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Forex Forum Archive for 11/18/2016

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GVI Forex Blog 23:16 GMT November 18, 2016
Double-Edged Sword: Yellen And Trump Drive Dollar And Bond Yields Higher
Reply   

John M. Bland, MBA

Fed Chair Yellen Confirms Rate Hike
In testimony to a joint committee of the House and Senate, Fed Chair Yellen signaled that the central bank will likely be hiking its Fed Funds target by 25bps to a range of 0.50% to 0.75% on December 14. Although she was not explicit, in the context of her testimony the markets interpreted her comments as a clear rate hike signal. A rate hike had not been in doubt even before Donald Trump had beaten Hillary Clinton for President. However the view at that time was that it would be "one and done" because they felt Clinton would not be pursuing a strong pro-growth agenda...

Double-Edged Sword: Yellen And Trump Drive Dollar And Bond Yields Higher

GVI Trading john bland 20:43 GMT November 18, 2016
Commitment Of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for EUR COT Details






Click on chart forJPY COT Details



X+++++
Net GBP and CHF COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details


Net AUD and CAD COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




G+++++

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil


Net Crude, Gold, S&P and 10-yr Positions







Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details










Click on chart for COT Details




GVI Forex Blog 20:30 GMT November 18, 2016
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   



Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format

CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database

GVI Forex Blog 20:12 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

GVI Trading john bland 19:58 GMT November 18, 2016
Dollar strongest since 2003; bond selloff resumes -- reuters.com
Reply   
"The U.S. dollar climbed on Friday to its highest level since 2003 on continued bets on faster inflation and higher interest rates, while Treasuries resumed a selloff that left benchmark yields on track to post their steepest two-week increase in 13 years.

A growing perception that the economic policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will lift consumer prices pushed the dollar higher, weighing on crude and other commodities.

On Wall Street, the tech- and biotech-heavy Nasdaq Composite hit a record intraday high before slipping lower. The Dow industrials and S&P 500 were also near record highs despite the day's decline..".

Dollar strongest since 2003; bond selloff resumes -- reuters.com

GVI Trading john bland 18:57 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

WTI traders use rig count increase as an opportunity to buy. Next big OPEC meeting is on November 30.

GVI Trading john bland 18:05 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

decent jump in rig count

GVI Trading john bland 18:03 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:


US Weekly Baker-Hughes Rig Count

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
Total (inc gas) U.S.: 588 vs 568 (+20) prev
US (oil): 471 vs. 453 (+18) prev

Canada 184 vs. 176 (+8) prev



TTN: Live News Special Offer

London AzaForex 17:51 GMT November 18, 2016
Strategy and trading analysis on shares of the company Alcoa
Reply   


Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Strategy and trading analysis on shares of the company Alcoa 11-18-2016 by AzaForex forex broker

london red 16:56 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

euro double hourly low making a go of it but needs to clear 10608 to have any chance but littered res all way up 21/30/44/58. they shud sell all blips until they dont but youd expect the bonds to give u a clue.

london red 16:54 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

bonds v close to last major high have nowhere to go 2.358 2.377 are the monthly highs abv there 2.50 then 2.65 on the road to 3

GVI Trading john bland 16:42 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

Stocks taking profits into the weekend. Bond yields up (prices down).

GVI Forex Blog 16:37 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mild Risk-Off

london red 16:33 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

10yr us tnx trades at 23 for first time. pulling back a bit hourly close with good tail will signal higher, if not high might be in.

dc CB 16:27 GMT November 18, 2016
In Her Dreams: Said she intended to serve out her term, which ends in 2018

Are Gammy Yellen and her yapping Dwarves proving themselves irrelevant? How about Mario Draggie? They speak and the markets continue on their merry way, wiping out trillions in wrong way positions. But Hillary(the Globalist) was Supposed To Win!!!!!

GVI Trading john bland 16:19 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

NY Fed Nowcast 4Q16 GDP +2.4% vs 1.6% on 11/4

Source : TTN.com

dc CB 16:14 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Next week in US, basically 2 1/2 trading days. M, T, Wed 1/2 then off to Grandma's for turkey. Holiday tradition SToX up-flat, never sell off.

Trump's 1st Win. Ford's CEO say they will NOT move passenger car plant to Mexico.
Trump names Sen Jeff Sessions as Attny Gen, Rep. Mike Pompeo as CIA director, Gen Mike Flynn as Nat Security Advsr.

(PS as far as is known, no one from CitiBank sent a cabinet "list" to Trump Tower/////SARC)

GVI Trading john bland 15:46 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Dudley:
-- Markets pricing for government stimulus; higher rates
-- unconcerned about market expectations about policy

>> TTN.com

GVI Trading john bland 15:40 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Looking back at the daily chart, 1.0451 is the final recent support all the way back to 2003.

GVI Trading john bland 15:39 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Same as yesterday. No EURUSD bids after short-covering has run its course. Keep a eye on equities...

GVI Trading john bland 15:28 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Iraqi Oil Minister:
-- Oil output cut differences narrowing
-- Optimistic deal will be reached

>> TTN

GVI Forex Blog 15:17 GMT November 18, 2016
GVI Data Calendar for 21 November 2016
Reply   

November 18, 2016 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 21, 2016.

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- 2-yr

WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
21-Nov Mon
No Major Data
22-Nov Tues
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Nov Wed
00:00 flash Mkt & Service PMIs
13:30 US- Durable Goods
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- New Home Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
24-Nov Thu
00:00 JP/US- Holiday
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
25-Nov Fri
09:30 GB- GDP
16:00 US- Early Close

GVI Data Calendar for 21 November 2016

GVI Trading john bland 15:04 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Leading Indicators October 2016

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 14:40 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

bonds making acomeback usd downside not done yet but u feel in any case euro hindered given prox of italy vote. reassess at 10658/60

PAR 14:35 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

Sold everything , flat for weekend . Of to the mountains . Have a nice weekend .

Paris ib 14:33 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

And I don't think it can be done.

Paris ib 14:32 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

The way for the U.S. to default is through a massive devaluation.

PAR 14:29 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

Now we start talking $ trillions and in a few year $ zillions ?

Remember one thing Trump said . Debt can be restructured , not paid , paid back in monopoly money etc .

LONDON SFH 14:29 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Now that was a falling knife,,,,,

Paris ib 14:26 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

PAR - maybe to the power of a billion !!! Thing is when these things blow the fall out can be perverse. Not such an easy prediction.

london red 14:26 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

yen bounced off 10975 now shudnt revisit if to travel higher. 11035/37 is a couple of fibs if can clear shud be able to rerun at 11060-85 zone again.
euro needs to see under 10596 to tgt 80 and 60 if breached.

Paris ib 14:25 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SFH - During the European bond crisis one guy told me all his customers were buying German bonds. The BUY at the time was Portuguese bonds. I mean if you wanted to make any money. :-)

PAR 14:24 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

Absolutely . Mathematics of the Trump economic plan don t add up . Too much debt , adding more debt can not be sound whatever funny econometric model you run to predict it will be good in the long run . LTCM revisited .

Paris ib 14:24 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SFH - makes for a tricky market. Still think into year end: follow the trend. Don't care, don't think and take your profits where you can. Next year we all get to sit down and look at what exactly has been going on here.

LONDON SFH 14:21 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ib... Many of them are Swiss but the rest are Euro based....theyre bond funds who have to look more at index based returns so their investing style is, imho not exaclty clever but more actuarial and less efficient...But their flows are there and they will not be swayed quickly...but I agree with you in time....question is when!

Paris ib 14:20 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

Say it quietly PAR but I think you can make the case that the whole global financial system is a big mess. We don't know where the next leak will spring but we are sitting in front of a cracking dam.

PAR 14:18 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

Today . At new record highs in USA , take profit on US and European stocks

Next week is another story . Italian referendum will come more into focus . Italian banks are a big mess but as long as Draghi keeps buying packaged NPL s it looks ok .

Paris ib 14:18 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SFH - fine. But then your customers probably don't think that their USD denominated bonds are going to fall in value. So they think the sell off is over. Either that or they are going to hold to maturity and don't care. Essentially then they are buying the currency not the yield. I mean what kind of duration are they buying? Are these people market to market in pounds? Practically any foreign investment by a British based investor this year would have made money.

LONDON SFH 14:15 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ib...last 5 minutes...funny!


I know an awful lot of my customers who have stopped investing in EUR bonds now as they can't get any yield and have shifted to investing in USD bonds so whilst I agree with your sentiment and logic, it isn't actually happening yet and I don't think the UST buying is purely speculative

Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT November 18, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
I guess daily top should be in place at 1,0640/45. now time to test lows. target 1,0540

Paris ib 14:05 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON

What's your time frame PAR? Are you talking the last 5 minutes?

PAR 14:03 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
Stocks up , bonds up , base metals up , crude up.

Paris ib 14:01 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Bonds in the U.S. and elsewhere will only be a BUY when yields STOP rising. At that point the sell off has ended. That has not yet happened. The relationship with the USD and capital flows is - if anything - way premature if not misguided.

Paris ib 13:59 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

SFH - rising yields are not attracting capital. Nobody is attracted to a market which is tanking. Yields are rising because the bond market is tanking. What is happening is that traders are buying USDs on spec. Assuming that higher yields are equivalent to higher short term interest rates. In the early 1980s when the USD did rise - under VOLKER - with short term rates being hiked aggressively capital was drawn in, basically in to deposit accounts (which do not carry asset risks). The bond market is a whole other animal. Rising bond market yields can be ASSUMED to be the same as sharply rising short term rates but they are not.

LONDON SFH 13:55 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

ib- Is there such a thing as a non issue any more? It will be a while before the rising yields of the US stop attracting capital....the world's other CBks are too busy trying to keep theirs down so I feel we need to wait until there is some end in sight with QE or some really bad trade disgreements with the US before it turns the $......and as I said earlier Feb 18th....long way off still :)

Paris ib 13:50 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

The reformist referendum in Italy - which is attempting to eliminate a bicameral system and replace it with just a one chamber parliament - is a big NON issue. The media can beat it to death but it is still a non issue. What we have now is the idea that soaring bond yields in the States are somehow attractive to offshore capital. Come on guys buy some falling assets. Buy our bonds now before they get even cheaper. Yeah I get that. Not. Anyhow the market can do stupid for a considerable time so don't stand in front of a train.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Keynes

london red 13:43 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

always healthy to get a retracement but still think it will be under pressure into italy referendum. after that brexit should take hold again until spring when you have dutch french and then german elections later in year

LONDON SFH 13:40 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

hearing corporates bot eurgbp... liquidity thin

GVI Forex Blog 13:36 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Mixed To Soft
Reply   
Canada: Headline CPI in line and BOC Core CPI soft.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada CPI Mixed To Soft

Paris ib 13:35 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

Never happened before? Seriously the Euro has never had ten straight down days? Even during the Greek bond crisis, the European bond crisis and the GFC? I find that hard to believe. What's their point? That the losing streak is over extended and a rebound is likely?

These journalists. Not content with getting EVERY prediction wrong go on to make these kind of nonsense articles. How they keep getting paid is beyond me. Does anyone still read the FT and take it seriously? It has been a publication which has been losing money for a long time and that is no surprise. Pearsons is still a major textbook printer though. More easy money and all those unsuspecting heads to fill with nonsense.

GVI Trading john bland 13:31 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

a touch soft

GVI Trading john bland 13:30 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices October 2016

Canada Data Charts





NEWS ALERT
Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.70% vs. +1.80% exp. vs. +1.80% prev.
Headline
mm: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy: +1.50% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 13:24 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

10yr filled gap to 228 the high of yestersdays TNX session, so if bonds to sell of again could be here. below 2245 prob no return today.

london red 13:20 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

eurgbp bottomed and thats what stopped cable see 1.20 on this euro run down. sup 12296 and 12250/60. if no daily close under 12330 will likely bounce (this was prev high which hampered former rallies so acts as sup). as long as euro stays under 10660 will be temporary bounce. if abv u have a st bottom. maybe resell at 108 then.

Israel Dil 13:17 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

the most amazing coincidence is that Soros and Rothschild finance the same NGO'S worldwide. Trump mentioned Soros few times during the debates. at the other hand, some very powerful close to Trump finance NGO'S who stand 180° away from Sotos/Rothschild.

it's reasonable to consider that bonds are at the very beginning of their crash, even very very beginning.

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 13:10 GMT November 18, 2016
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Now GBPUSD extends slide after EURUSD did not reach 1.0650. Look at EURGBP. All covered in our daily meeting.

Singapore SC 13:10 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Any news in cable? Bottom fell out of it.

LONDON SFH 12:58 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

All Trump wants is for the EU states to pay the NATO requirement for defence.....NATO requires member states to pay 2% of the their spending on defence.... A lot pay less

Kl Fs 12:54 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

Would be nice if next week we somehow reverse everything and end up pre us election level. That will make one hell of a market

Israel Dil 12:52 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

sfh

fortunately or unfortunately, Trump is dead serious about making EU to pay for "defense services", that's going to make DB style bailouts across Europe bit more difficult and for sure bonds are did only the snack before the meal until now.

Putin steps down, is it the war hero from Tula going to make Europe to pay big time back by halting their economies as revenge? sci-fi or reality in the making?

PAR 12:45 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

The euro is on a record losing streak. Light selling on Friday has the single currency down 0.1% at 1.0615 against the dollar and on track for a 10th straight day of losses, something that has never happened before, according to the Financial Times.

LONDON SFH 12:42 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

Dil

French bonds have crashed already... I feel Juppe most likely to win myself but im no expert in French politics

The mkt can't ignore the Le Pen risk as a real one given the black swan events of 2016 but it is too early to trade on it...recent selling in French bonds has been flow-driven and not election worries...before that we get Italian referendum, Austrian elections, Dutch elections as well as God knows what from the Fed and ECB.
This wk end we get the first round of selection for the only likely winner of the election in France. The Socialists are unelectable and so whoever wins over this and next wk end will be the victor vs Le Pen...The only caveat is that if Sarkozy wins over the next 2 weekends there is a better chance of a Le Pen win and those effects would be dramatic...

nw kw 12:38 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

French trade with gbp

Israel Dil 12:36 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

SFH

Brexit didn't happen, Hillary voted for presidency and French bonds can't crash... that's your world, as always, let's see ;-)

what's your call for the coming French elections?

PAR 12:34 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
US stocks to open higher on continued Trump induced optimism . What a difference with pessimistic Europe .

Draghi saying that European economy cannot function without permanent aide from ECB.

LONDON SFH 12:32 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

Dil

French bonds MAY crash? Given they've cheapened to bunds by about 20bp recently id say you need to clsoe your barn door

Israel Dil 12:29 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

iphone made in USA

Apple could make iPhones in US in future: sources

GVI Trading john bland 12:12 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Earlier Bullard said he was "leaning" towards supporting a December rate hike...

Thanks for that guidance!

GVI Trading john bland 12:10 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

I almost fell off my chair laughing at the Bullard comments below!

GVI Trading john bland 12:08 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Bullard:
-- What causes problems in policy is surprises relative to market expectations
-- communications key for central banks

>> wire service

london red 12:04 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

yen maybe 11145 prev high a bridge too far. sup at 10975 if broken means you can forget a new high today. Further sup at 10923 and 10850. If broken today u have high for year. Watch the 10yr

Kl Fs 11:58 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Paris, ib maybe usd reversal comes early...like today? ;)

GVI Trading john bland 11:56 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

DAX -27
DJ -18
SP -3

10-yr 2.316% +3.7bp

PAR 11:55 GMT November 18, 2016
Crude
Reply   
Crude moving higher on optimism over OPEC deal to limit production and boost prices .

Israel Dil 11:55 GMT November 18, 2016
Russia
Reply   
continues claims that Putin plans to step down. who are going to play the role of the Chechens this time?

GVI Trading Jay Meisler 11:53 GMT November 18, 2016
Amazing Trader Meeting
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For those not attending our meetings, we have been all over the dollar uptrends as the Amazing Trader continues to act as a roadmap and provide structure to trade it on all time frames. This is why we call it the Amazing Trader.

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HK [email protected] 11:34 GMT November 18, 2016
Mike Pence, looks more presidentiable than Donald Trump.
Reply   

Bad omen for Trump. SO.....

Expect the unexpectable.

PAR 11:29 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB - Stability Pact
Reply   
Now that the ECB stability pact is de facto dead and most european governments no longer care about deficits Euro interest should move higher and negative rates make no sense .

Israel Dil 11:26 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP

before end of 2Q/17 Trump's administration should be done with the new and completely different healthcare system.

nw kw 11:22 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

CNY holds xagmxn for stability, if soft cheaper

Israel Dil 11:09 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

John

latest CNY drop promises tough negotiations and sort of FORD/LINCOLN "victory" for Trump. at this moment the Chinese seems playing their hand very smart.

Israel Dil 11:05 GMT November 18, 2016
GOLD
Reply   
accumulate and HOLD...

can't see gold trading sub $1120

GVI Trading john bland 11:05 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Will the Obama administration step in to cap the USD if the current rate of increase continues? Its a caretaker (lame duck) government now and do they want to "help" Trump who wants to bring jobs home?

PAR 11:03 GMT November 18, 2016
RISK ON
Reply   
Draghi and ECB intervention managed to stabilize bond markets .

Israel Dil 11:02 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

French bonds may crash towards th coming elections... roughly 6 months ahead

Paris ib 11:00 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

I like it. Precision. :-))

LONDON SFH 10:59 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

February 18th

Paris ib 10:58 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

January?

Paris ib 10:58 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

PAR you are just guessing. If the analysts talking about DE globalisation are right what you are going to have is capital STAYING at home and/or being repatriated. That ultimately is bullish for European bonds and Japanese bonds (which are the areas supplying that capital - the areas with massive current account SURPLUSES0 and extremely bearish for U.S. bonds and ultimately the USD. When they talk about current accounts coming back to balance that means no more money for nations running current account deficits. Countries like: the UK, the US, Australia.... make your own list. Real capital flows determine currency fluctuations in the medium term.

GVI Trading john bland 10:57 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

At what point will a rising USD and bond yields put a brake on Stocks??

Paris ib 10:55 GMT November 18, 2016
USDJPY

sja.... stocks peak, USD peaks.... not so sure about bonds. We could be in for a reversal. Thing is we probably have to wait for the inauguration for anything to really get going. But that is a pattern we often see.... extremes into end year and then major reassessment when everyone gets back to work.

PAR 10:54 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB

Italian and Spanish banks hit hard by falling bond prices . This may be reason of ECB intervention .

GVI Trading 10:52 GMT November 18, 2016
Dollar charges to 14-year high, bonds in full swing -- Reuters.com
Reply   
"The dollar scaled to its highest level in almost 14 years against a basket of currencies on Friday, while U.S. bond yields were set for the biggest fortnightly rise in 15 years on bets U.S. inflation and interest rates are headed higher.

A growing perception that the economic policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will push up consumer prices helped put the dollar on track for its biggest two-week rise against the Japanese yen in almost 30 years..."

Dollar charges to 14-year high, bonds in full swing -- Reuters.com

Israel Dil 10:49 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP

it may mean that Italian politicians expect Trump to comment about impenetrable parts of Merkel...

PAR 10:49 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB
Reply   
Mega bond buying intervention ongoing . Bund at new daily highs .

PAR 10:46 GMT November 18, 2016
ECB - Stabolity Pact
Reply   
ECB Weidmann .

European commission basically given up enforcing Stability Pact .

Tallinn viies 10:31 GMT November 18, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
got short euro at 1,0620. stop at 1,0670. target 1,0525 for today.

bali sja 10:20 GMT November 18, 2016
USDJPY

ib, what do you think will happen in January?

Paris ib 10:18 GMT November 18, 2016
USDJPY

We often reach extremes by year end. January will be fun.

Paris ib 10:18 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP

Here is the full list of Trump’s top position candidates.

And some comment

PAR 10:17 GMT November 18, 2016
USDJPY
Reply   
Next focus of attention 112.50 .

GVI Trading john bland 10:05 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

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Amazing Trader GBPUSD charts updated on your systems

PAR 09:55 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP
Reply   
At least Trump is a specialist in - Non Performing Loans -which can not ne said about European central bankers or politicians .

GVI Trading john bland 09:53 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

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Amazing Trader EURUSD charts updated on your systems

Paris ib 09:48 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

No worries. :-)))

london red 09:25 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

make sure you are flat in that case!
cable res at 12445/50 and 70. shud keep it honest ahead of massive 1.24 expiry today.

Paris ib 09:23 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

red well I won't. :-))

london red 09:20 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

paris there are no thin mkts, volume is low as its mostly specs. if the break come they will be trading on xmas day if they have to.

Paris ib 09:15 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

red... end of year thin market conditions, some panic fired up by the partisan press and Trump could have a very interesting inauguration on his hands. Never say never. Not this year.

Paris ib 09:13 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP

Good comparison. FWIW under the first Berlusconi administration the Italian economy did extremely well.

london red 09:12 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

if they break it will happen very quickly, just look at how the market reacts these days. how do you think it will react when you get the first higher high in yield for 20 years. thats why its probably not going to break 235-238 on this run as you need to be sure if going up to 3% cant do it on campaign promises and talk alone.

PAR 09:12 GMT November 18, 2016
TRUMP
Reply   
Italian politicians compare Trump to Berlusconi .

Paris ib 09:12 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS

The market to watch PAR is Treasuries. This is where this started and that is the market which is leading this trend.

Paris ib 09:11 GMT November 18, 2016
Lastest Trump Appointment

US, Russia, Europe need to fight ISIS together – ex-DIA chief Flynn... note the difference in coverage. The pro-Clinton mob just don't give up.

Michael Flynn

PAR 09:07 GMT November 18, 2016
BUNDS
Reply   
German bunds at high of day after ECB buying and some hedge funds front running ECB . mama mia .

Paris ib 09:06 GMT November 18, 2016
Lastest Trump Appointment
Reply   
Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn

National Security Advisor

GVI Trading john bland 09:05 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

Draghi comments today were mostly dovish. He is still worried about inflation (deflation). The post-Trump global rise in interest rates cannot help, but the stronger USD reduces the need for additional ECB monetary stimulus.

bali sja 09:04 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend

sooner or later guys will realize that there is no way out but to keep printing money for CBs, neither Trump nor Hillary would change that

Paris ib 09:04 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

parabolic red? Hope not. Yeah this could take a long time but I don't see anything out there likely to stop this recent sell off. Normalisation could get ugly. Central Bankers of the world sent to jail? Hope so. :-)

london red 09:03 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading

euro. might seel selling at minor fib at 10620. as long as 10632 not breach still for lower. any higher and test of 10660/65 broken channel.

Paris ib 09:02 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend

Morning SFH.... yeah. I think predictions are useless right now. You have two choices: go the short term trade and don't fall in love with a position. Or stay out. Because I don't think anyone knows how this is all going to play out in the longer term. Plus I don't think those pushing for more globalisation and more international trade... blah, blah, blah are just going to curl up into a ball and die. So the game is not over by a long shot. Everything is in a state of play. So no big pronouncements from me. We just don't know how all this will go.

On the positive side Trump just appointed a national security advisor:

General Michael T. Flynn who, although he is a Democrat, was Trump’s main advisor on foreign policy and defence during the campaign.. the best ally for peace in the Middle East.

The end of the Puritan ideology?

GVI Trading john bland 09:01 GMT November 18, 2016
Friday Trading


WEEKLY HIGH IMPACT NEWS:
17-Nov Fri
13:30 CA- CPI

21-Nov Mon
No Major Data
22-Nov Tues
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23-Nov Wed
00:00 flash Mkt & Service PMIs
13:30 US- Durable Goods
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:00 US- New Home Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Minutes
24-Nov Thu
00:00 JP/US- Holiday
09:00 DE- IFO Survey 25-Nov Fri
09:30 GB- GDP 16:00 US- Early Close


Trading Themes--
  • In response to testimony yesterday by Fed Chair Yellen bond yields have risen further. As a result, the USD has risen. This could create some headwinds for equity prices. It also could adversely impact Donald Trump's efforts to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

  • Thursday Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen appeared that to confirm market expectations for a rate hike on December 14. During and after her testimony, yields on the U.S. 10-yr note rose and the EURUSD steadily fell. She also said she intends to serve her complete term until early 2018.

  • Another USD positive was the Bank of Japan announcement that it was conducting its first operation to cap JGB rising yields by buying bonds. It tries to cap the 10-yr JGB at 1.00%. Sovereign bond yields globally have been rising in the wake of the Trump victory.

  • The Obama Administration is in a lame duck status, but might have to deal with the rising USD. The Trump administration will not be installed for another two months. His inauguration is on January 20, 2017. At this point though we still know little about who will be in his cabinet.

  • Today sees only Canadian CPI figures in the way of key data.

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founder Global-View.com


CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

PAR 09:00 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend

Non performing loans are still a huge problem 8 years after the financial crisis .

How is that possible ? Has everybody in Europe been sleeping for 8 years? Budget deficits are exploding again leading to more non performing loans .

ECB story is becoming a spaghetti western .

london red 09:00 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

just filling opening gap paris lets see after that

any bond breakdown will take days/weeks not years. it will be everyone heading for the exit at once. the higher up the fast we will get as so far long term holders that bought at higher yields havent sold, they will not pass up higher returns unless they see the end of the bull run. 235/238 250 266 304 after that parabolic.

LONDON SFH 08:55 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend

ib-morning

Interesting thoughts.....I agree with much of what you've written but think this is a game that plays out over an extremely long period...clearly those that adjust and position will have to ride out some rough shfits to keep in those trades...

PAR 08:53 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

ECB buying bonds while Draghi is speaking in a well organized act of market manipulation .

Aparatski are ordering to buy massive amounts european bonds .

Paris ib 08:51 GMT November 18, 2016
Bond Market Dummy Spit

Don't worry PAR there will be no negative rates soon enough. German bond yields still negative out to 7 years. 30 year German bond yield at just under 1 percent. U.S. 30 year yield at 3 percent. All rising. And until yields STOP rising you don't buy bonds. These markets are in sell off mode. So currency implications are NOT clear even though - in the short term - the market is ignoring that fact. Won't last though. What you are seeing now is just speculative buying. Not real capital inflows.

GVI Trading john bland 08:48 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Equities mixed early as fixed income yields rise.

PAR 08:48 GMT November 18, 2016
Bond Market Dummy Spit

Draghi seems not to have noticed that the world has changed since the US elections .

Negative interest rates make no sense in this new environment .

GVI Forex Blog 08:47 GMT November 18, 2016
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets
Reply   

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Markets

Paris ib 08:44 GMT November 18, 2016
Bond Market Dummy Spit

No end in sight. Bonds keep getting sold. That small exit door again.

PAR 08:44 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi European banks are far from healthy . Non performing loans still a big problem .

PAR 08:40 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi trying to talk European bond markets higher as he looks at the ECB bonds book . He is getting nervous .

Paris ib 08:39 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend

The below came from Deutsche Bank c/o George Saravelos.

The new era... according to some

GVI Trading john bland 08:38 GMT November 18, 2016
BREAKING NEWS:

Draghi:
-- committed to sustained monetary accommodation
-- inflation way below ECB objective
-- to consistent strengthening of inflation

>> wire service

london red 08:36 GMT November 18, 2016
eurusd

10yr just a whisker under 2.35, im not sure they take it before the tnx trade begins in the afternoon. may get an opportunity to buy a minor pullback in usd.

Paris ib 08:34 GMT November 18, 2016
Deglobalisation: the New BIG Trend
Reply   
"de-globalization will shrink international trade imbalances. Because these are mirror images of international capital flows... Surplus nations such as Germany and Japan will have to spend more while deficit nations such as the US will have to pay more to borrow......The multinational business model is at particular risk.....de-globalization will put upward pressure on inflation, particularly when combined with large US deficit spending....While inflationary pressures will build, real estate will be an exception as property bubbles burst. One reason is restriction on foreign ownership. Canada, Australia and New Zealand have already moved in that direction.... From a macro perspective, a popping of the major house price bubbles would be consistent with converging current account imbalances. Note that the economies with arguably the largest bubbles also run some of the most extreme current account deficits."

You can argue this anyhow you like but if international capital flows stop nations with large current account deficits will be in trouble. The Anglo-Saxon model of economic growth: 'borrow other people's money and spend that' is at risk. Which means a major adjustment world wide.

bali sja 08:21 GMT November 18, 2016
eurusd

viies, you may have to chase it down
mine show high 1.06137 last spike

Tallinn viies 07:53 GMT November 18, 2016
eurusd
Reply   
euro is going to test 1,0520/25 today. will sell euros at 1,0615/20 with stop at 1,0665.

bali sja 07:13 GMT November 18, 2016
usdjpy
Reply   
looks ready to go higher into 111 handle

london red 06:45 GMT November 18, 2016
euro

euro. if below 10580 then 10560/65. below there we tests the two lows towards 105. only abv 10660 can say reversal.
yen. abv 11088 tgts 11145. lrg sup 10923.

Singapore 06:34 GMT November 18, 2016
usdcad

USD/CAD today’s Exchange Rate is 1.3546.

Our Recommendation:
USD/CAD is going down and is recommended to sell.

Get The Live Forex Trading Tips With 3 Days Free Trial Offer @ http://www.mmfsolutions.sg/services/forex-pack/

Goh

HK Kwun 04:15 GMT November 18, 2016
gold

gold
bali sja 03:29 GMT 11/18/2016
LOL Kwun, like nt said maybe it is the wife that brings bad luck..
he should find a wife like Melania
________________________________________________________
better find his follower, KL KL, bought gold at high level as well

singapore td 04:10 GMT November 18, 2016
usdcad
Reply   
JP, out of usdcad long, reloading later

bali sja 03:29 GMT November 18, 2016
gold

LOL Kwun, like nt said maybe it is the wife that brings bad luck..
he should find a wife like Melania

HK Kwun 03:25 GMT November 18, 2016
gold

gold
bali sja 03:07 GMT 11/18/2016
a lot of accounts are to be wiped out this round, yes we can!
________________________________________________________
account wipe out is no problem, because its one is demo account, can reset anytime. AND this stupid ab may come out to yell "did you remember I have short gold since 19xx, ROFL

bali sja 03:14 GMT November 18, 2016
euro
Reply   
will not be surprised to see a quick drop to eat all nervous belly button specs' stop
104-105 to be seen later? before the bounce
it is friday baby! the best day for such a move

bali sja 03:07 GMT November 18, 2016
gold

a lot of accounts are to be wiped out this round, yes we can!

bali sja 03:05 GMT November 18, 2016
gold
Reply   
1198 calling home later

HK Kwun 02:32 GMT November 18, 2016
hk ab's gold trading record!!!
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

hk ab 14:48 GMT November 11, 2016
gold: Reply
3rd armada account 1240.

hk ab 14:45 GMT November 10, 2016
gold: Reply
2nd armada ready.....
hk ab 14:33 GMT November 10, 2016
gold: Reply
buy gold with KL again, First Armada engine 1272.....
_____________________________________________

Now is 1206!!! This Otaku bought gold at $1272!!! Loss $60. Homebody, are you going to hide until gold back to 1272? How many armada engine are you holding? Keep posting your demo/fake trade. We all want to be your evidence.

dc CB 00:45 GMT November 18, 2016
In Her Dreams: Said she intended to serve out her term, which ends in 2018
Reply   
So are we to look forward to 12 more months of "Lucy pulls the football...Yellen cries wolf...Fed Mouths contradict each other and then themselves"

CORE CPI has been running Above 2% for 12 months...Unemployment has been Below 5% for the same period, if not more.

What's your Excuse for holding to your oh so tired Excuses, Ms. Yellen?
Donald, does his stuff: You're FIRED! :))))

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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