Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2016

Livingston nh 16:43 GMT January 16, 2016
"YOU ARE HERE"
Reply   
Those helpful map/diagrams in Museums, hotels or street corners that assist you in finding a path to your destination always have an AVATAR or Arrow showing "present location" - the Fed doesn't have one of these, the markets don't either and we mere mortals are reduced to guessing the respective destination/targets/goals of both Fed and market as they stumble along paths that cross and diverge - the street signs of government statistics, economic theory and market messages are flawed and subject to interpretation by the reader BUT that's all we've got

So where are we now and where are we headed - late in the business cycle the Fed is raising interest rates and other countries are not so the USD is stronger, EM countries are caught with slower growth and rising inflation (STAGFLATION) so their monetary policy is "conflicted" so the USD is stronger

What has changed in the past few months or days? What might change? The Fed, BoE, ECB, BoJ, PBOC or fiscal policies - except for the Fed nothing's changed /// Markets are in turmoil and chaos reigns as one day China, one day oil, one day some government statistic excites the peanut gallery

I propose that the US is at least 3 quarters away from recession, the Fed will continue to hike and inflation will become a concern -- the USD will rise as other countries adjust policy in a confusing, inconsistent pattern

GVI Forex Blog 12:56 GMT January 16, 2016
My Forex Trading Forecast for the Week Ahead
Reply   

Global markets continue to have a reality check with growth concerns spreading to the U.S. and calling into question the Fed's forecast for four rate hikes this year. It seems only a matter of time before the Fed has its reality check and falls closer into line with current market expectations. In the meanwhile, the focus remains on crude oil and equities to set the risk tone and this has created a tug-of-war for the dollar. In this week's forecast I put the current price action in perspective and show what it would take to squeeze EURUSD shorts. Watch China data on Tuesday and the reaction to it.

My Forex Trading Forecast for the Week Ahead

HK RF@ 12:41 GMT January 16, 2016
Russia; Saudi;Venezuela(did already); Iran; China;Canada; Gulf states;Isis...
Reply   


All in the list above, may have to sell their gold hoard to compensate for drop in income from oil, and/or or slowing economies.

Gold eventually will crash to around 380$/Oz.

Laugh it now, and cry it after.

HK RF@ 12:15 GMT January 16, 2016
LONG TERM USD/CAD TARGET 1.6400 at least.


Mtl JP 22:01 GMT

By "down" I meant not in nominal value, but in absolute value.

GVI Forex Blog 12:10 GMT January 16, 2016
A Tale of Two Economies: Washington Vs Wall Street
Reply   

John M. Bland MBA, CTA

Washington Vs. Wall Street
Last week saw the State of the Union Speech before the U.S. Congress by the President. In this speech, Mr Obama touted the current strength the U.S. economy. The Fed also has been spouting a similar narrative as a justification for its 2016 four interest rate hike scenario . Wall Street has been looking deeper into recent economic data and consistently is simply not buying it. Investors that feel the U.S. employment statistics are seriously flawed and that the Fed got itself stuck playing a catch-up game after not starting its "normalization" process over a year ago when the economy was stronger. Investors are voting with money while Washington is voting with words. The simplest benchmark is the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note which reached roughly 2.30% at the end of the year and fell to below 2.00% at one point on Friday just two weeks later as equity prices fell. This is not the expected performance for a bond market setting up for a strengthening economy. My bet is with the markets.

A Tale of Two Economies: Washington Vs Wall Street

New Your R 11:48 GMT January 16, 2016
Fundamentals could resurface after wrenching sell-off
Reply   
The dramatic sell-off on Wall Street through most of the past two weeks could signal a capitulation-type blowout, giving fundamentals the upper hand for the next week.

Fundamentals could resurface after wrenching sell-off

Mtl JP 10:28 GMT January 16, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

(Reuters) - International sanctions on Iran will be lifted on Saturday when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issues its final report on Tehran's disputed nuclear program, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said.
-
Iran should add 700 000 bbls of oil to the market offer

Mtl JP 08:53 GMT January 16, 2016
populism - worst nightmare for the European project
Reply   
The worst nightmare for the European project is an outbreak of populism or political upheaval in Germany. Now it is looking like a real possibility
- Martin Schulz, the German president of the European Parliament

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/634693/EU-threat-terrorism-Islamic-State-migrant-crisis-Germany-Angela-Merkel

dc CB 03:36 GMT January 16, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close

in the nation�s capital, the two stores were more than statistics. For D.C. leaders, they amounted to Walmart�s breaking a promise that had allowed it to win a public relations coup at a critical point for the company.

After saturating the nation�s rural landscape with big-box stores at the turn of the decade, Walmart had been blocked by liberal politicians and unions in New York and Boston from its next frontier, remaking retail in the nation�s urban core. But in the District, Walmart won the right to open stores surrounding the U.S. Capitol � and a symbolic victory for its belief that low-price goods help its poor customers more than low-wage jobs hurt its workers.

Under the initial deal, Walmart could build stores almost anywhere in the District, as long as it opened two stores in its poorest wards and areas of the city sometimes referred to as food deserts, with few � if any � options for fresh produce and groceries

District leaders furious Walmart won�t build stores in poor neighborhoods

dc CB 03:26 GMT January 16, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off at N.Y. Close

July 23, 2015

Back in 2009, it looked liked Alexandria, VA, residents would get a new high-speed Internet option in the form of Verizon FiOS. The city even went through the bureaucratic process of issuing Verizon a franchise. Then the D.C.-area community got dumped at the altar by Big V and has been looking for someone, anyone to step in ever since.

Verizon was all set to provide broadband fiber service to Alexandria (the city and company had not yet finished negotiating a pay-TV franchise deal) when, in Feb. 2010, the president of Verizon�s Virginia operations dropped the bomb that the company didn�t need Alexandria anymore.

City Asks For Fiber Network Help, 5 Years After Being Left At Altar By Verizon FiOS