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Forex Forum Archive for 11/15/2016

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GVI Trading john bland 21:34 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

US Weekly API Crude




ALERT
Reportedly +3.700 mn vs. +1.300 mn exp (EIA)



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 21:10 GMT November 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading

yellen usually is more dovish than the mkt expects. disappointed more times than england at the world cup. could see some usd profit taking but youd expect them to buy the dip. now that yen back under 10925/30 you dont expect a close abv there in the time thats left. its the 38.2% of 99/126, so a big deal lt. a wkly close abv brings on 11145, the prev lt high.

GVI Trading john bland 21:08 GMT November 15, 2016
Dollar hits at 11-month high after upbeat U.S. data -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar rose on Tuesday to an 11-month high against a basket of currencies as a surprisingly large gain in October U.S. retail sales lifted bond yields to 10-month peaks and supported the outlook for an interest rate increase next month.

An early tapering of the surge in U.S. yields tied to President-elect Donald Trump's election win spurred traders to scale back their dollar holdings. But the greenback pared its losses after the release of retail sales figures revived selling in bonds.

"It's more a pause day, perhaps marking a period of consolidation for bonds and the dollar," said Omer Eisner, chief market strategist with Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington..."

Dollar hits at 11-month high after upbeat U.S. data -- Reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 21:02 GMT November 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading

November 17 Testimony - Chair Janet L. Yellen
The Economic Outlook
Before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, U.S. Congress, Washington, D.C.
10:00 a.m. ET

GVI Trading john bland 20:53 GMT November 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


GVI Trading Statistical Market BIAS Indicators--
The Fed Funds Market Sentiment Barometer reflects current sentiment about a future change in Fed policy. Odds for one rate hike by yearend are: +75% from +75% late Monday.

EURUSD statistical Bias: Down

GVI Trading john bland 20:39 GMT November 15, 2016
Wednesday Trading
Reply   


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-Nov Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- EIA Crude
17-Nov Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ final HICP
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Economic Testimony
17-Nov Fri
13:30 CA- CPI


Trading Themes--
  • What looked to be a consolidation market Tuesday in EURUSD saw the USD strengthen vs. the EUR on the back of a stronger than expected U.S. Retail Sales report. These data were from before the Trump presidential victory last week. U.S. equities, except for the dow, put in a positive performance depite growing concerns that euphoria over the Trump election has seen markets getting ahead of themselves.

  • The Trump administration will not be installed for another two months. His inauguration is on January 20, 2017. At this point though we still know little about who will be in his cabinet.

  • Odds strongly favor a Fed hike rate hike on December 14. I feel also they will speed up the expected pace of interest rate hikes in the new year. The central bank happily happily follow the lead of the "bond vigilantes". Fed Chair Yellen testifies before a joint Congressional committee on the economy Thursday.

  • Markets are expecting a strong fiscal stimulus from the new administration in the way of infrastructure spending, lower taxes, increased energy production and a reduction in government red tape. Increased economic growth is expected to lead to rising stock prices, higher interest rates and a stronger USD.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk On

GVI Forex Blog 20:29 GMT November 15, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

Paris ib 20:17 GMT November 15, 2016
Rouble Getting Belted

And the Rouble outperforms just about everything. :-)

Paris ib 20:12 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Meanwhile the 'elites' hold their back room meetings. What a world.

london red 20:09 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

clearly the fx mkt isnt interested. every lets entertains the straw clutching for a moment. another 2 years of uncertainty. because the remainers can try as they might, but the worm has turned, globalisation is on a downward slope and every coming election is going to vote against it with ever stronger majorities.

GVI Forex Blog 20:06 GMT November 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On

GVI Trading 19:50 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Supreme Court Judge Hale warns of possible 2 year Brexit delay if court requires 'comprehensive' legislation to trigger Article 50 - press - govt may have to pass Great Repeal Bill before triggering Article 50; bill is not planned to be introduced until after May 2017- Supreme Court hearing will begin on 5 December.

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Provo John 19:47 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

Brexit could be delayed by months, even as long as two years, after a Supreme Court Judge suggested that "comprehensive" legislation was required to trigger Article 50.

See sky news.

uk nf 19:41 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

WTF in cable? Any news out?

Paris ib 19:27 GMT November 15, 2016
Bond Market Dummy Spit

The dangerous game:

The upshot

Paris ib 19:12 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

"If rates continue to rise it won't just be bond prices that will collapse. It will be every asset that has been priced off that so called "risk free rate of return" offered by sovereign debt.... All of the asset prices negative interest rates have so massively distorted including; corporate debt, municipal bonds, REITs, CLOs, equities, commodities, luxury cars, art, all fixed income assets and their proxies, and everything in between, will fall concurrently along with the global economy."

Michael Pento on rising bond yields

Paris ib 18:09 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

Depends on how much the FED prints to finance the 1 trillion Trump plan. Enough printing and you have the risk of hyper inflation. But hyper inflation might not be a global phenomenon. It normally is contained in the country responsible, take Brazil or Argentina or Zimbabwe.

Israel Dil 17:49 GMT November 15, 2016
Trump, the last comment
Reply   
us president elect has direct holdings in more than 500 companies... watching what the investment portfolios of previous presidents did during in office, none went back in capital size, just something to watch

Israel Dil 17:44 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

eur/usd sub parity during December? earlier? later?

London AzaForex 17:31 GMT November 15, 2016
Strategy and research analyst on currency pair USDCHF 11-15-
Reply   


Buy USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Strategy and research analyst on currency pair USDCHF 11-15-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

nw kw 17:09 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

heat map turned cadchf

Livingston nh 17:03 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

Beginning of November last year WTI was about $46 - a 2 day rally based on the "possibility" of OPEC agreeing on a freeze or even a cut that won't be effective until early Spring -- watch the BH rig count and keep in mind that PIPELINE is easy infrastructure decision (not Govvie money) for new Prez

nw kw 16:54 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

commodities have a cheaper china, reversal support, stronger aud as a result.

Israel Dil 16:51 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

inflation? - global hyper inflation more likely...

Paris ib 16:47 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

John I have no idea what is going on with commodities right now, we have had quite a lot of everything. But if OIL goes up so does inflation. Bonds are already selling off. I think we need to wipe the slate clean here. Next year will be a break from everything we have seen these past five years IMVHO. Currency implications? To be advised. The dust has got to settle and we ain't there yet. Not by a long shot.

nw kw 16:45 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

pit. oil paradise range trading.

london red 16:45 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

relative to everything else thats gone up it was cheap. i was watching earlier and thinking 3% today is too late to jump in, i will buy the pullback tom. well there u go...

GVI Trading john bland 16:43 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

I posted yesterday that Cramer said yesterday the big OPEC meeting on November 30 is already a bust with Iraq, Iran, Russia and the Saudis producing all they can.

I was surprised to see WTI higher today.

Paris ib 16:41 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

OT think it's more than short covering... 4.5 percent up in one day? Whoa. Russia's pay day....

london red 16:40 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

if thats what you are arguing with trump, i would assume all of this infrastructure investment and construction would require an increase in oil consumption. i wouldnt be surprised to see it at 50 at some stage this year. esp if mkt holds on this this reflation theme.

Israel Dil 16:39 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

$70+++ that's the play, geo political chaos to take control of the trading theme

UK OT 16:38 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

Traders and analysts also pointed to a report from Monday about a last ditch effort by OPEC to bring the world's top producers together to rein in production, saying it triggered a wave of short covering... reuters

Livingston nh 16:35 GMT November 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

John - any thots about a dovish Yellen trying to balance odds of a hike?

Paris ib 16:34 GMT November 15, 2016
CRUDE

What is happening to OIL?

Livingston nh 16:34 GMT November 15, 2016
Monday Trading

JP - USD/JPY stretched far enough above its 21 dma to take some off the table -- may not get much of a price correction but maybe a time correction until Yellen // 107.5 to 108 accumulate?

GVI Trading john bland 16:33 GMT November 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Market watching 10-yr note today as it consolidates around 2.20%. Equities trying to consolidate their post-Trump gains. Worry is that the markets might be getting ahead of events on the ground. USD is holding onto its gains.

GVI Forex Blog 16:29 GMT November 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Israel Dil 16:26 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

john

with 1% of people living is USA kicked away by Trump, so you see any impact on US GDP numbers?

GVI Trading john bland 16:24 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Atlanta Fed GDPNOW 4Q16 GDP forecast 3.30% vs. 3.10% on Nov 9.

Source: TTN

Kl Shawn 16:18 GMT November 15, 2016
Monday Trading

JP, expecting to get into pullbacks. No doubt still higher levels to be seen, so long as no weekly close below 106.80.

Israel Dil 16:18 GMT November 15, 2016
Monday Trading

jp

usd/jpy is actually CNY/JPY proxy for now, after discovering the sweetness of Chinese buying Made in Japan you can be assured that BoJ is deeply in the game. put USD/JPY USD/CNY CNY/JPY on your screen, what you see?

london red 16:17 GMT November 15, 2016
Monday Trading

10925/30 is a tech fib which might hold it up for a while same as 10850/58 did. but u will get many buying dip as specs caught long yen (ie short usdjpy). anything close to 10650 they will kill themselves to buy.
as for cable seems imaginary hand holding 12380. does look to be base building but no tail on hour candle.

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT November 15, 2016
Monday Trading

Mtl JP 13:26 GMT November 14, 2016
Monday Trading: Reply
well usd has the bid for at least a trio of perceived reasons.
odds are:
- usdyen goes further North
- usdcad continued BoD
- eurdlr maintains sell rallies bias

-------------------------------------------
usdyen at practical 109
tactical views from here on appreciated as I think downside odds increasing now.
tia

london red 15:59 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

solid short pos is still sup cable but long wick on hour bar means might be able to run some stops under 12380 sup.

Israel Dil 15:54 GMT November 15, 2016
the real news about Europe
Reply   
in the city of Belgium as Trump calls it or Brussels as commonly known, real shaking event took place today but somehow not in the headlines yet...

Belgian police used tear gas and water cannons against 8K demonstrating Belgian soldiers... yes, that's not a joke!

total reset is near ;-)

london red 15:49 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

bali if goes up at all abv 10757/68 will likely see trade within last weeks range. if not will hug low. thats what happens if doesnt part fill range it goes sharply other way. so far wkly bar not big. prob 107 is the marker although i hear barrier there not significant so prob more a psychological trigger for folk. swissy sitting at top of recent range where kept in check a number of times over last few months (parity). and bonds not moving now means nothing can go. maybe thurs or fri a move as normally is the trend.

nw kw 15:47 GMT November 15, 2016
Buy usdcad?

if players are a majority backing cad and usa gov. cadjpy will help me see usajpy structure.

Bali Sja 15:39 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

Viies, usdjpy is up. I dont think euro will see 1.0850 unless usdjpy tanks 1-2 figs...all IMO

london red 15:31 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

heading lower into half hour. needs time to spike up off lows otherwise still dwn.

GVI Forex Blog 15:27 GMT November 15, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 16 November 2016
Reply   

November 15, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 16, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- Employment
  • North America: US- Mortgages, PPI, Industrial Production, NAHB Index, EIA Crude

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
16-Nov Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- EIA Crude
17-Nov Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ final HICP
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Economic Testimony
17-Nov Fri
13:30 CA- CPI

GVI Data Calendar for 16 November 2016

Israel Dil 15:24 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN

hi shalom!!!

how many Chinese officials paid money to purchase US overseas assets and what's the rate of foreign officials spent money to purchase assets in China?

therefore, it's all noise and wars are part of it, what story makes better than war to believe that total reset is about things to work right the next time? - side effect is that during war times the overwhelming majority can't see that the powerhouses actually doesn't change.

london red 15:20 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

had every chance to go lower with yen but didnt. abv 10757/68 might squeeze them but u cant wait for that to open. but once beaten then as u say a gap fill is poss.
10yr looking constructive for 2.15-17 as long as lodays low is taken (double hourly wicks)

Tallinn viies 15:13 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
Higher low compared to previous day is in place. now higher high is needed to turn this ship around for few days. 1,0850 possible even today...
more likely within next 24 hours.

london red 15:02 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

in add. closing at hour low suggests nxt bar will move lower. if early in hour then trade can work. if falls late in hour then same again. we go lower. so to enter this trade wud like to see 40 traded by bottom of hour.

GVI Trading john bland 15:02 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Business Inventories August 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. 0.00% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


london red 15:00 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

standing aside at 80 waiting for 30-40 prev highs. too many fades ahead of 80 and rebounds.

Mtl JP 14:50 GMT November 15, 2016
Buy usdcad?

down to 1.3480ish

Bali Sja 14:48 GMT November 15, 2016
Buy usdcad?
Reply   
JP. Buying big usdcad now 1.35 is flashing?

Bali Sja 14:45 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN

Red i would not bet on the euro to hold low. Momentum-wise it is just a matter of time before 1.04 is seen and finally parity. Momentum is very good this time and players are caught heavily long euro now paying the price.

london red 14:34 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN

arguably trump election has caused biggest fall in yuan and devaluations elsewhere.
lets see what happens at euro low. tested close to 107 yest. if cannot break today might see gap filled and trade into last wks range, if not then likely gap not filled for a while and lrg downside into fri.

Livingston nh 14:30 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN

PAR - but everything else in the Chinese basket has weakened against the USD so it is just balancing??

Paris ib 14:29 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN

"global currency devaluation efforts are hurting the U.S. and costing American jobs, Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump told CNBC".... so what happens next?

Trump on the Yuan

PAR 14:26 GMT November 15, 2016
YUAN
Reply   
The greenback continues to gain strength on expectations of higher interest rates under Trump, pushing the yuan to a near 8-year low and taking its losses so far this year to more than 5%. The People's Bank of China set its daily fix at 6.8495 yuan against the dollar, compared with Monday's 6.8291 yuan, marking the weakest fix for the currency since 2008.

london red 14:25 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

this is why im not sure the bond mkt breaks its trend before next year. certainly they will sell rallies bvut 2.38 shud hold on wkly/monthly closing basis. if not then u have to go with the break.

Paris ib 14:18 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

nh I think it all depends on how things develop from here. I'm taking the view that we will really know only after January 20th. For now we have market uncertainty, a bit of panic and a market which is overwhelmingly on the same side of the trade. This should not really have been allowed to happen but we have all the crazies in charge of Central Banks around the world so it did happen. The bond market still has the potential to explode.

Livingston nh 14:15 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

ib - it would be a problem if rates were rising and the USD was weakening - check rate levels last year before the Fed hiked -- this isn't any different yet

LONDON SFH 14:10 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

The volatility is somewhat scary when caught up in it I have to say...we can compare it to 1994 when the surprise Fed hike unravelled bond mkts....the Buba kept on easing and German curves steepened massively...I think for different reasons we have a similar situation here
14:10:01 Showing my age now

Paris ib 14:09 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

nh yes sir. The market was out of sync with reality and negative yields are a bad joke. The question is: how big is that exit door and who is holding the bid apart from the FED?

Livingston nh 14:08 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

There is a general sell-off in gov bonds -- even JGBs are out of neg yield // there is a shortage of USD in many countries so they have to sell off treasurys to raise cash so it becomes a rate cycle -- EM is looking at inflation as USD runs higher

Treasurys have been much too expensive (the deflation myth) so the market is adjusting to current reality

Paris ib 14:07 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

SFH agree... and we are going into year end and thin trading conditions. Personally - and I admit it - I haven't the stomach for this.

LONDON SFH 14:06 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

ib....Totally agree...very early days....I don't feel the Chinese have reacted at all yet but whilst their gunpowder is dry it is without a doubt ample and Trump will need to treat carefully in his dealings with them...We still have some retracing to do in order to get USTs anywhere near a reasonable valuation...if we get overshoots then it can really hit levels not seen in decades

Paris ib 14:03 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

SFH you also have the Chinese out there with a huge stash of Treasuries and the FED holding the fort. A lot is at play here. And seriously if we have a big turning point then the economic and financial landscape which we will have in a few years could be very different from what we have now. But it's early days...

LONDON SFH 14:02 GMT November 15, 2016
Bonds
Reply   
US Bonds today are treading water and trying to have a consolidation day to remove the oversold momentum indicators but I think that we won't be seeing 1.70% in 10y US yields again during a Trump presidency and that the whole world is reassessing the value of US bonds...ultimately impacting the $.

london red 14:00 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

sfh its the usjgb spread thats initially driven the move on expectation of fiscal spending >> inflation. whether we get it is to be seen but mkt prices in in advance as always and if dont get it it will flip other way.

Paris ib 14:00 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

red... brave new world or not? We shall soon see. If it is this is like one very big, very important turning point.

london red 13:58 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

we have had a huge move in bonds. if its going to stay within longterm downtrend it will reverse shortly. we may have seen the high on yields already (2.30% on the 10). but if we break 235-238 we go to 270 and maybe 3% this year, an even bigger move than on trump. so imp not to get carried away after such a big move already.

LONDON SFH 13:57 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

I think the JPY move is partly behind it but I am not sure if the Japanese are actually selling or just not buying as much yet....if they were to actively sell I think the selloff would be more pronounced

Bali Sja 13:55 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

You just have to buy usd on dips everyday. Nothing can derail that until year end

LONDON SFH 13:52 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

ib

I think the USD is reacting to other forces but agree the UST selloff is more of an exodus..tho a small trickle so far....

london red 13:52 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

only yen seeing new low but most reflective of em

Paris ib 13:50 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd

U.S. bonds still getting sold off... FWIW

I remain of the view that this selling is NOT necessarily in fact is probably NOT USD positive once you get out of the short term time frame.

What we have is exodus. Explain to me why THAT is positive USD.

Short term... the market does what the market does.

london red 13:50 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

flip has been flipped. the fade faded. bonds after rebounding now back at uk session lows. clearly some folk worried this is the real thing and sold the bounce. hourly close abv 10858 tgts 10920/30. 10yr 2.28 to watch abv there 2.30 test then 235-238

Tallinn viies 13:47 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
US bonds squeeze is most likely over. so think it is time to try long euro again. bought at 1,0737 with stop at 1,0687. target 1,0800

Paris ib 13:47 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The improbability drive moving towards... normality? Looks like we might be moving away from all the excitement... so retrace AGAIN. Still the transition period might throw up all sorts of things. Stay tuned.

:-)

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

voter Tarullo yaks at top of the hour
something "on the economy"
personally do not expect much of a reaction from players

GVI Forex Blog 13:44 GMT November 15, 2016
Breaking News: U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations
Reply   

U.S. headline Retail Sales stronger than expected.

Breaking News: U.S. Retail Sales Beat Expectations

london red 13:35 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

folk late to party will have bought usd and sold bonds on this. spikes now reversed. a move on bonds to hod will run stops.

GVI Trading john bland 13:34 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Retail Sales beat expectations.

london red 13:33 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

usd taking a breather. data gd but i doubt will see new lows. need to wait for yellen.

GVI Trading john bland 13:32 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Advance Retail Sales October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+0.80% vs. +0.60% exp. vs. +0.60% (r +1.0% )

x-autos & gas: +0.60% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (+0.50%)



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Import Prices October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Empire PMI November 2016

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
+1.50 vs. -2.60 vs. -6.80 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 13:26 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

6 sigma USDCAD Friday range
1.3730 1.3014

SaaR KaL 13:25 GMT November 15, 2016
Gold

Will buy a call on 6 sigma close friday
1,345.2978 1,222.4540

strike 1220 is in the money by Friday at 1:36 odds if less then 2 bucks

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

usdcad BoD against 1.35-ish give or take
trgt 1.38+ (.7250 cad/$ and ultimately 0.70)

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Mark Carney has challenged politicians to implement ‘major’ structural economic reforms.

Otherwise, we could be stuck with low interest rates for decades.

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Carney is losing his "rockstar"
"central banks not to blame for rising inequality"

Carney live

GVI Trading john bland 13:04 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Fed's Rosengren
-- December rate hike looks "plausible".

>> TTN

GVI Trading john bland 12:38 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

DAX -15
DJ +2
SP +2

10-yr 2.214% -0.3bp

SaaR KaL 12:34 GMT November 15, 2016
Gold

USDJPY friday close extremes

107.1548 100.4034

GVI Trading john bland 12:27 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

(slightly delayed)
BOE Carney:
-- UK inflation to go up
-- Pass thru of inflation from lower pound likely substantial
-- Will accommodate inflation overshoot if caused by slack, exchange rate
-- Watching UK inflation expectations closely

>> wire service

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:45 GMT November 15, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting
Reply   

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.


Open invitation -- all are invited to attend

(Note Amazing Target at 1.0767 reached)

Amazing Trader Live Meeting: Tuesday, November 15

07:00 - 07:30 EST (12:00 - 12:30 GMT).

Meeting url: https://www.gotomeet.me/JayMeisler

Regards

Jay Meisler

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:11 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading

Amazing Trader updates post on GVI Forex:

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Amazing Trader levels updated

No reaction to EZ data.

EURUSD (1.0799) is getting its bid out of tis main crosses, creates tug-of-war for the dollar. 1.08 is clearly pivotal. 1.0817 = HOD, 1.0820-25 guards JP's gap. Downtrendline on 5 min targets 1.0780 while it holds.

Register for the Amazing Trader

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1.0780 target reached, confirms break of upward momentum 1.0767 next support so expect 1.0780 to be the level that dictates whether 1,08 or 1.0750 at risk.

london red 11:04 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

12330-38 was a real struggle to breach but where would your stop go, under 12295 would be best. so better to break trade into 2 a close to 1 fig stop not acceptable when mkt could fail at 200hma test. i always start with the stop, if its unshielded i cant make the trade.
euro. shud gain sup from 10768/57 prior to retail sales. 10yr spread has been narrowing here in line with drop from 50% fib (euro) so not without due cause. however they may pause ahead of data. data expected to beat so they faded morn bounce may take some profit ahead.

kl shawn 10:45 GMT November 15, 2016
sell gold
Reply   
going short 1227.12, stop 1232, target open

kl fs 10:43 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

adding:
it is also being daily bollinger band mid band

kl fs 10:43 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

red on second look, i think 1.2340 maybe a strong magnet
so 1.2350 stop may not be good

london red 10:17 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

as long as no proper bounce first then can buy that sup. if they do a good bounce first then come dwn sup is compromised. doesnt mean it wont hold but makes it messier. staying below 12448 is ok.

GVI Trading john bland 10:12 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Eurozone 3Q16 GDP unrevised.

GVI Forex Blog 10:08 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey Mixed
Reply   
German ZEW Survey. November data mixed.

BREAKING NEWS: German ZEW Survey Mixed

kl fs 10:08 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

red, still looks unconvincing to me
maybe another move down first to really test it

GVI Trading john bland 10:04 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

no changes in GDP revisions.

london red 10:03 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

just missed test of sup, but if moves anywhere near 200hma will have to count as a test. input prices v high so put upside pressure on prices, they arent stupid. for topside 125 becomes key a a move abv 12477 indicates a test of the former.

GVI Trading john bland 10:03 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

no changes in GDP revisions.

GVI Trading john bland 10:03 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Eurozone GDP 3Q16

Global-VIew EZ and German Charts





Data News ALERT
qq: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% (r ) prev.
yy: +1.60% vs. +1.60% exp. vs. +1.60% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


target="_blank">Eurozone GDP Data

GVI Trading john bland 10:02 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Mixed German ZEW Survey. Current conditions misss. Expectations beat.

GVI Trading john bland 10:00 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

German ZEW Survey November 2016




NEWS ALERT

Current Situation: +58.8 vs. +62.0 exp. vs. +59.5 prev.

Economic Expectations: +13.8 vs. +7.80 exp. vs. +6.20 prev.

RELEASE: German ZEW Survey


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Trading john bland 09:57 GMT November 15, 2016
Tuesday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
15-Nov Tue
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 DE- ZEW
10:00 EZ- GDP
13:30 US- Retail Sales
16-Nov Wed
09:30 GB- Employment
13:30 US- PPI
14:15 US- Industrial Production
15:30 US- EIA Crude
17-Nov Thu
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ final HICP
13:30 US- CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- Yellen Economic Testimony
17-Nov Fri
13:30 CA- CPI


Trading Themes--
  • Financial markets appear to be in a consolidation frame of mind early Tuesday as there has been a risk that euphoria over the Trump election has seen markets get ahead of themselves. Markets have been actively pricing in the Trump presidency, even though his administration will not be installed for another two nonths. His inauguration is on January 20, 2017. At this point though we still know little about who will be in his cabinet.

  • As for the Fed, odds strongly favor a Fed hike rate hike on December 14. I feel also they will speed up the expected pace of interest rate hikes in the new year. The central bank happily happily follow the lead of the "bond vigilantes". Fed Chair Yellen will testify before a joint Congressional committee on the economy Thursday.

  • Markets are expecting a strong fiscal stimulus from the new administration in the way of infrastructure spending, lower taxes, increased energy production and a reduction in government red tape. Increased economic growth is expected to lead to rising stock prices, higher interest rates and a stronger USD.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk On

kl fs 09:39 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

good call red, cable is falling as expected

GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Inflation Softer
Reply   
U.K. Headline y/y CPI softer than expected. GBP down.

BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Inflation Softer

GVI Trading john bland 09:32 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

CPI softer than expected

GVI Trading john bland 09:31 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.K. CPI October 2016

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

CPI m/m: +0.10% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
CPI y/y: +0.90% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.00% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


GVI Forex Blog 09:28 GMT November 15, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-On

SaaR KaL 09:26 GMT November 15, 2016
cable

Red
I am so bullish cable long term
i think in general 1.20 to 1.18 area
will be many years low

SaaR KaL 09:24 GMT November 15, 2016
Gold

DJI For friday
19,012.7303 17,875.7621
Oil
49.7749 42.6203

london red 09:19 GMT November 15, 2016
cable
Reply   
uk cpi coming up. a lot saying inflation will shoot up due to falling pound. already up sharply since summer, but october may have seen a slowing. think some one off events (retail discounting) may cause cpi to stay at 1% y/y. so cable may fall initially, but think they buy the dip. 12380~ stop under 12350.

SaaR KaL 09:09 GMT November 15, 2016
Gold
Reply   
Trying to establish a future date close range
now set at sigma = 5 ---> 1/5^2 odds i am wrong = 1:25
Friday for gold
1,335.1264 1,229.6459
EURUSD 1.1229 1.0697
Cable 1.2641 1.1656

so better long and eurusd then messing with cable

london red 09:02 GMT November 15, 2016
continuing usd pullback

every chance if interest rates continue current path. for now tho i think a pullback (which will be bought). we need to see 10yr break 2.38% and this pair can move much higher. st needs to move abv 10850/58 to test 110/111.

kl fs 08:57 GMT November 15, 2016
continuing usd pullback

red, what is the chance of usdjpy hitting 110?

london red 08:56 GMT November 15, 2016
continuing usd pullback

euro. 10816 is 50% of recent fall. nxt res would be yest high/prev bottom 10841/50/52. needs to move under 10757/68 to estblish downside.

nw kw 08:50 GMT November 15, 2016
GBPJPY is a dangerous level

chfjpy on r in range that's how long I'm bin tracking big move

SaaR KaL 08:44 GMT November 15, 2016
GBPJPY is a dangerous level
Reply   
GPJ/JPY easily can drop to 122 then keep north rally into 180
USDJPY as well
easily into 100

london red 08:19 GMT November 15, 2016
continuing usd pullback

folk are caught long yen abv the 200dma so will buy every pullback, so despite spreads coming back in a bit today, usdjpy well bid. however i do feel we will get a bit of downside created by one way 0or another, but as i say they will kill themselves to buy the dip since specs are positioned the wrong way. euro needs to beat yesterdays high 10841 to change trend.

kl fs 07:32 GMT November 15, 2016
continuing usd pullback
Reply   
usd pullback underway for deeper levels today, not sure if this is actually developing into a trend towards december fed decision

Singapore 06:52 GMT November 15, 2016
audusd

AUD/USD today's Exchange Rate is 0.7535.

Our Recommendations:
AUD/USD is going down and is recommended to sell.

Get The Live Forex Signals With 3 Days Free Trial Offer @http://www.mmfsolutions.sg/services/forex-pack/

Goh

Haifa ac 04:56 GMT November 15, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

"Obama news conference continues"

CONDESCENDING--that is the one word that described Potus final news conference

'Reality has a way of asserting itself!' Condescending Obama says Trump can't keep his promises as he warns his successor's 'temperament' will be his undoing unless he 'corrects' it

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3936210/Reality-way-asserting-Condescending-Obama-says-Trump-t-promises-warns-successor-s-temperament-doom-unless-corrects-it.html#ixzz4Q34Z60Hg

what an oaf.

kl shawn 04:56 GMT November 15, 2016
cable
Reply   
short 1.2482, tp 1.2465
scalping mode

Tallinn viies 00:35 GMT November 15, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
closed euro long ar 1.0764.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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