Forex Forum Archive for 01/10/2016

dc CB 23:32 GMT January 10, 2016
Fun With Covers

well apparently Barron's got the msg about not stoking Stock Market Fear...but the Cover had been chosen, because it was just such an obvious Cover considering, and was already at the printers.

So they walked it back with this video.
Dateline 01/08/16 4:00PM

So MSM across the board: Nothing to see here. Move Along.

Barron's Buzz: Don't Panic Over Stocks Turmoil

KL KL 23:26 GMT January 10, 2016
Short EURUSD

OUT...90% here 1.0950...wow chased to 1.09685...in increasing power, tenacity and style....LOL....not complaining and done the monthly quota.....LOL...leave the rest for the BULL rats to eat at 1,09579....LOL


happy start to the week...now to focus on the markets.....LOL...gl gt ALL...remember the Chinese New Year Rally...the Santa Rally Replacement...If it does not happen then the Easter Rally.....otherwise the October Crash.....LOL

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:13 GMT January 10, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

I pointed out the risk of stops getting run and first level has been triggered but 1,0990-00 should be tough, High 1.0970

I warned about the risk of volatility and false starts in the first week of the new year This turned out to be a good warning as a risk off mood saw the fx market shrug off a strong US employment report. This sets the stage for the coming week where a light economic calendar will leave the focus on stocks and China to set the risk mood. In my outlook video I look at a progression on charts to put the broader picture in perspective and where stops may be resting in the shorter-term charets.

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

KL KL 23:07 GMT January 10, 2016
Short EURUSD

Ultra relentless now short eurusd 1.09623.....no reason required ..>SELL!

KL KL 23:02 GMT January 10, 2016
Short EURUSD
Reply   
Dhooomsh...

ding ding...2nd cherry bite short EURUSD relentless 1.09455....bombs away!!...no need to think with good NFP...

DYOR..DFM..DLTm..imvho...gl gt

Sydney ACC 22:33 GMT January 10, 2016
Restrictions on Chinese Capital Remittances
Reply   
Following contained in an article on the UK Telegraph website:

Chinese buyers have been locked out by state controls which mean each person is restricted from taking more than $50,000 (�34,000) a year out of the country.

Can anyone confirm authenticity.

Link

GVI Forex john bland 22:09 GMT January 10, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply   
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

11-Jan Monday
00:00 JP- Holiday
12-Jan Tuesday
15:00 US- JOLTS Survey
13:00 13-Jan Wednesday
15:30 US- Crude
14-Jan Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
15-Jan Friday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- prelim University of Michigan Survey

GVI Forex john bland 22:07 GMT January 10, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
Reply   
early prices (S&P old)

nw kw 20:59 GMT January 10, 2016
Plebe Play

if your trading cad and gbp look at gbp/cad are indicating if chart moves up or down you can se if gbp will continue weakness or cad weakness and related to oil.

Mtl JP 20:50 GMT January 10, 2016
Fun With Covers

at about 8.50 some think Alcoa is a bargain buy

dc CB 20:18 GMT January 10, 2016
Plebe Play

Instead This is the Top Story.

Another Powerball drawing failed to produce a winner on Saturday after reaching a staggering $900 million jackpot earlier in the day -- by far the largest ever.

Now lottery officials estimate the jackpot is already at $1.3 billion ahead of the next drawing on Wednesday night.

t hit $700 million on Thursday after nobody won on Wednesday night -- the 18th drawing without a winner.

The buying frenzy continued all day Saturday. A few hours before the drawing, the Texas Lottery reported that $5,838,152 in Powerball tickets were sold in a one-hour period.

The odds of winning are 1 in 292 million.

Powerball is sold in 44 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

dc CB 19:50 GMT January 10, 2016
Fun With Covers

Sunday Edition of the WashPost only notes the Stock selling with a Bloomberg boxed in above the weekly stock quotes page. The same thing they publish every Sunday. Not a single mention of the MarkIt turmoil.

Same in the NYTimes no mention in the Sunday print edition.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

By the way, earnings season kicks off tomorrow with Alcoa

Amsterdam JN 17:01 GMT January 10, 2016
Forex Forecast 11-15-Jan 2016
Reply   
Forex Forecast for 11-15 January 2016

First, about the forecast for the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was fully implemented during the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis, the pair first rose to resistance at 1.0900 and then went down, losing 200 points quite quickly. After that, considering the situation on stock markets, the pair returned to 1.0925, recovering the same 200 points;
- it was assumed that after a certain rise, GBP/USD should reach a low of 1.4555 by mid-January. Nonetheless, this happened a week earlier as the pair arrived there last Friday;
- the forecast for USD/JPY turned out correct only in terms of the trend direction. Both indicators and graphical analysis implied some advantage for the bears but no one expected that it would be so big � instead of the expected 70-100 points, the dollar lost all 300 points;
- the prediction for USD/CHF was also 100% correct in regards to the trend direction. The pair was supposed to rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. However, developments on stock markets sharply increased the pair�s volatility, and, as a result, it was able to get up to 1.0123 and then went down to support at 0.9923.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- on their return from holidays, the analysts predict a sideways trend for EUR/USD in a 1.0750-1.1000 range. Graphical analysis on H1 agrees with this, predicting first a rebound from the upper boundary, a drop and again a return to the upper levels of the range. On larger timeframes, graphical analysis of D1 and 67% of the indicators on W1 continue to insist on the pair's drop at least to around 1.0450-1.0515 within 10-14 days;
- it�s quite clear that all indicators point downward for GBP/USD. However, graphical analysis on all timeframes and most experts agree that the pair has already reached its local bottom and will be oscillating around a 1.4500 pivot point during the week. The main support is at 1.4450, resistance � 1.4600;
- according to the analysts and the readings of graphical analysis, the USD/JPY pair has also hit its local low and is expected to enter a sideways trend in a 117.20-119.50 range. The pivot point will be at 117.90, and, in line with graphical analysis on H4, the pair should rise over this level in the first half of the week and drop to last Friday�s values by the end of the week;
- the scenario of the second half of December may replay for USD/CHF. At least, it�s echoed by the analysts as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. According to this forecast, the pair will be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. In the short run, graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to rebound from support at 0.9920 and move to resistance at 1.0015, after which the pair should go down again, bounce off the said support level and try to break through resistance in an effort to reach 1.0050.

Roman Butko,

Mtl JP 16:09 GMT January 10, 2016
ECB

PAR 15:50 before the end is near for Mr Draghi and his friend Mrs Merkel you will have to get through 5,000 Swiss Army Troops Will Protect World's Billionaires During Annual Davos Boondoggle to disturb their $55 caesar salad and $43 hot dog

Mtl JP 15:58 GMT January 10, 2016
WEEK AHEAD - ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS

China needs $5 trillion to save its economy � and it might not work anyway

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-needs-5-trillion-to-save-its-economy-2016-1

According to Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research, who is widely considered one of the best (if not the best) China analyst in the world, it's going to take more money than you could possibly imagine.

"Larger credit injections are possible, but we would need to see CNY37.5trn in net new credit in 2016 to achieve the same magnitude credit impulse as in 2009," "Other monetary policy levers are either approaching exhaustion, or have limited effectiveness in staving off the deflationary wave China is contending with from the slowdown in secondary industry and overcapacity," "What would adding further credit on top of what is already the biggest corporate credit boom the world has seen do?" "That leaves China's authorities with only one monetary lever: the currency," Chu said in her email. "Hence, it is difficult to see how the CNY doesn't weaken significantly from here. The questions are what magnitude of move, when, and what path does it take? All of that largely depends on the situation with capital outflows and growth."

PAR 15:50 GMT January 10, 2016
ECB
Reply   
ECB ' s QE and negative interest rates policies are a complete disaster. Herr Fritz after working for 45 years in a German factory was counting to get a little interest on his lifelong savings . After Draghi decided that saving is bad and Herr Fritz had to pay to keep the savings from in lifelong work in his bank saving account.
Herr Fritzes well educated banker convinced the poor old man to switch his savings from a bank deposit account ,which cost money , to a DAX linked bank created product which would make money for Herr Fritz.

Then the DAX collapses 10 % and Herr Fritzes fisical and financial health is deteriorating rather quickly .

Meanwhile signor Draghi is dining and making jokes with some billionaire hedge fund managers in one of the world most exclusive restaurants.

In this environment the end is near for Mr Draghi and his friend Mrs Merkel.

Mtl JP 12:15 GMT January 10, 2016
WEEK AHEAD - ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
At 429 The Baltic Dry Index a new record low

America is not importing enough

Mtl JP 01:39 GMT January 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

nh no worry there are bigger pet-peeves
like Vlads �Leaders Number One� perfume available in Moscow only

Livingston nh 00:13 GMT January 10, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

jp- HAHH, aaarrggh I have apparently lost another lengthy response to the vagaries of CYBERSPACE

GVI Forex john bland 00:09 GMT January 10, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 11 January 2016

January 8, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 11, 2016. Trading News Calendar

• Far East: JP- HOliday
• Europe: No Major Data
• North America: No Major Data

11-Jan Monday
00:00 JP- Holiday
12-Jan Tuesday
15:00 US- JOLTS Survey
13:00 13-Jan Wednesday
15:30 US- Crude
14-Jan Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
15-Jan Friday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- prelim University of Michigan Survey