Forex Forum Archive for 01/04/2016

Saar KaL 22:46 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

US Stocks good buy list
HA
EA
BSX
DIS
ALK
SIMO
TXN
IPGP
ICAGY
LB

GVI Forex Blog 22:02 GMT January 4, 2016
EURUSD January Effect: Myth or Reality?
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�

A colleague asked me about the EURUSD January Effect and whether it might play out this year. Before I could answer that I needed to investigate how accurate the January Effect is and whether it was more myth than reality. I looked back since the EURUSD was launched in 1999 and the evidence is far from conclusive as I show in the table below.

GVI Forex john bland 21:19 GMT January 4, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 5 January 2016

January 4, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 5, 2015. Trading News Calendar

• Far East: No Major Data
• Europe: DE- Unemployment GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, flsh HICP
• North America: US- API

5-Jan Tuesday
08:55 DE- Employment
09:30 GB- Construction PMI
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
6-Jan Wednesday
All day-- Global Service PMIs
13:30 US- Trade
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
7-Jan Thursday
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-Jan Friday
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI

GVI Forex Blog 21:00 GMT January 4, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close

GVI Forex john bland 20:53 GMT January 4, 2016
Commitment of Traders Report
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Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

Click on chart for EUR COT Details

Click on chart forJPY COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

Click on chart for COT Details

GVI Forex Blog 20:48 GMT January 4, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
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Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

dc CB 20:46 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

SToX
Desperately Seeking RampOlooza.
Another Tuesday with an Overnight Futures Ramp?

Chicago AGA 20:04 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

It feels like shock over the way equities opened the first day of the year. I cannot explain the usd but it is only day one of 2016.

dc CB 19:20 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

In the November 2015 press release, monthly and annual estimates for private residential, total private, total residential and total construction spending for January 2005 through October 2015 have been revised to correct a processing error in the tabulation of data on private residential improvement spending.

US Government "Discovers" 10 Years Of "Errors" In Construction Spending Data Slamming GDP

dc CB 18:27 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

TOMO
$199.670BLN 0.25 %
66 bid 66 filled

Saar KaL 17:12 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

Buying yhoo
Now very Bullish EURJPY for 133 + Tgt

GVI Forex Blog 16:45 GMT January 4, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off As Of European Close
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off As Of European Close

GVI Forex john bland 16:29 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

Crude closing weak in Europe
wti $36.41 -0.62
LOD $36.34

Israel Dil 16:11 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

Buy Crude
Entry: $36.70 Target: $38/$40.50 Stop: 50c

let's see

Livingston nh 16:04 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

EUR/USD third test of 1.08 in the past month -- a break leaves a lot of white space underneath

GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT January 4, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 5 January 2016
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January 4, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 5, 2015. Trading News Calendar

• Far East: No Major Data
• Europe: DE- Unemployment GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, flsh HICP
• North America: US- API

5-Jan Tuesday
08:55 DE- Employment
09:30 GB- Construction PMI
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
6-Jan Wednesday
All day-- Global Service PMIs
13:30 US- Trade
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
7-Jan Thursday
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-Jan Friday
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI

dc CB 15:20 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Fall



But the eCONomy is....
well Wed we'll get to see what they were....

GVI Forex john bland 15:14 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Fall

There is little doubt in my mind that the U.S. manufacturing sector is in a recession. Stronger USD does not help!

GVI Forex Blog 15:13 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Fall
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U.S. ISM Mfg weaker than expected. Final Markit PMI revised down. ISM report more important.

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Manufacturing PMIs Fall

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:11 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

Lousy US data, market ignores.

GVI Forex john bland 15:03 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Construction Spending November 2015

GVI Forex john bland 15:00 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2015

GVI Forex john bland 14:48 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit PMI December 2015

GVI Forex Blog 14:35 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI Weaker And Sub-50
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Canada Markit PMI weak. still sub-50.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada Markit PMI Weaker And Sub-50

GVI Forex john bland 14:31 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Weak Canada PMI

GVI Forex john bland 14:31 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Canada Markit PMI December 2015

Livingston nh 14:14 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

US ISM mfg could be lower than expected if the Fed's Ind Prod and regional results are any guide -- survey based guesses at yr end sometimes suffer from light response (STOX weaker and FI up on hopes for a one and done Fed)

Kneejerk response in oil should fade - USD/CAD break above 1.40 (USD/NOK still at recent highs)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:09 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

as I posted on GVIForex

Monday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:47 GMT 01/04/2016 - My Profile
Also China ban on stock short selling expires tomorrow

GVI Forex john bland 14:06 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

Dil -

See: Monday's Trading Thread
GVI Forex john bland 09:18 GMT 01/04/2016

Ive been here for 6 hours already!

Israel Dil 13:25 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

John

I am bit surprised you didn't mention the Chinese stocks collapse. Compared to past trillions injection from the regimes in other countries, after the same period the market's response was completely different.

The panic is to arrive and soon, the lie of naming cheap labor an economy even it's the world's #2 is to leading to a huge civil unrest and I wonder who will be the outsider to blame.

GVI Forex john bland 13:10 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: German flash HICP lower than Expected

German HICP comes in a bit short of expectations.

GVI Forex Blog 13:09 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: German flash HICP lower than Expected
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December German flash HICP up slightly. EZ flash HICP due Tuesday

BREAKING NEWS: German flash HICP lower than Expected

GVI Forex Blog 13:02 GMT January 4, 2016
WEEK AHEAD: ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS
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Monday 4 January 2016

US EMPLOYMENT DATA AND EURO AREA FLASH CPI IN FOCUS

� � �US labour market report and euro area flash CPI start the year off in earnest

� � �Services PMI is the main focus in the UK

� � �The divergent monetary policy outlook remains a key focus

GVI Forex john bland 13:01 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

German HICP (CPI) Flash December 2015

GVI Forex john bland 12:58 GMT January 4, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
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WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

4-Jan Monday
All day-- Global Mfg PMIs
5-Jan Tuesday
08:55 DE- Employment
09:30 GB- Construction PMI
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
6-Jan Wednesday
All day-- Global Service PMIs
13:30 US- Trade
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
7-Jan Thursday
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-Jan Friday
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:30 GMT January 4, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of January 4, 2016

Dollar starting off mixed with risk off. Note EURUSD key daily closing level was around the low. Also, it failed to close a one hour bar above 1.0939. Otherwise typical start of year whipsaw.

I am generally cautious to start the new year as it is often a week characterized by false starts and whipsaws. The start of 2016 is likely to be no different although the firm dollar close to end 2015 is likely to keep it on a solid footing to start the year but still well within its existing ranges. In my outlook video I show key levels to watch and scroll down this page for a special offer. �

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of January 4, 2016

GVI Forex john bland 11:11 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

wti $37.59 +0.57

Saar KaL 11:05 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

John
will buy dax below 10,239 to 9,866
TGT 10,854
Generally Bullish for these dates
5/28/2016 3/20/2017
12,324 13,245

Saar KaL 11:01 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

EURGBP is done with north > 0.7511

will short it above that
till 0.7614
TGT 0.7312
mid year 2016 expect 0.6673 area

GVI Forex john bland 10:55 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

DAX -396

DJ -275
SP -30

Saar KaL 10:50 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

will start shorting AUDUSD this week
0.7337 to 0.7443 tgt 0.7080

Saar KaL 10:42 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

Cable shorts this week above 1.4870 till 1.4925
tgt 1.4634

Saar KaL 10:03 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

Gold Shorts Every 2 bucks..Until 1087
tgt <1038

Hong Kong 09:59 GMT January 4, 2016
AceTrader Jan 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
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04 Jan 2016 09:34GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Cable pares intra-day rally after U.K. production data missed forecast. Reuters reported British factory growth slipped in December as new orders came in at the slowest pace in five months, according to a survey that showed scant sign of better fortunes for manufacturing this year after a tough 2015.

Monday's Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to a three-month low of 51.9 from 52.5 in November, at the bottom end of expectations in a Reuters poll that forecast a reading of 52.7.

Manufacturing failed to contribute to Britain's economic growth through the first three quarters of 2015, with the much larger services industry instead driving the recovery.

While an October surge in the factory PMI raised brief hopes of a manufacturing rebound in the fourth quarter, survey compiler Markit said a marginal positive contribution from the sector the now best that could be hoped for.

"The UK manufacturing sector ended 2015 on a disappointing note, with its rate of growth slowing further from October's recent high back down towards the stagnation mark," Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said.

Paris ib 09:44 GMT January 4, 2016
jpy vs cny

How bout we see how this goes on the American open. Target would be 110 but we won't get there in one day.

GVI Forex Blog 09:34 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Sharply Weaker
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U.K. Manufacturing PMI much weaker than expected

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Manufacturing PMI Sharply Weaker

GVI Forex john bland 09:30 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Big miss for UK mfg PMI

GVI Forex john bland 09:30 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Manufacturing PMI December 2015

-- NEWS ALERT --
51.9 vs. 53.2 exp. vs. 52.7 (r 52.5) prev.

GVI Forex Blog 09:27 GMT January 4, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off In Europe
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CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off In Europe

perth wtr 09:19 GMT January 4, 2016
jpy vs cny

right so usdjpy 110-112 next?

GVI Forex john bland 09:18 GMT January 4, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
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DAX -384

futures
DJ -283
SP -31

10-yr
US 2.231% -6.5bp
DE 0.575% -5.1bp
GB 1.880% -9.1bp

wti $36.91 -0.14

Focus on 7% decline in Chinese bourses following weaker Caixin PMI (see below). Markets in a RISK-OFF posture in Europe. WTI steady despite heightened tensions between the Saudis and Iran.

GVI Forex Blog 09:03 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash Manufacturing PMIs Mixed vs. Estimates
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EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Mixed vs. flash estimates.

BREAKING NEWS: EZ Flash Manufacturing PMIs Mixed vs. Estimates

GVI Forex john bland 09:00 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Final MFG PMI December 2015

GVI Forex Blog 08:53 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Swiss PMI Better
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EARLIER: Swiss PMI Improved

BREAKING NEWS: Swiss PMI Better

GVI Forex Blog 08:50 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Japan Final PMI Better
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Final Japan PMI Better

BREAKING NEWS: Japan Final PMI Better

GVI Forex Blog 08:47 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: China Caixin PMI Soft
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Earlier: Caixin PMI eases. Still sub-50.

BREAKING NEWS: China Caixin PMI Soft

Paris ib 08:46 GMT January 4, 2016
jpy vs cny

Look before the BoJ got crafty USD/JPY was 80.00. How can it last? This is just starting. Think repatriation. Think big.

GVI Forex john bland 08:43 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Swiss PMI December 2015

GVI Forex john bland 08:40 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

Japan final PMI December 2015

GVI Forex john bland 08:37 GMT January 4, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

China Caixin PMI December 2015

HK Kwun 07:58 GMT January 4, 2016
Gold is still bearish
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Sell Gold
Entry: 1072 Target: Stop: 1082

sell more for every rise

Hong Kong 07:36 GMT January 4, 2016
AceTrader Jan 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
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04 Jan 2016 04:10GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr trades above intra-day 10-week low of 119.65 and has shown muted reaction to early BoJ Governor Kuroda's dovish comments. Reuters later reported PM Shinzo Abe said that Japan was exiting deflation and pledged that his government and the central bank would work together to completely defeat it.

Whether Japan can accelerate inflation would depend on capital expenditure and wage growth, Abe said, maintaining his moral suasion on corporate Japan to make the investment needed to sustain a virtuous cycle of consumption and growth.

When later asked whether such statement may be taken as hasty judgment on deflation, Abe said Japan has still not completely conquered deflation even though the Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary stimulus has reversed prices to "uptrend".
Japan's core consumer inflation was 0.1 percent in the year to November, rising for the first time in three months, underlining Japan's uphill struggle to foster price growth in the face of tumbling oil prices.

Given the risk of Japan's consumer prices falling back into decline, the government has not yet declared that deflation has been completely eradicated.

Abe said he would make Japan's presence in global diplomacy more widely recognised as he chairs this year's G7 summit in May and plans for a trilateral summit with China and South Korea this year, and would raise with G7 peers the issues facing the global economy, including rising uncertainty, the fight against terrorism, and challenges for the Asia-Pacific region.

Saar KaL 07:26 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs

Buying SP500, NDX and Nikki

perth wtr 07:05 GMT January 4, 2016
jpy vs cny
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cny keeps being devalued and jpy is strengthening? how long can this last? BOJ says nothing?

perth wtr 06:59 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil, S. Arabia, Iran, religious fanatics, etc. etc. etc.

when we go above 40, you will say oil is heading to 75

Haifa ac 06:33 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil, S. Arabia, Iran, religious fanatics, etc. etc. etc.

"Oil wants 20 Bucks early 2017"

WHATEVER LOILA WANTS...LOILA GETS...
Make up your mind to have No regrets
Recline yourself, resign yourself, you're through

Sarah Vaughan - Whatever Lola Wants Lyrics ....

Saar KaL 06:18 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil, S. Arabia, Iran, religious fanatics, etc. etc. etc.

Oil wants 20 Bucks early 2017

Saar KaL 06:13 GMT January 4, 2016
Oil Shorts USDJPY Longs
Reply   
For a while IMO

dc CB 04:43 GMT January 4, 2016
Dumber than a DoDo. And soon to be as Ex>>>>>tinck

Election Years ARE ALWAY UP YEARS!

Dey don tol me dat in SKOOOOL

ES dat not TRUE

DOZ BARRONS not tell the Truth....AKA The LIE!!!!

omg OMG omg
Lies....Oh breast take it to love mine dagger of TRUTH
There is no truth in what I WAT I see... taught to believe.
Liars all. I die.

ShakesSpeare 2015 V2034...book 120

dc CB 04:43 GMT January 4, 2016
Dumber than a DoDo. And soon to be as Ex>>>>>tinck

Election Years ARE ALWAY UP YEARS!

Dey don tol me dat in SKOOOOL

ES dat not TRUE

DOZ BARRONS not tell the Truth....AKA The LIE!!!!

omg OMG omg
Lies....Oh breast take it to love mine dagger of TRUTH
There is no truth in what I WAT I see... taught to believe.
Liars all. I die.

ShakesSpeare 2015 V2034...book 120

perth wtr 04:42 GMT January 4, 2016
buy euro

yeah, buy for 1.25 isnt it?

bali sja 04:41 GMT January 4, 2016
buy euro
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looks like euro has bottomed for the year of 2016 ;)

dc CB 04:33 GMT January 4, 2016
Dumber than a DoDo. And soon to be as Ex>>>>>tinck
Reply   
But Wait
But Wait
But Wait

Y
R
U
Sellin' whot Barrons' SEZ is a BUY

CONfused?

Dear Confused: U Believed what we said, when we said BUY BUY BUY SToX.

What a Rube!

dc CB 03:49 GMT January 4, 2016
2016

humor me

Da Queen Und da Trader

dc CB 03:48 GMT January 4, 2016
2016
Reply   
in Dis Retro song enjoy the first day of trading

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt0sXRBLfJM

and the battle continued on

music to trade by Barnard Estemed Grad...with PopuLar Kudos.
Like an 11 on scale of 10.
But 20 Year ago. whot is good is whot is

Fu*kin" OUCH

DUDE!!!!

Hong Kong 03:10 GMT January 4, 2016
AceTrader Jan 4: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
04 Jan 2016 02:00GMT

Today is PMI day for global markets. Reuters reported Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in December at the same pace as the previous month as new orders grew at a faster rate in a sign the economy maintained momentum at the end of 2015, a revised survey showed on Monday.

The Markit/Nikkei Final Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was a seasonally adjusted 52.6 in December versus a flash reading of 52.5 and unchanged from a final 52.6 in November - the highest reading since March 2014.

The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the eighth consecutive month. The final index for new orders was 54.2, up from a preliminary 54.1 and a final 53.6 in the previous month.

For new export orders, the final number fell to 52.2 from a flash reading of 52.4 and from a final 53.2 in November, the survey also showed.

Japan's economy dodged recession in the third quarter with the initial estimate of a contraction revised to an annualised expansion of 1.0 percent due to gains in capital expenditure, data showed last month.

An unexpected rise in machinery orders also suggests that business investment could help underpin growth due to improving corporate activity and domestic demand.

Reuters reported Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today that Japan was no longer in deflation, while pledging that the government and the central bank would work together to completely defeat it.
When later asked whether such statement may be taken as hasty judgment on deflation, Abe said Japan has still not completely conquered deflation.

London Chip 02:28 GMT January 4, 2016
eur yearly top/bottom

that argument would be justified by looking at the yearly chart ... the candle will either be red or green ???

London Chip 02:23 GMT January 4, 2016
aussie
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looks to be making a break for the border ...

hk ab 02:15 GMT January 4, 2016
eur yearly top/bottom
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Once I remember there was a discussion that eur makes year high/low in January.....

With price development like this, is it still possible?

dc CB 02:11 GMT January 4, 2016
SToX 2016 FASB.....LOL
Reply   
Accounting rule makers are not generally known as flame-throwers. But with a new proposal, the Financial Accounting Standards Board has lobbed a miniature Molotov cocktail into the usually staid world of audit standards, upsetting investor groups and experts in the field.

The proposal would effectively change the definition of materiality, a mainstay of corporate financial disclosure that determines what a company must tell investors about its operations and results.

On its surface, that sounds tame enough.

Fair Game By GRETCHEN MORGENSON JAN. 2, 2016

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:55 GMT January 4, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of January 4, 2016

I am generally cautious to start the new year as it is often a week characterized by false starts and whipsaws. The start of 2016 is likely to be no different although the firm dollar close to end 2015 is likely to keep it on a solid footing to start the year but still well within its existing ranges. Inb my outlook video I show key levels to watch and scroll down this page for a special offer. �

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week of January 4, 2016