !!

I still can't get over the fact that Draghi pushed this through without a VOTE. Think about that. His masters, where ever they are, will be pleased.

PAR 17:40 GMT January 22, 2015
High RISK Warning

Greek elections a non event . Draghi will use part of his € trillion package to keep Greece in Euro . It has all been planned.

dc CB 17:37 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

After it's birth the Euro fell to 0.8700

to the future, back

Tallinn viies 17:35 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   
bought euros at 1,1410. target 1,1640.

GVI Forex john 17:34 GMT January 22, 2015
High RISK Warning
Reply   
Sunday, when markets are closed, Greece will be holding national elections. The leftist Syriza Party is expected to be win the largest number of votes, but would have to form a coalition to rule. Markets worry about what the implications of a victory would be for the EUR.

No matter what the outcome, this could be a high-risk period for trading positions until the dust settles later on Monday. With forex liquidity currently thin we recommend you position and leverage yourself accordingly.

We don't expect that we will be able to identify all high risk events, but if there is any interest, we will try to identify potentially high risk events as we see them arising.

PAR 17:32 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB

ABRACADRAGHI

Hillegom purk 17:28 GMT January 22, 2015
e/u

Last one was 11405. Not the most reasonable average but ok. I will be scaling from time to time and will get better prices.
Move not over, tomorrow under 114,
my average will be the resistance '77 i guess..
Tally Ho!

Paris ib 17:25 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB

PAR - yeah that's a laugh. Find me a Central Bank without crap on the Balance Sheets. Oh maybe the Russian Central Bank. But the FED? Laugh and a half. And the BoJ.... good grief.

dc CB 17:24 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB

The rating agency that dares to do that will end up in court over the ratings they did in the runup to 2007-2008 by the US DOJ.

See: Standard and Poors Fined...stories this week. (ps they dared to downgrade US DEbt)

Paris ib 17:24 GMT January 22, 2015
Treasury Selling

Thanks CB. Funding and refunding. That has been some fairly steady selling pressure though. I always keep one eye open for what is going on in Treasuries. Nothing to worry about so far but if the 3 year gets back above 1% again - then I would be concerned about stocks.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 17:24 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

JM..will let you now how it turns out..

PAR 17:22 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB
Reply   
ECB credit rating may be downgraded with so much crap on its balance sheet .

dc CB 17:21 GMT January 22, 2015
Treasury Selling

US Auctions next week. 2s,5s,7s. The 5 takes place on FMOC Day.
Making room and taking profit from New Low Yield levels.

Paris ib 17:19 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

JM - good point.

NY JM 17:17 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

What catches my attention is all we have seen today are traders looking to bottom pick a currency that is making new 10+ year lows.

Paris ib 17:17 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Jay - the paper stuff or the exchange rate as a theoretical currency? I think that was the theoretical currency launch. Everyone was forecasting it going to the moon !! The paper stuff was later. That's when prices shot through the roof UNOFFICIALLY of course.

GVI Forex john 17:16 GMT January 22, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On


22 January-- 17:10 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. Today finally saw  the ECB's Quantitative Easing program for the Eurozone. The ECB released bond purchase levels of EUR60 bn/mo, in excess of the EUR 50 bln/mo expected  The 60bn figure probably contains ECB activity already in place. The table below shows that equity prices rose and bond yields fell in response to the announcement. Also, the EUR fell sharply vs. the USD and on its crosses. Markets now are in a RISK ON posture.

In Far East trade, equities closed up. Key Europe peripheral 10-yr yields are down. U.S. equities are up and the10-yr yield is steady.





The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:14 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

ib, the official launch of the EUR was January 1, 1999.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 17:14 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

long 1425 slipping now…maybe back out on the ledge again..
OR add more below 1400..

have made good gains in past by doubling losing trades..
in clear violation of much i am sure...

Paris ib 17:14 GMT January 22, 2015
Treasury Selling

Selling looks fairly relentless to me. What is this? Geopolitics?

GVI Forex Blog 17:13 GMT January 22, 2015
Global Markets News
Reply   
ECB President Draghi fired the big bazooka this morning, unveiling a QE program that was slightly bigger than expected, in an attempt to boost inflation. European equities closed at their highs after solid gains, while US equities are advancing

TradeTheNews.com US Mid-Session Update: ECB Unveils Bond Buying QE Program

Paris ib 16:55 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Haifa - oh yes he was. That's why Iraq was invaded. Same with Libya. Gheddafi was apparently planning a pan-african Dinar backed by Gold. What happened? Libya was invaded.

Fisk

Haifa ac 16:52 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Euro started around 1984 at .8500
Funny thing-- Sadam Hussein announced right then he switches all his dollar assets to Euros. I thought he was an idiot-- turned out he was not.

Paris ib 16:49 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

Jay - thanks. It's interesting because it didn't actually exist as a paper currency until 2000 (or so) and the very next day the price of aspirin doubled but no-one could figure it out because everyone was suddenly paying in Euros.

Euro

Paris ib 16:46 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

:-)

Paris ib 16:45 GMT January 22, 2015
Gold is loving this
Reply   
Putin who has been selling OIL for Gold for a little while now, must also be loving this.

Central Banks want you to have no alternative. In the real world Central Bankers die off and there are always alternatives. Mitterand went to his grave questioning whether he spent his whole life just stacking stones in the desert. Obviously the answer is: yes he did. And Draghi doesn't look like h.ell for nothing.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 16:44 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

stand corrected with your memory skills.

my rear view mirror is dimming these days anyway..

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:42 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

EURUSD launch rate in 1999 was around 1.18

Paris ib 16:39 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd

In the bigger scheme of things the Euro came into the Universe at 1.10 and the market was mega bullish at the time. It was the same time the USD/JPY was at 139 and the market call was, I don't know, 200. After it's birth the Euro fell to 0.8700 (and the market call was..... no idea) and then we went all the way back up to 1.6 something or other. So this is not uncharted territory. It's just the usual market b.llshit.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 16:37 GMT January 22, 2015
Eurousd
Reply   
euro dropped to 233 from 1 hr tunnel signalling probable place for retrace..
it's the proverbial uncharted territory now on resistance/support it seems

long now at 1425 with stop sub 1400…seems righteous..
1625 not unreasonable tp.

gl gt.

Paris ib 16:36 GMT January 22, 2015
Treasury Selling
Reply   
Does anyone have a handle on the consistency and size of the selling going in the Treasury market? It looks like trouble brewing but I don't have details or background.

dc CB 16:34 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

a recent CB Stox market intervention...

Emini

Paris ib 16:30 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

Democracy revisited as a pre fascist police state. And shut up otherwise they can charge with offences against the State. Oh and did I mention that they want to censor the internet? Well that's a surprise for such a friendly and open environment.

dc CB 16:28 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

They are called "fees", they are not "Taxes"

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:28 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

The indirect taxes always go up but that is mainly for local and state governments. They also have cameras at intersections that nab you if you go through when light has turned red or do not make a full stop before turning right.

There is one county that was nabbing cars in school zones, even on main streets if you did not slow down. I know someone who got 8 tickets at $85 per ticket before the first notice arrived.

The Federal government ran a guns and butter policy to finance the post-9/11 defense spending.

Paris ib 16:27 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

As for the control issue. That is another level altogether. All bank operations are reported back to the authorities. It's freaky. Have you flown lately? Jesus. No suncream people, no water, bit of friendly frisking. Italy is worse. Buy a car over 200 cc and enjoy your friendly tax audit. And it Italy that really is friendly. Thank you Monti. That's one very popular person. It's illegal to carry cash (over 1000 euros)....

Paris ib 16:23 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

JM - seriously? Here all the taxes are going through the roof. No price falls, though petrol has come off a bit (big deal). Took the autoroute the other day. Toll up 30 percent on last time. I think low inflation? Like: in which universe? You guys aren't getting that? Or only in health care? We got postal charges up, new taxes, higher taxes, stamp duty up......

PAR 16:15 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

The hedonic inflation calculation has changed the game .Whatever happens they find a way to calculate so that there is no inflation while your money buys less every .year

london red 16:11 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

with 11460 gone, tp taken down from abv 11540 to 11475. held 11460 for a while, mkt wont let those buyers off hook unless price to move higher still. so its either 11367 or 11475

NY JM 16:11 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

ib, here they go to war and don't raise taxes. First time in history that guns and butter policy did not stoke inflation.

PAR 16:10 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

In a communist plan economy leaders allocate capital where they want and the market can not sanction them. In the end all the capital is lost .

But in the end we are all death .

HK Kevin 16:09 GMT January 22, 2015
sold nzd/usd

tokyo ginko 15:03 GMT 01/22/2015
close nzd marches 0.7478

Ginko, I begin to fall in love with the AUD and NZD twin starting from today.

Paris ib 16:07 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

European bonds rallying. U.S. bonds still seeing selling. DAX at a new record. S and P hanging in there.

It seems to me we have totally lost control of our 'leaders'. They go to war, they raise taxes, they increase controls, they muck around with interest rates, they cut services.... and they tell us it's all for our own good and we know that's not true but we haven't been able to stop them. Democracy has totally failed.

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Crude slammed on another massive build.

PAR 16:02 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

The stock market in his beloved Italy is up more than 3% .
Drgahi will receive a Ferrari for his bold actions with others people money .

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +10.1 vs. +2.500 exp vs. +5.300 prev.
Gasoline: +0.600 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +3.170 prev.
Distillates: -3.300 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +2.930 prev.
Cap/Util: 85.5% vs. 90.0% exp vs. 91.00% prev.




Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 15:59 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

Bund yields continue to fall today so how far down does frontrunning ECB purchases take yields -- AND where will ECB find ~90 bio eur worth of German FI?

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-216 vs. -220 exp vs. -131 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 15:29 GMT January 22, 2015
pln
Reply   
eurpln dip to 4.24/5 worth a buy as chf problem is currently understated and wont go away with chf staying bid vs pln.

PAR 15:25 GMT January 22, 2015
Russia
Reply   
Ruble up 2% .

dc CB 15:24 GMT January 22, 2015
dkk

And from the source:

Effective from 23 January 2015, Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rate on certificates of deposit is reduced by 0.15 percentage point. The lending rate, discount rate and the current account rate are unchanged.

The interest rate reduction follows Danmarks Nationalbank's purchase of foreign exchange in the market.

Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates are:
Lending rate: 0.05 per cent
Certificate of deposit rate: -0.35 per cent
Current account rate: 0.00 per cent
Discount rate: 0.00 per cent

Danish Central Bank Just Cut Rates For A Second Time This Week; Intervenes In Market To Preserve Peg

GVI Forex Blog 15:15 GMT January 22, 2015 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP/CN - flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, CA- CPI, US- flash PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators, COT Report

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 23, 2015

GVI Forex 15:12 GMT January 22, 2015
dkk

LS- thanks for posting that!

GVI Forex john 15:12 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS



January 22, 2015 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 23, 2015. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP/CN - flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, CA- CPI, US- flash PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators, COT Report

  • Far East: JP/CN - flash PMI
  • Europe: EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales
  • North America: CA- CPI US- flash PMI, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators, COT Report.


Chicago LS 15:10 GMT January 22, 2015
dkk
Reply   
denmark cuts to -.35 from -.2

tokyo ginko 15:08 GMT January 22, 2015
nzdjpy

cost nzdjpy @ 90.19

close today @ 88.87

interest cost more than profit..

Paris ib 15:07 GMT January 22, 2015
BoJ and ECB QE

John - it's all theatre, isn't it? Sad it's sunk to this.

ottawa ottawa 15:06 GMT January 22, 2015
EURJPY

new level to watch for is 1.1436-33, should hold for a good run up

tokyo ginko 15:03 GMT January 22, 2015
sold nzd/usd

close nzd marches 0.7478

gt all

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Consumer Confidence preliminary January 2015





ALERT
-8.5 vs. -10.5 vs. -10.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

NY JM 14:56 GMT January 22, 2015
EURJPY

EURJPY trading 134.xx is pressuring EURUSD along with other weak EUR crosses. New low at 11455 suggests 1.1450 is the level (options?) that needs to hold as there is little below it.

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT January 22, 2015
BoJ and ECB QE

I wonder if the ECB moved to 60bl/mo from 50/mo not to disappoint the markets. Also the end point of QE to me is jumbled. Is it until Sept 2016 or unlimited duration? he said both.

Paris ib 14:46 GMT January 22, 2015
BoJ and ECB QE
Reply   
Moves by the BoJ and the ECB towards QE are aimed at saving the USD or at least at moving the USD exchange rate higher against the JPY and the EURO. The BoJ did very well at getting the USD/JPY off 80.00. The game has moved on a bit since then. The market as a whole is already long USDs. International confidence in the U.S. administration is not high and capital inflows have stopped. This won't change that.

This is an attempt to manipulate market prices and it's doomed to failure in the longer run. IMVHO

This really has nothing to do with inflation / deflation or economic stimulus.

GVI Forex 14:40 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

ECB:
-- No exchange rate target
-- No comment on SNB. Never comment on other central banks

PAR 14:40 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi
Reply   
DRAGHI: SO FAR WE SEE NO BUBBLES

Neither did Alan or Ben.

Ich habe es nicht gewusst .

GVI Forex 14:39 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Draghi reiterates exchange rate is not a policy tool.

Low was 1.1465 vs. last week's 1.1460 low.

PAR 14:35 GMT January 22, 2015
EURJPY
Reply   
Long EURJPY at 135.00.

gc sf 14:34 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

PAR - the only crisis these days is when the Dow drops 250 points

london red 14:34 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

some option related buying going on here. partly will disappear after cut in half an hour.

GVI Forex john 14:32 GMT January 22, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   
DE 10-yr 0.447% -7.4bp
DAX +58

US- 10-yr 1.908% +3.5bp
S&P +13

gc sf 14:31 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

yeah Red ... buyers got to buy here and try for a bottom around the 60 mark .. otherwise they risk 1.1350

dc CB 14:29 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

IMHO, the EU went to an open ended QE because things are really much worse -- in the Euro Banks -- than anyone would believe.

If it started to unravel there would be NO HELP coming from the US as in 2008. Politically it would be impossible. With the Pres election cycle and the Repubs in control of Congress the possibility of another Hank Paulson Gun to The Head $750Bln Blank Check -- though this time it would be $1.5Trilliion, is ZERO.

So it is the ECB's--AKA the European middle classes turn to carry the water for the Banksters--and have their remaining savings decimated.

PAR 14:26 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

I am an expert there are no bubbles . Remember Bernanke there is no housing crisis.

london red 14:26 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

on break of 11460 mkt should not rebound back abv 60 if intent on going down.

GVI Forex john 14:24 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

QE:
- will purchase bonds with negative yields
- No special rules for Greece

london red 14:23 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

better to be stay short with a suitable stop. people have been waiting for a rebound since 125. today, after the initial fluctuation its been a steady drift lower. abv 11540 risks a retrace and my tp is abv there. as for greece elections cant expect/blame greeks for voting for change, but that will hardly help the euro rebound.

ottawa ottawa 14:23 GMT January 22, 2015
EURUSD

Exit quick profit...next target 14.1455 loading again lower if happens

PAR 14:20 GMT January 22, 2015
EURUSD
Reply   
Long EUR at 1.1470 .

gc sf 14:18 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

the real issue being long EUR is simply you absolutely have to have it bounce at some point back above 1.1550

because on that "long" side of the market you have weekend risk / election risk... so you need some sort of cushion in your book.

PAR 14:17 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

Program aimed at helping the European banks cope with problems of financial instability and low growth . Has nothing to do with fighting deflation.

london red 14:17 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

in terms of opportunity cost its not commercially viable for banks to lend to individuals or smes for that matter. but more money to fuel risk and show goes on for now as far as mkts are concerned. real world is another matter. coming up to 11460

Hillegom Purk 14:16 GMT January 22, 2015
e/u
Reply   
First long again, now 11477, e/u. 11440/11420/11400 will follow if seen.
Good luck.

NY JM 14:16 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work

Difference between Fed and ECB QE.

Bernanke was betting on the wealth effect from rising stocks to boost the economy.

Europeans have less invested in stocks so less of a wealth effect.

Without banks loosening loan criteria, QE is like pissing in the wind. US banks are still tight in their lending as an example.

My economics professor must be rolling in his grave now that printing money has become mainstream policy.

ottawa ottawa 14:13 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

filled on 1.1475 and now what ??????

Paris ib 14:13 GMT January 22, 2015
They didn't take a VOTE !!
Reply   
Majority view but NO VOTE !! So they set the grounds for the break up of the Euro ???

Maribor 14:12 GMT January 22, 2015
volatility
Reply   
Curent volatility on daily level ~5% on EURUSD, 2-3 % on sone other pairs...

Paris ib 14:11 GMT January 22, 2015
How QE is supposed to work
Reply   
Why QE will work according to Draghi:
- banks will have more incentive to lend (oh really?)
- it will have an impact on inflationary expectations (prove that and in any case so what?)

That's it? That's why QE will work. What a complete joke.

Draghi saves the USD but U.S. bonds are still getting sold off.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:11 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

As posted on GVI Forex:

ECB
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT 01/22/2015 - My Profile
Mario looks like he aged 5 years this week. Speaking is Very robotic. No big surprises, no buy the rumor sell the fact reaction, nothing today that will change bearish forecasts.

Otherwise, 1.15 (needs to hold or downside pressures build) and 1.16 (bearish while below) are both pivotal.

FW CS 14:10 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Any euro close below 1.1538 today on daily techs signal that this was all a continuation pattern and downtrend to resume.

london red 14:07 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

slowly moving lower. given the significance of the monetary action a similar move is required on euro otherwise it shows relative strength for a rebound. it needs to at least take out 11460 today or risks a short covering rebound. 11367 has been mentioned as an interim tgt if 11460 breached.

Paris ib 14:05 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

The Germans are right.

PAR 14:05 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

SENIOR GERMAN CONSERVATIVE LAWMAKER MICHELBACH SAYS ECB IS MOVING FURTHER AND FURTHER BEYOND ITS MANDATE

hk ooozmeeh 14:05 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

Merkel - ECB action should not replace govt action

Paris ib 14:02 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Jeez these guys. Once Central Banks were 'fighting inflation' now they want "an improvement in inflation", meaning they want prices to rise more. Why? No-one asks why. Incomes are stagnant and any rise in prices will crush demand. But this type of double talk is seen as legitimate Central Bank speak.

PAR 14:02 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

If you cannot convince , confuse !

Maribor 14:02 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Bankers will continue to support Ponzi monetary system untill it will not be possible to do so. What if they support QE (and support even more) and there is no inflation? Money is generated through credit creation and if there is not enough credit creation, there must me QE to support Ponzi...or Ponzi fail.

PAR 14:01 GMT January 22, 2015
Fiscal policy
Reply   
ECB now also in charge of European fiscal policy .

dc CB 14:00 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

Starting tonite, a Six Part Mini Series DocuDrama

What's A Gammy To Do!

dc CB 13:49 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

QE: to continue until there is a "sustained improvement in inflation".

We will continue to pour gasoline on this fire until it goes out.

PAR 13:49 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

European QE unlimited in time and in amount . Equities and bankers go wild .Thank you Draghi .

hk ooozmeeh 13:48 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

2015.01.22 15:47:03 *Draghi: Sizeable Balance Sheet Increase Will Further Ease Monetary Stance DJ Newswires

dc CB 13:43 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi



WmBanzai7

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

QE: to continue until there is a "sustained improvement in inflation".

hk ooozmeeh 13:42 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

60B euro

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

QE: EUR 60 bl/mo until Sept 2016

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Note 4 week average (red line) in weekly jobless

pisa phile500 13:39 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi

cnbc works

london red 13:37 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB

for presser use your ipads thats what they are for!

looks like still arguing over details

PAR 13:37 GMT January 22, 2015
Draghi
Reply   
What a mess , he can not even start on time .

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims running above estimates. Economic harbinger?




Click on chart for over ten-year history


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

pisa phile500 13:35 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB

yes too many access?

PAR 13:34 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB
Reply   
ECB website has crashed ?

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
307K vs. 300K exp. vs. 316K (r317K) prev.
Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 13:27 GMT January 22, 2015
BCB
Reply   
“As broadly expected, the BCB’s Copom hiked rates by 50bps by unanimous decision at last night’s meeting, bringing the key Selic rate to 12.25%. The post-meeting communique was very brief, and omitted key phrases seen in the December communique.”

“As new Finance Minister Levy begins to implement what will be a broad based adjustment that is likely to ultimately be supportive of the BCB’s inflation targeting agenda, in the near term the adjustment higher of regulated prices will exacerbate what are likely to be already high inflation prints over coming months.”

“Given these changes to language, and in conjunction with the BCB’s repeated comments that they will do “whatever it takes” in order to have inflation converge to 4.5% in 2016, we fully recognize that the risk to our current forecast is that the BCB’s current cycle is both longer and more aggressive that we’ve been anticipating.”

“We do continue to expect that a more contractionary fiscal impulse will be supportive of the BCB’s goals, and that the Copom will leave rates elevated for a prolonged period of time, rather than looking to cut in the face of weak growth or the first inflation print that suggests an inflection point and the first signs that inflation is on a declining path.”

ottawa 13:24 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

long shot trade...buy long at 1.1475 stop 1.1395

london red 13:23 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

chris i have posted some levels a bit lower down. covered all bases as far as reuters survey went 108-120

PAR 13:19 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

Nothing decided yet , he still has 10 minutes .

GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

ECB Webcast Link

Webcast of the press conference 22 January 2015

London Chris 13:16 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

Any suggestions for EUR$ sell levels>I have 1.1740-00 if reached but not a great hope it will be seen.

PAR 13:12 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

Draghi wants the glory . Paroles,paroles , paroles rien que des mots ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNa1wYvYjK4

london red 13:07 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt

i hope he chooses to use long sentences as mkt will swing on every word few words.

PAR 13:04 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB Cluster Announcemt
Reply   
Looks like they dont want to put anything on paper. Draghi will explain and later they can say he was misunderstood.

Prague viktor 13:03 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

1,185 first viies

hk ooozmeeh 12:56 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

two surprises for the week SNB and Cad central bank..can Dhragi beat the two...lets wait

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

We warned about illiquidity in the markets.

I have a 1.1590 to 1.1651 range on my data feed on no news.

Amman wfakhoury 12:53 GMT January 22, 2015
EURUSD
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:31 GMT 01/22/2015
SELL now 11636 tp 11590.
add sell limit @ 11680 tp 11638
-------------
11590 reached

Tallinn viies 12:50 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   
so? which one first 1,1450 of 1,1850?

PAR 12:50 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Something new, anounce not everything at the same time to play a little bit more with the markets . What a mess .

GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

No ECB rate cuts were expected.

So far we have learned nothing. This is usual behavior.

Brisbane Flip 12:49 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Yeah the ECB is going to write out cheques for 500 euros for everyone in Europe to stimulate the economy - hahaha

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

ECB "Further Monetary Policy measures to be announced at 13:30 GMT"

PAR 12:47 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

No rate cut . Disappointing . But Draghi can hint at lowering at next meeting .

hk ooozmeeh 12:47 GMT January 22, 2015
ECB NONETARY POLICY TO BE ANNOUNCED AT 1330 GMT
Reply   
1330 gmt

jkt abel 12:47 GMT January 22, 2015
Brokers (re. SNB move)

thanks red, they have been around for quite some time and some good services and products, sad if they have to go

london red 12:47 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

so they are still arguing thrashing out details

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:46 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

No change in rates (as expected)

07:45(EU) ECB issues statement: Further monetary policy measures to be published at 1330GMT

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

European Central Bank (ECB) January 2015



   MORE; EZ and German Charts

NEWS ALERT

Refi Rate Steady at 0.05%
Marginal Lending Rate steady at 0.30%
Deposit Rate steady at -0.20%


Press Release: ECB Decision



TTN: Live News Special Offer





Amman wfakhoury 12:31 GMT January 22, 2015
EURUSD
Reply   
SELL now 11636 tp 11590.
add sell limit @ 11680 tp 11638

london red 12:30 GMT January 22, 2015
Brokers (re. SNB move)

IG took a small hit about 30m i think. but running as was now. chf fx options offered again from today i think.

london red 12:28 GMT January 22, 2015
Forex Trading Outlook for January 22, 2015

levels
11640 prev low 11672/80 200hma/prev high 11743/54 euro opening/prev low 11870/76 prev low/high 11976/96 gap. 12129 50% fib
11544 61.8 fib of recent down up, 11460 prev low 11246/06 76.4 and 61.8 lt fibs, 10886 prev low.

Hong Kong billy893 12:24 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

Stay sideline is the wise decision.

hk ooozmeeh 12:20 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

very obvious... a lot of profit taking before the data

jkt abel 12:20 GMT January 22, 2015
Brokers (re. SNB move)
Reply   
anyone got any news about IG Markets?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:18 GMT January 22, 2015
Forex Trading Outlook for January 22, 2015
Reply   

Seat belts fastened.

Market is trying for a buy the rumor sell the fact reaction but not many obvious levels to go for on top.

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for January 22, 2015

london red 12:10 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

reuters survey has as far as 108 and 120 but most 113-118 for todays range. if they put the hammer down or do little then those extremes may be approached. if announcement deemed within consensus than watch for a swing off flash high/low. in such a scenario 112/11250 fibs might contain until conference. an announcement sketchy on detail may fall into this scenario as mkt waits for the conference for more meat.

HK [email protected] 11:46 GMT January 22, 2015
USD/CHF
Reply   

After about 24hrs decided to close the position(opened at 0.97).

SNB bankers may go crazy, causing unexpected moves.

Seems that we have big banks with big account losses, and so many valuable customers(not bottom feeders like us).
One may expect the unexpected, so now sideline.

GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

EURUSD
Neutral with day's high and low well contained within
R1 1.1671
and
S1 1.1533

no clear day trading bias

USDJPY
Same
R1 118.70GBPUSD
S1 117.06



GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT January 22, 2015
RISK OFF: Awaiting ECB Decision. Focus On Its Details

One additional point, I think the ECB leaked the outline of its QE program yesterday to dampen the market reaction to the news following the SNB fiasco one week ago today.

One "fault line" to think about is the Danish Krone peg to the EUR. These currency pegs always end the same way.

GVI Forex john 11:28 GMT January 22, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems
Reply   


EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT January 22, 2015
RISK OFF: Awaiting ECB Decision. Focus On Its Details

PAR- good point. I was just playing out possible market reactions to the ECB announcement. My focus was on the duration of the program which could range from one to two years. Frankly I would have preferred the Fed open ended approach that would have ended with a gradual taper.

As for the market reaction, I would not be surprised to see a volatile reaction even to as expected data. I agree that these volatile swings are due to lessening market liquidity. We can thank the various bank regulators for the lack of liquidity (and also the SNB) for actions taken to "protect us".

Bottom line, I recommend traders be cautious on this announcement and leverage DEFENSIVELY until liquidity returns to the markets.

GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT January 22, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

UK CBI Industrial Output Trends December 2014

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

+4 vs. +5 exp. vs.+ 5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 10:48 GMT January 22, 2015
RISK OFF: Awaiting ECB Decision. Focus On Its Details

Liquidity drying up completely , a little bit as last Thursday with the SNB .
You can no longer trade on fundamentals . Insider trading and to a lesser extend technical trading are the only tools left comrades.

Whatever the politbureau (ECB) decides will move markets .

GVI Forex Blog 10:32 GMT January 22, 2015
RISK OFF: Awaiting ECB Decision. Focus On Its Details
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: EZ- ECB Decision, Consumer Confidence, US- Weekly Jobs, Weekly Energy

RISK OFF: Awaiting ECB Decision. Focus On Its Details

GVI Forex john 10:30 GMT January 22, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

22 January-- 10:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. Today finally will see the announcement of the ECB's Quantitative Easing program for the Eurozone. While it has not officially been announced, it appears its outline has already been leaked in the press. Starting in March, the European National Banks will be buy (in total) EUR 50 bn/mo in their government's national debt. This program COULD extend through the end of 2016. In forex, the USD is modestly lower. The EUR is weaker on its crosses as well. The EURCHF is trading just below parity. European equity markets are mostly lower. They are in a RISK OFF posture.

In Far East trade, equities closed up. Key European 10-yr yields are up. Peripheral yields are mixed. U.S. equity futures and the10-yr yield are up.





The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

PAR 10:29 GMT January 22, 2015
Russian Ruble
Reply   
In search for yiel Euroeand investors slowly heading for Ruble as European sanctions have been lifted and/or are largely circumvented.

nw kw 10:04 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

stranger is eur can fund S&P

GVI Forex 09:59 GMT January 22, 2015
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KL KL 09:49 GMT January 22, 2015
Brokers raising Margin
Reply   
Invast Apparently Raise margin too ..... apparently quite Big in Japan/Asia...anyone use them care to share?? No news on them.... Wonder if it is okay to raise this here on this forum....I hope it is OK?? just Google and DYOR..... sometimes its not nice and sometimes its like heads up...and heads up can cause brokers to go bust like Suggesting a Bank is in trouble because of raising rates to attract money ......while people are quietly withdrawing..... a complex world we live in....

PAR 09:30 GMT January 22, 2015
Monetary Policy
Reply   
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Professor David Miles in his speech "What Can Monetary Policy Do?" at the University of Edinburgh, elaborated on the strengths and limitations of monetary policy.

His arguments on inflation expectations,

"One should not expect a central bank to be fully able to offset the impacts of such huge swings in commodity prices on current inflation...this is why having a flexible inflation target which…allows policy to be set so as to return it to target over several quarters...makes sense,

On Monetary policy,

Miles argued, "lot more than is implied by many economic models". By influencing short term spending decisions through cash flow effects, the influence of monetary policy extends beyond its impact on expectations.

On importance of fiscal policy,

"monetary policy cannot be expected to achieve price stability in isolation from things fiscal, monetary policy has fiscal consequences and unless fiscal policy is set in a way which is consistent with the aim of monetary policy, those aims will not be met."

He further added, "Flexible inflation targeting is not inconsistent with attaching significant weight to short term fluctuations in output and employment,"

He concluded,

"Either those other targets are consistent with an inflation target – in which case achieving the inflation target is likely to require that output and employment over the medium term do not drift away from them – or they are not. If they are consistent then there is nothing much to be gained by adding them to the inflation target."

PAR 09:27 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Prince Andrew . Another new definition of the word "SEX"
à la Clinton ?

gc sf 09:26 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

that UK Broker that went bust - people still haven't gotten their money back -- as it has to go through a whole process via accountants first .. and then any shortfall through the guarantee fund which would start after that.

so if you see some issues with your Broker then best move quickly before withdrawals get frozen otherwise your looking at somewhere in the 1-3 month range for the money.

gc sf 09:22 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

the only real reason I suggested the range maybe wider than our usual 150-200 points - was with a thinner market and the weekend approaching

people's ability to hold the other side would be more limited than usual.

Personally I am only running strategies in AUDNZD + AUDCAD myself until Tuesday.

KL KL 09:21 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Market attention is squarely on the Euro area today,.... ha ha ha...LOL

I think Market Attention on Prince Andrew denying those allegations.... ...His speech should move markets...just like Fed CB IMF Japan Germany speaks......nothing matters these days....just some reasons for the coming move.....in Forex.... and whatever....Words move market...Just watch when the Prince speaks.....a delayed reaction of 2, 3 4 hours perhaps...and I have covered the bases and my reason for the coming move in Forex....LOL

gc sf 09:19 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

the ones I know have changed requirements so far

fxcm
fx pig
ic markets
fx open

there's probably more - you should check your inbox to see if there is anything from your Broker.

PAR 09:18 GMT January 22, 2015
QE - NO CURE FOR NOTHING
Reply   
As BIS' Caruana has noted with regard to QE in the USA: “The Americans were quite aggressive in forcing recognition of losses and there was a very rapid recapitalisation of the banks. This is why it was successful. The role of quantitative easing is an open question.” We would add that the forced "recognition of losses" was in no small part due to the political football that was TARP, while in the UK the path to recovery was predicated on the bail-out of the clearing banks and the Funding for Lending Scheme. As Lord King noted earlier this week: "There are quite serious disequilibria both between and within economies that, for good economic reasons, are depressing demand. .. Simply lowering rates even further or adding more monetary stimulus is unlikely to solve that problem... We have had the biggest monetary stimulus that the world must have ever seen, and we still have not solved the problem of weak demand. The idea that monetary stimulus after six years ... is the answer doesn't seem (right) to me." Indeed, one might well look across to the largest QE, or rather QQE, programme in Japan and examine where Japanese CPI stands excluding the impact of the sales tax hike, and its growth performance, and also suggest that the "CPI rationale" is mendacity of the most despicable form.

Paris ib 09:13 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Monetary policy by gossip.

Good grief.

GVI Forex 09:12 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Market attention is squarely on the Euro area today, amid heightened expectations that the ECB will finally join the ranks of the world’s other central banks and sanction QE. There are unconfirmed reports that the ECB will announce a €50bn a month programme, focused on sovereign bonds, from March through to end 2016. The monetary policy decision statement is due at 12:45GMT followed by President Draghi’s press conference at 13:30GMT.

The rumours raise the prospect that the size of the programme will be larger than the €500-700bn range we have in our base forecast. While confirmation is likely to be viewed positively, market reaction is likely to hang on what the ECB decides regarding risk-sharing. In this regard, yesterday’s rumours raise the likelihood that national central banks will be required to carry most of the risk on their own balance sheets. This could potentially marr the overall effectiveness of the programme. Additionally, we expect the deposit rate to be kept at -0.2%, with a small risk of a rise to 0%. Similarly, we see low risk of the ECB amending the details of the second phase of the TLTRO programme starting in March.

Lloyds Bank Economic Outlook

jkt abel 09:11 GMT January 22, 2015
Asia

gc sf, is it just fxcm increasing margin requirement? which other brokers that you know who are doing this too? TIA

london red 09:08 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

re range, daily options priced in about 1 and half fig move.
for anyone looking for more, 11760 calls and upwards looking cheap cover at about 27 points and down. anything above 118 is pennies.

nw kw 09:08 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

swiss gold testing lower fibs

nw kw 09:01 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

gbp and aud in same boat ,world still on qe, its gold breaking past upper fibs

nw kw 08:54 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

eur needs to beet jpy

Paris ib 08:54 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

The DAX is trading at record highs with a new record possible today.

nw kw 08:52 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

and dax is new s&p for dividends

nw kw 08:46 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

using usa/can cats rate down?

Paris ib 08:39 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

Note the level of hysteria surrounding today's ECB meeting. The market is setting itself up for some unrealistic scenarios. That is: Euro bears are likely to be disappointed. Note also that there is a possibility of real EURO buying coming through. Note margin requirements have been multiplied by five (at least) in the brokers. So while we have the possibility of a significant market squeeze higher in the Euro the cost of going LONG Euro is now significantly higher than the previous cost of shorting the Euro. Upshot? A squeeze up in the Euro post the ECB meeting is a real possibility but the Euro ascent will be slower than it ordinarily would have been given the change in margin requirements.

nw kw 08:35 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

its avoiding parking lot siddurim needs time

Prague viktor 08:21 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

if they will rise to zero thats meaning the euro will fly up to the sky???

GVI Forex Blog 06:53 GMT January 22, 2015 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 2.2% V 3.0% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 3.2% V 3.4% PRIOR (5-month low) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX:

TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: PBoC renews liquidity injections for the first time in a year; Euro steady ahead of ECB - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:28 GMT January 22, 2015
AceTrader Jan 22: Intra-Day News and Views ( USD/JPY ) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jan 2015 02:05GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite yesterday's brief but sharp drop to 117.18 after BOJ's rate decision that it maintained its monetary policy, the greenback rebounded strongly to 118.17 in NY on active short-covering, suggesting the pullback from Tuesday's high at 118.87 has possibly ended there.
Bids are now reported at 117.80-70 n more at 117.50 with stops only seen below yesterday's low at 117.18.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 118.15-20 and 118.40.

In other news, reports showed that margin traders in Japan raised bets the yen would fall against the dollar to a record.
Positions betting against the yen were 522,856 contracts on January 15, the biggest net shorts since Tokyo Financial Exchange Inc. Click 365 began collecting the data in 2006.

Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's Manufacturing PMI, Australia's HIA New Home Sales, China's MNI Business Sentiment, Italy's Industrial Orders, Industrial sales, Retail Sales, U.K.'s PSNB, PSNCR, CBI Trends (Orders), ECB's rate decision, U.S. Jobless Claims, Monthly Home Price, Markit Manufacturing PMI, euro zone's Consumer Confidence.

Tallinn viies 02:03 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   
people are talking if ECB fires such a "massive" missile then there is no need to keep depo rate negative. ecb should hike depo rate back to zero. as they plan to buy goverment bonds and give bank cash what they need to deposit in ecb with negative rates. so doesnt help again...

gc sf 01:16 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd

I'd even say we could see

1.1350-1.1850 given liquidity will be thinner than normal + if we don't see that today then by Monday after the elections probably then.

Nikkei down 120 from the Open pushed $yen back down.

Tallinn viies 00:54 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   
there is a big chance today we may see eurusd moves more than 250 pips today..
I wouldnt be suprised if it moves even 375 pips. number my projection indivates to me

Tallinn viies 00:49 GMT January 22, 2015
eurusd
Reply   

ECB now running on 1.1 trillion euro fuel injection
21-Jan-2015

The ECB is planning a 1.1 trillion euro injection to fight deflation, over 22 months
But the ECB Governing Council still has to debate the move
Monetary policy for the diverse Eurozone nations is by default a compromise

By Stephen Pope

Almost as a signal to the markets that Mario Draghi is trying to be a pro-active ECB President it was announced on Wednesday, January 21, that the European Central Bank is to undertake a major effort to steer the Eurozone economy away from the rocks where the Lorelei called “Deflation” lays in wait (Lorelei is the name of a feminine water spirit, similar to mermaids or Rhine maidens).

The released report suggested that the ECB would commence in March to open an asset acquisition programme worth 50 billion euro a month from March 2015 through to December next year – that is, for 22 months, for a full value of 1.1 trillion euros.

nnn

Draghi's bold plan to fight Eurozone deflation may end up as a compromise worked out at the last minute in today's Governing Council meeting. Photo; Thinkstock




Beware the debate

ECB President Draghi cannot be assured of being home and dry just yet, as this proposed programme will be the subject of a strident discussion in the chamber of the Governing Council. It may undergo several alternations ahead of a final decision that can be discharged to the public markets and press at 14:30 CET today.

Following months of denial and pointing to medium-term forecasts that claim there would be no slide into deflation, Draghi is trying to convince the markets that he is leading the charge to remould the ECB as a central bank that can be every inch as aggressive as the Federal Reserve.

However, whereas any decent opposition that the Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke or Janet Yellen faced in Washington DC was relatively muted, Draghi still has to overcome the objections of the German central bank or Bündesbank (BUBA) and its President, Jens Weidmann and executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger.

The November 2014 press conference saw Draghi look diminished, as he was not able to get his full view past the hawks of the Governing Council. However, by December, he was decidedly more aggressive. Perhaps he has finally found the courage to stare down BUBA and let the opposition axis led by Weidmann and Lautenschlaeger know that the ECB is in charge – and not BUBA – and that he is in charge of the ECB.

The BUBA delegates have consistently argued that QE within the Eurozone is not needed and reduces government incentives to make structural reforms. However, there comes a time when even the most vocal supporter of much-needed structural rejigging must see that there are certain nation states that will simply not play by the rules.

At that stage one either has to say that the game is up and the euro project should be scraped , or – as is going to happen – there has to be some accommodation for the ailing economy from the monetary policy side.

Today is for talking shop

If BUBA accepts that asset purchases are going to happen, then they can at least look to have an influence in the architecture of such a Eurozone style system as the ECB balance sheet is expanded to 3 trillion euros, as it was in early 2012.

There certainly is the scope for the expansion as the current level of “Total Assets” currently measures 2.2 trillion euros. However, 2 billion euros will evaporate in the next few weeks as long-term loans mature.

ECB Bal Sheet

Source: ECB

So as the Governing Council take their seats for today's meeting, the tenor of the discussion will be shaped by the point and counterpoint over how the risks involved in the asset purchase scheme can be shared fairly across the region’s 19 national central banks (NCBs) and contained within separate sovereign boundaries. One thing that BUBA will not countenance is pooling or mutualisation of risk.

The Dutch believe that such a decision should be taken by elected politicians, not unelected central bankers. Oh my. One can see how the blue touch paper meant to ignite and launch the QE rocket skywards is already looking a little soggy.

Policy compromise likely

My views on the inadequacy of policy making at the ECB are well known. Everything is left to the last minute. Monetary policy for such a diverse group of nations and interests is by default a compromise, which itself again by default pleases no one except the bland middle.

An example of how pathetic it is to be using the Thursday Governing council meeting to thrash out fine detail is to be seen in the fact that the dispute over containing risk bubbled to the surface this week at a conference in Dublin. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan, remarked that having national central banks buy government bonds would be ineffective.

In response, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that :“the discussion is how to design it in a way that works, in a way that makes sense … If this is a discussion about how best to pool sovereign risk in Europe, and how to make the pooling of sovereign risk take a step forward in an environment where the governments themselves have decided not to do it, then this is not the right discussion.”

All this and we still await news on what assets will be acquired, if sovereign only, then will it be the debt of all 19 members, or only AAA and AA paper? What about other securities, such as corporate bonds? I think that is folly, as it lacks liquidity and depth, but apparently plain vanilla corporate debt is on the agenda.

It makes one question if asset purchases really will really start being acquired on March 1.

Hold on though. If Draghi comes out at the press conference and lays out, with full transparency, the assets that will be included in the programme, does that simply invite the market to go and snap up such paper and so drive yields lower before the ECB is ready to actually buy assets itself?

Please do not tell me that this is the plan and, like OMT, that QE will actually be a mirage.

As always, I wait to be underwhelmed. I will pen a follow up note after Draghi delivers his definitive statement. Or maybe does not.

– Edited by Robert Ryan

Stephen Pope is managing partner at Spotlight Ideas. Follow Stephen or post your comment below to engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform.

Stephen Pope Stephen PopeManaging PartnerSpotlight Ideas

HK [email protected] 00:23 GMT January 22, 2015
Chart gazing
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I suspect, that USD/CHF, is eventually targeting the .81-.82 range.

Per my suspicion that CHF will strengthen more compared to USD, than to the Euro, it means, Euro too is a candidate for a drop compared to the USD.

HK [email protected] 00:17 GMT January 22, 2015
Common sense


War purpose is, that the stronger warriors which are more fit, will kill their weaker enemies and rape their women, so the off springs will be too better genetically fit.

But since rape by soldiers, at this time is regarded a war crime, the main purpose of war has been removed, and by now, try to get your enemy ladies, by showing them cash.




GVI Forex 00:02 GMT January 22, 2015
NFA Increases Minimum Security Deposit for Forex Transactions
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The NFA has issued a notice to members that it is increasing the minimum security deposit for three currencies. This is presumably a result of the SNB shocker that produced extreme volatility in the forex market following the decion to stop defending the EURCHF 1.20 floor. The NFA notice to members is posted as follows:

NFA Increases Minimum Security Deposit for Forex Transactions

 




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