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Forex Forum Archive for 01/17/2016

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GVI Forex john bland 23:48 GMT January 17, 2016
eurusd

cb- thanks I forgot about the changeover

dc CB 23:45 GMT January 17, 2016
eurusd

that is February Last Trade on the 20th
All the trading is now in March contract

dc CB 23:43 GMT January 17, 2016
eurusd

WTI
confusion due to Feb - March contract. or now Spot V what is tradeable .....Fed Last Trade on the 20th. March is/has been @90cents over Feb.

GVI Forex john bland 23:42 GMT January 17, 2016
eurusd

viies I am getting two prices $29.-- and $28.--

I think your $28-- is correct

Tallinn viies 23:37 GMT January 17, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
wti 28,65 at the moment

GVI Forex john bland 23:33 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

wti $29.55 -1.13
brent $27.82 -1.42

Israel Dil 23:32 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

Buy Crude
Entry: 28.40 & adding Target: $38/$40.50/$66.66 Stop: will tell you Friday

oil's price action suggests years low to take place the coming 36-48 hours .... good luck all

dc CB 23:32 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

john, here's a full shaker of salt.
PS: wasn't Mike Mayo "banned" after asking questions that probed a bit too deep....back in 07-08?
___________________________________________________----

Then, from the Q&A, how much is Wells' total loan exposure, its fixed income and equity exposure toward energy:

* I would use $17 billion as outstandings for energy loans. And for securities, I would use, call it, $2.5 billion which is the sum of AFS securities and non-marketable securities.

: What percent of the $17 billion is not investment grade?

: I would say most of it. Most of it.

: So most of the $17 billion is non-investment grade.

: Correct.

Wells Fargo's Problem Emerges: $17 Billion In Junk Energy Exposure

GVI Forex john bland 22:43 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

plenty to worry about on Monday with oil and equities still vulnerable. U.S. closure will impact liquidity adversely.

GVI Forex Blog 22:41 GMT January 17, 2016
Global-View Trading Technologies
Reply   

USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables.

Global-View Trading Technologies

GVI Forex Blog 21:33 GMT January 17, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 18 January 2016
Reply   
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:

18-Jan Monday
00:00 US- Holiday
19-Jan Tuesday
02:00 CN- GDP
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
21:45 NZ- CPI
20-Jan Wednesday
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
15:00 US- BOC Decision
21-Jan Thursday
10:00 EZ- final HICP
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
16:00 US- Weekly Crude
22-Jan Friday
All Day flash PMIs
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
13:30 CA- CPI

GVI Data Calendar for 18 January 2016

dc CB 21:07 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers

Intv w/Lee Adler in the 2nd half of each Max Keiser pgm.

Lee Adler Pt1 and Pt2

dc CB 20:14 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread

NIRP?
whot about NCLP

Tweeeeeeet

GVI Forex john bland 20:03 GMT January 17, 2016
Monday's Trading Thread
Reply   
Early indications (partial quotes)--

dc CB 20:00 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers



US MainStreamMeda.
Headlines we didn't see.

DOW DOWN 1500. WORST START TO THE YEAR IN MARKET EVER

Conspicuous in its absence.

SToX: PROP-O-GANDA. The Edward Bernays School. Expect more.

GVI Forex Blog 19:45 GMT January 17, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: U.S. Rates Not Pointing To A Further Fed Tightening
Reply   

Through the end of last week, the yield on the 2-yr note (green line) has been fallling. Not consisted with four rate hikes this year?

CURRENT CONDITIONS: U.S. Rates Not Pointing To A Further Fed Tightening

Amsterdam 19:06 GMT January 17, 2016
Forex Fnalytics anfd Forecasts from R.Butko, NordFX
Reply   
Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016

For starters, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary;
- in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall;
- the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one;
- on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of 1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month;
- the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target;
- according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this;
- last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point.

Roman Butko,

dc CB 18:19 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers

Another weekend and both the NYTimes and the Wash(BEZOS)Post again restrain coverage of the SToX MarkIT sell off.

The WaPo columnist Stever Peralstein SEZ is the last paragph:

"When we look back to this time, we are likely see that the long bull market ended in February 2015 and we are now a year into a bear market, where selling will beget more selling and stock prices will fall 20 percent from their peak. Such a bear market would mean the Dow would fall at least to 14,000, which would be a good time to begin buying again. It’s likely to be a bumpy ride until then."
____________________________________________________

Dear Steve,
Thanks for telling me this, like 6 months too late. LOL

The bear market may have already begun

Livingston nh 17:56 GMT January 17, 2016
populism - worst nightmare for the European project


As Schengen dies the thin veneer of multicultural Europe goes with it -- and “Without the freedom of European citizens to travel, the euro makes no sense,” Juncker said.

As the Elites (with the great Concerns, e.g. Climate) and the Great Unwashed (with Real Time problems, terrorism and borders) drift further apart Populism, Nationalism and Hostility will rise as it always does -- DAVOS should be a real HOOT this year as the Great and the Good talk to their Mirrors

Hillegom Purk 16:50 GMT January 17, 2016
Russia; Saudi;Venezuela(did already); Iran; China;Canada; Gulf states;Isis...

Dictionary english

Mtl JP 15:36 GMT January 17, 2016
LONG TERM USD/CAD TARGET 1.6400 at least.

RF value refers to utility
price is that at which a sale happens

Livingston nh 15:29 GMT January 17, 2016
BREAKING NEWS

jp - "All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years."

cb noted the beginning of backwardation - so this could be the start tonight for the oil panic

GVI Forex john bland 15:06 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers

I take anything in ZeroHedge with more than a pinch of salt, but if accurate this story is very alarming.

GVI Forex Blog 14:55 GMT January 17, 2016
PREVIEW: European Central Bank Decision Thursday @ 12:45 GMT
Reply   

European Central Bank Decision on Thursday. No rate changes expected. but note slight downward bias of the 2-yr note.

PREVIEW: European Central Bank Decision Thursday @ 12:45 GMT

GVI Forex Blog 14:30 GMT January 17, 2016
PREVIEW: Bank of Canada Wednesday @15:00 GMT
Reply   

Upcoming Bank of Canada policy decision on Wednesday. I expect a 25bp rate cut at this meeting. The key 2-yr note (green line) suggests the smart money feels the same.

PREVIEW: Bank of Canada Wednesday @15:00 GMT

dc CB 00:16 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers

This is what took place: the Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses which would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.

In other words, the Fed has advised banks to cover up major energy-related losses.

Why the reason for such unprecedented measures by the Dallas Fed? Our source notes that having run the numbers, it looks like at least 18% of some banks commercial loan book are impaired, and that’s based on just applying the 3Q marks for public debt to their syndicate sums.

In other words, the ridiculously low increase in loss provisions by the likes of Wells and JPM suggest two things: i) the real losses are vastly higher, and ii) it is the Fed's involvement that is pressuring banks to not disclose the true state of their energy "books."

Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears

dc CB 00:05 GMT January 17, 2016
Fun with Covers
Reply   
Sat's NYTimes

NYT

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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