I believe about 1-1/2 25bp rate hikes are now priced in for 2016. I will check out Fed Funds futures when I get a chance. The two-yr note yield has fallen to 0.901%. I believe it peak at around 1.09% on Dec 28.
For the Commodity currencies (+ China). Three month moving averages of Mfg PMI data. On balance, over the past two years trends are clearly tilted down, especially for the U.S. (blue). Only Australia may have bottomed out from extreme weakness.
Here is a comparative PMI Manufacturing chart I keep. I use three month moving averages to smooth the lines. I use Mfg data because it tends to lead the economy. On balance, over the past two years trends are mostly tilted down, especially in the U.S. (blue). U.K. has turned mixed. The EZ is about dead flat and Japan might be improving.
about 70/75% priced in. i dont think it should be anyway as much as that personally though i would buy the dip that would follow. if they do cut mkt will look for more so i doubt there will be too much downside as folk will look for boc to stay dovish.
Amman wfakhoury 16:06 GMT January 14, 2016 EURUSD Reply This signal issued in the morning
EURUSD 10830 confirmed 10868 return.
It seems that almost everyone is calling for a rate cut by the Bank of Canada next Wednesday (Jan 20). Must be priced into CAD by now?
Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT January 14, 2016 EUR/USD
Amman wfakhoury 21:47 GMT 01/13/2016
Amman wfakhoury 21:02 GMT 01/13/2016
zic zac pattern till 10885.
and we have previous confirmed level 10990
10886 reached the first target.
Possibly decline to 10830 b4 going up.
Declined to 10830 b4 it goes up to 10990
09:56 (US) Fed's Bullard (hawk; FOMC voter in 2016): does not see much more appreciation in dollar going forward - Q&A
- expects divergence in monetary policy between US and Europe has been priced in- should help curb further increases in value of the dollar
- does expect some problems in parts of oil market related to decline in oil prices
Interesting tweet from NANEX. Re: Citadel (yes Ben Bernanke's shop)
(fyi: IEX is a fair, simple and transparent market center dedicated to investor protection. IEX is the first buyside owned venue, and IEX was the first Alternative Trading System ("ATS") to publicly publish its Form ATS, demonstrating its commitment to transparency. IEX is currently seeking SEC approval to become a registered national securities exchange.
IEX is a dark pool, more formally known as an alternative trading system, based in the United States. Started by Brad Katsuyama, it opened for its first day of trading on October 25, 2013)
that 195 level would be back up to the neck or thereabouts of the mini shs. squinting at your chart they many want to squeeze sellers of ma cross too.
maybe an indicator for others to go by put stocks usually dont go down as far as i expect them to so i average long s&p calls only a handful of times a year and its always on a strong sell off intraday. in any case thats my play i expect i will miss out or make the long call. i doubt janet wont have my back.
red...30Y at 1PM. Last in Dec went for 2.978%. currently 2.867.
OPEX: SPY has PUTS 181,000 at 190 and 189K at 195. Nearest over 100K OI in the CALLS is at 195 with 110,000. all the other near strikes are below 40K.
So 195 is the magnet for Stabilization into Fri afternoon. whether that works is another story. See how it goes after they sell that $13bln in 30s.
Next week then down ??? But Monday Stocks are Closed
This is the first time I can recall making a comment on the trend in weekly jobless claims rising. My focus is always on the four-week moving average (red line) an early harbinger of an economic slowdown?
JPM reported. Stock up over $1 in preMarket.
JPM's balance sheet $2.352 trillion, down $221 billion from a year ago.
JPM increased in loan reserve by $89 million to $13.555 billion.
"Credit costs of $81mm primarily reflecting higher reserves driven by Oil & Gas" within the IB group and a "reserve build of ~$100mm driven by $60mm in Oil & Gas and $26mm in Metals & Mining"
Goldman SEZ: Abby Joseph Cohen, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Global Markets Institute.
The fair value for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is 2,10011% Upside in S&P 500 After an `Emotional' Selloff. “We need to put things into perspective. Stocks are probably the best place to be.”
07:30 *(EU) ECB DEC MINUTES: 10bps cut in Deposit Rate seen as leaving room for more policy action; action seen to ensure price stability
- Reiterates view that monetary policy to remain accommodative for as long as necessary
- Risk on inaction clearly outweighed risk of no action
- Reiterates prepared to act using all instruments within mandate
- Possible downward drift in EU Harmonized CPI (HICP) expectations hard to reverse
- Council not unduly influenced by market expectations
- Some members sought a more aggressive cut of 20bps
- Others members concerned about side effects of a cut over 10bps
- Some members did not support policy change or would only support limited adjustments
- Option of expanding monthly purchases by more than 6 months and frontloading raised
- To review technical parameters in spring 2016
there is a procedure for such a situation ... and this procedure has been respected ... start a war because of the errors is insane ... situation is resolved diplomatically without unnecessary casualties as it should be ...
Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced that American sailors freed after it was determined that they were not deliberately entered into Iranian waters ... If Turkey can bring down a Russian plane, why Iran can't stop the American ship ... and what humiliation ? ... soldiers are not meant to die for stupid mistake!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:35 GMT January 14, 2016 eurusd
adding to what viies said, re options, from what i see there is a lot of downside cover which is making progress to the downside difficult for euro. topside is less covered particularly next week. this week there a bit 110-111 so its unlikely we move abv there this week but next week almost nothing abv 110 relatively speaking.
"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy in order to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 13 January 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion, and so to re-invest the £8.4 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the January 2016 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility."
00:30 AU- Employment
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision 15-Jan Friday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- prelim University of Michigan Survey
Tallinn viies 11:26 GMT January 14, 2016 eurusd Reply I think january lows has been made on brent crude.
possibilities to see bounce up to 34,00 which is more than 10% up from here.
brent will bring along eurusd.
I have been many months bearish on euro but now I see possibility that sharks may start stop hunt soon. because important levels very close.
backround of the moves comes mostly from expectations regarding ECB and FED moves...
Current scenario which is prevailing that ECB has still need to cut rates further as lower oil doesnt help to fullfill 2% inflation target.
other prevailing view is that FED mentioned they gonna hike rate 4 times this year.
Last weeks people starting to question those prevailing expectations. More likely that ECB will not lower rates anytime soon and FED will hike but maybe only 2 times per year. So eurusd rate needs to reprice based on changed outlook.
Euro short positions on IMM still very big 156K contracts. there is room for stup hunt. last year in january IMM short were approx 220k contracts. eurusd were at that 1,05. then in august when euro traded for a day at 1,17 the IMM chorts were appr 60k contracts. basically 1200 points move on eurusd ment approx 160k contracts. if to look current IMM short positions then those shorts (156k contracts) has been built with eurusd move from 1,1450 to 1,0550. let say average rate is 1,1000.
those short position built up from august 2015 till now. currently euro is trading near 1,09 and for unknown reasons for me can not go lower altough brent is down 30% from the highs of the january.
So for me things starting to look bit shaky if euro will be able to move above december top which is 1,1060. if stop hunt starts then 1,17 may come very quickly. just because there are too many short positions with average price too close to current market prices. last year when 160k short contracts were covered euro moved 1200 points. why not this time?
so as long as 1,1060 holds Im following my base scenario that euro may move down to parity but if 1,1060 key resistance taken I will treat january lows as yearly lows for 2016.
better to use opitions to covered upside risks but of course it can be done with spot and decent money management also.
eurgbp. 7606 is 100dma 7637 is 38.2 of 69/88. monthly close abv here points to 7740 the 50% and 7764, the prev low. youd expect some strong selling interest up there and at least a return to 7469/7500.
london red 10:23 GMT January 14, 2016 mpc Reply just a word to flash headlines from boe. gbp selling into meet as expected given talk of the mac running off with tail between his legs and giving up his 25bps increase bias. if he doesnt rates may stay at 8-1 and gbp likely gets a brief relief rally (the old chestnut that is travel/arrive). but take care to look past just the vote and check that some space cadet hasnt gone for a cut at the same time. this would still leave an 8-1 ratio but obviously would be highly bearish and see gbp dumped like never before. i doubt the mkt will get confused by such an outcome but its possible that it flashes higher on 8-1 print but then crashes if someone did indeed vote for cut as well as mac going back to 0 from +25.
I dont know Martin each to his own. every $ i make is a $ out an IB's pocket. I use a trading exchange so trade when i want at the price i want (thats important), but apart from that no paid reserach or flows. so thats the satisfaction. these days im cutting back as real investment and family take up more and more time.
As for that other thing, it was a bet i made a couple of years ago to prove a point. if i did it i had to write a book. but i really dont have the patience or time to do it tbh. this was all done at a bucket as well, no fancy flows or ebs.
NY DSP 09:54 GMT January 14, 2016 USD-CAD Reply SellUSDCAD Entry: Target: Stop:
Dont go for canadian dollar after the recent fall. The analyst are predicting a multiple dollar forecast including USD.
yes euro got a boost from ecb news. failed at 61.8 of 105/117 at 10939. needs hourly close abv there to renew upside. almost certainly folk sold into this rally as spoos not too bad yet. some covering trades likely at 109 108. below there todays low is 50% of 107/10970 so added significance. light data so likely to take risk from stocks.
I hope this does not violate forum rules ... for years I use these two services, tips and recommendations ... I'm not in any way associated with them, so this is absolutely just a share of my experience ... so, Jim Robinson with personal newsletters and Bottarelli Research with tips ... no links, google it ... its stock/futures/options/fx service ...
if this is against rules, Jim/John, please delete ...
GVI Forex john bland 09:31 GMT January 14, 2016 euro
Report: ECB's Weidmann said five members voted against the Dec 3 10bp cut in the deposit rate to -0.30%.
Not sure when this came out but may have caused the spike up?
Exclusive - many on ECB governing Council sceptical about need for further policy action in near term
Source: FxWire Pro - Central Bank
Gold Coast Martin 09:09 GMT January 14, 2016 Money not too tight to mention Reply london red 07:52 GMT 01/14/2016
The worlds most successful traders do not think about how much money they make on trade/s. They think and live for the moment when they place the trade. The money just follows naturally and is a by-product of that moment.
kl shawn 09:04 GMT January 14, 2016 euro Reply euro is heading to 1.0977?
jkt abel 08:40 GMT 01/14/2016
Why would I do that? ... I also have a mini account and I know that psychology of trading is not the same for mini and standard ... for example, if it goes wrong, I can tolerate minus 200pips on mini acc without problems and add more for avg price, its just a few bucks ... to repeat that on standard account - no way :)
Right, still a slot machine trading it both ways accordong to the rules of Chip...
Yesterday 15330-15670 = 340....
So today normal day would be 155-15750...
Of course this will not happen. If you THINK you have a gold mine, than you must go back to the basics. Will see what happens, and act accordingly...
Anything under 155 is a gift!
euro. will need a fall from stocks today or downside is a given. abv 10905/07 and the squeeze is on to tgt 10950/70. on downside sups at 10840/44 then 10820. stops likely likely below fig and also belo 50% of 105xx/110xx and also cloud base 83-88 key zone. below there no coming back today.
not bad return wakfhoury. but try turning 1000 into 100,000 in less than 3 years. as a side bet. i agreed to write a book if i did it. now thats the real challenge.
Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT January 14, 2016 He made profit 98% Reply This guy made profit 2574 $ for his 2623$ acc from 12/14/2015-01/14/2016
USD/JPY - ..... A sea of red is seen among Asia equity markets as o/n selloff in U.S. stocks triggered fresh wave of selling with the Nikkie leading the way and tumbled 4% shortly after the open on Thursday, so the Japanese yen and also the euro were bought as risk aversion trade whilst investors shunned risky currencies like aud, nzd and cad with the loonie falling again vs the usd in Asia to another fresh 12-year low of 1.4383.
Offers are tipped at 117.70/80 and more at 118.00/10, some bids are noted at 117.30-10 are with stops touted below 117.00, however, there is market chatter of fairly large stops below Monday's 4-1/2 month bottom at 116.69, suggesting selling dlr on intra-day recovery is the way to go.
Despite PBOC setting yuan's mid-point rate at 6.5616 (previous close at 6.5743), current offshore USD/CNH has currently jumped to 6.5000, suggesting dlr would remain under pressure vs the yen in Asian session.
19:30 *(AU) AUSTRALIA DEC EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -1.0K (first decline in 3 months and largest decline in 8 months) V -10.0KE;
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.8% V 5.9%E
- Participation Rate Rate: 65.1% v 65.2%e
- Full-Time Employment Change: 17.6K v +41.6K prior
- Part-Time Employment Change: -18.5K v +29.7K prior
- Hours Worked: +0.3M v -13.0M prior
- Prior employment change revised higher from +71.4K to +74.9K
Agree on everything but democratic governance -- socialism, do gooder, and fairness (whatever that is perceived to be) is the inevitable outcome of democracy -- capitalism is doomed in a modern democracy
the only real value of Fischer’s pretentious bloviation was that it was a reminder that the financial system of the world is in thrall to a tiny, insuperably arrogant posse of Keynesian academics who have invented from whole cloth a monetary theory of plenary control. They have effectively ended free market capitalism in the financial system and beyond and made democratic fiscal governance essentially irrelevant.
aud on the move south- China crapping already?
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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