Syd 23:38 GMT February 1, 2015
DJ Aussie House Price Growth Might Ground RBA Doves --
The strong jump in Australian house prices through January of 1.3% will send a shudder through policy makers at the central bank, who will sit down on Tuesday to debate an interest rate cut, the first in 18 months. Financial markets have priced in 50% chance of a cut in rates. Still, the big fear of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is that a rate cut aimed at sparking stronger growth could unleash a second wave of speculative demand for housing which has already pushed prices in Sydney up 57% since 2009. Combined with earlier data showing manufacturing activity is perkier thanks to a falling Australian dollar, it has not been a good start to the week for central bank doves
Syd 23:35 GMT February 1, 2015
DJ Australian House Prices Continue To Climb Strongly -- Market Talk
Australian capital city house prices rose a strong 1.3% in January versus December, with major capitals leading the charge. Melbourne prices rose 2.7% and Sydney followed with a 1.4% jump over the month, according to Corelogic RP Data. Weakness was visible in states exposed to the mining investment. Perth prices fell 0.6%; Adelaide fell 1.2%; Darwin 1.3%. Tim Lawless, head of research at Corelogic RP Data, said that since the beginning of 2009, Sydney has been a stand out housing market. From January 2009 through to January 2015 Sydney home values have increased by 57%. The second highest rate of growth over the same period has been in Melbourne where values are 50% higher. WSJ
GVI Forex 22:55 GMT February 1, 2015
Reserve Bank of Australia
Aus RBA policy decision
Feb 3, Last: 2.50%, WBC f/c: 2.25%
Mkt f/c: 2.50%, Range: 2.25% to 2.50%
● The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate by 25bps at its Feb meeting with a follow-up 25bp reduction in Mar taking the rate to 2%.
● The Bank left the cash rate unchanged at its Dec meeting, retaining its guidance that “... the most prudent course was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”. However, much has changed since then.
disappointingly weak Q3 national accounts update, a further sharp slide in Australia’s commodity prices and a sharp drop in confidence argue – strongly in our view – for additional policy stimulus. Witha sufficiently subdued Q4 inflation report allowing some scope for additional easing, we expect a 25bp rate cut at the RBA’s Feb 3 meeting. The Statement on Monetary Policy released three days later will provide a ‘full explanation’ for the move and the Bank’s (downwardly) revised growth and inflation forecast.
dc CB 22:35 GMT February 1, 2015
I prefer the 2nd w/ Ben and Max
cheers as all of AmerKa will be drunk and watching Katey Perry
Oh Yeh Dat SuperBowl Indicator....
Syd 22:14 GMT February 1, 2015
The Week Ahead - Feb 02 2015
FXStreet ::: Economic Calendar
The Week Ahead - Feb 02 2015
Monday, Feb 02
USD ::: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
This survey from managers in the manufacturing industry is expected to decrease, & currently the majority of US states are facing a sever winter weather which might slow down the economy. In case the news came in red USD might start showing the first signs of a rest from been bullish & it's when EURUSD might start correcting.
Tuesday, Feb 03
AUD ::: RBA Interest Rate Decision
AUD ::: RBA Rate Statement
RBA chance to hold the fall on AUDUSD is from the Interest Rate Decision event. Also during that day market is expecting a green number for the difference in value between imported & exported of goods and services in Australia. The rate been decrease the last time in Aug 06 2013 from 2.75% to 2.5% where AUDUSD was at 0.88 & Sep, Oct 2013AUDUSD price went bullish reaching 0.97 as a correction of 950 pips up.
Currently AUDUSD is in the deep of 0.77 & in need for a correction after a consecutive fall of 1700 pips during the last 4 months, & AUDUSD have space to correct at least 500 pips or 1000 pips.
NZD ::: Unemployment Rate (Q4)
The market is expecting a green number as a decrease in Unemployment Rate on this island during the previous quarter. Currently NZDUSD is in the buying zone as much the supp 0.710 from year 2011 hold, & during the last month NZDUSD went down 700 pips and we might see a correction during this event in case the number came in green.
Wednesday, Feb 04
NZD ::: RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speech
USD ::: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Also this week USD is on a meeting with another survey & this one is from non-manufacturing managers. The market is expecting a green number which might give strength for the US Dollar during Wed. A green number will indicate expansion & that might be translated as a good sign for the economic health in the US.
Thursday, Feb 05
GBP ::: BoE Interest Rate Decision
GBP ::: BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Feb)
Last time the BOE decreased the Interest Rate was in March 2009 from 1.0% to 0.5%, when GBPUSD was at 1.3 & currently GBPUSD is at 1.5 & during the last 10 days it did collapse under 1.50 psycho level reaching the deep of 1.494 yet somehow on daily chart GBPUSD is showing till now a steady control next to 1.50 level. During this event BOE will decide what next for GBPUSD where we might see on our chart a dive under 1.50 or a correction taking the price far from 1.50 psycho level in case GBPUSD stayed next to that level till Thur.
Friday, Feb 06
CAD ::: Net Change in Employment (Jan)
CAD ::: Unemployment Rate (Jan)
The market is expecting an increase in people seeking for jobs as a red number from Canada which might take USDCAD higher during this event & in case NFP came in green from US... USDCAD might skyrocket high. On the other hand in case the number came in green from Canada & NFP from US came in red this scenario might take USDCAD in a falling wave during that day which might start the correction needed on USDCAD chart.
USD ::: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
USD ::: Unemployment Rate (Jan)
The market is expecting on Friday a red number for the US Nonfram Payrolls event, as a decrease in the number of employed people in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, which might reflect a slowdown in the economic activity.
It's when the market might start correcting after a long bullish US Dollar wave.
Mtl JP 22:05 GMT February 1, 2015
sofar around -40 gapdown usdyen open
(also breakout of recent range)
GVI Forex john 21:38 GMT February 1, 2015
JP- I agree Asia will follow suit. Europe as well. No telling if the U.S. will follow through. It seems it never likes to follow through on overseas moves.
So its RISK OFF to start the new week.
Mtl JP 21:32 GMT February 1, 2015
NY stocks closed down on Friday
China PMI came out below expectations
Odds are Asia opens down, usdyen as well
views and idees welcome
london red 20:22 GMT February 1, 2015
snb burnt the specs. if chf backs off as they plan, wont be many lt causalities in the areas that concern the snb. swissy watch the 200 day. as heavy selling on first approach on friday so a sig lvl for this week. if they can overcome then 9500/35 in play.
GVI Forex john 19:59 GMT February 1, 2015
Hard to believe the SNB are going to repeat their last mistake.
GVI Forex john 19:57 GMT February 1, 2015
Swiss press report SNB now targeting EURCHF between 1.05 and 1.10.
-- source TTN
Mtl JP 19:21 GMT February 1, 2015
john 15:44 / earlier Carney oozed about China's role as engine of global econ growth.
ok, so this is just the first official negative news inflow. It is courageous / gutsy to "have to wait for future data" for a second and third negative news flow. Imo the risk is high that China will go to printing war with Japan and Euro. Prospect of yuan devaluation will likely weigh on other emerging markets and see massive capital outflows as players try to evade Chinese hard landing. Probably better to not wait and get caught in a clash between massive printers...
not positive pattern in China PMIs may give rewards via short crude or short aud
dc CB 18:38 GMT February 1, 2015
REITs the continuing story
“My view on enclosed malls is that there are 100 malls in this country that will always be dominant shopping destinations,” said Don Wood, chief executive of Rockville-based Federal Realty Investment Trust, owner of 17 million square feet of open-air U.S. shopping centers. “It’s Tysons Corner and Pentagon City in our area. It’s heavily populated, affluent areas. But there are 1,000 other malls in this country, and the future for those is bleaker.”
The fall — and overhaul — of the American mall
delhi 18:01 GMT February 1, 2015
OIL - is it over?
The problem is that there are very few places left on earth where it is economically feasible at today’s oil price to find and develop new supply. Even in the really good parts of the Eagle Ford Shale you need $52/bbl just to breakeven. There are not many publicly traded oil companies that I know of which are in this business just to breakeven. If all but a few OPEC nations are broke, who is going to drill the wells we need to supply future demand?
GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT February 1, 2015
We will have to wait for future data, but pattern in China PMIs is not positive.
GVI Forex john 15:08 GMT February 1, 2015
China NBS PMI weaker than expected and below the 50 "boom or bust" line. It is Often used as a proxy for AUD demand.
HK [email protected] 14:00 GMT February 1, 2015
The index that timed the 2008 crash perfectly just slumped to a 3-decade low Read more: http://www.
The Baltic Dry Index just hit a 28-year low. The index drew attention for mapping the financial crisis, going through the floor as the global economy tanked in 2008, but it just slumped to an even lower level.
The index measures shipping costs for dry bulk commodities (minerals and metals like coal and iron, as well as grain and other food).
It plunged by more than 90% in just a few months in 2008 as the global crisis unrolled. Then, it was an impressive bellwether for the global situation.
It has now dropped by more than 50% in less than three months. Here's how that looks:.....LINK
Delhi 13:29 GMT February 1, 2015
Greece seeks to reassure Europe as tensions rise
ATHENS, Jan 31 (Reuters) - New Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, striking a conciliatory note on debt talks after a turbulent start to office, has called the European Central Bank chief to assure him that Athens was seeking an agreement.
The new government in Athens made clear from its first day in power that it would not back down on its election pledges to abandon the austerity policies imposed under the bailout agreement sealed by the last government.
But facing growing disquiet from partners led by Germany, Tsipras rang European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday night to assure him that Athens was seeking an accord, a government official said.
"The discussion was conducted in a good spirit and it was confirmed that there's a willingness to find a mutually beneficial solution for Greece and for Europe," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
He also spoke to Jeroen Disselbloem, head of the euro zone finance ministers' group who ended a visit to Athens on Friday with a thunderous expression after an apparently scratchy exchange with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.
The official said Dijsselbloem had called Tsipras to reassure him that despite minor signs of tension, the negotiations would continue.
Jaipur 13:26 GMT February 1, 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
DEFINITION OF 'RISK-ON RISK-OFF'
An investment setting in which price behavior responds to, and is driven by, changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived as high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments.
Investors' appetites for risk rise and fall over time, and at times they are more likely to invest in higher-risk instruments than during other periods, such as during the 2009 recovery. The 2008 financial crisis was considered a "risk off" year, in which investors attempted to reduce risk by selling existing risky positions and moving money to either cash positions or low/no-risk positions, such as U.S. Treasury bonds.
Jaipur 13:21 GMT February 1, 2015
OIL - is it over?
The longer I look at what is going on today with oil prices the less it makes sense to me. I know there are a lot of experts who blame this all on the “glut” of oil created by overly aggressive U.S. upstream companies that took all the cheap money they could get to “Drill Baby Drill”. However, the size and speed of the drop doesn’t seem justified when there is still plenty of room to store the short-term oversupply. Last week’s Department of Energy crude oil inventory report shows that we still have plenty of room in the storage tanks. In fact, the DOE reported a draw from storage of more than 3 million barrels for the week ended January 2, 2015.
GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT February 1, 2015
Bank of England
I expect no policy changes on Thursday. GBP neutral...
Market rates are pointing downward. Note 2-yr yield is below the repo target.
ALSO, GBPUSD strongly correlated to U.K. 2-yr, which is a market predictor of future monetary policy.
Weakening PMIs. Mfg (export related) Service and Construction (domestic)
falling inflation (_red bar). well below target. Use RPIX as a "core"inflation measure.
GVI Forex 12:00 GMT February 1, 2015
MNI: CHINA JAN CFLP MFG PMI 49.8 VS MNI MEDIAN 50.1; DEC 50.1