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Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2015

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dc CB 19:58 GMT January 31, 2015
time for the Polar Votex frenzy to heat up this week.
Good excuse for poor retail performance in Feb.

Feb 7 forecast lows

dc CB 19:28 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension

Amid 'turmoiling' stock markets on Friday, CNBC's Simon Hobbs summed up the status quo's thinking on the new Greek leadership when he noted, somewhat angrily and shocked, "The Greeks are not even trying to reassure the markets," seeming to have entirely forgotten (and who can blame him in this new normal the world has been force-fed for 6 years) that political leaders are elected for the good of the people (by the people) not for the markets.

the most uncomfortable moment ever caught on tape - the moment when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (he of the "template" foot in mouth disease) stood up at the end of the EU-Greece press conference, awkwardly shook hands with Greece's new finance minister, and whispered..."you have just killed the Troika," to which Varoufakis responded...

(video and pix)

Caught On Tape: Dijsselbloem To Varoufakis: "You Just Killed Troika"

GVI Forex john 18:59 GMT January 31, 2015

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):  

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

GVI Forex john 17:56 GMT January 31, 2015
Reserve Bank of Australia
I expect a rate cut on Tuesday. AUD negative...

Australia Data Charts

Market rates are pointing downward. Note 2-yr yield is well below the cash rate target. This indicates the "smart money" is pricing in lower oficial rates.

weakening PMI suggests slowing growth

falling inflation. below target floor...

PAR 15:42 GMT January 31, 2015
OIL - is it over?

Why do you think Obama went to Saudi Arabia ? OIL - OIL -OIL .

GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT January 31, 2015
Janet Not Outdone by Mario - February 1, 2015

Central Bank Blunders Continue
Markets are continuing to feel the after effects from the long-delayed ECB decision over a week ago to start an aggressive Quantitative Ease (printing money) to stimulate economic growth in the European common currency area. Around that decision, nearly a dozen central banks have eased interest rates suggesting that for one reason or another the ECB had been holding up needed interest rate adjustments elsewhere. This appears to be another case of where poor policy execution by a central bank has been an unnecessary source of market instability. Recall, it was poor policy execution by the Swiss National Bank that created the worst case of forex instability seen in decades a few weeks ago.

Janet Not Outdone by Mario - February 1, 2015

Mtl JP 12:47 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension

What d ya think of shorting eur/gold ?

Mtl JP 12:45 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension

“We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.” said Varoufakis

Barclay's estimated risks of a eurozone breakup to levels “significantly higher than at any point in 2012”
I am bit uncertain if break-up of eurozone would mean break up (demise) of the euro.

GVI Forex 12:37 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension

JP trading on crisis or potential crisis news is not easy. This is a drama that has to play out but is a cloud over the EUR while it plays out.

Mtl JP 12:26 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or SeeknAidExtension

Jay - how do you see trading 12:17 for maximum profit ?

GVI Forex 12:17 GMT January 31, 2015
Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension
(Reuters) - Greece's new leftist government opened talks on its bailout with European partners on Friday by flatly refusing to extend the program or to cooperate with the international inspectors overseeing it.

Greece Says Will Not Cooperate With 'Troika' or Seek Aid Extension

hk nt 09:34 GMT January 31, 2015
OIL - is it over?

WTI crude: Lets see if we have one final dive from $50 to $36 in February. Big funds and firms have already squared shorts and finished hedging at low 40s. Hope momentum players may have enough bullet to power the last dive.

The upside risk comes from Russia. Think the Bear Bomber incident is a signal that the Russian warns the drop of oil price from 110 to 40 is not tolerable.

hk nt 09:04 GMT January 31, 2015
OIL - is it over?

technical tools project $36 downside target to be met in coming weeks and which maybe a long term floor

PAR 08:44 GMT January 31, 2015
German FM reportedly asked Russia to roll over $3bn loan to Ukraine. Forget the sanctions, help a brother out!

Mtl JP 07:24 GMT January 31, 2015
OIL - is it over?

'There will be blood' in Canada from oil price collapse, JPMorgan warns - The Globe and Mail
A major U.S. bank is warning Canadians what to expect from the rout in the oil market: “There will be blood.” That warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

That warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co. is largely aimed at the province of Alberta, home to Canada’s oil patch, but the collapse in oil prices will filter through the broader economy.
And I , perhaps naively, bought the earlier prognostications of lower energy prices as beneficial as a tax cut !!! What a fool I may have been...


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