Mtl JP 23:51 GMT January 26, 2016
Will The FOMC Disappoint On Wednesday?
(Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, casting doubt on the nation's economic health, said on Tuesday the U.S. economy is in a bubble he fears will burst and he does not want to deal with a financial collapse if he is elected to the White House.
Livingston nh 23:50 GMT January 26, 2016
Will The FOMC Disappoint On Wednesday?
China, oil and the Fed have been the daily media villains in this STOX correction
Last Night's action in China saw the stox drop near 6.5% but Europe and US stox shrugged it off - one down
Tomorrow morning any move in oil should be shrugged off by stox - other than direct hits to energy companies and some banks the oil price is only relevant to stox because of Fed policy -- the US monetary policy has been tied to the anchor of falling oil price - so two down
The Fed is the last goblin hiding under the bed -- if the FOMC statement is less than "we will hike in March" it will be "dovish" (data dependent but focus on 2% inflation) -- no change BUT three down
So USD weakness on dovish Fed, falling oil but STOX higher because there will be no more excuses -- ahh, but the bond market might move closer to the exits
Israel Dil 23:34 GMT January 26, 2016
Will The FOMC Disappoint On Wednesday?
does it matter what the FED say?
in name of cheap goods (aka low inflation) for the western way of life, outsourcing and globalisation (aka low cost labor = slavery) were the running agenda and policy. now talking about higher rates as key for a better economy.
to get a fortune it takes a maximal exposure to the masses, to keep and gain the fortune it needs less as possible exposure to the masses. the FED is an implementation tool for those decided which books would be the study, the fun is that USD is just a pawn on the board, exactly as the FED.
when 200/250 DMA will get 1.0999 ?
Mtl JP 22:24 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
and reaction zzzz ????
houston st 22:14 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
biggest since May 1996...gl/gt.
GVI Forex john bland 21:57 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
That is a major build in crude
GVI Forex john bland 21:57 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reportedly big build in API Crude +11.4mln vs. +3.3mln expected
GVI Forex john bland 21:40 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Reportedly big build in API Crude +11.4mln vs. +3.3mln expected
Mtl JP 21:37 GMT January 26, 2016
Will The FOMC Disappoint On Wednesday?
What will the Fed say this week?
Ron Insana - @rinsana
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/what-will-the-fed-say-this-week-commentary.html
Mtl JP 21:35 GMT January 26, 2016
Will The FOMC Disappoint On Wednesday?
"We watch what the market thinks, but we can't be led by what the market thinks," Fischer told CNBC's "Squawk Box." He added that market expectations of the number of future rate hikes are "too low."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/feds-fischer-uncertainty-has-risen-in-markets-unsure-of-n-korea-news-impact.html
nw kw 21:18 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Gold holding up for usa, xauaud at mid rang for this day gives aud room for 2 way move,
best guess usa oil gold down for fed sells gold than up a bit in past, but cad and gbp against the rest, or gust slap stick granny and some twist,
GVI Forex john bland 20:25 GMT January 26, 2016
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
27-Jan Wednesday
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:30 US- Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
20:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
23:30 AU- CPI q/q
28-Jan Thursday
13:30 US- Jobless Claims
13:30 US- Durable Goods Orders
23:30 JP- CPI
29-Jan Friday
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan
10:00 EZ- flash HICP
13:30 US- GDP
15:00 US- University of Michigan Survey
Mtl JP 19:24 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
nh Gold holding up is intriguing
re aud / ya the higher closer to your Res the better r/r
Livingston nh 19:17 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
JP- chaos for two weeks - if nobody takes the Fed seriously then 1/4 point wasn't the issue -- Don't Fight the Fed is wrong this time?
This happens nearly every time the Fed changes course - we are still at historic lows but market enablers haven't seen this in over 10 years so ... they think it's different this time
____
You still looking at the aussie short?
Mtl JP 19:05 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
cad ying yang
Mtl JP 18:50 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
gbpusd at 1.435x = 2x top
needs to hold else door to a rocket opens
Livingston nh 18:18 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Nobody afraid of the Fed - no concession ahead of the auction - seems everybody wants new paper // so why such market chaos?
GVI Forex john bland 18:14 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Reports of an explosion at a shopping mall in central Stockholm. No injuries reported.
-- TTN
GVI Forex john bland 18:11 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Use the 2-yr as a fed funds forecast for the next two years. 0.86% is nowhere close to the Fed's forecast of four rate hikes this year. The current FOMC has a serious credibility problem...
Livingston nh 17:20 GMT January 26, 2016
STOX
Reply
Now that Europe stox held in the black - SPX has gaps 20 points above and 30 points below - 2 yr treasury auction may disappoint // for EUR, oil and stox Russian sanctions look to be dying and FED can juice stox w/ a kind word
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:09 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
1.4050 (tested) and 1.4012 are supports ahead of 1.40 and void below.
Livingston nh 16:43 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
First major break of 21 dma (rising) since move above in mid OCT - 1.3865 is 55ema
Hillegom Purk 16:31 GMT January 26, 2016
oily boily range
Reply
Oil now ticking against the highs, not sure if it can stay there of course. Yesterdays range 3 buck now 2,5. Lets see.
Yesterdays high was 33,06...
HK RF@ 16:10 GMT January 26, 2016
EUR, GOLD
Reply
EUR, is likely suppressed by CB's, as a bull run in a funding currency, will not make any good for the S.Mkts.
Gold is manipulated upward, in order to attract some of the money exiting the S.Mkts, but any smart money if left, is going into quality real estates, just not to come back for many years.
Signs are clear, that markets are now pushing up against runaway exiting money to prevent more of it.
HK Kwun 16:09 GMT January 26, 2016
1113 is support now
Buy Gold
Entry: 1113.5 Target: Stop: 1103.5
already told 1113 is support, buy on dip
Hillegom Purk 15:51 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
Well sort of Chris. the usd/cad positions are from a while back, and the eur/cad was a f.u. which i am going to repair , i think... :)
London Chris 15:49 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
Purk that makes you long eurusd and flat in cad
Hillegom Purk 15:45 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
Short usd/cad and long eur/cad.
Toronto KH 15:44 GMT January 26, 2016
CAD
Reply
Is anyone on the right side of the cad trade? A currency rarely moves like this when market gets it right?
Livingston nh 15:29 GMT January 26, 2016
Market makers in Europe and US, try to stave off the China Mkt collapse.
John - that mentality is certainly present BUT by March we should know more about service based inflation and election // I'll stick w/ my Fed "stay the course" expectation because it isn't the Fed 1/4 point -- it's the lack of competence in the market // the Fed and other CBs are not the Ministers of Economy
Livingston nh 15:08 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
JP - hrly, 4hr and daily show some bounce in AUD/USD (commod bounce -oil and copper) maybe look to sell at your proposed stop into a declining 21 dma (.7045) -- watch oil wkns for your move?
Mtl JP 15:00 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 69999 Target: 50 pips south Stop: .702x
y/nay appreciated
tia
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT January 26, 2016
EURCHF
Reply
EURCHF: 1.1027
Highest level I show since the SNB inspired flash crash was 1.1048.
Not sure if anyone trades this pair anymore as I have crossed it off my list.
GVI Forex john bland 14:45 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Small miss on the Markit Services PMI.
NY JM 14:43 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
JP, I read something to the effect that currencies with a current account surplus are in favor during risk off.
Mtl JP 14:40 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
what is interesting is that euro is still being viewed negatively co-related to a stocks sell-off - a hedge to a potential stox crash ?
Livingston nh 14:25 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Watch the bonds -- the usual suspects are out and about crying for the Fed to EASE PLEASE
WSJ, Gundlach, Dalio -- the enablers want the Fed to go back on drugs
Dubai Tony 14:05 GMT January 26, 2016
AUD/JPY
Thanks JP
Mtl JP 14:05 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
john bland 13:01 / Eurozone 2-year bond yield
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GJGB2:IND
going the way of the toilet
Mtl JP 13:58 GMT January 26, 2016
AUD/JPY
use 82.85 for short/term bias:
favor long while above and vice versa
http://www.global-view.com/gvi3/cpbaud.htm
for Res and Sup values for targets
Hillegom Purk 13:57 GMT January 26, 2016
Correction eur-cad range
Reply
It is now 15330/15569 and not 15693... well so far for my calculation, 130 miss in it and wrong entries arrive. That�s life....
So range now 240. Normal range 300 so have to suffer.
Dubai Tony 13:48 GMT January 26, 2016
AUD/JPY
Reply
Sell AUDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
Does anyone have any advice on the AUD/JPY pair.
Hillegom Purk 13:13 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Well i use a wide stop, and use small positions. and scale in and out. I have time all day to do this...
London Chris 13:08 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Purk how do you handle stops with your strategy if eurcad moves outside your expected range?
GVI Forex john bland 13:01 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
DAX -23
DJ +16
SP +3
Risk off trade faded as wti recovered to above $30. Last $30.37 +0.03
US 2.003% -0.9bp
DE 0.382% -2.1bp
UK 1.654% -1.1bp
Hillegom Purk 12:55 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Well Chris. Since there is no range in e/u lately I am looking at the eur/cad and I like it because it gives back pips from lows and highs. Impossible to take them all but 20-50 pips is nice, and one can do it several times a day.
Cheers!
London Chris 12:51 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Purk, I like your range approach but eurcad is too volatile for my liking, I stick with the main currencies and look at the extremes.
What makes it hard is when trading is held hostage to the random moves in crude and equities. You can have the right idea but it turns out wrong when the correlation algos run market and why I like the range idea.
Hillegom Purk 11:39 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
good observation...
Singapore SC 11:33 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Purk, are you long this pair looking for the high?
Hillegom Purk 11:29 GMT January 26, 2016
eur/cad ranges
Reply
15412-15693 : 280 pips. Normal pattern now seeking for the high. Low last week was 15237. Yesterdays low was 15274...
Yesterdays range was 250...
Would be nice to see 15693 again...
GVI Forex 11:29 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Note this post last night and how the upside stalled just below the 200 hour mva (gold line). Downside so far holding above 1.0820-25 support.
hk ab 11:26 GMT January 26, 2016
Sell
Reply
Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
sell in, 1.4260, more at 1.43 pending
GVI Forex john bland 11:14 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
DAX -48
futures
DJ -38
SP -3
10-yr
US 1.994% -1.8bp
DE 0.380% -2.3bp
UK 1.642% -2.3bp
wti $30.38 +0.04
Eur mostly weaker on its crosses, but up vs. CHF and GBP. Equities in a risk-off posture, but they are not as weak as they were earlier.
UK OT 11:07 GMT January 26, 2016
Retracements or resumption of trend?
The jury is out but you can see the influence of oil on all markets. This ultra high correlations will not last but while they go on expect more intra day volatility in game battle for $30
UK OT 09:35 GMT January 26, 2016
Retracements or resumption of trend?
Reply
Crucial time for oil and all markets to see if the move off the high for oil is a retracement of the move up or a resumption of trend. Watch $30
Mtl JP 09:04 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Kuwait says it's ready to "cooperate" to stabilize markets
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kuwait-says-its-ready-to-cooperate-to-stabilize-markets-2016-01-26?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
-
a spark lady, a spark might set crude prices on fire
Mtl JP 08:50 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
really... No-one thinks 'the authorities' - Central Banks, Governments - can pull a rabbit out of the hat this time. really ???
-
ok .... maybe not thinks ..... but hopes
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/bridgewaters-dalio-feds-next-move-toward-qe-not-tightening.html
�I think a move to a quantitative easing would bolster psychology .... every country in the world needs an easier monetary policy.� - Ray Dalio Bridgewater founder and enemy of the people
Hong Kong 08:00 GMT January 26, 2016
AceTrader Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
Reply
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 26 Jan 2016 05:32 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0852
As euro has rebounded on Monday on safe-haven buying in tandem with yen due to renewed weakness in the Dow and crude oil price, suggesting 'gyrations' inside near term established range of 1.0921-1.0776 would continue. Intra-day broad-based decline in Asian stocks suggests upside bias remains for further gain.
However, break of res area at 1.0901-21 is needed to retain bullish prospect of subsequent headway towards 1.0960/70.
On the downside, below 1.0806/09 would shift risk to the downside for weakness towards 1.0799 but only break of last Thursday's post-ECB meeting low at 1.0776 would pressure price to 1.0730/40.
houston mw 07:47 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
My estimate is for a Fed to take rates to 0% by summer and negative late summer or early fall. Definitely will make it harder for Democratic candidates to stand and defend Obama's 8 years.
Amman wfakhoury 07:35 GMT January 26, 2016
EURUSD move big
Amman wfakhoury 14:40 GMT 01/25/2016
EURUSD 10865 confirmed .
10830 return level.
______________________
10865 reached
Sydney ACC 07:29 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
Every recession since WWII has got progressively worse. Part of the reason has been actions of governments and central banks endeavouring to ameliorate the effects of each one of these recessions. This has effectively compounded the effects of the next one.
If I'm right the next one is going to be a humdinger.
Stock up on the baked beans.
Paris ib 07:23 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
Personally I think this clear out will have very healthy consequences for the world in general, although the control freaks and the deviants won't agree with me. Discrediting 'the authorities' is no bad thing. Neither is discrediting 'the media', which is really a joke these days. Maybe it always has been but now it shows.
Paris ib 07:21 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
John I agree with you about the NO V shaped recovery. And I think everyone, including the central bankers, have already got there. Maybe Mom and Pop investor will be surprised if they have been listening to all the reassuring rhetoric from the 'pundits'. But that's about it.
No-one thinks 'the authorities' - Central Banks, Governments - can pull a rabbit out of the hat this time. So crunch time. Or party time. Or however you see it.
Amman wfakhoury 05:57 GMT January 26, 2016
GOLD 1113.60
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 07:15 GMT January 22, 2016
Gold we have previous confirmed level 1113.60 and we work on it.
any decline we add and exit.
______________________________
1113.60 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Hong Kong 02:51 GMT January 26, 2016
AceTrader Jan 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
Reply
26 Jan 2016 02:33GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dollar falls in Asian trading on Tuesday as market is back to 'risk-off' mode due to intra-day broad-based weakness in Asian stocks following overnight decline in the Dow caused by a sharp retreat in crude oil price (benchmark Brent crude came off over 8% from yesterday's $ 32.70 high to 30.00 in early Asian trading), traders are buying the yen and euro and to a lesser extent, the Swiss franc as sage-haven currencies.
Looks like price would remain under pressure as the Nikkie is currently down by 376 points and selling the pair on recovery is recommended.
Offers have been lowered to 118.30/35 and more above with stops reported above last week's 118.88 high.
Initial bids are noted at 118.00-117.90 with stops below there, more stops are touted below 117.50.
Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data coming out later in the day including Caseshiller home price indices, Markit services PMI and consumer confidence.
Mtl JP 02:02 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
I do not understand how "1.0850 sets the tone"
which way the next 20/30 pips ?
I think / bet 1.0830
u ?
GVI Forex 01:42 GMT January 26, 2016
Tuesday's Trading Thread
Reply
EURUSD: 1.0850
HOD so far just below the 100 hour mva (1.0861)
200 hour mva at 1.0876 is almost a flat line, reflecting the difficulty building momentum in this pair although only above 1,09 would shift the risk.
1.0850 sets the tone while within 1.08-1.09
Correlations should continue to drive fx.
Mtl JP 01:31 GMT January 26, 2016
Market Timers Losing Their Touch?
cutesy zerohedge:
In just 44 somewhat anger-and-frustration-filled seconds, DoubleLine's bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach unleashes some very uncomfortable truths on Janet Yellen and the "idiots" at The Fed... "they have got to dial this [hawkish] rhetoric back or the markets are going to humiliate them."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/gundlach-slams-yellen-market-will-humiliate-you
--
Draghi Says ECB Credibility at Stake in Hitting Inflation Goal - bbrg
�Meeting our objective is about credibility,� the ECB president said in a speech near Frankfurt on Monday. �If a central bank sets an objective, it can�t just move the goalposts when it misses it.�
-
Here is hoping market makes a scimmia of Mario
Mtl JP 01:01 GMT January 26, 2016
BREAKING NEWS
Sell Trade Set-Up
Entry: 1.553x Target: 1.50 Stop: > 1.5775
kw 20:18 / yes nega rates are also for us small fries
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In 2016 I d like to see some Asia traders and trade thoughts
the above trade idea is eur/sgd
coments welcome
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