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Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2015

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Livingston nh 23:05 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

JP - anytime these folks start changing the goal post (alternative??) I get queasy -- exports he cites here's the deal Exports and Imports declined (i.e., TOTAL trade was lower) so we await December figures -- as I mentioned orders down inventory draws up because of oil price (deflation expectations, oh no!!)

Productivity = deflation // that's the way it works since Prometheus

uk rg 22:50 GMT January 30, 2015
observation

GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

hopefully more so than this week

dc CB 22:42 GMT January 30, 2015
Deep Thoughts

"we need to be sure that we're not creating instant millionaires, people who don't deserve to be millionaires"

Pres of the Maryland Senate, quoted on NPR's All Things Considered in a segment about the Maryland Legislature as they debate the Legalization of MaryJUUUWanna, during this year session.

Thomas V. Mike Miller, Jr., President of the Maryland Senate since 1987

Mike

uk rg 22:42 GMT January 30, 2015
observation
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

observation
last weeks closing candle was 22 pips below monthly s3
this weeks closing candle is 36 pips above monthly s3
Would venture next weeks close candle will be green
gt

dc CB 22:18 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

looking forward to the appearance of Oracle, early Monday, for the six week Trend.

GWE


BUY BUY

Livingston nh 22:11 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

John - I'm looking at a much stronger economy (only missed Q4 by 2% on gdp) - the ISM comments from last month showed that expectations of lower prices affected orders and inventory draws -- the analysts (aaargh) are responding to the past // the risk is that they misjudge the Fed (even the Fed doesn't know what it will do) - like driving behind a drunk

BONDS -- money leaving risk perceived (Aaa, BBb) but ignoring simple rate risk -- could get really UGLY by JUNE

Livingston nh 22:01 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

JP fear of ?? - it's a typical flight to quality - stox scare treasurys jump //

GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Look at the headline "RISK OFF". They are buying bonds due to fear about stock prices.

Professional bond traders focus on bond prices, not yields. So when stock prices fall bond prices RISE (lower yields). There is a difference here between "fear" and "calm " expectations for a weakening economy.

Mtl JP 21:54 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

john 21:50 normally cheap cost of money sees stocks rally
what d u think is currently "wrong" that is causing both cost of money and stocks go down at same time ?

dc CB 21:50 GMT January 30, 2015
Deep Thoughts
Reply   
Well, not so Deep.

Hillary Clinton Faces Scrutiny for Use of Private Jets

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-29/hillary-clinton-flew-jets-on-taxpayer-funds-in-senate?hootPostID=b077bb0a4751b2db2ac9be636663e60a

With 4,000 in homeless shelters, D.C. on pace to eclipse record set last year

GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

ugly close in stocks. Should carry over into Asia. Question wiull be what Europe and the U.S. will do.Monday sees an avalanche of PMI's. U.S. bond yields approaching recent lows around 1.60%.

Mtl JP 21:47 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

just had a closer look at the 10-yr yields
US - 1.652
IT - 1.67
haha,
must some all time records being set

Mtl JP 21:40 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

nice pop into the close ... in Gold

GVI Forex john 21:20 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Livingston nh 21:20 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

AND I can't resist the chance to debunk the oil price decline as a tax cut AND increased consumer purchasing power -- the oil price frees more money for other purchases it does NOT increase purchasing power or higher CONSUMPTION (only increased income or lower savings CAN ACHIEVE THIS)

london red 21:16 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CB, well you know repeat customers get done from behind. either you start batting for the other side or you shop around. as for payouts, gone are the days. will you every loophole possible not to pay. seems impossible to insurance against human stupidity these days. believe its a problem if you have staff.

Paris ib 21:16 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CB - welcome to the wonderful world of 'official' disinflation. Same here: everything goes up in leaps and bounds but the people at the Central Bank and the statistics office never seem to notice. And they certainly don't record it!! Falling flat screen television prices wipe out all those pesky real world price increases in stuff we actually use.

dc CB 21:16 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

I got to keep my old policy. But that notice came in November--15% increase. but part of that is age related, as I turn another leaf in the 60's.

Livingston nh 21:11 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Wait until you get your new improved mandated medical insurance premium increase -- maybe premiums stay the same BUT your deductibles double - hmm but it is better insurance right ??

dc CB 21:09 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right

well I just got my 2015 auto insurance renew notice. Up 16.6% from last year. No violations, no accidents, no changes on my part, no reason my premium should have risen 16%.

The nice customer service lady on the phone said: well insurance rates are going up everywhere.

I said: but I'm keep getting told that there is no inflation, 16% rise from you.

She said: it's just...rates are on the rise all over, your rates are just doing a catch up to...to...well rates everywhere.

Livingston nh 21:01 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Just suppose the UoM survey of inflation expectations are close to right -- EVERY treasury yield is well below -- keep in mind the Fed ALWAYS panics

GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 1.659% -103bp
DJ -239
SP-26

GVI Forex john 20:53 GMT January 30, 2015
CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT January 30, 2015
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details




GVI Forex john 20:24 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

DJ -193
S&P -20
10-yr 168.3%, -7.9bp

Livingston nh 20:06 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

whatever it takes!!!

I'll put in my plug for TARIFF rather than gas tax -- keep the jobs here and put OPEC out of business

dc CB 20:03 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

Oh Really. That's what caused it? ISIS...
It wasn't coordinated Stop Run, that took out shorts going back to last Thurday. BANGING THE CLOSE....just slightly illegal...

ISIS

it's a co-inky-dink

GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

nh- I agree I find it hard to see how higher oil prices would help me. I have yet to see my utility costs fall.

london red 20:01 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

brent had a similar 5 pt rally back in oct last year. traded down to new low within 2 weeks. so lets not get carried away. a few religious terrorists on horseback does not a demand create.

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

Now stocks are falling!

Livingston nh 19:50 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

John - there's a great example of conflict of interest at the highest level -- dogooders want higher oil prices but whine about the "evil" ISIS folks

GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

Amman, Jordan (CNN) ISIS militants have attacked Kirkuk in northern Iraq, an effort that might be an earnest attempt to capture the key oil-rich city or perhaps to divert Kurdish troops fighting to capture the Islamist extremist group's stronghold of Mosul

ISIS launches attack on oil-rich northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk

Mtl JP 19:49 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

so now ISIS is ally ? ?

GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

CNBC talking about rumors that ISIS might be on the move in Northern Iraq (Kirkuk). Driving oil prices higher. No solid confirmation yet.

dc CB 19:35 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

JP

Riding the Roller Coaster
dc CB 15:09 GMT
Commodities trade on "supply and Demand" , fundamentals LOL
avg swing 80 pts

WTI

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

wti closes at $48,24 +3.71. Higher crude is a boost to stocks.
higher stocks typically are USD positive.

Mtl JP 19:27 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

dc CB 17:11 your post n link seems to be the rocketfuel that has ignited wti ... up over 2 bux since lol.

no I didnt trade it :-(

Livingston nh 19:26 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News

SPX 15 min bounced off 40 ma so we probably go above yesterday's high in the next hour or so

tokyo ginko 19:24 GMT January 30, 2015
oil
Reply   
oil is enjoying a mini rally for the last 2 hours..

dc CB 19:12 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News

which way will the End of Month 2:15 Express run today?

Need a FED Speaker for a Rally

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News

Asset managers could face new regulation to prevent runs: Fed’s Tarullo

By Greg Robb, Published: Jan 30, 2015 1:32 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—Federal Reserve officials are considering new regulation of the “shadow banking” sector, and specifically new rules to prevent runs in large asset managers, said Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said Friday.

Tarullo said regulators are worried that asset management vehicles hold relatively less liquid assets but allow investors to redeem their interests on short notice.

“There is a risk that in periods of stress, investor redemptions could exhaust available liquidity,” Tarullo said in a speech to a financial stability conference in suburban Washington, D.C.

Under these circumstances, a fund might respond by rapidly selling assets with contagion effects for the financial system that may be amplified by derivative transactions.

Large asset management firms including BlackRock, Fidelity and other companies have been arguing that they don’t pose systemic risks to the financial system. A panel of top regulators, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, last year considered whether to label individual asset managers as systemically important before deciding to focus on risky products and activities instead.

Tarullo suggested that any regulation was at an early stage.

He said that “considerable work” is needed to develop better data on assets under management to fill in “information gaps” that have concerned academics and policy analysts.

“And…we will need tools that will be efficient and effective responses to the risks identified,” he said.

Tarullo added the Fed will also continue to focus on stemming risks of potential runs in the financial market from the short-term wholesale funding market.

The Fed is likely to propose a new rule that will set minimum margins for “securities financing transactions” that involve extending credit to parties that are covered by federal regulation, he said.

The Fed will likely use its authority under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to set this new rule, he added.

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT January 30, 2015
MXN
Reply   
remember when Rubin thought the peso move from 3 to 6 would be a major catastrophe (see Fed transcripts too) - well, about to see a 15 handle

Livingston nh 18:01 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News

Lunchtime rally in SPX to fill this morning's opening gap falters -- I have bund yields below JGB - and Gilts maybe all time lows?? -- GDP deflator neg 0.1% so the weaker than expected "real" GDP got a boost - we'll know more on Monday but the fed's "preferred" inflation measure "core PCE" looks 1.4% (+0.3 above the non-preferred level) so maybe Yellen moves the goal post again

Away from Treasury yields, corps' FI are not faring well -- slowly slowly

dc CB 18:00 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

CHEVRON TO CUT 23% OF PENNSYLVANIA WORKFORCE AMID CRUDE SLUMP

dc CB 17:58 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News

McD reacts to the (sugar) SHAK IPO

McDonald's will now accept selfies and hugs as payment

GVI Forex john 17:57 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

dc CB 17:21 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News



Go Forth and Consume

dc CB 17:11 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

America’s oil giants are beginning to lose money.

For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, ConocoPhillips, the nation’s third-largest oil and gas producer, reported on Thursday that it had lost money — $39 million in the fourth quarter in contrast to a profit of $2.5 billion the year before. And Occidental Petroleum, another large producer in United States shale fields and the Middle East, said it lost $3.4 billion in the quarter, in contrast to a $1.6 billion gain in the same quarter in 2013.

ConocoPhillips and Occidental Post Losses, Reflecting Oil Price Plunge

GVI Forex Blog 17:07 GMT January 30, 2015
Global Markets News
Reply   
Equity markets are not far off their lows as of midday, with all three US indices and all S&P segments seeing losses. Equities are headed for their fourth weekly loss out of the last five week. The miss in GDP is depressing sentiment, while some mixed corporate earnings are not helping things.

TradeTheNews.com US Mid-Session Update: First Look at US Q4 GDP Disappoints

GVI Forex Blog 17:03 GMT January 30, 2015
Week Ahead
Reply   
•Economic data to show US activity remains solid •Bank of England is expected to leave policy unchanged •European data to show signs that economic conditions are improving

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - LABOUR MARKET REPORT TO SHOW US ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REMAINS BUOYANT

GVI Forex john 16:53 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

30 January-- 17:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. Greek bond yields suddenly spiked later in the day Friday as it appeared that the new Greek government will not be cooperative with the Troika as the existing bailout program is being revisited. There are questions about whether %+82bp.they are expecting a Russian bailout instead. Greek 10-yr  11.27&.15%, -30bp). Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) was lower than expected once again. U.S. advance 4Q14 GDP fell short of street expectations increasing +2.7% pa q/q..

Otherwise Markets are trading mostly in a RISK OFF posture heading into the weekend. In forex, the USD is broadly higher in its key relationships. The EUR is lower on its crosses. In Europe, 10-yr bond yields are easier and equities are down. U.S. equities and bond yields are lower.

In Far East trade, equities closed mixed. 10-yr JGB 0.28% -1bp.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

dc CB 16:38 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

Chevron earning conference call hitting the wires

CVX scraping Share Buyback Prm --- low oil prices.

london red 16:29 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

well options (premiums) are certainly optimistic with a 40 pip move priced in. too much for me at this late stage. nimbled on stock options earlier but done both sides there as well, seems after the unusual activity during month, most folk just want a quite session end of month.

HK [email protected] 16:23 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY



The way I see it(chart) one can bet that 117 will be taken out soon(possibly tonight).
All that to target 115-116 range.

Paris ib 16:20 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

CB - so they will get triggered. Maybe not today. Friday is the day that the U.S. has the market to itself for the afternoon. :-)

dc CB 16:17 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

this week's Bank of America rec USD/JPY Long trade gets stopped out below 11725.

Paris ib 16:17 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

There is a lot going on with the USD/JPY and a lot of geopolitics too. I doubt the BoJ can do a thing at this stage.

HK [email protected] 16:14 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY



Just wonder this time if the BOJ cares or not for the rate, or can do nothing about it currently.

HK [email protected] 16:11 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW



Probably very limited allocation for this Sh.Sh IPO.

Paris ib 16:11 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

A break below 117 in USD/JPY would be more interesting than a break below 2000 in the S and P. But the first is likely to trigger the second.

Paris ib 16:08 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

red - I don't think we have enough going on today but I reckon next week we could easily get a break through that level. I doubt a break will bring panic. I still think geopolitics holds the key and although the mainstream media is being a bit quiet the news creeping in is concerning. Escalation? Possibly.

Margin Debt in the U.S.

london red 16:03 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

ib, stocks need to play ball as for now buying the dip working every time. s&p cash needs to give up 2000. should be some big downside if they can drum up enough momentum to take the stops.

Paris ib 16:01 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

A falling USD/JPY will see stocks take another hit. Must check margin debt levels.... margin requirements are going up all over the place. Did that happen in stocks?

SaaR KaL 15:55 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

Intraday
EURUSD Seems a Buy below
1.1288 to 1.1256
tgt 1.1356

dc CB 15:52 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U of M survey
The ever shrinking supply of people who can afford phones hold onto an overwhelmingly positive outlook.

Chart

Paris ib 15:51 GMT January 30, 2015
New Record High on the DAX

DAX hanging around a new record high. 10,800 or thereabouts. Hard to see the case for more gains unless we have a break through with Russia and the Ukraine or we have some other major positive development.

German and Russia

Paris ib 15:46 GMT January 30, 2015
The Only thing that counts is USD/JPY

Expecting another test of the downside.

Paris ib 15:43 GMT January 30, 2015
OIL - is it over?

Looks like the we have seen the bottom in OIL.

Geopolitics is keeping the Ruble under pressure though. Interesting (though slightly weird) stuff going on in regard to the confrontation with Russia. Russian bombers have been 'escorted' by British jet fighters recently, the Greeks are coming out against further European sanctions against Russia, the 'official' Ukranian government is running into real opposition in its war on the Eastern provinces.....

Geopolitics is taking on some aspects of farce.

Escalation?

dc CB 15:31 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW



HK [email protected] 14:55

london red 15:14 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

if you owe a grand its your problem, if you owe 250bn the problem is not yours but the banks. this is why the new greek government has the upper hand in negotiations with the eu. but of course its not the banks that will ultimately pay, but the eu taxpayer.
as for the russians, the greeks have no gifts to offer and russia is more broke than they are. besides doing business with russians doesnt usually turn out well for the other party.

dc CB 15:09 GMT January 30, 2015
Riding the Roller Coaster
Reply   
Commodities trade on "supply and Demand" , fundamentals LOL
avg swing 80 pts

WTI

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised down SLIGHTLY from strong preliminary read.

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final January 2015

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
98.1 vs. 98.2 exp. vs. 98.2 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 14:57 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk



The Greeks are smart.
They know the Russians are ready to pay them(help them), just in purpose of splitting the EU.

How dear leader Obama screw Europe will take time to know.

HK [email protected] 14:55 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW



dc CB 14:47

You may keep your burger joint for this time.

7 Reasons To Shake Off Shake Shack's IPO

GVI Forex john 14:52 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Greek 10-yr 11.28% was 10.15%-30 earlier.

worries about bailout negotiations with new government.

dc CB 14:47 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW

got to sell that burger joint today. IPO must be successful

Shake Shack (SHAK) is scheduled to go public this Friday, January 30. $21/share offer.

london red 14:46 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW

RF bullard doesnt vote, but quite unremarkable stocks so far. we should get a test of yest high or low yet today.

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Chicago PMI January 2015

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
59.4 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 58.3 (r 58.8) prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer

HK [email protected] 14:43 GMT January 30, 2015
DOW
Reply   


Seems market makers try to play down Bullard comments.

Dow up. Maybe because end of the month?

gc GCM 14:30 GMT January 30, 2015
GREECE
Reply   
" Had the misfortune of a 3 hour round table with Yanis Varoufakis regarding economics and fiscal policy in 1999 here is oz" .He reminded me of those many thousands of Greeks who would sit under the big tree at the local café all day , sip coffee, solve the economic the evils of the world, while oblivious as to who was subsidising this luxury". A Zorba the Greek type . May be exiting the EU and joining Putin's proposed Economic Bloc is the only alternative. gt/to all
The Wizard of Oz

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

nh 14:23 thx 4 that reminder

london red 14:28 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

fwiw swissy retesting key 200 day ma.

dc CB 14:27 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

A Knight of the Fed Table challenges the Queen's Leak

The Red Queen Screams: OFF WITH HIS HEAD

Gammy get's upset

HK Kevin 14:26 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

HK RF, my neext short level would be 1.2980

dc CB 14:23 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

The Full Bullard
headlines

whot the Wires said he said AKA Algo Feed

The "Bullard Put" Is Gone

Livingston nh 14:23 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

If anybody watches SPX there are two gaps - above is Tues opening downgap ~2058 and below is the OCT rocket upgap ~1905

dc CB 14:20 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

for the End of the Month Windows it's looking like managers want MOAR bonds and LESS Stocks.

30Y ...if the buying continues Monday for the 1st of the Month allocation...my 1.9% will be just a few 300pt Down Dow days away.

PS as ZeroHedge pointed out 14 countries have cut rates this month

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS



dlr on a roll

dc CB 14:12 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Bullard Alert
Bullard on Bloomberg TV

BULLARD SAYS IT'S REASONABLE TO EXPECT RATE RISE JUNE OR JULY

HK [email protected] 14:09 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS



Switched during the day gradually to USD/JPY, reduce some of the USD/CAD losses.

With this negative GDP Cad$ is hopeless.

jkt abel 14:08 GMT January 30, 2015
usdcad
Reply   
time to short some 1.2785

HK Kevin 14:08 GMT January 30, 2015
usdcad

HK Kevin 16:42 GMT January 29, 2015
usdcad: Reply
My limit order to short at 1.2650 just got filled. Risk 80 pips for a return to mid 1.24 level.
Stop out at 1.2709

dc CB 14:03 GMT January 30, 2015
Yanis geet's more press
Reply   
In the first days after the election victory of the leftist party Syriza in Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, the new finance minister, has lobbed some rhetorical grenades, referring to his country’s foreign-imposed austerity budgets as “fiscal waterboarding” and calling Greece’s international bailout deals “a toxic mistake.”

Greece’s Feisty Finance Minister Tries a More Moderate Message

london red 14:01 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

yen approaching supp at 11720 with stops below. lets see if they are brave enough before the cut.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

earlier:
-- Russian Central Bank cuts rates to 15.00, -200bp

-- Greek government said it will not seek an extension of bailout package. Now What?

dc CB 14:00 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

A sad testament to what the USA has become. Once Upon A Time the picture leading this article would have been steel workers, a textile mill, an auto factory, inside Intel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/business/economy/us-gdp-fourth-quarter-economic-output.html?ref=business

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

RISK OFF

DJ -181
S&P -21

10-yr 1.674% -8.6

Mtl JP 13:52 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

john 13:40 and that is the lousy testament to the meddling and incompetence of the fake money psychopathic printers.

Remember their names.

SaaR KaL 13:51 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

USDCHF might be heading right back to 1.02
I am long

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Looking at the past 5 years four gtr moving avg annualized GDP. GDP has been running roughly between 2% and 3% pa. 2.6% is right in the middle of that range. So there appears to have been no acceleration of growth in 2014.

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Advance 4Q14 annualized GDP. Shy of estimates.



More U.S. Charts: http://goo.gl/tQwKPr

london red 13:34 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

euro. if cannot test 200 hour ma on this overall miss, favourite to test shs neck.

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: GDP December 2014





ALERT
m/m -0.2% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. GDP 4QQ14
U.S. Data Charts

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+2.6% vs. +3.10% exp. vs. +5.00% prev.


RELEASE: U.S. GDP


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 13:23 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

The next few days we see the last growth and inflation figures influenced by the Fed's QE -- despite Yellen's "concern" about employment it is all about the dueling measures of inflation for the next year -- the ISM figures next week will give a better look at the current effect of oil prices BUT the best measure of the distortion of ZIRP will be the Personal Income report (the Fed has decapitated the spending of savers)

GDP deflator vs Core PCE vs CPI vs Michigan Expectations

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21 GMT January 30, 2015
USDJPY
Reply   
118 trades for the 9th day in a row. Over this period the range has been 117.19-118.81, a symmetric 81 pip range around 118.

The longer this goes on the greater chance of a directional move once broken.

The JPY is the only major currency up vs. the USD this year.

london red 12:56 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

euro. neck of shs, 11287.

GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   
RISK OFF

DAX -28
DE 10-yr 0.351% -1.3

Futures
DJ -135
S&P -14
US 10-yr 1.726% -3.6

GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT January 30, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems

EURUSD
R1 1.1369 (HOD 1.1364)
Pivot 1.1315 (neutrality?)

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT January 30, 2015
Global-View Trading Systems
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Chart icon stores in browser tab.


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Mtl JP 12:13 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

example of crash
Canadian Oil Sands cuts dividend 86%

Mtl JP 11:45 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

a 10% + price dump - in one day - starts to be a crash

SaaR KaL 11:38 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

JP
for into the next month close range
37.58 32.16
is that a crash?

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

going from 45 to 42.50 can not be called "crash"

SaaR KaL 10:57 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

USDCAD Long Now
placed a stop at 1.0578 and trail that with 23 pips
TGT 1.35 in 2 weeks
well worth it IMO

SaaR KaL 10:51 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

Oil...crash coming up to 42.5

GVI Forex Blog 10:40 GMT January 30, 2015 Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: CA- GDP US- GDP, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan

Flash Eurozone January HICP (CPI) Falls. Japanese CPI Eases as Well

GVI Forex john 10:38 GMT January 30, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

30 January-- 10:40 GMT- Current Market Conditions
. Greek bond yields continue come off their highs from earlier in the week (10.15%, -30bp). Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) was lower than expected once again.

Otherwise Markets are moving into a MIXED RISK posture heading into the weekend. In forex,  the USD is broadly mixed in key relationships. The EUR is mixed on its crosses as well. In Europe, 10-yr bond yields are easier and equities are mixed. U.S. equity futures and bond yields are lower.

In Far East trade, equities closed mixed. 10-yr JGB 0.28% -1bp.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

SaaR KaL 10:20 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target

GBPNZD
Some chaos on up trend expected
Now Long
But...there is a crash coming up
2.10 to 2.14
for the whole year

SaaR KaL 10:16 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Red
All with you on that
I will wait till 1.1490 to short
I do not like it here

GVI Forex john 10:14 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

EZ inflation continues to fall, but ECB policy for th next year or beyond is already in place.

SaaR KaL 10:13 GMT January 30, 2015
2 weeks target
Reply   
NZDUSD is forked
from above .7240
expect .68 to .67

USDCAD from Below 1.2650
tgt expect 1.34

cable shorts is ok...but not as much as NZDUSD Shorts
and /Or USDCAD Longs

AUDUSD Shorts above 0.7745 tgt 0.7300 is ok

london red 10:09 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

its seems to be largely energy based so euro has managed to hold the 100 hour

GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

EZ flash HICP (CPI) lower than seen. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.


Hong Kong AceTrader 10:02 GMT January 30, 2015
AceTrader Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major (EUR/USD)
Reply   
Update Time: 30 Jan 2015 09:37 GMT

DAILY OUTLOOK ON EUR/USD - 1.1310

Although euro has staged a strong rebound from 1.1262 to 1.1368, as long as 1.1383 res holds, another leg of decline from Tuesday's high of 1.1423 to retrace corrective rise from Monday's 11-yr low at 1.1098 would take place and yield re-test of said sup, below, 1.1224.

Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break would signal pullback from 1.1423 is over, 1.1423.

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) January 2015





ALERT
Headline
yy: -0.60% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. -0.20% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.50% vs. vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts
http://goo.gl/cMwmm1





TTN: Live News Special Offer
height="30">

GVI Forex john 09:58 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

JA CPI... Japanese CPI. Data eases.




GVI Forex john 09:49 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

EZ and German Charts


EARLIER: German Retail Sales data mixed.


london red 09:41 GMT January 30, 2015
euro
Reply   
run dwn ahead of euro inflation which is set to move even lower. currently supported by 100 hour ma. below is 60/46/12. below these we are in full bear mode. a monthly close below lt fibs 46/12 are v bearish. 200 hour ma is quickly falling now well below 114 but topside should be capped at 11460 to keep focus on downside.

GVI Forex john 09:41 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

German Real Retail Sales December 2014




Earlier NEWS Release
mm:
+0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +1.00% (r ) prev.
yy: +4.0% vs. +3.50% exp. vs. +0.80% prev (r %).


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 09:30 GMT January 30, 2015
USDCAD Expect the Un Expected



Can add gradually small a sell USD/CAD. Seem that eventually a 4.1-SD price relative to 200-Weekly-Sma will have a correction.
A very rare event, probably not too sustainable.

SaaR KaL 07:41 GMT January 30, 2015
USDCAD Expect the Un Expected
Reply   
I don he wanna go down much
1.2640 near a buy level

GVI Forex Blog 06:10 GMT January 30, 2015 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN DEC NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.3%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 2.5% (9-month low) V 2.6%E - (JP) JAPAN JAN TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y: 2.2% (10-month low) V 2.2%E - (J

TradeTheNews.com Asian Mid-session Update: Japan upgrades industrial output view while CPIs hit fresh multi-month lows ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 04:32 GMT January 30, 2015
Terry McCrann RBA RATE MOVE
Reply   
Terry McCrann Exclusive

RBA

Syd 03:32 GMT January 30, 2015
Professor Warwick Mckibbin talks inflation
Reply   
Professor Warwick Mckibbin talks inflation

RBA

HK Kwun 03:01 GMT January 30, 2015
Silver and Gold
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Exchange operator CME hikes margins on silver futures, effective after the close of business Friday, following a volatile trading session that saw the precious metal tumble 7.3% to $16.758 an ounce, the biggest one-day decline since June 2013. Investors now will have to put up $7,920 per contract for delivery within the next four months when putting on new bets. That’s an 11% increase from the current level. The Fed’s relatively upbeat take on the U.S. economy in its statement on Wednesday hammered precious-metals, which tend to perform well when investors are wringing their hands. Gold slid 2.4% to $1,254.60 an ounce. Higher margins make wagers on the direction of prices less lucrative. That can squeeze out investors already holding losing positions, and the general aim is to discourage excessive risk-taking

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:58 GMT January 30, 2015
AceTrader Jan 30: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Jan 2015 01:33GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported earlier Japan's core consumer inflation slowed for a 5th straight month in December hit by collapsing oil prices, keeping the central bank under pressure to meet its ambitious 2% inflation target.

But factory output rose 1.0% in December helped by a much-awaited rebound in exports n manufacturers expect to increase production in January, boding well for an economy emerging from recession.
The pick-up in output backs up the BoJ's argument that a solid economic recovery will help accelerate inflation toward its target early next year, although oil price falls will continue to weigh on inflation in the short run.

The gov't raised its assessment on output to say it is "picking up moderately." In the previous month, it said output was flat.
Japan's economy slipped into recession in the 3rd quarter of last year as exports failed to pick up n last Apr's sales tax hike cooled consumer spending.

Analysts expect the economy to have expanded an annualised 3.2% in Oct-Dec as the tax-hike pain subsides, a Reuters poll showed.
In a sign the recovery will be fragile, however, household spending fell 3.4% in the year to December, separate data showed on Friday, more than a median market forecast.

Yesterday despite dlr's brief bounce from 117.88 to 117.16 in NY morning after the release of lower-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, selling interest below European high of 117.18 capped such gain there n price later retreated to 117.83.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending January 24 decreased by 43K to a seasonally adjusted 265K from the previous week's total of 308K. Market had expected U.S. initial jobless claims to decline by 8K to 300K last week.

Friday will see the release of Japan's Unemployment Rate, All Household Spending, CPI, Industrial output, Construction orders, Housing Starts, Australia's PPI, France's Producer Prices, KOF indicator, Italy's Unemployment Rate, Producer Prices, U.K.'s Gfk Consumer Confidence, Mortgage Approvals, euro zone's Unemployment Rate, Inflation ex Food & Energy, Canada's GDP, U.S. PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Sentiment.

Syd 01:29 GMT January 30, 2015
DJ Homeowner Rate Falls To A Level Seen In '94
Reply   
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to its lowest level in 20 years at the end of 2014 -- a level last seen when national leaders embarked on a broad push to expand homeownership in the mid-1990s.

Estimates published Thursday show that, after adjusting for seasonal factors, 63.9% of U.S. households owned their homes in the fourth quarter, a rate last recorded in 1994, according to the Commerce Department. Homeownership hasn't fallen below that level since 1988. The rate stood at 65.1% at the end of 2013.

The sharp drop over the past year reflects, in part, a substantial increase in household formation, which is good for the economy. That can cause the homeownership rate to fall if more of those households rent, which is what happened over the past year.

The report showed that household formation grew over the past year at the fastest pace since 2005, according to J.P. Morgan Chase, which could indicate that an improving economy is finally encouraging more young Americans to strike out on their own.

The homeownership rate has fallen steadily since 2005, when it peaked at 69.2%. That followed a decadelong campaign to expand homeownership, launched by President Bill Clinton in 1995 and embraced by President George W. Bush in the early 2000s.

Rampant real estate speculation and loose lending standards inflated housing bubbles across the country, and when prices collapsed, millions of Americans faced foreclosure.

Over the past year, President Barack Obama and other administration officials have voiced alarm that lending has gone from one extreme during the bubble -- too loose -- to the other -- too tight -- in the aftermath of the bust.

Officials have walked a fine line to prevent a return of the reckless loan products and practices that allowed the bubble to inflate while loosening some standards elsewhere to provide broader access to home buyers without strong credit or big down payments.

mumbai pkc 01:25 GMT January 30, 2015
BREAKING NEWS

Talking Points:
Euro Unlikely to Find Potent Catalyst in Weak German Inflation Figures
Swiss Franc Pressured, NZ Dollar and Yen in Corrective Mode Overnight
See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
January’s preliminary set of German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slip into negative territory for the first time since September 2009, when price growth was crafting a bottom in the aftermath of the Great Recession. While the outcome will serve to support the case for aggressive monetary stimulus, its impact on the Euro may prove limited. Mario Draghi and company have just unveiled a sizable QE program and have surely moved to wait-and-see mode, at least for now. That means another soft CPI print will mean relatively little for forward-looking policy bets, offering little impetus for FX volatility.
The Swiss Franc underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts. A singular, clearly-defined catalyst for the move was not readily apparent. The SNB is due to report on it’s the allocation of its FX reserves tomorrow, which may help investors gauge how officials might go about dealing with CHF495 billion in holdings accumulated as part of maintaining the now-defunct EURCHF floor. Elsewhere, a worrisome Business Times article warned of on-coming capital flight from Swiss banks that opt to pass on SNB-imposed negative rates to clients.
The New Zealand Dollar corrected higher having slumped following a dovish RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank backed off hawkish rhetoric presented in December, saying it expected to keep borrowing costs on hold “for some time” and conspicuously noted that future adjustments can take rates “either up or down”, seemingly opening the door for easing. Indeed, the markets’ priced-in 12 month RBNZ outlook now stands at its most dovish in over three years, with traders leaning toward at least one 25bps reduction. The Japanese Yen retraced downward having bested all of its G10 FX counterparts in the prior session.

dc CB 01:22 GMT January 30, 2015
Janet Yellen Saves The Day

Today's Yellen Bottom.

5 min SPY chart

dc CB 01:12 GMT January 30, 2015
Janet Yellen Saves The Day

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday offered an upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy in a meeting with Senate Democrats, even as she noted risks from overseas, according to media reports.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia told reporters after a private luncheon with Yellen that she said "things are going well" for the U.S. economy.

"She feels the economy is strong, a lot is good," Manchin said, according to the Journal.

New York Senator Chuck Schumer told Bloomberg: "Her message is that the economy’s getting better but there’s still a ways to go in terms of job creation.

"That worry seems, in her mind, to be paramount and that's why she is not going to raise rates immediately," he said.

Yellen tells Senate Democrats U.S. economy looks good

Syd 00:56 GMT January 30, 2015
aus
Reply   
DJ Australian Housing-Sector Credit +0.6% in Dec Vs Nov
Australian Business-Sector Credit +0.5% in Dec Vs Nov
Australia 4Q Final PPI +0.1% On Qtr

Syd 00:23 GMT January 30, 2015
UK GfK Jan Consumer Confidence +1 Vs -4 Dec
Reply   
UK GfK Jan Consumer Confidence +1 Vs -4 Dec

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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