dc CB 23:12 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Yellen won't do anything. The "statement" will be a retread with a few phrases changed, which the "oracles of finance" will parse to death.
The real actioin is the election and the apparently ignored by the press - revolt by the FBI - to scupper you know who. And unless the Rooskies have infiltrated the ranks of the FBI (which is a charge I'm sure will be thrown out there), this is gonna be a bad news week for the Hillary camp.
see BBG link below.
FBI Surprises With Files on Clinton �01 Pardon of Marc Rich
Mtl JP 22:33 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
fwiw, still keeping BoD on usdcad
Mtl JP 22:20 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
nh 20:35 what is your "Tomorrow would be better" bet's target price ?
tia
Livingston nh 20:35 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
My thought is that her three dissenters disappear after December - if she thought the economy could take a hike tomorrow would be better than December (the election issue is not an issue unless you make it one) - December raises issues more critical than November
She doesn't want to do anything but she needs to keep the three in line (she would have smacked down Brainard in Sept if she really wanted to hike) until they are replaced in January
Tomorrow would be better just in case Trump wins 'cause she's gone if he does and she'll take flak for the next year as a lame duck (gotta have somebody to blame if there's a recession and Trump knows where to direct FIRE)
It's not the Earth the Meek inherit; it's the Dirt
GVI Trading john bland 20:35 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Large build in crude. WTI falls.
dc CB 20:35 GMT November 1, 2016
Place Your Bets Ladies and Gentlemen...Place your bets
What appears about to happen seems inevitable and predictable.
If Hillary Clinton is elected, the email scandal, the pay-for-play scandal involving the Clinton Foundation, �Bill Clinton, Inc.,� the truthfulness of her testimony, and reports of Clinton-paid dirty tricksters engaging in brownshirt tactics at Trump rallies, are all going to be investigated more thoroughly by the FBI.
And if Clinton is president, there is no way her Justice Department can investigate the Clinton scandals, any more than this city in the early 1970s would entrust an investigation into Watergate to the Nixon Justice Department.
If Clinton wins this election, and Republicans hold onto one or both houses of Congress, investigations of the Clinton scandals will start soon after her inaugural and will go on for years. And the clamor for a special prosecutor, who will, as Archibald Cox did with Nixon, build a huge staff and spend years investigating, will become irresistible.
Hillary�s Watergate?
GVI Trading john bland 20:23 GMT November 1, 2016
Dollar falls against euro, rallies against peso on U.S. election jitters -- Reuters.com
Reply
"The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in nearly three weeks against the euro on Tuesday on U.S. political uncertainty, while the Mexican peso hit a more than three-week low on fears that Republican Donald Trump might win the U.S. presidential election.
Traders remained nervous about the outcome of the Nov. 8 election after news on Friday that the FBI was probing newly found emails related to U.S Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private server.
Clinton is viewed as the candidate of the status quo, while there is greater uncertainty over what a victory for Trump might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade deals and the domestic economy..."
Dollar falls against euro, rallies against peso on U.S. election jitters -- Reuters.com
GVI Trading john bland 20:16 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
nh- my guess is the Fed will be cautious about what it signals tomorrow. IN other words, I think they WANT to hike in December, but they don't have a lot to gain by locking themselves in ahead of two Jobs reports. Any thoughts??
Livingston nh 20:03 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Yellen needs to be careful which side she offends if the market starts to think there is no Yearly rate hike- BBRG had an article about three banks saying no hike until 2017 and Goldman worrying about a "strong" dollar giving the Fed pause in Dec
A 20% change in Market opinion into the Payroll Friday might send a "COMEY" message into next week -"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive"
GO Janet - there is no upside
GVI Trading john bland 19:49 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
NOTE: we flagged a risk of a change in our EURUSD statistical bias yesterday. It has flipped from "DOWN" to "UP" today with spot EURUSD ending above its 20-day average of 1.1008. Odds on a Fed rate hike by year end are 64% vs. 69% Monday
Register for the Amazing Trader 
GVI Trading john bland 19:45 GMT November 1, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Reply
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
2-Nov Wed
All-Day Mfg PMIs
7:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Private Employment
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
3-Nov Thu
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- Productivity
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
4-Nov Fri
All Day Service PMIs
12:30 US- Jobs/Trade
12:30 CA- Jobs/Trade
Trading Themes--
- Tuesday has been a rough day fr equity markets in Europe and the U.S. as it appears that investors have started to worry about the new uncertainties related to U.S. Presidential vote in a week. The talking heads still feel Hillary Clinton will be elected, but after the Brexit fiasco, their opinions are not to be trusted. After some EZ holidays Tuesday, Wednesday will see final manufacturing PMIs from major economies on the Continent.
- Today saw Chinese PMIs improve and the Japanese flash PMI revised down modestly. U.S. manufacturing PMIs were modestly better. Wednesday sees the latest Fed policy decision. Market pundits feel there is no chance for a policy change just before the U.S. elections, but hints about the December decision would not surprise.
- As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Japan pushed out by one year the time frame for meeting its 2% inflation target.
- On Thursday a BOE policy decision is due. No policy changes are expected. BOE Governor Carney is also expected to announce that he is not stepping down in the immediate future. On Friday, October employment data are due from the U.S. and Canada.
- The likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential election remains up in the air with just one week to go. As for the FBI disclosure on Friday, there simply is not enough time for a large number of documents (650K) to be cleared for release, and voting has already been underway and will continue.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off
GVI Trading john bland 19:22 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Reports Colonial Pipeline gasoline pipe rupture in Georgia will be repaired much faster than expected
-- CNBC
GVI Trading john bland 19:00 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
flight to safety in 10-yr 1.822% -1.1bp.
Livingston nh 18:57 GMT November 1, 2016
FOMC
The Great Communicator better be very specific about a rate hike in December - 70% of the folks are positioned for the Yearly Event // Data dependent nonsense with 2 NFP looming is likely to be a problem
london red 18:42 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
both euro and swissy touched res but unable to overcome and with stocks bouncing its a potential turning point. euro prev high of 68 marginally beaten but not held and swissy channel line at 9727 the same. a strongly hourly close for usd on both puts them to bed. stops havent been run thats the only caveat.
Livingston nh 18:27 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Treasurys recovering losses on flight to safety -- an independent FED? we all have bosses
Livingston nh 17:51 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
OIL moving towards last daily mva support at 144 ema just below $46 --- under there white space to $43 break point
GVI Trading john bland 17:44 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
S&P emini breaks 2100 (2098.3 LOD)
Cash S&P = 2105.
Livingston nh 17:37 GMT November 1, 2016
FOMC
Reply
Markets sending Yellen a reminder of who is in charge
Livingston nh 17:19 GMT November 1, 2016
STOX
SPX 2100 is the big gap from the post Brexit recovery
london red 17:16 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
prev high is at 11068 shud b stops abv there. if run nxt res 11110-20 then 11140-60 where substantial
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 17:03 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Register for the Amazing Trader
Hard trade is the right trade day and that is buying EURUSD dips, selling USD blips and no reason to fight the tape.
Now 1.1050 sets the tone with little on Amazing Trader charts until above 1.11, so no obvious stops other than at the HOD.
Classic day for the Amazing Trader
GVI Trading john bland 16:09 GMT November 1, 2016
Dollar dips on U.S. election jitters; stocks edge lower -- Reuters.com
Reply
"The dollar slipped, demand for gold picked up and stocks edged lower on Tuesday as investors sought safe havens amid mounting uncertainty about next week's U.S. presidential election.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors awaited the completion of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, while oil held just above one-month lows following its sharp slide on Monday.
The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in more than two weeks against the euro EUR= on Tuesday on U.S. political uncertainty, while the Mexican peso MXN= hit a more than three-week low on positioning for a potential victory for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump..."
Dollar dips on U.S. election jitters; stocks edge lower -- Reuters.com
GVI Trading john bland 16:02 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Markets worried about U.S, election uncertainties??
GVI Trading john bland 15:54 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Atlanta Fed GDP Now 2.30% vs 2.70% Oct 31 (yesterday)
Source: TTN
PAR 15:09 GMT November 1, 2016
Crude
Reply
Looking for an unexpected big draw in crude inventories.
Livingston nh 14:47 GMT November 1, 2016
STOX
Reply
We haven't had a close below SPX 2120 although Brainard speech scare and e-mail Friday touched (the low was 2115 mid Oct and then a KRAZY bounce higher) - so Risk off into the FED is often a wild card because a simple word from Yellen can be VOLATILITY
london red 13:03 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
euro. pulled away from initial res at 11038 but a strong close to new hour (just had a reasonable solid one with good tail) may see further res at 55 and 68 tested. only a move above that prev high of 11068 points to a test abv 111. an hourly close back under 11010 suggests squeeze over and u shud look for a test lower into fed. stops are often run pre fed but rrarely mkt stays with those levels shortly before the meet.
stops positioned against risk on likely to be run on hillary win while thos against risk off run on trump, that much is clear initially. tho i expect euphoria to quickly ebb for risk on in terms of dollar on hillary win. with trump should also be the case (of the ebbing but here of risk off) but more selective.
Israel Dil 12:58 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Buy Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:
CNN: Sources say Turkish military starts to deploy tanks, equipment to Silopi area near Iraqi border
Livingston nh 12:47 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Trying to gauge an election outcome is risky and much of the past couple of months sounds like BREXIT, BUT even harder, perhaps impossible to judge even if you KNOW the election results is WHAT happens NEXT - the consequences are UNKNOWABLE
You can try to prepare but STUFF happens
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 12:14 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Register for the Amazing Trader
I know this is the political season but would like to see the focus be on trading as that is what we are here for, at least a better balance.
For those in our meeting today, the run up in the EURUSD (out of a firmer EURGBP), paused below the 1.1039 level I highlighted as a tough one to crack.
GVI Trading john bland 12:00 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and the multinationals
FWIW- The first thing every new U.S. President discovers is how little power the job has on the domestic front. They promise the stars, but the Congress usually says no.
Israel Dil 11:17 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and the multinationals
Buy Crude
Entry: from time to time Target: $70+ / $100+ Stop: investor mode
due to commitments and links with foreign powers, Clinton cannot serve 80% of Americans. looking on the local US economy, Trump should mean improvement for 80% of Americans, not because he is so smart or for having a plan. for being a complete outsider it means he owes NO ONE and only that makes the 80% to benefit. IMO
Israel Dil 11:08 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and the multinationals
JM, yes, and still his promise to force manufacturing jobs back to the US are sort of "tax". means triggering inflation, rate hikes, and stronger USD. So in any case it would mean stronger USD. isn't it?
or in simple words, Trump may turn as the BEST THING FOR US ECONOMY. his intellectual poverty, his emotional narrowness, should lead the USA as a whole into the state post WWII growth rates. just imagine the impact on data when 80% of Apple products would be US made.
GVI Trading john bland 11:03 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
Equities Risk On
DAX +26
DJ +41
SP +7
10- yr 1.852% +1.9 bp
NY JM 10:52 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and the multinationals
Dil, if Trump wins (still the longer shot bet), his platform is to cut corporate taxes and bring the money parked abroad home. This would be USD bullish if enacted.
Israel Dil 10:51 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and crude oil
Reply
in case Trump is the next US president, it would mean that $80 will be the new $30 line. in any scenario for 2017, $70+ should print, that's makes $100+ reasonable target for crude within 18 months without wider war in the middle east while wider war in the middle east during the coming 18 months have at least +++70% chances. So, MAKE MONEY!!!
Israel Dil 10:42 GMT November 1, 2016
Trump and the multinationals
Reply
as Trump suggested few times new rules for the game, realizing that electing Trump cannot bring job losses in USA. still, is it a reasonable scenario that US multinationals will convert their USD assets abroad into other currencies than USD after the elections in case Trump to appear as the new president?
london red 10:05 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
re cable i wouldnt be surprised to see stops over 12330/35 run pre us election but i expect it to go up and stay higher. all rallies are for selling with initial tgt sub 120 again. topside can stretch to 125 126 127 on trump but wont last. similarly yen might see 110 on a hilary win but will get run dwn back to evens within short space of time.
GVI Trading john bland 09:57 GMT November 1, 2016
BOJ keeps policy steady, delays inflation target again -- Reuters.com
Reply
"The Bank of Japan held off on expanding stimulus on Tuesday despite once again pushing back the timing for hitting its inflation target, signaling that it will keep policy unchanged unless a severe shock threatens to derail a fragile economic recovery. The BOJ maintained its view that the world's third-largest economy will expand moderately as exports and consumption emerge from the doldrums.
But it also warned that risks to the outlook were skewed to the downside and that price momentum was weakening, an unusually bleak assessment that underscored its waning conviction of achieving the elusive inflation target..."
BOJ keeps policy steady, delays inflation target again -- Reuters.com
bali sja 09:49 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
red, are you expecting more upside for cable as well?
Amazon P. Schweizer 09:47 GMT November 1, 2016
Reply
Clinton Cash The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich (Audiobook) By Peter Schweizer (Epub - PDF And AudioBook)
full article, click here
london red 09:36 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
further widening in spreads keeping euro and cable bid and suggests a little more upside certainly for euro. 11040-60 res more at 11108 11160-70. abv 113 required for a change in direction (on a closing basis)
GVI Trading john bland 09:33 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
UK Nov PMI a bit less than forecast. Prior reading revised up.
Israel Dil 09:29 GMT November 1, 2016
Marc Rich
any Chagoury
Clinton link...
Israel Dil 09:26 GMT November 1, 2016
Marc Rich
Reply
Gilbert Chagoury
GVI Trading john bland 09:08 GMT November 1, 2016
Tuesday Trading
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
1-Nov Tue
All Day EZ- Holidays
All Day final Mfg PMIs
03:00 AU- RBA Decision
03:00 JP- Bank of Japan Decision
2-Nov Wed
All-Day Mfg PMIs
7:55 DE- Employment
12:15 US- ADP Private Employment
14:30 US- EIA Crude
18:00 US- FOMC Decision
3-Nov Thu
00:00 JP- Holiday
All Day Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:30 US- Productivity
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
4-Nov Fri
All Day Service PMIs
12:30 US- Jobs/Trade
12:30 CA- Jobs/Trade
Trading Themes--
- Today the All Saints Day Holiday is being observed in a number of European centers. London is open. This is also the first day of the new month which sees the release of global PMIs. Those PMIs postponed by the holiday will be released starting on Wednesday. Chinese PMIs improve and Japan saw its flash PMI revised down modestly.
- As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Japan pushed out by one year the time frame for meeting its 2% inflation target.
- Later in the week, central bank decisions are due from the Fed and BOE. On Friday, October employment data are due from the U.S. and Canada.
- The likely outcome of the U.S. Presidential election remains up in the air with just one week to go. As for the FBI disclosure on Friday, there simply is not enough time for a large number of documents (650K) to be cleared for release, and voting has already been underway and will continue.
- This cannot be helpful for Mrs. Clinton. Markets are not happy with uncertainty, and they will see a lot of uncertainty until election day (November 8) after all the votes are counted. I recommend you take anything that any political "expert" has to say about the election outcome with a grain of salt. There is no way to know at this juncture what will happen and everyone has an agenda.
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
GVI Trading john bland 08:42 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Switzerland October PMI
54.7 vs. 53.8 vs. 53.2 prev.
Swiss PMI improves to 54.7 from 53.2
GVI Trading john bland 08:36 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
Japan and China PMIs November 2016
China
NBS: 51.2 vs. 50.3 exp vs. 50.4 prev.
Caixin: 51.2 vs. 50.1 exp vs. 50.1 prev.
China NBS PMI above "50" boom or Bust line. Caixin up.
Japan
51.4 vs. 51.7 exp. vs. 50.1 prev.
Final July Japan PMI revised up
bali sja 07:58 GMT November 1, 2016
817,740 this year alone
I would say many of today's university students and grads are also unskilled!
Haifa ac 07:51 GMT November 1, 2016
817,740 this year alone
Absolutely stupid. The world is awash with unskilled laborers who are being replaced every day by robots. This is NOT the direction of the real economy. There are many university grads who will take those "jobs" today to pay their student loans.
The democrats want the illegal aliens for their votes. This cannot continue too long.
bali sja 07:44 GMT November 1, 2016
817,740 this year alone
they need cheap labor to remain competitive
now we know where those wonderful NFPs came from
Haifa ac 07:42 GMT November 1, 2016
817,740 this year alone
Reply
Obama has turned USA into a country without borders. Hillary wants to expand this policy. Is this a scheme to destroy America?
"We are simply overwhelmed," his statement said. In it he estimated the Fiscal Year 2016 illegal crossings at 817,740.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/sessions-critical-alert-817740-illegals-crossed-last-year/article/2606054#refresh-1
PAR 06:34 GMT November 1, 2016
CHINA
Reply
Chinese yuan weaker and chinese stocks and S & P futures sharply higher as Chinese betting like crazy on a Clinton victory.
China loves Hilary.
Hong Kong 02:50 GMT November 1, 2016
Intra-Day News and Views USD/JPY
Reply
01 Nov 2016 02:23GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr swung wildly in Mon's trading. Although price initially fell to 104.28 in New Zealand on Monday, cross-selling in yen quickly lifted the pair to 104.94 and the pair ratcheted higher in Europe to 105.08 on broad-based usd's strength, then climbing to session high of 105.23 ahead of New York midday after shrugging off downbeat U.S. Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed mfg index.
however, intra-day rally in cable and eur/usd triggered broad-based usd's retreat and pushed price back down to 104.79 near New York close, dlr edged lower to 104.67 shortly after Tokyo open on Tuesday.
Despite yesterday's strong bounce to 105.23, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below last Friday's 3-month peak at 105.53 would continue and range trading is seen ahead of BoJ's rate decision and then BoJ Gov. Kuroda's press conference at 06:30GMT.
Until then, offers are tipped at 105.00/10 and more above with stops above 105.30, more stops are touted above 105.55.
Initial bids are noted at 104.70-60 and more below with stops below 104.20, more stops have been reported below 104.00.
GVI Trading 01:14 GMT November 1, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:
MNI: CHINA CFLP OCT MANUFACTURING PMI AT 51.2 VS MNI MEDIAN 50.3 CHINA CFLP OCT SERVICES PMI AT 54.0 VS 53.7 IN SEP
dc CB 00:34 GMT November 1, 2016
Not the Onion
Breaking NUZ
the FBI is (this is not a joke)has a "preliminary inquary" a former(no longer with the Trump Camp) manager and TWO others with the ROOSKIES.
OMG Turmp is Sunk
haifa ac 00:20 GMT November 1, 2016
Not the Onion
Carville karbonkeled
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