Livingston nh 22:53 GMT January 11, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off As Of European Close
The late equity "rally" was very narrow as market internals stayed strongly negative but chart turned positive a bit after 2PM - new lows were 606 and A/D was 2to1 neg and volume about 3to2 neg so very focused on rising stox while crushing the number of decliners // VIX declined -- bizarre
FI took a goodly hit but the 2 yr is well below 1%
SO there was no basis for any reliable correlations but the socio economic problems in Europe (broader than EU or EURzone) are expanding -- Merkel do-gooder (the EU equivalent of Pres Obama) can't go to Davos because maybe there will be a COUP (reference to 3rd world leaders joke), the bond world is starting (early) to realize that the countries that make up the EU have sovereignty and the EU, well, basically none (see the UN for analogy), in Spain maybe Catalonia will do a successful Scotland (the key is Catalans are not waiting for a referendum), Poland and Germany are breaking up, Draghi ECB is doing QE just as respected, reputable organizations (unlike moi) and non CB employed economists are finally starting to destroy the underpinning of the global glut in savings, secular stagnation and liquidity trap as justification for buying programs AND pointing out the obvious failures of previous episodes (Ben and Larry and Paul are scrambling)
History didn't start yesterday and for out of touch EU politicians/bureaucrats/elites the Great Unwashed is about to remind them
Hillegom Purk 19:30 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
ok enough is enough: last out at 15462.
Hillegom Purk 19:21 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Well i do not know if my stop is going to survive, so the following: I missed the first high 15518-15521, so i waited for another run to the highs. Entries are getting better and better and reward also because i now know that it gives back at least 40 pips (15515-15575 last run) and maybe more every day.
I continue this to do every day and at some point eur/cad will see this huge correction....
Hillegom Purk 19:06 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
1/4 out at 15482, rest at 15505.
Hillegom Purk 19:06 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
1/4 out at 15482, rest at 15505.
Hillegom Purk 19:01 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
hmm half out at 15495, rest b/e
Hillegom Purk 18:39 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Reply
15511 in. starting small. Stop 157, adding scaling, risk, its all here!
GVI Forex john bland 18:33 GMT January 11, 2016
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
12-Jan Tuesday
15:00 US- JOLTS Survey
13:00 13-Jan Wednesday
15:30 US- Crude
14-Jan Thursday
00:30 AU- Employment
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
15-Jan Friday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- prelim University of Michigan Survey
GVI Forex john bland 18:14 GMT January 11, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
wti continues to erode new LOD (and recent low) of $31.08.
GVI Forex john bland 18:05 GMT January 11, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off As Of European Close
Weak oil pulling equities lower across the board, It looked earlier like equity traders had gotten set up for a rebound in stocks, but such a rebound has not materialized yet. Les see what happens in the afternoon session. EURUSD has been boosted by falling shares, but it recovery has been very reluctant.
london red 18:03 GMT January 11, 2016
USD/CAD
loonie. prev high 14261 prev low 14310. youd expect a pullback at least intraday off those, if not daily. the 76.4 at 14510 should solicit larger selling similar to that seen at the 61.8 at 13468 where we came back to the prev high of 128xx. if the 76.4 does not see a pullback, you should expect us to be in the midst of some turmoil not seen for a few years.
GVI Forex john bland 17:44 GMT January 11, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Lockhart
-- economy likely to justify more rate hikes in 2016.
-- inflation expectations well anchored.
-- economy likely to grow 2-2.5% of higher.
Livingston nh 16:58 GMT January 11, 2016
USD/CAD
Reply
Had been expecting a panic in oil and haven't gotten it (yet) - unloading some USD/CAD
GVI Forex john bland 16:01 GMT January 11, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
wti $31.96 -1.18
LOD $31.86
Dragging S&P lower
Livingston nh 16:01 GMT January 11, 2016
STOX
Reply
see if Europe can hold onto stox gain as US equities fade -- Adv issues could not exceed decliners and volume at best was just even -- over 400 new lows after Fridays 550 plus
OPEX week so volatility pops -- WTI testing $32 again as CAD and NOK weaken //
Hillegom Purk 15:30 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Hillegom Purk 08:44 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad ranges: Reply
Right. For today we have facts: 15496-15370 = euhh..
So 15370---15620 or 15496-15290---
--------------------------------
Hmm missed the low by 6,6 pips. Getting better and better with it...
Up up up, or consolidation.
Amman wfakhoury 15:11 GMT January 11, 2016
AUDUSD,GBPUSD
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 13:17 GMT January 8, 2016
Gold , AUDUSD , GBPUSD into big move: Reply
Gold moved in zig zag pattern
AUDUSD and GBPUSD ready to continue ..so buy add buy
if decline.
Paris ib 14:54 GMT January 11, 2016
Oil, Geopolitics and the Ruble
Ruble taking it on the chin as OIL continues downhill.
I have no idea if market manipulators are behind these moves but would not be surprised given OIL has been a manipulated market since always.
Shah of Iran
Hillegom Purk 14:36 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad SHORTS
Reply
Right, more a less now at 15300, and will have to wait if this is the pullback's end or more to come....
Mtl JP 14:06 GMT January 11, 2016
CNY
do u think players believe it ?
Livingston nh 14:05 GMT January 11, 2016
CNY
CNY will continue to weaken, whatever yardstick is chosen -- it moves towards a domestic (service based?) demand economy but that is a slow process
GVI Forex 13:35 GMT January 11, 2016
CNY
Reply
08:17 (CN) PBoC's Ma: Yuan should not be pegged to the U.S. dollar; Stability of CNY against the basket needs to be improved,
- Consensus is to refer more to currency basket- CNY fixing to now take into account TWI basket stability
- CNY pressure will abate after the market gets used to the basket system
- There will be no tight peg to the currency basket. Regime could move to a crawling peg versus the basket
- Two-way CNY volatility against USD to increase, but PBoC to appropriately limit CNY volatility against USD
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT January 11, 2016
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
Note my video outlook:
Stops run above EURUISD 1,0945 but met resistance in my 45-90 zone
There was not a conclusive hourly close above 1.0938, only a marginal one
See the one hour chart I posted earlier on GVI Forex, the hourly trendline was tested just now and held
There is a setup for a Monday Effect. Send me an EMAIL if you want details on this pattern
I warned about the risk of volatility and false starts in the first week of the new year This turned out to be a good warning as a risk off mood saw the fx market shrug off a strong US employment report. This sets the stage for the coming week where a light economic calendar will leave the focus on stocks and China to set the risk mood. In my outlook video I look at a progression on charts to put the broader picture in perspective and where stops may be resting in the shorter-term charets.
Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead
Hong Kong 10:00 GMT January 11, 2016
AceTrader Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
Reply
Update Time: 11 Jan 2016 08:29 GMT
USD/JPY - 117.60
Despite dollar's intra-day initial selloff to a fresh 4-1/2 month trough at 116.69 ahead of Asian open, subsequent rebound above 117.00 level suggests recent decline has possibly made a temporary low there but a daily close above 117.95 is needed to confirm this view and yield stronger retracement towards 118.84 before prospect of a retreat.
Below 116.69 would confirm recent decline has once again resumed and extend weakness towards daily chart objective at 116.18 (2015 August low) later.
GVI Forex john bland 09:59 GMT January 11, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
DAX +74
futures
DJ +74
SP +11
Chinese Bourses closed down again today, while EUR is mostly weaker on its crosses except vs. the JPY, reversing openng trends.
kl shawn 09:33 GMT January 11, 2016
buy audusd
Reply
looks like audusd has bottomed...
daily close above 0.70 would be nice start
Hillegom Purk 08:44 GMT January 11, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Reply
Right. For today we have facts: 15496-15370 = euhh..
So 15370---15620 or 15496-15290---
That is a nice range and trust to do some shorts. CAD stays weak but streched, streched, streched, and streched!!!
Hong Kong 02:17 GMT January 11, 2016
AceTrader Jan 11: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply
11 Jan 2016 01:18GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing loss in Asian morning (Japanese financial markers are closed for 'Coming of Age' holiday) after initial selloff below Friday's 117.23 low to a fresh 4-month trough of 116.69 in Australia. Traders cited renewed selloff in the S. African rand triggered renewed wave of unwinding of carry trades, triggering stop-loss selling in usd/yen.
Food for thought, Fri's CFTC report revealed Japanese net positioning turned net long for the 1st time last week since Oct 2012, this explains the previous mentality of selling yen for USD in anticipation of future U.S. rate hikes has proved to be wrong.
Expect minor calm before the storm as market participants await the official fixing of the yuan's mid-point rate at 01:15GMT as well as performance of Chinese stocks, so pay attention of the intra-day price swings in the CSI300 for clue.
Offers are noted at 117.35/45 and more above with stops above 117.60/70.
Some bids are noted at 117.00-116.90 and more below with stops touted below 116.60.
KL KL 00:30 GMT January 11, 2016
Short EURUSD
Exiting the remaining 10% eurusd short here 1.0932... Give the EURUSD Bulls rats to eat....LOL.....somehow the mentality is Recovery is happening in Euro Zone and Recession in USA....that is what the NFP is telling us hind sight....BUT in the midst of more rate hike.....EURUSD should hit higher Just to delay the effect of your correct analysis.....3 days later.....ALL a game
set bombs above 1.09598....and off to work in the gardens
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