dc CB 21:41 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
And THE TOP STORY TONITE
JOBS JOBS JOBS. OMG
Donna Pay No Attention to the SToX Market.
China hahahahahha.
WE GOT JOB JOBS
(except for wages....but who needs to be paid...just be happy U GOT A JOB)
NPR All ThingsConsidered.(now not only National Propaganda Radio, But Cute Cute Voices name like no one you ever enountered before in your daily life..... CUTE CUTE....
and soon to be followed by all the Other US MSM outlets.
Paving the Positive Spin for the Obama State of the Union ....Tuesday Nite.
nw kw 20:53 GMT January 8, 2016
Commitment of Traders Report
usd has big shorts in cad banks im awaiting them to take profit for usa shorted the world so bigger move pending but timing this is key. gl. po.
dc CB 20:43 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
TOMO
$99.971bln
47 takers.
A billion just ain't what it used to be. Check how much they threw at the market this week
TOMO 25 Days
GVI Forex john bland 20:38 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
sorry busy at moment. I figuerd stox would fall and EURUSD would rally. Just what happened!
Many thanks
Saar KaL 20:17 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
John
If you have a yahoo stock symbol...will run my analysis here
GVI Forex john bland 20:14 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Any opinions on how stocks will close?
I'm thinking weak into China on Monday. This in no way has been a vote of confidence in the jobs data.
Saar KaL 19:58 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
If for EURUSD I got this tgt 1.1072
for next week...Buy below 1.0876
Livingston nh 17:51 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
John - UK fiscal impact from lower energy tax revenue
___________
Choppy oil, stox internals have been negative even while SPX moved higher, treasurys flat -- first one to establish a direction likely drags everybody else along
london red 17:48 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
CB, train timetable for today? seems a quiet afternoon a buck will go a long way.
yen 11796/118 close key
GVI Forex john bland 17:48 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
US 10-yr 2.145% -0.60%
I believe I saw 2.190% at one point
PAR 16:34 GMT January 8, 2016
Sell the US dollar
Reply
Only way to stabilise stock and commodity markets is a lower dollar .
Oil prices keep declining as dollar keeps strengthening.
london red 15:40 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
gbp is suffering from brexit hedging effects, the softer data hasnt helped either. nothing to do with oil. i said last year folk are not hedged for brexit, they are doing it now.
london red 15:39 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
watch cable into the fix. prev low was 14567. a fix below is bearish for remainder of session and a weekly close below bearish for next wk. eurgbp will be affected but likely to top out at 7500 today. it may or may not breach the barrier there but either way should fall off after fix. there are some stops abv there but id be surprised to see appetite abv 75 cents after a volatile week.
GVI Forex john bland 15:23 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
DAX, and S&P at their LOD. Crude weak also. Bad for USD.
Livingston nh 15:22 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Oil is starting to break down again - weight on Stox - helpful to USD vs CAD, NOK (GBP? petro effect)
Paris ib 15:19 GMT January 8, 2016
What Just Happend to the AUD?
I have trouble believing that a new flood of Japanese money is going to save the AUD. AUD/JPY looks terrible.
Paris ib 15:15 GMT January 8, 2016
What Just Happend to the AUD?
Bis Shrapnel Outlook
"The mining boom is over.. the non-mining sector is facing several headwinds including weak demand... and profits... In this climate, it doesn�t make sense for businesses to invest. And they won�t...
Meanwhile, dwelling investment, which has been a key driver of growth over the past two years is showing signs of peaking... recognising that the greater the oversupply the greater the subsequent bust."
Australia is hoping for a big AUD depreciation to offset, well, EVERYTHING. At best AUD bearish.
Goldman Outlook for Australia
Gold Coast Martin 15:11 GMT January 8, 2016
What Just Happend to the AUD?
Stopped for the month. They will repeat this every month for 30 days with a 15 day break in between. Next will be 3 year bonds from the mining giants, Glencore and BHP. So commodity currencies will get a lift around the 23rd of this month.
Its a trend that will last until the end of 2016 targeting "recessed assets worldwide.
Will be the biggest corporate investor in forthcoming Aramco IPO.
Gold Coast Martin 14:59 GMT January 8, 2016
What Just Happend to the AUD?
What Just Happend to the AUD?
Japan Post's recently changed charter of buying JGBs primarily, has been buying Australian issued corporate bonds over the last 30 days....this buying stopped yesterday.
dc CB 14:59 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
*while employment in professional and business services increased by 73,000 in December, temporary help services accounting for nearly half, or 34,000, of the gain.
*the most troubling aspect of today's jobs report, and perhaps the clearest explanation why there was no wage growth in December, is that the number of multiple job holders soared by 324,000 bringing the total to 7.738 million.
Multiple Jobholders Surge To Highest Since August 2008
Paris ib 14:53 GMT January 8, 2016
What Just Happend to the AUD?
Second wave of AUD selling under way. Break below 0.7000 but we may chop around from here. AUD remains more interesting on the crosses. AUD/JPY a giant sell. EUR/AUD still a buy. Economic outlook for AUD and Australia still very, very clouded. And the Government strategy to deal with that? There is none. Oh, except for sabotaging the real estate market. Top points for idiocy there.
Problems big and growing
london red 14:47 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
ftse100 look set for a really bad finish to the day and week. may end up 1% dwn just squinting at the chart. as for s&p if we are in bear mkt they will sell off to finish zero or dwn on the day. they have been buying most dips intraday, yest they didnt.
Belgrade TD 14:47 GMT January 8, 2016
Daily TA trade
its not optimal nfp but still it's enough to stabilize stock market, at least, for rest of the day ...
GVI Forex john bland 14:33 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Take your lead from stox today. At some point they will realize, like the forex market has, that the data (payrolls) are flawed
Livingston nh 14:32 GMT January 8, 2016
FED
Jobs are no longer the guide to fed policy despite the slavish adherence to NAIRU - inflation is the key
re:wages - "In December, health care employment rose by 39,000, with most of the increase occurring
in ambulatory health care services (+23,000) and hospitals (+12,000). Job growth in health care averaged 40,000 per month in 2015, compared with 26,000 per month in 2014."
The growth in these jobs drags down Avg hrly earnings while the slow growth in higher paying Manufacturing (flat in 2015) and Mining (declined)
Employment and Inflation are only tangentially related - the health care jobs add to the COSTS of the biggest industry (inflation) while keeping wage growth low
london red 14:27 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
if the previous days have been very volatile, the nfp day tends to be a damp squib we folks looking to tap out for the week. straddles were cheap and id suggest money has already been taken there. euro tested top end of 85-91 and failed initial test. watch the hourly close. at or below 200hma signals lower. towards hours high signals abv 109 and 10926-46 test. but vols low so dont look for extension of yesterdays high or todays low unless we can something new.
dc CB 14:27 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
weather??? hahahahahah
Reality: we needed a good number to bolster FAILING Credibilty of the FED. The SToX MarkIT Eveing Newz everyday this week has cast an evil eye on the Fed's failures.
PAR 14:24 GMT January 8, 2016
FED
Reply
No rate hike with zero wage growth. Sell the dollar.
GVI Forex john bland 14:16 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Markets thinking twice now about the jobs data. I warned earlier about the weather effects here today. Most of the U.S. saw record high temperatures in November and mostly in December and the seasonal adjustments to the figures were obviously flawed. Average earnings were weak.
fwiw, January temps are back to near normal.
london red 14:11 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
10885/91 if taken out can have a crack at yest high but may be option related selling there and as by 108, folks taking profit. for me still looks like mkt ready to do away with week. if yen can stay under 118 then may get some sparks.
Livingston nh 14:07 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Treasurys not too impressed by NFP - took back a little of yesterday afternoon's equities induced yield decline (2 yr still under 1%) // stox may not be able to maintain all of the opening level into a weekend
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:06 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Third time up saw 1.0854 taken out following equities.
GVI Forex john bland 14:06 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Bank Report--
"BLS data on those not working due to bad weather shows NOV+DEC totals that average 283k since 2005. 2015's NOV+DEC total is a below-average 222k. Other notable mild years include 2006 (224k not working) and 2011 (187k)
so about +60k of weather effect in both november and december"
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
I posted this on GVI Forex and proved to be dead on with post-NFP bounce high at 1.0853. Contact Me to get access on a regular basis
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:58 GMT 01/08/2016 - My Profile
1.0854 so far proving tough
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:48 GMT 01/08/2016 - My Profile
Key intra-day EURUSD level is the former low at 1.0854
Singapore SGFXTrader 13:55 GMT January 8, 2016
USD Bulls, Have FUN soon!
Reply
To all the USD bulls out there, time to lick your wounds.
Happy bleeding =p
Hillegom Purk 13:54 GMT January 8, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Reply
If entries are good this one stays what it is, and both ways, an atm thingy...
Loonie interesting now....
london red 13:44 GMT January 8, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
headline strong but ahe soft and will construction restaurants and temp be in part unwound in january. ahe is going to suffer from negative baseline effects in january so is likely to get dragged down below 2.5% y/y. not saying much for inflation. i suspect a lot of folk taken profit down by 108 and i dont think we will see much action unless topside tested and since dollar not really running away its poss.
Tallinn viies 13:29 GMT January 8, 2016
eurusd
Reply
covered euro short at 1,0865
Belgrade TD 13:20 GMT January 8, 2016
Daily TA trade
Buy OTHER
Entry: 4335 Target: 4410/4500/+ Stop: <4300
Long NAS100 here ... without stop during nfp ... first target is reachable IMO ...
Amman wfakhoury 13:17 GMT January 8, 2016
Gold , AUDUSD , GBPUSD into big move
Gold moved in zig zag pattern
AUDUSD and GBPUSD ready to continue ..so buy add buy
if decline.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
london red 12:47 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
nfp. a bit more, yen gbp perspective. yen weekly close +/- 11796/118 v imp. its 38.2 of rally. theyve been under 118 overnight tripped stops and pulled in some shorts at same time. if rallies much abv 11855 then might see squeeze of those shorts. but if falls back under 118 this afta i doubt anyone will stand in way.
cable. 14567 is the prev low. it has been broken but mkt needs a wkly close below here to tgt 140/142xx. a failure to do so might see some buying next week, the first of the year probably. there is poss one last flight for cable topping 149-153 max (gd pt to sell incidentally) but needs to avoid close below 14567 this week and also end of month as well.
GVI Forex john bland 12:43 GMT January 8, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
8-Jan Friday
13:30 US/CA- Employment
9-Jan Saturday
01:30 CN- CPI
Paris ib 12:35 GMT January 8, 2016
Oil, Geopolitics and the Ruble
Purk when the market is so clearly manipulated and no longer responsive to supply and demand queues things start to get tricky. It's an ugly market to get involved in. Too many murky geopolitical forces behind the scenes moving the price. I posted as information, background information really, not as a trade recommendation. The only recommendation that can be made is: stay away IMVHO.
london red 11:57 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
euro/nfp. daily straddle cheap by historical standards only 75 pips while ny cut barely half a fig. daily puts initial sup/res at 108 and yesterdays high which itself it a whisker below prev high in mid 40's. so unless these two sides are broken, folk may call it a week pretty soon after london fix unless data can surprise well. mkt set up for a btter number given adp and weather so anything under 200k a disappointment. due to seasonals any increase in ahe is going to bump up the y/y so there the bar isnt so high.
Hillegom Purk 11:16 GMT January 8, 2016
Oil, Geopolitics and the Ruble
So everybody is going to short oily boily now? Nice, 50 is on the way then... Bare in mind that there is some unfinished business somewhere around 30-29...
Paris ib 10:41 GMT January 8, 2016
Oil, Geopolitics and the Ruble
An oil price of 7 dollars a barrel will have interesting consequences... if they can get it there.
Paris ib 10:39 GMT January 8, 2016
Oil, Geopolitics and the Ruble
Reply
"The United States government is frantically trying to hold the oil price down to destroy the Russian economy
Oil went down to $7.00 a barrel in 1985, and that low figure is where the US government is now trying to drive the price down....
The problem is... that all surplus oil could be wiped out in the first or second quarters of 2016. By mid-2016, oil prices should start surging dramatically, even with additional oil from Iran.
So the US government strategy has now metastasized into trying to destroy the Russian economy before the oil price inevitably recovers. That would give the US government a window of opportunity spanning only the next six months."
6 months? Gonna be an interesting start to the year.
Pepe Escobar
Israel Dil 10:30 GMT January 8, 2016
GOLD: 2016 target
2% into 2016 already 15% of the whole target done. some locked at $55+ and using same same add same add parameters. Patience, crude will do fine
GVI Forex john bland 10:19 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
EURUSD dead flat 50 period ma on the 5min chart (1.0873).
I usually don't like to get involved in trying to predict what essentially is a random number. People much smarter than I can't do it either. However, I wonder this time around if the seasonal adjustments will be able to account for the "el nino" much milder than usual December weather. I think we see a reading above the +220K level.
A reading below 200K under the circumstances would be very weak imho
Saar KaL 09:50 GMT January 8, 2016
USDCAD...would not be surprised
Same thing with gold
1,125.0120 1,085.0640
1,216.4575 1,173.2624 ---> Next week's range...WTF?
GVI Forex john bland 09:34 GMT January 8, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Mixed UK November trade.
GVI Forex john bland 09:33 GMT January 8, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Trade GBP (bn) November 2015
U.K. Charts
-- NEWS ALERT --
Visible Trade: -10.60 vs. -10.5 exp. vs. -11.8 (r -11.2)prev.
non-EU: -2.50 vs. -3.00 exp. vs. -3.73 (r -3.58) prev.
TTN: Live News
GVI Forex john bland 09:26 GMT January 8, 2016
Friday's Trading Thread
Reply
DAX+98
DJ +210
SP +26
wti $33.65 +0.38
EUR mixed to weaker on its crosses
Chinese Markets recovered
Focus on U.S. Jobs data later
GVI Forex john bland 09:11 GMT January 8, 2016
EUR/USD
Zeus great call on EURUSD short !
GVI Forex john bland 08:51 GMT January 8, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Swiss CPI December 2015
--EARLIER DATA NEWS--
mm: -0.20% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
yy: -1.30% vs. -1.20% exp. vs. -1.40% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Hillegom Purk 07:48 GMT January 8, 2016
loonie shorts
Reply
This pair is still a tricky one... It keeps on ticking to the highs. Like e/jpy did once some years ago. But after the streched moves are out than it drops, pnly question remains, from where..
It is simple, for now it is a long... until is not... :)
hillegom Purk 07:30 GMT January 8, 2016
Purks trading thread 7-1-2016
The last short e/u 10886 closed at 10857. This whole trade was Ok. Never long a pair when streched. Better wait for good entries. ..
hillegom Purk 06:40 GMT January 8, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Eur/cad entries getting better and better. 15411 closed at 15299 for 112 pips.
hillegom Purk 06:37 GMT January 8, 2016
Purks trading thread 7-1-2016
Good dday.10935 closed. 10925 closed. 10901 closed. All at 10876. The first is still open at b/e.
This first entry was way of...
Hong Kong 06:14 GMT January 8, 2016
AceTrader Jan 8: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply
08 Jan 2016 06:16GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr trades relatively narrowly in post-Tokyo lunch session after intra-day rally from 117.49 to as high as 118.60 due to broad-based active cross-selling in yen after China CB fixed the mid-point rate of the yuan higher, this was the 1st time in 9 days. Intra-day relief rally in Chinese stocks (Shanghai composite is currently up 3.3%) after Chinese authority lifted the so-called circuit breaker mechanism to halt trading.
Looks like range trading within 118.00/60 range would continue as Asian traders are exhausted after 2 days of wild swings in early Asian trading.
However, European traders may well observe indicated range as next market focus is the release of key U.S. payrolls report. Street forecast for December jobs growth to be 200k n if the actual no. meets of beats estimate, then dlr will have more room to rally further to recoup this week's losing streak, on the other hand, if the data surprise to the downside, then another wave of broad-based dlr bashing would occur.
In the meantime, offers are tipped at 118.60/70 and more above with stops reported above 119.00.
Initial bids re touted at 118.00-117.90 and more below, suggesting consolidation with a firm bias is envisaged.
KL KL 04:30 GMT January 8, 2016
EUR/USD
Doommmmshhh
Happy to get out now 90% of Eurusd short here 1.08785..... rest 1.09 keeping for almost 7 hours is Long term hold for Ninja....LOL. anyway...those Long indices seems to be working nicely after China Stepped in and PUMP YUAN money...a 400 point Pop or Drop on NFP??? Who Knows...all a game.....DYOR..DFM DLTm...imvho andoff to sleep....need to wake up for NFP!!!.... 186,000 K added...my inside info.....so what....??? no power to move market with this information....
sydney 02:51 GMT January 8, 2016
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USA ZEUS 01:25 GMT January 8, 2016
USD/JPY
USA ZEUS 20:35 GMT 01/07/2016
Long USD/JPY at 117.60
1/2 USD/JPY Longs closed at 118.30 for a rapid + 70 pip gain.
Remaining at B/E
Cheers!
USA ZEUS 01:23 GMT January 8, 2016
EUR/USD
USA ZEUS 20:26 GMT 01/07/2016
Short EUR/USD at 1.0938
1/2 EUR/USd shorts closed at 1.0885 for a rapid + 53 pips gain. Remaining at B/E.
Cheers!
USA ZEUS 00:59 GMT January 8, 2016
EUR/USD
USA ZEUS 20:26 GMT 01/07/2016
Short EUR/USD at 1.0938
Ah yes Purk Purkson...the legend. No stories needed. Great to see you as well.
Take gains at your leisure.
Cheers!
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