nw kw 23:03 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
go oil faster fed hikes.
nw kw 21:59 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
see trapped big chart so time get orders . this week is brake out top side. if can run for xmas
dc CB 21:35 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
I am concerned that the appointment for Treasury Secretary offers either a great opportunity or a lost one or in one case would create a future problem.
The latter, obviously, is Larry Summers who is an extra bright version of Donald Rumsfeld, arrogantly unpleasant to his subordinates, dismissive to his equals and pandering to his superiors. I spent some time with Neil Rudenstine on Wednesday, and he would use even stronger terms ......
I think the one person with global credibility is Paul Volcker and credibility is as useful a currency as cash for addressing our problems and perhaps even rarer. He was at my house for election eve and did not object to my forwarding his name, but, properly, will not seek it directly.
The answer to the age issue, putting aside that he is demonstrably very active, would be to appoint Tim Geithner as deputy with the clear understanding, but not commitment, that he would succeed in a year or two. Geithner was at my house for dinner last spring with Paul, Felix, Henry Kissinger and a few others to discuss the situation as it then existed, and I was impressed with him, but he seemed a little young (that may be a reflection on me not him) so a few years of seasoning would not be a bad thing. I have talked to John Whitehead, Felix Rohatyn and Joe Flom about this, and they have authorized me to say that they fully support it.
Bob Pirie, founder of Skadden Arps, November 7, 2008
Podesta Email Reveals Why Larry Summers Did Not Become Obama's Treasury Secretary
JEddah Abb 20:43 GMT October 20, 2016
..
Reply
Usdcad now 1.3227.. i will try to sell near 1.3246 let see..
GVI Trading john bland 19:45 GMT October 20, 2016
Friday Trading
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Oct Fri
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
24-Oct Mon
All Day flash Mfg PMIs
25-Oct Tue
08:00 DE- IFO
14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
26-Oct Wed
All Day flash SVC PMI
00:30 AU- CPI
14:00 US- New Homes Sales
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude
27-Oct Thu
08:30 GB- GDP
12:30 US- Weekly Jobs
12:30 US- Durable Goods
23:30 JP- CPI
28-Oct Fri
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- University of Michigan
30-Oct Sun
00:00 RZ/GB Clocks turn back one hour
Trading Themes--
- As expected, the highlight of trade Thursday was the ECB policy board meeting outcome. While the ECB was the source of no surprises. Nevertheless, markets reacted by taking out stops above and below the markets in EURUSD. Personally, I think this was primarily a stop-hunting exercise for built-up stops by algos as a result of the narrow ranges we have seen all week.
- UK Retail Sales data were lacklustre, while Australian Employment data for September were weaker than expected. Friday sees key Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data.
- The final U.S. Presidential debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening likely has not changed the course of the election. Hillary Clinton has an insurmountable lead. The Republican party leadership is now focused on trying to salvage what they can from the key House and Senate races.
- U.S. Bond yields remain depressed following September CPI data and recent Fed comments. Both the Fed and BOE have started to make it clear that they would ignore an inflation overshoot to get their economies growing again.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
dc CB 19:28 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
PAR 18:41 GMT 10/20/2016
Who cares
??????????? maybe anybody trading NYMEX crude ????????????
EOD chart for 10/19. High in for this swing??
Livingston nh 19:07 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
The bond markets may start to care IF crude price rises (not my expectation) - Fed says it will tolerate higher inflation - it's inflation excludes CRUDE - so PCE ex Food and Crude will not rise even if oil spikes above $70
Now the bond market at these levels can't afford to be so sanguine (TIPS especially because the index benchmark does not have the same luxury as the Fed) -- as I mentioned yesterday the SERVICES portion of CPI is 3.4% so a pop in crude probably affects EXPECTATIONS (the bugaboo that Yellen says Fed wishes to avoid re: sales of holdings)
I don't see a spike in crude but a bond rout from here might even get the attention of the Fed wonkers
PAR 18:41 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
Who cares. Saudi bonds have been sold . Huge commissions for US banks . Everybody Happy .
dc CB 18:31 GMT October 20, 2016
Crude
Reply
big "unexpected" draw yesterday. that number was for the prior week when 2 hurricaines were off the Altantic coast.
"we imported 6.9Mb less oil last week than the week before. So not only was the draw NOT due to an uptick in demand but, without the hurricane disrupting shipping, we would have had a 1.7Mb BUILD last week." Philstockworld
so baring a bigger war in the mid-east and another hurricaine, the draws are prob over. Today was the last day for Nov contract. Dec will go off the boards Before Thanksgiving.
dc CB 18:07 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Dump Number 13 Podesta Data Dump Wikileaks released yet another 3,000; Total Emails Released Is Now 23,423
dc CB 18:01 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
In a few moments, Obama, speaking in the key battleground state of Florida, will to offer his prescription how to fixing Obamacare, also known incorrectly as the Affordable Care Act, his signature healthcare law, especially as a premium surge is expected to sweep America over the next two weeks ahead of the election. However, any remedies will be left up to his successor and the next Congress. Battling a barrage of negative headlines about rising health insurance premiums and shrinking doctor networks for people participating in the program,
Live link via ZH
Livingston nh 17:33 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
PAR - ahh! the TWIN Deficits - the bane of modern forecast economics -- the US can no more run a current account surplus than it can a budget surplus, the consequences in a NON-Widget based world economy would be REAL deflation, not this wishy washy whiney make believe deflation
JEddah Abb 17:29 GMT October 20, 2016
..
Reply
Eurgbp now .8919..0.883 it is expected next..
PAR 17:02 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
When will the world bank raise inflation forecasts ?
PAR 17:00 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
When was the last time the USA had a current account surplus ? I cannot remember . I can remember Greenspan wondering what to do with it once in a 100 year budget surplus and having big crazy discussions about how to spend surpluses which look crazy $ 16 trillion deficits further .
Mtl JP 16:33 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
World Bank raises 2017 crude-oil price forecast to $55 a barrel
fwiw
Paris ib 15:44 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
haifa ac.... Europe doesn't stink as such. We had the manipulated Greek crisis which morphed into the European bond crisis. If you had bought bonds during those crises you made money. And now we have the manipulated refugee crisis. These people suddenly turn up in Europe (mostly from Africa as far as I can tell) nearly 15 years after the U.S. invaded Iraq? Come on. FWIW the economy here seems to be doing better than most people expect. And much, much better than the corporate media would have you believe. The European 'elite' is still going along with the strong USD thing though and the massive austerity programme has just created the enormous EU current account SURPLUS, which in turn just measures the money being squeezed out of the European economy and exported to..... well the U.S. I guess. Somebody has gotta pay for all these expensive wars. Might as well be the Europeans. The Asian crisis paid for the U.S. economic expansion of the 1990s. If they can keep the 'European crisis' going with one thing or another maybe they can keep the U.S. economy turning over now.
haifa ac 15:36 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
"USD may not be the safest place to be, near/after elections time."
and you think that if that happens in the USA --Europe , or any other country in the world will be safe?
The USD has not been a function of AMERICAN fundamentals for the last 6 years! it is only measured relative to the Euro and it is going to "appreciate" because Europe stinks.
Paris ib 15:34 GMT October 20, 2016
The Next Clinton Presidency
Let's assume that Hillary Clinton wins. She is the establishment candidate. My main take on a Clinton victory are geopolitical. We have this pivot to Asia under Clinton - so maybe some kind of show down with China - and the likelihood of an escalation in Syria (with some commentators suggesting the risk of WWIII, which actually makes me yawn to be honest). More U.S. engagement in the Middle East and more military spending (which is high already, right?) and maybe some kind of confrontation with Russia in the Ukraine.
Domestically more health care spending to try and fix this Obamacare mess. So bigger deficits, more borrowing. And Obama already blew the budget, only nobody seems to have noticed. What did that guy get the Nobel peace prize for again? Oh yeah, being another establishment candidate. I can't think of any other reason they gave it to him.
Under Clinton: continued emphasis on keeping the USD strong, at least as part of policy, so they can keep the capital inflows coming. They need that foreign money. FED will make noises about hiking but I'm not looking for an active FED in any scenario, Trump or Clinton. Anything else? What changes for the U.S. and the world?
What else do we do? Sit around and wait for a recession to hit? That's what all the talking heads are yapping on about at the moment.
USD stays strongish for the time being. Yields don't rise excessively because everyone is talking recession. But we are all waiting for 'big news'. After last nights really, really dull and dreary debate I have totally lost interest in the U.S. Presidential election. So now looking post election. Maybe we drift into the New Year.
HK RF@ 15:23 GMT October 20, 2016
Read their lips. Things may happen!!!
Reply
Last week, at a Republican rally in Cincinnati, one Trump supporter warned of a "revolution" and said there would be "bloodshed" if Mrs Clinton won the presidency.
"We're going to have a revolution and take them out of office if that's what it takes. There's going to be a lot of bloodshed," Dan Bowman told the Boston Globe.
USD may not be the safest place to be, near/after elections time.
GVI Forex Blog 14:31 GMT October 20, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 21 October 2016
Reply
October 20, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 21, 2016.
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: No Major Data
- North America: CA- CPI, Retail Sales, US- Rig Count, COT Report
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Oct Fri
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
GVI Data Calendar for 21 October 2016
Mtl JP 14:06 GMT October 20, 2016
Why Stops Are the Key to Trading
exactly right Jay
what you bring to the table is the how of finding the "sensitive" price points (stop sniffing/hunting)
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:40 GMT October 20, 2016
Why Stops Are the Key to Trading
JP, that will not help you trade. My report opens your eyes to a fresh trading strategy.
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:23 GMT October 20, 2016
Why Stops Are the Key to Trading
If you have not read this report you should do so today as the price action is a prime example of what drives the fx market.
I have a great report from the Amazing Trader Guide, Why Stops Are the Key to Trading to share with you.
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Amman wfakhoury 13:18 GMT October 20, 2016
RE EURUSD 11014
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 12:43 GMT October 18, 2016
EURUSD: Reply
EURUSD 11014 MAG any decline or rise will return to it.
10985 confirmed .
____________________
10985 reached and 11014.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Amman wfakhoury 13:16 GMT October 20, 2016
Re GBPUSD 12235
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 12:22 GMT October 18, 2016
GBPUSD 12235 MAG: Reply
12235 MAG level ..any rise above it or decline below it will return to it.
____________________
12235 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Draghi whipsaw - EURUSD falls
08:47 (EU) ECB chief Draghi: ECB will announce what its plans for future months are at its Dec meeting after considering council technical work Q&A
- Held seminar on options regarding tweaks to QE
- an abrupt ending to QE is not a likely outcome, was not discussed
- low rates have worked; negative rates have not harmed monetary policy transmission-
Have not discussed whether interest rates could be cut further
- Much of today's discussion was over any potential asset scarcity if issue became a problem
- no reason to be concerned about bail-in rules, the rules have enough flexibility to deal with different scenarios
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trading 12:45 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
EURUSD spikes higher on this
08:43(EU) ECB chief Draghi: Did not discuss QE extension today
- Extraordinary policy measures will not last forever
- Source TradeTheNews.com
GVI Trading john bland 12:35 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Standard rhetoric from Draghi so far.
GVI Trading john bland 11:48 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
ECB keeps policy steady. Main focus remains on December meeting for any policy adjustments.
GVI Trading john bland 11:06 GMT October 20, 2016
ECB Today
Reply
Market Expectations:
-- Expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
-- Asset purchases to be maintained at �80bn/month until at least March 2017.
GVI Trading 10:55 GMT October 20, 2016
May to Tell EU Leaders There Will Be No Turning Back From Brexit -- bloomberg.com
Reply
"Theresa May will tell her fellow European Union leaders that the Brexit vote must be honored and there will be no second referendum as a way to stop the U.K. leaving the bloc, according to two senior British officials.
Attending her first EU summit as prime minister on Thursday, May will ram home the point that Britain is on a one-way track out of the EU after some of the bloc�s leaders suggested Brexit might not happen, the officials said.
May�s comments, which she is planning to make during a working dinner with fellow leaders in Brussels during the two-day summit, will be her clearest signal yet that she isn�t seeking a close relationship between the U.K. and the EU after Brexit, one of the officials said. Both officials asked not to named discussing the prime minister�s strategy..."
May to Tell EU Leaders There Will Be No Turning Back From Brexit -- bloomberg.com
Mtl JP 10:35 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
thky red.
I ll be looking to shorting possible euro rallies similarly to your outline
gt !
london red 10:31 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
euro eod straddle barely half a fig (53 pips) suggesting we wont see either 109 or 11050 today. ecb has the potential to create an unwanted surge in euro today if it doesnt keep its foot on the easing rhetoric. a week ago there were some comments regarding tapering, if these aren't addressed and disbanded today, we shall see euro run topside stops. any rally should stay below 11230 unless taper is confirmed in which case may see a little bit higher than that before month is out.
Mtl JP 10:25 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
I am putting short eurdlr restrained robot on pause for the duration of mario prancing. I am turning on my s-t scalper instead.
Eurdlr short restrained auto trading robot will get turned on again when I ll feel markets will be done with attention on mario and will be focused on dec Fed again
GVI Trading john bland 10:13 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
Equities Mild Risk-On
DAX +25
DJ +32
SP +3
10-yr 1.757% +0.5bp
GVI Trading 10:06 GMT October 20, 2016
British minister says banks need access to EU market -- Reuters.com
Reply
"Oct 20 Britain must find a "mechanism" that gives banks based in the UK access to the European Union's single market after the country leaves the bloc, a government minister said on Thursday. Banks who depend on a "passport" to offer their services across the EU from a base in London, worry they will be cut off from continental customers.
"We know that the banking industry needs to have something that gives them access to the single market," Mark Garnier, a junior international trade minister told the British Bankers' Association annual conference..."
British minister says banks need access to EU market -- Reuters.com
GVI Trading john bland 08:33 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Mixed Retail Sales after revisions.
GVI Trading john bland 08:19 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
20-Oct Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Philly Fed
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
21-Oct Fri
12:30 CA- CPI
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
Trading Themes--
- Odds are the final U.S. Presidential debate in Las Vegas on Wednesday evening has not changed the course of the election. Hillary Clinton probably has not lost her insurmountable lead. The Republican party leadership will continue to focus on trying to salvage the House and Senate races.
- Today sees an active calendar with one of the major highlights the ECB policy board meeting outcome. UK Retail Sales data are due shortly, while Australian Employment data for September were weaker than expected.
- U.S. Bond yields remain depressed following mixed September CPI data and recent Fed comments. Both the Fed and BOE have started to make it clear that they would ignore an inflation overshoot to get their economies growing again.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Haifa ac 07:47 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
The real winner of the debates is Hillary Dress designer
First debate-- RED-- the REPUBLICAN COLOR and THE RAG TO IRATE THE BULLS in PAMPLONA
Second debate-- BLACK AND WHITE to show the CLEAR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
Third debate--PURE WHITE to show how all the wikileaks and corruption allegations cannot change the true color of HILLARY THE PURE SAINT!
who ever decided on her wear-- is a GENIUS!
GVI Trading john bland 07:45 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Australia Employment September 2016
-- EARLIER NEWS --
Employment: -9.8K vs. +15.0K exp. vs. -3.9K (r -8.6K ) prev.
Rate: 5.605 vs. 5.70% exp. vs. 5.60% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
abs,gov.au
EARLIER: August Employment data falls. A -50.3K fall in full-time jobs was offset by an increase in part-time work.
SaaR KaL 05:14 GMT October 20, 2016
EURUSD Cable and USDJPY
Reply
Will long EURUSD with 1.4 to 3.2 big figures from Previous Close
Every other day place orders to accumalte
Cable same way with 2.5 to 5 big figres
USDJPY shorts with 2 to 4 Big figures
all till Mid Nov
IMO Cable is near a 3 year low
bali sja 04:42 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
he is not perfect but out of the two available, Trump is so much better than Hillary
bali sja 04:41 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
US need Trump. We are fed up with current hypocrisy from politicians, all talks. Trump's pragmatism and action-oriented nature as businessman is needed, not just some talk like Hillary can do.
dc CB 04:38 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
JP
it dosen't matter, all the MSM and all the Print Press will be running the aforementioned HEADLINE. It was the "there you go again" Reagan to Carter, the Nixon sweat flop that won the debate for Kennedy, the Gore walking over to Bush. The Swift Boat
It is the defining moment AS Per The Media, that will bury Wikileaks, the FBI accusations, anything else that may be coming out against Clinton.
Haifa ac 04:36 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
"NYT: Trump Won�t Say if He Will Accept Election Results"
Politically--Terrible answer
Realistically--most honest answer you would hear from a candidate!
he won his place in history
if the elections are rigged--he should contest them.
Mtl JP 04:18 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
Donald had the lucky opportunity of being last to make a "why me" statement that he could have used to put the election away.
I think he blew it.
dc CB 03:22 GMT October 20, 2016
Any News from the Freak Show?
Headlines
NYT: Trump Won�t Say if He Will Accept Election Results
Wash Post: Trump refuses to say whether he�ll accept election results.
�I will tell you at the time,� Trump says, promising �suspense�
Donald Trump�s startling break with American democratic tradition was the most striking moment of his final debate with Hillary Clinton.
Israel Dil 02:54 GMT October 20, 2016
gold
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: $3'333 / $6'666 / $9'999 Stop:
Clinton either Trump, both by nature have a perfect personal character to be US presidents during the meltdown era of the USA.
Mark my words, US real estate market to turn sooner than one may imagine into one way SELLERS only.
dc CB 02:43 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
However, the take away is
Trump refused to say that he would accept the results of the election... He basically said --I make that decision later, I'll keep you in suspense.
That will be the headline tom and that clip will be run over and over and over again......
Sydney ACC 02:39 GMT October 20, 2016
US Debt
Reply
Republican presidents after Eisenhower have increased the federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product by a total of 60%. Democratic presidents have reduced the debt as a percentage of GDP by a total of 9%.
President Obama is the only Democratic President during whose time in office the debt has risen relative to GDP. The data extends to the end of FY2014 (September 2014). President Obama's bar will almost certainly drop by the end of his presidency, as GDP growth is relatively high and the deficit is relatively low. 2/5ths of the increase during President Obama's presidency occurred during the first year while the country was still in the midst of the Great Recession.
In terms of the change in the debt to GDP ratio per year, each Republican has performed worse than the previous Republican president. George H.W. Bush increased the debt as a percentage of GDP by almost 14%, which would have put him just barely behind his son had that continued for a second term.
Generally speaking, with the dramatic exception of President Clinton, earlier presidents have tended to perform better and more recent presidents have tended to perform less well. This is because GDP growth and taxes both tended to be higher in the earlier years of this range than they have been in recent years.
dc CB 02:35 GMT October 20, 2016
Thursday Trade
dc CB 20:21 GMT October 19, 2016
it is my personnal opinion that Trump no longer wants to be president... it would alter his lifestyle. to much.
I'll be watching to see if he throws the debate.
Well I was wrong with that thought. This is the most unbiased debate of the three. Chris Wallace from Fox , Mike can be proud
Mtl JP 00:28 GMT October 20, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
cretin yak
Dudley "Fed Chair Yellen's comments reflect the consensus of the FOMC"
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