dc CB 22:38 GMT January 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close
Walmart decisions hit home in DC
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
the company said it will not move forward with plans to build two new supercenters in the District — one that was planned for Skyland Town Center in Southeast Washington and the other at Capitol Gateway Marketplace in Northeast Washington.
“Our experience over the last three years operating our current stores in DC has given us a fuller view on building and operating stores in the District,” the company said in a statement. “This decision will not affect our three existing stores and we look forward to continue serving these customers in the future.”
In abandoning the two long-planned stores in economically depressed areas of the District, the retailer walked away from projects that had been central to negotiations that first allowed it to begin opening stores in the city in 2013.
Walmart executives said that the decision was based on several factors, including the cost.
“These two projects were really, really expensive to do, much more expensive than a typical supercenter would be to build,” said Mike Moore, Walmart’s executive vice president of Walmart supercenter stores, in an interview.
Moore added that the existing District stores were not as healthy as they thought they’d be.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do with the three stores that we currently have open,”
Walmart contacted D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser’s office Thursday with the news and met with her deputy mayor for economic development and two council members early Friday morning to explain the decision, administration officials said.
Talking to reporters shortly after the announcement was made, Bowser said she was fuming about the company’s decision, especially regarding Skyland, a major mixed-use development project to which D.C. had committed some $90 million in tax breaks, environmental remediation and other incentives.
“I’m blood mad about it, just like anybody would be for a project that has been promised to people … and is not happening,” Bowser said.
“They are not closing any stores in Washington, D.C., that is a good thing,” she said. But the mayor quickly turned back to the decision to pull out of Skyland. “We would have wanted them to do what they said they were going to do.”
Another city official, councilmember Yvette M. Alexander, also railed against Walmart’s move.
“I am angry and I take this personally as I advocated to bring them to Ward 7,” Alexander said in the statement.
Walmart
Mtl JP 22:09 GMT January 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-warns-stay-out-of-the-bathroom-2016-01-15?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Bill Gross warns: ‘Stay out of the bathroom’
Gross: Wealth effect constructed with paper - sometimes corrugated/strong, sometimes toilet/flimsy. Stay out of the bathroom.
Gross: "Carry Trade" Hedge portfolios need to meet margin calls on even high quality assets like TIPS and 30yr Swaps. Liquidation continues.
Gross: Fed talking tough - reluctant to imply a PUT. Their models are old fashioned - employment dominated. Too bad for markets.
GVI Forex john bland 20:55 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Atlanta Fed tracking 4Q15 GDP estimate lowered to 0.6% from 0.8% saar.
Mtl JP 20:24 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Report paving way for Iran sanctions relief likely on Saturday: source
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSKCN0UT275
dc CB 20:19 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Dave's ETF Digest - last evening's commemts
_____________________________________________
To be sure, we joked that Bullard bailed out the market again, but as of moments ago it is no longer a laughing matter because in a note released by Jefferies' economist Thomas Simons, it was the Bullard comments that were again laid out as the catalyst for the ramp.
According to Simons, while Bullard had been "quite hawkish recently", his comments today "represent a significant turn in his opinion." Jefferies adds that "Bullard is acknowledging that risks to higher inflation are quiet low given the recent developments in commodity markets."
Jefferies concludes (sic) by saying that comments suggest that FOMC’s 2016 voters "might not be quite as hawkish as we thought."
In other words, Bullard may have just hinted at the first Q(ommodity) Easing.
The problem with Polytheism
london red 20:18 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Late JP. I remember predicting that QE would be wound before Ben left as it was his baby. Of course that didnt happen, but logically it should have happened that way and they should have raised earlier. So they would have had more to come down now.
Mtl JP 20:14 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
so players are saying the FED is wrong with its attempt at lift-off ?
GVI Forex john bland 20:14 GMT January 15, 2016
WEEK AHEAD: EONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS
Re sanctions: I heard reported they will be off by Monday. I can't recall the source. One story being passed around is that this was the price for releasing the two Navy crews.
GVI Forex john bland 20:11 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
fwiw- Fed Funds futures see December 2016 Fed Funds up only 28bps from current levels. That is just a hair above one 25bp rate hike.
dc CB 19:37 GMT January 15, 2016
Oil
NYMEX Pit closed with Feb below $29.50
Hillegom Purk 19:24 GMT January 15, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Hillegom Purk 08:13 GMT January 15, 2016
eur/cad ranges: Reply
15643-15829, almost 200. pattern still there. 159 on the radar. still can take longs and shorts at end of ranges...
15643-15970
15829-15605-15583------15833
__________________________
Well we got 15643-15961, 300 pips plus...
Low this week: 15296, high 15961. Not bad 700 pips. Longs where good, but also shorts where given lotsa pips. patience, a 700 correction is near, and than just keep on loging and shorting...
PAR 19:14 GMT January 15, 2016
ECB
Reply
Negative interest rates > Customers remove their cash from the banks > European banks lack retail funding > problems caused by ECB .
Livingston nh 19:11 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
re: art cashin Fed comment -- this is the mindset that needs to be broken - even the dovey mopes at the Fed know this // way outside the Fed job description (started by G'span)
london red 19:04 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
work kept me busy today JP, lots of paperwork to ready. doing a lot of deals recently and thats what im here for. but i actually cut my brexit cable to 10% from 20% on 14281 the lt fib of 27x/11x. stop is still over the 46 handle but likely will fall to a whisker over 145. last tgt will be near 140 but i need to see under 14226 to see it. you know me im v bearish on brexit result for uk and i did warn that mkt not hedged but that was north of 150 and the risk now is for a bounce. they are unlikely to do a deal in feb, so vote will get set back from june to maybe september. if they cant do a deal by may then vote probably early 2017. so all those hedges are going to expire and will need to be done again. there will be some backing out which should result in some short covering.
Mtl JP 19:00 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
dc CB 18:55 but euro not going to 1.0925-ish
at least not yet
dc CB 18:58 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
1849.25 famous last words LOL
Mtl JP 18:54 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Red - in retrospect
how d u miss the gbp dump
london red 18:52 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
yen. said to be some covert offical bids near 11650. id suppose if that goes then they throw in towel but id wait for 11629 before passing judgement. but you have to buy huge dips as it always works.
XLE actually not looking too bad. didnt make new low and has an inverse shs of sorts. when the crap starts to do better thats a good sign esp while oil down 6%.
Mtl JP 18:51 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
it is NOT a 3 day weekend for currencies
maybe mice will party while cats r away
Mtl JP 18:48 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
it did hit 1857 and it did not go on a round of sellin
GVI Forex john bland 18:39 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Note Brent LOD hit below $29.00
dc CB 18:31 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
plus it is a 3 day weekend....too much time to Think
watch the usual suspects for hints: VIX VXX UDS/JPY.
10 and 5 Futures are starting to pull back on profit taking.
It is OPEX.
But if it dosen't work, that sez more than if they manage the same ole same ole stick save. Tues would be fearsome.
Israel Dil 18:28 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
it's not a panic (yet?), it's just a chaos :-)
Israel Dil 18:27 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
ita nor a panic (yet?), it's just a chaos :-)
dc CB 18:24 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
don't know what he said.
Re: rally
The PPT will give it a shot no doubt. 400-500pts Down is a big pill to ask the average Amurican to swallow.
After ignoring SToX in the weekend press last week - in deference to the O's "everything is coming up roses" SOTU....
whot will be the MSM line this weekend....I know: Don't panic...leave yr money where it is ...it will come back...long term "investing"....
london red 18:23 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
i was looking for 1843ish to buy. its entirely poss they frontran. i usually have more patience than mkt inclination to fall. if fails 1885-90 then i still am inclined to buy but if higher then my 43 is slightly compromised. still a buy but less conviction and with a eye to 1790.
Mtl JP 18:19 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
dc CB what d he say
-
expecting a stoks ramp up into the close ?
Israel Dil 18:14 GMT January 15, 2016
Weekend Bedtime Reading - nitemares guarenteed
judging from Trump's record, "belly up >restart > ""glory""" that thing seems fitting perfectly to the current US state. will cause millions of "extreme islamists and reddies" and god already will show to be beside him.
Mtl JP 18:11 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
low energy cost should be a boon to an economy
yet it appears that it is not - duh
GVI Forex john bland 18:08 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
wti $29.33 -1.86 LOD $29.15
Brent $29.07-1.80 LOD $28.86
Mtl JP 18:07 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
stock market decline of 3% = "Babson Break"
DJ off appro 3.22%
Nazdog off appro 4.15%
SnP off appro 3%
Israel Dil 18:07 GMT January 15, 2016
Weekend Bedtime Reading - nitemares guarenteed
what for other than print-print-print options the FED have now? what else they can do? anything else than print-print-print is admitting that the US tax payers were attached to trillions of debt not for a just reason. the total disconnect between policy makers and tax payers is a time bomb that will explode and transform to a new currency, personally I do believe that the one to get the burns from this hot potato is already born and playing with probabilities makes Trump the perfect type to place as head of the regime that will have to make the 'game over / restart' call. just a serious taught.
Paris ib 17:58 GMT January 15, 2016
Major Global Economic Readjustment Coming Soon
Reply
But don't tell the guys at the FED or in Washington. The old way of doing things is over. And the world will be a whole lot better off for it. Enough with this fascism and the obsession with world domination. Embrace change. Change is inevitable so bloody well embrace it. What does it mean for markets? The end of the USD as the only global reserve currency. The end of financing excess consumption and military spending based on slave labour in poor countries (of the East). Good news all round, provided we don't suddenly all go weird and fascist. Higher real interest rates in deficit nations (those countries with chronic current account deficits, you know who you are). Personally I am optimistic and glad for the change.
dc CB 17:57 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
zerohedge @zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago
Dallas Fed’s Kaplan to Appear on Q&A Session in 5 Minutes. The former Goldmanite knows what to say
GVI Forex john bland 17:49 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
EURUSD backs off from a run at 1.10. (1.0985 HOD). I feel 1.10+ is inevitable soon, maybe today? At the moment there seems to be little EURUSD demand up here (light stops?).
There is also the possibility that there are protection schemes in place below that line.
Mtl JP 17:46 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
john script readers an not be deep
but you could read that as nuff is nuff and sold euro 1.0975
GVI Forex john bland 17:43 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Nice to know their sources are a bunch of script readers who are only one question deep!
Mtl JP 17:40 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
apparently Treasury watches world financial markets and evaluates what kind of impact they could have on the broader U.S. economy.
Mtl JP 17:37 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Treasury Department closely watching market movements, White House says - MarketWatch
Why - nothing better to do ?
dc CB 17:24 GMT January 15, 2016
NEXT WEEK
154 locations Walmart will close in the United States, 102 will be Walmart Express stores, a small-format pilot program that the retailer began in 2011. also closing 12 supercenters and four Sam’s Club membership stores.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
IMHO
after destroying the downtown business districts of small towns...leaving monuments abandonded parking lots and empty warehouse retail structures. Built with tax breaks/deferments offered onceUponaTime by revenue stressed Local Politicians.
The former Owners of said small businesses now Fired from their Minimum wage jobs as Walmart greeters.
Many built on former farmland...the acres of blacktop parking.....
ay Walmart to Close 269 Stores
Livingston nh 17:23 GMT January 15, 2016
Weekend Bedtime Reading - nitemares guarenteed
It's pretty clear from the transcripts that the Fed shot itself in the foot with the self imposed out of thin air 2% inflation target - the collective inability to admit failure is one of the primary reasons I doubt the Fed will reverse its present course
PAR 17:07 GMT January 15, 2016
NEXT WEEK
Reply
The Real State of the Union.
dc CB 16:54 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
“G.E. Appliances is performing well, and there was significant interest from potential buyers, helping drive a good deal which will benefit our investors, customers and employees,” Jeff Immelt, G.E.’s chairman and chief executive, said in a news release.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PS: Immelt - Obama's erstwhile "Jobs Czar"
G.E. to Sell Appliance Division to Haier for $5.4 Billion
Mtl JP 16:49 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
huh - no growth opps in China ?
-
China’s diabetes boom promises $23 billion pot for drug makers
How big is the potential market for diabetes drugs in China? As big as the entire populations of Australia, Canada and Argentina — combined. And it’s growing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-diabetes-boom-promises-23-billion-put-for-drug-makers-2016-01-15
-
Pikers market
Paris ib 16:42 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
red... right. The whole media call for China to be a growth engine is just a joke. You can't be a growth engine for the rest of the world unless you are net importer. China is a net exporter, always has been. So a China slow down MEANS NOTHING for the Western world and is potentially a positive if it means lower commodity prices. So the China explanation is a DUD at the outset. Stocks and the economy are in trouble in the WEST for other reasons. And should we see a withdrawal of foreign finance (China and Japan) then we really will have a depression in those countries dependent on that capital.
PAR 16:42 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Margin call time .
Mtl JP 16:39 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
what is missing so far is that next financial bubble crash
powers that be doing their utmost to not allow a cleansing
london red 16:38 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
they want to switch to it, but it wont happen overnight. and certainly not if millions get washed away with nothing to show for it when loans get called. it will set them back years. and the western consumer giants that were looking to the chinese as a growth engine for them are going to be disappointed.
Paris ib 16:35 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
red China never had consumer led growth. They counted on exports. Following 2008 they found out they better try something else. But China is not having trouble because of lower domestic consumption. It all comes back to the collapse in Western economies. And it means we have to have a major readjustment. Because the model of growth we had where slave labour in the East produced cheap goods for the West while Eastern savings were lent to the West to finance that Western spending. That's over. Big time over. Hence major economic adjustment and not before time.
london red 16:28 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
its a collection of problems ib. slowing western economies. chinas switch is/will hurt australia. the fall in oil is hurting SW funds which are having to sell assets.
china getting to sell stuff cheaper to the west (yuan) is a plus for western consumers but the bursting of massive credit bubble in china will mean demand from chinese consumers will fall off a cliff. so they wont be getting their consumer led growth too quickly.
Mtl JP 16:28 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
think euro is going to break far from 1.0950 ?
PAR 16:26 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Dudley should look at waht negative interest artes did for the European stock markets . Rising stockmarkets did not help the real economy ,so falling stockmarkets will not hurt the real economy .
Biggest problem are the sorcerers apprentices at the Central Banks all over the world . From USA , Japan China and Europe.
Paris ib 16:25 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
China is in trouble because as an EXPORT orientated economy the collapse of demand in its export markets means The End of that economic model of development. China is reeling because demand in the West has collapsed. They know that. How come we don't?
Paris ib 16:18 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Personally I think the 'China' explanation for the stock sell off is BOGUS.
Paris ib 16:17 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
red that really doesn't answer my question. Why, if it is happening, does a slow down in China matter to the 'Western' world and what is the transmission mechanism? Why should we care? Why should markets care? Serious question.
dc CB 16:17 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
from the Dudley Q&A
DUDLEY: IF ECONOMY WEAKENED, WOULD CONSIDER NEGATIVE RATES
Back to Back Bounce Meisters canna' do it. capt'n I'm givin' it all she got, anymore and she's gonna' blow.........more Scotty, I need MORE
dc CB 16:12 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
10Y hit 1.98 as cash Tres opened this morning.
Bet those "Indirects" wish they'd taken down more of the 30Y auction yest.
london red 16:12 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
raw materials price down 50-70% in one year doesnt translate to a slow down from 7 to 6%. they didnt switch to consumer/service overnight. that takes decades. but believe it if you wish, just dont put your money on it as you will be wrong.
PAR 16:09 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Consumption is soo out of fashion . Now its all about the experience . Only idiots buy all the time new iPhones .
Paris ib 16:08 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
red why should that be important? What is the transmission mechanism there? Honestly I doubt China is collapsing but if it were I do not see why that should have any impact on anyone except the commodity exporters. The 'headlines' and the 'pundits' are wide of the mark.
dc CB 16:07 GMT January 15, 2016
Oil
Reply
March contract takes over as Feb LT is the 20th. Mar looks to fall below 30 today making a new contract low. The spread between the two is still 90cents+/- .
london red 16:06 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
china going dwn the toilet faster than a flushed log, but us consumer supposed to sup economy. afterall its 70% internally driven. but not by todays data. might be wrong but dont think can go up without a solid flush out first.
london red 16:04 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
daily s&p 1875 straddle 18 points. saying we dont see 1900 or 1850. thats too small.
dc CB 16:03 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
The American "financial press" is still blaming this all on China...because the US Econ is "strong".
PAR 16:02 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Herr Fritz starting to feel really unwell today and feels a lot of nostalgia for the time when solid bankers like Tietmeyer were in charge of the Bundesbank.
Every day he is getting more upset about negative interest rates and the comedia dell arte of the ECB .
Only good investment seems to be a job at ECB and the fat pension that comes with it . ECB bankers do not need to invest and have not to worry about negative interest rates.
European taxpayer take care of that .
dc CB 15:54 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
1841...1831 (Aug low) ....1813 (Oct 2014 low)...1804.(123% Fib Retrac of the 2008High to the 2009 Low)...
dc CB 15:42 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Dudley DoRight-American NIRP. First Reaction
ESH. The reaction low to the first Dudley DoRight FED Mouth Bounce from Aug at 1861, got taken out just before the CAsh open by 3ticks.... 1860.25 . On the Open - over 100K Eminis were traded off that low Jamming the ES 10 points higher in 5 mins.
(as a side note - ZeroHedge is down)
Israel Dil 15:40 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
“The implementation of the Chang’e-4 mission has helped our country make the leap from following to leading in the field of lunar exploration,” Liu said.
In 2013, China landed a rover dubbed Yutu on the moon and the following year an unmanned probe completed its first return mission.
Beijing has plans for a permanent orbiting station by 2020 and aims to eventually send a person to the moon.
boost to Chinese stox
london red 15:36 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
1843 or 1790 for me nh. anymore than that and real problems, no coming back quickly.
dc CB 15:33 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
The reviews are in: Bullard's Bounce II audiences pan the sequel. Nowhere as good as the original...just a retread of a tired formula...read some of the reviews.
Dudley DoRight - American NIRP, opened to mixed reviews this morning.
Israel Dil 15:32 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
very good chance that you are right NH, Walmart closed stores fired people because minimum wage rise, or its actually due to the online purchases?
Mtl JP 15:27 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
apparently Merkel is not going
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12099618/davos-world-economic-forum-conference-what-is-when-is.html
Livingston nh 15:25 GMT January 15, 2016
STOX
Reply
For the first hour stox have maintained the dreaded 10 to 1 neg A/D and more than 20 to 1 neg volume -- today is probably the washout - maybe a bit lower price next week BUT this is probably the Worst overall
Israel Dil 15:24 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
shimon (hardcore currupt) peres came out heart cath yesterday and he said "I want to Davos and no matter what the doctors say. if Peres and hid alike gather, don't expect a Huan friendly outcome.
london red 15:15 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
JP, i have scaled out large part of cable shorts. stop is over 14605 for remaining 20%. its possible we see 140xx 142xx but id expect a move to 151-154 first before below 140 and 135.
Paris ib 15:11 GMT January 15, 2016
USD sell off PART II
nh - Let's see how 2016 ends up. My take (as you know) is that a major structural readjustment has been DELAYED by ill-considered and essentially foolhardy actions of 'the authorities'. In some cases in fact (consider TARP) those actions were possibly close to criminal. At any rate because of this wall of (printed) money the readjustment has been DELAYED. But we are getting there. IMVHO that is. End year 2016 we will see. But I think we are there now.
TARP
Livingston nh 15:11 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
jp - yeah probably - markets are wrong as often as not -- look how many Fed moves were predicted last year
Mtl JP 15:10 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
ib / keep on dreaming that they should stick to reading and writing books
a motherload of them will be concentrated in Davos 20-23 January
Livingston nh 15:08 GMT January 15, 2016
USD sell off PART II
EVERY time the market shakes a bit the guys with the "REPENT, the END is Nigh" placards are marching around
Good News doesn't sell papers (digital or not)
Mtl JP 15:07 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
nh 15:02 r u suggesting 13:44 and 12:40 got it wrong ?
Paris ib 15:04 GMT January 15, 2016
USD sell off PART II
Reply
Since Lehman and the initial USD sell off the 'authorities' (and I use the term loosely) have worked overtime to export the crisis to other areas around the world and to shore up the USD's status as an international reserve currency. They have done a pretty good job it must be said. But you can't fight major turning points forever. This is round two. And this time the aforementioned 'authorities' have spent their bullets and have lost their credibility. In this round we will have real world economic consequences and it will be unpleasant.
A bit of gloom from Dimitri
GVI Forex john bland 15:02 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
finally a better number UM is soft data anyway.
Livingston nh 15:02 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
The Fed is on the right path - it took too long but finally - they won't retreat because they can't - it would be too costly and 1/4 point cut is not going to increase the price of oil, resuscitate China or save Brazil // a recession call is always risky especially in a post industrial service based economy because most of the standards don't reflect different economic reality in most countries -- the problem w/ economics is that different times require different solutions, analogies don't cut it
Market will get over it
Israel Dil 15:01 GMT January 15, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
ib
first is the oh oh oh ;-)
hopefully/reform/revolution mentions in one post, what a cute dreaming girl you are... Japan's birth rate is the reason why rising stock markets are the only way to keep on paying pensions in Japan, economics is just another form of magic, looks realistic, feels realistic but stays forever a magic. only that makes economics a good solution to fulfill the human need in something to believe in. so Japanese will keep on putting their money in foreign stocks (isn't the neighbor's grass is always greener?!).
fear rules nature, society is just a side affect. so, let's turn off the phones in a place warm enough to walk whole day with minimal cloths. maybe joy waits there.
Paris ib 14:53 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Welcome to Zimbabwe. We'll all be bartering soon. Stock up flour sacks people. Dearie me.
Paris ib 14:52 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Well then they should stick to reading and writing books. They have no business running the country. Or trying to. That is bonkers and we all know it. But this inertia has crept in. This idea that 'experts' have the answers is nuts. The results are there for all to see and yet the pundits keep pretending it will all work out. It is all so very Naked Emperor.
Mtl JP 14:51 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
do u think retail folks would actually be paid to take out a loan ?
buahahaha
GVI Forex john bland 14:47 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
no they do not. They are academics.
Paris ib 14:45 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
John.... does this Dudley person really think that is an adequate or appropriate response at this point? I mean seriously. Do they not understand FAILED POLICY?
Paris ib 14:44 GMT January 15, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
Hopefully some kind of serious reform will come of all this. We have two options: seriously clean up and reform our governing institutions or we get some kind of nasty revolution with possible fascist responses. I'm not keen on the second option.
GVI Forex john bland 14:44 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Dudley
-- negative rates could be on the table if needed
-- does not expect them to be needed
Paris ib 14:41 GMT January 15, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
I think there are a lot of factors at play. Bit of everything and all of it is not so great for stocks. Or the economy for that matter. And let's face not only is the FED out of bullets it's going the other way. Policy options at this point? None. What were they thinking. I really don't think many people thought any of this was a good idea. Not QE, not zero interest rates, not just handing over trillions to the banks... and it was done anyhow. And here we are. Not a surprise really, is it?
Paris ib 14:31 GMT January 15, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
"Paris ib 10:50:00 GMT - 01/15/2016
The USD/JPY fall is a bit slow motion but a break below 117.00 is likely to spook stock markets even more."
That didn't take long. :-))
We haven't even finished January and stocks are down 10 percent and more for the year in some cases. More to come.
GVI Forex john bland 14:24 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Ive been posting we are in a manufacturing recession for well over a month. The rest of the economy will follow.
Mtl JP 14:19 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
r u calling it R ecession yet ?
GVI Forex john bland 14:17 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Another data miss. Bad figures are accumulating.
GVI Forex john bland 14:16 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization December 2015
U.S. Data Charts
ALERT
Ind Production: -0.40% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. -0.60% (r -0.90%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 76.5% vs. 76.80% exp. vs. 77.00% (r 76.9%) prev.
target="blank">RELEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Livingston nh 14:16 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
This week in SPX has been "exciting" -- intraday moves turned quickly -- internals up until yesterday were negative while prices advanced and chart was positive (even yesterday over 70% of the 1000 declining stox were new Lows) -- even w/ expiration so near you had to pay up in options
The folks who have been saying "sell everything" will likely be top of the news today -- BUT still the same old China, oil, EM debt so nothing new to "price in" - for currencies, money goes home in bad times but usually a short visit
Livingston nh 14:16 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
This week in SPX has been "exciting" -- intraday moves turned quickly -- internals up until yesterday were negative while prices advanced and chart was positive (even yesterday over 70% of the 1000 declining stox were new Lows) -- even w/ expiration so near you had to pay up in options
The folks who have been saying "sell everything" will likely be top of the news today -- BUT still the same old China, oil, EM debt so nothing new to "price in" - for currencies, money goes home in bad times but usually a short visit
GVI Forex john bland 13:57 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Watch out for stocks today could see a melt-down. Bond market liquidity another concern.
Mtl JP 13:55 GMT January 15, 2016
Fed
10-yr sub 2%
london red 13:45 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
yes us numbers gone from $hit to worse. 1.5 yards 1.10 today should keep it in check. nxt wk quite light topside so if stocks fall may try 11050/80 after ny cut.
yen 116.29 sup. if they panic then 115.52. but it that goes will be ugly intraday though they may buy dip as per usual to finish a fig off lows no less. still lets not get too far ahead of play.
GVI Forex Blog 13:44 GMT January 15, 2016
Fed
Reply
FED Futures now imply July for 1st rate hike
Fed
Livingston nh 13:42 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
FI sectors away from Treasurys not faring as well - flight to safety and a hoped for reprieve from the Fed
Dudley - see if he echoes Bullard's concern about " inflation expectations" (the new NEXT BIG Thing)
HK Kwun 13:42 GMT January 15, 2016
add more
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1093 Target: Stop: 1103
2nd sell
Mtl JP 13:41 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
can u see a day when both stox and bonds collapse ?
GVI Forex john bland 13:35 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Lousy numbers across the board. Good for bond prices! (falling yields)...
GVI Forex john bland 13:33 GMT January 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Advance Retail Sales December 2015
U.S. Data Charts
ALERT
-0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.40%)
x-autos +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% (r +0.30%)
x-autos & gas 0.0% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.60% (+0.50%)
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 13:01 GMT January 15, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
john bland 12:37 where will they store it
A / In the hole left by the SELLING oil from the SPR
-
DLRIndex at 98.9 - one could say about steady
USDyen 117.30 - off some but sofar not tragic
Belgrade TD 12:56 GMT January 15, 2016
Daily TA trade
Long NAS100 here ... stop below S1 ... without stop during data ... till US close or nice UP spike ...
Israel Dil 12:54 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Buy Crude
Entry: $29.40 Target: Stop: $28.95
watch it.....
Hillegom Purk 12:43 GMT January 15, 2016
Ozmond longs
Reply
Was very patient, and the 66 of Percy is nearing, but this level is fine too. risk is 58..
Long 6868.
GVI Forex john bland 12:40 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
March Fed rate hike odds now down to 28%. 25bps total tightening now priced through all of 2016.
Hillegom Purk 12:39 GMT January 15, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Reply
Right, slighly exchanging the longs for shorties. 158-160 overshoot how much ?????
Being Friday the money is going to keep the e/cad high well supported...
Israel Dil 12:38 GMT January 15, 2016
Collapse in Shipping
Purk
The truth is simply what we believe in, at this point CAD is only sell at other point it will be preached as buy... so be patient ;-)
GVI Forex john bland 12:37 GMT January 15, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
nh- If CBs start buying oil, where will they store it?
Interestingly, I heard yesterday that China has been stockpiling oil at these prices like crazy. Of course the U.S. Congress has been SELLING oil from the SPR!
Hillegom Purk 12:33 GMT January 15, 2016
Collapse in Shipping
Well have a nice weekend Dil, the sandman knows everything, he is working on his ego gaining 10/20% per month.
Israel Dil 12:26 GMT January 15, 2016
Collapse in Shipping
Buy Crude
Entry: Target: $60++ @ 2016 Stop:
the shipping market lost proportions, as many other markets. as the while system if facts matter.
the banksters get fines that represents 1/100+++ ratio regarding the funds were injected into the financial sector since 2008. 7 years later and no one had to the pay the price as tax payers (AKA printed momey) is no man's zone.
computers are exactly as humans (their inventors) but much much faster, all repeats itself until it gets too tired to repeat itself, just to discover (again) that one knows behalf FUCKYHOURY and the older people on the GVI side;-)
nonsense, just remember markets going up and down is a lie for masses, markets go round and round.... think about it, or not .... lol
Livingston nh 12:22 GMT January 15, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
John - maybe the next round of QE could be coordinated buying of crude oil by world CBs // rate hikes have nothing to do w/ the declining price of an overvalued commodity in the developed economies where inflation is embedded in services and taxes
Sydney ACC 12:02 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
According to International Energy Agency Iran currently produces 3.6 million barrels per day. Within six months they claim Iran should be able to add a further 800,000 barrels per day.
Another unknown is the amount of oil Iran has in storage, both inland and in supertankers in the Persian Gulf. Estimates range from about 12 million barrels to 60 million barrels.
In 2011, after civil war broke out in Libya and the country’s oil production fell to zero, the market widely expected it to take 18 months to raise output by 1 million barrels a day. Production surpassed that level in less than six months.
Livingston nh 12:02 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
MXN has hit a milestone as it moved above 18 - I remember Rubin saying above 6 would be a disaster -- peso is very important in some em trade and finance // RUB, CAD and NOK are also breaking out again
under $30 oil is in undervalued territory -- still await panic/ capitulation trade
Livingston nh 11:50 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
Iran has tankers ready to go - even a nominal amount moving into current over supplied market (of straws and camels) can have a magnified effect, especially w/ market tendency to extrapolate
GVI Forex john bland 11:45 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
I heard the Iran sanctions will be lifted on Monday. I have not heard how soon Iran will be able to produce and export significant amounts of crude. I've heard their infrastructure is in very bad shape.
London OT 11:40 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
One reason being given for the fall in oil prics is Iran flooding the market as lifting of sanction is coming soon.
UK JY 11:35 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Is anyone trading today? Not many trade calls.
One reason for the global concerns is that governments and central banks are clueless and lost control. Printing money is not the solution.
GVI Forex john bland 11:33 GMT January 15, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
I normally don't pay a lot of attention to the PPI index (due at 13:30 GMT), but with the primary focus of the Fed on inflation, this figure (-0.10%) is worth watching. How can they be targeting inflation and raise rates when Producer Prices are falling? It makes no sense.
When do Janet and Stanley capitulate?
GVI Forex john bland 11:23 GMT January 15, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Jan Friday
13:30 US- Retail Sales
15:00 US- prelim University of Michigan Survey
18-Jan Monday
00:00 US- Holiday
19-Jan Tuesday
02:00 CN- GDP
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
21:45 NZ- CPI
20-Jan Wednesday
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
15:00 US- BOC Decision
21-Jan Thursday
10:00 EZ- final HICP
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
22-Jan Friday
All Day flash PMIs
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- CPI
Belgrade TD 10:55 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex john bland 10:20 GMT 01/15/2016 - My Profile
AUDUSD sharply lower after massive $7.2 bln BHP Billiton write-off of shale oil assets.
###
some level of consideration ... not nice outlook ...
Paris ib 10:50 GMT January 15, 2016
USD/JPY: the canary in the coal mine
The USD/JPY fall is a bit slow motion but a break below 117.00 is likely to spook stock markets even more. The entire financial market narrative is falling apart. USD is in trouble. The U.S. economy is in real trouble and the FED is hiking? If it continues to do so that will be a sign of real big trouble out there somewhere. With the possibility you have rising inflation (possibly big time) and rising interest rates across the curve (at some point) and an economy that falls through that papered over floor. Not good news except maybe for Russia and China, I guess. Australia, which has bought into the neo-liberal mind set (deregulate, privatise, work for nothing, open up to the international economy and go into massive amounts of debt - from offshore) will be in for a struggle as it tries to find another economic model to live which (which is no longer 'colonial'). AUD looking ugly, especially on the crosses.
GVI Forex john bland 10:28 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
DAX-92
futures
DJ-253
SP -31
10-yr
US 2.057% -3.7bp
GB 1.684% -2.4bp
DE 0.479% -3.9bp
EUR mostly higher on its crosses, except EURJPY lower. JPY in demand on carry trade unwinding of equities.
HK [email protected] 10:23 GMT January 15, 2016
My thoughts are with oil.
Reply
Prices of crude, possibly heralds a faster than expected breakthrough in Fusion energy generation.
GVI Forex john bland 10:20 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
AUDUSD sharply lower after massive $7.2 bln BHP Billiton write-off of shale oil assets.
GVI Forex Jay Meislerqq 09:54 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
I posted this at yesterday's close on GVI Forex - high so far today 1.0917
Friday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:01 GMT 01/14/2016 - My Profile
EURUSD: Hostage to equities. Plenty of US data to give fade opportunities.
Ranges:
1.0835/1.0800*/1.0710 - 1.0869/1.0880/1.0917/1.0943*/1.0970*
nw kw 09:50 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
usa retail can be strong from us flood restocking necessity's, did this before in cad.
GVI Forex john bland 09:34 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Posted on GVI yesterday
Thursday Trading Outlook
GVI Forex john bland 20:27 GMT 01/14/2016
I just heard someone say that equity markets tend to go into a risk-off posture ahead of a long weekend. Keep an eye out for this possibility tomorrow...
===========
Check out oil and stocks today
PAR 09:34 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
EURUSD 1.2000 > Crude $ 40
EURUSD 1.1000 > Crude $ 30
EURUSD 1.0000 > Crude $ 20
EURUSD 0.9000 > Crude $ 10
What did you expect Mr . Draghi ?
NY JM 09:26 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Crude below$30 is all you need to know today. Typical risk off reaction in commodities and gbp v EUR and JPY.
PAR 09:21 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
Negative interest rates . WHAT DID YOU EXPECT !
Draghi . The sorcerer apprentice at the ECB .
jkt abel 09:13 GMT January 15, 2016
Swiss Peg
maybe BOJ this time!
GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT January 15, 2016
Swiss Peg
Reply
This time a year ago, the SNB caused carnage in the currency markets. How time flies!
Swiss Peg
nw kw 08:45 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
is bund toped out not 10y usa.
nw kw 08:37 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
brent up wti is that eur mover
Hillegom Purk 08:30 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
eur/usd is in a narrow range, soon will be over not today, i think....
Hillegom Purk 08:13 GMT January 15, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Reply
15643-15829, almost 200. pattern still there. 159 on the radar. still can take longs and shorts at end of ranges...
15643-15970
15829-15605-15583------15833
Saar KaL 08:05 GMT January 15, 2016
accumulating
Reply
Long SP500 TGT Next month
Long NDX TGT same
Short USDCAD...TGT 1.38 to parity and EURCad...tgt 1.40
going long term folks
PAR 08:05 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
After working 50 year in the factory Herr Fritz used to earn a litlle interest on his lifelong savings . Comes along Draghi and he has to pay to keep his savings at the bank . Comes along a smart banker and he puts his savings in a bank created product linked to the Dax . Now Herr Fritzes fysical and financial condition is deteriorating rather quickly.
Herr Fritz is not amuzed with what is happening at the ECB in Frankfurt . Revolution is not far away.
PAR 07:48 GMT January 15, 2016
MERKEL - DRAGHI
Reply
Merkel Urged to Deliver Message to Draghi: End Record-Low Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/merkel-urged-to-deliver-message-to-draghi-end-record-low-rates
Amman wfakhoury 07:17 GMT January 15, 2016
US oil return level 30.70
My last Gold signal was the return to 1084..already done
no new signal issued yet
Amman wfakhoury 07:09 GMT January 15, 2016
US oil return level 30.70
Reply
US oil now 30.25 ..return 30.70
Buy add buy if decline.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
nw kw 06:18 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
american frakers are not owned by big oil ind. so big oil will by up 2/3 of American frakers this year and that will give price control back to big oil from cutting frakers production.
this game is in big copper as well so they can do the same plan as oil and for gold so interesting year controlled by big industry chooses to crush the small guy or not?
HK Kwun 04:45 GMT January 15, 2016
Sell again
Reply
Sell Gold
Entry: 1081 Target: Stop: 1091
Sell Sell Sell
HK Kwun 02:32 GMT January 15, 2016
Still prefer sell
Sell Gold
Entry: 1086 Target: Stop: 1096
was closed at 1076 this morning
Hong Kong 02:25 GMT January 15, 2016
AceTrader Jan 15: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply
15 Jan 2016 01:55GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr ended Thursday's session above 118.00 level after swinging wildly in Europe & New York as rebound in U.S. stocks boosted risk sentiment and led to broad-based yen-selling, price rallied from New York morning low of 117.43 to as high as 118.28.
Despite initial sideways move ahead of Asian open and a higher open in the Nikkie, intra-day rise in USD/CNH (offshore) after the morning PBOC yuan's mid-point fixing triggered a sudden wave of yen buying and pressured the pair to 117.85.
Looks like dlr may orbit the 118.00 level in directionless Asian morning as offers are tipped at 118.20-40 area with stops above there, some bids are noted at 117.85-75 and more below with fairly good buying interest at 117.30-20.
Traders are expected to take cue from intra-day Asian and later European stocks' movement, however, pay attention to a slew of important U.S. economic data due out later today, in particular, Dececember retail sales, street forecast is looking for a 'flat' growth vs previous reading of 0.2%, a weaker-than-expected number would pressure U.S. stocks and the usd vs yen and euro.
Mtl JP 02:22 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
because if it is the saudis they would be an easier thing to deal with than China economy going to hell
Mtl JP 02:19 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
and what is influencing crude pray tell
is it saudis bent on killing american frakers or China economy collapsing or ______
TIA
NY JM 01:33 GMT January 15, 2016
Friday's Trading Outlook
Reply
FX market is still hostage to equities which are influenced by crude. This is the hand currently being dealt
Asia, stocks down dollar mixed (USDJPY down, EURUSD up) on risk off start.
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