GVI Forex john bland 22:58 GMT January 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
API Crude reportedly fell --5.6mln vs +0.500 mln expected.
GVI Forex john bland 22:53 GMT January 5, 2016
Wednesday's Trading Thread
Reply
Wednesday is an active session for data. Lots to trade against. Plan your trading strategies well in advance.
GVI Forex john bland 22:50 GMT January 5, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
6-Jan Wednesday
All day-- Global Service PMIs
13:30 US- Trade
15:00 US- ISM Service PMI
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
7-Jan Thursday
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-Jan Friday
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI
Livingston nh 22:33 GMT January 5, 2016
CNY
Reply
Overnight we find out whether China moves again to stabilize the currency and the stock markets -- this mix didn't work out so well over the summer // maybe this time will be different
dc CB 22:09 GMT January 5, 2016
But Wait But Wait How can this be?
You can't tell me that this BS with the Calendar changing over...like means anything....
I mean WTF, like yesterday THEY all told me NOW IS THE TIME ...and additional 10% (hey way way more than a CD you dumbass)In 2016.....Wait Wait Wait .... I put wa Prudent...I staggered My orders...that I planned over the Holiday's ....that Wud Make Me, at the very least, able to Quit My Day Job.
But all these Guys....Wait Wait Wait Wait Wait Wait Wait....they are now SAYING SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL.
Wait Wait Wait
At least I'm really really Young and have a HOPE to make it back...later on.
PUKE on my Keyboard
dc CB 21:55 GMT January 5, 2016
But Wait But Wait How can this be?
PS
US starts shipping LNG ...Woops... LNG from Louisianna, etc from US Frackers vs LNG from Qatar from the biggest and bestest NG "freezeer" facility the Arab world had ever seen.
dc CB 21:46 GMT January 5, 2016
But Wait But Wait How can this be?
Reply
API crude inventory draw 5.6MM, but Cushing rose another 1.4MM
via ZH
So WTF---Cushing is where WTI is Stored.
Is this Loading Tankers (those that are left empty) for the New New Freedom to EXport into the Saturated Market?
WHOT WE Need is a Deep Freeze across the US and Europe!
You Called?
Ya he preDicted that I Wud Freeze in a Flip in Jan
The Go to Guy for Weather related commod traders.
(a bit out there but Solid)
Watch the 1/5 UPDATE
Joe and Weatherbell
dc CB 21:09 GMT January 5, 2016
Some Folks got killed...er died...er suffered from a Malfunction
So, based on my theory that when they give the top job to a female...the sheit is about to hit the fan. Ms.Barra apparently woz smarter than the average male.
WHOT About Janet Yellen...she's near the edge and as it seems from just the first two trading days of Switcheroos by the Big (U Cn't Touch Me) Banks on their views of SToX and the eCONomy...She be in the X-hairs, the Reticle. Will adjusments be made?
Negative for now.
dc CB 21:00 GMT January 5, 2016
Some Folks got killed...er died...er suffered from a Malfunction
To put this SHOCK I'M SHOCKED Casablanca moment into view.
The FLIP FLOP.
On Dec 27, I was bicycling in shorts and a long sleved top.
On Jan 5, when I woke up it was 12 degrees F outside my door.
Then there is in the OMG OMG OMG.
2016 SHORT is the TRUE LONG(2015) or Somebody Wants Your Shares....cheap cheap
Then there is (via ZH) Joe "it's all comin' up roses you just ain't wearing the right perscription in your glasses"
From Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna:
We have reduced our estimate of Q4 real GDP growth by one full percentage point to 0.5%, and this still might be too high in light of what could be much larger inventory liquidation than what we have assumed. We discuss this in more detail below.
Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Just Slashed His Q4 GDP Forecast To 0.5%, Says "It May Be Too High"
dc CB 20:10 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
too many "Banks" coming out with "Stocks are overvalued"
JPM, Citi, did Bank Amer say that too? Blips are to be Sold --- BTFD is Soooo last year. (to paraphrase JPM)
Then there was Ex Dallas Fed Fisher on CNBC today --- The Fed Frontran this in 09... ...AKA the FED rigged the market.
AND ---- the FED have a really Big Weapon, but it's out of amunition"
So the only way to be able to Unload Stocks at higer prices is to force a short killer rally....We will Force You to Buy to stop your shorts from bleedin'.
But since everybody who's anybody is Yellin' SELL, these blips will be short
dc CB 18:16 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
APPL save 'nother headline from China
Apple Releases Watches Designed for Chinese New Year: Sina News.
Remmember the Crash in Aug, when APPL went to the low 90s, and out of no where Cramer has an Email from from Tim Cook about how great the china numbers........ZH twitted it.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/684425555618443265
Hey I give Tim Cook lessons at my Special CEO rate of $500K per hour. Just like a Bill/Hillary Clinton speach.
yrs
Manny I Pulation
Livingston nh 18:10 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
cb - advancing issues just flipped positive but volume is still negative // it will be a battle and then we start looking at NFP
dc CB 18:03 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
over the weekend, I read a take on the RevRepo that I hadn't considered. I have been saying that the echange for un-leverageable CASH for Leverageable Collateral -- Treasuries, was a gift to the Privy Entities.
This added take - the CASH that the FRBNY takes in is then used to fund its MarkIT operations, the Exchange Stabalization Unit, aka the PPT, and other ventures to get Prices where THEY SHUD BE.
So it really is a version of QE. What is different is which entity is employing the CASH in the MarkIt.
dc CB 17:52 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
before that headline hit, SToX were working on a turn around Tues, similar to last week. RevRepo in a half hour. Maybe the PPT will use some of that Cash to Kill some over eager shorts.
GVI Forex john bland 17:51 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Thanks for you comments on AAPL. I wonder if the Dow and S&P will tank.
dc CB 17:47 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
you may recall, but they were saying --- yeh the Dow would be over 20000 now if only APPL was part of the Index. When the finally added it, that was some of the thinking. They overlooked the fact the Steve Jobs was already Dead and people like that don't come along that many times in a lifetime. Nobody at that company has had a really NEW NEW THING idea is years.
Livingston nh 17:47 GMT January 5, 2016
deja vu EU
Reply
As the EUR moves to give back the Draghi Dec bounce it is time for Draghi again -- but what's new this time? // Greece will surface again (see Pensions) and the social fabric is being tested as the Middle East descends into complete chaos putting more immigrant pressure on member states - nothing has been fixed over the past five years // The EU empire is cracking as all its predecessors did
GVI Forex john bland 17:37 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
They always add new stock into the indices after they have topped out.
dc CB 17:25 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
APPL has a large "weighting" in the 3 main Indexes. It was unfortunately added to the DJIA this year. NAS, Dow, SnP in that order.
It is also one of the 8 or 10 Stocks that for 2015 has led these Indexes higher.
It reports on Jan 26th.
Livingston nh 17:24 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
AAPL is a confidence thing - STOX internals have been mixed most of the day but now direction is clear (seems mutual funds bought a bunch on the last 1/2 hr yesterday) as the issues and volume are negative so last piece is the chart to rollover // oil below $36 would also kick stox
GVI Forex john bland 17:15 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
CB- Do you think AAPL can pull down the stock market all by itself? This is NOT a rhetorical question.
dc CB 17:13 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
APPLE MAY CUT IPHONE 6S, 6S PLUS PRODUCTION BY ~30%: NIKKEI
bye bye ST0X
HK RF@ 16:10 GMT January 5, 2016
If crude behaves this way, why should I go for gold?
Reply
GOLD!
Safe haven for what?
Iran is not in a position to go to war with Saudi(and other Gulf countries).
An increase in oil prices if happens, will not compensate for war costs.
How much more, if oil tankers will not be able to exit to open seas.
The market is not buying this threat, as reflected in oil prices.
Gold too is not looking Tech. so attractive.
dc CB 16:09 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
the last time USD futures crossed over 100 was 12/3, the last NFP report. It dropped to 9760 after the release.
GVI Forex john bland 16:04 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Negative correlation. When big investors (hedge funds etc) buy stocks, they borrow EUR at negative interest rates and convert the EUR into USD to pay for the stocks. That drives EURUSD lower. Just the opposite when stocks are falling.
It doesn't always work, but it can be fairly reliable. Also the moves up and down are not always symmetrical in magnitude.
HK RF@ 16:02 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
With inflation target of 2% for the EURO, S&P becomes irrelevant.
ECB will do the best to prevent a strong EURO
A drop in S&P, may not help the EURO either.
Now; To watch for a break of 1.07 if happens, most relevant for near future price action.
GVI Forex john bland 15:46 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
S&P bounce seems to be driving EURUSD lower. S&P well off its HOD.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:46 GMT January 5, 2016
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NY JM 12:46 GMT January 5, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
The two big hits on the EURUSD came after inflation data, Germany yesterday and EZ today.
Hillegom Purk 11:57 GMT January 5, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Wonder if it can stay under 150-152 handle for a few months... this has been a slot machine for a while now.
GVI Forex john bland 11:45 GMT January 5, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
As you can see, there are no major market-moving releases set for the rest of the day until API Crude very late in North America.
GVI Forex john bland 11:43 GMT January 5, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
5-Jan Tuesday
08:55 DE- Employment
09:30 GB- Construction PMI
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
6-Jan Wednesday
All day-- Global Service PMIs
13:30 US- Trade
16:00 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
7-Jan Thursday
09:00 EZ- Retail PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
8-Jan Friday
09:30 GB- Trade
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI
GVI Forex john bland 11:39 GMT January 5, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
DAX -80
futures
DJ -122
SP -14
10-yr
US 2.230% -0.8bp
DE 0.557% -1.6bp
GB 1.862% 0.0bp
Equities volatile today. Currently lower. EUR mostly lower on its crosses, except vs. CHF and NZD.
wti $36.77 +0.01
Paris ib 10:24 GMT January 5, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
Indeed. What is interesting is the USD/JPY's role as an indicator for the USD in general and with the USD/JPY falling, global stock markets will remain under pressure... 2016 is going to be an interesting year. If the FED chooses to continue to HIKE rates in the face of all that then that is interesting to me. 2 year yields in the STATES are already up above 1 percent. 3 year yields are at 1.3 percent. There is a massive amount of U.S. Government debt which needs to be refunded every year. Auctions are estimated at 4 trillion per year, 4 trillion going to auction as yields rise. That has to be a headache.
Japan is a major source of finance for the U.S., as is China. Together they are the two single biggest holders of U.S. Government debt. There has been not been a significant inflow of new money into the U.S. Government bond market from abroad for years now. And that, given the role of foreigners in financing the U.S., is something which needs to be watched. And then we have GEOPOLITICS... actually I'm beginning to think this whole market is GEOPOLITICS. Economics and interest rates come a very poor second and third. So good luck everyone in 2016. It should be a wild ride.
Foreign Holders
manila tom 10:18 GMT January 5, 2016
sell eurjpy
Reply
short eurjpy looks promising
will try on any short term bounce
Paris ib 10:02 GMT January 5, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
Paris ib 13:29:30 GMT - 06/19/2015
USD/JPY remains, to my mind, the pair to watch. The Greece drama is a drama but of little import. We could do headline ping pong on this one till December and, quite frankly, my nerves aren't up to it. At some point the whole thing goes into the bottom drawer to be quietly forgotten. USD/JPY has a more interesting outlook. Failure to hold a break of 125.00 sets us up for a test of 120.00 to see what's out there.
And the saga continues.
GVI Forex john bland 10:01 GMT January 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
EZ inflation data remains soft.
GVI Forex john bland 10:00 GMT January 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Eurozone flash HICP (CPI) December 2015
ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.9% vs. vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john bland 09:30 GMT January 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Construction PMI better than expected.
Saar KaL 09:21 GMT January 5, 2016
Orders in place for Jan
Reply
Jan / 2016 Orders
AUD/NZD B 1.03600
EUR/AUD B 1.46600
EUR/CAD B 1.48090
EUR/GBP B 0.73100
EUR/GBP B 0.73110
EUR/GBP S 0.76220
EUR/USD B 1.07500
EUR/USD B 1.07050
GBP/USD S 1.48990
GBP/USD B 1.44750
GER30 B 10,025.42
JPN225 B 17,959.00
JPN225 B 18,020.08
NAS100 S 4,716.49
NZD/USD B 0.66980
UK100 B 5,855.05
US30 S 17,976.32
USD/CAD B 1.37620
USD/CHF S 1.01490
USD/JPY B 117.782
USOil S 38.461
GVI Forex john bland 08:55 GMT January 5, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
German Unemployment December 2015
NEWS ALERT
Rate: 6.30% vs. 6.30% exp. vs. 6.30% prev.
Change: -14K vs. -8K exp. vs. -13K (r ) prev.
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Singapore SGFXTrader 08:36 GMT January 5, 2016
Will Eurusd revisit 1.09?
Shawn,
Eurjpy is struggling to hold at the support level. If fail to hold, might send Eurusd further towards 1.06.
However, I am waiting to see if the bull which push Eurusd out of 1.045 region for nearly 500 pips within 4-6 hours can return to lift Eurusd towards 1.10.
My take is Eurusd should try 1.11 minimal before any big downtrend resumes.
Hong Kong 06:24 GMT January 5, 2016
AceTrader Jan 5: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply
Update Time: 05 Jan 2016 03:18 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0832
Yesterday's break of daily sup at 1.0802 to a 4-week low of 1.0781 in New York session confirms early decline from December's 1.1060 peak has once again resumed and as long as 1.0860/65 holds, intra-day bearishness remains for aforesaid fall to pressure price to 1.0750/60.
However, near term loss of momentum is expected to keep euro above 1.0728 today and bring subsequent correction.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.0865 would be the 1st signal temporary low is in place, then further gain towards 1.0946 would follow later.
bali sja 05:38 GMT January 5, 2016
audusd
Reply
do you guys think audusd 0.7160-70 can hold?
jkt abel 05:35 GMT January 5, 2016
sell usdcad
too early guys, beware...
kl shawn 05:33 GMT January 5, 2016
sell usdcad
going short usdcad also 1.3919, adding if 1.3932 seen, stop later
kl fs 05:31 GMT January 5, 2016
sell usdcad
Reply
sold 1.3918, stop 1.3967, target open
kl shawn 04:14 GMT January 5, 2016
eurjpy
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buy eurjpy 126-128 zone for mid term play, stop below 124.70, target 135-140
jkt abel 04:07 GMT January 5, 2016
usdcad
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..is pivoting 1.3940-50 IMHO, will see around that level later early London and decide which way to go later on
Singapore SGFXTrader 03:40 GMT January 5, 2016
Will Eurusd revisit 1.09?
Reply
Eurusd is trading at 1.081x level.
Will we see another bounce off 1.08 towards 1.09?
What are your thoughts?
Hong Kong 02:59 GMT January 5, 2016
AceTrader Jan 5: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply
05 Jan 2016 02:30GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr regains composure in Asian morning as intra-day move back into positive territory in Chinese stocks has led to broad-based recovery in Asian stocks, Dollar rebounded from 119.10 to 119.63 as modest gain in the Nikkei has boosted risk sentiment, leading to yen selling vs its peer currencies.
Looks like the pair would gain respite after yesterday's selloff from 120.47 to an 11-week low of 118.70 (Europe). Having said that, dlr's daily close below the 'psychological' 120.00 level bodes ill for the pair and price should head lower towards daily obj. 118.06 later this once current consolidation is over.
Offers are noted at 120.65/75 n more above with stops reported above 120.00, initial bids are touted at 119.20-10 with stops below 119.00, more stops are reported below 118.60.
BoJ Governor Kuroda is scheduled to deliver a speech at 07:10GMT.
kl shawn 01:59 GMT January 5, 2016
buy audusd
Reply
audusd buy 0.7180-0.72, stop below 0.7140, target 0.7350
Mtl JP 00:48 GMT January 5, 2016
Newz U Can Uze
dc CB / the scotts got screwed
1-most folks naturally resist change
2-the establishment had a longtime to prepare landmines and other devious measures to try to prevail (matters most who does the counting)
-
I would be surprised if the UK should ever vote against the EU membership
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