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Forex Forum Archive for 11/13/2016
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Bali Sja 23:42 GMT November 13, 2016
Agree. A lot of buyers are trapped. Keep selling eurusd.
Mtl JP 23:26 GMT November 13, 2016
no. I particularly like when a 25/30 pip gap widens to 50+ and then load a play towards a close of the gap. More often than not is a very decent odds (r/r) play.
plz mind your risk (as yipee would always remind)
Kl Shawn 23:22 GMT November 13, 2016
Fs, euro will see parity first before 1.10 :) just no match against usd. Trump's effect.
Kl Fs 23:14 GMT November 13, 2016
Good one JP. Worth chasing it down you reckon? Euro will not see 1.10 it seems.
Livingston nh 23:08 GMT November 13, 2016
US Treasurys were sidelined Friday -- rates need to adjust -- see if the December Fed expectation gets hit (50/50?) // stox follow oil initially?
Mtl JP 21:57 GMT November 13, 2016
there should be a 30 pip gap down eurusd opening in few minutes
Livingston nh 20:47 GMT November 13, 2016
oh yeah - watch for nomination speculation regarding Treasury -- a FED hostile Secretary will send the policy message to Yellen along with proposed governors // this guy is a go along get along type -- you go along or you get along
Livingston nh 20:42 GMT November 13, 2016
Before US open the price of WTI will have tested sub $43 -- this may have an effect on the FOMC expectations because the policy of the past two years has been based on the price of oil -- keep in mind that Yellen is most likely a LAME duck
Livingston nh 20:01 GMT November 13, 2016
Trump Turns Conventional Wisdom Turned on Its Head
JP - first, regarding the markets (especially STOX) the GREAT ALGO SCAM was on full display this past Tuesday -- these programs are not "Learning (AI) systems" or even "Expert (i.e., trained) systems" they are alarm clocks, so whatever some folks believe about the future of trading it won't be based on these automatons -- so Scaramucci's reference to a DOOMSDAY script is essentially a criticism of Too many folks on one side of the BOAT (learned NOTHING from Brexit)
second, the FT article is absolutely on point that this was not a Triumph of Ideology - this was Rejection of Ideology - the author's criticism of BUSH, the second of his name is on point and the criticism of misnamed OBAMACARE is illustrative of "lifestyle maintenance" debt/regulation -- it's not our job to defend the World nor should DEBT levels (Tea Party sect) be a guiding principle in a non-widget based currency -- debt as investment is different than debt as a country club membership (I know -- Contacts can be Investment )
third, I disagree most vehemently with the author's "central bankers handcuffed by political dysfunction have had little choice but to provide extraordinary accommodation" - liquidity should be sufficient but low interest rates encourage hoarding and fiscal stimulus cannot be confined to infrastructure
This election was not about ideology, economic or social, but each state responded to it's own need and concerns -- it is unlikely that Congress faced with this will thwart or oppose the new President -- the test of this will be Republican determination to shrug off the political cowardice that has dominated the Senate and eliminate the idiotic 60 vote in favor of a normal 51 majority
TRADE is the linchpin to foreign policy
GVI Trading john bland 19:44 GMT November 13, 2016
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GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +67% from +67% late Thursday.
EURUSD MACRO statistical Bias: DOWN
Spot EURUSD: 1.0843
Paris ib 17:54 GMT November 13, 2016
Trump Turns Conventional Wisdom Turned on Its Head
"Close the southern border. Cancel NAFTA. Get rid of Obamacare. Induce corporations to close their factories in Third World hell holes and come back home. Lay on tariffs. Outlaw special-interest lobbyists. Reform the tax system. Set term limits on Congress. Take people in inner cities off Welfare by giving them good jobs. Root out terrorists at home and abroad. Refrain from making foreign wars. Somehow fire all federal employees who are useless and just taking up space. End Common Core. Build a wall."
Trump's laundry list
JEddah Abb 14:25 GMT November 13, 2016
Science of Trading
Agree jay ..that why i make my aporoach btween trading and first law of thermodynamic ..
GVI Trading john bland 14:08 GMT November 13, 2016
WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
No Major Data
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW
10:00 EZ- GDP
13:30 US- Retail Sales
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- EIA Crude
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ final HICP
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Economic Testimony
13:30 CA- CPI
- The markets already have been pricing in the new Trump presidency, even though his administration will not be installed for another ten weeks. He is inaugurated on January 20, 2017. In the meantime, the existing government remains in place, which means nothing is going to change for a good while. Nevertheless, markets are a discounting mechanism and will be anticipating the economic changes they feel will be made by the new government, even though we do not even know yet who will be in his cabinet.
- Markets are expecting a strong fiscal stimulus from the new administration in the way of infrastructure spending, encouraging energy production and a reduction in government red tape. The initial expectation has been that increased economic growth will lead to rising interest rates and stock prices.
- Higher bond yields have already started to do the job of monetary policy "normalization" for the Fed. They no longer have to worry about another "taper tantrum" if the hike rates on December 14, and will likely speed up the pace of interest rates in the new year until they have reached what is perceived to be an appropriate level. The central bank happily will follow the lead of the "bond vigilantes".
- The calendar in the new week is a full one. There is a steady stream of key data releases, but none are likely to change the direction of the markets. One highlight could be The Yellen testimony Thursday which could provide an "indirect" first Fed reaction to the Trump election.
John M. Bland, MBA
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
GVI Trading Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT November 13, 2016
Science of Trading
Trading is a science. It is not gambling or speculation. While looking at a screen, price action can often seem random but there is a logic to it. Once you understand the logic and why markets behave the way they do, you are on your way...
Science of Trading
Amsterdam NordFX 09:55 GMT November 13, 2016
Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 14 - 18, 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- In anticipation of the US Presidential election, most experts simply refused to make any predictions on USD pairs. However, in the medium-term forecast, expecting the victory of Hillary Clinton 85% of experts predicted growth in the dollar and a decline of the EUR/USD pair. As a reminder, during the entire second half of October, forecasts were based on the pair's progress to the level of 1.0800. Come November 8, Donald Trump becomes President of the United States and the pair quickly climbed 300 points to the level of 1.1300. Then, as if his rival won the election, it collapsed just as quickly, reaching the trough at 1.0830 on Friday;
- Similar forecasts and uncertainty were observed with respect to GBP/USD as well. As a result, in spite of the American election, the pair managed to hold out in the corridor of 1.2350-1.2550 for most of the week. Only at the end of the week, having broken through the upper boundary of the channel, it went on northward. As a result, whilst the election led to the dollar strengthening against the euro, it also led to it surrendering to the British pound;
- USD/JPY. Speaking about the future of this pair, 70% of analysts predicted growth of the pair to the 106.00-107.00 zone, which is what happened: it is in this range that the pair finished this hectic week;
- More than 90% of the experts believed that the USD/CHF pair should certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agreed with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target. This forecast can also be considered fulfilled: having survived the first shock of Trump's election, the pair returned to the set trend, reaching the resistance of 0.9820 by Thursday. It then broke through it to approach the level of 0.9900.
Forecast for the upcoming week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:
- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. But most experts have an opposite opinion: about 70% of them believe that the pair should return to the level of 1.1000. Graphical analysis found a compromise between the computer and the human mind - it indicates an initial fall of the pair to the level of 1.0800, followed by a rise to 1.1055. After that, according to its forecast, the pair will go down again to the support level of 1.0850. As for analysts, when giving their medium-term forecast 70% of them named the zone of 1.0600-1.0750 as the trough;
- Analysts are split exactly halfway on the future of GBP/USD. 50% of them, in full agreement with the indicators, say that the pair will target the 1.3000 mark. The other half expects it to descend to the support in the area of 1.2380. As for the readings of graphical analysis, they suggest that the pair has reached its local maximum and is now expected to fall. The support levels are 1.2380 and 1.2150;
- Experts expect a decline for the pair USD/JPY as well. According to the vast majority of them (90%), the pair should go down to the zone of 104.00-104.50. However, developments of the political situation in the United States and the statements of the new President Elect will certainly influence local trends;
- And finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. This time, experts have shown a striking unanimity - 100% of them have pointed to the north, calling the height of 0.9950 the immediate goal. However, graphical analysis on H4 says that before starting to climb, the pair may stay in the side channel 0.9810-0.9910 for some time.
Roman Butko, NordFX
Notice: These materials should not be considered a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.
#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options
PAR 08:07 GMT November 13, 2016
Glass- Steagall Act
If Trump and Republicans as promised reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act the Dodd - Frank is no longer needed and the US banking system would become extremely save .
dc CB 03:51 GMT November 13, 2016
Not so fast bunkey. Bitzi and I have a few cards left to play.
Forty-six of the electoral college votes President-elect Donald Trump won on his way to a resounding 306 to 232 electoral college victory over Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton came from three states where his combined margin of victory was only 108,600 votes.
Funny how in HER last days of campaiging she raked Trump over and over and over again because he said he would decide on whether he would "accept" the election after the voting was done.
War of the Roses
Haifa ac 02:56 GMT November 13, 2016
Trump beat 18, already. They should quit while they are behind.
dc CB 01:05 GMT November 13, 2016
Billionaire Globalist Soros Exposed as Hidden Hand Behind Trump Protests — Provoking US ‘Color Revolution’ … Billionaire globalist financier George Soros’ MoveOn.org has been revealed to be a driving force behind the organizing of nationwide protests against the election of Donald Trump — exposing the protests to largely be an organized, top-down operation — and not an organic movement of concerned Americans taking to the streets as reported by the mainstream media. -Free Thought Project
Defeated Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton is not about to «go quietly into that good night». On the morning after her surprising and unanticipated defeat at the hands of Republican Party upstart Donald Trump, Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, entered the ball room of the art-deco New Yorker hotel in midtown Manhattan and were both adorned in purple attire.
These two initiatives are separate but together they indicate considerable planning and foresight, One way to look at them is as a formidable reaction to an unexpected Trump victory. Another way is to see them as a planned reaction to a Trump victory that was actually preordained. Everything was prepared, in other words, and now the trigger has been pulled.
Anti-Trump US Color Revolution Includes Soros and Clinton ‘Purple’ Takeover?
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 27 May 2019
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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